Sorry for two posts in one day

But with the local elections, the long wait for the result of the mayoral election and the unfortunate election of the British National Party to the Greater London Assembly there's been a bit of a backlog.

Aside from the UK elections this week also saw the release of the long awaited result of the Zimbabwean presidential election. These result have given Robert Mugabe (Zanu PF) 43.2% of the vote while his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC) received 49.7%. As both of these are below the 50% threshold required for victory there will now need to be a run-off poll to decide who will become the next president.

All this puts the MDC in an almost unbelievably difficult position because they now have to choose whether or not to participate in the run-off. If they choose not too Mugabe will stand unopposed and obviously win another five year term making him 89 years old at the time of the next election.

If however they choose to participate it is possible that it will take a full twelve months for the election to be held because the electoral commission will be able to argue that the violence perpetrated by Zanu PF supporters makes the country too unstable.

The MDC will have to consider that there is a very real possibility that they may not win this run off. Not because Mr Mugabe has suddenly become popular but because the MDC's election apparatus has been very badly damaged if not totally destroyed by the Zimbabwean police. Also there has already been a sustained campaign of punishment beatings against people who dared to vote against Mugabe in the initial election. This violence is only expected to intensify as the date of the second poll draws closer.

So as I have said this is not a decision I envy the MDC having to make because the choice appears to be a choice between possible violence and certain defeat or certain violence and possible defeat.

Obviously under these circumstances it would be very easy for them to choose not to contest the run off because they would be able to tell themselves that they are protecting their supporters from the wave of violence that a run off will bring, they will also be able to tell themselves that by cutting their losses and letting Mugabe win this election they will be allowing themselves and the international community to time to re-group. However there will be no opportunity for the Zimbabwean people to re-group and there is no guarantee that backing down will stop Mugabe taking revenge on on MDC supporters and the poverty, hunger and violence associated with the total collapse of the Zimbabwean economy will certainly not end.

This means, to my mind, that the MDC has no other option then to contest the run off because often fortune favours the brave.