MH17: The Un-Asked Question.

We are now entering our fourth day of relentless coverage of the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine on Thursday (17/7/14). Amid the wild accusations, inflammatory rhetoric and the almost deafening drum beat of war there is one vital question that everyone seems almost afraid to ask - What was MH17 doing when it crashed?

According to data provided by Ukrainian Air Traffic Control at the time it crashed MH17 had veered some 300 miles (480km) off its intended course putting it substantially to the north of the flightpath normally used by aircraft travelling between the Netherlands and Malaysia. MH17 had also descended 5000ft (152m) below the usual cruising altitude of 38,000ft (1158m) to an altitude of just 33,000ft (1005m). This unexplained change in course put MH17 in a section of air-space that was closed below 32,000ft (975m) as it was combat zone where anti-aircraft fire was to be expected and all aircraft were presumed to be military. Normally anything less then 1000ft (30.5m) of vertical separation is considered dangerous because it is so difficult to accurately gauge distance using radar. As a result there seems to be a very strong case indicating that MH17 was being operated negligently at the time it crashed.

The other big thing that has bothered me about the coverage of the incident is that through listening the the proclamations of the British, Dutch and US government's you would get the impression that Russia is obstructing the investigation into the crash. In circumstances such as these the responsibility to investigate air-crashes falls to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which is a branch of the United Nations. As far as I can tell no-one has instructed the ICAO to open an investigation. As a result no investigation has been opened and no investigation team has been assembled let alone dispatched anywhere. With no investigation taking place it is simply impossible for Russia or anyone else to obstruct it.

What has happened on the ground is that representatives of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have been dispatched to the crash site. A quasi-military organisation the OSCE's remit is conflict prevention, arms control, press freedom and election monitoring. It has no remit to, capacity for or experience in air-crash investigation. Ever since OSCE monitors tried to force their way into Crimea in March 2014 without permission they have been viewed as having a clear pro-junta bias and as a result there have been numerous occasions where OSCE monitors have been detained by anti-Kiev rebels. As such the only possible explanation I can think of for sending OSCE monitors to the MH17 crash site is to provoke a confrontation in the hope of delaying the opening of an investigation into the crash.

Provocation aside a reason why the ICAO have not yet been instructed to carry out an investigation into the MH17 crash is that ICAO investigations tend to focus on establishing facts and improving procedures to avoid incidents being repeated rather then assigning blame and calling for vengeance. For example following the ICAO investigation into the 1973 shooting down of Libyan Arab Airlines flight LN114 no further action was taken against Israel because due to a navigation error the aircraft had strayed into a combat zone. Although it was hampered by both the US and the Soviet's refusing to hand over relevant information the ICAO investigation into the 1983 shooting down of Korean Airlines flight KAL007 found that the main contributing factor to the crash was a "lack of situational awareness and flight deck coordination" by the crew which caused the aircraft to stray into restricted air-space. The aircraft manufacturer and operator were then ordered to re-design the flight controls to prevent the mistake being repeated.

While I'm on the subject of air-crash investigations I should point out that Ukraine actually has a particularly bad record in this area. In October 2001 they shot down Siberian Airlines flight 1812 on route from Israel to Russia killing all 78 people on board. The Ukrainians denied that they were responsible for two full years until they finally forced to admit that they had shot it down with an anti-aircraft missile.

12:40 on 20/7/14 (UK date).