Britain's Brexit Withdrawal Agreement: Part Two (Draft).

A direction continuation of Part One; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/12/britains-brexit-withdrawal-agreement_12.html

The other area which seems of importance to people is the Northern Ireland Backstop. Or to give it its formal name; "The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland."

I should start by pointing out that the Northern Ireland Backstop is not technically part of the Withdrawal Agreement. Instead it is a legally binding protocol under the Withdrawal Agreement.

I know that sounds pedantic. However legally binding protocols under agreements and other statutory instruments rely almost exclusively on precision and pedantry.

The Withdrawal Agreement sets out a Transition Period. Plan A is that all outstanding issues on Britain's future relationship with the EU will be resolved during this Transition Period.

However if that Plan A fails the Withdrawal Agreement lays out a contingency plan. The Transition Period can be extended. The Plan B.

If both Plan A and Plan B fail the Withdrawal Agreement lays out a third contingency. This is the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. The Plan C.

So when British MP's such as Esther McVey appear on TV demanding Prime Minister May abandons the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. In order to draw up a Plan B.

Well, it really gives you a headache. Particularly when they're not immediately corrected by the interviewer.

In order to understand why the Ireland/Northern Ireland border is such a contentious issue you could go back to the Norman, Strongbow invasion of Ireland in 1170. Or; "Brentry, Annex One" as I believe it's now known.

You could also look at Martin Luther's decision to nail his Ninety-Five Theses to the doors of All Saints Church in Wittenberg, Germany. In October 1517.

It might also be worth looking at the British Act of Settlement of 1701.

After all the Act of Settlement introduced the Royal Prerogative. Due to the antics of Gina Miller in the 2016; "Enemies of the People" case it was found the Royal Prerogative could not be used to negotiate Brexit. Giving British Parliamentarians this oh, so meaningful say of theirs.

However what is most relevant to the Ireland/Northern Ireland border issue is the so-called; "Good Friday Agreement." Or, to give it its formal name; "The 1998 Belfast Agreement."

The purpose of the 1998 Belfast Agreement was to bring about the end of a period known as; "The Troubles."

Displaying typical British understatement The Troubles was a low-intensity, but often brutal civil war. Fought across Northern Ireland, the British Mainland and even as far as Spain and Gibraltar.

One of the main provisions of the Belfast Agreement is the removal of any physical border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

At the time of the Belfast Agreement the Ireland/Northern Ireland border was operated by the British Military. Border posts and checkpoints were small military bases.

Rather like the network of Control Points the Turkish Military currently operates in the Sudetenland of Syria. Or the network of Observation Posts the US Military is currently establishing in the Shangri-La area of Syria. In order to deter a Turkish invasion and occupation.

The border posts the British Military operated along the Ireland/Northern Ireland border during The Troubles are remarkably similar to the Observation Posts the Israeli Military operates along the Palestinian West Bank Separation Wall.

This militarised border created a very aggressive and hostile environment. Which was extremely stressful for all involved. Particularly civilains.

There is a British comedian, Patrick Kielty. He is married to British TV presenter Cat Deeley, who Americans may have heard of. Patrick Kielty grew up in Northern Ireland during The Troubles. He can tell you a story about how, having just passed his driving test he crashed his car.

Emerging from the wreck Patrick Kielty was not presented with sympathetic firefighters or paramedics. Instead he was confronted by British soldiers in full combat gear, leaping from their armoured vehicle to point assault rifles in his face. Forcing him to prove he wasn't a terrorist. He was just a teenage boy who'd made a fool of himself.

Another of the provisions of the Belfast Agreement was the withdrawal of British troops. They were replaced by the newly formed Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI). Although a civilian police force the PSNI are still extremely heavily armed.

If there's a terror attack in Europe or a mass shooting in America you will often see police SWAT teams running about in combat gear. That is how the PSNI conduct routine, day-to-day patrols. Particularly in the rural border areas.

So no-one wants to see a return to the aggressive and hostile environment of a so-called; "Hard Border" between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

However while soldiers and their toys are part of the issue it is not the main issue with the border.

The overarching ethos of the Belfast Agreement was to use economic prosperity as a mechanism for peace.

For his own reasons Jacob Rees-Mogg seems to have absolutely no interest in explaining this to people. However if he were to attempt to he would probably reach for Greek Mythology. Particularly the battle between Poseidon and Athena.

Compared to other developed EU Member States Britain is relatively small. Compared to Britain as a whole Northern Ireland is absolutely tiny. With a population of just 1.8 million people. As with small island states Northern Ireland's small population means that it's never going to have a big economy.

When there's not much to go around everyone starts wondering if other people are taking more than their fair share. Leading to conflict. Particularly when members of one religious group think members of another religious group have absolutely no right to exist. Let alone a right to housing or food.

As far back as 1965 Protestant groups such as the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) were operating paramilitary death squads in Northern Ireland. To kidnap and kill Catholic civilians. Prior to founding the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Dr, Rev Ian Paisley was a member of the UVF.

However the widely recognised start of The Troubles was a massive riot in 1969 known as; "The Battle of the Bogside."

Relatively poor Catholic residents of the Bogside Housing Estate held a civil rights march. To protest the awarding of social housing to a single, Protestant woman. Over a homeless Catholic family. Relatively wealthy Protestants decided to mock the Catholics by rolling pennies down the Falls Road into the Bogside Estate.

So when the Protestant DUP play, at their rallies songs like; "Penny Lane" by the Beatles. Or "Penny Arcade" by Roy Orbison it has a very different meaning. As does the Beach Boys song; "Sloop John B."

At the time of the Battle of the Bogside policing in Northern Ireland was the responsibility of the almost exclusively Protestant Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC). They were backed by the unpaid volunteers of the exclusively Protestant Ulster Special Constabulary (USC) known as; "The B-Specials."

The B-Specials were a Protestant paramilitary group. One authorised by and backed by the British State.

The RUC and the B-Specials' response to the Battle of the Bogside was to open fire with heavy machine guns. Not just against the rioters but against all the houses in the Bogside Estate.

The first official fatality of The Troubles was a Catholic soldier in the British Army. Home on leave he was killed by an B-Special bullet from a Browning M2 machine gun while standing on the balcony of his mother's home in the Davis Flats building.

In the eyes of the RUC and the B-Specials the fact he was serving in the British Army was apparently not enough to wash away the crime of being Catholic.

So officially the British Military was first deployed to Northern Ireland to protect the Catholic minority. From the Protestant RUC and B-Specials.

One of the British Military's first tasks was to disband the B-Specials. They were replaced by the Ulster Defence Regiment (UDR). Who were hardly much better.

Particularly under Prime Minister Margret Thatcher the British mainland went through an extensive revision of the history of The Troubles. On the mainland the focus is very much on Catholic paramilitary groups. Such as the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) and the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA).

These Catholic paramilitaries simply did not exist at the start of The Troubles. The INLA were not formed until 1974. Five years after the Battle of the Bogside.

The primary purpose of removing the Ireland/Northern Ireland border under the Belfast Agreement is to boost Northern Ireland's economy by allowing for tariff-free trade.

The thinking being that as Northern Ireland's economy grows the sectarian divisions and conflict will reduce.

At around 13:40 on 13/12/18 (UK date) there is still so much more to come.

Edited at around 18:30 on 13/12/18 (UK date) to copy & paste, from another place;

At the time of the Belfast Agreement Northern Irish society was deeply segregated. In a way that makes the US' Jim Crow-era look like a walk in the park.

The current UK Secretary of State (Chief Minister) for Northern Ireland, Karen Bradley recently made a bit of a fool of herself. She declared that before taking up the post she didn't realise how deeply segregated society in Northern Ireland continues to be.

For example she didn't know that in Northern Irish politics almost all political parties have a religious affiliation. Catholic parties simply don't even attempt to campaign in Protestant areas. Likewise Protestant parties simply don't even attempt to campaign in Catholic areas.

At the time of the Belfast Agreement this segregation wasn't just social it was also physical. There were giant concrete barriers, known as; "Peace Walls" between Protestant and Catholic areas. In order to stop the residents of those areas from killing each other.

These Peace Walls were remarkably similar to the blast walls around the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq. They are also remarkably similar to the Separation Wall between Israel and the Palestinian West Bank. The reason they are so similar is that both Iraq and Israel stole the idea from Northern Ireland.

Trade and employment have proven themselves to be very effective mechanisms for bridging these, literal, segregation walls.

For example Dennis, the Protestant farmer may despise all Catholics. Yet he seems to get on rather well with Patrick, the Catholic farmer south of the border who buys his crops to feed his cows.

Likewise Patrick may hate all Protestants. Yet he seems to get on rather well with Kevin, the Protestant who runs the dairy north of the border which buys his cow's milk.

This sort of mechanism for peace is what Soda Stream were trying to achieve with their plant Lehavim in the Israeli occupied West Bank. So I continue to be unimpressed by Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) forcing the closure of the plant in March 2016.

Not that this post is really crying out for more tangents.

In Northern Ireland the Belfast Agreement has been a resounding success. The generation born after 1998 contains far fewer just absolute headbangers.

The removal of the Ireland/Northern Ireland border has led to a significant boost in the economy. This has fuelled a growing middle-class, which both Catholic and Protestant, is more than happy to move out of the segregated and dilapidated social housing estates.

Things have improved to the point that back in 2014 I thought it was safe for me to start making jokes about The Troubles. In the context of the current war in Syria.

Amid the fury of the Brexit debate though I'm starting to think it might be time to update the codebook. "Dixie" and "Dollywood" are current front runners.

The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Known colloquially as; "The Northern Irish Backstop."

As I've mentioned the Plan A set out in the Withdrawal Agreement is for all outstanding issues to be resolved during the Transition Period.

If Plan A fails then the Withdrawal Agreement sets out a Plan B. The Transition Period will be extended.

It is only if both Plan A and Plan B fail the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, Plan C, will be invoked.

The moment that the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland is invoked Britain, in its entirety will leave both the EU Single Market and the EU Customs Union.

However Northern Ireland will simultaneously adopt, under British law a set of rules that are almost identical to the rules of the EU Single Market.

There is though one huge and key difference. Northern Ireland will not adopt the EU Single Market rules regarding the Free Movement of People/Free Movement of Human Capital.

It is hard to overstate just how massive a concession from the EU Prime Minister May has been able to win on this point.

On Saturday (8/12/18) the coalition governing EU member state, Belgium collapsed. It was brought down by the N-VA Party in protest over the Free Movement of People.

Last night (12/12/18) saw large, and at times violent protests in Budapest, capital of EU Member State Hungary. In protest against measures to tackle the Hungarian labour shortage caused by the Free Movement of People.

Despite the abolition of the Free Movement of People all citizens of Northern Ireland will continue to be dual nationals. Holding both British and Irish citizenship. As per the Belfast Agreement.

British and Irish nationals will also continue to be completely free to travel between and work within Britain and the Republic of Ireland. Under the terms of the 1923 Common Travel Area.

On the topic of irritating headaches Britain has two female comedians. Aisling Bea and Katherine Ryan. Both are Irish citizens. Since 2015 both of their entire acts have been built around how Brexit will force them out of Britain.

That is absolute rubbish. Both live and work in the UK under the Common Travel Area of 1923.

Quite how someone named Aisling Bea can forget she's Irish is completely beyond me.

The Common Travel Area of 1923 however only applies to British and Irish citizens. It does not apply to EU citizens residing in the Republic of Ireland.

The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland does though contain a provision which grants EU citizens transit through Northern Ireland.

So if an EU citizen wants to fly into Derry City Airport in Northern Ireland in order to visit the border town of Muff in the Republic of Ireland. Possibly for no other reason than its got a really funny name. Derry City Airport has to allow them to do so.

I don't think Derry City Airport along with local car hire firms and even the most sectarian taxi drivers wouldn't want to turn away that tourist money.

So this transit provision is really the question that no-one asked. The protocol though has provided for the question should it ever arise.

At around 18:35 on 13/12/18 (UK date) there is still so much more to go.

Edited at around 21:15 on 13/12/18 (UK date) to copy & paste from another tab;

Under the protocol Northern Ireland not will not join, nor remain part of the EU Single Market.

However the fact it will join a single market with the EU causes significant problems. Both for the British mainland and for the wider EU.

It risks turning Northern Ireland into a massive marketplace for smuggled goods. Both from the EU into the British mainland and from the British mainland, and by extension the wider World into the EU.

So to prevent this the British mainland will, simultaneously adopt, under British law a set of rules that are almost identical to the rules of the EU Customs Union.

If you wish to check exactly what the rules both Northern Ireland and the British mainland will be adopting Annexes 1 to 10 of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland provide a 143 page list.

Despite the similarity of these rules under the protocol the British mainland will not join, nor remain part of the EU Customs Union.

Instead it will join special customs union with the EU of which it is the only member. I will endeavour to explain the extremely technical differences between the rules later on this post.

First though I should dispel one of the biggest myths about this customs union and the EU Customs Union.

Being a member of either this customs union or the EU Customs Union DOES NOT stop Britain reaching and implementing trade deals with countries outside of the EU.

Either customs union prevents Britain from doing tariff-free trade deals with countries outside of EU. It can still implement trade deals. However those deals must impose tariffs under the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) provisions of the General Agreement on Trade & Tariffs (GATT). The legal basis on which the World Trade Organisation (WTO) operates.

The fact that the British mainland will be entering into a special, unique customs union is another absolutely massive concession British Prime Minister has been able to win from the EU.

As I mentioned in part one a significant thing which prompted British people to vote to leave the EU was a desire to take back control. To ruled by British laws, interpreted and enforced by British Courts.

The words used in the rules governing both the Northern Ireland single market and the British mainland customs union may be identical to the EU rules. However they are technically British laws. The EU has conceded that they can be interpreted and enforced solely by "competent" British Courts.

If the EU wishes to have a British Court ruling deemed incompetent it has to go through a lengthy and independent dispute resolution and arbitration process. During this process the ruling of the British Court stands.

By pushing for a No Deal scenario Hard Brexiteers want, as an alternative to have any points of law interpreted and ruled upon by the United Nation's International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Britain has absolutely no Judges sitting on the ICJ.

Britain has had a Judge on the ICJ since it was founded in 1945. Out of the Nuremberg Tribunals in Nazi war crimes.

However in November 2017 Britain was forced to withdraw its candidate to sit as a Judge on the ICJ. After the other members of the ICJ made it quite clear that they would not be supporting Britain.

Curiously this occurred at exactly the time the Hard Brexiteers were at their most vocal in the claim that Britain doesn't need to pay its divorce bill with the EU. And that the ICJ would certainly rule in Britain's favour.

At around 21:20 on 13/12/18 (UK date) I think I'm only about 50% of the way in. Having already decided on the need for an entirely seperate part three.

Edited at around 13:00 on 14/12/18 (UK date) to copy & paste from another tab;

Prime Minister May has also been able to extract another concession from the EU.

The rules governing both the Northern Ireland single market and the British mainland customs union can be replaced by laws passed exclusively by the British Parliament. On an ad-hoc, case-by-case basis. With the consent of the EU through the Joint Committee mechanism.

What Britain cannot do though is replace the rules laid out in the protocol with ones that offer less protection. Something which is known as; "Backsliding" in the jargon.

The overwhelming majority of these minimum standards are not something Britain adheres to under EU law. They are obligations that Britain has accepted under various, global treaties of international law.

So, for example the DUP can't suddenly introduce a law allowing them to deny public services such as housing to Catholics, Muslims, Jews, Hindus or anyone else on religious grounds. That is a restriction placed on Britain by the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) of 1948.

It was a restriction that was again, specifically explained to Dr, Rev Ian Paisley in the 1998 Belfast Agreement. Which Paisley signed to confirm that he had received, read and accepted.

Likewise Britain's environmental protection obligations come from the UN's 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. Along with the UN Framework Convention on Climate (UNFCCC) of the same year. Under which you have the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Ideally I would like to see all references to the Paris Agreement removed. However that's not really anything to do with this document. I just mean from the Earth, generally.

In the area of taxation the UK is obligated to adhere to principles of good governance. As defined by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Prime Minister May has also been successful in extracting concessions from the EU in the very fine, technical details of these rules. And how they are enforced.

Every member of the EU Single Market is also a member of the EU Customs Union. However agreeing to become part of the Single Market involves waiving most of the restrictions of the Customs Union. So most members of the Single Market simply forget that they are also members of the Customs Union.

In the interests of getting this long stream of jargon to make anything resembling sense I will ignore, for the moment, that under the protocol Northern Ireland will not be in the EU Single Market. Nor will Britain be in the EU Customs Union.

With the customs union extending across the entire single market no-one is particularly concerned with goods produced in either, moving between the customs union and the single market. In the jargon this is known as; "Free Circulation."

What people are concerned about is goods produced in the single market using the customs union as a way to sneak out into the global market. They are even more concerned about goods produced in the global market using the customs union as a way to sneak into the single market.

Even here the primary concern is not about lost tax revenue. It is about public safety, quality and manufacturing standards.

I don't want to single anyone out but concerns about Chinese safety, quality and manufacturing standards is not "Health & Safety Gone Mad!" Even Chinese parents don't want to give their children food, medicines and toys manufactured in China.

Under the protocol all goods manufactured solely in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and on the British mainland are considered in Free Circulation. This particularly applies to farm products. So Dennis, Patrick and Kevin can keep growing their hay, feeding their cows and selling their milk.

Things get more complicated when products are manufactured within either the customs union or single market. Yet include parts or ingredients that are imported from outside the customs union.

These products require extensive customs and border controls. In order to keep track of each individual part or ingredient. Whether they adhere to relevant standards and whether the relevant tariff/tax has been paid.

Here the EU has been very generous in its definition of; "Free Circulation."

As an example the computer keyboard I'm using to write this was made in China. However I did not import it from China. I brought it from a shop on the high street.

At some point in the supply chain the shop in the high street imported it from China. Making sure that it adhered to the relevant standards and that the relevant tariff/tax had been paid.

Under the protocol this keyboard is now considered in Free Circulation.

Therefore I can package it up with a similarly free circulating monitor and tower and sell it to someone in the Republic of Ireland. Or anywhere else in the EU Single Market. Without having to go through all the form filling and customs checks.

This is a very big deal if you're manufacturing for export to the EU something on the UK mainland which requires that one very complex part from Japan.

The EU is also being very generous regarding the type of checks for goods which are wholly, or in part considered not to be in Free Circulation.

Imagine you're trying to import/export a shipping container holding a thousand, individually boxed laptops, wristwatches or any other generic widget.

What would happen at the border between the customs union in the single market is the shipping container would be impounded and opened. Each individual box would then be opened to check it contains what it claims to.

Customs officials would then take a random sample of, say 10 of the laptops. They would then completely take them to bits to check the origin of each individual, tiny part.

If they can't put them back together again, well that's your problem. Customs officials are not liable for loss or damage during checks.

If there is a trade war going on nations can use this system of checks to really screw with you. It allows them to stand up at the ICJ and say;

"No we've haven't put an illegal quota on goods from Spain. Most of the imports just keep getting broken on the docks."

The protocol doesn't bother with any of these checks. Instead British exporters to the EU simply have to attach a certificate to the shipping container and the customs officials just wave it through.

The specific design of that certificate has not yet been decided upon. Nor has the process of obtaining one. I suspect though for a member of trusted trader scheme it will be a case of filling out a form online and printing off the certificate in the form of a sticky label yourself.

This is an area where the British mainland's unique customs union differs from Turkey's treatment under the EU Customs Union. Now he's had it explained to him Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wobbly economy seems even more furious than usual.

Of course if the certificate system is widely abused than the EU can impose the physical checks.

That worst case scenario though is the WTO/GATT rules the Hard Brexiteers are demanding be adopted.

Instead of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.


13:10 on 14/12/18 (UK date).