Last night (7/8/11 - 8/8/11) there was more trouble in London with light rioting, looting and buildings being set on fire in; Enfeild, Ponders End, Chingford Mount, Walthamstow, Waltham Forest, Islington, Oxford Circus and Brixton. Although a significant part of the trouble was poor people taking the opportunity to take things from shops they'd never be able to afford otherwise tensions and the number of disturbances increase significantly after an article appeared on the website of the Guardian newspaper at 21:30. This story was featured on the front page of today's newspaper, repeated by other newspapers, featured on the TV news channels and circulated on social networking sites.
The original violence in Tottenham on Saturday (6/8/11) stemmed from the shooting by police of a local man named Mark Duggan. The police's version of events is that as they surrounded Mr Duggan to arrest him he opened fire on them with one of his bullets becoming lodged in a police officers radio/bulletproof vest. They are also many different versions of what happened circulating with many getting more elaborate and dramatic as they get passed around. The most believable one though is that as the police surrounded Mr Duggan one of the officers accidentally fired their weapon hitting the other and causing another to shoot and kill Mr Duggan.
Citing an unnamed source the Guardian reported that the bullet that had been lodged in the police radio was a police issue bullet suggesting that the police were lying about what happened. The only problem is that they can't tell it was a police issue bullet. They can tell that it was a 9mm bullet which the police do use. However 9mm bullets are the standard NATO round for pistols and sub-machine guns and therefore probably the most widely used type of bullet in the world. They're also the type of bullet most easily available on the London black market because they can also be used in guns chambered to use 8mm and 10mm bullets. So unless you definitively know that Mark Duggan's gun didn't also use 9mm bullets or which gun this particular bullet was fired from this little bit of information is next to useless.
I'm not saying the police are telling the truth and I'm not saying that the police are lying. I'm just saying that on it's own this bit of information doesn't prove or disprove either account. So by publishing it the Guardian or more likely their police source were only trying to provoke more trouble.
Monday, 8 August 2011
Sunday, 7 August 2011
The USA's Credit Rating Downgrade.
After I went to bed on Friday (5/8/11) night it was announced that the credit rating agency Standard & Poor (S&P) had downgraded America's credit rating AAA- to AA+. This means that America has moved from having the top level credit rating to one level below but it is more likely that it will move back up the scale rather then fall further down. This has been done because the analysts at S&P think that the Budget Control Act 2011 will push the US economy back into recession making it more difficult for the country to pay it's debts.
Although serious this is not as dramatic as it first sounds. There are actually three accepted credit rating agencies in the industry; S&P, Moody's and Fitch and S&P have always been seen as the most provocative. If Moody's and Fitch don't follow S&P's lead then very little will happen and S&P will probably put America back on AAA- after a short while. Even if Moody's and Fitch also downgrade the US credit rating then it won't necessarily mean that the cost of America's borrowing will suddenly shoot up because credit ratings are only non-binding guides and lenders consider lots of other factors before making lending decisions like setting bond yields (interest rates). For example China only started buying up Greek debt once everyone knew it was junk and there was no credit rating downgrade before the interest rates on Spanish and Italian debt was increased.
Elsewhere Eurozone leaders have this evening (7/8/11) being holding a telephone summit to discuss the current crisis over Spanish and Italian debt. In Enfeild, north London some teenagers have been throwing some stones at the riot police and there have been various unconfirmed reports of rioting at multiple locations in London.
So when they open tomorrow I think the American and European financial markets will be a very stressful place. The Asian markets will also be very stressful and open in a few minutes. The middle eastern and New Zealand markets which are already open have seen loses including the US dollar dropping to it's lowest level on the New Zealand market but they're only really allowed to play with themselves.
Although serious this is not as dramatic as it first sounds. There are actually three accepted credit rating agencies in the industry; S&P, Moody's and Fitch and S&P have always been seen as the most provocative. If Moody's and Fitch don't follow S&P's lead then very little will happen and S&P will probably put America back on AAA- after a short while. Even if Moody's and Fitch also downgrade the US credit rating then it won't necessarily mean that the cost of America's borrowing will suddenly shoot up because credit ratings are only non-binding guides and lenders consider lots of other factors before making lending decisions like setting bond yields (interest rates). For example China only started buying up Greek debt once everyone knew it was junk and there was no credit rating downgrade before the interest rates on Spanish and Italian debt was increased.
Elsewhere Eurozone leaders have this evening (7/8/11) being holding a telephone summit to discuss the current crisis over Spanish and Italian debt. In Enfeild, north London some teenagers have been throwing some stones at the riot police and there have been various unconfirmed reports of rioting at multiple locations in London.
So when they open tomorrow I think the American and European financial markets will be a very stressful place. The Asian markets will also be very stressful and open in a few minutes. The middle eastern and New Zealand markets which are already open have seen loses including the US dollar dropping to it's lowest level on the New Zealand market but they're only really allowed to play with themselves.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 3, Day 1.
It is currently Ramadan. This Islamic festival requires Muslims to pray 7 times a day for 30 days and deprive themselves of food during daylight hours during the same period in order to allow them to reflect on the year that has passed and prepare for the year to come.
In Libya this means that people aren't eating between roughly 04:00 and 23:00 local. Add to that daytime temperatures of between 40c and 50c and it's no way to fight a war. So Libyan government forces and the rebels have pretty much stopped fighting each other as they observe an unofficial and largely unspoken ceasefire.
NATO however are not observing that ceasefire and continue to bomb ground targets. On Friday (5/8/11) NATO claimed that one of these bomb attacks killed Muammer Qaddafi's eldest son Khamis al-Qaddafi who is also the military commander of the Libyan army's 32nd Armoured Brigade. This is actually the second time that NATO have tried to encourage the rebels to fight by claiming to have killed Khamis al-Qaddafi so you'll excuse me if I don't exactly rush to believe them.
In Libya this means that people aren't eating between roughly 04:00 and 23:00 local. Add to that daytime temperatures of between 40c and 50c and it's no way to fight a war. So Libyan government forces and the rebels have pretty much stopped fighting each other as they observe an unofficial and largely unspoken ceasefire.
NATO however are not observing that ceasefire and continue to bomb ground targets. On Friday (5/8/11) NATO claimed that one of these bomb attacks killed Muammer Qaddafi's eldest son Khamis al-Qaddafi who is also the military commander of the Libyan army's 32nd Armoured Brigade. This is actually the second time that NATO have tried to encourage the rebels to fight by claiming to have killed Khamis al-Qaddafi so you'll excuse me if I don't exactly rush to believe them.
Tottenham Riot.
The events in Tottenham, London last night (6/8/11 -7/8/11) were a large scale riot. The footage I saw when I got home around midnight was from the small area of Tottenham High Road that the police had re-gained control of allowing journalists to operate.
Events really began on Thursday (4/8/11) evening when police shot and killed a 29 year old black man on Tottenham High Road. In the official version of events the police controversially described the dead man, Mark Duggan as a "gangster" and said he opened fire on an armed police unit as they stopped a taxi he was travelling in. The police officers then returned fire killing Mr Duggan. Obviously the various accounts of the incident that are circulating amongst the local community are very different from the police's version of events. This latest incident comes on the back of an increasing number of young black men who have died whilst in contact with the police. These include the highly suspicious incident in Birmingham in May when Demetre Fraser apparently committed suicide by jumping from the balcony of an apartment block whilst two police officers were in his apartment and a man was heard shouting "They're trying to kill me!" The Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) saw no reason to investigate further.
Then on Friday (5/8/11) one of the men jailed for causing or allowing the death of Baby P in the London Borough Haringey was released from prison early amid widespread publicity. Tottenham is in the London Borough of Haringey and both the local police and the local council are seen as complicit in both the Baby P murder and allowing Jason Owens - a hardcore racist - to get away with it.
On Saturday (6/8/11) a so far unidentified and previously unheard of group held a "We Want Answers" demonstration outside Tottenham police station at around 17:00 calling for an explanation of the Duggan shooting. The police responded to this demonstration by more or less ignoring it. No-one came to speak to the crowd and the police pretty much just hid inside the station behind locked doors and closed windows. As the demonstration was breaking up around 19:00 there were a series of pre-planned petrol bomb attacks against two police cars and some shops. When the emergency services (Fire/Ambulance) turned up to deal with these incidents they came under attack from a crowd armed with bricks, fireworks and more petrol bombs. This forced the police to send in teams of officers in full riot gear (long shields etc) to protect the emergency crews. This led to the situation developing into a full scale riot with 49 fires started, shops looted, over 40 people arrested, 26 police officers injured (2 seriously) and they're still searching the burnt out buildings to see if there are dead bodies that need to be recovered.
So the area of London which saw the 1985 Broadwater Farm riots in which PC Keith Blakelock was killed and is also home to a large Jewish community saw massive rioting on the very same day I was uncontactable because I was off doing something controversial that could have ended in disaster. Personally that sounds very suspicious to me. I bet the drugs market in Tottenham shares and importer with the drugs market in Croydon.
Events really began on Thursday (4/8/11) evening when police shot and killed a 29 year old black man on Tottenham High Road. In the official version of events the police controversially described the dead man, Mark Duggan as a "gangster" and said he opened fire on an armed police unit as they stopped a taxi he was travelling in. The police officers then returned fire killing Mr Duggan. Obviously the various accounts of the incident that are circulating amongst the local community are very different from the police's version of events. This latest incident comes on the back of an increasing number of young black men who have died whilst in contact with the police. These include the highly suspicious incident in Birmingham in May when Demetre Fraser apparently committed suicide by jumping from the balcony of an apartment block whilst two police officers were in his apartment and a man was heard shouting "They're trying to kill me!" The Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) saw no reason to investigate further.
Then on Friday (5/8/11) one of the men jailed for causing or allowing the death of Baby P in the London Borough Haringey was released from prison early amid widespread publicity. Tottenham is in the London Borough of Haringey and both the local police and the local council are seen as complicit in both the Baby P murder and allowing Jason Owens - a hardcore racist - to get away with it.
On Saturday (6/8/11) a so far unidentified and previously unheard of group held a "We Want Answers" demonstration outside Tottenham police station at around 17:00 calling for an explanation of the Duggan shooting. The police responded to this demonstration by more or less ignoring it. No-one came to speak to the crowd and the police pretty much just hid inside the station behind locked doors and closed windows. As the demonstration was breaking up around 19:00 there were a series of pre-planned petrol bomb attacks against two police cars and some shops. When the emergency services (Fire/Ambulance) turned up to deal with these incidents they came under attack from a crowd armed with bricks, fireworks and more petrol bombs. This forced the police to send in teams of officers in full riot gear (long shields etc) to protect the emergency crews. This led to the situation developing into a full scale riot with 49 fires started, shops looted, over 40 people arrested, 26 police officers injured (2 seriously) and they're still searching the burnt out buildings to see if there are dead bodies that need to be recovered.
So the area of London which saw the 1985 Broadwater Farm riots in which PC Keith Blakelock was killed and is also home to a large Jewish community saw massive rioting on the very same day I was uncontactable because I was off doing something controversial that could have ended in disaster. Personally that sounds very suspicious to me. I bet the drugs market in Tottenham shares and importer with the drugs market in Croydon.
Saturday, 6 August 2011
I'm Not Doing That Again in a Hurry.
I've just got back from my mothers gay wedding/civil partnership thing and apart from the abject terror of the ceremony itself it was actually a very pleasant day. However while I was out;
The credit rating agency Standard & Poor downgraded America's credit rating from AAA- to AA+.
An American helicopter crashed in Afghanistan killing 30 apparently including members of the SEAL team that killed Osama bin Laden.
There's been a major disturbance in the Tottenham area of London. This follows the shooting on Thursday (4/8/11) of a black man by the police. Although this doesn't appear to be an actual riot two police cars, a bus and some shops have all been set on fire. This does rather explain why there were lots of police about on my trip up to east London but absolutely none about on my way back.
The credit rating agency Standard & Poor downgraded America's credit rating from AAA- to AA+.
An American helicopter crashed in Afghanistan killing 30 apparently including members of the SEAL team that killed Osama bin Laden.
There's been a major disturbance in the Tottenham area of London. This follows the shooting on Thursday (4/8/11) of a black man by the police. Although this doesn't appear to be an actual riot two police cars, a bus and some shops have all been set on fire. This does rather explain why there were lots of police about on my trip up to east London but absolutely none about on my way back.
Friday, 5 August 2011
Blood on the Trading Floor.
Yesterday (4/8/11) stock market's worldwide lost an estimated total of US$3 trillion. This is the worst single day losses since September 2008 which is more commonly known as the start of the credit crunch or the beginning of "The Great Recession." There are two main reasons for this;
The US Debt Deal: Although any deal to raise the American debt ceiling is better then no deal a lot of people were hoping for a more balanced deal that saw the increase in borrowing off-set by both cuts to spending and an increase in tax revenue. Instead what they got was a plan that hopes to do it all through spending cuts. By taking this much money (US$900bn) out of the US economy right now this creates the risk that it will choke off America's economic recovery and push America back into recession. As America is the world's largest economy and therefore the market everyone else relies upon to buy their exports an American recession will most probably lead to a world recession. Today's job creation figures from the month before the Budget Control Act 2011 was passed were not great.
However it is still far too early to tell what effect the US debt deal (I've not read it yet) will have so the main thing causing the most concern to the world's financial markets is;
The Eurozone: Specifically Spain and Italy.
Since May 2011 Spain has seen the growth of the semi-government sponsored protest movement against spending cuts and austerity measures known as "The Indignants." In the business this has been seen as a sign that the Spanish government intends to either refuse to pay it's debts or beg for a German bailout that it won't get. If either of these things happen then a lot of banks, pension funds and people will lose a lot of money.
Since 2008 Italy has been run by a buffoon named Silvio Berlusconi. Under his tenure Berlusconi has been more concerned with having sex with underage prostitutes and doing dodgy business deals then running the country. As a result the Italian economy has been all but annihilated and the country has the highest levels of debt in the entire Eurozone. So there are very serious concerns that unless Berlusconi resigns soon Italy will collapse and this will have a bigger effect then the Greek collapse, the Irish collapse and the Portuguese collapse combined. Unfortunately Berlusconi is already playing the "They're all out to get me" card.
These concerns have caused the holders of Spanish and Italian debt to increase the interest rate on those loans in order to recover as much of their money as possible. In turn this has increased fears that Spain and Italy will default and forced the markets to look at the institutions that will have to deal with this crisis. They've found an European Union/Commission (EU/EC) that is far too busy arguing about it's name to respond to any crisis. They've also found and IMF which is fully in the pocket of the French government which is up to it's eyeballs in bad Eurozone debt and has so far blocked any rescue package being offered. Finally they found a European Central Bank (ECB) that is adament in it's refusal to accept that it is the responsability of a central bank to back it's currency.
As for my role in all of this it's actually been pretty minimal. It's really just that the people who've been saying that this will all be fine are the same people who've been saying that I'll be losing by now. As that's not happening their credibility is wearing about as thin a William Hague's hair.
Anyway the good news is that it's now the weekend and things seem to have calmed down a bit. So it looks like what's currently going on is a very large market correction rather then a full scale meltdown.
The US Debt Deal: Although any deal to raise the American debt ceiling is better then no deal a lot of people were hoping for a more balanced deal that saw the increase in borrowing off-set by both cuts to spending and an increase in tax revenue. Instead what they got was a plan that hopes to do it all through spending cuts. By taking this much money (US$900bn) out of the US economy right now this creates the risk that it will choke off America's economic recovery and push America back into recession. As America is the world's largest economy and therefore the market everyone else relies upon to buy their exports an American recession will most probably lead to a world recession. Today's job creation figures from the month before the Budget Control Act 2011 was passed were not great.
However it is still far too early to tell what effect the US debt deal (I've not read it yet) will have so the main thing causing the most concern to the world's financial markets is;
The Eurozone: Specifically Spain and Italy.
Since May 2011 Spain has seen the growth of the semi-government sponsored protest movement against spending cuts and austerity measures known as "The Indignants." In the business this has been seen as a sign that the Spanish government intends to either refuse to pay it's debts or beg for a German bailout that it won't get. If either of these things happen then a lot of banks, pension funds and people will lose a lot of money.
Since 2008 Italy has been run by a buffoon named Silvio Berlusconi. Under his tenure Berlusconi has been more concerned with having sex with underage prostitutes and doing dodgy business deals then running the country. As a result the Italian economy has been all but annihilated and the country has the highest levels of debt in the entire Eurozone. So there are very serious concerns that unless Berlusconi resigns soon Italy will collapse and this will have a bigger effect then the Greek collapse, the Irish collapse and the Portuguese collapse combined. Unfortunately Berlusconi is already playing the "They're all out to get me" card.
These concerns have caused the holders of Spanish and Italian debt to increase the interest rate on those loans in order to recover as much of their money as possible. In turn this has increased fears that Spain and Italy will default and forced the markets to look at the institutions that will have to deal with this crisis. They've found an European Union/Commission (EU/EC) that is far too busy arguing about it's name to respond to any crisis. They've also found and IMF which is fully in the pocket of the French government which is up to it's eyeballs in bad Eurozone debt and has so far blocked any rescue package being offered. Finally they found a European Central Bank (ECB) that is adament in it's refusal to accept that it is the responsability of a central bank to back it's currency.
As for my role in all of this it's actually been pretty minimal. It's really just that the people who've been saying that this will all be fine are the same people who've been saying that I'll be losing by now. As that's not happening their credibility is wearing about as thin a William Hague's hair.
Anyway the good news is that it's now the weekend and things seem to have calmed down a bit. So it looks like what's currently going on is a very large market correction rather then a full scale meltdown.
The Polar Bear Killing in Norway.
Today (5/8/11) a British school boy named Horatio (like Nelson) Chaplle (like a church) was killed by a polar bear on the Norwegian island of Svalbad in the Artic Circle.
This is clearly as case of a well trained British expedition leader allowing a polar bear to kill one of the children in his care and injure four other. The intention is to open a line of dialogue with Norway to find out what evidence it has of Britain's involvement in the Breivik terrorist attack.
I think that doing it on the two week anniversary of the attacks shows a complete lack of remorse but that's just my opinion and maybe I should keep it to myself.
This is clearly as case of a well trained British expedition leader allowing a polar bear to kill one of the children in his care and injure four other. The intention is to open a line of dialogue with Norway to find out what evidence it has of Britain's involvement in the Breivik terrorist attack.
I think that doing it on the two week anniversary of the attacks shows a complete lack of remorse but that's just my opinion and maybe I should keep it to myself.
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