Operation Featherweight: Month 11, Week 4, Day 7.

Over the past ten days most of my time has been concentrated in stopping US President Barack Obama - Commander in Chief of the coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - tearing his own nation apart with racist and sectarian terrorist violence. If you look at today's verdict in the Zack Davies trial in Mold, UK or the January 25th fires in South Oxfordshire, UK it's clear that I'm not the only one. After all when it comes to divisive, racist politics the UK can certainly claim to be a world leader.

However my last post on the subject was all about how the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) had succeeded in liberating the town of Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. This was a huge victory for them because it not only succeeded in linking up the central Kobane Canton and the eastern Cizire Canton but it also cut ISIL's main supply route between Turkey and their de facto capital of Raqqa some 90km (53 miles) to the south.

Since then the YPG have secured Tel Abyad and advanced some 40km (24 miles) further south securing the town of Ain Issa just 50km (30 miles) outside of Raqqa. In my experience the YPG have proved themselves to be highly skilled and disciplined fighters so I think this advance was merely an attempt to secure the territory between Tel Abyad and Raqqa to prevent ISIL mounting a counter-offensive against Tel Abyad itself. ISIL though seem to have viewed it as an attempt to liberate Raqqa itself and have begun re-deploying forces to the city and bolstering it's defences to repel such an attack.

However this does serve to underline that if US-led coalition were to recognise the YPG as the ground force against ISIL in Syria and arm them accordingly they may soon be able to force ISIL from their capital.

With that quick update on the YPG's progress out of the way I would have liked to have spent the rest of this post concentrating on the developing situation with the Druze on Syria's south-western border with Israel. The extremely short version is that local units of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) who have previously fought as part of the Al Qaeda-led "Army of Conquest" (Jaish al-Fatah/JAF) coalition but now deny it at all costs have advanced on villages in the Syrian Golan Heights which are home to the Druze religious group. During the fighting the FSA have carried out at least confirmed massacre of the Druze which has enraged Israel's own Druze population not least because in an effort to maintain the quiet Israel has been allowing wounded FSA fighters to cross the border for medical treatment.

What is making Israel's Druze so furious is that they have long maintained what is termed a "Blood Covenant" with Israel's Jews. In short the Druze have long been prepared to fight and die to protect Israel's Jews. In return Israel's Jews are supposed to be prepared to fight and die to protect the Druze. With the Druze being massacred by the FSA and Israel then treating wounded members of the FSA this is being seen as a violation of the covenant and tension is beginning to rise. On Monday (22/6/15) a group of Druze attacked ambulances carrying FSA fighters in Israel killing one. 

It of course would be extremely difficult for Israel to take military action against the FSA though because in the first instance the FSA and JAF are the 'moderate' opposition that the US and other members of the anti-ISIL coalition have been supporting to fight ISIL. Also the moment Israel gets involved in the war in Syria the conflict will immediately be portrayed by both ISIL and JAF as a Zionist war against Islam. This will significantly boost support for both groups making the conflict worse. In fact an ISIL affiliated group in Gaza seems to be trying to provoke Israel into fighting them there in an effort to portray ISIL as the defenders of Muslims against the Zionists.

However whatever I wanted to talk about today has been completely overshadowed by an ISIL attack on the city of Kobane that began before dawn. As always in war the situation has been rather chaotic but it appears that the attack began with three Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) being detonated. Amid the chaos that created small, highly mobile groups of ISIL fighters wearing FSA uniforms charged around the city attacking and killing civilians at random. The tactics used were very similar to those seen frequently in Afghanistan or during the 2011 terror attacks in Mumbai, India. Essentially small groups of terrorists enter a city and try and cause as much terror and disruption as possible before the security forces can kill or capture them.

The attack has been brought to an end with 30 ISIL fighters and 25 civilians being killed. Several ISIL fighters have also been captured alive. Separately 20 civilians were killed in a similar attack on the village of Barkh Butan which sits around 30km (18 miles) south of the city of Kobane within the Kobane Canton.

What made today's attack so shocking was that it took place with the city of Kobane. Since the city was liberated back in January the YPG have continued relentlessly pushing ISIL far away from the city. On the western front of Kobane Canton the nearest ISIL held position is the town of Jarabulus which is 30km (18 miles) away across the Euphrates River. On the southern front the front-line is marked by the M4 road which is some 50km (30 miles) away. The eastern front no longer really exists with Kurdish control stretching all the way to Iraq's border with Iran some 630km (380 miles) away. 

Although this has been something of an asymmetric war meaning that these front-lines aren't marked by lines of trenches full of troops there are certainly frequent observation posts and check-points. As such it is extremely unlikely that several VBIED's and convoys of vehicles full of fighters would have been able to cross the front-lines and then travel undetected into the centre of Kobane. Even in 4x4's in daylight it would take you at least an hour to drive from Jarabulus to Kobane city.

As such the only reasonable explanation is that the attack originated in Turkey and was launched through the Mursitpinar border crossing as happened at the end of November 2014.

At the beginning to the operation to liberate Tel Abyad Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated rumours started by the Jaish al-Islam (Brigade of Islam) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant (FML) - both members of the JAF coalition - that the YPG intended to ethnically cleanse the town of Arabs and Turkmen. This was widely seen as an attempt by Erdogan to bring international pressure to bear to stop the YPG operation and leave Tel Abyad in ISIL hands and certainly there has been no ethnic cleansing in Tel Abyad since the YPG took control. However during the operation a large number of ISIL fighters fled into Turkey. There has been no word on what Turkey did with these fighters but just on Monday (22/6/15) Turkey warned the YPG that it would not tolerate them crossing it's "Red Lines" which apparently include the Syrian group "violating Syria's territorial integrity."

As such it seems entirely reasonable to suspect that today's attack on Kobane was Turkey's punishment of the YPG for cutting ISIL's supply line at Tel Abyad. This theory is strengthened by the fact that there is CCTV footage of one of the VBIED's crossing into Kobane from Turkey via the Mursitpinar border crossing.

As I said at the time of last November's ISIL attack on Kobane from Turkey with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passing a Chapter 7 resolution calling on all nations to do everything in their power to defeat ISIL Turkey cannot be allowed to support them without there being consequences.

In terms of the attack itself it was shocking and it was terrifying. However that is all that it was. It completely lacked any wider military objective and it is unlikely that ISIL will be able to repeat it. Really it was just ISIL throwing a temper tantrum in response to all the defeats the YPG have inflicted on them in recent weeks.

It does though highlight the need for the US-led coalition to bring this war to end by defeating ISIL as quickly and as decisively as possible.

20:40 on 25/6/15 (UK date).