Tuesday 24 April 2018

Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 3, Day 2.

My previous post on the war in Syria was all the way back on February 23rd (23/2/18).

At that time there were five key areas: Shangri-La. Garvaghy Road. Afrin Canton. The Sudetenland. East Ghouta.

Shangri-La:

This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.

As a result ISIL maintain a small presence within Shangri-La. Both along the northern bank of the Euphrates River and the desert area along the Syria/Iraq border.

The area on the southern bank of the Euphrates is under the control of the Syrians themselves. They are backed by longstanding allies Russia and Iran alongside the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

What allowed the Syrians to liberate the southern bank of the Euphrates was a nearly year long operation clearing ISIL from the centre of Syria. Both to the north and the south.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra of course had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

Therefore it is reasonable to describe everything in the centre of Syria between Damascus/Aleppo City and the Euphrates River as being under Syrian control.

The exception is a small area around al-Tanf. This is home to a CJTFOIR base designated; "Bobby Sands."

Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.

As a result a small ISIL presence persists in and around al-Tanf.

Garvaghy Road:

This sits to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016. It remains under the illegal occupation of both the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

As part of the occupation of Garvaghy Road the UTA have been steadily absorbing both ISIL and Al Qaeda fighters into their ranks alongside Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA.

Afrin Canton:

Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west. In February 2018 it was under the control of the SDF.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.

The Sudetenland is the heartland of Al Qaeda in Syria.

However in order to disguise their true identity Al Qaeda have formed a coalition with a number of Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA. One of these largest FSA fragments are the astonishingly brutal Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki.

Although they are currently in the process of creating a new identity this group currently likes to be known as The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters.

Dividing Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland you have an area known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."

This contains 10 control points belonging to the regular Turkish military. These effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.

East Ghouta:

This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.

In February 2018 East Ghouta was under the control of several Islamist groups operating in cooperation with each other.

One of the largest of these groups is the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR).

Another large group is Al Qaeda operating under the name; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

In November 2017 Al Qaeda in East Ghouta formed a formal coalition calling itself the; Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad.

Al Qaeda's partner in the Army of Mohammad are the largest group operating in East Ghouta. The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).

Although it is ISIL who garner all the headlines the Army of Islam are the most vicious and, dare I say, evil group in the entire Syria conflict.

In July 2015 a propaganda video emerged showing 18 prisoners being paraded for the camera and then executed.

What was different about this video was that it was ISIL fighters who were the prisoners. They were being executed by members of the Army of Islam.

As the video explained the Army of Islam were carrying out the killings in order to punish ISIL for being too moderate. In the Army of Islam's eyes ISIL were not doing enough to exterminate Syria's religious and ethnic minorities.

Throughout the summer of 2015 the Army of Islam conducted a series of massacres of members of Syria's Druze minority religious groups. This prompted Israel's Druze population to riot demanding action was taken to prevent the ongoing genocide.

In November 2015 the Army of Islam released video from inside East Ghouta.

It showed the Army of Islam placing as many as 1,000 civilian prisoners from the Alawite minority religious group in cages and parading them through the streets. The civilians were then placed atop of Army of Islam military buildings to act as human shields against Syria air strikes.

The Army of Islam are also recognised as the official Syrian opposition within the Geneva Process on Syria.

So when politicians of any nation say they support the Geneva Process what they are supporting is putting the Army of Islam in charge of all of Syria.

Also active within East Ghouta although in much smaller numbers is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.

Obviously all events in Syria are interlinked and affect each other.

For example UTA attacks in Afrin Canton have forced the SDF to redeploy forces from Shangri-La. This along with the threat of Israeli and US-led airstrikes against the Syrians have allowed ISIL to regain strength and attack the Syrians around al-Tanf.

However on April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam claimed a Chemical Weapons attack occurred in East Ghouta. In a blaze of publicity this triggered western airstrikes against the Syrians on April 14th (14/4/18).

Therefore it is probably best that I start with the Battle of East Ghouta.

Rather than being a city or town in its own right East Ghouta is a roughly 275kmsq (165 milesq) area made up of various towns and residential districts.

The most western of these under Islamist control is the Jobar district. This sits technically inside of Damascus itself to the west of the Southern Bypass Highway.

The most easterly district under Islamist control is the town of Hazrama. This sits around 15km (10 miles) due east of Jobar.

The most northern point under Islamist control is technically the Baghdad Bridge across the M5 Highway.

However the most northern populated area is the town of Douma. This sits around 10km (6 miles) south-east of the Baghdad Bridge along the M5 Highway. If you were looking at a clock face Douma sits roughly in the 10 o'clock position.

The most southern point under Islamist control is technically the sparesly population Harasta Qantarah. This sits around 15km (10 miles) south of the Baghdad Bridge.

However the main populated area to the south is the al-Malhia district. This sits around 7km (4 miles) west of Harasta Qantarah.

The majority of the population are located in roughly a dozen districts and towns in the west of East Ghouta. Stretching from al-Malhia district to Douma.

In setting out to liberate East Ghouta the Syrians established two axis; In the north-west and the south-east.

The North-Western Axis sought to enter at the Harasta district. This is located between Douma and Jobar district.

The South-Eastern axis south to enter at the town of Hazrama.

In preparation for the operation the Syrians also established a Humanitarian Corridor to allow civilians to flee the fighting. This was located at the Wafidain Checkpoint which enters Douma from the north.

Fighting has taken place between the Syrians and the Islamists on the borders of East Ghouta almost continuously throughout this eight year conflict.

Much of December 2017 along with January and February 2018 have been dominated by the Army of Islam's attempts to capture the Hasrata Armoured Vehicle Base in Hasrata from the Syrians.

Therefore it is hard to say exactly when the Battle of East Ghouta began.

However the first meaningful clash seemed to take place on February 22nd (22/2/18). Here the Syrian south-eastern axis clashed with Islamist forces just outside Hazrama.

The Syrians first significant breakthrough came on February 26th (26/2/18). Here the south-eastern axis managed to liberate Hazrama along with the nearby town of Nashabiyah.

This is significant because the Islamists had built an elaborate trench system known as; "The Line of Death" around Hazrama and Nashabiyah. By simply going around this Line of Death to liberate Hazrama and Nashabiyah the Syrians had placed themselves within the Islamists main line of defence.

On the same day (26/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis were able to enter the al-Ajami district of Hasrata. This is located adjacent to the Armoured Vehicle Base.

The Islamists responded to these defeats by claiming that the Syrians had used Chemical Weapons. Specifically Chlorine Gas.

On February 27th (27/2/18) the Syrians south-eastern axis made another major advance. They were able to capture a trench network on the outskirts of Hawsh al-Dawahra. This sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of Hazrama.

Also on that same day (27/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis succeeded in liberated the al-Ajami district of Hasrata.

The Islamists responded to those defeats in two ways.

Firstly they again claimed that the Syrians had used Chlorine Gas. Specifically at al-Shifuniyah which sits around 2km (1 mile) north-west of Hawsh al-Dawahra.

Secondly specifically the Army of Islam shelled the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint. The objective being to stop civilians fleeing into Syrian controlled territory.

On February 28th (28/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis liberated the Harasta Farms area. These sit to the north-east of Harasta between Harasta and Douma. In the process the Syrians took control of and cut the main road leading between Harasta and Douma.

The south-eastern axis also made progress advancing from Hawsh al-Dawahra to al-Shifuniyah. Specifically liberating Sifco Laboratory complex on the north-western outskirts of Hawsh al-Dawahra.

The Army of Islam continued to shell the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.

Over the next few days the Syrians south-eastern axis continued to make rapid progress.

On March 1st (1/3/18) they liberated the al-Bashoura Air Defence Base. This sits almost directly south of Hawsh al-Dawahra. On March 2nd (2/3/18) the Syrians liberated the Regiment 274 Base. This sits almost directly south of al-Shifuniyah. Around 3km (2 miles) west of Hawsh al-Dawahra.

These gains by the Syrians south-eastern axis triggered a massive collapse of the Islamists entire eastern front on March 5th (5/2/18).

In the space of a single day the Islamists lost control of everything from Ar Rayhan in the north to Beit Nayem in the South.

Ar Rayhan sits around 7km (4 miles) north of Hazrama and around 1km (0.6 miles) north of al-Shifuniyah. Crucially it sits around 5km (3 miles) east of Douma which is considered to be on the west of East Ghouta.

Beit Nayem sits around 4km (2 miles) west of Hazrama and around 5km (3 miles) south of al-Shifuniyah. It also sits just 4km (2 miles) east of the Jisreen district which makes up the western area which is the most populated in East Ghouta.

This single day collapse saw the Islamists lose around 35% of the territory they controlled at the start of the battle.

17:30 on 24/4/18 (UK date).

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