Friday 13 October 2017

Operation Featherweight: Month 39, Week 4, Day 5.

On November 6th 2016 (6/11/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) launched an operation to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The SDF are a coalition of Kurdish, Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.

The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

The city of Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River. It is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 100km (60 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. It has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.

The first stage of the SDF's operation was to advance on Raqqa from three directions; North, West and East. This was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at al-Karamah - around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam which forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River. This operation was completed on May 11th (11/5/17) giving the SDF control of positions on the southern banks of the Euphrates some 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.

On June 6th (6/6/17) the operation to liberate Raqqa itself was begun.

ISIL's plan for the defence of Raqqa appears to have been built around establishing a sort of main headquarters within the central areas of the city. Roughly in the area between the an-Nadah district to the west and the Old City district to the east.

This believed main headquarters actually stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah, Amin and what is known as the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the Municipal Football Stadium.

ISIL seemed to assume that the SDF would attack from the north. As a result they established the bulk of their defences to the north of the city. Roughly between the old Syrian Army - Division 17 - base and the area of their main headquarters.

Instead what the SDF actually did was attack in three directions; The North, The West and the East. At the same time the SDF swept west-to-east from Tabqa along the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to isolate Raqqa from the main body of Syria.

The northern axis' first task was to liberate the Division 17 base. They completed that task on or around August 1st (1/8/17) before entering into a holding pattern.

The SDF's western axis entered the Raqqa via the Jazra suburb. By July 3rd (3/7/17) it had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.

The SDF's eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) it had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.

On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates.

On July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

On August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This linked the eastern and western axis liberating the south of Raqqa from ISIL.

The SDF then set about liberating the districts which sit between the eastern and western outskirts and the area of ISIL's believed main headquarters.

On September 2nd (2/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in fully liberating the Old City district. This sits north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district, west of the al-Sinaa district and one city block east of the Harun al-Rashid Gardens.

On September 8th (8/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Darayeh district. This sits directly north of the Shahada district and directly west of the al-Moroor district.

On September 10th (10/9/17) the western axis liberated the al-Moroor district itself. This also sits directly north of the Shahada district, directly west of the Security Box.

In doing this the SDF liberated a number of the key buildings that make up ISIL's believed headquarters.

On August 28th (28/8/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Children's Hospital Complex. This is located on the junction between Shahada district, al-Moroor district and the Security Box. It had long been used by ISIL as a military base and a command & control centre.

On September 6th (6/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Court House and Criminal Security complex. This sits north of where al-Moroor district meets an-Nadah district and is directly across the road from the National Hospital Complex.

On September 12th (12/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis liberated the Governate Building. This sits directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district roughly 200 metres/yards or one city block south of Harun al-Rashid Gardens.

On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL finally realised that their central headquarters were being overrun from the south, west and east. This prompted them to withdraw their forces from the north of the city in an attempt to defend the central area.

This triggered a mass collapse in ISIL's defences. In the space of little more than a day the SDF were able to fully liberate the Tishrin, al-Rawdah and Ramilah districts which sits to its north-east of the city. They were also able to liberate the Grain Storage area which sits to the north of al-Thawrah district and east of the Railway Depot/Station directly adjacent to Ramilah district.

In liberating the al-Rawdah district the SDF's eastern axis were also able to liberate the Dalla Roundabout junction and advance to the Naem Roundabout junction. This divides the area containing Harun al-Rashid Gardens to the south from the area containing the Municipal Football Stadium to the north-west.

ISIL's September 20th (20/9/17) collapse also allowed the SDF to liberate a number of the key landmarks that make up ISIL's central headquarters area.

In quick succession they liberated Harun al-Rashid Gardens and the Air Force Intelligence building which sits directly to its north. They also liberated the April 7th Garden and the Children's Garden. These sit close to the National Hospital Complex.

On September 25th (25/9/17) the SDF also liberated the al-Tawleed Hospital complex. This sits directly east of the Children's Garden in the area between the Naem Roundabout junction on the Municipal Football Stadium. In liberating the al-Tawleed Hospital complex the SDF united their eastern and western axis in the centre of the city.

On September 23rd (23/9/17) they liberated the Al Firdous Mosque. This sits directly across the road from the Children's Garden to the north-west.

On September 25th (25/9/17) they liberated the Imam Nawawi Mosque. This sits roughly in the centre of the an-Nadah district.

Immediately following ISIL's September 20th (20/9/17) collapse the northern axis moved from their holding pattern and began advancing south.

By September 29th (29/9/17) the northern axis had succeeded in liberating the Ba'ath and Andalus districts. These sit between the Divison 17 base and Railway Station/Depot. They had also succeeded in liberating the Railway Station/Depot itself.

By Tuesday (3/10/17) the northern had succeeded in liberating the area between the Railway Station/Depot and the main road which runs between the Military Intelligence building in al-Wahdah district and Train Square in Thawrah district.

These rapid gains mean that ISIL are now limited to a small area in the north of the city. This area is a rough "V" shape with the Naem Roundabout junction at its tip spanning out north to include parts of al-Wahdah, Hurriyah and Thawrah districts.

ISIL however does hold on to just two of the key landmarks in what used to be considered its main headquarters in Raqqa. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium which is sometimes known as; "The Black Stadium."

What has delayed the liberation of the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium complexes is that ISIL have kidnapped the civilians in the surrounding area.

ISIL have forced those potentially thousands of civilians into the buildings at the two locations and are using them as human shields. It is believed ISIL have rigged the buildings with explosives and are prepared to use heavy weapons to defend them.

As a result operations at those locations are not so much traditional warfare. Instead they more closely resemble urban hostage rescue operations. With both locations covering large areas containing multi-level buildings they are both extremely complex hostage rescue situations.

The situation at the Municipal Football Stadium seems to be completely without precedent. Or certainly any precedent I can recall.

The situation at the National Hospital seems similar to several previous situations. The November 2008 Taj Mahal Hotel siege in Mumbai, India. The October 2002 Dubrovka Theatre siege in Moscow, Russia. The September 2004 School Number One siege in Beslan, Russia.

None of those scenarios played out particularly well for the hostages.

Within the northern area which I think has to be dubbed the; "Victory Zone" fighting has returned to its usual tempo. This involves buildings slowly being liberated window-by-window, room-by-room and street-by-street.

Following the rapid gains of the September 20th (20/9/17) collapse this may seem as though the SDF's operations have slowed. However it is just them returning to the expected pace.

The SDF's east-to-west sweep south of Raqqa achieved its primary objective of cutting Raqqa of from the main body of Syria on June 29th (29/6/17). On July 30th (30/7/17) it was forced to stop its advance after taking up positions just north of the town of Dalhah around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

What stopped the SDF's west-to-east advance was not ISIL but the Syrians themselves. Since May they have been advancing east from Aleppo City to liberate the north of the country from ISIL. On July 30th (30/7/17) they reached Dalhah.

While the presence of the Syrians has prevented the SDF from advancing on the southern bank of the Euphrates it has not stopped them advancing on the northern banks. Starting from al-Karamah they advanced some 100km (60 miles) past Madan to roughly the Jubaylah area. This is around 10km (6 miles) north of Deir-ez-Zour City.

Alongside side their operation to liberate Raqqa City the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Cizre Storm" on September 9th (9/9/17).

The starting point for the operation is the Madan-Shaddadi Line.

This stretches from the town of Madan on the banks of the Euphrates River around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City to the town of Shaddadi on the banks of the Khobar River around 100km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

The objective of the operation is for the SDF to advance some 200km (120 miles) south-east from the Madan-Shaddadi Line to Syria's border with Iraq.

This will see the SDF advance across the Khobar River basin allowing them to use the Euphrates River as the boundary of the area under their control designated; "Shangri-La." It will also see the SDF take control of a number of key oil fields keeping them out of the hands of both ISIL and the Syrian government.

On September 13th (13/9/17) the SDF reached the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City. They did this by extending a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shaddadi Line to the Industrial Zone.

Following an unfortunate delay the second phase of the operation was launched on September 20th (20/9/17). This saw the SDF advance from the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone towards the Khobar River on three axis.

The first axis set out to advance south-east from the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City along the north bank of the Euphrates. This axis is heading the general direction of al-Zuwaymiyah - a village on the junction of where the Khobar reaches the Euphrates. However the objective is to clear all of the area between the Industrial Zone and the Khobar River.

The second axis set out to advance east from the Madan-Shaddadi Line - Industrial Zone corridor. This axis is headed in the direction of as-Suwar - a town sitting on the banks of the Khobar around 50km (30 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour city.

The third axis set out to advance south from Shaddadi to the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar around 45km (25 miles) south of Shaddadi and around 95km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

The first axis has now reached the area around the village of al-Zuwaymiyah. In the process it has liberated the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields and the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.

On September 26th (26/9/17) the second axis reached the town of as-Suwar and declared it fully liberated.

On October 4th (4/10/17) the third axis reached the town of Markadah. However it's liberation has not yet been confirmed.

The second and third axis are now advancing north and south respectively in an effort to unite between as-Suwar and Markadah. At current estimates they are around 5km (3 miles) away from each other.

16:55 on 13/10/17 (UK date).

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