On January 24th a suicide bomber attacked Moscow's Domodedvo airport killing 35 and injuring 180 more.
Now Russia is vast country with a long and complicated history. It has given the world such literary greats such as Tolstoy, Chekhov and Nabokov along with composers like Tchaikovsky and artists such as Faberge. It was also the first nation to embrace the ideology of Communism and has dominated the language of socialism and revolution ever since. As the USSR it fought bravely alongside the UK and the USA against the Fascism of Hitler and after that war conquered most of Europe. It went on to brutally put down uprisings in Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland before the Communist Empire finally collapsed in the early 1990's leaving the country with the sort of capitalism that had many people looking fondly towards the past. The Russian's are also famously grumpy and ferocious drinkers.
However for now the most important thing you need to know about them is that they are the closest thing Iran has to a friend at the moment. They helped to build Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant and due to the complexities of international loans still own most of the equity. Apart from providing money and technical support Russia has also given Iran lots of diplomatic help blocking calls for further sanctions at the United Nations and working with other nations to provide fuel swap deals that would stop Iran enriching uranium. In return they have put pressure on Iran to improve the way it treats women and homosexuals while getting Iran to moderate the brutality it used to put down 2009's failed Green Revolution. In short Russia is the most important country in Israel's world at the moment and Israel has been targeting it heavily.
Overtly this has been done by appointing the former Moscow bouncer, Avigdor Lieberman to the post of foreign minister. This has allowed the native Russian speaker to make frequent trips to the country where he has been able to strengthen the diplomatic ties between the two country's and has apparently prevented the sale of a Russian made air defence system to Iran. More covertly Israel has been trying to get Russia to feel Israel's pain by funding and training Islamic terror groups in the North Caucasus. After all the predominately white and poorly educated Muslims in the region are unlikely to be able to tell the difference between, say, a Syrian middle eastern man and an Israeli middle eastern man. This relationship first led to the Moscow underground bombings in March 2010 and since then the link has got stronger to the point where Mossad are now able to pick the targets and direct the attacks.
The trigger for the Domodedvo attack came in the form of the Israeli report into the Mavi Marmara shootings that was released on January 23rd. To the surprise of no-one this cleared Israel of any wrongdoing and placed the blame for the incident firmly on the Muslims on board. This is exactly the sort of thing that would encourage Islamic terrorists to seek vengeance by launching an attack. However I think the relationship between Israel and these North Caucasus groups is now so strong that it might be worth going back over the Arabic translations of the Israeli statements to see if actual code words were used. The idea was that the much more unexpected release of the Palestine Papers later that same day would serve to bury the Marmara report and trigger the Egyptian uprising just in time for the World Economic Forum. Then after the Domodedvo attack had taken place conspiracy theories would emerge that wrongly claimed that the Palestine Paper's were faked as a way to cover up Israel's involvement in the bombing. These incorrect conspiracy theories would then serve to restore the Palestinians faith in Fatah and the Palestinian Authority whilst breaking the Egyptian uprising just in time for the killing to start. At this point I don't think I'll be the first person to point out that this plan has gone a little bit wrong.
Oh and while we're vaguely on the subject does anyone else think that maybe Israel has been supporting the 9/11 Truth campaign as a way to discredit anyone who suggests that Israel may be involved in false flag operations?
Tuesday, 8 February 2011
Sunday, 6 February 2011
Daddy's Back!
And apparently I'm feeling a little bit arrogant.
In Egypt the daily rate for street thugs has risen from 50 Egyptian Pounds to 100 Egyptian Pounds but there are still very few takers. So while the anti-Mubarak protesters have been out in force, for this weekend, Egypt has been more peaceful then parts of the UK.
Meanwhile the European Union has joined the United States call for the process by which President Mubarak stands down to begin immediately. This is a diplomatic way of saying that Mubarak must leave and he must go sooner rather then later. This appears to have prompted the resignation/sacking of senior members of the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) politburo including Mubarak's son, Gamal. Criminal investigations have also been launched into senior Egyptian civil servants including those running the Interior Ministry who are responsible for Egypt's police. So, on the surface at least, the question in Egypt is no longer whether Mubarak will stay on as President but when will he leave and what will replace him.
Annoyingly the most sensible suggestion has come from the Muslim Brotherhood. Their idea is simply to follow the Egyptian constitution and have the speaker of the house take temporary charge much as would happen if an 82 year old President died in office. This would allow a new Parliament to be elected so it could debate and vote through the constitutional changes needed so a free and fair Presidential election can be held in September. As Egypt's uprising was driven by a wide variety of groups including business leaders, trade unions, the middle classes, Islamists and people who'd simply had enough getting these groups together within the open and civilised forum of a Parliament to negotiate a solution is by far the best idea. In fact you could say that this is exactly what Parliaments are designed to do in a democracy.
Although I don't agree the worry is that the Muslim Brotherhood will dominate this Parliament and use that dominance to swing the result of the Presidential election and future elections in their favour so they can set up an Iran-style theocracy. So the idea would be made much more palatable if the Muslim Brotherhood were prepared to limit their influence in that Parliament by capping the number of candidates they field to, say, forty.
Despite all this good news there are still worrying and not so subtle signs that Mubarak and those close to him have yet to fully accept that he will be leaving power. Therefore for the security and safety of those who have taken part in the protests I think that the street protests need to continue at a rate of at least one a week until Mubarak finally stands down. However I will be reducing my personal involvement in the situation because if it becomes a battle of wills between me and Mubarak this is likely to go on for far longer then it needs to.
In Egypt the daily rate for street thugs has risen from 50 Egyptian Pounds to 100 Egyptian Pounds but there are still very few takers. So while the anti-Mubarak protesters have been out in force, for this weekend, Egypt has been more peaceful then parts of the UK.
Meanwhile the European Union has joined the United States call for the process by which President Mubarak stands down to begin immediately. This is a diplomatic way of saying that Mubarak must leave and he must go sooner rather then later. This appears to have prompted the resignation/sacking of senior members of the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) politburo including Mubarak's son, Gamal. Criminal investigations have also been launched into senior Egyptian civil servants including those running the Interior Ministry who are responsible for Egypt's police. So, on the surface at least, the question in Egypt is no longer whether Mubarak will stay on as President but when will he leave and what will replace him.
Annoyingly the most sensible suggestion has come from the Muslim Brotherhood. Their idea is simply to follow the Egyptian constitution and have the speaker of the house take temporary charge much as would happen if an 82 year old President died in office. This would allow a new Parliament to be elected so it could debate and vote through the constitutional changes needed so a free and fair Presidential election can be held in September. As Egypt's uprising was driven by a wide variety of groups including business leaders, trade unions, the middle classes, Islamists and people who'd simply had enough getting these groups together within the open and civilised forum of a Parliament to negotiate a solution is by far the best idea. In fact you could say that this is exactly what Parliaments are designed to do in a democracy.
Although I don't agree the worry is that the Muslim Brotherhood will dominate this Parliament and use that dominance to swing the result of the Presidential election and future elections in their favour so they can set up an Iran-style theocracy. So the idea would be made much more palatable if the Muslim Brotherhood were prepared to limit their influence in that Parliament by capping the number of candidates they field to, say, forty.
Despite all this good news there are still worrying and not so subtle signs that Mubarak and those close to him have yet to fully accept that he will be leaving power. Therefore for the security and safety of those who have taken part in the protests I think that the street protests need to continue at a rate of at least one a week until Mubarak finally stands down. However I will be reducing my personal involvement in the situation because if it becomes a battle of wills between me and Mubarak this is likely to go on for far longer then it needs to.
Friday, 4 February 2011
Now Here's a Scary Thought.
In the middle east there is this country called Israel. They desperately want to attack another country in the middle east called Iran. When that happens tradition dictates that Iran must respond by attacking Israel leading to something called a war.
Elsewhere in the middle east there is a country called Egypt where the President has overwhelmingly been told to go by his people but is desperately trying to cling to power until at least September. At best this will lead to a nasty, summer long, stand-off that will destroy the Egyptian tourism industry. At worst it will lead to a bloody massacre that will increase anti-Israeli feeling across the Arab world. Already the situation in Egypt is preventing essentials like food an fuel from getting into Gaza increasing pressure on Hamas to attack Israel.
So if Israel attacks Iran before Mubarak stands down it will provoke a huge war. That war won't be enough to bring about the rapture but it will be one of the most brutal wars the middle east has ever seen. Under those circumstances how far do you think Israel will be prepared to go to defend itself?
Elsewhere in the middle east there is a country called Egypt where the President has overwhelmingly been told to go by his people but is desperately trying to cling to power until at least September. At best this will lead to a nasty, summer long, stand-off that will destroy the Egyptian tourism industry. At worst it will lead to a bloody massacre that will increase anti-Israeli feeling across the Arab world. Already the situation in Egypt is preventing essentials like food an fuel from getting into Gaza increasing pressure on Hamas to attack Israel.
So if Israel attacks Iran before Mubarak stands down it will provoke a huge war. That war won't be enough to bring about the rapture but it will be one of the most brutal wars the middle east has ever seen. Under those circumstances how far do you think Israel will be prepared to go to defend itself?
Thursday, 3 February 2011
Is Suleiman Still Talking?
Today (3/2) viewers of Egyptian state TV were treated to a seemingly endless interview with the country's newly appointed vice-President, Omar Suleiman.
The main purpose of the interview was to give Egyptian news something to report without having to mention the automatic gunfire and 10 confirmed killed that has been going on in streets of Cairo today. It also served the purpose of providing the reassuring glow of a functioning government in corner of any Egyptian households who might still be loyal to Mubarak.
Likewise I've heard but not seen that Mubarak himself has been appearing on ABC America to assure his supporters that he's still got the magic to wrap the Jews and the Americans round his little finger.
In Suleiman's interview he appeared to trying to filibuster the entire nation as he covered a vast range of topics including those "foreign elements who are trying to cause chaos in Egypt." While a name check is always appreciated the main topics he covered were;
The main purpose of the interview was to give Egyptian news something to report without having to mention the automatic gunfire and 10 confirmed killed that has been going on in streets of Cairo today. It also served the purpose of providing the reassuring glow of a functioning government in corner of any Egyptian households who might still be loyal to Mubarak.
Likewise I've heard but not seen that Mubarak himself has been appearing on ABC America to assure his supporters that he's still got the magic to wrap the Jews and the Americans round his little finger.
In Suleiman's interview he appeared to trying to filibuster the entire nation as he covered a vast range of topics including those "foreign elements who are trying to cause chaos in Egypt." While a name check is always appreciated the main topics he covered were;
- He promised to launch an investigation into who was responsible for ordering the thugs into Tahrir square although he ran into some trouble trying to explain why the fact that these thugs were plain clothes policemen didn't mean that mean that Egypt's noble police had been infiltrated by those nasty foreign trouble makers.
- He announced that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood had been offered the chance to join in a dialogue about forming a new government. This was an attempt to further consolidate Mubarak's position with the international community because while the Muslim Brotherhood are not the Taliban by any stretch of the imagination they are an Islamist party so their presence in the Egyptian government would be problematic to many people, myself included.
- Mainly he played for time. He claimed that Egypt's government needed 21 days to sort this out, 70 days to sort that out and 3 months to sort the other out. Basically he was just shouting random numbers at people so the only thing I can say to that;
It's Begun.
Yesterday, February 2nd almost medieval violence returned to the streets of Egypt as gangs of men armed with sticks, whips and machetes started to attack anti-government demonstrations. In Cairo, where the violence has been at it's worst, this first day has killed a minimum of five and injured at least 836 more.
Officially the violence has been caused by honest, hard working Egyptians who have been so outraged by the protests that they've spontaneously decided to take action to support their much loved President. In reality the protesters have been able to capture and search some of the attackers revealing them to be a mix of plain clothed police officers, members of Mubarak's political party and simply paid thugs. In Alexandria where the protests are at their strongest these armed gangs have been force to rely on uniformed police escorts in order to move around the city. The only good news is that because these pro-Mubarak supporters are just men for hire they will lack the stamina of legitimate protesters.
The purpose of the Mubarak regime getting thugs to attack the protesters is twofold. Firstly it reduces the number of people able to take part in protests by either killing them, seriously injuring them or making them too scared to take part. Secondly the violence creates the illusion that the anti-government protests are causing chaos in Egypt so Egypt and the world needs Mubarak to stay on so he can restore security and stability.
Having lived with Mubarak for thirty years the protesters know that if they back down now the violence will only get worse so they have called for another day of mass demonstrations on Friday February 4th. The worry here is that they will again focus their protests of Tahrir square. In the spring of 2010 people in Thailand staged mass protests against their government. These demonstrations focused on occupying and setting up a protest camp in the Ratchaprasong district of the capital. After probing attacks by the Thai security forces the protesters started setting up barricades and ended up trapped inside their own fortified camp. The Thai security forces then simply used snipers to kill the protest leaders before finally setting fire to the camp. Therefore it would be a better idea if the Egyptian protesters also used mobile demonstrations that focused on multiple locations.
Also there is no longer any point on relying on the BBC for news on the situation in Egypt. They've started producing special programming that means they are now acting as a 24hr a day pro-Mubarak propaganda service. They're failing to report that what they call pro-Mubarak protesters are being moved under police escort and they're refusing to show photographs where captured thugs are having their police ID cards taken off them. Also all presenters and guests are under strict orders to promote the official line that Mubarak has already made great concessions and most Egyptians fully support him and want the protests to stop. I knew it was a mistake to explain the situation to the Brits.
Officially the violence has been caused by honest, hard working Egyptians who have been so outraged by the protests that they've spontaneously decided to take action to support their much loved President. In reality the protesters have been able to capture and search some of the attackers revealing them to be a mix of plain clothed police officers, members of Mubarak's political party and simply paid thugs. In Alexandria where the protests are at their strongest these armed gangs have been force to rely on uniformed police escorts in order to move around the city. The only good news is that because these pro-Mubarak supporters are just men for hire they will lack the stamina of legitimate protesters.
The purpose of the Mubarak regime getting thugs to attack the protesters is twofold. Firstly it reduces the number of people able to take part in protests by either killing them, seriously injuring them or making them too scared to take part. Secondly the violence creates the illusion that the anti-government protests are causing chaos in Egypt so Egypt and the world needs Mubarak to stay on so he can restore security and stability.
Having lived with Mubarak for thirty years the protesters know that if they back down now the violence will only get worse so they have called for another day of mass demonstrations on Friday February 4th. The worry here is that they will again focus their protests of Tahrir square. In the spring of 2010 people in Thailand staged mass protests against their government. These demonstrations focused on occupying and setting up a protest camp in the Ratchaprasong district of the capital. After probing attacks by the Thai security forces the protesters started setting up barricades and ended up trapped inside their own fortified camp. The Thai security forces then simply used snipers to kill the protest leaders before finally setting fire to the camp. Therefore it would be a better idea if the Egyptian protesters also used mobile demonstrations that focused on multiple locations.
Also there is no longer any point on relying on the BBC for news on the situation in Egypt. They've started producing special programming that means they are now acting as a 24hr a day pro-Mubarak propaganda service. They're failing to report that what they call pro-Mubarak protesters are being moved under police escort and they're refusing to show photographs where captured thugs are having their police ID cards taken off them. Also all presenters and guests are under strict orders to promote the official line that Mubarak has already made great concessions and most Egyptians fully support him and want the protests to stop. I knew it was a mistake to explain the situation to the Brits.
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
Egypt's Uprising.
Over the past eight days the people of Egypt have taken to the streets calling for the resignation of the President, Hosni Mubarak. Although in terms of overthrowing a dictator eight days is barely the blink of an eye the Egyptian protesters have already made great progress.
When Mubarak started this uprising he saw it as a way of guaranteeing that his son, Gamal would take over as President in September. About 30 seconds into the process Mubarak discovered that there wouldn't be any support for this so he set about making sure that he could remain as President. By January 31st even this looked like it wouldn't be possible as the Egyptian army announced that they would be tolerating further protests and the vice-President, Omar Suleiman started making statements that sounded like his audition to the international community for the role of President of Egypt.
With obvious cracks starting to form at the heart of the Egyptian establishment on February 1st Mubarak was forced to make a rambling speech on state television in which he announced that he would be standing down as President in September and mumbled something about amending the constitution to bring in Presidential term limits. Although for all 30 years of Mubarak's rule Egypt has been in a state of emergency that has suspended the constitution this was clearly enough for the Egyptian army who, today (2/2), ordered the protesters to leave the streets in what can only be described as threatening terms.
This is a major problem because the protesters are past the point of no return. If they leave the streets now the army will also leave the streets and be replaced by the police. Based on how they've behaved in the past the Egyptian police will now spend the next seven months hunting down, kidnapping, raping, torturing and killing the protesters leading to the massive loss of life seen after the failed uprisings in Iran and Burma. With the opposition destroyed there will be nothing to stop Mubarak going back on his word and continuing as President come September.
It would be a much better idea then if the protesters stayed on the streets and forced Mubarak to stand down immediately and the Egyptian army took control of the country until September. Then a civilised election, where the peace treaty with Israel and the status of the Suez Canal are sacrosanct, can be held away from the fire and fury of insurrection.
When Mubarak started this uprising he saw it as a way of guaranteeing that his son, Gamal would take over as President in September. About 30 seconds into the process Mubarak discovered that there wouldn't be any support for this so he set about making sure that he could remain as President. By January 31st even this looked like it wouldn't be possible as the Egyptian army announced that they would be tolerating further protests and the vice-President, Omar Suleiman started making statements that sounded like his audition to the international community for the role of President of Egypt.
With obvious cracks starting to form at the heart of the Egyptian establishment on February 1st Mubarak was forced to make a rambling speech on state television in which he announced that he would be standing down as President in September and mumbled something about amending the constitution to bring in Presidential term limits. Although for all 30 years of Mubarak's rule Egypt has been in a state of emergency that has suspended the constitution this was clearly enough for the Egyptian army who, today (2/2), ordered the protesters to leave the streets in what can only be described as threatening terms.
This is a major problem because the protesters are past the point of no return. If they leave the streets now the army will also leave the streets and be replaced by the police. Based on how they've behaved in the past the Egyptian police will now spend the next seven months hunting down, kidnapping, raping, torturing and killing the protesters leading to the massive loss of life seen after the failed uprisings in Iran and Burma. With the opposition destroyed there will be nothing to stop Mubarak going back on his word and continuing as President come September.
It would be a much better idea then if the protesters stayed on the streets and forced Mubarak to stand down immediately and the Egyptian army took control of the country until September. Then a civilised election, where the peace treaty with Israel and the status of the Suez Canal are sacrosanct, can be held away from the fire and fury of insurrection.
Tuesday, 1 February 2011
It's Tuesday.
And as usual I'm back from the pub and a little bit drunk so it's probably not the best time for me to go messing about with middle eastern politics. That means I'll be leaving the Egypt situation alone for tonigh tbecause unless Hosni Mubarak's about to announce his immediate resignation the protests are still going to be there tomorrow.
I should though take the time to clear up one thing about Haiti. Jude Celestin is not the Americans puppet. If anything he's my puppet and as you may have noticed I'm both quite lazy and really easily distracted. So when I endorse someone for a job I do so because I think they're capable of doing that job without having to bother me any further.
I should though take the time to clear up one thing about Haiti. Jude Celestin is not the Americans puppet. If anything he's my puppet and as you may have noticed I'm both quite lazy and really easily distracted. So when I endorse someone for a job I do so because I think they're capable of doing that job without having to bother me any further.
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