This is something I've been meaning to post even before the Harvey Weinstein scandal broke but always found myself distracted. Although it might seem irrelevant at this point I feel I must finally get it out of my system.
Back in August 2017 the UK government funded Channel 4 network broadcast a drama mini-series about the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) entitled; "The State."
As I briefly mentioned at the time Channel 4 is a network that absolutely craves controversy and attention. Therefore I decided it was best to ignore it rather than rise to their bait.
It must be said though that I was absolutely appalled by the way this program covered the Yezidi Genocide. Particularly the way that ISIL kidnapped Yezidi women and girls in order to rape them and use them as sexual slaves.
This was portrayed by the character "Jalal." This British ISIL fighter was shown buying a Yezidi woman and her pubescent daughter at a slave auction. He then brought the pair back to his mansion but rather than raping them he gave the both a nice room, cooked and cared for them both.
Eventually in response to Jalal's kindness the Yezidi woman decided to give herself sexually to him in scenes that seemed almost romantic.
I would say that you could imagine the outrage if rape had been portrayed on UK TV in this way in any other context.
The fact is though that we don't need to imagine. In September the ITV network broadcast a drama mini-series; "Liar." This provided a clear example of the only context rape is normally allowed to be portrayed on UK TV.
The premise of the show was that a couple go on a date. The following morning the woman accuses the man of raping her. However the events are not shown. The intention being that suspense would build over the episodes as the viewer tried to work out whether the man or the woman was the liar.
That suspense never materialised though because the whole thing was a massive rip-off of the 1997 BBC drama film; "In Your Dreams." This was one of the things that really helped launch the career of British actress Thandie Newton.
They did though jazz it up for the modern era by having the woman use social media to publicly accuse the man of rape. That led to the police warning her she was jeopardising her case and her being sued for libel.
What really ruined the suspense though is that you always knew deep down that there is no way that a network would dare run a show in which a woman making a rape allegation is shown to be a liar. The social media backlash would be enormous.
In fact the fear of the backlash from the virtue signallers was so great that the show revealed the man was the liar in about episode three of six. Having given up on its core premise the show then just descended into absolute nonsense.
For example at one point the woman drugged the man and kidnapped as a way of filing a false rape report. However the man escaped only to be stopped by a policewoman who was happy to conspire with the woman to falsely imprison him for rape.
Obviously what Ioan Gruffudd's character would have done at that point is go to hospital, have himself tested for drugs and accused the woman and the policewoman of assault, kidnap and perverting the course of justice. That would have led to both women being sent to prison.
An ultimate victory for a character that is portrayed as a woman hating control freak. Also a storyline that would have been much more dramatic if you didn't know who the liar was.
Unfortunately the guardians of virtue on social media wouldn't allow for this sort of emotionally and intellectually challenging storyline. So instead we got six hours of politically correct speeches including dialogue such as;
"Isn't is appalling. Only 5% of rape allegations result in conviction."
That particular slogan is actually completely factually incorrect. On average in the UK 30% of rape allegations result in conviction;
5% where the accused is convicted. 25% where the accuser is convicted after the accusation is found beyond all reasonable doubt to be both false and malicious.
Back in August 2017 one of those 25% of case made headlines. Jemma Beale was jailed for 10 years after making false rape allegations against 9 men.
In commenting on the case a woman on one of those news/newspaper review shows said; "It's only making news because it's so rare."
The only response to that is; "No it's not rare. It fact rape accusations being found to be false is the norm. Rape allegations being found to be true is the exception."
So in summary attitudes to rape in the UK at least have got to the point where you cannot state facts about rape in a political discussion about rape.
Unless of course the rapist is a Muslim. In which case apparently it's romantic.
And on that slightly incoherent point I feel I should remind you; It's Tuesday and I've been to the pub.
23:25 on 31/10/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 31 October 2017
Monday, 30 October 2017
The Day the Muelling Died?
In November 2016 the US held a Presidential Election as it does every four years.
This saw Hillary Clinton representing the Democrat Party face off against Donald Trump representing the Republican Party.
As with other members of his Democrat Party the then incumbent President Barack Obama was desperate for Hillary Clinton to replace him. This would allow his policies including the US support for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to be continued.
At the time ISIL were being cruelly oppressed by Russia - something that continues to this day. Therefore the Democrats thought all they needed to do was link Trump to Russia and Americans shared support for ISIL would propel Hillary Clinton to victory.
To this end the Democrats paid some US$9million to a British company called Fusion GPS. Their task was to invent stories linking Trump to Russia.
Obviously this strategy failed, Hillary Clinton was defeated and Donald Trump became President of the US.
Displaying an alarming attitude towards the democratic process the Democrats simply refused to accept the will of the people. Instead they set about trying to disrupt and ultimately overthrow the US government. This included endlessly repeating their invented stories linking Trump to Russia.
In May 2017 a Special Counsel investigation was opened into the Democrats claims. It is headed by Robert Mueller who given the Democrats mewling seems an appropriate choice.
A Special Counsel investigation is really the most powerful weapon in the arsenal of the US legal system.
It gets to act almost as Judge, Jury and Executioner without the levels of oversight that restrict more normal criminal investigations. For example unlike the police a Special Counsel investigation can issue subpoenas compelling witness testimony and access to private documents without the permission of a Judge.
In late June/early July 2017 Mueller's Special Counsel investigation secret impanelled a Grand Jury. This was only made public in early August 2017.
A Grand Jury is really only one of few checks on the vast powers of a Special Counsel investigation. Before a Special Counsel like Mueller can move from investigation to prosecution they must first convince a Jury made up of the general public that there is sufficient evidence to warrant an accusation being made.
For four months Mueller has been trying to convince this particular Grand Jury that there is evidence to warrant the Democrats accusations of links between President Trump and Russia. On Friday (27/10/17) Mueller won his first argument and accusations were formally levelled against two individuals.
Today (30/10/17) the identity of the two indicted individuals and the accusations levelled against them have been made public. They are Paul Manafort who served as President Trump's campaign manager and his business partner Richard Gates.
The accusation against the pair is that they attempted to evade paying US taxes on money they earned doing work for the Ukrainian government back in 2012.
This accusation actually encompasses 12 separate charges including tax evasion, money laundering and conspiracy to commit those offences. It also includes a charge of failing to register as a foreign agent of Ukraine - something that would have informed the US government the pair were being paid by Ukraine and therefore eligible to be taxed.
In short the accusations have absolutely nothing to do with either President Trump or Russia. They actually date back to a period when Mitt Romney representing the Republican Party was challenging Barack Obama for the Presidency.
The Special Counsel investigation's apparent failure to find anything to warrant the Democrat's accusations linking President Trump to Russia does raise serious questions over whether it can continue.
Obviously what Manafort and Gates have been accused of are crimes. Therefore if they have committed them they should expect to be prosecuted.
However the Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution protects US citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures. This has its ideological roots in the British Magna Carta or 1215. It's purpose is to prevent corrupt politicians persecuting opponents on the off chance they may have committed some crime in the past or may commit some crime in the future.
The search and seizure that Manafort and Gates have been subjected to has been deemed reasonable by the Office of the Special Prosecutor. That office takes its authority for the 1978 Civil Service Reform Act.
As the name suggests the Office of the Special Prosecutor is concerned with enforcing standards within the US civil service. Particularly concerning the 1939 Hatch Act which prevents public employees playing a political role, the 1989 Whistleblower Protection Act and the 1994 Uniformed Services Employment Act which cover protections for employees.
The Office of the Special Prosecutor only really covers public officials rather than private citizens such as Manafort and Gates.
The searches and seizures that Manafort and Gates have been subjected have been authorised with the purpose of investigating the Democrats accusations linking President Trump with Russia are valid.
The accusations levelled against Manafort and Gates relate to their 2012 working relationship with Ukraine. Something which has absolutely nothing to do with the purpose of Mueller's Special Counsel investigation.
Therefore constitutionally it is quite hard to argue that this very heavy weapon can continue to be used to harass private citizens simply because their political affiliations differ from the Democrat Party.
15:55 on 30/10/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 16:30 on 30/10/17 (UK date) to add;
While I was writing the above its emerged that separately from the Manafort and Gates indictments Trump campaign worker George Papadopoulous has plead guilty to a charge of lying to investigation. This really highlights how without proper oversight these investigations can become self-sustaining and therefore never ending.
It seems that Mueller has tried to convince the Grand Jury that Papadoupoulous had colluded with Russia. However the Grand Jury has found that there is nothing to warrant that accusation.
So to save face Mueller has instead accused Papadopoulous of lying to the investigation. An offence that only exists because Mueller is conducting an investigation that a Grand Jury has found to be unwarranted.
This saw Hillary Clinton representing the Democrat Party face off against Donald Trump representing the Republican Party.
As with other members of his Democrat Party the then incumbent President Barack Obama was desperate for Hillary Clinton to replace him. This would allow his policies including the US support for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to be continued.
At the time ISIL were being cruelly oppressed by Russia - something that continues to this day. Therefore the Democrats thought all they needed to do was link Trump to Russia and Americans shared support for ISIL would propel Hillary Clinton to victory.
To this end the Democrats paid some US$9million to a British company called Fusion GPS. Their task was to invent stories linking Trump to Russia.
Obviously this strategy failed, Hillary Clinton was defeated and Donald Trump became President of the US.
Displaying an alarming attitude towards the democratic process the Democrats simply refused to accept the will of the people. Instead they set about trying to disrupt and ultimately overthrow the US government. This included endlessly repeating their invented stories linking Trump to Russia.
In May 2017 a Special Counsel investigation was opened into the Democrats claims. It is headed by Robert Mueller who given the Democrats mewling seems an appropriate choice.
A Special Counsel investigation is really the most powerful weapon in the arsenal of the US legal system.
It gets to act almost as Judge, Jury and Executioner without the levels of oversight that restrict more normal criminal investigations. For example unlike the police a Special Counsel investigation can issue subpoenas compelling witness testimony and access to private documents without the permission of a Judge.
In late June/early July 2017 Mueller's Special Counsel investigation secret impanelled a Grand Jury. This was only made public in early August 2017.
A Grand Jury is really only one of few checks on the vast powers of a Special Counsel investigation. Before a Special Counsel like Mueller can move from investigation to prosecution they must first convince a Jury made up of the general public that there is sufficient evidence to warrant an accusation being made.
For four months Mueller has been trying to convince this particular Grand Jury that there is evidence to warrant the Democrats accusations of links between President Trump and Russia. On Friday (27/10/17) Mueller won his first argument and accusations were formally levelled against two individuals.
Today (30/10/17) the identity of the two indicted individuals and the accusations levelled against them have been made public. They are Paul Manafort who served as President Trump's campaign manager and his business partner Richard Gates.
The accusation against the pair is that they attempted to evade paying US taxes on money they earned doing work for the Ukrainian government back in 2012.
This accusation actually encompasses 12 separate charges including tax evasion, money laundering and conspiracy to commit those offences. It also includes a charge of failing to register as a foreign agent of Ukraine - something that would have informed the US government the pair were being paid by Ukraine and therefore eligible to be taxed.
In short the accusations have absolutely nothing to do with either President Trump or Russia. They actually date back to a period when Mitt Romney representing the Republican Party was challenging Barack Obama for the Presidency.
The Special Counsel investigation's apparent failure to find anything to warrant the Democrat's accusations linking President Trump to Russia does raise serious questions over whether it can continue.
Obviously what Manafort and Gates have been accused of are crimes. Therefore if they have committed them they should expect to be prosecuted.
However the Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution protects US citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures. This has its ideological roots in the British Magna Carta or 1215. It's purpose is to prevent corrupt politicians persecuting opponents on the off chance they may have committed some crime in the past or may commit some crime in the future.
The search and seizure that Manafort and Gates have been subjected to has been deemed reasonable by the Office of the Special Prosecutor. That office takes its authority for the 1978 Civil Service Reform Act.
As the name suggests the Office of the Special Prosecutor is concerned with enforcing standards within the US civil service. Particularly concerning the 1939 Hatch Act which prevents public employees playing a political role, the 1989 Whistleblower Protection Act and the 1994 Uniformed Services Employment Act which cover protections for employees.
The Office of the Special Prosecutor only really covers public officials rather than private citizens such as Manafort and Gates.
The searches and seizures that Manafort and Gates have been subjected have been authorised with the purpose of investigating the Democrats accusations linking President Trump with Russia are valid.
The accusations levelled against Manafort and Gates relate to their 2012 working relationship with Ukraine. Something which has absolutely nothing to do with the purpose of Mueller's Special Counsel investigation.
Therefore constitutionally it is quite hard to argue that this very heavy weapon can continue to be used to harass private citizens simply because their political affiliations differ from the Democrat Party.
15:55 on 30/10/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 16:30 on 30/10/17 (UK date) to add;
While I was writing the above its emerged that separately from the Manafort and Gates indictments Trump campaign worker George Papadopoulous has plead guilty to a charge of lying to investigation. This really highlights how without proper oversight these investigations can become self-sustaining and therefore never ending.
It seems that Mueller has tried to convince the Grand Jury that Papadoupoulous had colluded with Russia. However the Grand Jury has found that there is nothing to warrant that accusation.
So to save face Mueller has instead accused Papadopoulous of lying to the investigation. An offence that only exists because Mueller is conducting an investigation that a Grand Jury has found to be unwarranted.
Wednesday, 25 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 2, Day 1.
This should really be read as a continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/operation-featherweight-month-40-week-2.html
The Cizre Storm operation was really launched in response to a similar operation being conducted by the Syrians themselves.
Alongside ISIL the Syrians have also been battling the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah. This is a coalition of Islamist forces which is headed by Al Qaeda's Syrian branch and is allied to ISIL.
In May 2017 the Astana Process on Syria saw an agreement between the Syrians and the Army of Conquest. Fighting between them would be suspended in four designated zones within Syria. This allowed the Syrians and their Russian backers to focus all of their attention of defeating ISIL.
This is what the Syrians immediately set about doing clearing ISIL from the centre of the country both in the north from Aleppo City and in the south from the capital Damascus.
On June 9th (9/6/17) Syrians forces in the south reached the town of al-Tanf. This is located on Syria's border with Iraq around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
On June 4th (4/6/17) Syrian forces in the north liberated the town of Maskanah. This sits on the banks of Lake Assad around 90km (50 miles) west of Raqqa this was the last ISIL occupied town within Aleppo Province.
Having liberated Maskanah the Syrians have diverted around SDF-held Tabqa and Raqqa. On July 30th (30/7/17) they liberated the town of Dalhah around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
In liberating Dalhah the Syrians blocked the advance of the SDF. As part of the operation to liberate Raqqa the SDF had been conducting a west-to-east sweep along the southern bank of the Euphrates. At the time this had been advancing on Dalhah from Ukayrishah some 10km (6 miles) north-west towards Raqqa.
The Syrian forces in Palmyra and Dalhah then converged on the town of as-Suknah. This sits around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa and 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra.
From as-Suknah the Syrians then advanced around 120km (70 miles) north-east to the city of Deir-ez-Zour. On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians reached Deir-ez-Zour relieving their forces that had been besieged there by ISIL since March 2014.
In reaching Deir-ez-Zour city the Syrians established a line of control between as-Suknah and Deir-ez-Zour City. The Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
Having broken the siege on Deir-ez-Zour the Syrians then set about clearing the area to the north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line to the Euphrates. This was completed on September 24th (24/9/17) with the liberation of Madan itself.
While the Syrians were focused on clearing the area to the north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line ISIL attacked the line from the south.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL forces in Mayadin launched their "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." This was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive. By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin.
On October 9th (9/10/17) the Syrians liberated the Shibli and Kahfri Farms along with Mayadin Airport. These all sit in the south-east of the city.
On October 13th (13/10/17) the Syrians took control of the bridge that links Mayadin with the Diban area on the north bank of the Euphrates. This effectively left Mayadin completely encircled with ISIL trapped inside.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians made their final move and liberated Mayadin in one fell swoop.
While the Syrians were liberating Mayadin from ISIL they also liberated the Saroukh Mountains on October 10th (10/10/17). These overlook the what at that point is the M20 Motorway running between as-Suknah and Palmyra. Control of the mountains gives the Syrians complete control of the road.
The Syrians have also been working to liberate Deir-ez-Zour City.
Although Deir-ez-Zour City was almost completely overrun by ISIL in March 2014 the Syrians have always been able to keep control of two distinct areas of the city.
To the west the Syrians retained control of an area stretching from their 137th Brigade base into the south-west of the city up to the Cemetery area. To the east they retained control of an area stretching from the Airport complex into the south-east of the city up to the al-Rasafah district.
When the Syrians broke the siege on the city on September 5th (5/9/17) they did so by entering via the 137th Brigade base. On September 9th (9/9/17) they crossed the Cemetery area reaching the Harabesh Quarter district. This linked the west and eastern parts of Deir-ez-Zour city held by the Syrians lifting the siege on the Airport complex.
From the Airport area the Syrians then advanced north into the Saqr Island and Jafra areas. These sit directly on the south-eastern outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City. On September 19th (19/9/17) they crossed onto the north bank of the Euphrates into the al-Jafra farms area.
The Syrians then continued to advance on the north bank of the Euphrates taking control of the al-Hatlah Tahtani area. On October 10th (10/10/17) they liberated the Hatlah al-Shargiyah and Asus areas. This gave them control of the H7 Highway bridge across the Euphrates trapping ISIL in the southern portion of the city.
On October 13th (13/10/17) the Syrians advanced north-west from the Hatlah al-Shargiyah to take liberate the adjacent as-Salhiyah district. This gave them control of more of the H7 Highway including the al-Halabieh Roundabout Junction.
Taking control of the al-Salhiyah district also put the Syrians in contact with the SDF who control the adjacent al-Husayniyah area. On October 18th (18/10/17) the Syrians liberated the al-Mahatlah and al-Shababat districts. These sit between the al-Husayniyah district and the Industrial Zone creating a risk that the SDF will be cut off in the al-Husaniyah district.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians also started advancing within the main body of Deir-ez-Zour on the south bank of the Euphrates. From the Cemetery area they advanced north into the Port Said district. This sits between the Cemetery area and the Old Airport District which contains the city's Municipal Stadium.
On October 16th (16/10/17) the Syrians were able to claim that they had liberated every town, village and farm on the south bank of the Euphrates between Deir-ez-Zour City and Mayadin.
16:45 on 25/10/17 (UK date).
The Cizre Storm operation was really launched in response to a similar operation being conducted by the Syrians themselves.
Alongside ISIL the Syrians have also been battling the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah. This is a coalition of Islamist forces which is headed by Al Qaeda's Syrian branch and is allied to ISIL.
In May 2017 the Astana Process on Syria saw an agreement between the Syrians and the Army of Conquest. Fighting between them would be suspended in four designated zones within Syria. This allowed the Syrians and their Russian backers to focus all of their attention of defeating ISIL.
This is what the Syrians immediately set about doing clearing ISIL from the centre of the country both in the north from Aleppo City and in the south from the capital Damascus.
On June 9th (9/6/17) Syrians forces in the south reached the town of al-Tanf. This is located on Syria's border with Iraq around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
On June 4th (4/6/17) Syrian forces in the north liberated the town of Maskanah. This sits on the banks of Lake Assad around 90km (50 miles) west of Raqqa this was the last ISIL occupied town within Aleppo Province.
Having liberated Maskanah the Syrians have diverted around SDF-held Tabqa and Raqqa. On July 30th (30/7/17) they liberated the town of Dalhah around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
In liberating Dalhah the Syrians blocked the advance of the SDF. As part of the operation to liberate Raqqa the SDF had been conducting a west-to-east sweep along the southern bank of the Euphrates. At the time this had been advancing on Dalhah from Ukayrishah some 10km (6 miles) north-west towards Raqqa.
The Syrian forces in Palmyra and Dalhah then converged on the town of as-Suknah. This sits around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa and 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra.
From as-Suknah the Syrians then advanced around 120km (70 miles) north-east to the city of Deir-ez-Zour. On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians reached Deir-ez-Zour relieving their forces that had been besieged there by ISIL since March 2014.
In reaching Deir-ez-Zour city the Syrians established a line of control between as-Suknah and Deir-ez-Zour City. The Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
Having broken the siege on Deir-ez-Zour the Syrians then set about clearing the area to the north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line to the Euphrates. This was completed on September 24th (24/9/17) with the liberation of Madan itself.
While the Syrians were focused on clearing the area to the north of the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line ISIL attacked the line from the south.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL forces in Mayadin launched their "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." This was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive. By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin.
On October 9th (9/10/17) the Syrians liberated the Shibli and Kahfri Farms along with Mayadin Airport. These all sit in the south-east of the city.
On October 13th (13/10/17) the Syrians took control of the bridge that links Mayadin with the Diban area on the north bank of the Euphrates. This effectively left Mayadin completely encircled with ISIL trapped inside.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians made their final move and liberated Mayadin in one fell swoop.
While the Syrians were liberating Mayadin from ISIL they also liberated the Saroukh Mountains on October 10th (10/10/17). These overlook the what at that point is the M20 Motorway running between as-Suknah and Palmyra. Control of the mountains gives the Syrians complete control of the road.
The Syrians have also been working to liberate Deir-ez-Zour City.
Although Deir-ez-Zour City was almost completely overrun by ISIL in March 2014 the Syrians have always been able to keep control of two distinct areas of the city.
To the west the Syrians retained control of an area stretching from their 137th Brigade base into the south-west of the city up to the Cemetery area. To the east they retained control of an area stretching from the Airport complex into the south-east of the city up to the al-Rasafah district.
When the Syrians broke the siege on the city on September 5th (5/9/17) they did so by entering via the 137th Brigade base. On September 9th (9/9/17) they crossed the Cemetery area reaching the Harabesh Quarter district. This linked the west and eastern parts of Deir-ez-Zour city held by the Syrians lifting the siege on the Airport complex.
From the Airport area the Syrians then advanced north into the Saqr Island and Jafra areas. These sit directly on the south-eastern outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City. On September 19th (19/9/17) they crossed onto the north bank of the Euphrates into the al-Jafra farms area.
The Syrians then continued to advance on the north bank of the Euphrates taking control of the al-Hatlah Tahtani area. On October 10th (10/10/17) they liberated the Hatlah al-Shargiyah and Asus areas. This gave them control of the H7 Highway bridge across the Euphrates trapping ISIL in the southern portion of the city.
On October 13th (13/10/17) the Syrians advanced north-west from the Hatlah al-Shargiyah to take liberate the adjacent as-Salhiyah district. This gave them control of more of the H7 Highway including the al-Halabieh Roundabout Junction.
Taking control of the al-Salhiyah district also put the Syrians in contact with the SDF who control the adjacent al-Husayniyah area. On October 18th (18/10/17) the Syrians liberated the al-Mahatlah and al-Shababat districts. These sit between the al-Husayniyah district and the Industrial Zone creating a risk that the SDF will be cut off in the al-Husaniyah district.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians also started advancing within the main body of Deir-ez-Zour on the south bank of the Euphrates. From the Cemetery area they advanced north into the Port Said district. This sits between the Cemetery area and the Old Airport District which contains the city's Municipal Stadium.
On October 16th (16/10/17) the Syrians were able to claim that they had liberated every town, village and farm on the south bank of the Euphrates between Deir-ez-Zour City and Mayadin.
16:45 on 25/10/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 24 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 1, Day 7.
On Thursday October 19th (19/10/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) formally declared the Syrian city of Raqqa to be liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The SDF are a coalition of Kurdish, Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.
The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The city of Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River. It is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 100km (60 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. In 2014 ISIL declared itself to be an Islamist Caliphate with Raqqa as its capital city.
However following the SDF's announcement of an operation; "Wrath of Euphrates" to liberate Raqqa back in November 2016 ISIL moved to abandon Raqqa as their capital.
ISIL then slowly started re-deploying their forces to Mayadin to establish a new capital. Mayadin sits around 170km (100 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates River around 90km (50 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Due to a host of reasons, mainly centred around ISIL's own incompetence this plan to establish Mayadin as a fallback capital never really materialised. However it did significantly reduce the level of defence ISIL was able to offer in Raqqa.
Despite this the 133 day Battle of Raqqa was absolutely brutal leaving near 80% of the city destroyed. Across the entire Wrath of Euphrates operation 655 members of the SDF gave their lives in the cause of defeating ISIL. These include Chief Petty Officer Scott Dayton of the US Navy who gave his life on November 24 2016 (24/11/16).
On Thursday October 19th (19/10/17) the SDF were able to officially declare Raqqa liberated from ISIL. I think that bears repeating.
Although Raqqa has been liberated amid the ruins a threat remains both from ISIL stragglers and unexploded ordinance including Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's). This threat was highlighted on Thursday (19/10/17) when just metres/yards from where the official liberation ceremony was taking place three SDF members were killed by an IED explosion.
The dead included Jac Holmes - a British volunteer with the SDF's International Brigade. He was aged 24 from Bournemouth and was on his third tour of duty against ISIL.
The liberation of Raqqa however has not been the only operation the SDF have been conducting against ISIL in Syria. On September 9th (9/9/17) they launched the operation; "Cizre Storm."
Within north-eastern Syrian the SDF control a vast area between the Euphrates River and Syria's borders with Iraq and Turkey. For operational reasons this has been designated; "Shangri-La". The only area of north-eastern Syria which Shangri-La does not encompass is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.
Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.
Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.
The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.
Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).
The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.
This was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.
On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.
The villages and farms located between the Madan-Shadaddi Line are very small in size. Saying many of them are not shown on maps is an understatement. Many of them don't show up on satellite imagery.
To make matters worse the Arab elements of the SDF refer to them by their Arab names. The Kurdish elements refer to them by the Kurdish names and so on. There seems to be no standardised way of translating these various names into English.
So partly in protest I have decided to designate these three axis; "Aisling," "Niamh" and "Siobhan."
The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.
The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.
The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached as-Suwar and the town was fully liberated. It then began to advance north along the banks of the Khobar towards Markadah.
On October 4th (4/10/17) the Siobhan axis reached Markadah. However rather than moving to liberate the town the SDF encircled it and began to advance south towards as-Suwar.
On October 13th (13/10/17) the Niamh axis reached and liberated the town of Hilalah. This sits around 3km (2 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the axis reached and liberated the villages of Sadah, Khabur and al-Janna. This put the Niamh axis within 5km (3 miles) of the town of Markadah and the Siobhan axis.
On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis' touched just south of Markadah. Once united they went on to liberate Markadah on October 20th (20/10/17).
Meanwhile the Aisling axis has advanced steadily along the banks of the Euphrates. On September 23rd (23/9/17) it liberated the Conoco gas plant at the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. On September 30th (30/9/17) it liberated the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.
On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.
Although it was only officially marked last Thursday (19/10/17) the end of the Battle of Raqqa has already provided a huge boost to the Cizre Storm operation.
On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl. On October 21st (21/10/17) the SDF entered the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Located directly south-east of the Khobar River this is the largest Oil & Gas Field in Syria.
On Sunday October 22nd (22/10/17) the SDF declared that they had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Despite having advanced great distances the areas outside of the three axis have not been fully liberated from ISIL. This has left the SDF and the local population vulnerable to counter-attack and ambushes.
On October 10th (10/10/17) one such ambush struck SDF positions just south of as-Suwar. On October 13th (13/10/17) another ISIL ambush struck a SDF convoy on the H7 Highway. This killed 9 and wounded 43 including Kurdish journalists who had been covering the fighting.
While conducting the Cizre Storm operation the SDF have also been steadily progressing south-east from Raqqa liberating towns, villages and farms along the northern banks of the Euphrates.
The first stage of the Wrath of Euphrates operation was to advance upon and surround Raqqa. This was completed on March 19th (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at the town of al-Karamah - around around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
By October 13th (13/10/17) the SDF had advanced roughly 100km (60 miles) from al-Karamah to the Jubaylah area. This sits around 75km (45 miles) south-east of Madan and around 6km (4 miles) west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated the Husayniyah area. This sits around 8km (5 miles) south of the Jubaylah area and around 4km (2 miles) south-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
In between Husayniyah and the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone stands the al-Rawdah district of Deir-ez-Zour City. This remains disputed between ISIL and the Syrians.
With the exception of that small area the liberation of the Husayniyah area means the SDF now control everything north of the Euphrates from where the river enters Syria from Turkey through to the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
The Cizre Storm operation is fast extending that area of control even further.
17:15 on 24/10/17 (UK date).
The SDF are a coalition of Kurdish, Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.
The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The city of Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River. It is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 100km (60 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. In 2014 ISIL declared itself to be an Islamist Caliphate with Raqqa as its capital city.
However following the SDF's announcement of an operation; "Wrath of Euphrates" to liberate Raqqa back in November 2016 ISIL moved to abandon Raqqa as their capital.
ISIL then slowly started re-deploying their forces to Mayadin to establish a new capital. Mayadin sits around 170km (100 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates River around 90km (50 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Due to a host of reasons, mainly centred around ISIL's own incompetence this plan to establish Mayadin as a fallback capital never really materialised. However it did significantly reduce the level of defence ISIL was able to offer in Raqqa.
Despite this the 133 day Battle of Raqqa was absolutely brutal leaving near 80% of the city destroyed. Across the entire Wrath of Euphrates operation 655 members of the SDF gave their lives in the cause of defeating ISIL. These include Chief Petty Officer Scott Dayton of the US Navy who gave his life on November 24 2016 (24/11/16).
On Thursday October 19th (19/10/17) the SDF were able to officially declare Raqqa liberated from ISIL. I think that bears repeating.
Although Raqqa has been liberated amid the ruins a threat remains both from ISIL stragglers and unexploded ordinance including Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's). This threat was highlighted on Thursday (19/10/17) when just metres/yards from where the official liberation ceremony was taking place three SDF members were killed by an IED explosion.
The dead included Jac Holmes - a British volunteer with the SDF's International Brigade. He was aged 24 from Bournemouth and was on his third tour of duty against ISIL.
The liberation of Raqqa however has not been the only operation the SDF have been conducting against ISIL in Syria. On September 9th (9/9/17) they launched the operation; "Cizre Storm."
Within north-eastern Syrian the SDF control a vast area between the Euphrates River and Syria's borders with Iraq and Turkey. For operational reasons this has been designated; "Shangri-La". The only area of north-eastern Syria which Shangri-La does not encompass is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.
Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.
Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.
The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.
Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).
The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.
This was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.
On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.
The villages and farms located between the Madan-Shadaddi Line are very small in size. Saying many of them are not shown on maps is an understatement. Many of them don't show up on satellite imagery.
To make matters worse the Arab elements of the SDF refer to them by their Arab names. The Kurdish elements refer to them by the Kurdish names and so on. There seems to be no standardised way of translating these various names into English.
So partly in protest I have decided to designate these three axis; "Aisling," "Niamh" and "Siobhan."
The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.
The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.
The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached as-Suwar and the town was fully liberated. It then began to advance north along the banks of the Khobar towards Markadah.
On October 4th (4/10/17) the Siobhan axis reached Markadah. However rather than moving to liberate the town the SDF encircled it and began to advance south towards as-Suwar.
On October 13th (13/10/17) the Niamh axis reached and liberated the town of Hilalah. This sits around 3km (2 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the axis reached and liberated the villages of Sadah, Khabur and al-Janna. This put the Niamh axis within 5km (3 miles) of the town of Markadah and the Siobhan axis.
On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis' touched just south of Markadah. Once united they went on to liberate Markadah on October 20th (20/10/17).
Meanwhile the Aisling axis has advanced steadily along the banks of the Euphrates. On September 23rd (23/9/17) it liberated the Conoco gas plant at the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. On September 30th (30/9/17) it liberated the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.
On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.
Although it was only officially marked last Thursday (19/10/17) the end of the Battle of Raqqa has already provided a huge boost to the Cizre Storm operation.
On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl. On October 21st (21/10/17) the SDF entered the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Located directly south-east of the Khobar River this is the largest Oil & Gas Field in Syria.
On Sunday October 22nd (22/10/17) the SDF declared that they had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Despite having advanced great distances the areas outside of the three axis have not been fully liberated from ISIL. This has left the SDF and the local population vulnerable to counter-attack and ambushes.
On October 10th (10/10/17) one such ambush struck SDF positions just south of as-Suwar. On October 13th (13/10/17) another ISIL ambush struck a SDF convoy on the H7 Highway. This killed 9 and wounded 43 including Kurdish journalists who had been covering the fighting.
While conducting the Cizre Storm operation the SDF have also been steadily progressing south-east from Raqqa liberating towns, villages and farms along the northern banks of the Euphrates.
The first stage of the Wrath of Euphrates operation was to advance upon and surround Raqqa. This was completed on March 19th (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at the town of al-Karamah - around around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
By October 13th (13/10/17) the SDF had advanced roughly 100km (60 miles) from al-Karamah to the Jubaylah area. This sits around 75km (45 miles) south-east of Madan and around 6km (4 miles) west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated the Husayniyah area. This sits around 8km (5 miles) south of the Jubaylah area and around 4km (2 miles) south-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
In between Husayniyah and the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone stands the al-Rawdah district of Deir-ez-Zour City. This remains disputed between ISIL and the Syrians.
With the exception of that small area the liberation of the Husayniyah area means the SDF now control everything north of the Euphrates from where the river enters Syria from Turkey through to the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.
The Cizre Storm operation is fast extending that area of control even further.
17:15 on 24/10/17 (UK date).
Friday, 20 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 1, Day 3.
In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran northern Iraq.
The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. Populated primarily by members of the Kurdish ethnic group this has its own Parliament and its own government. It also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.
Immediately following the arrival of ISIL the Peshmerga were dispatched to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.
In November 2015 the Peshmerga reached the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. When ISIL first swept into this town it was scene to the genocide of Kurdish residents of the town who follow the Yezidi faith which triggered the international fight against ISIL.
Sinjar/Shingal is located around 250km (150 miles) west of Erbil and around 130km (80 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
In October 2017 an operation was launched to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL. This is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Erbil and around 45km (25 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
The operation to liberate Mosul was primarily carried out by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However the Peshmerga did perform a supporting role securing the outskirts to the city.
To the north this saw the Peshmerga take up positions at the town Tal Kayf. This sits 8km (5 miles) north of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the east the Peshmerga took up positions at the twin towns of Bashiqa & Barzani. These sit around 12km (7 miles) east of Mosul and around 30km (15 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the south the Peshmerga took up positions at the town of Makhmur. This sits around 70km (40 miles) south of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
On July 9th 2017 (9/6/17) Mosul was finally liberated from ISIL.
The ISF's next task was to liberate an area known as the; "Hawija Triangle." Centred around the town of Hawija this sits around 100km (60 miles) south of Erbil. It's three corners are made up of Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk.
Following a short operation the Hawija Triangle was liberated on October 5th (5/10/17). This effectively limits ISIL presence in Iraq to a small area in the west of Anbar Province where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria.
With the war effectively won the next step was for the Peshmerga to return to the Iraqi Kurdish Region and return their positions outside of the region to the Iraqi Central Government in Baghdad. Starting with the oil fields that sit between the Hawija Triangle and Kirkuk.
The problem though has been the Barzanis who have positioned themselves as the ruling family of the Iraqi Kurkish Region. While the Iraqis have been fighting ISIL both the President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani and the Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani have got this mad idea into their heads.
They've decided that if they can seize Kirkuk's oil fields they can sell that oil through a pipeline running through Turkey. They can use the proceeds of that stolen oil to declare the Iraqi Kurdish Region to be an independent nation state.
Presumably a state in which the Barzanis act as the ruling dynasty. Rather like the Kim's in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).
This plan is so deeply flawed I still can't understand why the Barzanis believed in it in the first place.
Firstly international law prevents the Iraqi Kurdish Region or any other region in a United Nations (UN) member state unilaterally declaring itself to be an independent nation.
Secondly Turkey hates the Kurds waging war against them in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Therefore it is certainly not going to assist the Iraqi Kurdish Region becoming an independent nation state.
The Barzanis though remain committed to their pipedream. So they refused to negotiate the transfer of positions between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Instead the Barzanis ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF risking Iraq as a whole being plunged into civil war.
As a result last Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi Central Government were forced to issue the Peshmerga which an ultimatum; Cede their positions outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region to the ISF by last Sunday (15/10/17) or face being removed from them by force.
The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. Showing remarkable restraint the Iraqi Central Government gave the Peshmerga a further 24hrs to comply with both international and domestic Iraqi law.
By Monday (16/10/17) the Peshmerga had still not returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region. So the ISF were forced to move in to takeover the Peshmerga positions by force if necessary. Starting with the K1 Base complex which controls access to Kirkuk's oil fields.
Fortunately the Peshmerga largely refused to follow the Barzanis' wholly illegal order. This allow the ISF to generally peacefully secure the K1 Base complex by early afternoon on Monday (16/10/17) and Kirkuk city itself by the evening.
On Tuesday (17/10/17) Peshmerga based at Sinjar/Shingal and Bashiqa & Barzani also refused the Barzanis illegal orders and peacefully surrendered their positions to the ISF.
On Wednesday (18/10/17) the Peshmerga peacefully surrendered their remaining positions around the city of Mosul. This meant that the Peshmerga had fully returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region. The exception being a small area in the Kirkuk municipal area.
The problem throughout this process has been the Barzanis repeated threats to use the Peshmerga to attack the ISF. This has forced the ISF to bring their maximum force to bear in the operation so they could quickly win any battle that broke out. That maximum force includes the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias.
The PMF are - at last count - actually made up of 64 separate militias. The quality of these groups vary widely. However as militias they all tend to be less well trained and poorly disciplined in comparison to the professional troops of the Iraqi military and Federal Police.
Ironically one of the larger and more effective militias in the PMF is the Badr Army. They were formed during the Iran-Iraq War to fight alongside Iraq's Kurds against the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.
Unfortunately many of Barzanis supporters seem to have forgotten that. Along with the support that Iran gave to Masoud Barzani's father Mustafa Barzani before and during the 1968 Ba'ath Coup which brought Saddam Hussein to power.
Therefore there has been some concern that the animosity of Iraqi Kurds coupled with the ill discipline of the PMF could result in further confrontation and unrest.
The Iraqi Central Government were aware of this. So as soon as the Peshmerga peacefully returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region on Wednesday (18/10/17) the Iraqi Central Government ordered the withdrawal of the PMF leaving security in the hands of the local police and the Federal Police.
Sadly though the Barzanis aggression has continued.
On Thursday (19/10/17) the Peshmerga commander Kamal Kirkuki announced that he was deploying his forces to Kirkuk and would launch an attack to expel the ISF. This triggered a mass exodus of civilians from Kirkuk fleeing the expected battle.
As I was made aware of Kirkuki's comments yesterday morning I commented that such behaviour made it almost impossible for the Iraqi Central Government to continue to exercise restraint by pretending they hadn't heard this clear call to armed insurrection.
My point was then almost instantly proved when a Court in Baghdad issued a warrant for Kirkuki's arrest. However showing continued restraint they are only pursuing a charge of insulting the Iraqi military despite Kirkuki being clear in his call for civil war.
Today (20/10/17) there has been another flare up at the town of Alton Kupri. This sits well within the Kirkuk Municipal area around 50km (30 miles) north of Kirkuk city. It sits just outside the Iraqi Kurdish Region around 70km (40 miles) south of the regional capital Erbil.
As the ISF moved in to take control of Alton Kupri the Peshmerga opened fire on them with artillery. This forced the ISF to respond with artillery fire of their own. By around 09:00 (12:00 local) the ISF had been able to push the Peshmerga back and take control of the town.
This type of reckless behaviour could well spell the end of the Barzani regime. It makes it extremely difficult for the Iraqi Central Government to explain why they haven't fully suspended the Iraqi Kurdish Region's autonomy and moved in to arrest the Barzanis and their co-conspirators.
Throughout the pursuit of their pipedream the Barzanis have frequently declared Spain's Catalonia Region as brothers of the Iraqi Kurdish Region in their respective quest for independence.
Yesterday (19/10/17) Spain very pointedly suspended the Spanish Catalonia Region's autonomy. They are likely to move ahead with elections early next year in which the current Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont will not be allowed to stand.
The Catalan Regional Government has certainly not gone so far as to destroy Spanish tanks and kill Spanish soldiers.
Although the end of autonomy for the Iraqi Kurdish Region would certainly change the equation in my eyes I can't say that the removal of the Barzanis would be a bad thing.
Before the Barzanis launched into their mad quest it was possible that the Iraqi Central Government could have been persuaded to allow the Kurdish Region to expand in the north-west to include Sinjar/Shingal.
There is no oil in that area and with the exception of the Mosul Dam and a few border crossings it is of limited strategic value. Plus the genocide which Kurdish Yezidis suffered in Sinjar/Shingal makes it very hard to explain why it is not included in the Kurdish Region. Almost as a form of compensation.
Although it is of limited strategic value to the Iraqi Central Government Sinjar/Shingal is directly across the border from the Shangri-La area of Syria which is controlled by the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
In fact while the Iraqi Peshmerga arrived in Sinjar/Shingal in November 2015 it was the People's Protection Units (YPG) who crossed the border and climbed the mountains to end the genocide in the summer of 2014.
They went on to form the Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) who have just helped to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa as part of the SDF.
As with the rest of Syria the fate of the SDF controlled Shangri-La is still very much up for discussion. However an Iraqi-style autonomous Kurdish Region is a distinct possibility.
Over time having these two autonomous regions standing shoulder-to-shoulder would strengthen both. Possibly leading to a single independent nation state.
Instead though the Barzanis have abandoned all that in favour of focusing on this plan to steal Kirkuk's oil and pump it out through Turkey.
Kirkuk is responsible for - I think - roughly half of Iraq's total oil output. Therefore it is obviously going to be the last thing that the Iraqi Central Government would be prepared to give up.
In relying on Turkey to pump Kirkuk's oil the Barzanis have been forced to go to war with Syria's Kurds.
In 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was desperate for a way to defeat the SDF. So the Barzanis happily trained a rival force - the Roj Peshmerga - in the Iraqi Kurdish Region. In March 2017 the Barzanis even sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS at Sinjar/Shingal.
The Barzanis decision to destroy the relationship between Syria's Kurds and Iraq's Kurds is actually causing a very immediate problem in the fight against ISIL.
The SDF are currently moving along the northern bank of the Euphrates River to the Syria/Iraq border. This takes them across the Khobar River. If the Barzanis hadn't sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the SDF back in March we could think about bringing the SDF into Iraq. They could then re-enter Syria pushing up from the border towards the Khobar.
Instead though the Barzanis have decided to pursue the seizure of Kirkuk at all costs. A strategy that hasn't even left them in control of Kirkuk.
I'm inclined to think then that its time for the Barzanis mis-rule of the Iraqi Kurdish Region to come to an end.
In fact that Masoud Barzani's term as President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region actually came to an end in 2015.
They've just cancelled elections scheduled for November.
16:25 on 20/10/17 (UK date).
The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. Populated primarily by members of the Kurdish ethnic group this has its own Parliament and its own government. It also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.
Immediately following the arrival of ISIL the Peshmerga were dispatched to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.
In November 2015 the Peshmerga reached the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. When ISIL first swept into this town it was scene to the genocide of Kurdish residents of the town who follow the Yezidi faith which triggered the international fight against ISIL.
Sinjar/Shingal is located around 250km (150 miles) west of Erbil and around 130km (80 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
In October 2017 an operation was launched to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL. This is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Erbil and around 45km (25 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
The operation to liberate Mosul was primarily carried out by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However the Peshmerga did perform a supporting role securing the outskirts to the city.
To the north this saw the Peshmerga take up positions at the town Tal Kayf. This sits 8km (5 miles) north of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the east the Peshmerga took up positions at the twin towns of Bashiqa & Barzani. These sit around 12km (7 miles) east of Mosul and around 30km (15 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the south the Peshmerga took up positions at the town of Makhmur. This sits around 70km (40 miles) south of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
On July 9th 2017 (9/6/17) Mosul was finally liberated from ISIL.
The ISF's next task was to liberate an area known as the; "Hawija Triangle." Centred around the town of Hawija this sits around 100km (60 miles) south of Erbil. It's three corners are made up of Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk.
Following a short operation the Hawija Triangle was liberated on October 5th (5/10/17). This effectively limits ISIL presence in Iraq to a small area in the west of Anbar Province where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria.
With the war effectively won the next step was for the Peshmerga to return to the Iraqi Kurdish Region and return their positions outside of the region to the Iraqi Central Government in Baghdad. Starting with the oil fields that sit between the Hawija Triangle and Kirkuk.
The problem though has been the Barzanis who have positioned themselves as the ruling family of the Iraqi Kurkish Region. While the Iraqis have been fighting ISIL both the President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani and the Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani have got this mad idea into their heads.
They've decided that if they can seize Kirkuk's oil fields they can sell that oil through a pipeline running through Turkey. They can use the proceeds of that stolen oil to declare the Iraqi Kurdish Region to be an independent nation state.
Presumably a state in which the Barzanis act as the ruling dynasty. Rather like the Kim's in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).
This plan is so deeply flawed I still can't understand why the Barzanis believed in it in the first place.
Firstly international law prevents the Iraqi Kurdish Region or any other region in a United Nations (UN) member state unilaterally declaring itself to be an independent nation.
Secondly Turkey hates the Kurds waging war against them in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Therefore it is certainly not going to assist the Iraqi Kurdish Region becoming an independent nation state.
The Barzanis though remain committed to their pipedream. So they refused to negotiate the transfer of positions between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Instead the Barzanis ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF risking Iraq as a whole being plunged into civil war.
As a result last Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi Central Government were forced to issue the Peshmerga which an ultimatum; Cede their positions outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region to the ISF by last Sunday (15/10/17) or face being removed from them by force.
The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. Showing remarkable restraint the Iraqi Central Government gave the Peshmerga a further 24hrs to comply with both international and domestic Iraqi law.
By Monday (16/10/17) the Peshmerga had still not returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region. So the ISF were forced to move in to takeover the Peshmerga positions by force if necessary. Starting with the K1 Base complex which controls access to Kirkuk's oil fields.
Fortunately the Peshmerga largely refused to follow the Barzanis' wholly illegal order. This allow the ISF to generally peacefully secure the K1 Base complex by early afternoon on Monday (16/10/17) and Kirkuk city itself by the evening.
On Tuesday (17/10/17) Peshmerga based at Sinjar/Shingal and Bashiqa & Barzani also refused the Barzanis illegal orders and peacefully surrendered their positions to the ISF.
On Wednesday (18/10/17) the Peshmerga peacefully surrendered their remaining positions around the city of Mosul. This meant that the Peshmerga had fully returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region. The exception being a small area in the Kirkuk municipal area.
The problem throughout this process has been the Barzanis repeated threats to use the Peshmerga to attack the ISF. This has forced the ISF to bring their maximum force to bear in the operation so they could quickly win any battle that broke out. That maximum force includes the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias.
The PMF are - at last count - actually made up of 64 separate militias. The quality of these groups vary widely. However as militias they all tend to be less well trained and poorly disciplined in comparison to the professional troops of the Iraqi military and Federal Police.
Ironically one of the larger and more effective militias in the PMF is the Badr Army. They were formed during the Iran-Iraq War to fight alongside Iraq's Kurds against the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.
Unfortunately many of Barzanis supporters seem to have forgotten that. Along with the support that Iran gave to Masoud Barzani's father Mustafa Barzani before and during the 1968 Ba'ath Coup which brought Saddam Hussein to power.
Therefore there has been some concern that the animosity of Iraqi Kurds coupled with the ill discipline of the PMF could result in further confrontation and unrest.
The Iraqi Central Government were aware of this. So as soon as the Peshmerga peacefully returned to the Iraqi Kurdish Region on Wednesday (18/10/17) the Iraqi Central Government ordered the withdrawal of the PMF leaving security in the hands of the local police and the Federal Police.
Sadly though the Barzanis aggression has continued.
On Thursday (19/10/17) the Peshmerga commander Kamal Kirkuki announced that he was deploying his forces to Kirkuk and would launch an attack to expel the ISF. This triggered a mass exodus of civilians from Kirkuk fleeing the expected battle.
As I was made aware of Kirkuki's comments yesterday morning I commented that such behaviour made it almost impossible for the Iraqi Central Government to continue to exercise restraint by pretending they hadn't heard this clear call to armed insurrection.
My point was then almost instantly proved when a Court in Baghdad issued a warrant for Kirkuki's arrest. However showing continued restraint they are only pursuing a charge of insulting the Iraqi military despite Kirkuki being clear in his call for civil war.
Today (20/10/17) there has been another flare up at the town of Alton Kupri. This sits well within the Kirkuk Municipal area around 50km (30 miles) north of Kirkuk city. It sits just outside the Iraqi Kurdish Region around 70km (40 miles) south of the regional capital Erbil.
As the ISF moved in to take control of Alton Kupri the Peshmerga opened fire on them with artillery. This forced the ISF to respond with artillery fire of their own. By around 09:00 (12:00 local) the ISF had been able to push the Peshmerga back and take control of the town.
This type of reckless behaviour could well spell the end of the Barzani regime. It makes it extremely difficult for the Iraqi Central Government to explain why they haven't fully suspended the Iraqi Kurdish Region's autonomy and moved in to arrest the Barzanis and their co-conspirators.
Throughout the pursuit of their pipedream the Barzanis have frequently declared Spain's Catalonia Region as brothers of the Iraqi Kurdish Region in their respective quest for independence.
Yesterday (19/10/17) Spain very pointedly suspended the Spanish Catalonia Region's autonomy. They are likely to move ahead with elections early next year in which the current Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont will not be allowed to stand.
The Catalan Regional Government has certainly not gone so far as to destroy Spanish tanks and kill Spanish soldiers.
Although the end of autonomy for the Iraqi Kurdish Region would certainly change the equation in my eyes I can't say that the removal of the Barzanis would be a bad thing.
Before the Barzanis launched into their mad quest it was possible that the Iraqi Central Government could have been persuaded to allow the Kurdish Region to expand in the north-west to include Sinjar/Shingal.
There is no oil in that area and with the exception of the Mosul Dam and a few border crossings it is of limited strategic value. Plus the genocide which Kurdish Yezidis suffered in Sinjar/Shingal makes it very hard to explain why it is not included in the Kurdish Region. Almost as a form of compensation.
Although it is of limited strategic value to the Iraqi Central Government Sinjar/Shingal is directly across the border from the Shangri-La area of Syria which is controlled by the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
In fact while the Iraqi Peshmerga arrived in Sinjar/Shingal in November 2015 it was the People's Protection Units (YPG) who crossed the border and climbed the mountains to end the genocide in the summer of 2014.
They went on to form the Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) who have just helped to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa as part of the SDF.
As with the rest of Syria the fate of the SDF controlled Shangri-La is still very much up for discussion. However an Iraqi-style autonomous Kurdish Region is a distinct possibility.
Over time having these two autonomous regions standing shoulder-to-shoulder would strengthen both. Possibly leading to a single independent nation state.
Instead though the Barzanis have abandoned all that in favour of focusing on this plan to steal Kirkuk's oil and pump it out through Turkey.
Kirkuk is responsible for - I think - roughly half of Iraq's total oil output. Therefore it is obviously going to be the last thing that the Iraqi Central Government would be prepared to give up.
In relying on Turkey to pump Kirkuk's oil the Barzanis have been forced to go to war with Syria's Kurds.
In 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan was desperate for a way to defeat the SDF. So the Barzanis happily trained a rival force - the Roj Peshmerga - in the Iraqi Kurdish Region. In March 2017 the Barzanis even sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the YBS at Sinjar/Shingal.
The Barzanis decision to destroy the relationship between Syria's Kurds and Iraq's Kurds is actually causing a very immediate problem in the fight against ISIL.
The SDF are currently moving along the northern bank of the Euphrates River to the Syria/Iraq border. This takes them across the Khobar River. If the Barzanis hadn't sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the SDF back in March we could think about bringing the SDF into Iraq. They could then re-enter Syria pushing up from the border towards the Khobar.
Instead though the Barzanis have decided to pursue the seizure of Kirkuk at all costs. A strategy that hasn't even left them in control of Kirkuk.
I'm inclined to think then that its time for the Barzanis mis-rule of the Iraqi Kurdish Region to come to an end.
In fact that Masoud Barzani's term as President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region actually came to an end in 2015.
They've just cancelled elections scheduled for November.
16:25 on 20/10/17 (UK date).
Wednesday, 18 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 1, Day 1.
On September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) the Sunni Islamist group Al Qaeda conducted multiple, coordinated terror attacks against the United States of America.
Hijacked aircraft were flow into both of the main towers at the World Trade Centre in New York City, New York completely destroying the complex. A third aircraft was flown into the Pentagon building in Virginia badly damaging the headquarters of the US military.
A fourth aircraft was brought down by its passengers in a field in Pennsylvania. It is believed that this plane was intended to crash into the US Capitol in Washington D.C.
This was the worst terror attack in US history. With 2,977 people killed and more than 6,000 injured I believe it remains the worst terror attack committed anywhere in the World ever.
The aircraft were hijacked by 15 citizens of Saudi Arabia, 2 citizens of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and 2 citizens of Egypt and Lebanon respectively.
So in 2003 America invaded Iraq.
By invading Iraq the US created the space for Al Qaeda to enter the country. In October 2004 the Al Qaeda affiliate "Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn/Organisation for Jihad's Base in Mesopotamia" was created by Abu Musab al-Zarqwi. This was commonly know by the Americans as; "Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)."
In June 2006 Abu Musab al-Zarqwi was killed by US forces. He was replaced as leader of AQI by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who renamed the group; "Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)."
Despite al-Baghdadi's delusions of grandeur ISI were largely suppressed. Both by US forces and the "Awakenings" or "Sahwah" movement. This saw the US and the Iraqi government pay Sunni Arab tribes in particularly Anbar Province to fight against ISI and other Sunni Islamist groups.
In 2011 then US President Barack Obama declared that the war in Iraq had been won. He started withdrawing US troops from Iraq and brought an end to the Awakenings movement.
This allowed ISI to flourish once again in Iraq. It also allowed them to expand to north-eastern Syria where they changed their name again to; "al-Dawlah al-Islamiyyah fi al-
Turkey under President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan along with the US under Obama then started supporting ISIL.The objective of this support was for ISIL to overthrow the secular government of Syria replacing it with a Sunni Islamist government that is the puppet of Erdogan.
That would be the first step in realising Erdogan's dream of re-establishing the Ottoman Empire across the entire Middle-East, North Africa (MENA).
At the same time Erdogan was establishing a Sunni Islamist puppet regime in Egypt. The Ottoman Empire really came into being after it defeated the Egyptian based Mamluk Empire in a battle at the Syrian town of Dabiq in 1516.
Quite why former President Obama decided to support ISIL to allow Erdogan to establish a Middle-Eastern Empire remains a complete mystery to me.
Despite several years of support by Erdogan and Obama by the autumn of 2013 ISIL were in extremely bad shape in Syria. The Syrian forces had restricted them to an area around the Euphrates River basin in north-eastern Syria and the group was on the brink of defeat.
So in December 2013 ISIL returned to Iraq taking over the predominately Sunni south-western Anbar Province. In August 2014 ISIL overran northern Iraq's Nineveh Province. This invasion included committing a genocide of Iraqis who follow the Yezidi religion and taking control of the city of Mosul.
Refreshed by weapons, money and recruits stolen from Iraq the battle in Syria once again swung back in ISIL's favour. They were able to overrun almost the entire the north-east of the country and its centre coming close to the capital Damascus.
ISIL though hit a roadblock in September 2014 when they tried to overrun the city of Kobane. This sits on Syria's northern border with Turkey around 30km (20 miles) east of where the Euphrates River enters Syria.
A predominately Kurdish city Kobane was defended by the People's Protection Units (YPG). Over the course of a gruelling six month battle the YPG not only stopped ISIL seizing Kobane they drove them back as far as the town of Ayn Issa around 90km (55 miles) to the south-east.
Having defeated ISIL at Kobane the YPG then set about forming the Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition. Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.
The formation of the SDF cut off ISIL's access to Syria's border with Turkey along as roughly 160km (95 mile) wide area from the Euphrates River in the west to Syria's border with Iraq to the east. For operational reasons this constantly growing area which cuts across several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."
The SDF also control another area designated; "Afrin Canton" in the north-west of Syria. In August 2016 the SDF were prevented from linking Afrin Canton and Shangri-La by an illegal invasion of northern Syria by regular Turkish forces.
Those Turkish troops continue to occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area between the Euphrates to the east and Azaz/Kilis to the west. This area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road." The purpose of the invasion and occupation was to keep open supply lines between ISIL and Turkey.
In the meantime ISIL's genocide of the Yezidis in northern Iraq finally shamed the international community to take action. Under Chapter 7 of the United Nations (UN) Charter Resolution 2170 (2014) was issued and a global military coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) was formed under American leadership.
Due to former President Obama's lingering support for ISIL the progress of CJTFOIR was initially extremely slow. For example Obama forbade CJTFOIR for supporting the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in an operation to liberate the city of Tikrit in the spring of 2015.
However by the summer of 2016 the ISF with the support of CJTFOIR had been able to liberate the city of Fallujah. This marked the effective liberation of all of Anbar Province from ISIL. With the exception of some small border areas where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate Mosul. Since the invasion in the summer of 2014 this had functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
In launching this operation former President Obama's primary objective was the November 2016 US Presidential Election. He wanted lots of positive headlines to propel his designated successor to victory.
Obama also wanted to preserve ISIL as much as possible so Hillary Clinton could go on using them to try and overthrow Syria's secular government.
Therefore the key part of Obama's plan for the battle of Mosul was to leave the entire western side of the city undefended. This was to allow ISIL to flee back up the the Euphrates River to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - while only mounting a symbolic defence of Mosul.
It was then pointed out to Obama by other members of CJTFOIR that if ISIL were free to flee to Raqqa they were also free to flee from Raqqa up the Garvaghy Road to Turkey. From Turkey they would be free to travel to wherever they liked in the World in order to do Erdogan's evil bidding.
So at the start of November 2016 Obama sort panicked under pressure and blurted out that with the support of CJTFOIR the SDF would liberate Raqqa.
The problem was that when Obama made this announcement the SDF were located extremely far away from Raqqa. Their most advanced position was at Ayn Issa which is around 70km (40 miles) north of Raqqa.
Therefore the SDF's first task of the operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates" was to actually advance towards Raqqa. This was done in three phases;
The first phase begun on November 6th (6/11/16) saw the SDF advance south from Ayn Issa to Raqqa. This was completed on November 25th (25/11/16) with the SDF taking up positions roughly 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa.
The second phase of the operation was launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16).
It's objective was to see the SDF sweep down the banks of the Euphrates from the town of Sarrin to the Tabqa Dam. Sarrin is located roughly 70km (40 miles) north-west of Ayn Issa on the banks of the Euphrates while the Tabqa Dam is located around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.
This second phase was completed on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17). It saw the SDF take up positions at Jabour Castle at Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam.
The third phase was launched on February 4th (4/2/17). It's objective was to secure the territory north-west of Raqqa cutting the city off from Deir-ez-Zour - the other major city on the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
This third phase was completed on March 19th (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions around al-Karamah which is roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. This was completed on May 11th (11/5/17).
While the SDF were advancing towards Raqqa ISIL seemed to be operating under the impression they would get the same deal from CJTFOIR they got in Mosul.
That is to say they would be allowed to largely flee Raqqa to establish a new de facto capital in the town of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates River roughly 175km (105 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
As it turns out ISIL didn't even get the deal Obama promised them in Mosul.
On October 29th 2016 (29/10/16) the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militia element of the ISF broke from Obama's plan and established a front to the west of Mosul. By November 16th 2016 (16/11/17) this had effectively sealed Mosul off from Syria.
The November 2016 US Presidential Election was won not by Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton but by Donald Trump.
Upon taking up office in January 2017 President Trump changed CJTFOIR's rules of engagement allowing them to more aggressively strike ISIL. Particularly their convoys travelling from Raqqa to Mayadin.
Within the UK this change has very much been in the news recently.
Last Thursday (12/10/17) it was made public that the British female ISIL fighter Sally Jones had been killed in CJTFOIR airstrike back in June 2017. Jones is sometimes also known as; "Umm Hussain al-Britani," "The White Widow" or "Lindsay Lohan" The strike had taken place as she and other ISIL fighters were travelling from Raqqa to Mayadin.
As a result of both the actions of the PMF and CJTFOIR's new rules of engagement ISIL's plans to establish a new de facto capital in Mayadin seem to have failed.
However their abandonment of the city as their capital and the largescale withdrawal from Raqqa did significantly undermine their ability to defend the city.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF operation to liberate Raqqa itself began.
ISIL's plan for the defence of Raqqa appears to have been built around establishing a sort of main headquarters within the central areas of the city. Roughly in the area between the an-Nadah district to the west and the Old City district to the east.
This believed main headquarters actually stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah, Amin and what is known as the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the Municipal Football Stadium.
ISIL seemed to assume that the SDF would attack from the north. As a result they established the bulk of their defences to the north of the city. Roughly between the old Syrian Army - Division 17 - base and the area of their main headquarters.
Instead what the SDF actually did was attack in three directions; The North, The West and the East. At the same time the SDF swept west-to-east from Tabqa along the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to isolate Raqqa from the main body of Syria.
The northern axis' first task was to liberate the Division 17 base. They completed that task on or around August 1st (1/8/17) before entering into a holding pattern.
The SDF's western axis entered the Raqqa via the Jazra suburb. By July 3rd (3/7/17) it had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.
The SDF's eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) it had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.
On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates.
On July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.
On August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This linked the eastern and western axis liberating the south of Raqqa from ISIL.
The SDF then set about liberating the districts which sit between the eastern and western outskirts and the area of ISIL's believed main headquarters.
On September 2nd (2/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in fully liberating the Old City district. This sits north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district, west of the al-Sinaa district and one city block east of the Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 8th (8/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Darayeh district. This sits directly north of the Shahada district and directly west of the al-Moroor district.
On September 10th (10/9/17) the western axis liberated the al-Moroor district itself. This also sits directly north of the Shahada district, directly west of the Security Box.
In doing this the SDF liberated a number of the key buildings that make up ISIL's believed headquarters.
On August 28th (28/8/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Children's Hospital Complex. This is located on the junction between Shahada district, al-Moroor district and the Security Box. It had long been used by ISIL as a military base and a command & control centre.
On September 6th (6/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Court House and Criminal Security complex. This sits north of where al-Moroor district meets an-Nadah district and is directly across the road from the National Hospital Complex.
On September 12th (12/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis liberated the Governate Building. This sits directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district roughly 200 metres/yards or one city block south of Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL finally realised that their central headquarters were being overrun from the south, west and east. This prompted them to withdraw their forces from the north of the city in an attempt to defend the central area.
This triggered a mass collapse in ISIL defences. In quick succession they lost many of the key landmarks in their central headquarters and several neighbourhoods in the north-east of the city. At the same time the SDF's northern axis ended their holding pattern and began advancing south.
These rapid gains meant that by October 3rd (3/10/17) ISIL were limited to a small area in the north of the city. This area was a rough "V" shape with the Naem Roundabout junction at its tip spanning out north to include parts of al-Wahdah, Hurriyah and Thawrah districts.
ISIL did though continue to hold on to two of the key landmarks within its central headquarters. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium.
ISIL had been able to hold on to these locations by kidnapping potentially thousands of civilians from the surrounding area and holding them a human shields. ISIL then rigged both locations with explosives and were using heavy weapons to defend them from the SDF.
This made it extremely difficult for the SDF to liberate those locations. From a military perspective there was only two outcomes I could see;
Firstly CJTFOIR bombs both the locations. This would completely destroy the buildings, kill all the ISIL fighters and kill all the hostages.
Secondly the SDF try to mount a raid on the locations. This would prompt ISIL to blow up the buildings like the blew up the Grand Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul. That would completely destroy the buildings, kill all the ISIL fighters, kill all the civilians and kill all the members of the SDF taking part in the raid.
So instead the SDF set about negotiating the surrender of the ISIL fighters in the locations and the release of all the hostages. That negotiation was successfully completed on Sunday (15/10/17) with the surrender of 350 ISIL fighters and the release of over 1,300 civilians.
Throughout the naturally very secretive negotiations there were lots of rumours about whether the agreement would apply only to local, Syrian ISIL fighters or all ISIL fighters including foreigners. There also lots of rumours about whether the surrendering fighters would go to Deir-ez-Zour, Ayn Issa or Tabqa and whether they would be set free or not.
As it turns out the surrender only applied to Syrian ISIL fighters who are members of local Arab tribes. At least 270 of the 350 have been transferred to Tabqa where they are in prison awaiting trial.
Sunday's (15/10/17) mass surrender meant that there were only a handful of foreign ISIL fighters remaining in Raqqa to defend the V area and the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium Complexes.
Over the course of Monday (16/10/17) the SDF were able to oust those remaining fighters from that V area including the Naem Roundabout junction. On Tuesday (17/10/17) they took control of both the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium complexes.
Obviously the SDF still have mopping up operations to complete to make sure there are no ISIL fighters left hiding amid the ruins.
However those gains mean that the SDF were able to declare that after 133 days of battle Raqqa was fully liberated from ISIL on October 17th 2017 (17/10/17).
Exactly a year to the day after the operation to liberate Mosul - ISIL's de factor capital in Iraq - began.
Meanwhile the Syrians with the support of Russia have been conducting their own operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates from ISIL.
On Saturday (14/10/17) they were able to liberate Mayadin.
With the exception of an isolated area in Hama Province this leaves ISIL scattered in a small area in the Euphrates River basin between the Khobar River and the Syria/Iraq border.
16:45 on 18/10/17 (UK date).
Hijacked aircraft were flow into both of the main towers at the World Trade Centre in New York City, New York completely destroying the complex. A third aircraft was flown into the Pentagon building in Virginia badly damaging the headquarters of the US military.
A fourth aircraft was brought down by its passengers in a field in Pennsylvania. It is believed that this plane was intended to crash into the US Capitol in Washington D.C.
This was the worst terror attack in US history. With 2,977 people killed and more than 6,000 injured I believe it remains the worst terror attack committed anywhere in the World ever.
The aircraft were hijacked by 15 citizens of Saudi Arabia, 2 citizens of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and 2 citizens of Egypt and Lebanon respectively.
So in 2003 America invaded Iraq.
By invading Iraq the US created the space for Al Qaeda to enter the country. In October 2004 the Al Qaeda affiliate "Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn/Organisation for Jihad's Base in Mesopotamia" was created by Abu Musab al-Zarqwi. This was commonly know by the Americans as; "Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)."
In June 2006 Abu Musab al-Zarqwi was killed by US forces. He was replaced as leader of AQI by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who renamed the group; "Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)."
Despite al-Baghdadi's delusions of grandeur ISI were largely suppressed. Both by US forces and the "Awakenings" or "Sahwah" movement. This saw the US and the Iraqi government pay Sunni Arab tribes in particularly Anbar Province to fight against ISI and other Sunni Islamist groups.
In 2011 then US President Barack Obama declared that the war in Iraq had been won. He started withdrawing US troops from Iraq and brought an end to the Awakenings movement.
This allowed ISI to flourish once again in Iraq. It also allowed them to expand to north-eastern Syria where they changed their name again to; "al-Dawlah al-Islamiyyah fi al-
Turkey under President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan along with the US under Obama then started supporting ISIL.The objective of this support was for ISIL to overthrow the secular government of Syria replacing it with a Sunni Islamist government that is the puppet of Erdogan.
That would be the first step in realising Erdogan's dream of re-establishing the Ottoman Empire across the entire Middle-East, North Africa (MENA).
At the same time Erdogan was establishing a Sunni Islamist puppet regime in Egypt. The Ottoman Empire really came into being after it defeated the Egyptian based Mamluk Empire in a battle at the Syrian town of Dabiq in 1516.
Quite why former President Obama decided to support ISIL to allow Erdogan to establish a Middle-Eastern Empire remains a complete mystery to me.
Despite several years of support by Erdogan and Obama by the autumn of 2013 ISIL were in extremely bad shape in Syria. The Syrian forces had restricted them to an area around the Euphrates River basin in north-eastern Syria and the group was on the brink of defeat.
So in December 2013 ISIL returned to Iraq taking over the predominately Sunni south-western Anbar Province. In August 2014 ISIL overran northern Iraq's Nineveh Province. This invasion included committing a genocide of Iraqis who follow the Yezidi religion and taking control of the city of Mosul.
Refreshed by weapons, money and recruits stolen from Iraq the battle in Syria once again swung back in ISIL's favour. They were able to overrun almost the entire the north-east of the country and its centre coming close to the capital Damascus.
ISIL though hit a roadblock in September 2014 when they tried to overrun the city of Kobane. This sits on Syria's northern border with Turkey around 30km (20 miles) east of where the Euphrates River enters Syria.
A predominately Kurdish city Kobane was defended by the People's Protection Units (YPG). Over the course of a gruelling six month battle the YPG not only stopped ISIL seizing Kobane they drove them back as far as the town of Ayn Issa around 90km (55 miles) to the south-east.
Having defeated ISIL at Kobane the YPG then set about forming the Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition. Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.
The formation of the SDF cut off ISIL's access to Syria's border with Turkey along as roughly 160km (95 mile) wide area from the Euphrates River in the west to Syria's border with Iraq to the east. For operational reasons this constantly growing area which cuts across several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."
The SDF also control another area designated; "Afrin Canton" in the north-west of Syria. In August 2016 the SDF were prevented from linking Afrin Canton and Shangri-La by an illegal invasion of northern Syria by regular Turkish forces.
Those Turkish troops continue to occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area between the Euphrates to the east and Azaz/Kilis to the west. This area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road." The purpose of the invasion and occupation was to keep open supply lines between ISIL and Turkey.
In the meantime ISIL's genocide of the Yezidis in northern Iraq finally shamed the international community to take action. Under Chapter 7 of the United Nations (UN) Charter Resolution 2170 (2014) was issued and a global military coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) was formed under American leadership.
Due to former President Obama's lingering support for ISIL the progress of CJTFOIR was initially extremely slow. For example Obama forbade CJTFOIR for supporting the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in an operation to liberate the city of Tikrit in the spring of 2015.
However by the summer of 2016 the ISF with the support of CJTFOIR had been able to liberate the city of Fallujah. This marked the effective liberation of all of Anbar Province from ISIL. With the exception of some small border areas where the Euphrates River enters Iraq from Syria.
On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate Mosul. Since the invasion in the summer of 2014 this had functioned as ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq.
In launching this operation former President Obama's primary objective was the November 2016 US Presidential Election. He wanted lots of positive headlines to propel his designated successor to victory.
Obama also wanted to preserve ISIL as much as possible so Hillary Clinton could go on using them to try and overthrow Syria's secular government.
Therefore the key part of Obama's plan for the battle of Mosul was to leave the entire western side of the city undefended. This was to allow ISIL to flee back up the the Euphrates River to Raqqa - their de facto capital in Syria - while only mounting a symbolic defence of Mosul.
It was then pointed out to Obama by other members of CJTFOIR that if ISIL were free to flee to Raqqa they were also free to flee from Raqqa up the Garvaghy Road to Turkey. From Turkey they would be free to travel to wherever they liked in the World in order to do Erdogan's evil bidding.
So at the start of November 2016 Obama sort panicked under pressure and blurted out that with the support of CJTFOIR the SDF would liberate Raqqa.
The problem was that when Obama made this announcement the SDF were located extremely far away from Raqqa. Their most advanced position was at Ayn Issa which is around 70km (40 miles) north of Raqqa.
Therefore the SDF's first task of the operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates" was to actually advance towards Raqqa. This was done in three phases;
The first phase begun on November 6th (6/11/16) saw the SDF advance south from Ayn Issa to Raqqa. This was completed on November 25th (25/11/16) with the SDF taking up positions roughly 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa.
The second phase of the operation was launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16).
It's objective was to see the SDF sweep down the banks of the Euphrates from the town of Sarrin to the Tabqa Dam. Sarrin is located roughly 70km (40 miles) north-west of Ayn Issa on the banks of the Euphrates while the Tabqa Dam is located around 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.
This second phase was completed on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17). It saw the SDF take up positions at Jabour Castle at Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam.
The third phase was launched on February 4th (4/2/17). It's objective was to secure the territory north-west of Raqqa cutting the city off from Deir-ez-Zour - the other major city on the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
This third phase was completed on March 19th (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions around al-Karamah which is roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. This was completed on May 11th (11/5/17).
While the SDF were advancing towards Raqqa ISIL seemed to be operating under the impression they would get the same deal from CJTFOIR they got in Mosul.
That is to say they would be allowed to largely flee Raqqa to establish a new de facto capital in the town of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates River roughly 175km (105 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
As it turns out ISIL didn't even get the deal Obama promised them in Mosul.
On October 29th 2016 (29/10/16) the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militia element of the ISF broke from Obama's plan and established a front to the west of Mosul. By November 16th 2016 (16/11/17) this had effectively sealed Mosul off from Syria.
The November 2016 US Presidential Election was won not by Obama's designated successor Hillary Clinton but by Donald Trump.
Upon taking up office in January 2017 President Trump changed CJTFOIR's rules of engagement allowing them to more aggressively strike ISIL. Particularly their convoys travelling from Raqqa to Mayadin.
Within the UK this change has very much been in the news recently.
Last Thursday (12/10/17) it was made public that the British female ISIL fighter Sally Jones had been killed in CJTFOIR airstrike back in June 2017. Jones is sometimes also known as; "Umm Hussain al-Britani," "The White Widow" or "Lindsay Lohan" The strike had taken place as she and other ISIL fighters were travelling from Raqqa to Mayadin.
As a result of both the actions of the PMF and CJTFOIR's new rules of engagement ISIL's plans to establish a new de facto capital in Mayadin seem to have failed.
However their abandonment of the city as their capital and the largescale withdrawal from Raqqa did significantly undermine their ability to defend the city.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF operation to liberate Raqqa itself began.
ISIL's plan for the defence of Raqqa appears to have been built around establishing a sort of main headquarters within the central areas of the city. Roughly in the area between the an-Nadah district to the west and the Old City district to the east.
This believed main headquarters actually stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah, Amin and what is known as the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the Municipal Football Stadium.
ISIL seemed to assume that the SDF would attack from the north. As a result they established the bulk of their defences to the north of the city. Roughly between the old Syrian Army - Division 17 - base and the area of their main headquarters.
Instead what the SDF actually did was attack in three directions; The North, The West and the East. At the same time the SDF swept west-to-east from Tabqa along the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to isolate Raqqa from the main body of Syria.
The northern axis' first task was to liberate the Division 17 base. They completed that task on or around August 1st (1/8/17) before entering into a holding pattern.
The SDF's western axis entered the Raqqa via the Jazra suburb. By July 3rd (3/7/17) it had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.
The SDF's eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) it had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.
On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates.
On July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.
On August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This linked the eastern and western axis liberating the south of Raqqa from ISIL.
The SDF then set about liberating the districts which sit between the eastern and western outskirts and the area of ISIL's believed main headquarters.
On September 2nd (2/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in fully liberating the Old City district. This sits north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district, west of the al-Sinaa district and one city block east of the Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 8th (8/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Darayeh district. This sits directly north of the Shahada district and directly west of the al-Moroor district.
On September 10th (10/9/17) the western axis liberated the al-Moroor district itself. This also sits directly north of the Shahada district, directly west of the Security Box.
In doing this the SDF liberated a number of the key buildings that make up ISIL's believed headquarters.
On August 28th (28/8/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Children's Hospital Complex. This is located on the junction between Shahada district, al-Moroor district and the Security Box. It had long been used by ISIL as a military base and a command & control centre.
On September 6th (6/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Court House and Criminal Security complex. This sits north of where al-Moroor district meets an-Nadah district and is directly across the road from the National Hospital Complex.
On September 12th (12/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis liberated the Governate Building. This sits directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district roughly 200 metres/yards or one city block south of Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL finally realised that their central headquarters were being overrun from the south, west and east. This prompted them to withdraw their forces from the north of the city in an attempt to defend the central area.
This triggered a mass collapse in ISIL defences. In quick succession they lost many of the key landmarks in their central headquarters and several neighbourhoods in the north-east of the city. At the same time the SDF's northern axis ended their holding pattern and began advancing south.
These rapid gains meant that by October 3rd (3/10/17) ISIL were limited to a small area in the north of the city. This area was a rough "V" shape with the Naem Roundabout junction at its tip spanning out north to include parts of al-Wahdah, Hurriyah and Thawrah districts.
ISIL did though continue to hold on to two of the key landmarks within its central headquarters. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium.
ISIL had been able to hold on to these locations by kidnapping potentially thousands of civilians from the surrounding area and holding them a human shields. ISIL then rigged both locations with explosives and were using heavy weapons to defend them from the SDF.
This made it extremely difficult for the SDF to liberate those locations. From a military perspective there was only two outcomes I could see;
Firstly CJTFOIR bombs both the locations. This would completely destroy the buildings, kill all the ISIL fighters and kill all the hostages.
Secondly the SDF try to mount a raid on the locations. This would prompt ISIL to blow up the buildings like the blew up the Grand Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul. That would completely destroy the buildings, kill all the ISIL fighters, kill all the civilians and kill all the members of the SDF taking part in the raid.
So instead the SDF set about negotiating the surrender of the ISIL fighters in the locations and the release of all the hostages. That negotiation was successfully completed on Sunday (15/10/17) with the surrender of 350 ISIL fighters and the release of over 1,300 civilians.
Throughout the naturally very secretive negotiations there were lots of rumours about whether the agreement would apply only to local, Syrian ISIL fighters or all ISIL fighters including foreigners. There also lots of rumours about whether the surrendering fighters would go to Deir-ez-Zour, Ayn Issa or Tabqa and whether they would be set free or not.
As it turns out the surrender only applied to Syrian ISIL fighters who are members of local Arab tribes. At least 270 of the 350 have been transferred to Tabqa where they are in prison awaiting trial.
Sunday's (15/10/17) mass surrender meant that there were only a handful of foreign ISIL fighters remaining in Raqqa to defend the V area and the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium Complexes.
Over the course of Monday (16/10/17) the SDF were able to oust those remaining fighters from that V area including the Naem Roundabout junction. On Tuesday (17/10/17) they took control of both the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium complexes.
Obviously the SDF still have mopping up operations to complete to make sure there are no ISIL fighters left hiding amid the ruins.
However those gains mean that the SDF were able to declare that after 133 days of battle Raqqa was fully liberated from ISIL on October 17th 2017 (17/10/17).
Exactly a year to the day after the operation to liberate Mosul - ISIL's de factor capital in Iraq - began.
Meanwhile the Syrians with the support of Russia have been conducting their own operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates from ISIL.
On Saturday (14/10/17) they were able to liberate Mayadin.
With the exception of an isolated area in Hama Province this leaves ISIL scattered in a small area in the Euphrates River basin between the Khobar River and the Syria/Iraq border.
16:45 on 18/10/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 17 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 39, Week 5, Day 2.
In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran northern Iraq.
The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. Populated primarily by members of the Kurdish ethnic group this has its own Parliament and its own government. It also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.
Immediately following the arrival of ISIL the Peshmerga were dispatched to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.
In November 2015 the Peshmerga reached the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. When ISIL first swept into this town it was scene to the genocide of Kurdish residents of the town who follow the Yezidi faith which triggered the international fight against ISIL. It is located around 250km (150 miles) west of Erbil and around 130km (80 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
In October 2017 an operation was launched to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL. This is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Erbil and around 45km (25 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
The operation to liberate Mosul was primarily carried out by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However the Peshmerga did perform a supporting role securing the outskirts to the city.
To the north this saw the Peshmerga take up positions at the town Tal Kayf. This sits 8km (5 miles) north of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the east the Peshmerga took up positions at the twin towns of Bashiqa & Barzani. These sit around 12km (7 miles) east of Mosul and around 30km (15 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the south the Peshmerga took up positions at the town of Makhmur. This sits around 70km (40 miles) south of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
On July 9th 2017 (9/6/17) Mosul was finally liberated from ISIL.
The ISF's next task was to liberate an area known as the; "Hawija Triangle." Centred around the town of Hawija this sits around 100km (60 miles) south of Erbil. It's three corners are made up of Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk.
By October 5th (5/10/17) the Hawija Triangle was all but liberated. The remaining task was for the ISF to take control of the Kirkuk oilfields. This would involve the Peshmerga returning positions in and around Kirkuk - specifically the K1 Base complex - to the ISF.
The problem though has been President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani. Along with his son Nechirvan Barzani whom he's appointed Prime Minister Masoud Barzani has gotten this mad idea into his head.
The Barzanis think that if they can seize Kirkuk's oil fields he can export that oil through a pipeline to Turkey. They can then use the proceeds from this stolen oil to declare the Iraqi Kurdish Region to be an independent nation state. One which the Barzani family runs as a dynasty.
While the ISF have spent the last year fighting ISIL the Barzanis have spent their time trying to put this pipedream into reality. To this end they held a vote on September 25th (25/9/17). By both international and domestic Iraqi and Kurdish Region law this vote fell far short of the independence referendum the Barzanis proclaim it to be.
The Barzanis' pipedream though has led to them refusing to negotiate the transfer of positions outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region from the Peshmerga back to the ISF.
So on Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi government government was forced to give the Peshmerga an ultimatum. They had until 00:00 (02:00 local) on Sunday (15/10/17) to vacate their positions at Kirkuk's oil fields and hand them back to the ISF.
The Barzanis though refused and ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF for control of the oil fields.
The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. The Iraqi government's response was to wait a further 24 hours to give the Barzanis time to consider their position and negotiate.
The Barzanis refused so at 00:00 (02:00 local) on Monday (16/10/17) the ISF moved in to secure Kirkuk's oil fields.
Fortunately the majority of the Peshmerga refused the Barzanis illegal order to fight the ISF and instead peacefully handed over their positions. The exception seems to have been a rogue Peshmerga unit led by Sheikh Jaafar Mustafa. They attempted to fight the ISF but were either killed or captured by their fellow Peshmerga.
As a result the ISF were able to secure the K1 Base complex which controls access to Kirkuk's oil fields on Monday (16/10/17) afternoon. By the evening the ISF were able to take control of Kirkuk itself as local residents rejected the Barzanis calls for them to come out and fight the ISF.
This morning the Peshmerga peacefully handed over their positions at Sinjar/Shingal to the ISF. They also peacefully handed over their positions at Bashiqa & Barzani.
It is expected that they will equally peacefully return their positions around Makhmur to the ISF either tonight or tomorrow.
17:05 on 17/10/17 (UK date).
The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. Populated primarily by members of the Kurdish ethnic group this has its own Parliament and its own government. It also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.
Immediately following the arrival of ISIL the Peshmerga were dispatched to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.
In November 2015 the Peshmerga reached the now infamous town of Sinjar/Shingal. When ISIL first swept into this town it was scene to the genocide of Kurdish residents of the town who follow the Yezidi faith which triggered the international fight against ISIL. It is located around 250km (150 miles) west of Erbil and around 130km (80 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
In October 2017 an operation was launched to liberate the city of Mosul from ISIL. This is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Erbil and around 45km (25 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
The operation to liberate Mosul was primarily carried out by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). However the Peshmerga did perform a supporting role securing the outskirts to the city.
To the north this saw the Peshmerga take up positions at the town Tal Kayf. This sits 8km (5 miles) north of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the east the Peshmerga took up positions at the twin towns of Bashiqa & Barzani. These sit around 12km (7 miles) east of Mosul and around 30km (15 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
To the south the Peshmerga took up positions at the town of Makhmur. This sits around 70km (40 miles) south of Mosul and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region.
On July 9th 2017 (9/6/17) Mosul was finally liberated from ISIL.
The ISF's next task was to liberate an area known as the; "Hawija Triangle." Centred around the town of Hawija this sits around 100km (60 miles) south of Erbil. It's three corners are made up of Tikrit, Baiji and Kirkuk.
By October 5th (5/10/17) the Hawija Triangle was all but liberated. The remaining task was for the ISF to take control of the Kirkuk oilfields. This would involve the Peshmerga returning positions in and around Kirkuk - specifically the K1 Base complex - to the ISF.
The problem though has been President of the Iraqi Kurdish Region Masoud Barzani. Along with his son Nechirvan Barzani whom he's appointed Prime Minister Masoud Barzani has gotten this mad idea into his head.
The Barzanis think that if they can seize Kirkuk's oil fields he can export that oil through a pipeline to Turkey. They can then use the proceeds from this stolen oil to declare the Iraqi Kurdish Region to be an independent nation state. One which the Barzani family runs as a dynasty.
While the ISF have spent the last year fighting ISIL the Barzanis have spent their time trying to put this pipedream into reality. To this end they held a vote on September 25th (25/9/17). By both international and domestic Iraqi and Kurdish Region law this vote fell far short of the independence referendum the Barzanis proclaim it to be.
The Barzanis' pipedream though has led to them refusing to negotiate the transfer of positions outside of the Iraqi Kurdish Region from the Peshmerga back to the ISF.
So on Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi government government was forced to give the Peshmerga an ultimatum. They had until 00:00 (02:00 local) on Sunday (15/10/17) to vacate their positions at Kirkuk's oil fields and hand them back to the ISF.
The Barzanis though refused and ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF for control of the oil fields.
The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. The Iraqi government's response was to wait a further 24 hours to give the Barzanis time to consider their position and negotiate.
The Barzanis refused so at 00:00 (02:00 local) on Monday (16/10/17) the ISF moved in to secure Kirkuk's oil fields.
Fortunately the majority of the Peshmerga refused the Barzanis illegal order to fight the ISF and instead peacefully handed over their positions. The exception seems to have been a rogue Peshmerga unit led by Sheikh Jaafar Mustafa. They attempted to fight the ISF but were either killed or captured by their fellow Peshmerga.
As a result the ISF were able to secure the K1 Base complex which controls access to Kirkuk's oil fields on Monday (16/10/17) afternoon. By the evening the ISF were able to take control of Kirkuk itself as local residents rejected the Barzanis calls for them to come out and fight the ISF.
This morning the Peshmerga peacefully handed over their positions at Sinjar/Shingal to the ISF. They also peacefully handed over their positions at Bashiqa & Barzani.
It is expected that they will equally peacefully return their positions around Makhmur to the ISF either tonight or tomorrow.
17:05 on 17/10/17 (UK date).
Monday, 16 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 39, Week 5, Day 1.
In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran northern Iraq.
The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. This semi-autonomous region has it's own Parliament and its own government - the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).
The KRG is headed by regional President Masoud Barzani. Like all the best dictators President Barzani has appointed his son - Nechirvan Barzani - to act as the region's Prime Minister.
The Iraqi Kurdish Region also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.
Following ISIL's arrival President Barzani dispatched the Peshmerga to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.
Having seized Kirkuk the Barzani family became fixated on a crazy plan.
If they could also seize the oilfields around Kirkuk they could use a pipeline into Turkey to sell the stolen oil. This would provide them with the funds to declare Iraq's Kurdish Region to be an independent nation. With the Barzani family ruling as a dynasty of course.
This plan is deeply flawed for two main reasons;
The first is that international law forbids a nation state being created within the borders of an existing nation state without the permission of that existing state.
Therefore the Barzanis could declare Iraq's Kurdish Region to be an independent nation in much the same way I could declare my house to be an independent nation.
However without the consent of Iraq no member of the United Nations could recognise the Iraqi Kurdish Region as a nation state. Nor could they maintain diplomatic contact with let alone support a Kurdish Region that the Barzani's claim is an independent nation.
The second problem is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The President/Prime Minister/Emperor of Iraq's neighbour Turkey. Barzani's plan to fund the Kurdish Region as an independent nation by selling oil through Turkey is entirely dependent on Erdogan.
Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wishes to reestablish Turkey as the Ottoman Empire. At its peak this stretched across the entire Middle-East and parts of Europe and North Africa.
Within the Ottoman Empire there was a Kurdish Region. This was populated by people who identified as Kurdish and spoke the Kurdish language.
When the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of the First World War the allied powers were going to create the Ottoman Kurdish Region as the independent nation state of Kurdistan. However the discovery of oil in places like Kirkuk changed their minds. This was known as the Sykes-Picot agreement.
ISIL were created by Erdogan with the support of the US to bring an end to the Sykes-Picot agreement and re-establish first the Ottoman Kurdish Region. Therefore you would have to be insane to think that Erdogan would support the Barzanis to establish Iraq's Kurdish Region as a nation state.
I have no doubt that Erdogan would accept Kirkuk's oil via a Barzani run pipeline. What he will certainly not do though is hand the revenues from those oil sales back to Iraq's Kurds.
Despite the obvious flaws with their plan being repeatedly pointed out to them and years of pleading by the international community for them to see sense the Barzanis have kept pushing away with their pipedream.
This has caused no end of problems both for the fight against ISIL and for the region's Kurds.
In the spring of 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the cities of Tikrit and Baiji from ISIL. These sit 120km (70 miles) and 105km (60 miles) south-west of Kirkuk respectively.
Having liberated Tikrit and Baiji the logical next step would be for the ISF to liberate the area between those cities and Kirkuk. Centred around the town of Hawija this has become known as the; "Hawija Triangle."
However the Barzanis would not allow the ISF to enter Kirkuk in order to conduct the operation. So since then ISIL have been protected by the Barzanis within the Hawija Triangle. They've used the area to conduct numerous attacks against civilians within Kirkuk and beyond.
In December 2015 Erdogan was desperate to send regular Turkish forces into Syria to fight the Syrian Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) on behalf of ISIL. To test the diplomatic waters for this Erdogan first sent a few thousand Turkish troops into Iraq's Kurdish Region where they set up a base at Bashiqa - close to the city of Mosul.
Erdogan's deployment of troops to Bashiqa which at the time was on the ISIL side of the Mosul frontline was met with near universal condemnation leading to Erdogan's planned attack Syria's Kurds was shelved. The Barzanis however fully supported Erdogan's deployment to Bashiqa and continue to support it.
Despite Erdogan's December 2015 invasion plans being shelved his aggression towards Kurds has continued with airstrikes in Turkey, Syria and Iraq's Kurdish Region. These attacks have been universally condemned including by the government Iraq. However they have been supported by the Barzanis allowing them to continue.
In no small part due to the support of the Barzanis Erdogan was finally able to invade Syria in August 2016.
He sent troops to occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road." This sits between the Kurdish held "Shangri-La" area and the Kurdish held "Afrin Canton" area.
Erdogan's invasion was intended to stop Syria's Kurds from linking these two areas under their control. From Garvaghy Road Erdogan has repeatedly attacked Syrian Kurds in both Shangri-La and Afrin Canton.
Having invaded Garvaghy Road Erdogan with the help of former US President Barack Obama then set about trying to oust the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from the SDF coalition. This effort was twofold establishing the Syrian Arab Council (SAC) within the SDF and providing a rival Kurdish force known as the Roj Peshmerga.
The Barzanis were more than happy to assist Erdogan in this effort training the Roj Peshmerga at the Turkish Bashiqa camp and other camps within Iraq's Kurdish Region. In March 2017 the Barzanis even sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) - an element of the ISF - at Sinjar/Shingal.
What I would have liked to be writing about today are the latest developments in the SDF's battle to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from ISIL. In the past couple of days they have struck a deal which saw a large number of ISIL fighters surrender.
Residents of the Iraqi city of Mosul have been asking why a similar deal wasn't reached to prevent their city being destroyed in the effort to liberate it from ISIL. The simple answer to that is the Mosul operation was so poorly planned the option never arose whereby ISIL would consider surrendering.
When the Mosul operation was launched in October 2017 former President Obama's only concern was the November 2016 US Presidential Election. He wanted headlines about ISIL being ousted from Mosul to help propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in that election.
Beyond that Obama put absolutely no thought into planning the Mosul operation. This lack of planning was obvious to all other members of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
As a result as the start of the Mosul operation approached there was an intense international effort to have it delayed until it could be properly planned out. This effort included the Iraqi government.
However as they did with the Bashiqa camp and the airstrikes the Barzanis again broke with the international consensus and pressed for the Mosul operation to start. It was actually Turkish troops which the Barzanis have continued to allow to be stationed at the Bashiqa camp that fired the first shots of the Mosul battle on October 16th (16/10/17).
While the ISF and CJTFOIR were fighting a 216 day battle to liberate Mosul the Barzanis and the Peshmerga were essentially on holiday.
Shirking the responsibility for fighting ISIL the Barzanis instead used this as an opportunity to put their pipedream into action. They called a vote for September 25th (25/9/17) on declaring the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state.
This vote was called without the consent of the Iraqi government. As such it can in no way be considered a referendum under international law.
In calling this vote the Barzanis also completely disregarded the laws of the Iraqi Kurdish Region itself.
Masoud Barzani's term as Kurdish Regional President actually expired all the way back in 2015. However rather than face re-election he used the fight against ISIL as excuse to suspended the Kurdish Regional Parliament. That Parliament did not resume its work until the vote had been called. While the fight against ISIL was continuing.
The Barzanis also held the vote outside of the borders of the Iraqi Kurdish Region. This included in areas such as Kirkuk, Mosul and Sinjar/Shingal where people reported being intimidated into voting by the Peshmerga force.
In calling their vote the Barzanis compared it to the similar vote being held in the Catalonia region of Spain a week later on October 1st (1/10/17). In part this comparison led to Catalonia suffering a series of Islamist terror attacks on August 18th (18/8/17).
So the Spanish government turned the Catalonia vote into an example showing just how unpopular the Barzanis and their pipedream are amongst the international community.
The main part of this effort involved the Spanish Federal police being sent to Catalonia to use force to prevent the October 1st (1/10/17) vote taking place. Amid scenes of elderly women being pulled from polling stations by their hair this police violence is said to have injured 900+ and resulted in the death of at least one person.
That stood in stark contrast to the highly restrained way that Iraq had responded to the Barzanis equally illegal vote. Despite all the Barzanis claims of Shia and Iranian oppression no action was taken to prevent the September 25th (25/9/17) vote from taking place.
As it was always known they would following the October 1st (1/10/17) vote the Catalonia region has now abandoned plans to declare independence. In effect acknowledging that the vote could in no way be considered a referendum.
That leaves the Barzanis looking extremely isolated in pretending they in any way held a referendum let alone one that allows them to claim the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state.
While the Barzanis have been showing off the ISF have been quietly getting to work liberating the Hawija Triangle from ISIL.
As I've said I've always considered the liberation of the Hawija Triangle as part of the Tikrit operation rather than an operation in itself. Having gained the experience of liberating Mosul the ISF were able to quickly sweep through the Hawija Triangle all but liberating it on October 5th (5/10/17).
The final part of the Hawija Triangle operation is the securing of the Kirkuk oil fields which sit to the north-east. On a tactical level this means securing control over the K1 Military Base and Kirkuk Regional Air Base which sit on the south-western outskirts of Kirkuk City. Those bases were established because they control access to the Kirkuk oil fields.
What should have happened is that the Peshmerga peacefully negotiate the return of that base area to the ISF. However the Barzanis are still pumped up in their false belief they are the leaders of an independent nation which has some right to Iraq's oil fields. So they refused to negotiate.
On Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi government government gave the Peshmerga until 00:00 (02:00 local) on Sunday (15/10/17) to vacate the locations and hand them back to the ISF.
The Barzanis though refused and ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF for control of the oil fields.
This puts the Barzanis in an absolutely untenable position. It means they are waging war against Iraq just like ISIL have done. If that is the path they choose there is little option other than for the Iraqi government to treat them like ISIL by arresting them and putting them on trial for treason. An offence that carries the death penalty.
The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. The Iraqi government's response was to wait a further 24 hours to give the Barzanis time to consider their position and negotiate.
The Barzanis refused so at 00:00 (02:00 local) this morning the ISF moved in to secure Kirkuk's oil fields.
This has created a very dynamic situation which seems to be changing minute-by-minute. Also the Iraqi government and the Rudaw news outlet which is run by the Barzani family have been engaging in an intense propaganda war with frequent and conflicting claims.
However is seems that the Peshmerga have sensibly disregarded the Barzanis illegal orders and allowed the ISF to take control over the K1 Bases and by extension Kirkuk's oil fields.
Though with the Peshmerga doing their lawful duty the Barzanis have resorted to calling on Kirkuk's Kurdish residents to take up arms. This has led to those Kurdish residents attacking Kirkuk's other ethnic groups such as Turkmen.
We are now waiting to see if the ISF will enter Kirkuk city and what sort of illegal resistance the Barzanis will conduct if they do.
16:20 on 16/10/17 (UK date).
The eastern part of northern Iraq is dominated by the Iraqi Kurdish Region. This semi-autonomous region has it's own Parliament and its own government - the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).
The KRG is headed by regional President Masoud Barzani. Like all the best dictators President Barzani has appointed his son - Nechirvan Barzani - to act as the region's Prime Minister.
The Iraqi Kurdish Region also has its own security force known as the Peshmerga.
Following ISIL's arrival President Barzani dispatched the Peshmerga to the city of Kirkuk. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south of Erbil - the capital of the Iraqi Kurdish Region - and around 50km (30 miles) outside of the Kurdish Region.
Having seized Kirkuk the Barzani family became fixated on a crazy plan.
If they could also seize the oilfields around Kirkuk they could use a pipeline into Turkey to sell the stolen oil. This would provide them with the funds to declare Iraq's Kurdish Region to be an independent nation. With the Barzani family ruling as a dynasty of course.
This plan is deeply flawed for two main reasons;
The first is that international law forbids a nation state being created within the borders of an existing nation state without the permission of that existing state.
Therefore the Barzanis could declare Iraq's Kurdish Region to be an independent nation in much the same way I could declare my house to be an independent nation.
However without the consent of Iraq no member of the United Nations could recognise the Iraqi Kurdish Region as a nation state. Nor could they maintain diplomatic contact with let alone support a Kurdish Region that the Barzani's claim is an independent nation.
The second problem is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The President/Prime Minister/Emperor of Iraq's neighbour Turkey. Barzani's plan to fund the Kurdish Region as an independent nation by selling oil through Turkey is entirely dependent on Erdogan.
Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wishes to reestablish Turkey as the Ottoman Empire. At its peak this stretched across the entire Middle-East and parts of Europe and North Africa.
Within the Ottoman Empire there was a Kurdish Region. This was populated by people who identified as Kurdish and spoke the Kurdish language.
When the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of the First World War the allied powers were going to create the Ottoman Kurdish Region as the independent nation state of Kurdistan. However the discovery of oil in places like Kirkuk changed their minds. This was known as the Sykes-Picot agreement.
ISIL were created by Erdogan with the support of the US to bring an end to the Sykes-Picot agreement and re-establish first the Ottoman Kurdish Region. Therefore you would have to be insane to think that Erdogan would support the Barzanis to establish Iraq's Kurdish Region as a nation state.
I have no doubt that Erdogan would accept Kirkuk's oil via a Barzani run pipeline. What he will certainly not do though is hand the revenues from those oil sales back to Iraq's Kurds.
Despite the obvious flaws with their plan being repeatedly pointed out to them and years of pleading by the international community for them to see sense the Barzanis have kept pushing away with their pipedream.
This has caused no end of problems both for the fight against ISIL and for the region's Kurds.
In the spring of 2015 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the cities of Tikrit and Baiji from ISIL. These sit 120km (70 miles) and 105km (60 miles) south-west of Kirkuk respectively.
Having liberated Tikrit and Baiji the logical next step would be for the ISF to liberate the area between those cities and Kirkuk. Centred around the town of Hawija this has become known as the; "Hawija Triangle."
However the Barzanis would not allow the ISF to enter Kirkuk in order to conduct the operation. So since then ISIL have been protected by the Barzanis within the Hawija Triangle. They've used the area to conduct numerous attacks against civilians within Kirkuk and beyond.
In December 2015 Erdogan was desperate to send regular Turkish forces into Syria to fight the Syrian Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) on behalf of ISIL. To test the diplomatic waters for this Erdogan first sent a few thousand Turkish troops into Iraq's Kurdish Region where they set up a base at Bashiqa - close to the city of Mosul.
Erdogan's deployment of troops to Bashiqa which at the time was on the ISIL side of the Mosul frontline was met with near universal condemnation leading to Erdogan's planned attack Syria's Kurds was shelved. The Barzanis however fully supported Erdogan's deployment to Bashiqa and continue to support it.
Despite Erdogan's December 2015 invasion plans being shelved his aggression towards Kurds has continued with airstrikes in Turkey, Syria and Iraq's Kurdish Region. These attacks have been universally condemned including by the government Iraq. However they have been supported by the Barzanis allowing them to continue.
In no small part due to the support of the Barzanis Erdogan was finally able to invade Syria in August 2016.
He sent troops to occupy a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road." This sits between the Kurdish held "Shangri-La" area and the Kurdish held "Afrin Canton" area.
Erdogan's invasion was intended to stop Syria's Kurds from linking these two areas under their control. From Garvaghy Road Erdogan has repeatedly attacked Syrian Kurds in both Shangri-La and Afrin Canton.
Having invaded Garvaghy Road Erdogan with the help of former US President Barack Obama then set about trying to oust the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from the SDF coalition. This effort was twofold establishing the Syrian Arab Council (SAC) within the SDF and providing a rival Kurdish force known as the Roj Peshmerga.
The Barzanis were more than happy to assist Erdogan in this effort training the Roj Peshmerga at the Turkish Bashiqa camp and other camps within Iraq's Kurdish Region. In March 2017 the Barzanis even sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) - an element of the ISF - at Sinjar/Shingal.
What I would have liked to be writing about today are the latest developments in the SDF's battle to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from ISIL. In the past couple of days they have struck a deal which saw a large number of ISIL fighters surrender.
Residents of the Iraqi city of Mosul have been asking why a similar deal wasn't reached to prevent their city being destroyed in the effort to liberate it from ISIL. The simple answer to that is the Mosul operation was so poorly planned the option never arose whereby ISIL would consider surrendering.
When the Mosul operation was launched in October 2017 former President Obama's only concern was the November 2016 US Presidential Election. He wanted headlines about ISIL being ousted from Mosul to help propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in that election.
Beyond that Obama put absolutely no thought into planning the Mosul operation. This lack of planning was obvious to all other members of the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
As a result as the start of the Mosul operation approached there was an intense international effort to have it delayed until it could be properly planned out. This effort included the Iraqi government.
However as they did with the Bashiqa camp and the airstrikes the Barzanis again broke with the international consensus and pressed for the Mosul operation to start. It was actually Turkish troops which the Barzanis have continued to allow to be stationed at the Bashiqa camp that fired the first shots of the Mosul battle on October 16th (16/10/17).
While the ISF and CJTFOIR were fighting a 216 day battle to liberate Mosul the Barzanis and the Peshmerga were essentially on holiday.
Shirking the responsibility for fighting ISIL the Barzanis instead used this as an opportunity to put their pipedream into action. They called a vote for September 25th (25/9/17) on declaring the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state.
This vote was called without the consent of the Iraqi government. As such it can in no way be considered a referendum under international law.
In calling this vote the Barzanis also completely disregarded the laws of the Iraqi Kurdish Region itself.
Masoud Barzani's term as Kurdish Regional President actually expired all the way back in 2015. However rather than face re-election he used the fight against ISIL as excuse to suspended the Kurdish Regional Parliament. That Parliament did not resume its work until the vote had been called. While the fight against ISIL was continuing.
The Barzanis also held the vote outside of the borders of the Iraqi Kurdish Region. This included in areas such as Kirkuk, Mosul and Sinjar/Shingal where people reported being intimidated into voting by the Peshmerga force.
In calling their vote the Barzanis compared it to the similar vote being held in the Catalonia region of Spain a week later on October 1st (1/10/17). In part this comparison led to Catalonia suffering a series of Islamist terror attacks on August 18th (18/8/17).
So the Spanish government turned the Catalonia vote into an example showing just how unpopular the Barzanis and their pipedream are amongst the international community.
The main part of this effort involved the Spanish Federal police being sent to Catalonia to use force to prevent the October 1st (1/10/17) vote taking place. Amid scenes of elderly women being pulled from polling stations by their hair this police violence is said to have injured 900+ and resulted in the death of at least one person.
That stood in stark contrast to the highly restrained way that Iraq had responded to the Barzanis equally illegal vote. Despite all the Barzanis claims of Shia and Iranian oppression no action was taken to prevent the September 25th (25/9/17) vote from taking place.
As it was always known they would following the October 1st (1/10/17) vote the Catalonia region has now abandoned plans to declare independence. In effect acknowledging that the vote could in no way be considered a referendum.
That leaves the Barzanis looking extremely isolated in pretending they in any way held a referendum let alone one that allows them to claim the Iraqi Kurdish Region as an independent nation state.
While the Barzanis have been showing off the ISF have been quietly getting to work liberating the Hawija Triangle from ISIL.
As I've said I've always considered the liberation of the Hawija Triangle as part of the Tikrit operation rather than an operation in itself. Having gained the experience of liberating Mosul the ISF were able to quickly sweep through the Hawija Triangle all but liberating it on October 5th (5/10/17).
The final part of the Hawija Triangle operation is the securing of the Kirkuk oil fields which sit to the north-east. On a tactical level this means securing control over the K1 Military Base and Kirkuk Regional Air Base which sit on the south-western outskirts of Kirkuk City. Those bases were established because they control access to the Kirkuk oil fields.
What should have happened is that the Peshmerga peacefully negotiate the return of that base area to the ISF. However the Barzanis are still pumped up in their false belief they are the leaders of an independent nation which has some right to Iraq's oil fields. So they refused to negotiate.
On Friday (13/10/17) the Iraqi government government gave the Peshmerga until 00:00 (02:00 local) on Sunday (15/10/17) to vacate the locations and hand them back to the ISF.
The Barzanis though refused and ordered the Peshmerga to fight the ISF for control of the oil fields.
This puts the Barzanis in an absolutely untenable position. It means they are waging war against Iraq just like ISIL have done. If that is the path they choose there is little option other than for the Iraqi government to treat them like ISIL by arresting them and putting them on trial for treason. An offence that carries the death penalty.
The October 15th (15/10/17) deadline came and went. The Iraqi government's response was to wait a further 24 hours to give the Barzanis time to consider their position and negotiate.
The Barzanis refused so at 00:00 (02:00 local) this morning the ISF moved in to secure Kirkuk's oil fields.
This has created a very dynamic situation which seems to be changing minute-by-minute. Also the Iraqi government and the Rudaw news outlet which is run by the Barzani family have been engaging in an intense propaganda war with frequent and conflicting claims.
However is seems that the Peshmerga have sensibly disregarded the Barzanis illegal orders and allowed the ISF to take control over the K1 Bases and by extension Kirkuk's oil fields.
Though with the Peshmerga doing their lawful duty the Barzanis have resorted to calling on Kirkuk's Kurdish residents to take up arms. This has led to those Kurdish residents attacking Kirkuk's other ethnic groups such as Turkmen.
We are now waiting to see if the ISF will enter Kirkuk city and what sort of illegal resistance the Barzanis will conduct if they do.
16:20 on 16/10/17 (UK date).
Friday, 13 October 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 39, Week 4, Day 5.
On November 6th 2016 (6/11/17) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD)
launched an operation to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The SDF are a coalition of Kurdish, Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.
The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The city of Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River. It is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 100km (60 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. It has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
The first stage of the SDF's operation was to advance on Raqqa from three directions; North, West and East. This was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at al-Karamah - around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam which forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River. This operation was completed on May 11th (11/5/17) giving the SDF control of positions on the southern banks of the Euphrates some 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the operation to liberate Raqqa itself was begun.
ISIL's plan for the defence of Raqqa appears to have been built around establishing a sort of main headquarters within the central areas of the city. Roughly in the area between the an-Nadah district to the west and the Old City district to the east.
This believed main headquarters actually stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah, Amin and what is known as the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the Municipal Football Stadium.
ISIL seemed to assume that the SDF would attack from the north. As a result they established the bulk of their defences to the north of the city. Roughly between the old Syrian Army - Division 17 - base and the area of their main headquarters.
Instead what the SDF actually did was attack in three directions; The North, The West and the East. At the same time the SDF swept west-to-east from Tabqa along the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to isolate Raqqa from the main body of Syria.
The northern axis' first task was to liberate the Division 17 base. They completed that task on or around August 1st (1/8/17) before entering into a holding pattern.
The SDF's western axis entered the Raqqa via the Jazra suburb. By July 3rd (3/7/17) it had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.
The SDF's eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) it had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.
On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates.
On July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.
On August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This linked the eastern and western axis liberating the south of Raqqa from ISIL.
The SDF then set about liberating the districts which sit between the eastern and western outskirts and the area of ISIL's believed main headquarters.
On September 2nd (2/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in fully liberating the Old City district. This sits north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district, west of the al-Sinaa district and one city block east of the Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 8th (8/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Darayeh district. This sits directly north of the Shahada district and directly west of the al-Moroor district.
On September 10th (10/9/17) the western axis liberated the al-Moroor district itself. This also sits directly north of the Shahada district, directly west of the Security Box.
In doing this the SDF liberated a number of the key buildings that make up ISIL's believed headquarters.
On August 28th (28/8/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Children's Hospital Complex. This is located on the junction between Shahada district, al-Moroor district and the Security Box. It had long been used by ISIL as a military base and a command & control centre.
On September 6th (6/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Court House and Criminal Security complex. This sits north of where al-Moroor district meets an-Nadah district and is directly across the road from the National Hospital Complex.
On September 12th (12/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis liberated the Governate Building. This sits directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district roughly 200 metres/yards or one city block south of Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL finally realised that their central headquarters were being overrun from the south, west and east. This prompted them to withdraw their forces from the north of the city in an attempt to defend the central area.
This triggered a mass collapse in ISIL's defences. In the space of little more than a day the SDF were able to fully liberate the Tishrin, al-Rawdah and Ramilah districts which sits to its north-east of the city. They were also able to liberate the Grain Storage area which sits to the north of al-Thawrah district and east of the Railway Depot/Station directly adjacent to Ramilah district.
In liberating the al-Rawdah district the SDF's eastern axis were also able to liberate the Dalla Roundabout junction and advance to the Naem Roundabout junction. This divides the area containing Harun al-Rashid Gardens to the south from the area containing the Municipal Football Stadium to the north-west.
ISIL's September 20th (20/9/17) collapse also allowed the SDF to liberate a number of the key landmarks that make up ISIL's central headquarters area.
In quick succession they liberated Harun al-Rashid Gardens and the Air Force Intelligence building which sits directly to its north. They also liberated the April 7th Garden and the Children's Garden. These sit close to the National Hospital Complex.
On September 25th (25/9/17) the SDF also liberated the al-Tawleed Hospital complex. This sits directly east of the Children's Garden in the area between the Naem Roundabout junction on the Municipal Football Stadium. In liberating the al-Tawleed Hospital complex the SDF united their eastern and western axis in the centre of the city.
On September 23rd (23/9/17) they liberated the Al Firdous Mosque. This sits directly across the road from the Children's Garden to the north-west.
On September 25th (25/9/17) they liberated the Imam Nawawi Mosque. This sits roughly in the centre of the an-Nadah district.
Immediately following ISIL's September 20th (20/9/17) collapse the northern axis moved from their holding pattern and began advancing south.
By September 29th (29/9/17) the northern axis had succeeded in liberating the Ba'ath and Andalus districts. These sit between the Divison 17 base and Railway Station/Depot. They had also succeeded in liberating the Railway Station/Depot itself.
By Tuesday (3/10/17) the northern had succeeded in liberating the area between the Railway Station/Depot and the main road which runs between the Military Intelligence building in al-Wahdah district and Train Square in Thawrah district.
These rapid gains mean that ISIL are now limited to a small area in the north of the city. This area is a rough "V" shape with the Naem Roundabout junction at its tip spanning out north to include parts of al-Wahdah, Hurriyah and Thawrah districts.
ISIL however does hold on to just two of the key landmarks in what used to be considered its main headquarters in Raqqa. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium which is sometimes known as; "The Black Stadium."
What has delayed the liberation of the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium complexes is that ISIL have kidnapped the civilians in the surrounding area.
ISIL have forced those potentially thousands of civilians into the buildings at the two locations and are using them as human shields. It is believed ISIL have rigged the buildings with explosives and are prepared to use heavy weapons to defend them.
As a result operations at those locations are not so much traditional warfare. Instead they more closely resemble urban hostage rescue operations. With both locations covering large areas containing multi-level buildings they are both extremely complex hostage rescue situations.
The situation at the Municipal Football Stadium seems to be completely without precedent. Or certainly any precedent I can recall.
The situation at the National Hospital seems similar to several previous situations. The November 2008 Taj Mahal Hotel siege in Mumbai, India. The October 2002 Dubrovka Theatre siege in Moscow, Russia. The September 2004 School Number One siege in Beslan, Russia.
None of those scenarios played out particularly well for the hostages.
Within the northern area which I think has to be dubbed the; "Victory Zone" fighting has returned to its usual tempo. This involves buildings slowly being liberated window-by-window, room-by-room and street-by-street.
Following the rapid gains of the September 20th (20/9/17) collapse this may seem as though the SDF's operations have slowed. However it is just them returning to the expected pace.
The SDF's east-to-west sweep south of Raqqa achieved its primary objective of cutting Raqqa of from the main body of Syria on June 29th (29/6/17). On July 30th (30/7/17) it was forced to stop its advance after taking up positions just north of the town of Dalhah around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
What stopped the SDF's west-to-east advance was not ISIL but the Syrians themselves. Since May they have been advancing east from Aleppo City to liberate the north of the country from ISIL. On July 30th (30/7/17) they reached Dalhah.
While the presence of the Syrians has prevented the SDF from advancing on the southern bank of the Euphrates it has not stopped them advancing on the northern banks. Starting from al-Karamah they advanced some 100km (60 miles) past Madan to roughly the Jubaylah area. This is around 10km (6 miles) north of Deir-ez-Zour City.
Alongside side their operation to liberate Raqqa City the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Cizre Storm" on September 9th (9/9/17).
The starting point for the operation is the Madan-Shaddadi Line.
This stretches from the town of Madan on the banks of the Euphrates River around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City to the town of Shaddadi on the banks of the Khobar River around 100km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The objective of the operation is for the SDF to advance some 200km (120 miles) south-east from the Madan-Shaddadi Line to Syria's border with Iraq.
This will see the SDF advance across the Khobar River basin allowing them to use the Euphrates River as the boundary of the area under their control designated; "Shangri-La." It will also see the SDF take control of a number of key oil fields keeping them out of the hands of both ISIL and the Syrian government.
On September 13th (13/9/17) the SDF reached the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City. They did this by extending a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shaddadi Line to the Industrial Zone.
Following an unfortunate delay the second phase of the operation was launched on September 20th (20/9/17). This saw the SDF advance from the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone towards the Khobar River on three axis.
The first axis set out to advance south-east from the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City along the north bank of the Euphrates. This axis is heading the general direction of al-Zuwaymiyah - a village on the junction of where the Khobar reaches the Euphrates. However the objective is to clear all of the area between the Industrial Zone and the Khobar River.
The second axis set out to advance east from the Madan-Shaddadi Line - Industrial Zone corridor. This axis is headed in the direction of as-Suwar - a town sitting on the banks of the Khobar around 50km (30 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour city.
The third axis set out to advance south from Shaddadi to the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar around 45km (25 miles) south of Shaddadi and around 95km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The first axis has now reached the area around the village of al-Zuwaymiyah. In the process it has liberated the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields and the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the second axis reached the town of as-Suwar and declared it fully liberated.
On October 4th (4/10/17) the third axis reached the town of Markadah. However it's liberation has not yet been confirmed.
The second and third axis are now advancing north and south respectively in an effort to unite between as-Suwar and Markadah. At current estimates they are around 5km (3 miles) away from each other.
16:55 on 13/10/17 (UK date).
The SDF are a coalition of Kurdish, Christian, Turkmen and Arab forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the coalition is made up of both fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribes indigenous to northern Syria.
The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The city of Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River. It is located around 200km (120 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 100km (60 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey. It has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in Syria.
The first stage of the SDF's operation was to advance on Raqqa from three directions; North, West and East. This was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at al-Karamah - around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
On March 22nd (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam which forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River. This operation was completed on May 11th (11/5/17) giving the SDF control of positions on the southern banks of the Euphrates some 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the operation to liberate Raqqa itself was begun.
ISIL's plan for the defence of Raqqa appears to have been built around establishing a sort of main headquarters within the central areas of the city. Roughly in the area between the an-Nadah district to the west and the Old City district to the east.
This believed main headquarters actually stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah, Amin and what is known as the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the Municipal Football Stadium.
ISIL seemed to assume that the SDF would attack from the north. As a result they established the bulk of their defences to the north of the city. Roughly between the old Syrian Army - Division 17 - base and the area of their main headquarters.
Instead what the SDF actually did was attack in three directions; The North, The West and the East. At the same time the SDF swept west-to-east from Tabqa along the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to isolate Raqqa from the main body of Syria.
The northern axis' first task was to liberate the Division 17 base. They completed that task on or around August 1st (1/8/17) before entering into a holding pattern.
The SDF's western axis entered the Raqqa via the Jazra suburb. By July 3rd (3/7/17) it had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.
The SDF's eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) it had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.
On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates.
On July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.
On August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This linked the eastern and western axis liberating the south of Raqqa from ISIL.
The SDF then set about liberating the districts which sit between the eastern and western outskirts and the area of ISIL's believed main headquarters.
On September 2nd (2/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in fully liberating the Old City district. This sits north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district, west of the al-Sinaa district and one city block east of the Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 8th (8/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Darayeh district. This sits directly north of the Shahada district and directly west of the al-Moroor district.
On September 10th (10/9/17) the western axis liberated the al-Moroor district itself. This also sits directly north of the Shahada district, directly west of the Security Box.
In doing this the SDF liberated a number of the key buildings that make up ISIL's believed headquarters.
On August 28th (28/8/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Children's Hospital Complex. This is located on the junction between Shahada district, al-Moroor district and the Security Box. It had long been used by ISIL as a military base and a command & control centre.
On September 6th (6/9/17) the SDF's western axis liberated the Court House and Criminal Security complex. This sits north of where al-Moroor district meets an-Nadah district and is directly across the road from the National Hospital Complex.
On September 12th (12/9/17) the SDF's eastern axis liberated the Governate Building. This sits directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district roughly 200 metres/yards or one city block south of Harun al-Rashid Gardens.
On September 28th (28/9/17) ISIL finally realised that their central headquarters were being overrun from the south, west and east. This prompted them to withdraw their forces from the north of the city in an attempt to defend the central area.
This triggered a mass collapse in ISIL's defences. In the space of little more than a day the SDF were able to fully liberate the Tishrin, al-Rawdah and Ramilah districts which sits to its north-east of the city. They were also able to liberate the Grain Storage area which sits to the north of al-Thawrah district and east of the Railway Depot/Station directly adjacent to Ramilah district.
In liberating the al-Rawdah district the SDF's eastern axis were also able to liberate the Dalla Roundabout junction and advance to the Naem Roundabout junction. This divides the area containing Harun al-Rashid Gardens to the south from the area containing the Municipal Football Stadium to the north-west.
ISIL's September 20th (20/9/17) collapse also allowed the SDF to liberate a number of the key landmarks that make up ISIL's central headquarters area.
In quick succession they liberated Harun al-Rashid Gardens and the Air Force Intelligence building which sits directly to its north. They also liberated the April 7th Garden and the Children's Garden. These sit close to the National Hospital Complex.
On September 25th (25/9/17) the SDF also liberated the al-Tawleed Hospital complex. This sits directly east of the Children's Garden in the area between the Naem Roundabout junction on the Municipal Football Stadium. In liberating the al-Tawleed Hospital complex the SDF united their eastern and western axis in the centre of the city.
On September 23rd (23/9/17) they liberated the Al Firdous Mosque. This sits directly across the road from the Children's Garden to the north-west.
On September 25th (25/9/17) they liberated the Imam Nawawi Mosque. This sits roughly in the centre of the an-Nadah district.
Immediately following ISIL's September 20th (20/9/17) collapse the northern axis moved from their holding pattern and began advancing south.
By September 29th (29/9/17) the northern axis had succeeded in liberating the Ba'ath and Andalus districts. These sit between the Divison 17 base and Railway Station/Depot. They had also succeeded in liberating the Railway Station/Depot itself.
By Tuesday (3/10/17) the northern had succeeded in liberating the area between the Railway Station/Depot and the main road which runs between the Military Intelligence building in al-Wahdah district and Train Square in Thawrah district.
These rapid gains mean that ISIL are now limited to a small area in the north of the city. This area is a rough "V" shape with the Naem Roundabout junction at its tip spanning out north to include parts of al-Wahdah, Hurriyah and Thawrah districts.
ISIL however does hold on to just two of the key landmarks in what used to be considered its main headquarters in Raqqa. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium which is sometimes known as; "The Black Stadium."
What has delayed the liberation of the National Hospital and Municipal Stadium complexes is that ISIL have kidnapped the civilians in the surrounding area.
ISIL have forced those potentially thousands of civilians into the buildings at the two locations and are using them as human shields. It is believed ISIL have rigged the buildings with explosives and are prepared to use heavy weapons to defend them.
As a result operations at those locations are not so much traditional warfare. Instead they more closely resemble urban hostage rescue operations. With both locations covering large areas containing multi-level buildings they are both extremely complex hostage rescue situations.
The situation at the Municipal Football Stadium seems to be completely without precedent. Or certainly any precedent I can recall.
The situation at the National Hospital seems similar to several previous situations. The November 2008 Taj Mahal Hotel siege in Mumbai, India. The October 2002 Dubrovka Theatre siege in Moscow, Russia. The September 2004 School Number One siege in Beslan, Russia.
None of those scenarios played out particularly well for the hostages.
Within the northern area which I think has to be dubbed the; "Victory Zone" fighting has returned to its usual tempo. This involves buildings slowly being liberated window-by-window, room-by-room and street-by-street.
Following the rapid gains of the September 20th (20/9/17) collapse this may seem as though the SDF's operations have slowed. However it is just them returning to the expected pace.
The SDF's east-to-west sweep south of Raqqa achieved its primary objective of cutting Raqqa of from the main body of Syria on June 29th (29/6/17). On July 30th (30/7/17) it was forced to stop its advance after taking up positions just north of the town of Dalhah around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
What stopped the SDF's west-to-east advance was not ISIL but the Syrians themselves. Since May they have been advancing east from Aleppo City to liberate the north of the country from ISIL. On July 30th (30/7/17) they reached Dalhah.
While the presence of the Syrians has prevented the SDF from advancing on the southern bank of the Euphrates it has not stopped them advancing on the northern banks. Starting from al-Karamah they advanced some 100km (60 miles) past Madan to roughly the Jubaylah area. This is around 10km (6 miles) north of Deir-ez-Zour City.
Alongside side their operation to liberate Raqqa City the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Cizre Storm" on September 9th (9/9/17).
The starting point for the operation is the Madan-Shaddadi Line.
This stretches from the town of Madan on the banks of the Euphrates River around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City to the town of Shaddadi on the banks of the Khobar River around 100km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The objective of the operation is for the SDF to advance some 200km (120 miles) south-east from the Madan-Shaddadi Line to Syria's border with Iraq.
This will see the SDF advance across the Khobar River basin allowing them to use the Euphrates River as the boundary of the area under their control designated; "Shangri-La." It will also see the SDF take control of a number of key oil fields keeping them out of the hands of both ISIL and the Syrian government.
On September 13th (13/9/17) the SDF reached the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City. They did this by extending a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shaddadi Line to the Industrial Zone.
Following an unfortunate delay the second phase of the operation was launched on September 20th (20/9/17). This saw the SDF advance from the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone towards the Khobar River on three axis.
The first axis set out to advance south-east from the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City along the north bank of the Euphrates. This axis is heading the general direction of al-Zuwaymiyah - a village on the junction of where the Khobar reaches the Euphrates. However the objective is to clear all of the area between the Industrial Zone and the Khobar River.
The second axis set out to advance east from the Madan-Shaddadi Line - Industrial Zone corridor. This axis is headed in the direction of as-Suwar - a town sitting on the banks of the Khobar around 50km (30 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour city.
The third axis set out to advance south from Shaddadi to the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar around 45km (25 miles) south of Shaddadi and around 95km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The first axis has now reached the area around the village of al-Zuwaymiyah. In the process it has liberated the al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields and the Jafra Oil & Gas Fields.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the second axis reached the town of as-Suwar and declared it fully liberated.
On October 4th (4/10/17) the third axis reached the town of Markadah. However it's liberation has not yet been confirmed.
The second and third axis are now advancing north and south respectively in an effort to unite between as-Suwar and Markadah. At current estimates they are around 5km (3 miles) away from each other.
16:55 on 13/10/17 (UK date).
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