Operation Featherweight: Month 57, Week 1, Day 3.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-57-week-1.html


In that post I looked at US President Donald Trump's announcement of December 19th 2018 (19/12/18). That US troops were to be withdrawn from Syria.

I particularly looked at how in terms of managing the threat posed by Turkey to the Shangri-La area of Syria this was a masterstroke on Trump's part.

In response to Trump's announcement the SDF immediately entered into negotiations with the Syrians. The main objective of these Russia brokered negotiations was to see either Syria or Russian troops take control of Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey.

Erdogan's justification for threatening Shangri-La, and other areas of Syria, has always been based on an extremely shaky premise. That the Arab majority SDF is in fact the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Which Turkey considers to be a terrorist group.

Therefore Turkey must be allowed to invade Shangri-La, like it has invaded the Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton areas of Syria. In order to remove the terror threat on Turkey's borders.

The prospect of Syrian or Russian forces taking control of Shangri-La's border areas completely removed the reasoning behind Erdogan's plan to invade.

So on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18) Erdogan was forced to postpone his planned invasion.

These Russian brokered negotiations between the SDF and the Syrians quickly developed into negotiations between Russia and Turkey. Over the fate of Shangri-La.

In those negotiations with Russia Erdogan moved quickly to try and leverage the fate of the Sudetenland against the fate of Shangri-La.

The Sudetenland: This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It is spread across four of Syria's Provinces covering an area of around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). It is centred around the city of Idlib.

The name is a reference to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

The Sudetenland has long been under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest (JAF) faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. Given their high public profile I hope I don't need to explain further who Al Qaeda are.

Al Qaeda's presence in the Sudetenland includes the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate like The Support Front the TiP are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda. 

Ethnically Turkish the TiP's focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. 

A second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider ISIL to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.

The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights during the winter 2017 but were stopped. 

While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the SDF. Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.

A third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.

A significant proportion of the Army of Conquest is made up of Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). At one point there were in excess of 7,000 of these FSA fragments so I won't attempt to provide a comprehensive list here.  

However some of the larger Islamist FSA fragments which are active within the Sudetenland as part of the Army of Conquest include;

The Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.

The Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.

Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.

The Army of Conquest also includes the irregular Turkish force, the United Turkmen Army (UTA). 

As within Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the UTA in the Sudetenland has grown to absorb many of the smaller fragments of the long defunct FSA such as the 1st Coastal Division. They now function simply as units of the UTA, under the direct command and control of Turkey.

There is also a small ISIL presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest. 

The Sudetenland was formally established under the Astana process on Syria.

The Astana Process on Syria is really the result of the economic marriage of convenience brought about by US-led sanctions on Russia. It brings together Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria to address the conflict in Syria. Often in the city of Astana, capital of Kazakhstan.

The Fourth Round of Meetings in the Astana Process took place in May 2017. This saw the establishment of four so-called; "De-Confliction Zones." Of which the Sudetenland was one.

The Sixth Round of Meetings in the Astana Process took place in September 2017. Here Turkey was granted permission to send a small deployment of regular Turkish forces (TSK) into the Sudetenland. 

On October 6th 2017 (6/12/17) this small deployment of TSK troops arrived in the Sudetenland. Establishing a network of small military bases, Control Points, along the boundary of the Sudetenland. In order to protect the Army of Conquest and ISIL from the Syrians and Russians.

That network of TSK Control Points across the Sudetenland remains in place. Currently numbering 12.

The reason why the De-Confliction Zones were created in May 2017 was to solve an inherent problem with the so-called; "Astana Ceasefire." This was established at the First Round of Meetings in the Astana Process which took place on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16).

The Astana Ceasefire excluded ISIL. It also excluded Al Qaeda. At Erdogan's insistence the Astana Ceasefire also excluded the SDF.

The problem has been the Army of Conquest. That is an Al Qaeda-led coalition. Therefore the question has always been whether the Astana Ceasefire excludes the Army of Conquest as a whole. Or whether it protects all the factions of the coalition with the exception of Al Qaeda.

Just prior to the Second Round of Meetings in the Astana Process Turkey made an attempt to resolve this question. By giving the impression that the Army of Conquest had split into two factions. One led by Al Qaeda and another entirely separate from Al Qaeda.

The Al Qaeda-led faction took the name; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."

The supposedly separate faction took the name; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."

In February 2018 there was a further attempt to pretend that the HTS faction was no longer part of Al Qaeda. 

This involved the creation of a third faction; "Guardians of Religion Organisation/Tanzim Hurras ad-Din" which attempted to claim the mantle of Al Qaeda's affiliate within Syria from HTS.

Tanzim al-Din don't seem to exist anywhere except for on paper and social media. For example on October 17th 2018 (17/10/18) the group released footage online of their fighters taking full control of the Sudetenland town of Saraqib.

The problem with this is that Saraqib is quite a large town. Not only is it home to numerous factions of the Army of Conquest it also has a large civilian population. Absolutely no-one on the ground saw any evidence of Tanzim al-Din being active there. Let alone taking complete control.

The effort to convince people of a split between the HTS faction and Tanzim al-Din has not been at all successful. Nor has been the effort to convince people of the split between HTS and JTS. Not least because the groups names are so similar.

So in August 2018 the JTS faction announced they were changing their name to; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW)." This was widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.

In order to disguise the fact they are an irregular Turkish invasion force the UTA like to call themselves the; "Syrian National Army (SNA)." Which gets extremely confusing due to Syria already having a national army.

This attempt to convince us of a division has been accompanied by periodic play-fighting between HTS and JTS.

Believe it or not much of this has been centred around the weapons trade. Or more accurately attempts to disguise the supply of weapons to Al Qaeda.

Obviously Al Qaeda are globally recognised as a terrorist group. Subject to a host of domestic laws and UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. As a result nations can't been seen sending weapons and other supplies to Al Qaeda.

Between 2011 and 2014 Erdogan actually thought he could get away with supplying weapons directly to Al Qaeda. However in January 2014 the Turkish police stopped a series of these weapons shipments by the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) to Al Qaeda in Syria.

Erdogan's response to this was to prosecute all the police officers prosecutors involved. Along with any journalists who dared to report on what has become known as the "2014 MIT Scandal."

So in 2014 then US President Obama set up the infamous "Train & Equip" program as an attempt to launder weapon shipments to Al Qaeda.

The weapons would be supplied to supposedly "vetted" Islamist FSA fragments within the Army of Conquest. Having been equipped with weapons those Islamist FSA fragments would then join Al Qaeda.

By late-2015 even this laundering mechanism had become far too blatant with high profile cases such as Division 30. So in October 2015 Obama was forced to scrap the Train & Equip program.

These days it's really only Turkey and Qatar who continue to support Al Qaeda. Even they are being forced to be more subtle.

Weapons are supplied to groups in the JTS faction who store them in a warehouse in a town. Groups in the HTS faction then 'attack' the town prompting the JTS faction to flee.

After the HTS faction have had time to move the weapons the JTS faction launch a counter-attack recapturing the town. Only to discover the HTS faction have left a lot of money in place of the missing weapons.

This play-fighting is also intended to reinforce the idea that HTS and JTS are separate from each other. Rather than allies. The problem is that both HTS and JTS frequently forget that's what they're supposed to be doing.

For example in October 2017 the HTS and JTS factions formed the joint; "Wrath of Mohammad Operations Room." To conduct combined offensives against the Syrians in both Sudetenland and the genocidal offensive against the Druze in the Golan Heights.

In the Sudetenland this resulted in the Syrians gaining the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.

In March 2018 the HTS and JTS factions formed the joint; "Wrath of Ghouta Operations Room." To conduct a combined joint offensive against the Syrians in the Sudetenland. That offensive though was repelled by the Syrians in the space of about a day. 

By August 2018 the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the entire Central Syria area. This seemed to set the stage for them to then move to liberate the Sudetenland from Al Qaeda.

This possibility was met with significant opposition from western nations. 

Under French pressure both the US and the UK joined a UNSC condemnation of such an offensive. France backed up this statement by deploying the Auvergene Cruise missile frigate to the Mediterranean. Ready to strike Syria if it moved to liberate the Sudetenland.

With the aid of this western support Turkey was able force Russia to announce the De-Militarised Zone (DMZ) plan for the Sudetenland. On September 17th 2018 (17/9/18).

This plan saw the establishment of a DMZ extending 15-20km (9-12 miles) into the Sudetenland. 

By October 15th 2018 (15/10/18) the HTS faction in its entirety was supposed to withdraw from the DMZ while the JTS faction was supposed to withdraw all of its heavy weapons. By the end of 2018 all elements of the Army of Conquest will have to hand control of the M4 and M5 highways back to the Syrian government. 

This plan was a complete failure. The JTS faction did withdraw their heavy weapons by October 8th 2018 (8/10/18). However the HTS faction made no attempt to withdraw from the DMZ. In fact they used the opportunity to reinforce and entrench their positions.

Due to Erdogan's attempt to leverage the Sudetenland against Shangri-La no-one ever got as far as discussing the handing back of control of the M4 and M5 highways.

On December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) Erdogan gave his strange speech. Publicly acknowledging that his justification for invading the Sudetenland had disappeared. While accusing the US of engaging in psychological warfare against Turkey and its people.

At the same time the HTS were announcing that five of its fighters had been killed in the Sudetenland town of Darat Izza. This sits at the north of the Sudetenland, around 30km (20 miles) west of Aleppo City. The HTS didn't openly accuse the JTS faction of the killings. Although that was the strong implication.

On December 29th 2018 (29/12/18) the JTS faction formally denied involvement in the previous days killings. However this did not stop the HTS faction beginning to mass its forces around Darat Izza.

On January 1st 2019 (1/1/19) the HTS faction launched an attack on the JTS faction around Darat Izza. This fighting between the two factions quickly spread across all of the Sudetenland.

To give you some context of the credibility of this fighting in June 2016 the Syrians launched their operation to liberate Aleppo City. 

Technically the Syrians were only trying to liberate the eastern half of Aleppo City, rather than the entire city. Even so the battle lasted for six months until December 2016, when the city was liberated.

In November 2016 Iraqi forces and CJTFOIR launched their operation to liberate Mosul. With victory finally coming in June 2017 it took nine months to liberate that one city. 

In June 2017 the SDF and CJTFOIR launched their operation to liberate Raqqa City. With victory coming in October 2017 it took four months to liberate that one city.

In September 2018 the SDF and CJTFOIR launched their operation to liberate the Hajin Pocket. A 350kmsq (210 milesq) area made up of 12 towns and villages. That battle lasted for five months and technically there are still final clearing up operations underway.

On this first day of play-fighting with the JTS faction the HTS faction captured eight towns and positions. Including Darat Izza, Kahn al-Asal and the Sheikh Barakat Mountains.

On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the play-fight was over. With the JTS faction formally surrendering and agreeing to join the HTS faction. In those nine days the HTS faction had captured no fewer then 70 towns, villages and other strategic locations.

The first specific group in the JTS faction attacked by the HTS faction was The Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). 

Nour al-Zinki's main military base was the Sheikh Suleiman/111th Regiment Base located around 4km (2.5 miles) south-east of Darat Izza. That was handed to HTS on January 4th 2019 (4/1/19).  

Nour al-Zinki's main headquarters was the town of Ayn Jarah, around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Darat Izza. That was handed to HTS on  January 5th 2019 (5/1/19).

Nour al-Zinki have been one the groups most heavily backed by western nations. Big recipients of weapons under former US President Obama's Train & Equip program. They were also the main group occupying East Aleppo City prior to its liberation in December 2016.

I don't think I need to remind you of how much western opposition there was to the liberation of East Aleppo. 

Back on October 8th 2016 (8/10/16) France tabled a UNSC resolution demanding an immediate halt to the operation. Despite that resolution failing to pass it did force the Syrians to halt their operation for a month.

This opposition was fuelled by a massive western propaganda operation in support of the "heroic defenders of Aleppo City. 

Much of this western media attention was drawn to the likes of Bana al-Abed. The 6 year old girl whose Social Media accounts were operated by her father and mother. Both fighters in Nour al-Zinki.

You would think then that the darlings of the west once again coming under attack, this time by Al Qaeda, would trigger a similar backlash and western propaganda operation.

As I've said the majority of the JTS faction simply surrendered to the HTS faction of January 10th 2019 (10/1/19). Fully rejoining the group under its command and doing away with the paper thin separation. 

On January 11th (11/1/19) HTS also confirmed that Tanzim al-Din were fully under its command and control.

However before then a small number of groups in the JTS faction fled north into the Turkish occupied Afrin Canton. Most notably Nour al-Zinki, The Army of Islam and the Rahman Legion. 

As a result there have been some sporadic clashes between HTS and the UTA. Across the Atmeh-Salwa Access area which marks the boundary between the Sudetenland and Afrin Canton.

For example on January 3rd 2019 (3/1/19) the UTA claim they repelled a HTS attack on the Deir Ballout Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) Camp. This sits just inside Afrin Canton, around 6km (3.5 miles) south-west of Jinderes City.

On the same day the Atmeh IDP Camp was caught in the artillery crossfire between the UTA and HTS. The Atmeh camp sits just inside the Sudetenland, around 2km (1.2 miles) south of the Deir Ballout IDP Camp.

On January 9th 2019 (9/1/19) the UTA shelled HTS at the Sheikh Suleiman/111th Regiment Base while the two clashed around Deir Ballout. Later the UTA captured Deir Simeon, 6km (3.5 miles) north of Darat Izza, before returning it to HTS.

Having fled the Sudetenland for Afrin Canton Nour al-Zinki has since been absorbed into the Rahman Legion. On February 7th 2019 (7/2/19) both the Rahman Legion and the Army of Islam were formally absorbed into the UTA, becoming it's 3rd Corp.

In that you have Erdogan's reason for engineering this latest round of play-fighting in the Sudetenland. 

He is hoping that in return for not invading Shangri-La Russia will allow Turkey to fully annex the Sudetenland as part of the New Ottoman Empire. Simply absorbing into the UTA.

Initially Erdogan seems to have had some success in this objective. 

There have been reports of the TSK preparing to expand their network of Control Points from 12 to 18. With the new bases being built along the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland. Around towns such as Abu Duhur. 

There have also been rumours of the TSK creating a 5km (3 mile) deep safe-zone along Turkey's border with the Sudetenland. In effect extending Turkey's territory 5km (3 mikes) into Syria's territory.

However Erdogan has also created a massive problem for himself. 

Al Qaeda are now indisputably in full control of the Sudetenland. There are no 'moderate rebels' there anymore. As a result there is no legitimate reason when the Syrians should be prevented from liberating the Sudetenland.

Having realised this late Erdogan has since renewed the effort to try and convince everyone that HTS and Al Qaeda are not one and the same organisation.

On January 31st (31/1/19) senior ideological figures within Al Qaeda, Abu Hammam al-Shami and Sami al-Uraydi released a joint statement condemning HTS. Particularly for working with JTS and allowing the partial reopening of the M5 Highway. They both pledged to continuing the; "True Jihad" with Tanzim al-Din.

In believing that Tanzim al-Din are a separate group from the HTS we have to forget that on January 3rd 2019 (3/1/19) Tanzim al-Din announced they were joining HTS. You would also need to forget that on January 11th 2019 (11/1/19) HTS confirmed that Tanzim al-Din were fully under their command and control.

Clearly that inconsistency occurred to someone. On February 1st 2019 (1/2/19), the day after the joint statement by al-Shami and al-Uraydi HTS and Tanzim al-Din staged a little play-fight at Maghara. By February 2nd 2019 (2/2/19) that little play-fight was over.

On February 7th 2019 (7/2/19) Al Qeada's global leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, lent his voice to efforts to convince us that HTS and Al Qaeda are completely separate. In a rare video message al-Zawahiri condemned the so-called "Arab Spring" in its entirety. 

Al-Zawahiri though was particularly critical of HTS. Condemning them as ideologically broken having allied themselves with secular Turkey. 

Helpfully making it appear as though HTS and Al Qaeda are separate. While making it appear as though HTS are Turkish allies who could easily be absorbed into the UTA.

Personally I think the only thing revealed in al-Zawahiri's statement was a worryingly high degree of collusion between the highest levels of the Turkish government and the highest levels of Al Qaeda's global leadership.

Due to the failure of the DMZ plan in October 2018 Russia, and particularly the Syrians have been keen to go ahead and fully liberate the Sudetenland. 

When the play-fighting between the HTS and JTS factions began the Syrians and Russians were actually conducting a joint operation against the TiP. 

In the TiP's main base of operations in the city of Jisr al-Shugour which sits within the DMZ at the south-western of the Sudetenland. This operation had to be stopped due to the HTS/JTS play-fight.

Since HTS took full control of the Sudetenland tensions have slowly been rising with the Syrians. With both sides claiming the other has attempted to infiltrate their lines and conducting artillery strikes in response. 

However nothing has yet elevated to the point it would suggest a large offensive by either side is imminent.

Although I am slightly worried that this could be the post which blows up in everyone's faces.

21:10 on 7/3/19 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 57, Week 1, Day 1.

Within Syria there continue to be five main areas of operations.

Reading from right-to-left;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

In the period between mid-December 2018 and January 2019 there were major developments in all five of these areas.

The most significant of these developments was US President Donald Trump's announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18). That US troops were to be withdrawn from Syria.

I covered this here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html

Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4_27.html

Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html

And here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-5.html

In terms of managing Turkey's threat to invade the Shangri-La area of Syria Trump's announcement was a massive success.

On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) Turkey's invasion of Shangri-La was imminent.

A combined force of 35,000 made up of the regular Turkish Military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA) had been assembled. Both on Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and it's western boundary with the Garvaghy Road area.

Training for that invasion force had been declared complete on November 30th 2018 (30/11/18). Preparatory shelling of Shangri-La had begun on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18).

On December 21st 2018 (21/12/18) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan suddenly postponed his invasion plan.

Shangri-La is currently under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition. Long ago they had learnt not to rely on either the US or the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

In August 2016 CJTFOIR, and particularly the US under former President Obama abandoned the SDF. It allowed Turkey to invade and illegally occupy the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La.

The last town in Garvaghy Road Turkish forces captured was al-Bab. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij. The SDF controlled town which marks the western boundary of Shangri-La.

When the battle for al-Bab began in November 2016 Erdogan made it quite clear that once the town had been captured the combined TSK and UTA force would move onto to attack Manbij. Including the SDF and CJTFOIR forces stationed there.

CJTFOIR was not prepared to protect either itself nor the SDF from this impending Turkish attack. So it fell to Russia and the Syrians to protect them from Turkey.

In late December 2016 Russia moved its military police and some Syrian troops into the town of al-Arimah. Which sits around 20km (12 miles) north-east of al-Bab and around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij.

This meant that if they wished to attack Manbij Erdogan's forces would first have to go through the Russian and Syrian forces at Arimah.

In January 2018 CJTFOIR again abandoned the SDF. It allowed Turkey to attack the SDF directly in Afrin Canton.

Again it fell to Russia and Syria to protect the SDF from Turkey. They moved their forces into the roughly 30kmsq (20 milesq) area around the town of Tal Rifaat.

Tal Rifaat is technically part of Afrin Canton. It sits on the boundary between the Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, Central Syria and Sudetenland areas. Around 4km (2.5 miles) south of the town of Azaz. Around 6km (3.5 miles) east of Afrin City. Around 8km (5 miles) north of Aleppo City.

This meant that if Turkey wished to attack the SDF in this Tal Rifaat Pocket they would first have to go through the Russian and Syrian forces deployed there.

So when CJTFOIR and the US appeared to abandon the SDF for a third time they immediately turned to Russia and Syria for support.

Within hours of US President Trump's announcement on December 19th (19/12/18) the SDF entered into Russian brokered talks with the Syrians. Initially at the Shangri-La town of Ayn Issa, around 80km (50 miles) north of Raqqa City.

These Russia, Syria, SDF negotiations continued through December 2018 into mid-January 2019. Amid various rumour and counter-rumour over their content and objectives.

The main objective of the negotiations though has been to see either Syrian or Russian forces take control of Shangri-La's western boundary with Garvaghy Road and its northern border with Turkey.

To this end on December 25th 2018 (25/12/18) a Syrian convoy of around 40 vehicles entered Arimah.

First in order to reinforce the line between Turkish forces at al-Bab and SDF forces at Manbij. Then in preparation for the possibility of control of Manbij being transferred from the SDF to the Syrians. 

These negotiations between the SDF, Russia and Syria have completely upended Erdogan's plans to invade Shangri-La.

The reason why Erdogan wants to invade Shangri-La is the same as the reason he's invaded Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton. While deploying a small TSK force to defend the Sudetenland.

Erdogan is trying to annex as much Syrian territory as possible as part of his New Ottoman Empire.

However even in the extremely permissive environment created by former US President Obama Erdogan can't just come out and say this.

Even the current UN Special Envoy on Syria Geir Pedersen would lose any credibility if he claimed his objective was a violation of the UN Charter. The same UN Charter which gives him any and all authority to act.

So instead Erdogan is claiming that the SDF is the same thing as the Turkish group the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Which continues to be listed as a terror group by both the US and the EU.

This is simply not true. The SDF is a coalition made up of Kurdish, Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. Due to the expansion along the Euphrates River and the inclusion of the local tribes the SDF is now actually a majority Arab force.

The Kurdish element of the SDF, the Peoples Protection Units (YPG) is entirely separate from the PKK. The fact that one is a group of Turkish Kurds while the other is a group of Syrian Kurds should be something of a clue that they are not the same group.

However with this false claim going unchallenged Erdogan has been able to claim that he needs to clear the SDF from Turkey's borders. In order to protect Turkey for; "PKK Terror!"

The SDF handing control of Shangri-La's northern border to either Russian or Syrian forces completely removes Erdogan's justification for invading Shangri-La.

The mere announcement of negotiations between the SDF and the Syrians immediately sent Erdogan into a massive panic spiral. One which was rather hilarious to watch.

It's long been accepted that if Erdogan believes even a fraction of the things he says then he's suffering from a severe form of mental illness. US President Trump's withdrawal announcement however not only left Erdogan sounding crazy but also looking pretty crazy.

At a public rally on December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) Erdogan admitted for the first time that the negotiations between the SDF and Syria completely removed his justification for invading Shangri-La. He went on to condemn Trump's withdrawal announcement accusing the US of engaging in; "Psychological Warfare."

This is the equivalent of Erdogan loudly asking the people around him if they think he is going mad. It's a few short steps away from Erdogan wandering the streets in his underwear screaming at passing cars about the CIA mind control rays.

On the topic of insane rants one of the most ludicrous response to Trump's withdrawal announcement however was that it was a massive gift to Russia. From a US President who we all know is secretly a Russian spy.

This is a theory that was particularly put forward by the Democrat Party Senator for Delaware Chris Coons. It certainly found a lot of traction in Muslim Brotherhood media outlets such as CNN and the Washington Post.

The truth is I can think of nothing Russia would want less than refereeing a dispute between Syria, the SDF and Turkey.

Russia and Syria have been allies since the Russian Federation came into being in the 1990's. Syria's alliance with the Soviet Union extends back far beyond that. Due to the pro-ISIL sanctions the US has been imposing since 2014 Russia has recently been forced into something of an economic marriage of convenience with Turkey.

Turkey wants to invade and occupy Syria. Annexing it as a province of Erdogan's New Ottoman Empire.

Syria doesn't want to be invaded and occupied by Turkey. It certainly doesn't want to become a province in Erdogan's New Ottoman Empire.

Trying to support both of these diametrically opposed positions puts Russia in a near impossible situation.

It is very similar to the situation Russia finds itself in over the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (NKR). This is one of the World's oldest frozen conflicts. Similar to the Kashmir conflict between Pakistan and India which has recently become somewhat less than frozen.

The NKR is a disputed territory between majority Christian Armenia and majority Muslim Azerbaijan. Russia is closely allied to Armenia and Azerbaijan. So when Armenia and Azerbaijan fight over the NKR it puts Russia in the near impossible situation of having to simultaneously support and oppose both sides at the same time.

In fact the last big round of fighting over the NKR came in January and February 2016. This occurred when Azerbaijan which is also closely allied to Turkey attacked Armenia which is most certainly not allied to Turkey.

It just so happened to occur when Russia/Turkey relations were at their all time lowest point. Following the Turkey's shooting down of a Russian Su-24 over Syria in November 2015.

It also happened to occur just before US Democrats started demanding ever tougher sanctions on Russia as part of their campaign to rig the November 2016 US Presidential Election.

As you could almost predict the Russian brokered negotiations between Syria and the SDF over Shangri-La quickly escalated into negotiations between Russia and Turkey over Shangri-La.

Erdogan immediately attempted to leverage the Sudetenland as part of those negotiations. Starting on December 28th 2018 (28/12/18). The same day he was starting to worry about the CIA mind control rays.

Frustratingly I will have to pick this up tomorrow.

19:05 on 5/3/19 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 5, Day 2.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/03/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html

In that post I looked at how Turkey has emerged a equal or greater threat than ISIL to Shangri-La. Both in terms of a guerrilla style insurgency and conventional military action.

I also looked at how, in the first instance, managing the Turkish threat to Shangri-La falls into the political or diplomatic sphere rather than the military sphere.

Primarily I looked at how managing the Turkish threat has fallen almost exclusively on America's shoulders, particularly those of US President Donald Trump.

It has been clear that the EU members of CJTFOIR have not been prepared to shoulder their part of the burden of managing the Turkish threat. In fact the EU has often chosen to side with Turkey against the US.

This is particularly true of France. It is also particularly true of the Sudetenland area of Syria.

The Sudetenland sits directly to the south of Afrin Canton. It is bounded on the south and the east by the Central Syria area.

In October 2017 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan dispatched the regular Turkish military (TSK) to the Sudetenland.

There the TSK established a network of small military bases known as; "Control Points." Over time that network of Control Points has expanded to 18. Their purpose is to protect the armed groups within the Sudetenland from the Syrians.

The problem with this is that the Sudetenland is now exclusively under the control of Al Qaeda.

On Friday, March 1st 2019 (1/3/19) the US offered a US$1m reward for information on the whereabouts of Hamza bin Laden. Son of Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. I assume this announcement was made with a heap of sarcasm.

It has long been widely rumoured that Hamza bin Laden is located in the Sudetenland. He has certainly released numerous audio messages calling for volunteers to travel to Al Qaeda's new global base of operations in the Sudetenland.

In March 2018 the Syrians were liberating the East Ghouta suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus.

This prompted Erdogan to try and rescue the Islamist groups in East Ghouta by transferring them to Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland. Specifically the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam groups.

Recently there has been a lot of western media interest in ISIL prisoners who have been captured by the SDF in Shangri-La. From the tone of this coverage it is quite clear that western journalists have no concept of what sort of group ISIL is and the severity of its crimes. Or are aware yet are choosing to cover it up.

For example, just yesterday, March 3rd 2019 (3/3/19) the BBC journalist Quentin Sommerville aired an interview with Yago Riedijk, ISIL fighter and husband of Shamima Begum. Also an ISIL fighter. Sommerville was keen to show his anger that Riedijk had married Begum when she was just 15 years old. In a clear attempt to portray Begum as a victim of exploitation.

Amid the Syrian and Iraqi media the big story of the weekend has been the return of 18 Yezidi children to their families. Having been rescued by the SDF from ISIL. These are the children the likes of Riedijk and Begum kept as slaves.

The Army of Islam consider ISIL to be far too moderate in their efforts to destroy minority groups such as the Yezidis. The Army of Islam have, in the past, executed members of ISIL for the crime of not being extreme enough.

You would think then that Erdogan attempting to grant sanctuary to the Army of Islam would trigger a massive backlash. Erdogan and the Army of Islam certainly thought it would.

So on April 7th 2018 (7/4/18) Turkey and the Army of Islam faked a Nerve Agent attack on the town of Douma. Located in the East Ghouta suburb. The purpose of this was to create a distraction while the Army of Islam and Faylaq al-Rahman were whisked away to Turkish controlled areas.

It was France in particular that granted credibility to the claim of Nerve Agent use. France then pressured the US and the UK to conduct strikes against Syria as punishment for the Nerve Agent attack on Douma.

Those French-led strikes occurred on April 14th 2018 (14/4/18). Four days before the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were able to begin an investigation.

On Friday, March 1st 2019 (1/3/19) the OPCW published its final report into the Douma attack. It found absolutely no evidence to indicate that Nerve Agents had been used at all.

It did though find an abundance of evidence of the Chlorine Turkey and the Army of Islam had used in the faking of the Nerve Agent attack.

By August 2018 the Syrians had succeeded in liberating the entire Central Syria area. This seemed to set the stage for them to then move to liberate the Sudetenland from Al Qaeda.

Again it was France who rushed to Turkey's side. In an effort to prevent this from happening.

France pressured the US and the UK into committing to a statement warning the Syrians against liberating the Sudetenland. France backed up this statement by deploying the Auvergene Cruise missile frigate to the Mediterranean. Ready to strike Syria if it moved to liberate the Sudetenland.

By September 17th 2018 (17/9/18) the French and Turkish pressure paid off. Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria agreed to put in place a Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) plan to prevent the liberation of the Sudetenland.

In the hours after this DMZ plan being announced Israel launched another wave of airstrikes against Syria.

Specifically Israel used Cruise missiles fired from aircraft over the Mediterranean to strike Latakia City. Those aircraft used the French ship Auvergene as radar cover. So, on radar screens it initially appeared as though the Cruise missiles had been fired from the Auvergene.

The Israeli aircraft also used a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft as radar cover. The Il-20 is similar in size and shape to a large, civilian passenger aircraft. Even amid all these advances in radar technology it still remains quite hard to spot the little thing hiding just behind the big thing.

Amid the chaos the Il-20 was shot down by Syrian S-200 Air Defence system. Resulting in the deaths of 15 Russian military personnel.

In response Russia upgraded Syria's Air Defence systems. By giving Syria the more advanced S-300 system. The top of the line Russian, domestic system rather than the slightly inferior export version. Russia also upgraded the radar capabilities of the existing S-200 system.

On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) US President Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Triggering this widespread discussion over what troops the US has in Syria, where they're located and what effect their withdrawal would have.

Amid this discussion Israel launched another wave of airstrikes against Syria on December 25th 2018 (25/12/18). Coming on Christmas Day you would have thought these airstrikes would be the only thing being discussed in the US and much of the EU that day.

Israel's main objective in carrying out the December 25th (25/12/18) strikes was to test the upgrades to the S-200 system. They set out to do this by conducting an almost astonishingly reckless attack.

The strike involved Cruise missiles being fired from Lebanese airspace at primarily Damascus International Airport.

In firing the missiles the Israeli aircraft used civilian, passenger aircraft taking off and landing at Beirut International Airport as radar cover. In striking their targets the missiles used civilian, passenger aircraft taking off and landing at Damascus International Airport as radar cover.

Fortunately the upgraded radar on the S-200 system was up to the task. 14 of the 16 Israeli missiles were successfully shot down. More importantly no civilian aircraft were shot down by mistake.

Israel's December 25th (25/12/18) strikes were very similar in nature then to its September 17th (17/9/18) strikes. Which highlighted France's role in supporting Turkey in the defence of the Sudetenland.

The strikes also invoked very strong memories of the July 17th 2014 (17/7/14) shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine. Which the US and Europe continue to impose sanctions on Russia over.

France's lack of diplomatic maturity has really been highlighted by its response to Trump's withdrawal announcement.

On December 20th 2018 (20/12/18), the day after the announcement, France publicly condemned US President Trump and declared it would be keeping its troops in Shangri-La.

What is less well publicised is that on December 22nd 2018 (22/12/18) an SDF delegation visited France. At that meeting France refused to provide the SDF with the support it was publicly claiming to provide.

That refusal to support the SDF did not stop French President Macron from further condemning US President Trump's announcement in public. On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18).

On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drain very quietly confirmed that France will be withdrawing its troops from Shangri-La.

The issue that really highlights France's hypocrisy though is the fate of foreign ISIL members captured by the SDF.

On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) France announced that it will be repatriating 130 French ISIL members.On February 16th 2019 (16/2/19) US President Trump called on nations, including France to repatriate ISIL prisoners.

Two days later, on February 18th 2019 (18/2/19), France publicly rejected US President Trump's call. Reversing the French position of January 29th (29/1/19).

So France's position on Syria seems based on one thing and one thing only; "Do the opposite of whatever Trump suggests."

Frankly French President Macron needs to grow up.

Both the US and the European members of CJTFOIR are hesitant to exert too much pressure on Turkey. They are concerned this will drive Turkey of their sphere of influence and into Russia.

That is entirely a problem of their own creation.

The start of the conflict in Syria back in 2011 significantly strained ties between Turkey and Russia. Turkey was trying to overthrow the Syrian government to annex the traditional Russia ally as part of a New Ottoman Empire.

Relations between Turkey and Russia hit an all time low in November 2015. When Turkish aircraft shot down a Russian aircraft over Syria. In order to prevent the Russian aircraft from bombing the forces Turkey is using to try and overthrow the Syrian government.

In response to this incident Russia broke off all diplomatic and economic ties with Turkey. Effectively placing Turkey under vice-like economic sanctions.

What changed this situation was the actions of the US and the EU.

In early 2014 then US President Barack Obama carried out a coup in Ukraine, overthrowing the government. Obama then used the situation he had created to impose sanctions against Russia. To punish Russia for its opposition to ISIL and associated groups. Something he could not openly come out and do.

The EU was well aware of both former US President Obama's actions and his motives. In June 2014 the EU empowered the Normandy Four group to negotiate on its behalf in regards to Ukraine. This was made up of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.

The US was notably excluded from the Normandy Four. That's because it was clear former US President Obama's only objective was to make the situation in Ukraine continuously worse. In order to justify the pro-ISIL sanctions against Russia.

If former US President Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton had one the November 2016 US Presidential Election it would be a major counterfactual. I absolutely hate counterfactuals.

However it is likely that a US President Hillary Clinton would have dragged the US in an increasingly extreme direction. That would have made it impossible for the EU to continue in an alliance with the US. Instead breaking away and following its own path in relation to Turkey, Ukraine and Russia.

So the notion that Russia would try to rig the 2016 US Presidential Election against Hillary Clinton doesn't even withstand basic scrutiny.

Relations between the US and it's NATO allies were already strained due to the extremism of former US President Obama. A continuation of US extremism under a President Hillary Clinton would have pushed them to breaking point. A longterm strategic objective for Russia.

In many ways the fact they're dealing with US President Trump has taken a huge amount of pressure off the EU. Although US Democrats continue to rant and rave about Russia they're doing so from the sidelines. The fact that the US position isn't becoming significantly more extreme allows the EU to stay the course rather than forcing it to act to change things.

Unfortunately with no end to former US President Obama's extremist policies in sight Russia has been forced to protect its economy from sanctions. By doing business with any nation that isn't imposing sanctions on them. Which means Turkey.

As US and EU sanctions force them to do business with Turkey Russia has become increasingly spiteful. Essentially gifting Turkey the S-400 Air Defence System. So it can be tested against the F-35 aircraft the US is planning to sell to Turkey. Allowing Russia to render this brand new aircraft obsolete.

It is in this area of Russia/Turkey relations the March 2018 poisoning of Sergei Skripal and associates becomes so important. By an unfortunate coincidence today is actually the first anniversary of the Skripal poisoning.

Probably the only thing we know for sure about the Skripal poisoning is that Russia did not do it.

In September 2018 Britain laid out its case against Russia. In order to show the World just how ridiculous it was.

In looking at the evidence Britain laid out try and clear your mind of any exotic distractions. Like complex spy stories or Novichok Nerve Agents. Look at it as if Britain is accusing the two men of a typical, every day, boring crime.

Imagine the police are telling you these two men stole a car from Salisbury on March 3rd 2018 (3/3/18). While at the same time showing you CCTV footage proving the men were in a completely different city at the time the car was stolen.

Then imagine the police were trying to convince you the two men stole another car from Salisbury in July 2018. While proving to you the men had left the UK to travel the World on their gap year three months before the car was stolen.

If the police attempted presenting that case in any British Court they and it would quickly be laughed out the door by the Jury.

It is probably worth noting that today the British Prime Minister's office sent out a social media message marking the anniversary of the Skripal poisoning. It featured a picture of Bath. Which is a completely different city.

Also Britain used the Shamima Begum case to highlight the ISIL fighters held prisoner by the SDF. Over the weekend of February 16th 2019 (16/2/19), during the Munich Security Conference.

On the night of February 16th (16/2/19) someone hung an absolutely massive Russian flag from Salisbury Cathedral. No doubt prompting discussion about whether it was the right flag to hang from the scaffold.

Blaming the Skripal poisoning on Russia is particularly problematic because it involves a Chemical Weapon. That means it triggers the sanction regime laid out under the US 1991 Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act. This automatically impose tighter and more expansive sanctions.

So even if we were never to talk of the Skripal case again it will continue to make the situation worse. With tighter sanctions being automatically imposed in the background against wider sectors of the Russian economy. Until Britain comes clean and admits it makes a mistake.

If Britain were to properly investigate the Skripal poisoning it may well find that it was actually Turkey who was responsible. Specifically to trigger sanctions against Russia to strengthen Turkey's position in its dealings with Russia.

The possibility of Turkey conducting a Nerve Agent attack during the 2018 Winter Olympics was certainly covered in numerous threat assessments. Not least because of Malaysia's claim that a Nerve Agent was used by North Korea to assassinated Kim Jong Nam.

As the recent OPCW report into the Douma attack has shown Turkey was certainly prepared to conduct this type of misdirecting Nerve Agent attack. Little more than a month after the Skripal poisoning.

Sergei Skripal was also recruited to MI6 by a man who went on to work for Christopher Steele's Orbis Business Intelligence. The company which prepared the Russian collusion dossier.

The Russian collusion dossier which was used by US Democrats first to justify the FBI spying on the Republican 2016 Election campaign. Then when that interference had failed to rig the election in Hillary Clinton's favour to appoint Special Counsel Robert Mueller. An investigation which has certainly bound the US' to former President Obama's extremist policies.

Therefore there is a lot of suspicion that Sergei Skripal was one of the sources for the Steele dossier. In the week Sergei Skripal was poisoned Steele and Orbis Business Intelligence were being sued in a British Court for defamation over the dossier.

As such a proper investigation into the Skripal poisoning could well reveal that sections of the US intelligence community, such as Mueller and his FBI team were involved. To prevent Skripal from giving evidence in the defamation trial over the dossier.

Just the fact that Britian is continuing to blame Russia for the Skripal poisoning, despite knowing full well Russia didn't do it, is giving Mueller and his faction false hope.

20:10 on 4/3/19 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 4, Day 6.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4_27.html

In that post I looked at US President Donald Trump's December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) announcement that US troops are to be withdrawn from Syria.

I particularly looked at how any changes would affect the SDF's ability to combat the ISIL insurgency in Shangri-La.

Within Shangri-La ISIL are not the only threat the SDF face. The direct threat from Turkey is now equal or greater than the threat posed by ISIL.

The Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) has long been known to conduct guerrilla style attacks against Shangri-La.

Often it claims these attacks through a variety of front groups. Including The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HaQ) and the linguistically challenging Dignity of the Martyrs/Tajammu Shuhada. More recently though the MIT have been happy to have their attacks attributed to ISIL.

By my estimations Turkey's MIT carried out 35 guerrilla style attacks against the SDF within Shangri-La. During the period between November 12th 2018 (12/11/18) and February 7th 2019 (7/2/19).

As I mentioned in my previous post the threat of the ISIL insurgency will likely fade over time. As its cells run out of manpower and weaponry.

The Turkish insurgency will not fade in this way. It is sponsored by the full backing of a nation state. Therefore its cells can be replaced and resupplied almost endlessly.

As such, in this sense, the Turkish insurgency presents a much more serious threat than the ISIL insurgency.

Unlike ISIL Turkey also continues to present a conventional military threat to Shangri-La and the people living there.

Amongst the SDF's international partners there has been a significant failure to grasp both how real this Turkish threat is and how imminent the Turkish threat has been.

In August 2016 Turkey invaded and illegally occupied the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. This sits directly on the western boundary of the Shangri-La area.

Turkey continues to illegally occupy the Garvaghy Road area. Using both the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA) force.

In January 2018 Turkey attacked the SDF directly. Invading and occupying the the Afrin Canton area of Syria. Again with a combination of TSK and UTA forces. Turkey continues to illegally occupy Afrin Canton.

On October 12th 2018 (12/10/18) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to invade and illegally occupy Shangri-La. Bizarrely describing the SDF's impending defeat of ISIL as the establishment of; "Terrorist Nests."

Unusually for Erdogan this was no empty threat.

It was followed up by the deployment of 14,000 UTA fighters to Shangri-La's western boundary with Garvaghy Road. Along with the deployment of at least 1,200 UTA fighters to Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey.

In both places the UTA were accompanied by significant deployments of the TSK. With the combined force conducting extensive joint training exercises and invasion preparations.

On October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) the TSK began shelling Shangri-La. Both from within the Garvaghy Road area and from within Turkey itself.

These artillery strikes coincided with ISIL launching a large counter-offensive against the SDF in the Hajin Pocket. They seemed to be a deliberate attempt by Turkey to divide the SDF's forces in order to protect ISIL within the Hajin Pocket.

Those Turkish artillery strikes continued on a near daily basis throughout October and November 2018.

On November 27th 2018 (27/11/18) they expanded into ground attacks on the SDF by the UTA. Particularly in the area of the village of Kur Hayuk. Just to the west of Manbij on the Shangri-La/Garvaghy Road boundary.

On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the leader of the Sultan Murad Brigade, one of the largest factions in the UTA, declared that its invasion preparations were complete. Shangri-La would be invaded the moment the order was given.

On December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) Erdogan declared that the invasion of Shangri-La would begin in the coming few days.

Then, on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18), Erdogan suddenly declared that the planned invasion had been postponed.

If Erdogan had gone ahead with his invasion plan, or goes ahead with it in the future the roughly 2,300 troops the US has stationed in Shangri-La would be of limited use.

The US SOF's are extremely capable troops who specialise in combat. However there are only 300 of them. The combined TSK/UTA force Erdogan had assembled is in the region of 35,000 troops. While it's likely the US SOF's would make a significant dent in that it is highly unlikely that they would be able to stop it.

The remaining 2,000 US troops - the artillery battalions - were deployed specifically to destroy ISIL defensive positions. As a result they have been located in the Hajin Pocket area. At least 380km (230 miles) away from Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey.

If those artillery battalions were to be redeployed to fight the Turkish invasion they would still find themselves significantly outgunned. I don't know exactly how many TSK artillery battalions had been assembled as part of the invasion force. I can assure though that it is significantly more than two.

The only real role US troops serve in deterring a Turkish invasion is that of a sort of voluntarily human shield. The thinking being that Erdogan would not be prepared to provoke a wider conflict with the US, and NATO, by killing Americans.

Sitting around waiting to be killed is very much not in the military mindset. If troops are threatened they are trained to take the initiative and very aggressively eliminate that threat. The presence of CJTFOIR troops has also proved scant deterrent to Erdogan in the past.

CJTFOIR troops were very much stationed in Shangri-La when Erdogan launched airstrikes against it on March 1st 2017 (1/3/17). Striking both around Manbij and at Tal Rifaat. A town which marks the western boundary between the Garvaghy Road area and Afrin Canton.

CJTFOIR troops were also very much stationed in Shangri-La when Erdogan launched several days of airstrikes against it. Starting with the mass of 20 airstrikes against SDF High Command at al-Malikiyah/Derik on April 25th 2017 (25/4/17). Continuing over April 26th 2017 (26/1/17) and April 27th 2017 (27/4/17).

In an effort to stop these Turkish airstrikes US troops were dispatched to conduct highly visible patrols along the Shangri-La/Turkey border. Those US patrols in no way deterred the TSK from launching a limited ground incursion into Shangri-La around the town of Darbasiya on April 28th 2017 (28/1/17).

Erdogan has not only shown a reckless indifference as to whether US troops are killed. He has also been actively probing to see how the US would react if Turkey were to kill American troops. As a result of this probing CJTFOIR troops have already been killed by Turkey.

On March 29th 2018 (29/3/18) the Turkish MIT used an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) to ambush a CJTFOIR vehicle patrol in Manbij. This resulted in the death of British SOF Sergeant Matthew Tonroe and American SOF Master Sergeant Jonathan Dunbar.

CJTFOIR's response was to publicly dismiss the attack as being carried out by ISIL. In order to avoid having to take any punitive action against Turkey.

As recently a January 16th 2019 (16/1/19) Americans have been killed in Manbij. In the Inghimasi-style suicide bomber attack on a US "community engagement" at the Qasr al-Umara cafe.

This was an ISIL attack. However significant questions remain over how ISIL were able to learn about this clandestine meeting far enough in advance to conduct a sophisticated attack against it.

It is worth noting that in claiming the attack ISIL referred to the SDF as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). In line with the script Erdogan hands out to supporters in an effort to justify his attacks.

With at least two CJTFOIR troops having being killed by Turkey and CJTFOIR failing to respond the taboo on killing CJTFOIR troops seems to have been removed.

In response to the Turkish artillery strikes which began on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) the US issued its strongest condemnation yet.

On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) the US announced that it was building a network of Observation Post type military bases along Shangri-La's border with Turkey. Once again putting its troops in the line of fire to deter Turkish aggression.

This had precisely no effect in deterring Turkey's aggression.

The TSK artillery strikes on Shangri-La continued unabated. On November 27th (27/11/18) they escalated to ground clashes between the UTA and the SDF around Manbij.

As I've said if Turkey does attack Shangri-La the military force needed to stop such an invasion will not come in the form of two artillery battalions and a few hundred SOFs. It will come in the form of cruise missile destroyers in the Mediterranean and strategic bombers flying out of places like Louisiana.

If those resources need to be brought to bear it will mean there has been a catastrophic failure of diplomacy amongst the CJTFOIR nations.

Up until now the responsibility to deter Erdogan's aggression has fallen entirely on US President Trump's shoulders.

You don't hear of Erdogan contacting the President of the European Council Donald Tusk demanding permission to invade Shangri-La. Nor do you hear him contacting EU leaders such as UK Prime Minister May, German Chancellor Merkel or French President Macron.

Instead Erdogan seems to spend all day, every day calling on President Trump, demanding permission to invade Shangri-La.

Personally I would have turned my phone off a long time ago.

US President Trump's announcement came as Britain was grappling with the detail of its Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Or more accurately as the World stood in bemusement at British politician's inability to grasp even the basics of the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement establishes a two year Transition Period. During which time Britain negotiates its future relationship with the EU. If no agreement is reached during the Transition Period then it can be extended by a further year.

Only if those two options have been exhausted does the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland get invoked. As a contingency on the contingency.

The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland places the UK into a customs union with the EU. This is a slightly improved version of the standard EU Customs Union.

The EU Customs Union has always been intended as stop-gap on the journey to the closer integration of the EU Single Market. As a result the only nation that is a member of the EU Customs Union but not also a member of the EU Single Market is Turkey.

Turkey has been stopped from joining the EU Single Market because it refuses to adhere to common EU standards. Particularly on things like Human Rights and the Rule of Law.

You know, pedantic little things. Like not using air and artillery strikes to completely destroy the Turkish city of Diyarbakir. In an act of collective punishment against the Kurdish population. 

Being left languishing in the EU Customs Union, the worst of both worlds has Turkey furious. At any given point, on any given day.

Within Britain many Remoaners, particularly the Labour Party are demanding that Britain remains in the EU Customs Union.

Indicating that not only have they failed to understand the Withdrawal Agreement. They've also completely failed to grasp what the EU is.

Working through the detail of the customs union in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland shows how much of a better deal the UK is getting than Turkey.

As such it provides a list of diplomatic mechanisms that the EU could be exerting on Turkey to first prevent it invading Shangri-La. Then, ultimately getting it to end its occupation of all Syrian territory.

Even before you get into the more extreme measures allowed by the EU Customs Union the EU could still exert a lot of diplomatic pressure on Turkey. Simply by removing the gifts and charity it provides to Turkey.

A prime example of this is the trust fund the EU has established to support Syrian refugees within Turkey. Including the US$3.4bn top up the EU granted in March 2018 this totals nearly US$7bn.

Despite this Turkey still refuses to implement the 1951 UN Convention on the Status of Refugees. As such there is not a single refugee in Turkey, Syrian or otherwise. What there is are roughly 3.5m Syrians civilians that Erdogan refuses to grant even basic rights to.

Therefore the EU certainly has ample legal grounds to cancel its trust fund for Turkey. Not that it needs one. This is simply charity. As always with charity if the donor wants to stop giving they simply stop. They don't have to justify themselves to the recipient.

The EU is hesitant to do that because they think it will lead to Erdogan flooding the EU with irregular migrants and Islamist terrorists. As he did in 2015. However if you've been tracking the recent anti-Syrian riots in Turkey, particularly in Justice & Development Party (AKP) strongholds, you would know the issue is also a significant pressure point for Erdogan.

Perhaps more so. If Erdogan does go down that route again Merkel simply needs to apologise. Then respond to the crisis properly. Rather than trying to steal all of Syria's children to make up for Germany's falling birthrate.

Once you've removed the gifts and charity the EU could still exert significant pressure on Turkey. Simply by conducting business as usual. Rather than making special exceptions for Turkey.

As I've mentioned Turkey invaded Afrin Canton in January 2018. This was simply a land grab on Erdogan's part. He was trying to snatch as much Syrian territory as possible for New Ottoman Empire.

Erdogan was particularly interested in Afrin's Olive industry. Which is worth around US70m per year.

There is now significant, credible evidence that Afrin's Olives are being labelled as Turkish. Then sold through the EU under the terms of the Customs Union.

Turkey told you as much by announcing that Afrin Olives would be sold exclusively through the Turkish Agricultural Co-operative. On November 13th 2018 (13/11/18).

I suppose the EU can choose to ignore the fact that Afrin's Olives are stolen property. Obtained by Turkey illegally invading and militarily occupying a neighbouring state.

However surely the EU cannot ignore the fact this practice is a food safety scandal which threatens the health of EU consumers. Similar to the 2013 Horse meat scandal.

It turns out there is a lot more involved in Olive production than simply picking them off a tree. I was genuinely surprised to learn how much toxic waste is involved. I can also assure you that food hygiene standards in Afrin Canton most certainly do not meet EU requirements.

So even if the EU were deeply committed to supporting Turkey it would still have to ban imports of Turkish Olives.

Then you've got the matter that Afrin's Olives are being grown and produced using forced or slave labour. Slavery famously reduces staffing costs. Meaning, if nothing else, Turkey's use of the practice represents a serious market distortion in both the EU Customs Union and the Single Market.

It almost goes without saying that much of the investigation into the Afrin Olive trade has been done by Spain. A full EU member and a big Olive producing nation.

As such it seems the EU is not even prepared to enforce its own rules when it comes to Turkey. Let alone shoulder its part of the diplomatic burden by taking special measures against Turkey.

Not only that the EU seems more than happy to side with Turkey against the US. When the US takes action to exert diplomatic pressure on Turkey.

For example in March 2018 US President Trump introduced tariffs on US imports of Turkish steel. In August 2018 US President Trump doubled those steel tariffs. In response to Turkey effectively holding the US citizen Andrew Brunson as a hostage.

The EU's response was to not join the US in imposing tariffs on Turkish steel. Instead it was to rant and rave against Trump. Then threaten to sue the US on Turkey's behalf to get the tariffs scrapped.

Also I said you don't hear of Erdogan calling on EU leaders for permission to invade Shangri-La. That's not quite true.

On October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) Germany's Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron attended a summit on Syria in Istanbul, Turkey. At Erdogan's invitation.

There they signed up to a communique "rejecting all separatist movements" and "emphasising the importance of fighting all forms of terrorism."

With the summit over and that communique in hand Erdogan suddenly felt confident to start shelling the; "Separatist Terrorists of the PKK" in Shangri-La.

18:20 on 1/3/19 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 4, Day 4.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-4.html

In that post I looked at US President Donald Trump's announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18). That he intended to immediately withdraw US troops from Syria.

I particularly looked at the fact that the Shangri-La area is not the only area of Syria in which US troops are operating. Aside from the supporting the SDF the US also has troops stationed at the Dollywood base. Located close to the town of al-Tanf within the Central Syria area.

The only function US troops are currently performing at the Dollywood base is to protect ISIL. The exclusion zone around the base provides ISIL with a de facto safe haven in which they can operate. That obviously runs counter to the US  mission to defeat ISIL.

So removing US troops from the Dollywood base is not a cause for concern. It is a decision that it is almost two years overdue.

Of the roughly 2,300 US troops deployed in the Shangri-La area a full 2,000 of them belong to two artillery battalions. They were sent into Syria ahead of the Battle of Raqqa City, in the spring of 2017, to perform a specific task. To rain artillery shells down on ISIL defensive positions, destroying them.

With the liberation of the Hajin Pocket area there are now no longer any ISIL defensive positions within Shangri-La. Meaning that those two artillery battalion's task is now complete. So they should be withdrawn and allowed to return to their normal duties.

This changing of the type of resources used as the mission changes is common throughout all wars. It's certainly been common throughout the war against ISIL and associated groups.

In December 2016 Denmark withdrew its seven F-16 fighters jets and support personnel from the CJTFOIR coalition. This wasn't because Denmark suddenly no longer believed in the mission or no longer wished to aid it. CJTFOIR had just found itself in a position where it had far more planes than targets to bomb.

Therefore CJTFOIR was able to allow some of those planes to return to their normal duties. It was easier to stand down all Danish aircraft then stand down, say four Danish and three American planes. Then try to coordinate the remaining aircraft under a unified CJTFOIR command.

Likewise in December 2017 Australia withdrew it's seven F-18 fighter jets and support personnel from the CJTFOIR. Again this was simply because as ISIL's territory shrank CJTFOIR found itself in a position where it had far more planes than targets to bomb.

As recently as January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) the UK announced it was withdrawing its eight GR-4 fighters from the CJTFOIR coalition.

Again this had nothing to do with President Trump's announcement. With there now being so few targets to bomb there was no point keeping the 40 year old aircraft in service beyond its planned retirement in March 2019.

The UK will continue to deploy six of the newer Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft as part of CJTFOIR. If the need arises it will deploy more of the newer type of aircraft to CJTFOIR.

However there is a certain level of debate over the costs of deploying the GR4's replacement the F-35 against the Russian S-400 Air Defence System. There's even significant interest in the upgraded S-200 system's capability against aircraft such as the F-35.

The liberation of the Hajin Pocket means that ISIL are now defeated as a conventional military force. They're now forced to operate as an armed insurgency conducting guerrilla attacks.

I do not intend to ignore these ISIL guerrilla attacks. Nor do I mean to detract from their severity.

However I think it is important to take a moment to appreciate just what a massive improvement this is.

Last Thursday, February 21st (21/2/19) ISIL conducted a particularly successful guerrilla attack. An Improvised Explosive Device (IED) hidden in a car was used to ambush a bus carrying workers from the Omar Oil & Gas Field. 24 of those civilian workers were killed and many more were wounded.

That though is still a massive improvement on the Battle of Kobani in the winter of 2014/15. It is also a massive improvement on the Battle of Raqqa City in the summer and autumn of 2017.

It is even a massive improvement on ISIL's November 24th 2018 (24/11/18) two day attack on the town of Bahrah, just outside the Hajin Pocket. In which 92 members of the SDF were killed in the conventional battle.

I should also point out that even if we were to do absolutely nothing about ISIL's insurgency it would likely fade on its own.

Throughout this conflict I've often found myself talking about the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). I particularly talk about their Grey Wolves paramilitary wing as being part of the NATO "Gladio" operation. A secret army to counter Soviet influence and use guerrilla tactics to fight behind the lines in the event of a Soviet invasion.

Operation Gladio has its roots in the GHQ Auxilary Units Britain operated during World War Two. These were the forerunner of the Special Operations Executive (SOE) which was copied by the US to create the Office of Strategic Services (OSS). Which became the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

The GHQ Auxiliary Units were made up of 3,500 volunteers. Often veterans of the International Brigades from the Spanish Civil War. They were divided into eight man autonomous cells, given a stockpile of weapons and a 20kmsq (15 milesq) area of operations.

In the event of Britain being invaded the GHQ Auxiliary Units were tasked with carrying out intense guerrilla attacks against the Nazi forces. Until they were killed. They were instructed to use the last of their weapon stockpiles to conduct one final suicide attack.

Obviously the GHQ Auxiliary Units were never used. However in their planning they had a predicted life expectancy of just 12 days after being activated.

So even without any action being taken against them it is likely that ISIL's own Auxiliary Units or Sleeper Cells will become less effective. Burning themselves out as they run out of ammunition.

Obviously though I have absolutely no intention of leaving ISIL's sleeper cells to simply fade away.

In terms of combating ISIL as a guerrilla force there remains a substantial, conventional military role for the SDF to play. Conducting patrols, sweeping operations and re-sweeping operations of the desert areas to uncover ISIL camps and weapons stores.

As the Syrian military has been doing in the Syrian Desert/Badiya al-Sham. Or at least the areas of the Syrian Desert they're not blocked from entering by the US troops deployed at the Dollywood base.

These type of operations are hugely assisted by surveillance assets. Such as satellites and drones. If you've identified an ISIL camp that may soon move on the best way to destroy it is with an airstrike.

However I don't think there was any suggestion of President Trump's withdrawal announcement apply to this type of US asset. They don't even operate out of either Syria or Iraq.

Primarily though the fight is now going to shift into counter-terrorism operations and raids. Often in otherwise peaceful civilian urban areas. These are Special Operations. So require Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The SDF have already made significant progress in developing this type of capabilities.

In March 2017 the SDF's own Special Operations Force the Anti-Terror Units (YAT) introduced itself to the World. Participating in an airborne assault on the ISIL occupied town of Tabqa.

An airborne assault is a particularly complex and sophisticated military operation. In the US Army soldiers have to do a special course and receive a special qualification badge before they're allowed to participate in them. So the SDF's ability to conduct such an operation impressed and caught the attention of a lot of people.

The YAT are said to be loosely based on Iraq's Counter-Terrorism Service (ICTS/Golden Division). The Golden Division itself is said to be based on the US Army's Green Berets SOF.

From what I've seen of their operations though the YAT seem to operate more along the lines of the US Navy SEAL Teams or the US Army Delta Force. When those SOF's are operating in their counter-terrorism role.

That is to say that the YAT operate almost like a police Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) team. A well equipped and extremely lethal SWAT team.

From the Ayaish neighbourhood police officer up to the YAT itself everyone gathers intelligence on ISIL sleeper cells, how they operate and where they are located. Rather like how a police force would track a drugs gang or a gang of armed robbers.

Once the intelligence has been gathered and collated the YAT move in to raid the targets. Capturing or killing members of the ISIL cells, seizing their weapons and equipment and generally disrupting their ability to operate and conduct attacks.

Alongside the YAT the SDF announced, on January 16th 2019 (16/1/19), the creation of its Commando Forces (Hezen Komandoz). The only thing I really know about them at this point is their name and the first graduating class was made up of 120 members.

I would assume though, from the name, that they are intended to function as what is traditionally recognised as a commando force. That is to say an elite force which is more capable and more specialised than a conventional force. Yet falls just short of the standards of a Special Operations Force.

In an anti-terrorism role they would act in support of the YAT. As the basis of a Quick Reaction Force (QRF).

A prime example of this comes from the Philippines. In May 2017 two ISIL affiliated groups, Abu Sayyaf and the Maute Group, overran the Philippine city of Marawi.

If something like this occurred in Shangri-La it would be too large for the YAT to handle alone. So they would lead the operation backed by the Hezen Komandoz. If need be the operation would be further supported by conventional units of the SDF. Likely securing the areas the YAT and Hezen Homandoz had cleared.

It must be said though that to be effective any commando force needs to be of at least battalion sized, 800-1000 strong. The equivalent force in the UK military is the Navy Marine Commandos. That is currently made up of five battalions. Plans to cut it to just three battalions have proved highly controversial.

Also simply calling yourself a SOF or a Commando does not make it true. You need the rigorous selection and training to back it up.

So despite the work the SDF have done to build their own capabilities CJTFOIR does still need to deploy its own SOF's to Shangri-La. In order to provide training help the SDF build up its own capacity and fill in any existing capability gaps.

After all the YAT maybe capable of mounting an airborne assault. However they still require CJTFOIR to provide them with the aircraft. 

In deciding what level of support it can provide the US, and other members of CJTFOIR, will have to consider what impact that support will have on their own forces. Along with what missions their forces will not then be able to carry out because they're deployed in Syria.

The last conventional war the NATO elements of CJTFOIR fought was in 1999. The small, illegal one against Serbia.

Following the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks the US declared the Global War on Terror. This war is still ongoing and is one which is being fought primarily by Special Operations Forces (SOF).

As a result these past 18 years have seen a massive increase in the public's interest in SOF's. So you have TV shows such as; "The Unit," "SEAL Team" and the far inferior; "Six."

The UK even has a reality TV show called; "SAS: Are You Tough Enough." Currently in its fifth season this puts members of the public through a toned down, softened version of SAS selection. To find out if they're tough enough. The answer is often a resounding; "No."

Under former US President Obama the Global War on Terror became much worse. With Islamist terrorism spreading to previously safe areas such as Libya, Nigeria and across Africa's Sahel Belt.

In October 2017 a number of US Green Beret SOF's were killed in Niger. Including Sgt La David Johnson. Many Americans, particularly Democrats, were shocked to learn that first a country called Niger existed and that US troops were deployed there.

In fact US SOF's have their main, big mission in Afghanistan. Along with a number of smaller deployments in a host of places such as Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Burkina Faso all across Africa. They also conduct response operations such as to rescue hostages or to target senior terrorist leaders.

The problem with this is that the entire US SOF community is only about 70,000 strong. Including support staff such as in logistics and intelligence. The sheer number of missions they're being asked to do is putting a huge stress on them.

Conventional US troops will do a 6 to 9 month deployment in a combat zone. They then won't be asked to do another combat deployment for at least another 12 months. SOF's will return from a three month combat deployment only to be immediately sent out on another one.

Back in January 2019 it emerged that there had been a massive spike in suicides within the US SOF community. They saw 32 suicides per 100,000 people. More than double the national average of 13 per 100,000 people.

Obviously I've not looked at the circumstances of each individual suicide. Dealing with personal medical records I wouldn't be able to. However most seem to be linked to relationship breakdowns and financial worries rather than things like PTSD.

Both of these factors seem to be caused by the high rate of deployment. That obviously puts stress on personal relationships and people often spend money they don't have trying to mitigate those relationship stresses. For example if your spouse is not home to cook dinner your kids would be forced to spend money on take-out.
 
So there is some pressure on the US to reduce the number of SOF deployments it is undertaking. In order to reduce the risk of them being pushed to breaking point. There is certainly significant pressure on the US to pay them more.

Fortunately the type of training and support mission required in Shangri-La can be extremely small.

On January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) there was an Islamist terror attack on a hotel in the Westlands district of the Kenyan capital Nairobi.

In the middle of the effort to bring this attack to an end there was a single British SAS solider. He'd been deployed, on his own, to train and support Kenyan forces. When the attack happened he decided to get stuck in.

It also means that at some point Britain looked at Kenya and wondered how many SAS soldiers would be required to have a significant impact of the Islamist terror threat there. The answer they came up with was; One.

Alongside ISIL's guerrilla attacks the other major challenge facing the SDF is what to do with the large number of ISIL prisoners they have captured. Something that Britain has pushed into the spotlight with the case of Shamima Begum.

Within Britain the tone of the coverage of Shamima Begum has been that she is some sort of almost heroic figure. An innocent victim of the brutality of the cruel SDF.

There have genuinely been calls for her to be allowed to return home and not face any punishment at all. Some people seem to think that if she is to be punished it should only be the mildest telling off by the police and Courts.

As if she'd simply been caught underage drinking or engaging in some light shoplifting.

To those arguments the answer is very simple. Begum, and all of ISIL prisoners have been captured on the battlefield. In a UN designated warzone.

As such civilian law does not apply to them. The only way to deal with them is under the laws of war, essentially the Geneva Conventions. Through a system of military tribunal.

However I should make clear that the Geneva Conventions do not allow for collective punishment. Nor do they allow for summary justice or extrajudicial punishment. In fact they expressly forbid them.

It's worth pointing out though that fighters of the GHQ Auxiliary Units were instructed to commit suicide rather than allow themselves to be captured. That's because they knew that they were acting as illegal combatants so absolutely everything was on the table in terms of what could be done to them if they were captured.

The crimes committed by ISIL are so shocking and so severe there have only been five, possibly six occasions where the international community has been called upon to prosecute crimes of such magnitude.

The Nuremberg Military Tribunal. This addressed the crimes of Nazi Germany committed before and during the Second World War. Including the holocaust.

The International Military Tribunal for the Far East. Associated with the Nuremberg Military Tribunal this addressed the crimes committed by Imperial Japan during the Second World War.

The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia. These addressed the crimes committed by Cambodia's Khmer Rouge regime between 1975 and 1979. Much like Shamima Begum the Khmer Rouge was famously made up of many members who were just teenagers.

The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. This addressed the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. This addressed crimes committed during the break up of Yugoslavia and the associated Balkan Wars. Including the 1995 Srebrenica massacre.

If you look at these tribunals in detail you will quickly notice that they are all different in structure from each other. They have been specifically tailored to fit the people who committed the crimes, the crimes themselves and the communities that became the victims of those crimes.

Even the second round of Nuremberg Tribunals was different from the first. The third round was different from them both.

So even this simple answer of how to prosecute the ISIL prisoners is not that simple.

As such I will have to circle back to this complex issue. Dealing with it more fully in an appropriate section.

The immediate priority is ensuring that there is the space and time in which to have these discussions and make appropriate decisions.

Fortunately under the laws of war there is no concept of Habeus Corpus, restrictions of detention without trial.

Lawful combatants, Prisoners Of War (POW's) are never expected to be put on trial. By definition their actions are considered entirely lawful. Instead they are held until the war ends. Or until their captors benevolently decided to release them and send them home.

In the interim though the SDF do need to house and control these ISIL prisoners.

The immediate thing they need to do is screen them.

Amongst the thousands of people emerging for previously ISIL controlled areas there are some who are clearly ISIL members. Such as Shamima Begum. However there are also some who are clearly wholly innocent civilians.

The SDF need to identify those who are clearly innocent civilians and transport them to Internally Displaced People's (IDP) camps. Such as the one at al-Hawl. These people are considered victims, whom nobody has any interest in taking further action against. The SDF therefore has a responsibility to ensure that they receive appropriate care.

The people who have been identified as ISIL members need to be separated from the civilians. They need to be transported and housed in entirely separate camps. In terms of design, for speed, these can be almost exactly the same as the IDP camps. Only with external fencing, guard and watch towers.

I would locate these prisoner camps close to Raqqa City. Where a camp for ISIL family members emerged during the Battle of Raqqa City. It is in this area where ISIL dug the majority of their mass graves. Mass graves which are now slowly being unearthed.

I think it is important that the journalists rushing to give the likes of Shamima Begum a sympathetic ear take a look at those mass graves.

Once they've built prisoner camps and separated ISIL members into them the SDF need to look at what, of limited, resources can be made available to them. Here there is a clear protocol known as the priority of life.

At the top there are the SDF themselves. If they don't get what they need function then everything falls to bits and nobody gets anything.

Coming a very close second behind the SDF you have the civilians.

Last, and very much least you have the ISIL prisoners themselves. They only get what is left after everybody else has gotten what they need.

I should make clear though that the priority of life protocol only comes into effect when there is not enough to go around. It does not advocate starving ISIL prisoners to death.

However neither I, nor the law will stand for innocent civilians being starved to death in order save the lives of ISIL prisoners.

If the prospect of ISIL prisoners starving to death horrifies people, well.

Surely they should take action to make sure that the SDF have everything they need.

21:20 on 27/2/19 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 4, Day 2.

Within Syria there continue to be five main areas of operations.

Reading from right-to-left;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

In the period between mid-December 2018 and January 2019 there were major developments in all five of these areas.

Frustratingly this was also the period I was called away to deal with Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). The infamous Brexit.

In an effort to catch up I have started to look at the developments in the Shangri-La area.

Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3.html

Here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3_20.html

And here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3_21.html

In those posts I looked out how the nature of the operation within Shangri-La has changed.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have been removed from any territory they held in the area. As a result their tactics have shifted from conventional warfare to guerrilla warfare.

Turkey has also emerged as an equal, if not greater threat to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition which controls Shangri-La.

This brings me onto US President Donald Trump's announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18).  That he is immediately withdrawing all US troops from Syria.

I should start by pointing out that moving troops anywhere is an extremely complex business. To the point that a full 20% of the British Army is employed just to do logistics. Their entire job is moving the other 80% of the British Army and its equipment about.

So in terms of military logistics the term; "Immediately" doesn't mean quite the same thing it does in Starbucks.

Troops are at their most vulnerable when they are on the move.

Once you have troops in bases, even on the frontline, you can build strong walls around them to protect them from attack. They're also able to build up large amounts of intelligence and information about the area around the base. Which allows them to stop any attack before it even reaches those walls.

When troops are on the move they are out in the open. They are also constantly travelling through new areas with new enemies and new threats. Ones which are much harder to predict.

At any time the troops which are the most vulnerable are the ones who don't specialise in combat. The people who do logistics, communications, maintenance, catering etc.

Certain combat units, such as artillery units, are also particularly vulnerable when they are on the move. The big guns artillery units use are designed to engage targets a great distance away. Normally at least 1km (0.6 miles) away. Any closer than that and those weapons are useless. Particularly when they've been packed up and loaded onto trucks.

So strange as it sounds if you want to withdraw troops from an area the first thing you have to do is send a load more troops into the area. Their job is to provide force protection. To scout and line the route the troops are travelling along in order to protect them against ambush and attack.

The US military has quite a high state of readiness. However you still need to mobilise this force protection force and make sure it is properly equipped for its task. Before finally moving it to where it's needed.

So in these terms; "immediately" actually means in around 90-100 days.

So an announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) that troops are being withdrawn immediately means you wouldn't expect to see the first troops withdraw until at least March 6th 2019 (6/3/19). At the earliest.

This isn't something I've worked out using my experience. It is something that was made clear in President Trump's announcement. It was mentioned in all of the reporting surrounding the announcement.

Or at least all the reports written by journalists who don't approach every story asking themselves; "How can I use this to make Trump look bad?"

The second thing that I should make clear is that the US troop presence in Syria is extremely small.

Everyone approaching this mission has been clear that this is Iraq and Syria's fight against ISIL. The US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) is only there to support Iraqi and Syrian forces with capabilities they don't posses.

For example back when the war started in 2014 Iraq didn't have an airforce. Primarily due to then US President Obama blocking the delivery of F-16's that Iraq had ordered and paid for. The SDF still don't have an airforce.

So CJTFOIR's role in the fight against ISIL has been to step in and fill that sort of capability gap.

In terms of ground forces the US only has around 2,500 troops in Syria.

A full 2,000 of those are made up of two artillery battalions. They were brought into Shangri-La in the spring of 2017. Just before the Battle for Raqqa City. To perform a specific task. To rain down artillery shells on ISIL's defensive positions. Destroying them.

The other 500 US troops are Special Operations Forces (SOF). It is the nature of what SOF's do that, at any given point, that number might be slightly higher or it might be slightly lower.

SOF's exist to do missions that conventional military forces can't. In areas where conventional forces can't go. They're often a clandestine force sent to places where nations can't officially admit they have troops.

Britain's most famous SOF is the 22nd Squadron, Special Air Service (SAS). They were founded in 1941. During the North Africa campaign of the Second World War.

It says a lot about SOF operations that initially the SAS were never intended to have anything to do with air operations. However they were given the name 22nd Squadron Special Air Service so any Nazi spies would think Britain had a Special Air Service. Not only that it had at least 22 squadrons of planes the Nazi spies needed to find.

Despite being formed in 1941 Britain did not officially acknowledge, and often denied the existence of the SAS. Right up until 1980. When the SAS ended a siege at the Iranian Embassy in central London. Live on TV.

On December 27th 2018 (27/12/18) Trump visited US troops in Iraq. There he had a photograph taken with the Chaplain of the US SOF unit US Navy SEAL Team Five. Trump then put those photographs on Twitter.

This led to Trump's critics blasting him for undermining national security. By revealing the identities and location of this secret SOF unit.

The thing is that SEAL Team Five are not a clandestine unit. Although not widely publicised their deployment in Iraq is certainly not a secret. They even have their own Twitter account.

It is the Osama bin Laden killing SEAL Team Six which does clandestine and covert work. So I certainly couldn't confirm where they've been deployed throughout the battle for the Hajin Pocket.

I should also probably mention that there is a roughly decade old US TV show about a fictional SOF unit called; "The Unit." This has emerged as something of a codebook in the conflict. Fans of the US TV show; "The Mentalist" will certainly recognise The Unit's Chaplain.

In the TV show the SOF unit are designated as the; "303rd Logisitical Studies Group." To disguise their true purpose.

The third thing I should make clear is that Shangri-La is not the only area of Syria where US troops are based. There is also a small deployment within the Central Syria area. At a base near al-Tanf.

This base sits right on the Syria/Iraq/Jordan border. Around 225km (135 miles) south-west of where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria. Which marks the south-eastern boundary of the Shangri-La.

Up until now this base has been designated; "Bobby Sands." However due to Brexit it has been re-designated; "Dollywood." If I told you why it would take all the fun out of it.

Due to the nature of SOF deployments I can't give you an exact number of US troops there. However assuming a total of 500 there is a roughly 300/200 split between Shangri-La and Dollywood.

Dollywood was established as a place to train the Southern Front. A coalition of fighters active in the south of Syria.

If the SDF had been able to establish the boundaries of Shangri-La more promptly Dollywood would have performed a vital strategic function.

Allowing the SDF and the Southern Front to link up with each other. Eliminating ISIL from not only the entire north-east of Syria but also the south and south-west of Syria. Giving CJTFOIR backed troops control over those vast areas of Syria in the process.

However the Syrians were much more alert to this possibility than CJTFOIR were.

So in May 2017 the Syrians began a west-to-east push across the centre on the country. In the north of the country they set out from Aleppo City. In the south of the country they set out from the capital Damascus.

On June 10th 2017 (10/7/17) Syrian forces arrived at al-Tanf and liberated it. In the process they surrounded the Dollywood base on three sides. Cutting it off from not only the SDF but also the Southern Front.

The Syrians then spent much of 2017 and 2018 clearing ISIL, the Army of Conquest and the Southern Front from the south and south-west of the country. Eliminating the Southern Front as a viable fighting force.

As a result the Dollywood base now serves absolutely no military or strategic purpose.

The US however continues to cling on to Dollywood because it sits on the H2 Highway. Running from Iraq to the Syrian capital Damascus. The US claims it needs to keep control over this road to prevent Iran establishing a land bridge across Iraq and Syria in order to attack Israel.

CJTFOIR only has legal authority to operate within Syria in order to fight ISIL and Al Qaeda. America stationing troops within Syria to obstruct the normal diplomatic and trading relationship between Syria, Iraq and Iran is therefore completely illegal under international law.

Perhaps worse than that the Dollywood base doesn't even achieve this objective.

Losing control of a single road does not cripple a nation's entire road network. If it did every country would grind to a halt every time there is a major vehicle crash.

Losing control of a single road also does not stop supplies being flown into a nation. The Dollywood base certainly hasn't stopped Iran flying large amounts of weapons and equipment into Syria.

What makes the H2 Highway so important to the US is that it runs across the border into Iraq. So if the US wanted to deny Syria control of the road they could do that just as effectively from a base on the Iraqi side of the border.

I don't think it is any secret that US National Security Adviser John Bolton harbours a crazy dream of invading Syria from Iraq. After all in 2003 it was he who harboured the crazy dream of invading Iraq. Which I think we can all agree has been a massive success and an immense strategic victory for the US.

If John Bolton's latest fever dream were to come to fruition the first thing the US would have to do is pull its troops at Dollywood back into Iraq. Or risk leaving them exposed while the rest of the invasion force caught up.

So in military terms the US' Dollywood base is utterly useless.

In fact it is worse than useless.

The Dollywood base is surrounded by a roughly 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) exclusion zone. It's petticoats. Syrian troops cannot enter this exclusion zone. While US troops cannot operate outside of this exclusion zone.

The only group that can operate freely amongst these petticoats is ISIL.

So by maintaining the Dollywood base the US is providing ISIL with a 20,000kmsq (12,000 milesq) area where it can operate under de facto US protection. An area which includes the Ruqban Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camp.

CJTFOIR seem well aware of how counter-productive the US' Dollywood base is.

On February 2nd 2019 (2/2/19) CJTFOIR conducted airstrikes against a Syrian barracks on the town of al-Sukkayria.

Sukkayria sits all of 10km (6 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria. It sits directly across the Euphrates from the Hajin Pocket town of Marashidah. Where the SDF were battling ISIL.

This CJTFOIR strike on the Syrians allowed ISIL to cross the Euphrates and break out from the Hajin Pocket. In the direction of Dollywood and its petticoats.

I assume that as news of that incident filtered up the chain of command to US politicians someone pointed out how ridiculous the situation was. With the US simultaneously trying to defeat and help ISIL.

The Dollywood base is being maintained entirely in the name of America protecting Israel from Iran.

Israel seems remarkably unimpressed by the US' efforts. Since the Syrians liberated al-Tanf and encircled Dollywood Israel has massively increased its airstrikes against, particularly Iranian interests in, Syria.

On May 10th 2018 (10/5/18) Israel conducted the largest series of airstrikes against Syria it has undertaken since 1974. When a truce brought to end the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The fact that this war has never officially ended means that Israeli strikes against Syria are technically legal. If not morally correct.

This massive wave of Israeli airstrikes began little more than 30 minutes after President Trump withdrew the US from the Iran Nuclear Deal. On the evening of May 9th 2018 (9/5/18).

So the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest, taking place in Israel, looks like it's going to be fun. The Israelis even seem to bring an air of flamboyant performance to their military actions.

The surprise nature of Trump's troop withdrawal announcement on December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) prompted a mass of discussion. Over what troops the US has in Syria, where they're located and what effect their withdrawal would have.

On December 25th 2018 (25/12/18) Israel conducted another dramatic wave of airstrikes against Syria.

With this being Christmas Day it was pretty much the only news story happening anywhere in Europe and America. So you would think that politicians and military leaders in those areas would be talking of nothing else.

I can only strongly recommend that France in particular looks closely at the detail of those December 25th 2018 (25/12/18) Israeli strikes. So they don't receive any nasty surprises when I do look at them in detail. In the section to which they are most relevant.

So, at best, Israel views the US' Dollywood base as completely irrelevant to its security. At worse it is actively lobbying for the US to withdraw its forces and remove the base.

When it was first established Dollywood was a CJTFOIR base. Operated primarily by Britain and Jordan.

However following the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf both Britain and Jordan realised that the base no longer served any purpose. So they both withdraw their forces in the summer of 2017. Leaving it as an exclusively US base.

So President Trump announcing that Dollywood is to be closed and US forces withdrawn is not something to panic about or protest against. It is a move that is almost two years overdue.

The US' hatred of Iran. Which in this case is completely irrational. Stems from something deep within, almost the DNA of the Republican Party.

In February 1979 Iran underwent its Islamic Revolution. Overthrowing the King or Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Whom the US and the UK had installed in charge of Iran's vast oil reserves in a military coup in 1953.

Then US President Jimmy Carter, of the Democrat Party, responded to the Islamic Revolution by imposing sanctions on Iran. Seizing all Iranian assets within the US. In October 1979 then President Carter went one step further. Granting Mohammad Reza Pahlavi asylum in the US.

The Iranians responded to this by storming the US Embassy in Tehran and taking 52 US citizens hostage. For the next 444 days then President Carter's administration failed to secure the release of the hostages. Including through the ill fated Operation: Eagle Claw rescue mission.

President Carter's failure to rescue the hostages was a significant, possibly even the main, factor in him being defeated at the November 1980 US Presidential Election. By that hero of the US Republican Party President Ronald Reagan.

The release of the hostages was actually timed to coincide with President Reagan's inauguration. On January 20th 1981 (20/11/81).

Since then ranting and raving against Iran has been an easy way to win cheap applause at Republican Party rallies.

What everyone seems to forget is how President Reagan secured the release of the hostages.

President Reagan  reversed President Carter's strategy. Scrapping the sanctions and returning Iran's assets. He then spent much of his term of office selling weapons to Iran. In order to fund Contras in Nicaragua. Something you may have heard of.

So Reagan's legacy on Iran is actually one of abandoning hostility in favour of engagement.

This anti-Iran faction of the Republican Party was led by John McCain, Senator for Arizona. Up until his death on August 25th 2018 (25/8/18). Since then leadership of the faction has fallen to his longtime deputy Lindsay Graham. Senator for South Carolina.

Both McCain and Graham have both treasonously long backed both ISIL and Al Qaeda. Something they have seen as a viable and effective strategy to overthrow the Syrian government. Ending the longstanding alliance between Syria and Iran.

Amongst Republicans it is Senator Graham who has been the most vocal in opposition to President Trump's plan to withdraw US troops from Syria.

On December 30th 2018 (30/12/18) Senator Graham met with President Trump at the White House. Senator Graham emerged from the meeting declaring that he had succeeded in getting Trump to slow down and possibly reverse his decision to withdraw US troops.

Here I'm really not sure what Senator Graham thinks that he achieved. In the morning, before the meeting, the withdrawal timeline was 90-100 days. In the evening, after the meeting, the withdrawal timeline remained at 90-100 days.

On January 19th 2019 (19/1/19) Senator Graham travelled to Turkey. Where he met with Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

To give you an idea of the state of US/Turkey relations at the time National Security Adviser Bolton visited Turkey on January 6th 2019 (6/1/19). There he delievered a message from President Trump. Warning Turkey against attacking the SDF. With or without a US troop withdrawal.

In response Erdogan refused to meet with Bolton. Declaring that it was disrespectful to say the SDF represent Syrians and it was irrational to say that Turkey wants to attack the SDF. Despite Erdogan promising, on an almost daily basis, to attack the SDF.

Since then the mainstream Turkish media have bizarrely started to declare Bolton to be part of a Deep State conspiracy against Trump. Attempting to undermine Trump's supposed promise to Erdogan to allow him to attack the SDF.

I say; "Bizarre." Everyone knows there is a US Deep State conspiracy against President Trump. The Turkish government funded CNN tells you all about it, every day.

However the conspiracy was tasked first with ensuring Hillary Clinton replaced Barack Obama as President. Then failing that to bind President Trump to the pro-Turkey, pro-ISIL policies of former President Obama.

Within places like Turkey and Egypt the existence of these type of Deep State conspiracies is well established. They're openly discussed as a normal part of political discourse.

We just never thought American democracy would ever fall so low.

On his visit to Turkey Senator Graham declared the SDF to be nothing more than an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). He pledged his full support to Erdogan's plan to invade Shangri-La and wipe out the SDF.

So Senator Graham's objections to Trump's troop withdrawal plan are most certainly not because he thinks it will led to the SDF being slaughtered in a Turkish invasion of Shangri-La.

In fact Senator Graham seems perfectly happy to see US troops slaughtered as part of that Turkish invasion.

What Senator Graham is concerned about is the withdrawal of US troops leading to the Dollywood base being closed.

Removing the protection it grants to ISIL.

20:10 on 25/2/19 (UK date).