Wednesday 25 April 2018

Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 3, Day 3.

A direct continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-3.html

On March 5th (5/3/18) the Islamists suffered a massive collapse on their eastern flank. In the space of a day this saw them lose around 35% of the territory they had controlled at the start of the Battle of East Ghouta.

This collapse seemed to inspire East Ghouta's civilians. Sensing freedom at last they rose up against the Islamists in the Hamouriyah and Saqba districts on March 6th (6/3/18). In Hamouriyah they succeeded in expelling the Islamists.

Both Hamouriyah and Saqba sit at the south of the block of districts to the west of East Ghouta where the majority of the population are located. Saqba sits directly north of Jisreen district and Hamouriyah sits directly north of Saqba.

The Islamists reaction to this popular uprising against them was bizarre to say the least.

They claimed that the protests against them were in fact not protests at all. Instead the were the result of a Syrian Chemical Weapons attack.

The only way that would have been possible was if the Syrians had used the LSD -like 3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate (QNB/BZ).

This was either causing East Ghouta's civilians to hallucinate and protest as part of those hallucinations. Or causing us to hallucinate the protests.

I think this incident really shows the Islamists attitude towards claims of Chemical Weapons use.

They view the allegations of Chemical Weapons use as a sort of get-out-of-jail free card.

Every time they suffer a setback they simply have to claim the Syrians used Chemical Weapons. Then the international community will start pressure on the Syrians in order to protect the Islamists.

On March 6th (6/3/18) the Islamists were certainly suffering a great number of setbacks.

Aside from the civilian uprisings in Hamouriyah and Saqba the Islamists were also forced to withdraw from Misraba district.

Misraba sits on the eastern edge of the area where the majority of the population are located. South of Douma and west of Hasrata separated by Satra district.

The reason for the Islamists withdrawal was to shore up their defences in Hasrata district. There they were coming under increasing pressure from the Syrian's north-western axis.

On the Syrian's south-eastern axis March 6th (6/3/18) saw them liberate Hawsh al-Dawahra. That sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of Hazrama. The starting point of the south-eastern axis.

With Hamouriyah freed March 7th (7/3/18) saw the protests continue in Saqba and spread to Kafr Batna. This sits adjacent to Saqba on the south-west.

The Islamists withdrawal from Misraba the previous day allowed the Syrian's north-western axis to make significant advances. On March 7th (7/3/18) the Syrians not only took control of Misraba but also liberated Beit Sawa. This sits to the south of Misraba.

At this point the Syrians made the Islamists an offer. Transport to elsewhere if they surrendered.

Under the offer the Army of Islam would be transported to Daraa Province which borders Israel and Jordan. Faylaq al-Rahman would be transported north to Afrin Canton.

Neither the Army of Islam nor Faylaq al-Rahman accepted the offer.

The following day (8/3/18) brought more significant breakthroughs for the Syrians.

The Syrian's north-eastern axis liberated the Misraba Farms area. This sits to the west of Misraba and Beit Sawa.

In liberating this area the Syrian's north-western axis linked up with south-eastern axis. This divided the areas under Islamist control into two parts. Both cut off from each other.

Alongside linking up with the north-western axis the Syrian's south-eastern axis liberated the Aftris district and the adjacent Aftris Air Defence Base. Aftris sits to the east of Saqba and the Air Defence Base sits to the east of Aftris.

By liberating Aftris and the Air Defence Base the Syrian's south-eastern axis reached the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live.

The unification of the Syrian's north-western axis and south-eastern axis had the effect of seeing the Islamists lose 50% of the territory they had held at the start of the battle.

Almost like clockwork the Islamists responded to these losses by accusing the Syrians had used Chemical Weapons in Hamouriyah.

The Islamists claim was almost immediately denied by medical providers within Hamouriyah.  They confirmed that the people shown in the videos released by the Army of Islam were in fact suffering from smoke inhalation, carbon monoxide poisoning, dust inhalation and other breathing problems associated with fire and explosions.

The next few days were relatively quiet. However by March 12th (12/3/18) the Syrians were back to making rapid progress.

They liberated the town of Madyra. This sits to the north-west of Beit Sawa district. In doing this the Syrians finally and completely broke the siege at the Hasrata Armoured Vehicle Base which had been under Islamist attack since December 2017.

The Syrians also completely liberated the farmland around Satra and Mesraba districts. This fully cut Douma off from Hasrata.

The Islamists also made a rare bit of progress themselves. The Army of Islam managed to seize control of Rayhan. This sits to the east of Douma and was lost as part of the Islamist's March 5th (5/3/18) collapse.

The Army of Islam also agreed a deal with Turkey. They would send fighters to the Sudetenland. In return Turkey would send unspecified supplies from the Sudetenland to Douma.

This should have set alarm bells ringing.

On March 1st (1/3/18) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was briefed on transfers of Chemical Weapons agents from Turkey into the Sudetenland via the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. Those Chemical Weapons agents were being stored in the Sudetenland towns of Luzah and Habt.

Obviously it should have raised concerns that these Chemical Weapons agents would be included in the equipment from the Sudetenland to Douma in East Ghouta. Something the Army of Islam would only do if they were planning to use Chemical Weapons in Douma.

This Army of Islam fighters for equipment deal meant that East Ghouta was quiet on March 13th (13/3/18).

By March 14th (14/3/18) the Syrians were back to making progress. The liberated Rayhan and Hawsh Mubarakat to the east of Douma.

The Syrians also took control of around 50% of Jisreen district. This sits at the southern tip of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live. Specifically south of Saqba and Kafr Batna.

Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda and associated groups launched an operation named; "Wrath of Ghouta" against the Syrians in support of Islamists within East Ghouta. It collapsed within a day.

On March 15th (15/3/18) the Syrian's elite Tiger Force advanced from Rayhan to liberate the Douma Industrial Zone. This put the Syrians and the eastern gates of Douma itself.

To the south-west of East Ghouta the Syrians liberated Saqba. They also finally reached and took control of Hamouriyah whose residents had freed themselves from the Islamists back on March 6th (6/3/18).

Hamouriyah and Saqba being reconnected with the outside world was like a dam breaking. That single day saw some 10,000 grateful civilians flood out of those areas and into the safety of Syrian controlled territory.

On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrians completed their liberation of Jisreen district to the south of Saqba.

This left the Islamists in control of just 7 towns or districts in East Ghouta: Kafr Batna. Hazzah. Ayn Tarma. Zamalka. Jobar. Arbeen. Harasta. Douma.

With the Islamists in East Ghouta now seeming to be on the brink of defeat their allies across Syria launched attacks against the Syrians. The intention being to divide Syrian forces and reduce the pressure on the Islamists in East Ghouta.

This included attacks by Islamists in Daraa Province. Those attacks caused the Syrians to withdraw their offer of transferring the Army of Islam from East Ghouta to Daraa Province upon surrender.

Most notably the Islamists in East Ghouta were aided by ISIL. They control the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. This is located amid the southern districts of Damascus. Roughly 6km (3 miles) west of the East Ghouta district of al-Maliha.

From the Yarmouk Camp ISIL launched a sustained attack against Syrian forces in the al-Qadam district of Damascus. This is located adjacent to the western side of the Yarmouk Camp.

Following a few days of relative quiet on March 19th (19/3/18) the Syrians liberated Kafr Batna. This gave them almost complete control of the southern tip of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live.

This latest defeat prompted Ahrar al-Sham to surrender the Harasta district to the Syrians.

It also prompted Faylaq al-Rahman to begin negotiations to surrender the four districts under their control: Jobar. Arbeen. Ain Tarma. Zamalka.

Rather than following their peers in negotiating a surrender the Army of Islam on March 20th (20/3/18) launched a counter-offensive to recapture Misraba south of Douma. This was quickly absorbed and repelled.

Alongside repelling the Army of Islam's attack on Misraba the Syrians were able to liberate the Ain Terma Valley. This sits directly to the south of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live. Beneath the districts of Jisreen, Kafr Batna and Ain Terma.

After liberating the valley the Syrians entered Ain Terma itself.

The Syrians though could not sustain the pressure of fighting multiple battles on multiple fronts.

The Syrians lines in the al-Qadam district of Damascus collapsed in the face of the assault ISIL had launched from the Yarmouk Camp on March 16th (16/3/18). This allowed ISIL to take control of al-Qadam district.

16:45 on 25/4/18 (UK date).

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