Operation Featherweight: Month 54, Week 2, Day 1.

Really a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-featherweight-month-54-week-1_6.html

In that post I explained why I would not have planned to launch the SDF's Hajin Pocket operation in September as CJTFOIR insisted.

My main concern is that autumn gives way to winter the weather worsens. Inhibiting CJTFOIR aircraft's ability to defend against one of ISIL's main weapons. The S-VBIED. Therefore I would have left ISIL contained within the Hajin Pocket until the spring of 2019.

The only way I would contemplate launching the operation sooner than that is if the SDF were widely equipped with guided anti-tank weapons. Such as the MILAN or BGM-TOW systems. These can be used by infantry troops on the ground against S-VBIED's. Reducing the reliance on CJTFOIR airstrikes.

Even then I would still wait until the situation in the Sudetenland is resolved. That would likely see Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan placed under extreme pressure as the Turkish troops stationed there were forced to stand back or attack Syrian and Russian forces directly. Under that pressure Erdogan is extremely likely to lash out against the SDF and CJTFOIR.

Providing an update on the Sudetenland is really my next task. It is a complicated situation.

For example of September 17th (17/9/18) a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft was shot down during an Israeli airstrike on the edges of the Sudetenland. This prompted Russia to supply Syria with the more advanced S-300 air defence system. To deter future Israeli attacks. Since then Israel has rumoured that it has conducted further operations within Syria. However there have been no further airstrikes.

If this is true than Israel's actions represent only a fraction of the murky, hush-hush things going on the in Sudetenland. Given the international community's concern over a militarily impossible all out assault on the Sudetenland I feel I'm the only westerner engaging with this on a strategic level.

As it turns out the international community has moved to protect Erdogan from any pressure within the Sudetenland.

This effort has been led by France. They deployed their missile Frigate Auvergne to the Mediterranean. The threat being that this would be used to support Turkey in any direct conflict with Syrian and Russian forces.

In response to this pressure Russia and Syria were forced to agree a De-Militarised Zone (DMZ) plan for the Sudetenland. This was agreed on September 17th (17/9/18) and came into effect on October 10th (10/10/18). Since then it has proved to be an absolute joke.

The first conceit of the DMZ plan is it requires you to pretend that the Sudetenland isn't under the occupation of the Al Qaeda led, ISIL protecting Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). Instead you are forced to pretend there are two rival forces.

The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Front for the Liberation of the Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Surriya (JTS). You are also required to pretend that HTS have absolutely nothing to do with Al Qaeda and JTS are just an oppressed group of moderates simply yearning for democratic change.

The DMZ plan requires HTS to withdraw entirely from the designated zone. Something which has simply not happened.

JTS are allowed to remain within the designated zone but are required to withdraw their heavy weapons. This has largely happened. However it has not stopped JTS using those heavy weapons from outside of the designated zone. Particularly against the civilian population in Aleppo City.

In short the DMZ plan has done nothing other than protect Turkish and Al Qaeda forces as they continue to occupy Syrian territory and launch attacks against Syrian civilians.

Alongside the DMZ plan Erdogan has been pushing his wild conspiracy theory that Saudi Arabia murdered Muslim Brotherhood extremist Jamal Khashoggi. With that Erdogan has been hoping to achieve a number of things.

At the very least he hopes to secure a large financial payment from Saudi Arabia. To prop up Turkey's failing economy.

Ideally Erdogan would like to whip up international pressure to see Saudi Arabia lift the blockade it has placed on Qatar and by extension Turkey. A blockade imposed not least due to Qatar and Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood. When we talk about the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam in Syria it is simply a polite way of saying; "Qatar."

By attempting to link Saudi Arabia with US President Trump Erdogan also had dreams of sweeping the Democrats back into power at the November 6th (6/11/18) US midterm elections. So Erdogan could once again enjoy the protection afforded to him under the Democrat Party of former US President Barack Obama.

Despite Erdogan's longstanding reputation for just completely making things up many in the west simply eaten up his Khashoggi story with a spoon. In order to relieve the pressure ahead of the midterms the US forced Saudi Arabia to falsely admit to the killing on October 20th (20/10/18).

Since then Saudi Arabia has moved to punish the US. By withdrawing from an agreement which saw US conduct mid-flight refuelling of Saudi aircraft as they flew missions against Yemen. This was done to reduce US influence over the Yemen conflict and give Saudi Arabia much more operational autonomy.

It seems though there is no fact western journalists will not ignore or simply change in an effort to publish stories they hope will damage US President Trump.

One thing that Erdogan has certainly achieved through his Khashoggi claims is to make himself the centre of attention. On October 27th (27/10/18) he was able to force France, Germany and Russia to attend a summit on Syria in Istanbul, Turkey. He felt powerful enough to exclude the US, the UK and other members of CJTFOIR from this summit.

The summit turned out to be an exercise in the nations attending reaffirming their commitment to protect Erdogan's annexation of Syria.

It went on to discuss the mechanics of using that annexation to force Syria to amend its constitution to ensure the complete equality for those occupying the Sudetenland. Exactly as Czechoslovakia was forced to amend its constitution to include the Nazi mandated Karlsbader Programm in 1938.

This summit was the result of the bizarre situation European politics finds itself in. Russia can't stand up to Erdogan because France keeps threatening to attack Russia. Meanwhile France can't stand up to Erdogan because French banks are so heavily exposed to Turkey's failing economy.

Rather than being a summit of powerful leaders it seems to be more of a coalition of failure. The following day Germany's Head of Government Angela Merkel handed in her notice to announce her retirement from politics.

Making Erdogan feel as though he is the centre of the universe has certainly stopped him lashing out against the SDF and CJTFOIR because he feels under pressure. Erdogan is now lashing out against the SDF and CJTFOIR because he has been allowed to feel too comfortable in his position.

The main way in which Erdogan has been lashing out in Shangri-La is through the Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) terror group.

Harakat al-Qiyam began life as the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar. A faction of the Southern Front coalition trained by CJTFOIR at the Bobby Sands base. Following the encirclement of the Bobby Sands base in June 2017 they were transferred by CJTFOIR to Shangri-La. On the understanding they would join the SDF.

Upon arrival the Army of Revolutionaries changed their name to the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam and stated carrying out attacks against the SDF. On behalf of the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) which funds, arms and directs their activities.

Although they have improved slightly HAQ have this habit of putting out statements claiming their attacks in Arabic. However if you try to translate these statements into English by putting them straight into translation software such as Google Translate you end up with nonsense.

Instead what you first have to do is use software to translate the Arabic statements into Turkish. You then translate the Turkish statement into English. The people writing HAQ's statements don't speak Arabic. They speak Turkish and use computer software to translate the statements into Arabic.

In the period between the DMZ agreement on September 17th (17/9/18) and the withdrawal of the SDF from the Hajin Pocket on October 27th (27/10/18) Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) carried 22 attacks against in Shangri-La. Resulting in at least 34 casualties. Both amongst the SDF and civilians.

I won't bore you with a comprehensive list of dates and locations you've never heard of.

However these attacks by HAQ have increased since the first round of sandstorms set back SDF operations in the Hajin Pocket on October 10th (10/10/18). They also appear to be coordinated with and almost indistinguishable from ISIL attacks.

For example on October 18th (18/10/18) sandstorms again blew up across Shangri-La.

Alongside using this to launch conventional S-VBIED attacks against the SDF in the Hajin Pocket ISIL also conduct a behind-the-lines attack against the Saheel and Omar Oil and Gas Fields. As HAQ conducted IED attacks against the SDF in Raqqa City and the village of Basira. Killing eight members of the SDF.

The following day, on October 19th (19/10/18) ISIL conducted sniper attacks against the SDF in the villages of Jadid Akidat and Jadid Baqqara. Killing a member of the SDF in each location.

Meanwhile HAQ gunmen attacked an SDF checkpoint without casualties in Abu Hardub. They also conducted an IED attack which killed one member of the SDF in Raqqa City. HAQ also conducted an IED attack against the offices of the Kurdish Red Crescent aid group in Hasakah City.

The SDF's withdrawal from the Hajin Pocket on October 27th (27/10/18) was brought about by a sustained ISIL attack on the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC) element of the coalition. This resulted in many deaths and casualties. Effectively wiping the DEZ-MC as a fighting force.

As a result Arab tribes which make up much of the DEZ-MC were desperate to launch a fresh attack on ISIL to seek vengeance. While the wider SDF wanted to re-group and draw up a more effective plan. This divergence of opinion caused a lot of tension within the SDF coalition.

This tension led to concerns that the Arab tribes would break away from the SDF. There was particular concern about the Shaitat Tribe. They have always been traditionally loyal to the Syrian government and it wouldn't take much for them to once again side with the Syrian government. Taking with them a huge chunk of the territory of Shangri-La.

So on November 2nd (2/11/18) HAQ assassinated Sheikh Bashir Faysal al-Huwaidi. The leader of the al-Afadilah Tribe which is closely allied with the SDF. As both a warning to the other Arab tribes and in an effort to increase tensions between the SDF and the Arab tribes.

Aside from the covert action of HAQ/MIT Erdogan has grown in confidence to the point where he feels he can both threaten and even conduct overt military action against the SDF and CJTFOIR.

On October 12th (12/10/18) Erdogan gave a speech in which he declared the regular Turkish military (TSK) would soon sweep across the Euphrates from Garvaghy Road to attack Shangri-La. Rooting out what he called the SDF's "terror nests." Drawing his confidence from the people who believe his Khashoggi claims Erdogan declared that the TSK would be joined in this operation by the Army of Islam.

On October 28th (28/10/18) Erdogan celebrated the previous day's (27/10/18) Istanbul summit.

The TSK shelled the Shangri-La village of Zur Maghar from Jarablus in Garvaghy Road. Zur Maghar sits close to the city of Kobane where the SDF mounted their epic resistance against ISIL in 2014/15. Around 30km (20 miles) east of the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Shangri-La.

On October 30th (30/10/18) the TSK shelled the Shangri-La villages around Tel Abyad/Gire Spi from within Turkey. Tel Abyad/Gire Spi sits along Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey around 220km (130 miles) east of the boundary with Garvaghy Road. Erdogan has long threatened to invade via Tel Abyad/Gire Spi in order to effectively split Shangri-La in half.

On November 1st (1/11/18) TSK snipers opened fire on civilians in Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. Shooting one 10 year old girl in the head, killing her.

These Turkish attacks forced the SDF to abandon any plans to launch a fresh operation against ISIL in the Hajin Pocket. Instead they have had to redeploy their forces to defend Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with Garvaghy Road. While increasing security measures across the area to counter the HAQ/MIT threat.

The US has responded to this Turkish aggression by appeasing Erdogan. On October 20th (20/10/18) it pledged that joint US/TSK patrols would begin on the boundary between Shangri-La in the; "coming days."

These joint patrols is something Turkey has demanded every since then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Turkey on February 15th 2018 (15/2/18). The meeting intended to bring an end to Erdogan's Operation: Olive Branch in Afrin Canton was famously overshadowed by the February 14th (14/2/18) mass shooting at a school in Parkland, Florida.

The US/TSK joint patrols actually began on November 8th (8/11/18). Just as America was reeling from the mass shooting at the Borderline Bar in Thousand Oaks, California. Which occurred at around lunchtime in the Middle-East.

The US has also made some attempt to deter Erdogan's aggression. US Special Operation Forces (SOF) and conventional forces like Marines have been conducting joint patrols mixed in the SDF. Both along Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with Garvaghy Road.

The calculation being that Erdogan would not risk killing American troops by continuing the TSK attacks on the SDF.

That calculation is skewed by the fact that HAQ/MIT have not only attacked but killed both US and British troops. Specifically in Manbij on March 30th (30/3/18). There was no consequence for either Turkey nor Erdogan.

As it always seems to do the problem has arrived in the form of French President Emmanuel Macron.

I will explain further after dinner.

18:10 on 12/11/18 (UK date).

Edited at around 20:00 on 12/11/18 (UK date) to add;

Sunday November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) saw the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War.

This was marked by events across Europe and World. The main event though saw the leaders of 70 nations gather in France.

French President Emmanuel Macron decided not to make this about all those who had been killed in the war. Nor did Macron choose to make it about the immense global, social change triggered by that horrific slaughter.

Instead French President Emmanuel Macron decided to make it all about Emmanuel Macron.

On the Saturday (10/11/18) French police charged three far-right activists for allegedly plotting to assassinate Macron.

As if the threat of one man  travelling to meet two other men whilst in possession of a single pocket knife somehow made Macron some sort of heroic war veteran risking his life on a daily basis. Rather than a soft-handed, sweaty palmed civilian in an empty suit.

On the day of the ceremony a member of the FEMEN group managed to evade French security and run towards the motorcade of US President Trump.

Far from being a feminist group FEMEN is run by men. Ukrainian men who are closely linked to the Nazis who currently run Ukraine. Who are in turn linked to Erdogan through Crimea and Ukraine's ethnically Turkish population.

Macron then gave a speech in which the main theme was that Nationalism is the opposite of Patriotism. A betrayal of Patriotism. A speech clearly intended as an attack on US President Trump who recently described himself as an economic nationalist.

French President Macron hoped that these 69 other world leaders would stay in France to attend a Paris Peace Forum he'd arranged for today (12/11/18). The stated goal of the forum was to prevent future conflict through multilateralism.

US President Trump simply refused the invitation to the Paris Peace Forum. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted the invite but suddenly found a reason to leave. With the exception of Costa Rica's President Carlos Alvarado Quesada I can't think of single World leader who actually attended.

The arrogance French President Macron displayed throughout the weekend was astounding. As was his apparent complete lack of knowledge of Europe's recent history.

Following the mass slaughter of the First World War there was a global movement to embrace multilateralism to avoid future conflict. One of the first acts of this new multilateral world was a Paris Peace Forum.

At that Paris Peace Forum the US President Woodrow Wilson called on European nations not to economically punish the former German Empire and the former Ottoman Empire too harshly for the war. That call was largely rejected. However it did influence the plan for the break up of the Ottoman Empire.

The original plan would have seen the Ottoman Empire broken up into the modern day nations of Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Along with the nation of Kurdistan.

However as not to totally humiliate the founder of modern Turkey the European powers gave Mustafa Kemal Ataturk a veto over the creation of the nation of Kurdistan. The fact Britain had just discovered that oil was very useful and there was a lot of it in the region probably didn't help much either.

From that first Paris Peace Forum was born the League of Nations. A multilateral body which served as a sort of forerunner of the current United Nations.

In 1938 Nazi Germany unilaterally annexed Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland. A gross violation of both international law and the principle of multilateralism.

Unfortunately at the time the World was still emerging from the Great Depression. So European leaders were all too concerned with protecting their own economies and financial institutions to stand up to Hitler's aggression. Eventually Nazi Germany went on to annex almost all of Europe and much of North Africa.

This led to the collapse of the League of Nations and Second World War. The slaughter of 10 million combatants during the First World War was soon dwarfed by the slaughter of 11 million civilians during the Holocaust.

French President Macron's performance this weekend calls to my mind that famous quote of Britain's leader during World War Two, Winston Churchill;

"Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it." 

A quote that was given much prominence during British events to mark the end of the First World War.

While World leaders including Erdogan were gathered in France a much smaller summit was taking place in Shangri-La. Between the SDF, France and the US. The outcome of that summit was twofold.

Firstly, at France's insistence, the joint US/SDF patrols along Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with Garvaghy Road would end. Removing whatever deterrent they provided against further Turkish attacks.

At the same time the SDF are being forced to resume their operation against ISIL in the Hajin Pocket. 

I know for certain that the weather is not going to improve as November gives way to December and December gives way to January. I have certainly not seen any indication of CJTFOIR equipping and training the SDF with the large number of anti-tank missiles they will need to fight S-VBIED's while the weather is bad.

I tempted to think that French President Macron is forcing the SDF into this in the hope that once victory against ISIL is declared public interest in the conflict will wane. Macron will then enjoy more freedom to protect Erdogan as Erdogan protects ISIL and Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland.

Given the startling lack of knowledge of Europe and global political history he's displayed I not sure its even that complicated.

French President Macron seems to be gripped with that terrible affliction which gets a hold of many new heads of government. Particularly the sweaty little boys of the political right. Such as investment banker Macron. 

Upon taking up office immature leaders are so in awe of having an army they immediately look for an excuse to play with that new toy. By sending an army into battle. As if the heroism of those fighting would somehow rub off on the politician.

It is why Britain has the Cenotaph and Remembrance Sunday.

As I've mentioned the SDF have an International Brigade. One of the divisions of that International Brigade is the Bob Crow division. Named after notorious British trade union leader Bob Crow.

In response to Macron's demands I can only recommend the entire SDF does what Bob Crow is famous for.

If CJTFOIR is not prepared to support the SDF then the SDF should not be laying down their lives to defeat ISIL on CJTFOIR's behalf.

21:10 on 12/11/18 (UK date).

The War To End All Wars.

Today, November 11th (11/11/18) marks both Remembrance Sunday and Armistice Day.

It is appropriate these two events fall on the same day. It also marks the 100th Anniversary of the original Armistice Day.

In the spring and summer of 1914 the German Empire, The Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire were all itching to expand their territory. By invading and annexing the territory of their neighbours. Starting with Serbia and the Russian Empire.

On June 28th 1914 (28/6/14) they got the excuse they were looking for.

Serb nationalist Gavrilo Princip assassinated the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. An assassination which was only made possible because Ferdinand's driver had made a wrong turn outside a cafe where Princip had stopped for a sandwich.

This assassination gave the Austro-Hungarian Empire and their allies the German Empire and the Ottoman Turkish Empire the excuse they were looking for to attack Serbia and its ally the Russian Empire.

The German Empire's concern was that if they attacked the Russian Empire to the east then the Russian Empire's ally France would attack the German Empire from the west. So in August 1914 the German Empire launched a pre-emptive attack on France.

This attack plan saw them invade France via Belgium. Bringing Belgium's ally Britain into the war.

At the time these Empires all had colonies across the globe. The fighting quickly spread to them as the war began to rage across both the Middle-East and Africa.

In the Middle-East the British Empire, France and the Russian Empire along with Armenians and Assyrians fought the Ottoman Empire. Across what is modern day, Egypt, Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Across what is modern day Syria, Iraq and Iran. Across the Caucus region which contains modern nations such as Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In Africa the British Empire, the Belgian Empire and the Portuguese Empire fought the German Empire. Across almost all of central and eastern Africa. Essentially from the modern nations of Uganda and Kenya down to modern day South Africa. Including Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

This East African Campaign is often a shamefully overlooked part of what became known as the First World War.

In May 1915 the Imperial German Navy sank passenger liner the RMS Lusitania murdering 128 American citizens. Causing considerable tension between the two nations.

Tensions which were not improved by the German Empire's decision to issue a medal celebrating the sinking of the Lusitania. A medal which depicted evil Americans buying their tickets to death.

In February 1917 a diplomatic cable was intercepted detailing the German Empire's plan to ally with Mexico to invade the US across its southern border. So in June 1917 the US entered the war in Europe.

All these great Empires had all been built at a time when war was a relatively civilised affair.

Armies would meet in tight formations in a field at daybreak. They would then fight until sunset. At which point one side was forced to accept it had lost. Everyone shook hands and went home.

The First World War was the first major conflict fought using the modern machine gun. These could wipe out the hundreds of men in those tight military formations in a matter of seconds.

Within weeks of the German Empire's attack on France in August 1914 all sides realised that the war had been a mistake. However no-one could figure out a way to bring the war to an end.

So they spent the next four years sending the men of these tight military formations to their deaths against enemy machine guns. All for no real territorial gain.

By the end of the conflict 17,000,000 people had been killed across all sides. 10,000,000 combatants and 7,000,000 civilians.

For some context America's 17 year War On Terror is estimated to have killed 500,000 people.

Such was the scale of the slaughter and the contempt the ruling class showed for its subjects that in 1917 the Russian people rose up in revolution and overthrew their Tsar. Bringing an end to the Russian Empire.

Faced with famine in 1918 the German people rose up and overthrew their Kaiser. Bringing an end to the German Empire.

Stripped of its territory across North-Africa, the Middle-East, Europe and the Caucus region the Ottoman Turkish Empire limped on until 1924.

At 02:00 on November 11th 1918 (11/11/18) the Supreme Command of Allied Forces in Europe, French General Ferdinand Koch met with German Finance Minister Matthias Erzberger in a train carriage in the forest of Compiegne, France. At 05:15 Erzberger signed Germany's surrender in an Armistice Agreement.

That Armistice Agreement came into effect nearly six hours later. At the 11th hour of the 11th month, 1918 (11/11/18).

Having declared themselves victors the British Empire held a Victory Parade on July 19th 1919 (19/6/19). Part of the parade route through central London included a wood and plaster sculpture to honour the unknown dead. Those who had died without ever being identified.

In December 1919 this Empty Tomb or; "Cenotaph" was dismantled and placed in a museum. As the British Empire tried to return to business as usual and erase the memory of war.

A nation which had seen an entire generation of young men lost. Either killed, wounded or deeply psychologically scarred were having none of it.

They demanded that the Cenotaph be rebuilt in its original location from 120 tonnes of stone. They also demanded that every year Britain's leaders visit that empty tomb and stand in silence as they think about what they have done.

So at its root Armistice Day, Remembrance Sunday and the Cenotaph are the World's largest and longest running anti-war protest. The hope at the time was that it would mark the war that had ended all war.

Clearly they failed in that goal as 100 years on we still find ourselves fighting wars. For me the past four years have been spent by the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). Back exactly where the Ottoman Turkish Empire was defeated all those years ago.

Particularly in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) and their International Freedom Brigade this leaves me feeling an affinity for those forced to gather at the Cenotaph.

From the comfort and safety of my home I have dozens of times cheered as the SDF and others are sent into battle against ISIL. Knowing full well that not all of those sent into battle will return. They are being sent out to die.

These are the members of the SDF's International Brigade that did not return.

Ashley Johnston; Aged 29, from Australia. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. February 23rd 2015 (23/2/15).

Konstandinos Erik Scurfield; Aged 25, from Britain. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. March 2nd 2015 (2/3/15).

Ivana Hoffman; Aged 19, from Germany. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. March 7th 2015 (7/5/15).
  
Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Iran. Killed by ISIL fire during the Tel Abyad/Gire Spi campaign. May 15th 2015 (15/5/15).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. At time unknown between March 7th 2015 (7/3/15) and May 19th 2015 (19/5/15).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. At time unknown between March 7th 2015 (7/3/15) and May 19th 2015 (19/5/15).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. At time unknown between March 7th 2015 (7/3/15) and May 19th 2015 (19/5/15).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. At time unknown between March 7th 2015 (7/3/15) and May 19th 2015 (19/5/15).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. At time unknown between March 7th 2015 (7/3/15) and May 19th 2015 (19/5/15).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Cizre Campaign. At time unknown between March 7th 2015 (7/3/15) and May 19th 2015 (19/5/15).

Bedrettin Akdeniz; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Tel Abyad/Gire Spi campaign. May 25th 2015 (25/5/15).

Mahir Arpaçay; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Tel Abyad/Gire Spi campaign June 2nd 2015 (2/6/15).

Keith Broomfield; Aged 36, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Tel Abyad/Gire Spi campaign. June 3rd 2015 (3/6/15).

Reece Harding; Aged 23, from Australia. Killed by ISIL fire during the Tel Abyad/Gire Spi campaign. June 27th 2015 (27/6/15).

Kevin Jochim; Aged 21, from Germany. Killed by ISIL fire during the Tel Abyad/Gire Spi campaign. July 6th 2015 (6/7/15).

Aziz Güler; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during defence of Hasakah City. September 21st 2015 (21/9/15).

John Gallagher; Aged 32, from Canada. Killed by ISIL fire during the al-Shadaddi campaign. November 4th 2015 (4/11/15).

Gunter Helsten; Aged 47, from Germany. Killed by ISIL fire during the al-Shadaddi campaign. February 23rd 2016 (23/2/16).

Mario Nunes; Aged 22, from Portugal. Captured and Executed by ISIL near Tell Tamer. May 3rd 2016 (3/5/16).

Jamie Bright; Aged 45, from Australia. Killed by ISIL fire during the al-Shadaddi campaign. May 25th 2016 (25/5/16).

Eylem Ataş; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Manbij. June 28th 2016 (28/6/16).

Levi Shirley; Aged 24, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Manbij. July 14th 2016 (14/7/16).

Martin Gruden; Age unknown, from Slovenia. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Manbij. July 21st 2016 (21/7/16).

Dean Evans; Aged 22, from Britain. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Manbij. July 27th 2016 (27/7/16).

Jordan MacTaggert; Aged 22, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Manbij. August 3rd 2016 (3/8/16).

William Savage; Aged 27, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Manbij. August 10th 2016 (10/8/16).

Amir Qobabi; Age unknown, from Iran. Killed in ISIL IED  attack while on patrol near Kobane. Mid-August 2016.

Micheal Israel; Aged 27, from America. Killed by Turkish Airstrike in Manbij. November 24th 2016 (24/8/16).

Anton Leschek; Age unknown, from Germany. Killed by Turkish Airstrike in Manbij. November 24th 2016 (24/8/16).

Ryan Locke; Aged 20, from Britain. Killed by ISIL fire during first phase of Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. December 21st 2016 (21/12/16).

Nazzareno Tassone; Aged 24, from Canada. Killed by ISIL fire during first phase of Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. December 21st 2016 (21/12/16).

Muzaffer Kandemir; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during second phase of Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. January 7th 2017 (7/1/17).

Paolo Todd; Aged 33, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during second phase of Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. January 15th 2017 (15/1/17).

Albert Harrington; Aged 49, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during second phase of Operation: Wrath of Euphrates. January 18th 2017 (18/1/17).

Ulaş Bayraktaroğlu; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Tabqa. May 10th 2017 (10/5/17).

Ayşe Karacagil; Aged 23, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during Madan campaign. May 29th 2017 (29/5/17).

Hasan Ali; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during Madan campaign. May 29th 2017 (29/5/17).

Robert Grodt; Aged 28, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. July 5th 2017 (5/7/17).

Luke Rutter; Aged 22, from Britain. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. July 5th 2017 (5/7/17).

Nicholas Warden; Aged 29, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. July 5th 2017 (5/7/17).

David Taylor; Aged 26, from America. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. July 16th 2017 (16/7/17).

Nubar Ozanyan; Aged 61, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. August 14th 2017 (14/8/17).

Gökhan Taşyakan; Aged 38, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. Mid-August 2017.

Frederic Demonchaux; Aged 49, from France. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. September 7th 2017 (7/9/17).

Siyabend Nasir; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by ISIL fire during Operation: Cizre Storm. September 16th 2017 (16/9/17).

Mehmet Aksoy; Aged 32, from Britain. Killed by ISIL fire during the Battle of Raqqa City. September 26th 2017 (26/9/17).

Jac Holmes; Aged 24, from Britain. Killed defusing ISIL IED in Raqqa City. October 24th 2017 (24/10/17).

Oliver Hall; Aged 24, from Britain. Killed defusing ISIL IED in Raqqa City. November 25th 2017 (25/11/17).

Sinan Ateş; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by Turkish fire during the defence of Afrin Canton. February 2nd 2018 (2/2/18).

Olivier Le Clainch; Aged 40, from France. Killed by Turkish fire during the defence of Afrin Canton. February 10th 2018 (10/2/18).

Samuel Leon; Aged 24, from Spain. Killed by Turkish fire during the defence of Afrin Canton. February 10th 2018 (10/2/18).

Sjoerd Heeger; Aged 24, from the Netherlands. Killed by ISIL fire during Operation: Cizre Storm. February 12th 2018 (12/2/18).

Haukur Hilmarsson; Aged 32, from Iceland. Killed by Turkish fire during the defence of Afrin Canton. February 24th 2018 (24/2/18).

Jake Klipsch; Aged 32, from America. Killed by Turkish fire during the defence of Afrin Canton. March 14th 2018 (14/3/18).

Anna Campbell; Aged 26, from Britain. Killed by Turkish fire during the defence of Afrin Canton. March 16th 2018 (16/3/18).

Alina Sánchez; Aged 32, from Argentina. Killed in vehicle accident near Hasakah City. March 17th 2018 (17/3/18).

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by Turkish fire in defence of Afrin Canton. March 2018.

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by Turkish fire in defence of Afrin Canton. March 2018.

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by Turkish fire in defence of Afrin Canton. March 2018.

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by Turkish fire in defence of Afrin Canton. March 2018.

Name Withheld to Protect Family; Age unknown, from Turkey. Killed by Turkish fire in defence of Afrin Canton. March 2018.

Jack Klebs; Age unknown, from America. Killed in Turkish IED attack whilst on patrol near Ayn Issa. April 2018.

Kendal Ramon; Age unknown, from Spain. Killed by ISIL fire near Mount Baghuz during Operation: Round Up. May 13th 2018 (13/5/18).

Farid Medjahed; Aged 36, from France. Killed by ISIL fire during Battle of the Hajin Pocket. October 6th 2018 (6/10/18).

These are the members of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOR) that did not return.

Captain William H. DuBois Jr; United States Air Force. Aged 30. Killed in F-16 crash returning from Syria mission. November 30th 2014 (30/11/14)

Captain Muath al-Kasabeh; Royal Jordanian Air Force. Aged 26. Captured and burned alive by ISIL in Raqqa City. January 3rd 2015 (3/1/15).

Senior Chief Petty Officer Scott Dayton; United States Navy. Aged 42. Killed defusing ISIL IED during first phase of Operation; Wrath of Euphrates. November 24th 2016 (24/11/16).

Sergeant Matthew Tonroe; British Army. Aged 33. Killed in Turkish IED attack whilst on patrol in Manbij. March 30th 2018 (30/3/18).

Master Sergeant Jonathon J. Dundar; United States Army. Aged 36. Killed in Turkish IED attack whilst on patrol in Manbij. March 30th 2018 (30/3/18).

I take some consolation from the fact that as they prepared to go into battle they all knew what they had signed up for

They also knew that not all of them would return. They knew that some of them were being sent out to die.

Yet they went anyway.

09:35 on 11/11/18 (UK date).

Well Played America. Well Played.

Yesterday (6/11/18) the US held its mid-term elections.

Now America is a country that has A LOT of democracy.

It's national government actually has three branches. Two of which are directly elected; the Executive and Legislative.

The most famous is probably the Executive. This is essentially the President who serves a four year terms.

The Legislative branch is Congress. This itself is divided into two chambers.

The lower chamber is the House of Representatives. Elected members there serve two year term. The mid-term elections are really about electing members of the House of Representatives.

The upper chamber is the Senate. Elected members there serve six year terms. However just to confuse everyone the start and end dates of those terms are staggered. So every two years one third of Senate seats are up for re-election.

That is just the Federal level. There is also the State level.

Elections at this level vary from State to State. Technically there are only 46 US States. The other 4 choose to define themselves as Commonwealths.

Generally speaking though each State has its Governor. This is essentially the President of the State. They also have their own elected legislative branch.

Aside from Governors and members of the State Congress at the State level people are also able to elect a host a public officials. Such as Judges, Prosecutors, Attorney Generals and Police Chiefs/Sheriffs.

Then there is the local level. Here people are able to elect members of local councils and a host of other local public officials.

One of the stories to come out last night election was the defeat of Kim Davis. In her effort to be re-elected as the County Clerk for Rowan County in Kentucky.

In most advanced democracies no-one knows what a County Clerk is. They certainly don't get to elect them. It's just another civil service job appointed by other civil servants.

Alongside choosing representatives and public officials US voters are also able to pass laws directly.

Last night in Florida voters passed Amendment 4 which restores voting rights to convicted felons. Whatever any elected officials in Florida feel about that doesn't matter. Voters have already made the decision for them.

Also last night in California voters rejected Proposition 6 which would have lowered state taxes on gasoline. So if any elected officials in California want to lower gasoline taxes voters have already decided that they can't.

The reason why the US has these different branches of government is so they each provide a check on each other. To prevent any one becoming too powerful.

So Congress can pass a law but the President can veto and refuse to sign it. The President can nominate someone to a public post - such as Judge to the unelected Judicial branch - but Congress can refuse to confirm them and block the appointment.

Therefore almost by design the President is supposed to represent one political party while another political party is supposed to have a majority in Congress. Although it must be said there are many elements of modern US politics that the Founding Father's did not intend when designing this system.

Midway through any government term voters have a tendency to get a bit fed up. So mid-term elections have traditionally been an opportunity for voters to give a little bit of a shove to the incumbents who are not themselves up for re-election.

Two years in there are certainly a few things that this current administration needs to be nudged into doing.

For example the US still hasn't gone through the truth and reconciliation process. Much needed to repair the racial divisions opened by the Democrats and their 2014 Black Lives Matter campaign.

Also the Democrats have still not been punished for their attempts to rig the 2016 Presidential Election. Hillary Clinton, Loretta Lynch and James Comey have still not been prosecuted. While Rob Rosenstein has not even been removed from his post.

Instead the Republicans have joined the Democrats in supporting the investigation of Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller. As it was intended to do this has succeeded in binding America to much of the failed foreign policy of Barack Obama which voters rejected in 2016.

To compensate the current administration has been forced to double down on the deranged ideas of Neo-Conservatives such as John Bolton,

John Bolton was one the main architects of both America's 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. As part of a bulldozer strategy of regime change across the middle-east. From the Mediterranean to India.

Even under a Republican controlled Congress John Bolton couldn't get confirmed as US Ambassador to the UN. Eventually even George W. Bush realised he was a disaster and got rid of him in December 2006.

Twelve years later Bolton is back from the political dead and still trying to push his mad agenda. Despite all the evidence that it is clearly not in America's interest.

The Democrats were hoping to harness this usual voter dissatisfaction to create a wave of support. Sweeping them to power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. From there they would impeach President Trump.

Before presumably building a Reich that would last for a thousand years.

Voters did indeed give the Democrats control over the House of Representatives. The lower chamber.

However at the same time voters imposed a check on the power of the House of Representatives. By increasing the Republican majority in the Senate. The upper house.

I think this is the first time in about 100 years that the party of a sitting President has managed to increase their majority in the Senate at a mid-term election.

What this means is hard to predict.

The Democrats seem to be indicating that they will use their control of House committees to continue to push the Mueller agenda. However by most accounts Mueller's investigation is at an end. He just didn't want to announce that he's come up empty right before the mid-terms.

So it may well be that Mueller's investigation ends in December, during that holiday period when no-one's paying much attention. Meaning that it will all be over before the Democrat House majority even takes up its seats in January.

Although I think it's pretty clear that Mueller is not behaving in a politically impartial manner. So might be tempted to drag things out.

The result though is most likely to mean more political deadlock with Democrats in the House trying to block Republicans in the Senate and vice versa.

Which certainly falls far short of the building of a new Reich.

15:40 on 7/11/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 54, Week 1, Day 2.

Really a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-featherweight-month-54-week-1.html

In that post I explained why September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) was the wrong time to choose to launch phase three of the SDF's Round Up operation.

The US element of CJTFOIR were either totally unaware of those reasons. Or they just wanted to launch an offensive against ISIL on the 9/11 anniversary.

Equally the French element of CJTFOIR were also totally unaware of those reasons. Or the just wanted to launch an offensive against ISIL as they were working hard to protect ISIL and Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland.

So on September 11th (11/9/18) phase three of Operation: Round Up was launched. It's objective was to completely defeat ISIL in the Hajin Pocket.

ISIL continue to maintain a presence on the Safa Plateau. However this is a desolate rock in the middle of nowhere.

ISIL also continue to maintain a small, around 1000 strong, presence in the Sudetenland. Close to Idlib City. However there they and everyone else are desperately trying to pretend that they're no longer members of ISIL. They're now the; 'Moderate Opposition.'

This leaves the Hajin Pocket as really the last population centre under ISIL control anywhere in the World. Whether it fulfils their twisted religious prophecy or not this is where they will make their last stand. Meaning that you would expect them to fight with every last man for every remaining inch and every remaining grain of sand.

The Hajin Pocket is made up of around 10 small and sparsely populated spread over roughly 240kmsq (144milesq). The largest of these is the town of Hajin itself. This only around 12kmsq (7 milesq) in area containing just five main roads.

To give you some perspective Hajin is roughly twice the size of the just the Old City district of ISIL's former de facto capital Raqqa City. The Old City district makes up only about 1/10th of Raqqa City.

Therefore the challenge of the Hajin Pocket is not really the urban areas themselves. Instead it is the layers of defences ISIL has built up around the urban areas.

These are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.

This third phase of Operation Round Up is being conducted on three axis; 

The north-western axis is focused on Hajin. 

The south-western axis is focused on Baghuz Fawqani. 

The third axis is a northern one focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.

Hajin is believed to be ISIL's current de facto capital. As a result the fighting on the north-western Hajin axis has been the heaviest and slowest moving.
  
Despite this over the course of the 29 days of operations the SDF's north-western axis advanced a little over 12km (7 miles) towards Hajin. 

Within that distance the SDF have liberated nearly 70 ISIL fighting positions including two complex trench networks. One around 3km (1.8 miles) in length.

As of October 9th (9/10/18) the SDF seemed to have pushed up against ISIL's main line of defence around Hajin. Leading to extremely fierce fighting.

The northern Sousse axis has seen similarly slow progress. For the first five days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) to September 15th (15/9/18) it seemed to be serving as a diversion for the other two axis.

 However on September 16th (16/9/18) the SDF managed to advance 2km (1.2 miles) on the Sousse axis. Liberating 11 ISIL fighting positions. On September 23rd (23/9/18) the SDF advanced 1km (0.6 milesq) on the axis. Liberating 4 ISIL fighting positions in the process.

The SDF's main progress has been made on the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis. 

On September 14th (14/9/18) the SDF reached ISIL's main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani. By September 16th (16/9/18) the SDF had broken through that main defensive layer. 

On September 20th (20/9/18) the SDF completely liberated Baghuz Fawqani.
Directly to the north of Baghuz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.
  
So on September 24th (24/9/18) both the SDF's south-western Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis both turned their attention to al-Shalja. The Sousse axis advanced to the west of the town while the Baghuz Fawqani axis advanced to the east of al-Shalja. 

Almost without a fight al-Shalja was liberated from ISIL on September 25th (25/9/18). 

This saw the SDF's south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis merge and effectively become one single axis.

Directly to the west of al-Shalja you have the town of as-Safafinah. To the west of as-Safafinah you have the town of al-Marashidah.
On September 28th (28/9/18) the SDF's now combined south-western axis began to advance out of al-Shalja. In the direction of Safafinah and Marashidah.

On October 2nd (2/10/18) the SDF entered Safafinah itself. On October 7th (7/10/18) the SDF entered Marashidah.

This focus by the SDF on Shalja, Safafinah and Marashidah did seem to have temporarily relieve some of the pressure on ISIL around Sousse. On September 29th (29/9/18) ISIL were able to recapture Mozan. This is a small area of canals directly to the south-east of Sousse.

However this seems to have a tactical move on the part of the SDF. Having focused their pressure on ISIL in those three other areas the SDF were quickly able to re-liberate Mozan on October 5th (5/10/18).

On October 10th (10/10/18) there were reports that the SDF had managed to liberated all of Marashidah. Amid a sudden withdrawal of ISIL forces from the town.

Unfortunately those reports were shortlived as on October 10th (10/10/18) the SDF suffered their first major setback of the operation. As it tends to do when September gives way to October the weather turned bringing with it heavy rain storms.

If you think that it never rains in the desert it most certainly does. When it rains in the desert what you get is wet, glue-like sand and massive flooding. This bout of storms has been particularly bad across the entire region. As far south as Jordan's Dead Sea coast 20 children were killed in flash flooding on October 25th (25/10/18).

Alongside rainstorms the weather also brought with it sandstorms which gave me a particular headache. To relax I've been streaming a US TV Show called; "Blindspot" online. It has emerged as something of a codebook. The premise of the show is that the FBI are hunting down a terrorist organisation. A terrorist organisation called; "Sandstorm."

In all the battles that have been fought against them one of ISIL's main weapons has been the Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (S-VBIED's). These are essentially large truck bombs which are driven at speed towards formations of enemy troops and then detonated by the driver.

Traditionally S-VBIED's have been combated using infantry weapons. 

One particularly ingenious thing the SDF have been doing is to modify the 12.7mm (0.51) calibre DShK heavy machine gun to fire as a massive single shot Hard Target Interdiction (HTI) sniper rifle. Guided anti-tank weapons such as the MILAN and BGM-TOW systems have also proved highly effective.

However, for some reason, CJTFOIR has decided to listen to Turkish demands for restrictions on what weapons can be supplied to the SDF. That along with good old fashioned laziness has meant that infantry units have come to rely too much on CJTFOIR airstrikes to defeat S-VBIED's.

CJTFOIR strike aircraft can operate in all weather conditions. However they find it much harder to operate in conditions of poor visibility. When there are clouds, rain, smoke or a haze of sand in the way. This is particularly true when they're trying to strike targets which are moving at speed.

So this poor weather and loss of visibility allowed ISIL to use S-VBIED's to launch a large-scale coordinated counter-attack. Across all fronts. So not just against the SDF's three axis but also against the town of al-Bahrah. Sitting around 5km (3 miles) north-west of Hajin this is where the SDF's Hajin axis launched from.

The worst day of SDF losses of this five day ISIL counter-offensive came on October 12th (12/10/18). 

The SDF were forced to withdraw entirely from Safafinah and Marashidah. ISIL were then able to cut the SDF supply lines between al-Shalja and Baghuz Fawqani. Leading to heavy fighting in al-Shalja, Baghuz Fawqani and Mozan.

Between Sousse and Mozan ISIL able to break through the SDF's lines completely. This allowed them to make a dash from the Syria/Iraq border where they clashed with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) including the Iranian backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias.

Most alarmingly ISIL were able to mount an attack on the Bahrah Internally Displaced People's (IDP) camp. Located just outside al-Bahrah this is home predominately to civilians who have fled ISIL in the Hajin Pocket.

The attack which was coordinated with ISIL fighters hidden amongst the camps residents was brought to an end following a full day of fighting. However not before ISIL had been able to kidnap 100 families from within the camp. Based on the average family size that translates to around 700 individuals.

On October 15th (15/10/18) the bad weather lifted. This allowed the SDF to quickly recover all lost positions meaning it was as if the ISIL counter-attack had never happened.

That is apart from the roughly 700 civilians hostages ISIL had kidnapped and the roughly 100 SDF fighters killed. Tribal forces from the Shaddadi area which fight as part of the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC) were particularly hard hit. Losing around 40 fighters.

Another round of bad weather blew in on October 18th (18/10/18). This again allowed ISIL to launch S-VBIED led counter-offensive across all fronts. However on this occasion they were much less successful. ISIL were though able to launch sabotage attacks against the Shaheel and Omar Oil & Gas Fields burning several well heads.

This round of bad weather lifted on October 20th (20/10/18). However the ISIL counter-offensive continued on the Baghuz Fawqani and al-Bahrah fronts. Although with little impact.

On October 22nd (22/10/18) the SDF repelled the ISIL counter-offensive on the Baghuz Fawqani front. They then went of the offensive to liberate Sousse.

This involved the SDF attacking ISIL in Sousse on three sub-axis. One of these advanced on Sousse from the north while the second advanced on Sousse from the north-east. The third advanced from the south to encircle Sousse to the west. Cutting it off from Marashidah.

This new tactic was remarkably effective. By the following day (23/10/18) the SDF were in control of around 70% of Sousse. 

On October 24th (24/10/18) ISIL attempted to break through the SDF's lines to escape both Sousse and Marashidah. Presumably towards the Syria/Iraq border. This failed completely and by the end of the day the SDF were again in full control of Marashidah.

By October 25th (25/10/18) the SDF had almost completely liberated all of Sousse. Amid conflicting reports of a small ISIL pocket holding out in the town.

Then the bad weather set in again. Allowing ISIL to launch another large-scale, coordinated counter-offensive across all fronts.

The worst day of SDF losses came on October 27th (27/10/18). 

Having been unable to consolidate their control over Sousse the SDF were forced out of the town. ISIL then concentrated their attacks on the SDF to the south of Sousse. The line dividing it from Marashidah and Safafinah. 

This isn't trench warfare. So when we talk about the SDF's line we're not talking about soldiers standing shoulder-to-shoulder in a long line. Instead you have different units which are known in the jargon as; "Echelons." These echelons may have gaps between them but it is the different echelons which form the line.

ISIL concentrated their attacks on the echelon made up of the DEZ-MC. 

For some reason this echelon had radios which allowed them to communicate with other members of the DEZ-MC and CJTFOIR. However they did not have radios which allowed them to communicate with the wider SDF. Including the YPG echelons which were either side of them. 

Under this sustained ISIL attack the DEZ-MC echelon appears to have panicked and run away. Having lost their shape ISIL were then very easily able to pick them off one-by-one effectively massacring them all.

The collapse of the DEZ-MC echelon also created a gap in the SDF line. This allowed ISIL to break through and move to outflank the other echelons. That left those elements of SDF with no choice other than to retreat. Or face being encircled and massacred.

Even the French Wagram artillery units who have been such a driving force behind the operation were forced to retreat. Not because they were at particular risk of being overrun. Artillery guns are designed to engage targets over large distances. At shorter distances they're very little use at all.

What exacerbated this outflanking problem was ISIL's use of tunnels to pop-up behind the SDF's lines. Or more accurately it was exacerbated by the SDF's failure to deal with these tunnels earlier.

In the future when the SDF uncover one of these tunnel entrances they need to make destroying it a priority. Either by blowing it up or simply pushing earth into it. Ideally they'd use something like a remote control car with a webcam attached to map the tunnel system. That would allow them to identify the points to bring in an airstrike to do the most damage to the entire system.

Amid those still missing in action it is hard to say exactly how many members of the SDF were killed over those three days of fighting. 

However the current best guess is 80. Of which 78 were members of the DEZ-MC and 2 were members of the YPG. On top of the 40 they lost in the ISIL counter-offensive of October 10th (10/10/18) this means the DEZ-MC have now been all but wiped out as a fighting force.

This enforced retreat saw the SDF lose all positions within the Hajin Pocket. 

Crucially it also saw the SDF lose Baghuz Tathani. Which they'd liberated back on May 14th (14/5/18). This is strategically important because it sits right on the Syria/Iraq border. Given ISIL access to Iraq.

Over the course of the entire Round Up operation the SDF have lost around 300 fighters in total. I for one am really not happy about giving back the territory they gave their lives to win.

However this is very far from a crushing defeat of the SDF. Nor is it the start of an ISIL resurgence. Once the Baghuz Tathani problem has been solved the SDF can keep ISIL contained within the Hajin Pocket.

If I'd planned the operation I'd have planned to leave ISIL contained in the Hajin Pocket until the spring of 2019. So I'm not seeing this as a great loss.

Believe it or these is even more I have to add to this string of posts. Which will have to wait until tomorrow.

The main points though are that I would have waited to launch the Hajin Pocket operation. At least until the results of the pressure on Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Sudetenland.

Led primarily by France the international community decided not to put pressure on Erdogan. Instead rewarding him with the DMZ agreement.

Erdogan has then boosted his own confidence through his Khashoggi campaign. He even thinks that today that will put the Democrats who have long protected him back in power in the US.

As a result Erdogan has become extremely aggressive in Shangri-La. These ISIL attacks have gone hand-in-hand with HaQ/MIT attacks against the SDF.

On October 12th (12/10/18) Erdogan pledged a fullscale Turkish invasion of Shangri-La. Since October 28th (28/10/18) the Turkish military have been periodically shelling Shangri-La from within Turkey.

As a result the SDF have been forced to redeploy their forces to Shangri-La's northern border with Turkey and its western boundary with the Garvaghy Road area. 

This means the SDF can't even contemplate mounting another operation in the Hajin Pocket until that Turkish threat is eliminated.

20:15 on 6/11/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 54, Week 1 Day 1.

A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-featherweight-month-53-week-4.html

What made CJTFOIR's decision to launch the Battle of Raqqa City in June 2017 even more inexplicable was that by then the Syrians had already launched their push across Syria towards the Euphrates River.

This saw the Syrians start to push from west-to-east across the centre of the country in May 2017. In the north of the country they set out from Aleppo City. In the south of the country they set out from the capital Damascus.

On June 10th 2017 (10/6/17) the Syrians southern axis reached and liberated the town of al-Tanf on the Syria/Iraq border. Just four days after CJTFOIR had forced the SDF into the Battle of Raqqa City.

On July 30th 2017 (30/7/17) the Syrians northern axis reached and liberated the town of Dalhah. This blocked the SDF's advance along the southern banks of the Euphrates.

On August 6th 2017 (6/8/17) the Syrians northern and southern axis' converged on the town of As-Suknah. This sits in central Syria around 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra and around 120km (70 miles) south-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.

Throughout the conflict the Syrians have maintained a presence in Deir-ez-Zour City. Despite numerous attempts by ISIL to take full control of the city besieged Syrian forces managed to hold onto two areas in the south-west and south-east of the city.

The Syrians liberation of as-Suknah was the first stage of an operation to advance on Deir-ez-Zour City breaking the siege.

The liberation of as-Suknah also marked the start of a race between the Syrians and the SDF.

If the Syrians were able to reach Deir-ez-Zour City before the SDF they could cross the Euphrates and cut off the SDF at Shadaddi. Leaving the area between the Madan-Shadaddi Line and the Syria/Iraq border under Syrian rather than SDF control. An area that includes several large oil fields.

Unfortunately on August 6th (6/8/17) the SDF were in no position to start running that race. CJTFOIR had committed them to the Battle of Raqqa City on June 6th 2017 (6/6/17). A battle which dragged on until October 17th 2017 (17/10/17).

With the liberation of as-Suknah CJTFOIR finally realised their massive strategic failure. They then went into something of a blind panic. This saw them attempting to rush the Battle of Raqqa City to an end by massively increasing their use of airstrikes against the city.

Under significantly loosened rules of engagement these increased CJTFOIR airstrikes needlessly killed a large number of civilians. They also almost completely flattened Raqqa City destroying almost all of the civilian infrastructure including hospitals, homes and water and sanitation services.

Since the liberation of Raqqa City no real effort has been made to restore that civilian infrastructure. Little effort has been made to even de-mine the city and bury the dead.

Facing a second winter in Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camps which the UN and other international aid agencies refuse to supply local people are understandably getting restless.

Alongside bombing Raqqa City into oblivion CJTFOIR finally, belatedly launched the Cizre Storm operation on September 9th (9/9/17). However until the Battle of Raqqa city was won more than a month later this was conducted by wholly insufficient troops and was more of a statement of intent rather than a legitimate military operation. 

Aside from opening the route to as-Suknah and then Deir-ez-Zour City the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf on June 10th 2017 (10/6/17) dealt another strategic blow to CJTFOIR. In encircled the base designated "Bobby Sands" they'd been operating close to the town.

CJTFOIR had been using the Bobby Sands base to train groups which were part of the Southern Front coalition. At the time these operated across southern Syria. Particularly in the Yarmouk River Basin area close to the capital Damascus.

By encircling the Bobby Sands base the Syrians ended any possibility of the SDF expanding to include elements of the Southern Front. Giving them control across the south and south-west of the country alongside the north-west.

With the base being surrounded and rendered operationally non-viable Britain withdrew its SOF's.The US though continue to maintain a presence at Bobby Sands.

Having completely misunderstood what the Israelis have been saying to them the US believe the Bobby Sands base is vital to prevent Iran establishing a road route from Iraq. Via the H2 Highway to Damascus. Apparently even if that involves them losing influence over the entire rest of the country including multiple air bases Iran can fly in to.

The encirclement of the Bobby Sands base also left CJTFOIR with the problem of what to do with the groups in the Southern Front coalition they had been training there.

With the exception of the Revolutionary Commando Army/Jaish Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT) who refused CJTFOIR decided to dump these Southern Front groups on the SDF in Shangri-La. In the hope they could make up the numbers at the start of the Cizre Storm operation.

The YPG and latterly the SDF's real skill has been in coalition building.

We talk about the Battle of Kobane being fought by exclusively by the YPG. In reality though it was in that battle the SDF was formed. Even if it took a while to come up with the name.

Fragments of the FSA known as Euphrates Volcano/Burqan Furqat joined with the YPG to fight ISIL at Kobane. The establishment of Shangri-La was the result of combat but also the SDF expanding by forming alliances with other FSA fragments and local tribal forces.

The People's Protection Units (YPG) primary mission has been to protect local people. From the Syrian government and Islamist terrorist groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda. The SDF was created by other forces accepting that primary mission and making it their own.

The Southern Front however was created and trained by CJTFOIR for one purpose and one purpose only. To ally itself with other Sunni Islamist groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda to fight the Secular Shia Syrian government.

The Southern Front groups from Bobby Sands were simply imposed on the SDF by CJTFOIR. Without them going through the usual coalition building process and accepting the mission of the SDF. This immediately caused problems.

The biggest problem has been caused by the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar.

Immediately upon being transported to Shangri-La by CJTFOIR they refused to join the SDF and changed their name to the Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HaQ). Taking their orders from Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) they are now actively fighting alongside ISIL against the SDF within Shangri-La.

The other Southern Front groups transported to Shangri-La by CJTFOIR did at least agree to join the SDF. Forming the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC).

They though have failed to properly integrate with the SDF's command structure refusing to fully accept the SDF's mission. Instead they still try to fight alongside ISIL against the Syrian government.

The clearest example of this came during the early days of the Cizre Storm operation which launched on September 9th 2017 (9/9/17).

On September 13th 2017 (13/9/17) the SDF reached the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City.

Rather than continuing with the mission by advancing towards the Khobar River the DEZ-MC simply stood still for five days. Demanding permission to fight for ISIL against the Syrians in Deir-ez-Zour City. Apparently not realising they were in a massive race with the Syrians to reach the Syria/Iraq border.

Despite the immense hostility towards them by CJTFOIR and the US in particular the Syrians and Russia have actually been behaving very reasonably throughout all this.

Having arrived at as-Suknah on August 6th 2017 (6/8/17) the Syrians went onto liberate Deir-ez-Zour City on November 3rd 2017 (3/11/17). They then went on to liberate all the towns and villages on the south bank of the Euphrates.

On November 19th 2017 (19/11/17) the Syrians liberated the town of Al-Bukamal/Abu Kamal which sits right on the Syria/Iraq border. From there it would have been extremely easy for them to cross the Euphrates and move to cut off the SDF. Who at the time were still fighting ISIL at the juncture where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.

Instead though the Syrians and the Russians have entered into an unspoken agreement to allow the SDF to fully establish Shangri-La along the north-east banks of the Euphrates. No matter how long it takes them.

As I've mentioned the Cizre Storm operation had to be terminated on March 6th 2018 (6/3/18). Due to Turkey's invasion of Afrin Canton. An SDF controlled territory in the north-west of Syria.

The end of the Cizre Storm operation saw the SDF in control of the Buwarah Salt Pan area on the Syria/Iraq border. They were also in control of the town of al-Bahrah. This sits on the north bank of the Euphrates around 40km (25 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border.

This left ISIL in control of a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. Centred around the town of Hajin this is known as the; "Hajin Pocket."

On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused directly on the Hajin pocket. Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.

This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th 2018 (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.

On August 7th 2018 (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up.

As a result the opening two phases of the Round Up operation were declared at an end. There was then a short operational pause to prepare for the start of the third phase of the operation.

That third phase of the Round Up operation was launched on the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18). It's objective was to completely liberate the Hajin Pocket from ISIL.

At around 18:05 on 5/11/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:40 on 5/11/18 (UK date) to add;

It is said that in war you seize the initiative by launching operations at the time on your choosing.

This was completely the wrong time to launch the third phase of the Round Up operation. It seems to have been chosen for no other reason than to announce an operation on the 9/11 anniversary.

Much of August and September 2018 were taken up over speculation of a Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland. An area in north-west Syria directly to the south of Afrin Canton. The rumour was that such an operation would be launched on September 10th (10/9/18).

The Sudetenland is Syria's trashcan. There is nothing and no-one there which has any place in Syria's future or the future of the wider World. It is totally dominated by Al Qaeda.

NATO has been fighting Al Qaeda in Afghanistan for 17 years now. You'd think then if Syria and Russia wanted to go and kill a lot of Al Qaeda fighters in north-west Syria NATO would just happily accept the favour.

The belief that the Sudetenland should be in any way protected from a Syrian operation shows a complete misunderstanding of the conflict. What belies and even worse misunderstanding of the conflict is the belief that any Syrian operation in the Sudetenland would be a single, large offensive.

The Sudetenland is much larger than a single city or even a province. All told it covers around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). Spread across four Syrian provinces. In that area you have in excess of 30 cities, towns or other significant population centres.

Therefore rather than being a single, large offensive any Syrian operation in the Sudetenland would be much more like the Abu Duhur Air Base offensive. Between October 2017 and January 2018 the Syrians advanced on the Abu Duhur Air Base liberating the Hoss Plateau on the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland in the process.

That Abu Duhur operation put great pressure on Turkey which operates 13 small military bases across the Sudetenland. A similar offensive now would again put immense pressure on Turkey to either fight Syria directly or allow the offensive to continue.

At the best of times Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan likes to lash out. When he's under pressure he is particularly likely to lash out against his allies in order to bully them into supporting him.

Put under pressure in the Sudetenland Erdogan would be extremely likely to lash out against CJTFOIR and the SDF in Shangri-La.

The main mechanism Erdogan has to lash out in Shangri-La is HaQ. Having been transported into Shangri-La by them in the summer of 2017 CJTFOIR has done precious little to eliminate the HaQ threat. 

HaQ operate as a clandestine terrorist group. That means rather than launching conventional military offensives they rely on Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and sniper attacks against both the SDF and the civilian population. Across the entire Shangri-La area.

The surest way to eliminate the HaQ threat is for Turkey to simply stop funding, arming and directing the group. You would certainly think that is something CJTFOIR would be able to demand of its ally.

Failing that HaQ need to be dealt with by a counter-insurgency operation. This is labour intensive and time consuming process that involves gathering intelligence on the group and its members. When HaQ's members and hide outs are identified they need to be raided and eliminated by specialist forces. Similar to the SDF's Counter-Terrorism Force (YAT).

While waiting for the counter-insurgency operation to take effect the SDF need to increase their patrols around key areas and increase their use of roadblocks to inhibit HaQ's movement. That requires manpower.

Erdogan also has the ability to invade Shangri-La directly. As he invaded Afrin Canton in January 2018 and as he invaded the adjoining Garvaghy Road area in August 2016. The Garvaghy Road area directly borders Shangri-La to the west.

In order to deter Erdogan from lashing out in this way the SDF need to deploy large numbers of troops. Both to the boundary between Shangri-La and Garvaghy Road and to the border between Shangri-La and Turkey to the north. Again that requires manpower.

Amid these twin Turkish threats the SDF simply wouldn't have the resources to also conduct an operation against ISIL in the Hajin Pocket. Therefore their only option was to contain ISIL within the Hajin Pocket until the Sudetenland had been liberated and the Turkish threat had dissipated.

CJTFOIR decided to push the SDF into phase three of the Round Up operation regardless.

I will cover the progress of that operation in more detail tomorrow. However it has ended in complete failure.

Over the weekend of October 26th (26/10/18) to October 29th (29/10/18) ISIL launched a large offensive against the DEZ-MC echelon of the SDF's lines. The DEZ-MC echelon panicked and scattered resulting in roughly 100 of their fighters being picked off by ISIL.

With the SDF's lines broken they had to withdraw completely from the Hajin pocket. Including from Baghuz Tahtani which they'd liberated back on May 14th (14/5/18). 

Fortunately the Iranian-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have stepped in to tidy up CJTFOIR's mistakes. They've sealed the Syria/Iraq border on the Iraqi side. Meaning that ISIL continue to be contained with the Hajin Pocket.

20:45 on 5/11/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 53, Week 4, Day 7.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La: This is located in north-east Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River. If you look at a map of Syria the Euphrates River is the big blue line.

Shangri-La has long been the main battleground between the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

The SDF is supposedly supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.

The boundaries of Shangri-La were properly established by an SDF operation codenamed; "Operation: Cizre Storm." This was launched in September 2017.

Cizre Storm saw the SDF advance from positions already under their control. Essentially an imaginary line in the desert between the town of Madan on the banks of the Euphrates and the town of Shadaddi.

From this Madan-Shadaddi Line the SDF advanced first to the Khobar River and then to the Syria/Iraq border. Fighting and liberating territory from ISIL as they went.

This was done on two main axis;

One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.

A second that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.

On November 25th 2018 (25/11/18) the SDF reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan.

On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the SDF liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

This left ISIL in control of a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. Centred around the town of Hajin this is known as the; "Hajin Pocket."

On March 6th 2018 (6/5/18) SDF operations against ISIL in Shangri-La had to be suspended. Due to Turkey's invasion of Afrin Canton. An area under SDF control in the north-west of Syria.

On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up." This was intended to target and liberate the Hajin Pocket

This Cizre Storm operation, let alone the Round Up operation should have been launched far earlier. It was the natural next step after the completion of the SDF's "Operation: Wrath of Euphrates."

Launched in November 2016 the Wrath of Euphrates operation was conducted in the three phases;

The first phase of the operation was to advance south from the town of Ayn Issa. Already under SDF control Ayn Issa sits around 80km (50 miles) south-east of Kobane. The city the YPG famously defended against ISIL in six month battle between the autumn of 2014 and the spring of 2015.

This first phase of the operation was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16). It saw the SDF liberate roughly 600kmsq (360 milesq) of territory and take up positions roughly 55km (30 miles) south-east of Ayn Issa.

The second phase of the operation launched on December 10th 2016 (10/12/16) and saw the SDF sweep down the banks of the Euphrates. From where it enters Syria from Turkey to Lake Assad which is formed from the Euphrates at the town of Tabqa. This is around 85km (50 miles) south-west of Ayn Issa.

This second phase was completed on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17). It saw the SDF take up positions at Jabour Castle at Lake Assad some 10km (6 miles) west of the Tabqa Dam and liberate roughly 3,200kmsq (1,900 milesq) of territory between Lake Assad and the Ayn Issa line.

The third phase was launched on February 4th 2017 (4/2/17). It objective was to secure the territory north-west of Raqqa City. ISIL's de facto capital at the time. This would cut Raqqa City off from Deir-ez-Zour City. The other major ISIL held city on the Euphrates.

Raqqa City sits around 75km (45 miles) south-east of Ayn Issa. While Deir-ez-Zour City sits around  220km (130 miles) south-east of Ayn Issa

On March 6th 2017 (6/3/17) the SDF secured control of the main Raqqa to Deir-ez-Zour road around 6km (3.5 miles) south-east of the town of Madan. Madan sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour.

This third phase was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions around al-Karamah. Which is roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

In the process the SDF fought and drove ISIL from another roughly 1000kmsq (600 milesq) of territory. This brought the total territory liberated in the operation to in excess of 4,200kmsq (2,500 milesq).

It was considered far too dangerous to leave ISIL in control of the Tabqa Dam. They could simply blow it up and send all of Lake Assad flooding everything down river in a massive, destructive blue wave.

So on March 22nd 2017 (22/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate both the town of Tabqa and the Tabqa Dam. This was completed on May 11th (11/5/17).

Having liberated Tabqa and secured Taqba Dam the logical next step would have been for the SDF to launch the Cizre Storm operation. Pushing down from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Syria/Iraq border.

I personally hate counter-factuals.

However still being in control of their de facto capital Raqqa City and the major city of Deir-ez-Zour the towns in the Hajin Pocket were likely to be of limited value to ISIL. Meaning that they would not fight for them as hard as they are fighting for them now.

Establishing the boundaries of Shangri-La in the spring of 2017 would have ended any question of the Syrians themselves liberating the area along the banks of the Euphrates. Along with the area to the north-west of the river. It then would have clearly become the SDF and CJTFOIR's responsibility.

With its boundaries properly established Shangri-La could then have become a safe haven. In fact if not name. A zone in which Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP's) from other areas of Syria could be cared for by the United Nations and other international aid bodies long before they became refugees.

Securing Baqhuz Fawqani and it's river crossing to Al Bukamal/Abu Kamal would also have allowed the SDF coalition to expand to include members of the Southern Front coalition. Including those being trained by CJTFOIR at the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf. Even if not all elements of the Southern Front would be compatible with the SDF.

If the SDF coalition were able to expand to include fragments of the Southern Front coalition that would have extended their control all the way across southern Syria. Really up to the southern boundary of the Sudetenland. Including around the capital Damascus.

Unfortunately CJTFOIR had become obsessed with liberating Raqqa City.

So on June 6th 2017 (6/6/17) the SDF were forced into a battle to liberate what was then ISIL's de facto capital. This battle dragged on until October 20th 2017 (20/10/17).

CJTFOIR's obsession with liberating Raqqa City really stemmed from the battle to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul. This disastrous operation was launched under then US President Barack Obama on October 16th 2016 (16/10/16).

Democrat President Obama's thinking was that a big, high profile battle would convince US voters that US Democrats were not allied with ISIL. A quick victory would then propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in the US Presidential Election on November 8th 2016 (8/11/16).

In order to secure this quick victory Obama's strategy centred around leaving the entire west of Mosul undefended. So ISIL would be able to flee back across the border to Raqqa City in Syria.

Obama's desire to preserve ISIL at all cost caused a huge amount of consternation. Not only amongst NATO and the CJTFOIR coalition but across the globe. Eventually Iranian backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias moved in to close this; "Falls Road" to the west of Mosul.

Stinging from this global criticism that it was still allied with ISIL CJTFOIR became desperate to liberate Raqqa City in order to prove their detractors wrong.

The Battle of Raqqa City was launched on June 6th 2017 (6/6/17). The astonishingly poorly planned Battle of Mosul continued to drag on until July 20th 2017 (20/7/17).

What made CJTFOIR's decision to launch the Battle of Raqqa City in June 2017 even more inexplicable was that by then the Syrians had already launched their push across Syria to the Euphrates River.

Sadly I will have to pick this up on Monday.

17:40 on 2/11/18 (UK date)