This afternoon a Boeing 777 operated by Malaysia Airlines (MH17) has crashed close to the city Donestk in the Donbass region of Ukraine. It is believed that all 280 passengers and 15 crew aboard were killed in the crash. As it is extremely unlikely that a Boeing 777 - even one operated by Malaysia Airlines - would break apart in mid-air it is strongly suspected that this aircraft was brought down by a military air defence missile.
This actually fits into something of a pattern in the area. On Monday (14/7/14) a Ukrainian military transport crashed as it was making its descent into Lugansk airport killing all 49 on board. Today a Ukrainian military Su-25 fighter aircraft crashed in an undisclosed location causing the pilot to safely eject. On both of these occasions the government in Kiev immediately accused Russia of shooting down the aircraft citing the anti-Kiev rebels lack of access to military air defence systems as evidence. This despite the fact that as long ago as May 2nd (2/5/14) the anti-Kiev rebels have demonstrated that they do have those capabilities which they used to shoot-down two Ukrainian military helicopters. As a result I am highly suspicious of anything the Kiev government has to say because they have a clear anti-Russian agenda which is what triggered the anti-Kiev rebellion in the first place.
However assuming that the anti-Kiev rebels did indeed shoot-down both the transport and fighter aircraft I still think that it is highly unlikely that they shot-down this passenger aircraft. Although they have been labelled as "terrorists" by the Kiev government the rebels have so far not employed any terrorist tactics and they have most certainly not shown any desire to carry out the type of mass casualty attack favoured by Islamists. I suppose there is a possibility that an inexperienced rebel using one of these air-defence systems mistook MH17 for a military aircraft on radar and engaged what they thought was a legitimate military target. While facts are thin on the ground at the moment there is a suggestion that MH17 was off-course for an unexplained reason which would support this theory. If that is the case then it highlights what I've been saying all along that the Ukrainian people need to be given the right to hold a General Election so they can vote out the neo-Nazi junta that is trying to purge ethnic Russians from the nation and in the process plunging the country deep into crisis and civil war.
However there is sadly a possibly more sinister explanation to today's events. Just yesterday (16/7/14) the European Union (EU) and the United States unveiled a new round of sanctions against Russia. Officially these sanctions are to punish Russia for orchestrating the anti-Kiev rebellion but as with the coup itself they are to punish Russia for its support for the Syrian government. One of the companies targeted by these sanctions makes air defence systems of the type suspected of being used today. I think it is fair to say that the UK via Malaysia and the Netherlands are very much committed to punishing Russia for its support for Syria and would love a disaster off this type to whip up further anti-Russian anger in order to justify further sanctions.
As such I think that it is equally likely that the Kiev government has conspired with those European nations to shoot-down this aircraft in order to galvanise further action against Russia. This was of course immediately denied by President Poroshenko but given the number of defections and battlefield seizures I suspect that the Ukrainian military is unable to account for where all its weapons are let alone whether they've been used or not.
19:00 on 17/7/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 22:50 on 17/7/14 (UK date) to add;
It has now been confirmed that MH17 was flying 1000ft above air-space that had been closed by Ukrainian air traffic control since Monday (14/7/14) due to the threat of anti-aircraft fire. To put that in perspective if two civilian aircraft fly within 1000ft (vertical) of each other the incident is investigated by air-traffic control as a potentially dangerous incident. As such is appears as though MH17's route had been chosen specifically so it could easily be mistaken for a military aircraft by inexperienced anti-Kiev rebels.
The UK have called for an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to discuss the incident. I support that call in so far as I think this needs to be a UN led investigation. After all there can be no suggestion that the Ukrainians, the Dutch or the Malaysians can conduct this investigation particularly considering Malaysia's record on the MH370 investigation.
On a related note today has also seen a train crash in France in which at least 25 people have been injured. This seems to be a direct reference to Tuesday's (15/7/14) derailment on the Moscow Metro system in which 21 people were killed. This incident has been blamed on a "power surge" close to Slaviansky Boulevard station and led to a dramatic rescue operation to reach the dead and injured. This was quite clearly a reference to the surge in violence around Slaviansk in the Donbass region of Ukraine and how Russia is trying to rescue the situation and make the area safe. A dramatic incident in which the lives of numerous civilian lives were put at risk was a Russian attempt to speak in the western style in the hope western nations would understand. Whether they understood or not I can't tell you but the EU and the US decided to press ahead with sanctions anyway. That should hardly come as a surprise the US in particular has no interest in what is actually going on in Ukraine, they're simply out for Russian blood.
Also this evening Israel has launched a ground offensive into Gaza. I will cover this in a lot more detail tomorrow but even on the supposedly biased BBC it has been suggested that Israel has cynically timed this in the hope that the MH17 crash will leave the World distracted. As such I should point out that I was aware that this was a possibility from the moment that I woke up - long before the MH17 crash. What seems to have forced Israel's hand is an attempt by 13 Hamas militants to enter Israel via tunnel. They were almost immediately killed by Israeli aircraft but their intended destination seems to have been the near-by Sufa kibbutz community where they could they could only be intending to carry out a massacre of civilians. Faced with that type of threat Israel - like any nation - has no option other than to eliminate it.
Edited again at around 10:40 on 18/7/14 (UK date) to add;
It has since emerged that MH17 was Boeing 777 registration 9M-MRO. It made its first flight on 17/7/97 and as we all know it made its last flight on 17/7/14. Ever since 9/11 this sort of thing - particularly the recurring use of the number 7 - has been fuel for conspiracy theorists. That seems exactly the reason why this particular aircraft was chosen for this particular mission. By spawning dozens of lunatic conspiracy theories the idea is to discredit anyone who is going to challenge the script that this was an atrocity carried out by the evil Russians who need to be punished.
The flights passenger manifest is also revealing some interesting details. Two of the British passengers have been confirmed as Newcastle Utd footballs fans who were travelling to watch their teams pre-season tour of New Zealand. This has prompted Newcastle and Netherlands goal keeper Tim Krul to pay tribute bringing his controversial exploits at the recent World Cup into play. Also aboard was Joep Lange a former head of the International AIDS Society (IAS) who was travelling to the annual HIV/AIDS Summit in Australia which obviously brings in the issue of HIV/AIDS. Due to her 2012 "777" Tour the 777 aircraft is also synonymous with the pop-star Rihanna.
So were if you were to create a tense an complex diplomatic discussion about the incident you couldn't have chosen a better cast of characters.
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