To be read as a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2023/11/operation-saxon-needles-week-4-day-6.html
Obviously there are questions over how the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) was able to surprise the Israeli Security Forces (ISF) with this attack.
There is an example I always use to illustrate the challenges of this type of intelligence work. It involves the current Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
On July 7th 2005 (7/7/05) the British city of London came under attack by Al Qaeda. Which detonated near simultaneous suicide bombs on three Underground Rail (Metro/Tube) trains and a bus. Killing 52 civilians and wounding 784.
As the Israeli Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in London on July 7th (7/7/05). He was supposed to be travelling though the city from his hotel to an appointment when the bombs went off. Except his ISF security team held him in his hotel room. At the time I don't think they even told him why.
The Israelis seeming to have prior knowledge of The 7/7 Attacks spawned all sorts of lunatic conspiracy theories. About it being an inside job to smear Muslims, carried out by a global Jewish conspiracy. It also caused a rather major spat between Israeli and British intelligence. With Britain being angry that Israel didn't warn them in advance about the attack.
It is just one of the many, many ways that the people who are now demanding some mythical Laws of War are followed wouldn't dream of following the actual Laws of War themselves. They don't issue a formal declaration of war. Warning the governing authority in the area of an impending attack, allowing them to take steps to protect civilians under their authority.
Al Qaeda definitely didn't hand out leaflets to the civilians travelling on those trains and that bus. Warning them they were going to be attacked. Al Qaeda didn't send those passengers Text (sms) messages 10 minutes in advance. Al Qaeda most certainly didn't knock on the roofs of those trains and that bus to warn the civilians aboard that the attack was imminent.
So in trying to guard against an attack like October 7th (7/10/23) you're not looking for a clear, incontrovertible piece of evidence that an attack is imminent. Instead you're looking for that small thing or pattern of small things which seem out of place. That subtle change in the weather, the atmosphere, the ambiance, which gives you an uneasy feeling.
Obviously there is enough of an uneasy feeling you can get to hold your high value protectee at their hotel room door. If it turns out you're wrong then you can easily explain it away as a last minute telephone call.
While there's an uneasy enough feeling that will prompt you to warn an ally. Bearing in mind that in the world of espionage the first thing they'll do isn't to thank you. They'll tell you they don't believe you. In order to ask you a lot of follow up questions in the hope of getting access to your source. If the ally in question is Britain that will, probably, quickly lead to your source being killed.
Then there's an enough of an uneasy feeling you get to prompt you to cancel a popular public holiday. Suspend all normal life across your entire country. In order to call 360,000 reservists back into full military duty.
Finally there's that really uneasy feeling you get. When you've got to call up the reserve officers from the Mak'am.
Hamas, or technically its armed wing - the Qassam Brigades, is the standing army in Gaza. They have been since 2005. During that time it has fought numerous military clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). So the day that the ISF doesn't have intelligence that there is a standing army in Gaza that aspires to attack them. That's the unusual day. That's the day alarm bells start ringing.
The kidnap of Israelis in order to ransom them has been a longstanding tactic of various Palestinian armed groups since the 1960's. The massacre of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Summer Olympics held in Munich, Germany was originally planned as a kidnapping. It was the bungled German response which turned it into a massacre. It seems that barely a week went by in the 1970's and 1980's without Palestinians hijacking a civilian plane or ship in order to kidnap hostages for ransom.
In the summer of 2014 the IDF and Hamas fought a short skirmish is Gaza; "Operation: Protective Edge." This began as a clash between the IDF and Hamas on the Israeli Occupied Palestinian West Bank; "Operation: Brother's Keeper." That began with Hamas kidnapping, torturing and murdering three Israeli teenagers. In what seems like a botched attempt to take those hostage and ransom them.
What caused Brother's Keeper to expand into Protective Edge was an attempt by Hamas to use tunnels to infiltrate Kibbutz Sufa. Although the attack was thwarted by the IDF we have to assume it was an attempt to massacre some Israeli civilians while taking other Israeli civilians hostage. In order to ransom them for Hamas combatants being held in Israeli prisons.
During the course of Protective Edge Hamas killed two Israeli soldiers and kidnapped their remains from the battlefield, an actual War Crime contrary to Article 3 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. Hamas is still trying to ransom those remains in return for Hamas combatants being held in Israeli prisons.
So, again. The day that the ISF doesn't have intelligence that the standing army in Gaza has aspirations to kidnap Israelis to use as hostages for ransom. That's the day that starts giving you an uneasy feeling. That's the day alarm bells start ringing.
Looking back with the benefit of hindsight though there were warning signs which may have been missed. I certainly missed them.
For example I heard about the big military parade in Gaza City on October 4th (4/10/23). In which various new types of rockets and other weapons were flaunted. However I didn't see it as anything out of the ordinary. Certainly not a warning sign of an impending attack.
Likewise I heard the saga over the fires near Kibbutz Be'eri which started around September 29th (29/9/23). Whether they were just wildfires or part of a Hamas attack using incendiary balloons - a tactic which, incidentally, I think I accidentally helped invent back in 2016. Again I didn't make the connection between that and an impending attack. Particularly if the IDF was right and they were just wildfires. Thanks to Climate Change wildfires really aren't that unusual anymore.
There were more clear warning signs. However these occurred in Syria and Iraq. Which aren't the ISF's primary area of responsibility.
On October 6th (6/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist terror army in the Sudetenland area of Syria launched a drone attack against a graduation ceremony at a Syrian Military Academy in the Homs Province. Killing over 100 and wounding more than 300.
This was simply the largest in an escalating pattern of similar drone attacks by the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist terror army against the Syrian part of that Stop-Line. A clear sign that the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist terror army was growing impatient to break through the Stop-Line which has been holding them back since 2014.
The attacks by the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist terror army occurred alongside increased air and artillery attacks by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) part of the Stop-Line. Those attacks significantly increased following the questionable suicide bomb attack in Ankara or October 1st (1/10/23).
By October 5th (5/10/23) these Turkish attacks on the SDF part of the Stop-Line had escalated to the point the TSK launched a drone attack against US troops forming part of the Stop-Line in the Shangri-La area of Syria. This forced those US troops to shootdown the Turkish drone. Another clear sign of the Muslim Brotherhood's state-sponsors growing impatience to smash through the Stop-Line which has been holding them back since 2014.
Again though. I did not make the connection between those events and an imminent attack by the Muslim Brotherhood's Hamas on Israel.
Within the Israel-Palestine Conflict there is a concept known as; "The War Between The Wars." All sides know that there's going to be another armed conflict. So spend their time between the armed conflicts drawing up plans and preparing for the next armed conflict.
The October 7th (7/10/23) attack seems to be a plan that Hamas have been working on for years. In the hope of being able to put it into action during one of the coming armed conflicts. Making it even harder to predict and prevent it seems to have been taken off the shelf and put into action in very short order.
One of the main targets of the attack was the rave near Kibbutz Re'im. Although it was advertised in advance not even the organisers knew exactly where it was going to be until the Wednesday (4/10/23). Giving Hamas less than two days to refine its plan.
Hamas named their attack; "Operation: Al Aqsa Flood." A clear reference to what should have been Israel's 2023 Eurovision Song Contest entry. "Unicorn" by Noa Kirel.
As a sick joke, as part of that Hamas-Qatar alliance's attempt to use the charade of hostage negotiations to protect Hamas from Israel's counter-offensive. They took to releasing hostages two-by-two. Just as Noah is said to have loaded the animals into his Ark. All the animals except for the Unicorns.
Unicorn by Noa Kirel rather heavily trolled Miley Cyrus. Or rather her sister Noah Cyrus. Who aimed for the exotic Hebrew name; "Noa" yet missed.
If the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest had gone ahead. Then it would have been just a small part of the big comeback by the US. The US which is currently suffering under the Muslim Brotherhood puppet regime, the Biden Regime.
This big comeback was supposed to have started with Rihanna's performance at the Half-Time Show of the 2023 Super Bowl. Things really started to go wrong for the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. When I was assisting Rihanna with her Diamonds World Tour. She went on to date the Saudi Arabian national Hassan Jameel.
The Super Bowl was almost immediately followed by the release of what was supposed to be Miley Cyrus' big comeback album. Which would carry through to the Eurovision Song Contest, which should have taken place around May 2023. At the same time the Biden Regime was supposed to be conducting its Big Spring Offensive against Ukraine, the Donbas Republics and Russia. In the hope of collapsing the Russian supported part of the Stop-Line which has been holding the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist terror army back since 2014.
Obviously none of that actually happened. Only increasing the Muslim Brotherhood's frustration. Particularly at the US Biden Regime it has invested so heavily in.
However all these things went wrong for the Muslim Brotherhood back in the Winter/Spring of 2023. Possibly the last person to deal with it even I'd finished with what would have been Israel's 2023 Eurovision entry by July 2023.
What seemed to add the final impetus was the horrific events in Derna, Libya on September 10th (10/9/23) and September 11th (11/9/23). Which many on the ground likened to the Biblical flood which Noah protected all those animals from with his Ark. The failure to install a Muslim Brotherhood puppet regime in Libya is one of the big areas of the Muslim Brotherhood's frustration at the US Biden Regime.
Seemingly backed by the entire nation state of America Miley Cyrus released another single towards the end of August. One which wasn't on her supposed comeback album released around the time of the Super Bowl.
What The CIA have been trying to do with Miley Cyrus is rather similar to what Hamas has been trying to do with hostages like Gilad Shalit or Hadar Goldin. Occasionally they release photographs, video or audio files intended to make the blood boil. Miley Cyrus should count herself lucky that Maxx Morando is the worst thing the CIA can imagine to do to a person. Whereas I earned my spurs amongst much more creative types.
Unicorn by Noa Kirel also touched on the 2018 movie "Entebbe." This tells a version of the story of; "Operation: Thunderbolt." In which the IDF rescued 248 passengers aboard Air France Flight 139 in 1976. One of the many occasions in which Palestinian armed groups kidnapped Israeli civilians in order to hold them as hostages for ransom.
"Entebbe" (2018) is the second Western movie to be made about Operation: Thunderbolt. The first being; "Raid on Entebbe" (1977). The contrast between the two movies shows a possible shift in Western attitudes towards Israel in the years between them being made.
Operation: Thunderbolt was absolutely epic in military terms. I know quite a bit about the actual operation. Yet every time I re-watch either of the movies I'm still on the edge of my seat. Convinced that there's no way the IDF are going to be able to pull it off. There is no military reason why the IDF should have been able to pull it off.
The 1978 movie reflects this. It's sort of a triumphant celebration of the might of Israel and its military. While the tone of the 2018 movie suggests that Western leftists feel they can't say nice things about Israeli and its military. If they do then they have to temper it with this really weird modern interpretive dance subplot. Along with characters in every scene delivering thudding speeches about how Israel must seek a negotiated peace with the Palestinians.
One of the lead roles in the 2018 movie is played by German/Spanish/Brazilian actor Daniel Brühl. German Nazi guilt and its role in attitudes to the Israel-Palestine Conflict seems to be a recurring theme in Brühl's work. In 2022 he Executive Produced the German/US TV Show; "Munich Games."
Munich Games tells the entirely fictional story of a football match between a German team and an Israeli team. Arranged to mark the 50th anniversary of the massacre of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Summer Olympics. The Israeli team become the target for a 1972-style terrorist plot. However reflecting a Western leftist sense that you can't say bad things about Palestinians or Muslims. It turns out that it's really a neo-Nazi plot. A false flag attack intended to smear the reputations of Palestinians and Muslims.
Personally I didn't think Munich Games was much good. There's six episodes in the first season. Nothing happens in the first five of them. However the Muslim Brotherhood has seemed keen to promote it throughout 2023. Such as Israel making it to the semi-final of the Qatar-funded FIFA Under-20 Men's World Cup. The 2023 Women's World Cup intended to be another part of the Muslim Brotherhood's big comeback. Another part which just didn't happen.
Another motivator behind Hamas' attack was, undoubtedly, this talk of a possible military alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia. Which is said to involve Saudi Arabia formally recognising and establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. Rumours of this possible agreement starting leaking out from mid-September 2023 onwards.
In May 2017 Qatar attacked a concert by Ariana Grande at the Manchester Evening News Arena (MENA) in Manchester, UK. This was intended to intimidate Britain into not opposing the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist terror army in Syria and Iraq.
Britain cowered meekly at Qatar's feet. While Saudi Arabia expelled Qatar from the community of Gulf Arab states. To the point that Saudi Arabia began digging a canal to physically remove Qatar from the Arabian Peninsula. Particularly through the 2022 FIFA World Cup, along with the support of the Biden Regime. Qatar has been slowing weaselling its way back into the Arab world.
Qatar is very opposed to a military alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia. Not because they want to ruin the Biden Regime's chances of re-appointment in 2024. Although it has underperformed for the Muslim Brotherhood they wouldn't want to go so far as to ditch the Biden Regime. Nor is Qatar remotely concerned about the potential effects Saudi recognition of Israel would have on the Palestinians.
Qatar is simply opposed to having its ego further dented. The small progress it has made into making its way back into the Arab world being dwarfed by an alliance between Saudi Arabia and the US. Underlining that not only isn't Qatar a global power it's not even amongst the top powers in its own region.
Of course Miley Cyrus appeared with Ariana Grande at the; "One Love Manchester" memorial concert. About a week after the MENA bombing.
In naming its attack; "Operation: Al Aqsa Flood" Hamas claimed it was a retaliation for Israeli attacks on the status quo at the Al Aqsa/Temple Mount compound. Again, this underlined to me that Hamas' actions have absolutely nothing to do with the Israel-Palestine Conflict.
The Al-Aqsa Mosque in Israeli Occupied East Jerusalem is the third holiest site in Islam. It is built on the site of the First and Second Jewish Temples. Which is the holiest site in Judaism.
The current status quo is that Muslims, be they Arab, Palestinian or from anywhere else in the World, are allowed to pray at the Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount compound. Whereas Jews are allowed to visit but not pray at the holiest site in their religion. A detail which makes it really hard for me to explain this. In such a way as to make it sound as though Muslims are the ones who are having their Freedom of Religion oppressed.
The Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount compound is a massive flashpoint within the Israel-Palestine Conflict. The Second Intifada is sometimes referred to as; "The Al-Aqsa Intifada." Having been triggered by Ariel Sharon storming the compound to offer Jewish prayers. The Friday where there isn't a riot at the Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount compound or a week where there isn't a stabbing attack. Those are the unusual times that set off alarm bells.
Over the past year or so there haven't been any notable attacks on the status quo at Al-Aqsa. It has been almost unsettlingly quiet. Not in a way that would indicate that Palestinian resources are being saved for a big attack. It just seems that everyone in Israel/Palestine is absolutely frazzled due to the 2018-Present Political Crisis.
There have been some isolated reports of Jews claiming they've been able to pray at the Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount compound. However they're talking about being able to pray silently, heard only in their own heads. Also most of the reports have been about the Israeli Police arresting Jews on suspicion that they might have been praying. Something the Israeli Police will never be able to prove, yet they've made the arrests anyway.
Hamas' attack took place on Simchat Torah which comes at the end of the holiest period in the Jewish religious calendar. As Simchat Torah fell on a Friday Jews weren't even allowed to visit the holiest site in their religion. As access to the Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount compound was closed to everyone except Muslims. So they could conduct their usual Friday prayers. Something which, again, doesn't sound to me as though Muslims are the one's having their Freedom of Religion oppressed.
So Hamas' claim to be retaliating for Jewish attacks on the status quo at Al-Aqsa. That bore so little relation to reality you think it was probably written in somewhere like Minnesota or Michigan, rather than Gaza.
That 2018-Present Political Crisis was undoubtedly a factor in Hamas' choice to attack. Over the summer an increasing number of Israeli reservists had been resigning from their service with the IDF in protest over the proposed Judicial Reforms. Hamas clearly thought this meant they wouldn't turn up to help Israel defend itself. Those reservists have already given Hamas its response.
Further underlining the challenge of identifying the threat of an imminent attack on the Gaza border. In 2018 launched its; "Great March of Return." In which on every Friday they would march up to the Gaza Border Fence/Buffer Zone and try to break through it.
These weekly Hamas attacks on the Gaza Border Fence/Buffer Zone sort of fizzled out amid the Pandemic. At the end of August 2023 Hamas resumed these weekly attacks.
A key event occurred on the weekend of September 23rd (23/9/23). In which a Qatari delegation met with a Hamas delegation in Egypt and handed the Hamas delegation a lot of money. In the region of US$1million. Hamas then didn't mount an attack on the Gaza Border Fence/Buffer Zone on Friday September 29th (29/9/23). Hamas then resumed it attacks on Friday October 6th (6/10/23). Before launching its big attack on Saturday October 7th (7/10/23).
Obviously ultimate responsibility for Israel's security lies with the Israeli Prime Minister and the Israeli Cabinet, acting as the Executive Branch. I would be rather pleased if it turns out this was all Itamar Ben-Gvir's fault. As I've said, he's the last person anyone would want in the role of National Security Minister.
In practical terms though. Like all large organisations the Israeli government and ISF are only able to function through delegation. Meaning that if you go far enough down the Chain-of-Command. Then there is someone's whose main job is assessing security along the Gaza border from, say Midnight to 8AM. It's then someone else's main job from 8AM to 4PM. Then someone else's main job from 4PM to Midnight.
If, in doing their main job, all of these people have seen warnings about an imminent attack. Then passed those concerns all the way up the Chain-of-Command. Only for the Executive Branch to refuse to attend security briefings. As they refused to attend security briefings on Lebanon over the summer.
Then that would a major scandal. Not only will people have to resign. I'm pretty sure some people will have to go to prison.
Unless information of that nature emerges though. Obviously the ISF will have to examine this. Not really to see what went wrong, just to see what could have been done better. However I'm not currently seeing any indication of any major mistakes. The sort of thing that would constitute a dereliction of duty. Any mistakes that have been made are mistakes that I've made myself.
It must also be said that not only did the IDF's response work. It worked really well.
As soon as I heard about the attack I knew, from experience, that it was going to take two to three days to sort out. During that time my role was to remain as quiet as possible while focusing on my sector. To allow everyone else to focus on their sectors.
Assessing the situation on Sunday (8/10/23) through to Monday (9/10/23) I felt confident enough to continue with my week as scheduled. Such as going to a hardware store to pick up a pretty ominous sounding selection of building supplies.
The plan was that I'd be treating you to this series of lengthy essays that week. Before getting prepared for the start of the ground element of the Israeli counter-offensive.
Then we had that mad week. In which every idiot on the planet seemed to descend on Israel/Palestine with no idea what they were doing. All adamant they didn't want to hear from the guy who was doing this on October 6th (6/10/23).
As a result I'm not as across the ground operation as I'd like to be. However from what I have seen my only concern is that the IDF isn't being anywhere near aggressive enough. Aggression is really the entire point of war. Controlled aggression is how you win the bloody things. Although I don't want to go into too much detail. As the IDF still has the option of remedying the problem, without me pointing it out to all and sundry.
Obviously I will be working on this full time now. However I'm already getting the distinct impression that the best way for me to help is to keep quiet. Stay out of the IDF's way.
Leave it to the people who, clearly, know what they're doing.
21:03 on 6/11/23 (UK date).
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