Operation Featherweight: Month 39, Week 5, Day 1.

In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran northern Iraq.

The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. This semi-autonomous region has it's own Parliament and its own government - the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).

The KRG is headed by regional President Masoud Barzani. Like all the best dictators President Barzani has appointed his son - Nechirvan Barzani - to act as the region's Prime Minister.

The Iraqi Kurdish Region also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.

Following ISIL's arrival President Barzani dispatched the Peshmerga to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.

Having seized Kirkuk the Barzani family became fixated on a crazy plan.

If they could also seize the oilfields around Kirkuk they could use a pipeline into Turkey to sell the stolen oil. This would provide them with the funds to declare Iraq's Kurdish Region to be an independent nation. With the Barzani family ruling as a dynasty of course.

This plan is deeply flawed for two main reasons;

The first is that international law forbids a nation state being created within the borders of an existing nation state without the permission of that existing state.

Therefore the Barzanis could declare Iraq's Kurdish Region to be an independent nation in much the same way I could declare my house to be an independent nation.

However without the consent of Iraq no member of the United Nations could recognise the Iraqi Kurdish Region as a nation state. Nor could they maintain diplomatic contact with let alone support a Kurdish Region that the Barzani's claim is an independent nation.

The second problem is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The President/Prime Minister/Emperor of Iraq's neighbour Turkey. Barzani's plan to fund the Kurdish Region as an independent nation by selling oil through Turkey is entirely dependent on Erdogan.

Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wishes to reestablish Turkey as the Ottoman Empire. At its peak this stretched across the entire Middle-East and parts of Europe and North Africa.

Within the Ottoman Empire there was a Kurdish Region. This was populated by people who identified as Kurdish and spoke the Kurdish language.

When the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of the First World War the allied powers were going to create the Ottoman Kurdish Region as the independent nation state of Kurdistan. However the discovery of oil in places like Kirkuk changed their minds. This was known as the Sykes-Picot agreement.

ISIL were created by Erdogan with the support of the US to bring an end to the Sykes-Picot agreement and re-establish first the Ottoman Kurdish Region. Therefore you would have to be insane to think that Erdogan would support the Barzanis to establish Iraq's Kurdish Region as a nation state.

I have no doubt that Erdogan would accept Kirkuk's oil via a Barzani run pipeline. What he will certainly not do though is hand the revenues from those oil sales back to Iraq's Kurds.

Despite the obvious flaws with their plan being repeatedly pointed out to them and years of pleading by the international community for them to see sense the Barzanis have kept pushing away with their pipedream.

This has caused no end of problems both for the fight against ISIL and for the region's Kurds.

In the spring of 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the cities of Tikrit and Baiji from ISIL. These sit 120km (70 miles) and 105km (60 miles) south-west of Kirkuk respectively.

Having liberated Tikrit and Baiji the logical next step would be for the ISF to liberate the area between those cities and Kirkuk. Centred around the town of Hawija this has become known as the; "Hawija Triangle."

However the Barzanis would not allow the ISF to enter Kirkuk in order to conduct the operation. So since then ISIL have been protected by the Barzanis within the Hawija Triangle. They've used the area to conduct numerous attacks against civilians within Kirkuk and beyond.

In December 2015 Erdogan was desperate to send regular Turkish forces into Syria to fight the Syrian Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) on behalf of ISIL. To test the diplomatic waters for this Erdogan first sent a few thousand Turkish troops into Iraq's Kurdish Region where they set up a base at Bashiqa - close to the city of Mosul.

Erdogan's deployment of troops to Bashiqa which at the time was on the ISIL side of the Mosul frontline was met with near universal condemnation leading to Erdogan's planned attack Syria's Kurds was shelved. The Barzanis however fully supported Erdogan's deployment to Bashiqa and continue to support it.

Despite Erdogan's December 2015 invasion plans being shelved his aggression towards Kurds has continued with airstrikes in Turkey, Syria and Iraq's Kurdish Region. These attacks have been universally condemned including by the government Iraq. However they have been supported by the Barzanis allowing them to continue.

In no small part due to the support of the Barzanis Erdogan was finally able to invade Syria in August 2016.

He sent troops to occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road." This sits between the Kurdish held "Shangri-La" area and the Kurdish held "Afrin Canton" area.

Erdogan's invasion was intended to stop Syria's Kurds from linking these two areas under their control. From Garvaghy Road Erdogan has repeatedly attacked Syrian Kurds in both Shangri-La and Afrin Canton.

Having invaded Garvaghy Road Erdogan with the help of former US President Barack Obama then set about trying to oust the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from the SDF coalition. This effort was twofold establishing the Syrian Arab Council (SAC) within the SDF and providing a rival Kurdish force known as the Roj Peshmerga.

The Barzanis were more than happy to assist Erdogan in this effort training the Roj Peshmerga at the Turkish Bashiqa camp and other camps within Iraq's Kurdish Region. In March 2017 the Barzanis even sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) - an element of the ISF - at Sinjar/Shingal.

What I would have liked to be writing about today are the latest developments in the SDF's battle to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from ISIL. In the past couple of days they have struck a deal which saw a large number of ISIL fighters surrender.

Residents of the Iraqi city of Mosul have been asking why a similar deal wasn't reached to prevent their city being destroyed in the effort to liberate it from ISIL. The simple answer to that is the Mosul operation was so poorly planned the option never arose whereby ISIL would consider surrendering.

When the Mosul operation was launched in October 2017 former President Obama's only concern was the November 2016 US Presidential Election. He wanted headlines about ISIL being ousted from Mosul to help propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in that election.

Beyond that Obama put absolutely no thought into planning the Mosul operation. This lack of planning was obvious to all other members of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

As a result as the start of the Mosul operation approached there was an intense international effort to have it delayed until it could be properly planned out. This effort included the Iraqi government.

However as they did with the Bashiqa camp and the airstrikes the Barzanis again broke with the international consensus and pressed for the Mosul operation to start. It was actually Turkish troops which the Barzanis have continued to allow to be stationed at the Bashiqa camp that fired the first shots of the Mosul battle on October 16th (16/10/17).

While the ISF and CJTFOIR were fighting a 216 day battle to liberate Mosul the Barzanis and the Peshmerga were essentially on holiday.

Shirking the responsibility for fighting ISIL the Barzanis instead used this as an opportunity to put their pipedream into action. They called a vote for September 25th (25/9/17) on declaring the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state.

This vote was called without the consent of the Iraqi government. As such it can in no way be considered a referendum under international law.

In calling this vote the Barzanis also completely disregarded the laws of the Iraqi Kurdish Region itself.

Masoud Barzani's term as Kurdish Regional President actually expired all the way back in 2015. However rather than face re-election he used the fight against ISIL as excuse to suspended the Kurdish Regional Parliament. That Parliament did not resume its work until the vote had been called. While the fight against ISIL was continuing.

The Barzanis also held the vote outside of the borders of the Iraqi Kurdish Region. This included in areas such as Kirkuk, Mosul and Sinjar/Shingal where people reported being intimidated into voting by the Peshmerga force.

In calling their vote the Barzanis compared it to the similar vote being held in the Catalonia region of Spain a week later on October 1st (1/10/17). In part this comparison led to Catalonia suffering a series of Islamist terror attacks on August 18th (18/8/17).

So the Spanish government turned the Catalonia vote into an example showing just how unpopular the Barzanis and their pipedream are amongst the international community.

The main part of this effort involved the Spanish Federal police being sent to Catalonia to use force to prevent the October 1st (1/10/17) vote taking place. Amid scenes of elderly women being pulled from polling stations by their hair this police violence is said to have injured 900+ and resulted in the death of at least one person.

That stood in stark contrast to the highly restrained way that Iraq had responded to the Barzanis equally illegal vote. Despite all the Barzanis claims of Shia and Iranian oppression no action was taken to prevent the September 25th (25/9/17) vote from taking place.

As it was always known they would following the October 1st (1/10/17) vote the Catalonia region has now abandoned plans to declare independence. In effect acknowledging that the vote could in no way be considered a referendum.

That leaves the Barzanis looking extremely isolated in pretending they in any way held a referendum let alone one that allows them to claim the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state.

While the Barzanis have been showing off the ISF have been quietly getting to work liberating the Hawija Triangle from ISIL.

As I've said I've always considered the liberation of the Hawija Triangle as part of the Tikrit operation rather than an operation in itself. Having gained the experience of liberating Mosul the ISF were able to quickly sweep through the Hawija Triangle all but liberating it on October 5th (5/10/17).

The final part of the Hawija Triangle operation is the securing of the Kirkuk oil fields which sit to the north-east. On a tactical level this means securing control over the K1 Military Base and Kirkuk Regional Air Base which sit on the south-western outskirts of Kirkuk City. Those bases were established because they control access to the Kirkuk oil fields.

What should have happened is that the Peshmerga peacefully negotiate the return of that base area to the ISF. However the Barzanis are still pumped up in their false belief they are the leaders of an independent nation which has some right to Iraq's oil fields. So they refused to negotiate.

On Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi government government gave the Peshmerga until 00:00 (02:00 local) on Sunday (15/10/17) to vacate the locations and hand them back to the ISF.

The Barzanis though refused and ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF for control of the oil fields.

This puts the Barzanis in an absolutely untenable position. It means they are waging war against Iraq just like ISIL have done. If that is the path they choose there is little option other than for the Iraqi government to treat them like ISIL by arresting them and putting them on trial for treason. An offence that carries the death penalty.

The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. The Iraqi government's response was to wait a further 24 hours to give the Barzanis time to consider their position and negotiate.

The Barzanis refused so at 00:00 (02:00 local) this morning the ISF moved in to secure Kirkuk's oil fields.

This has created a very dynamic situation which seems to be changing minute-by-minute. Also the Iraqi government and the Rudaw news outlet which is run by the Barzani family have been engaging in an intense propaganda war with frequent and conflicting claims.

However is seems that the Peshmerga have sensibly disregarded the Barzanis illegal orders and allowed the ISF to take control over the K1 Bases and by extension Kirkuk's oil fields.

Though with the Peshmerga doing their lawful duty the Barzanis have resorted to calling on Kirkuk's Kurdish residents to take up arms. This has led to those Kurdish residents attacking  Kirkuk's other ethnic groups such as Turkmen.

We are now waiting to see if the ISF will enter Kirkuk city and what sort of illegal resistance the Barzanis will conduct if they do.

16:20 on 16/10/17 (UK date).