Saturday 20 October 2018

Shock News: Donald Trump's Gun Shy.

On October 2nd (2/10/18) Turkey claimed that Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi had been murdered. Specifically the Saudi national had been murdered while visiting the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.

I covered this on Monday (15/10/18); https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/does-anyone-remember-manchester-bombing.html

And again on Wednesday (17/10/18); https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/soon-sultan-mehmed-shall-conquer.html

The only thing I would like to add is that Khashoggi frequently, including through the Washington Post, advocated for Saudi Arabia to adopt; "Moderate Islam."

Khashoggi defined moderate Islam as the type practiced by the Muslim Brotherhood. An organisation of which he was a member.

Specifically Khashoggi subscribed to the teachings of Muslim Bortherhood ideologue Yusuf al-Qaradawi.

You may remember that back in 2003 the US invaded Iraq. They then immediately ran into a lot of problems. Often in the form of suicide bombers.

At the same time Russia was also facing a lot of problems with suicide bombers. This included the new phenomenon of female suicide bombers known as; "Black Widows." The widows of Muslim men killed in the Chechen war. These Black Widows were largely responsible for the September 2004 Beslan School Massacre.

This massive increase in Islamist terror groups adopting suicide bombing as a tactic stems in no small part from a Fatwa or religious order Yusuf al-Qaradawi issued in 2003.

In it al-Qaradawi described suicide bombings to not only be legitimate. He declared it to be a duty of all Muslims. A duty they could not refuse.

In 2007 the Washington Post did a profile on al-Qaradawi and this new wave of suicide attacks. In it they declared al-Qaradawi to be; "The New Face of Terror."

I can only assume there was a significant management change at the Washington Post between 2007 and when they decided to employ Khashoggi in 2017.

Unfortunately by the time I came to cover the Khashoggi story the US had already decided how it was going to manage the issue.

On Monday (15/10/18) US President Donald Trump dispatched US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday (16/10/18). Then on to Turkey on Wednesday (17/10/18)

Yesterday (19/10/18) the US' strategy to manage the story was revealed for the World to see.

The US' approach to this has been the same as its approach to everything in the huge division between Saudi Arabia and Qatar over the Muslim Brotherhood;

Avoid making a decision in order to keep the US military base Udeid in Qatar open at all costs.

President Trump is also keen for the intensity to leave the story prior to the November 7th (7/11/18) US mid-terms. The Democrat supporting media have hardly hesitated in using the Khashoggi case to mobilise voters.

The US' plan involves Saudi Arabia accepting responsibility for the killing. However blaming it on the; "Rogue Killers" President Trump suggested on Monday (15/10/18). Then after a period of about a month Saudi Arabia will make a payment to keep the Turkish economy afloat for the next six months or so.

This is a very common approach to problems in Arab societies. Particularly ones ruled by Monarchs.

In western societies the social contract between a government and its people is that if there is a disaster of some kind an investigation will be held to get to the truth. Then changes will be made based on that truth.

In Arab societies the social contract is that when disaster strikes the government - or often Monarch - will pay out a large sum in compensation. In return the people agree not to demand the truth.

A prime example of this would be the anti-corruption probe Saudi Arabia conducted in October 2017. This saw some 500 senior figures including 11 Princes being arrested on various corruption charges. However rather than being put on trial they were all released after paying out large sums in compensation.

I also would say that it's not a particularly Arab thing. The US has recently been rocked by the Me Too movement. This seems to have been a long succession of powerful people - Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstien, Asia Argento etc - making large payouts to make claims of sexual misconduct go away.

Then of course you have the Black Lives Matter movement over police shootings. This began with the shooting of Michael Brown in August 2014. Regardless of whether these cases uncover evidence of wrongdoing they always seem to involve a large payout to the relatives of the dead.

To see how much credibility Saudi Arabia is giving to this script America is forcing them to read I think you only need to look at the timing of the announcement.

It came at around 01:00 in Saudi Arabia. Around 45 minutes before President Trump was due to attend a; "Round Table" style media appearance in Arizona, US. From there President Trump travelled to campaign rally.

This American version of events claims that Khashoggi was being interrogated by security officials. He then became violent and was placed in a choke-hold. Resulting in his death.

Saudi Arabia announced this almost at the moment Hillary Clinton was taking to the stage for a book launch by Gwen Carr. The mother of Eric Garner - the famous; "I Can't Breathe" man.

In July 2014 Eric Garner died of congenital heart condition in New York City, US. The Black Lives Matter movement however adopted the case claiming Garner had been murdered by police officers who placed him in a choke-hold. New York City paid the family US$5.9m in compensation.

Now the Saudis have made the announcement President Trump is hoping the story will run out of steam and the pressure will ease.

Obviously I am breaking my rule about working on Saturdays. So people have been briefed. However does anyone seriously think CNN, the Washington  Post or the New York Times are going to give Donald Trump a break?

Whether the US news media now back off the Khashoggi story or not is really immaterial. In showing weakness like this President Trump is merely setting himself up for the next scandal.

In early October the Honduran government demanded the US gives them more money to help stem the tide of illegal migration. A tactic they seem to have taken out of Turkey's book. President Trump refused.

Honduras has responded by sending this so-called migrant caravan through Guatemala and Mexico the US. In a sort of classic protection racket shakedown.

Now President Trump has shown just how weak he is this migrant caravan looks set to arrive on the US border days for the mid-term election.

No matter how justified police and soldiers beating women and children with billy clubs is never a good look politically.

11:25 on 20/10/18 (UK date).


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