Bowe Bergdahl Released.

On Saturday (31/5/14) US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl was released after being held captive by the Taliban in Afghanistan since 2009. Up to now I've avoided commenting on this because it struck me primarily as a good news story about someone who has been held prisoner for a long time finally getting to return home. I of course tend to specialise in bad news.

However in terms of the wider political implications of the release the first thing it does is highlight the US' decreasing importance within Afghan politics. Although they eventually traded him for five prisoners from Guantanamo Bay Bergdahl's main value to the Taliban was that it forced the US to talk to them - even indirectly - about his fate and those discussions could be used as metaphors for other aspects of the US' role in Afghanistan. With the US removing most of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and all but a small Embassy guard expected to be gone by the end of 2015 the Taliban have clearly decided that the US is no longer a power broker within Afghanistan meaning they have little need to continue talking to them.

The release also highlights the US' growing dependency on the Gulf Monarchies in its dealing with Afghanistan and the wider Arab world because Qatar seems to have been the driving force behind Bergdahl's release. For example they passed on the message that there was an imminent threat to Bergdahl's health and safety that forced the US to act when it did. The US has of course acted some four days before the next round of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) begin in Bonn, Germany on Wednesday (4/6/14) which the Qataris are not keen on.

The US also acted on the day of my home town Croydon's "Parade of Nations" Carnival. Officially this is a "community carnival celebrating Croydon's cultural diversity" but in reality involves a small parade and a large spike in crime. Almost exactly on schedule that evening two young men attempting to burgle one of the houses next to mine but were disturbed and chased off. This of course increases the concerns about my health and safety which seem to increase to almost hysterical proportions every time there is a big UNFCCC meeting.

Although generally just reflecting the simple facts of what's going on most aspects of the Bergdahl story are likely to have a negative impact on the UNFCCC meeting. For example all this stuff about him having trouble speaking English after not having spoken it for the past 5 years and his need to be rehabilitated could be interpreted as reference to long running dispute I've been having with elements such as the Gulf Monarchies over things like climate change. Essentially their position is because I disagree with them so fundamentally there must be something wrong with me because they are appointed by God and therefore infallible.

All the stuff about Bergdahl passing all medical tests with flying colours but still being prevented from talking to his family could be interpreted as a reference to why Rihanna and I still haven't met up or spoken in person. Essentially Rihanna's handlers argument has been that if we were to meet up I would immediately infect her with some disease although at this point that 'disease' appears to be rational thought.

As the story has developed people have also begun to claim that rather then being an all American hero Bergdahl is in fact a coward and a deserter whose selfish actions endangered the lives of his fellow Americans. This could be interpreted as reference to Chris Brown, Drake or any number of people who have been running the Rihanna operation and insist on continuing it.

The disruption caused by the Bergdahl's story of course comes on top of what the US already had planned to disrupt the UNFCCC meeting. Essentially this focused on continuing the Rihanna operation. So today Chris Brown has been released from prison less then 4 months into a 12 month sentence which primarily seems like an attempt to irritate me. Later today Rihanna will controversially receive an Icon award from the American fashion industry. On Wednesday Rihanna will travel to Paris, France which along with Milan, Italy is one of the world fashion capitals where we are supposed to be looking intently for any European backlash against the US' operation and Rihanna in particular. So while the Rihanna operation was foolish to begin with the addition of the Bergdahl story is likely to make the US seem very unpopular at the Bonn meeting - not least because it makes the US appear subservient to Qatar rather than a nation able to offer leadership on what is an important global issue.

US President Obama has tried to counter-act this by using this week to announce plans to regulate carbon emissions from US power stations for the first time. The 645 page document detailing this plan was only released in the past hour or so but I already get the impression the fine detail is going to be argued about within US Courts for years to come. The reason for that is Obama appears to be attempting to use legislation intended to regulate black carbon (essentially soot) emissions to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. The main positive aspect of the proposal is that forces states to draw up action plans to reduce their greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions which is very much keeping with the Bonn meeting which is trying to get nations to draw up similar action plans.

The main problem with the proposal is that while desert states such Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona should take a very serious look at solar power for a host of reasons it seems mainly focused on getting states to switch from coal to natural gas to meet emissions targets. This is something the UK tried for around a decade before rejecting because it made them too dependent on natural gas exporters such as Qatar driving the UK's current obsession with hydraulic fracturing or "Fracking."  

So rather then helping to portraying the US as a world leader on climate change issues Obama's proposal is likely to increase concerns about the US ability to play a role in an future agreement by highlighting that it is still clinging to outdated thinking that is likely to leave it less likely to reduce its ability to take effective action in the future.

15:15 on 2/6/14 (UK date).