Monday 22 April 2019

Sri Lanka's Easter Bombings.

Sunday (21/4/19) marked Easter Day.

This is the most important festival in the Christian calender. Coming at the end of the fasting month of Lent it marks the execution and resurrection from the dead of Jesus Christ. A symbol of God's power to absolve humans of their sins.

In Sri Lanka the day was marred by a series of multiple bomb attacks. Almost all of which occurred at 08:45 (local) 03:30 (GMT).

The majority of the attacks occurred in the capital Colombo. Striking the Shangri-La Hotel, the Kingsbury Hotel, the Cinnamon Grand Hotel and the Christian Saint Anthony's Shrine.

At the same time another bomb struck the Christian Saint Sebastian's Church in Negombo. A city located around 35km (20 miles) north of Colombo.

Also at 08:45 (local) 03:15 (GMT) a sixth bomb struck the Zion Christian Church in Batticaloa. A city located on the opposite side of the island. Located around 220km (130 miles) east of Colombo.

Subsequently the Sri Lankan security forces raided two properties in Colombo resulting in two further explosions. At a hotel close the Dehiwala Zoo at 13:45 (10:15) and at a residential property in the Dematagoda district of the city at 14:15 (10:45).

A seventh, unexploded bomb was discovered at Colombo's International Air Port. Today (22/4/19) an eighth, unexploded bomb was discovered in a van close to the Saint Anthony's Christian Church in Colombo. This was destroyed in a controlled explosion.

So far the combined death toll from these multiple attacks stands at an astonishing 290. With a further 500 significantly wounded.

Although unprecedented these attacks seem intended to invoke memories of Sri Lanka's long, 1983 to 2009 Civil War.

Within Sri Lanka the largest ethnic group is the Sinhala. However there is a sizable Tamil minority.

The civil war stemmed from an attempt by the Tamils to establish an independent nation, known as Tamil Eelam in the North and East of Sri Lanka. The largest Tamil armed group during the civil war was the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Commonly known as the Tamil Tigers.

With no group claiming responsibility for Sunday's (21/4/19) attacks it seems inevitable that suspicion would fall on the Tamil Tigers or other Tamil groups. Particularly with the tenth anniversary of the end of the civil war coming in mid-May 2019.

Quite apart from the fact the Tamil Tigers have been inactive for a decade Sunday's (21/4/19) attacks do not resemble any of the tactics the group has used in the past.

Although the Tamil Tigers did make widespread use of suicide bombers, particularly suicide bombers they generally focused their attacks on so-called military targets. Members of the Sri Lankan security forces and their leaders.

Also while many Tamils are Hindu and many Sinhala are Buddhist the Sri Lankan civil war simply never had a religious element. It instead was focused entirely on national liberation. Establishing a Tamil nation. The Tamil Tigers certainly never had any conflict with Sri Lanka's Christian population.

In fact the Tamil Tigers were part of a loose international network of national liberation movements. These included the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) in Northern Ireland, UK, The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey.

During the Cold War this network of national liberation movements were backed by the Communist nations, led by the Soviet Union. As a result they adopted revolutionary socialist ideologies which include the aggressive rejection of all religions. Which they consider to be anti-revolutionary.

Current Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan is continually trying to convince people that the PKK is the same as the Syrian Democrat Forces (SDF/QSD). Erdogan is attempting to do this to use the threat of PKK terrorism to secure permission to invade and occupy the area of Syria currently under SDF control. An area designated Shangri-La.

If Sunday's atrocious attacks were wrongly blamed on the Tamil Tigers it would obviously deeply damage their reputation. By extension it would also damage the reputation of the other groups in the global network. Including the PKK.

Erdogan has long attempted to claim that the PKK and the SDF are the same thing. So the backlash created by Sunday's (21/4/19) attacks in Sri Lanka would strengthen his demands to attack the SDF in Shangri-La. To defend Turkey from terrorism of the sort seen in Sri Lanka.

Currently the main issue facing the SDF in Shangri-La is how to deal with the thousands of members of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) they have taken prisoner. Particularly how to hold those prisoners to account for ISIL's War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.

The final stages of Sri Lanka's civil war saw multiple accusations of War Crimes against both sides. But particularly charges of the indiscriminate killing of civilians and prisoners against the Sri Lankan Army under then President Mahinda Rajapaska.

As these killings were aimed against members of a specific ethnic group there has been some debate as to whether they amount to the Crime Against Humanity of Extermination/Genocide.

Those, such as Erdogan, who wish to help ISIL evade justice will point to the failure to prosecute over crimes allegedly committed during the Sri Lankan civil war as an example of a double standard against Muslims.

The US government's concerns over War Crimes committed at the end of the Sri Lanka Civil War were exposed in the diplomatic cables which were obtained by Chelsea Manning. Then published by Wikileaks.

This is an issue which has once again risen to the fore.

Following the extension of Britain's exit from the European Union (EU), the Brexit, Ecuador allowed British police to arrest Julian Assange, the Wikileaks founder. The US has since sought Assange's extradition from Britain specifically on the charge of helping Chelsea Manning break the password protection on those diplomatic cables.

Sri Lanka is geographically close to India. The two nations are separated by just the Gulf of Mannar which is only 30km (20 miles) wide at its narrowest point. Sri Lanka is also culturally very close to India with India also having a sizable Tamil population.

Due to this cultural closeness the Indian government long supported the Tamil Tigers during the Sri Lankan Civil War. Supplying them with weapons and establishing training camps for Tamil Tiger fighters within India between 1983 and 1987.

In 1987 India effectively invaded the Tamil Eelam areas of Sri Lanka. Under the guise of providing a peacekeeping force to deescalate the civil war.

However India and the Tamil Tigers quickly fell out, with the Tamil Tigers siding with the Sri Lankan Army to attack the Indian peacekeeping force. Prompting India to withdraw its forces in 1990.

The conflict within Syria seems to be heading towards a frozen conflict. With Turkish and Turkish backed Al Qaeda forces occupying the Sudetenland, Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road areas.

It is similar to the frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (NKR). That particularly puts Russia in difficult positions as it tries to maintain close links with both Azerbaijan and Armenia as they fight each other.

Probably the World's most famous frozen conflict is the one between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region.

As a direct result of events in Syria the Kashmir conflict recently warmed up. Starting with the killing of 40 Indian paramilitary police in a bus bombing on February 14th (14/2/19).

This attack was very reminiscent of the August 1988 Ballgawley Bus Bomb. Carried out by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) as part of The Troubles conflict in Northern Ireland.

In response to that attack the British government imposed a broadcast ban. Preventing the media from distributing PIRA propaganda or; "Giving voice to the terrorist cause."

In February 2019 the issue of ISIL members held prisoner by the SDF was being given global attention by Britain through the case of Shamima Begum. Given the hero status much of the western media has given to the likes of Begum even Pakistan, as a Muslim majority nations seems to think that a similar broadcast ban would be appropriate.

India blamed the February 14th (14/2/19) bus bombing on Islamist terror groups backed by Pakistan as part of the Kashmir conflict. As a result the escalating tensions have called into focus the armed groups Pakistan supports against India and the armed groups India supports against Pakistan.

The Tamil Tigers being a very famous example of an armed group that was supported by India.

India is currently in the midst of its General Election. The largest democratic election in the World this lasts for more than a month. Beginning on April 11th (11/4/19) until May 19th (19/5/19).

Escalating the Kashmir situation was part of a deliberate strategy by incumbent Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). They are Hindu nationalists so anything that shows of India's power as a Hindu nation energises their base.

One aspect of the main opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party's campaign has been demands that Britain apologises for the 1919 Jallianwala Bagh massacre. A move intended to embarrass Modi and the BJP because despite their claims of nationalism they actually sat out India's attempts to free itself from British rule.

Narendra Modi is perhaps most notorious for his role in the 2002 anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat State. As state governor Modi was accused of fuelling anti-Muslim sentiment fuelling the riots. This is actually something that saw Modi banned from the US until he became Prime Minister in 2014.

If Sunday's (21/4/19) attacks in Sri Lanka were wrongly blamed on the Tamil Tigers it would not take long for people to point out support for the group amongst India's Hindus. Thus tarnishing Modi's reputation and hopefully harming his chances in India's ongoing General Election.

Erdogan has long attempted to present himself as the guardian of oppressed Muslims everywhere. Be it Palestinians facing Zionist Jews in Israel or Rohingya Muslims supposedly being oppressed by Buddhists in Myanmar. Like Myanmar the majority of Sri Lanka's Sinhala are Buddhist.

Sri Lanka also has a small Muslim population, around 10%. A worryingly large percentage of that small Muslim population have travelled to fight alongside ISIL and associated groups in Syria and Iraq.

Sri Lankan Muslims who have returned from fighting in Syria and Iraq have formed the National Thowheed Jamath (NTJ). In late 2017 and early 2018 the NTJ conducted a vandalism campaign targeting Buddhist statues and places of worship.

As it was intended to do that campaign escalated tensions between Sri Lankan Muslims and Buddhists. Things boiled over on February 26th 2018 (26/2/18) when a group of Muslims attacked a Buddhist truck driver. This triggered 12 days of anti-Muslim rioting.

It seems that it was the NTJ who carried out Sunday's (21/4/19) attacks. Their objective in doing this seems to be to trigger another anti-Muslim backlash and another round of anti-Muslim rioting.

With the group not formally claiming the attack the likes of Erdogan will instead claim that it was the work of the Hindu Nationalist Tamil Tigers. The government blaming Muslims and the ensuing anti-Muslim backlash is just a conspiracy by Buddhists to oppress Muslims.

As within Myanmar it is only Erdogan who can protect the World's Muslims from this evil conspiracy against them.

It also seems intended to serve as a threat to other Muslim nations to continue supporting Erdogan and ISIL. It is a particular threat to Pakistan and Bangladesh who have both very publicly rejected ISIL through, particularly, the Shamima Begum case.

Featuring eight bombs which were supposed to explode simultaneously across the breadth of Sri Lanka Sunday's (21/4/19) attack was a very sophisticated one. It was achieved despite Sri Lanka having only a small Muslim population.

Muslim majority nations like Pakistan and Bangladesh have got to look at that and be worried what Erdogan could do to them if they don't comply.

17:00 on 22/4/19 (UK date).


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