Putting the Bang! into Bangkok.

Yesterday (17/8/15) a bomb exploded in Thailand's capital Bangkok killing 21 people and injuring 120 more. Much to my annoyance in order to explain this properly I have to go back to Rihanna's 2013 "Diamonds" World Tour, particularly the third and final Asian leg.

At the time I explained in great detail what Rihanna's CIA handlers hoped to achieve from each stop on this tour - the so-called "Operation Misery." However if I had to pick one main theme it was the US' "Pivot Towards the Pacific" policy. This is a rather clumsy attempt to contain China's influence in the region mainly by building up the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North Korea) into a bogeyman for the US to protect everyone from and opening up trade and diplomatic ties with China's neighbours.

So for example in their recent Trafficking in Persons report the US State Department decided to ignore the massive and destructive human trafficking route of Burmese Muslims (Rohingya) through Burma (Myanmar), Thailand and Malaysia because to acknowledge it would prevent the US from fast tracking trade negotiations with those nations.

Rihanna's role within this policy was to be the divisive issue which people would either rally around or oppose. This would give the US a clearer indication of where people in the region stood on a wider range of issues such as human rights, people trafficking and gender equality.

Despite not hosting a concert on the tour as a long term ally of the US - particularly during the Vietnam war - Thailand were granted an extra-special, front-row seat to events. After performing in China Rihanna took an unscheduled and rather secretive trip to Thailand. Following her concert in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which was really the most high pressure stop of the entire tour Rihanna again disappeared off-grid for another unscheduled trip to Thailand. This prevented her from spending more then a few hours in Israel despite the fact that Israel - at great effort to itself - only invited Rihanna to perform in the country to provide her with a safe space following the trip to the UAE.

With the entire plan being flawed from the start Rihanna's special visits to Thailand didn't provide the country with any special insight or advantage. Instead it ended up provoking an international outcry against Thailand when Rihanna was pictured posing with endangered animals such as the Slow Loris and Elephants which enraged animal rights activists. Whilst on holiday in her native Barbados Rihanna was recently pictured posing for similar photographs this time with a baby monkey which is likely to have triggered some bad memories for the Thais.

The Thai Monarchy were so disappointed by the gift of Rihanna that almost immediately afterwards their yellow shirted supporters took to the streets demanding the overthrow of the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra whose supporters were red shirts. After several months of tension between the two groups of protesters on the streets the Thai military felt comfortable enough in May 2014 to move in an stage a coup that removed the Yingluck government and replaced it with a junta backed by the Monarchy. That junta remains in place to this day and just a week before the explosion the junta introduced constitutional reforms in the form of a  "National Strategic Reform and Reconciliation Committee" which would allow the junta to remain in place for the next five years.

Although there is a clear rivalry between the two nations and despite the US' best efforts this is not the Cold War so the US and China actually maintain extensive diplomatic ties. In fact on August 13th and 14th (13&14/8/15) China and the US were holding their annual bilateral meeting on human rights. This comes a few months after their annual bilateral meeting on the topics of economic strategy.

Both as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) China and the US have also recently been working closely together on the issues of Iran's nuclear program and the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). A recent point of tension between the US and pretty much the rest of the UNSC has been the adoption on August 7th (7/8/15) of a resolution to establish a tribunal to investigate and possibly prosecute the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

The US has been very resistant to this move because an independent tribunal will reveal that ISIL routinely use chemical weapons in both Syria and Iraq. This will make it much more difficult for the US to blame any and all chemical weapon attacks on the Syrian government. 

Last Wednesday (14/8/15) there was a massive chemical explosion in Tianjin, China. Although this covers a range of issues the main one is ISIL's use of chemical weapons. After all on a practical level there is almost no difference between testing soil samples for chemical residues in the aftermath of an industrial accident and testing soil samples for chemical residues in the aftermath of a chemical weapons attack. In fact the clean up in Tianjin is being led by the division of the Chinese military that would respond in the event of a chemical weapons attack.

It is against this backdrop of intense negotiations between two of the three main regional powers that the Bangkok explosion took place. It seems to have been specifically aimed at Chinese tourists in order to show the US that Thailand shares its hatred of the Chinese while at the same time providing ample opportunity for the Thai junta to talk directly to the Chinese government rather then the US. The rest of the story plays out like a particularly gruesome game of bingo in which a complex geo-political issue is shouted out and everybody's forced to check if it matches an issue on their list.

For example the bombing occurred at Bangkok's Ratchaprasong junction. This practice of a military junta overthrowing an elected government is hardly new in Thailand. The last time it happened was in 2006 - the 11th coup in Thailand's 83 year history. In 2010 after 4 years of rule by a military junta the red shirted supporters of the deposed government took to the streets in mass protest calling for the restoration of democracy. On April 10th 2010 (10/4/10) the junta tried to put an end to these protests by sending combat troops to break up a protest camp at Ratchaprasong junction. This resulted in the death of 24 people and the wounding of some 800 more.

Yesterday's bomb actually targeted the Erawan Shrine which sits on Ratchaprasong junction. Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erodgan's family name is possibly more properly pronounced as "Erowan." With the US so far failing to withdraw support negotiations for Erdogan's plan to invade Syria under the pretence of establishing a safe-zone are really too finely balanced for me to comment on. However with the attack seeming to target Chinese tourists and Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha immediately coming out to say that the attack was intended to destroy; "Our economy, our tourism" there seems to be a particular interest in a recent apparent diplomatic spat between Turkey and China.

Back in June Erdogan falsely accused China of banning it's Muslim minority Uighurs from fasting during Ramadan. This prompted supporters of Erdogan's Islamist Justice & Development Party (AKP) to attack anyone vaguely Asian looking - South Koreans mainly - in retaliation. In response China issued a warning to its citizens to take extra care when travelling to Turkey. The Thais seem undecided as to whether this was China simply issuing sound advice in response to a credible threat or a discreet attempt to harm Turkey's tourism industry by discouraging visitors. I personally think that it was the former. Then of course there is the persistent suspicion that Erdogan is backing Islamist terrorists to attack western tourist in Turkey's Mediterranean rivals Egypt and Tunisia in order to help boost Turkey's own tourism sector.

The Erawan Shrine is actually a shrine to the Hindu god Brahma. Narendra Modi - the current Prime Minister of the region's other major power, India - has a reputation for being a Hindu Nationalist. Whilst he was Governor of India's Gujarat state in 2002 Hindu Nationalists rioted killing an estimated 900 to 2000 Muslims. Modi has long been dogged by allegations that he either caused or allowed the riots and prior to becoming Prime Minister was actually banned from the US for a long time as a result.

Needless to say Modi's election as Prime Minister has increased tensions between India's Hindus and Muslims and with India's Muslim neighbour Pakistan. For example Modi has recently launched a campaign to promote the Hindu pratice of Yoga as part of India's gift to the World. This has prompted attacks from Muslims who accuse Yoga of being part of a conspiracy to destroy Islam. On the day of the Bangkok explosion Modi was in the UAE on a diplomatic mission. Although the UAE are the most level-headed of the Gulf states the fact that it is a majority Muslim nation Modi's reputation would have made this a rather tense visit.

In the hours after the explosion Thai media started reporting that 27 people had been killed and were tersely slapped down by the junta who claimed that only 15 people had been killed. This could have been a genuine mistake in the chaotic aftermath but it could also have been a reference to the fact that in the aftermath of the Tianjin explosion that Chinese authorities removed some 55,000 web postings on the grounds that they were spreading false rumours.

Also on the day of the Bangkok bombing Egypt ratified a new anti-terrorism law which amongst other things created the offence for journalists of wilfully inflated the numbers of security personnel killed in terrorist attacks. Al Jazeera in particular have been utterly furious about this because in their efforts to overthrow the Egyptian government they routinely inflate the number of security personnel killed in terrorist attacks as a way to celebrate the terrorists. For example on July 1st (1/7/15) terrorist launched an attack in the Sinai Peninsula. Al Jazeera excitedly reported that in excess of 80 soldiers had been killed. In reality only 17 soldiers had been killed.

This issue of inflated death tolls is also hugely controversial in ISIL main area of operation - Syria. For example yesterday the US State Department issued a bizarre statement condemning the killing of more the 100 civilians in a Syrian government air-raid on a market place in the Damascus suburb of Douma. Everyone else is talking about 58 people being killed and the majority of them being inside the HQ of a insurgent group that regularly fires rockets and artillery into Damascus' other suburbs.

Although with their announcement of a yellow shirted suspect the Thai junta seem to be on the brink of admitting to the attack in the immediate aftermath they seemed happy to let everyone speculate that the attack had been carried out by Islamist terrorists. In fact there were reports that two other bombs had been defused by the heroic Thai security forces saving many lives. This story of three simultaneous bombs being placed brought back memories of the 2002 Bali bombing in which 202 people were killed whilst making the Bangkok attack seem much more dramatic then it actually was.

Not having a particularly large Muslim population and having being ruled by military dictatorship for most of it's history Thailand doesn't really have a strong Islamist terrorist movement. However it does have something of a separatist movement in the south which was really established as part of the Cold War. With Soviet sponsorship drying up some of these separatists have splinted into more Islamist rather then nationalist groups. Some of these groups have also hosted Indonesian groups such as the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and Jemaah Islamiah (Islamic Congregation) which carried out the 2002 Bali bombings

This pattern is almost identical to the Philippines Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) which splintered into the poorly acronymed Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the much more radical Abu Sayyaf. As I mentioned in my post yesterday the US only seemed to raid the compound of ISIL fighter Fathi ben Awn ben Jildi Murad al-Tunisi because he had assumed the name "Abu Sayyaf." This raid took place just as US Secretary of State John Kerry was travelling to China in preparation for the annual bilateral on economic strategy.

Although previously being allied with Al Qaeda following ISIL's declaration of a Caliphate in the summer of 2014 Abu Sayyaf pledged allegiance to ISIL instead. Since then Abu Sayyaf have been recruiting fighters from across the region and sending them to fight in Syria and Iraq.

Due to it's large tourist industry which makes it something of a regional transport hub many of these fighters are travelling through Thailand which is obviously a concern for the Thai junta.

17:15 on 18/8/15 (UK date).