The Days Countdown As The Bodycount Rises.

On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the US will hold its mid-term elections for Congress. The legislative branch of government.

Almost since their defeat at the 2016 Presidential Election the Democrat Party have been hoping to sweep to power in both houses of Congress at these elections. Mobilising supporters to vote in what they have dubbed a; "Blue Wave."

On September 28th (28/9/18) the World received something of portent of what that Democrat campaign could be like. During both the hearings on the appointment of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court and the annual opening of the United General Assembly.

A Tsunami - an actual Blue Wave - smashed into Sulawesi, Indonesia. At least 2,256 people were killed, 10,679 were seriously injured and more than 200,000 people were left homeless.

No sooner had Judge Kavanaugh been confirmed the Democrats moved onto the next part of their election campaign. Turkey's claims that Jamal Khashoggi had been killed by Saudi Arabia. Something the Democrats attempted to link to US President Trump and the Republican Party.

I covered the Khashoggi story here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/shock-news-donald-trumps-gun-shy.html

Although it has somewhat slipped into the background the Khashoggi story is very much active.

The Democrats though had already moved onto the next part of their election campaign. A series of suspicious packages sent across the course of last week.

I covered that here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/gunpowder-treason-plotz.html

An arrest was made in the suspicious packages story on Friday (26/10/18). So on Saturday (27/10/18) the Democrats moved onto the next part of their election campaign.

The mass shooting at the Tree of Life Synagogue in the Squirrel Hill area of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. That resulted in the deaths of 11 people. All of them Jewish.

Within US politics the conflict between gun rights and gun control has long been a source of deep political division. The Democrats generally support gun control while the Republicans generally support gun rights.

That means when there is a mass shooting of this type the Democrats can only really gain support while the Republicans can only really lose it.

This was the thinking behind the July 2016 mass shooting in Orlando, Florida. That was an Islamist terror attack directed by a foreign power to influence the 2016 Presidential election in the Democrats favour.

Even the choice of weapon - a Sig Sauer 516 rifle - was intended as a threat to Britain. Whose newly formed armed counter-terrorist police had just adopted the Sig Sauer 516 as their primary weapon.

The Democrats though refused to acknowledge it as an Islamist terror attack. Instead trying to present it as just another example of America's gun violence. They immediately introduced gun control legislation to Congress leading to a high profile confrontation with the Republicans who eventually blocked the passage of the legislation.

The Orlando attack specifically targeted the gay Pulse nightclub in a largely Hispanic area. In pushing for their gun control legislation the Democrats tried wrapping themselves in the flags of gays rights and Hispanic immigration. Two other divisive issues within American politics.

Going back as far as the 2014 mid-term elections and the Black Lives Matter campaign the Democrats have been seeding racial division in order to win votes. Even before I think he became the Republican's Presidential Candidate the Democrats have been trying to portray President Trump as racist, homophobic and anti-Semitic.

On that last point the Democrats don't seem at all bothered by the fact that President Trump's daughter Ivanka Trump is Jewish. As are her children and President Trump's grandchildren.

It should come as little surprise then that the Democrats have immediately tried blaming a shooting at a Jewish place of worship on the rhetoric of President Trump and the Republicans.

The Democrats were also keen to avoid having the suspicious package story being looked at in detail on the Sunday morning political discussion shows. For the simple reason it really doesn't stand up to that level of scrutiny.

For example these supposed pipebombs lack an explosive charge. Which is normally considered a pretty important part of a bomb. As a result most people are describing the packages as a hoax.

The only exception being the FBI. In a press conference on Friday (26/101/18) FBI Director Wray declared clearly that it is not a hoax. That seems to be further political bias on the part of the FBI who don't want to let things like facts spoil the Democrats election campaign.

Also the main trigger for the arrested man, Cesar Sayoc to conduct this hoax is the fact he'd recently been made homeless after being kicked out of his mother's house. His mother is a life-long Democrat and community activist.

One of the things that left me uncomfortable about the suspicious package hoax is that normally Democrat election stunts come with a death toll. I regret not being able to turn that general uneasy feeling into what Pittsburgh police would term; "Actionable Intelligence."

Away from the Democrats domestic election campaign there is a wider, more global significance to Saturday's (27/10/18) shooting.

As it was intended to do Turkey's claims about Khashoggi have boosted the profile and power of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan. That new found power was used to Erdogan to call France, Germany and Russia to a summit on Syria held in Turkey on Saturday (27/10/18).

Perversely Erdogan is also able to wield a lot of power over France and Germany due to Turkey's failing economy.

Banks in France, Germany and other parts of the European Union (EU) are remain heavily exposed to Turkish debt. Despite many warnings to disinvest. France and Germany are therefore are really too afraid to tell Erdogan no unless a Turkish economic collapse forces bankers in their countries to do without their bonuses.

Erdogan is also able to wield a lot of power over Russia due to sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and the UK.

Despite being far more significantly involved in the war in Syria than either France or Germany you will notice that the US was not invited too nor attended this summit in Turkey.

The Tree of Life Synagogue was specifically targeted in reference to the 2018 Winter Olympics. These were held in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South).

Almost unavoidably a major theme of the games was the ongoing, nearly 70 year war between the RoK and its northern neighbour. The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).

The South Korean hosts explored this by looking at the way the war has changed something as fundamental as people's religion.

As part of a US led strategy to counter the strict atheism of the DPRK South Koreans have switched from their traditional Animist religions to Abrahamic religions. Although South Koreans have opted for Christianity the oldest Abrahamic religion is Judaism.

Iconography from both the Anamist and Abrahamic religions featured in all of the ceremonies of the games.

As part of the preparation for hosting the games South Korea built an Abrahamic Tree of Life sculpture in the Olympic Park. Both to give to hint of how they intended to approach the issue of the conflict with the DPRK and to highlight the environmental impact of the trees they'd cut down to build the venues.

Another major theme of the games was the efforts by the South Korea's equivalent to the US' FBI - the National Intelligence Service (NIS) - to rig the country's 2012 Presidential election. In favour of Park Geun-hye who went on to win.

Amongst other efforts the NIS declared that foreign hackers were trying to interfere with the election. This allowed them to set up a special cyber taskforce to promote social media messages in support of Park Geun-hye and remove comments critical of her.

A close ally of South Korea this is where US Democrats got their inspiration from to try and rig the 2016 US Presidential election. They declared that Russia was trying to influence the election allowing a special task force to be set up to, amongst other things, monitor social media and spy on the Republican campaign.

Obviously where South Korea's NIS succeeded US Democrats failed. In part because South Korea broke the details of its election rigging scandal just before the 2016 US Presidential Election. Which led to the ouster and imprisonment of Park Guen-hye.

Many in America would have been distracted from the 2018 Winter Olympics by the February 14th (14/2/18) mass shooting in the Parkland area of Florida.

Park Guen-hye is the daughter of South Korean dictator Park Chung-hee who ruled from 1963 until 1979. About 30% of the population of South Korea has the family name; "Park." So you could certainly describe it as a sort of; "Parkland."

The main purpose of the Parkland shooting was to ambush then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as he visited Turkey. On this visit Tillerson was scheduled to force Erdogan to withdraw his forces from Syria. Particularly the Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road areas which need to be placed under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The type of weapon used in Parkland was the Armalite Rifle model 15 (AR-15). "Armalites" is a sort of codeword for the SDF. If it was easy to explain why it wouldn't be a particularly good codeword.

The Democrats response was organise big campaign marches demanding that the Armalites be banned. Needless to say Tillerson's visit to Turkey was not a success for America.

The Squirrel Hill area of Pittsburgh is around 40% Jewish. Exactly like how the Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland is around 40% Jewish. The primary weapon used in the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting was also an Armalite Rifle model 15 (AR-15).

As such it was intended as a gesture of support for Erdogan at that day's Syria summit. It was intended to boost his confidence by reassuring him that the Democrats and their desire to ban the Armalites would soon be back in power where they would be able to protect him.

Erdogan is deeply anti-Semitic. A quality he shares with US Democrats. Particularly Louis Farrakhan who had almost an entire section of the 2018 Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony dedicated to his hateful rhetoric.

As part of the Khashoggi case Erdogan highlighted how he had tricked the US into getting Israel to release Ebru Ozkan. A Turkish spy who'd been arrested while coordinating violence against Jews in Jerusalem. At the height of the Khashoggi story on October 16th (16/10/18) Erdogan moved to further boost his anti-Semitic credentials by staging an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Ankara.

So 11 dead Jews is the sort of thing that would make Recep Tayyip Erdogan smile.

Also as part of the Khashoggi case Erdogan conducted a terror attack against the Kerch High School in Russia's Crimea region. The was the worst school attack in Russia since the Beslan School Massacre in September 2004.

The Kerch High School shooting has provoked memories of the 1999 Columbine School Shooting in the US. Those same memories were also invoked by the Parkland shooting. Particularly at the 2018 Winter Olympics the Parkland shooting also drew comparisons with the Beslan School Massacre.

So alongside trying to boost Erdogan's confidence the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting was intended to put pressure on Russia at the Syria summit. By reopening some extremely sore old wounds.

If you've been following this blog for a while you will know that I make a point of not working on Saturdays.

The reason for this is particularly with the war in Syria its very easy for me to find myself working 365 days a year. That very quickly results in burn out which stops you from working at all for long periods while you recover. So it is important to force yourself to take at least one day off to give yourself a break.

In most Muslim nations the weekend is Friday and Saturday. In most other nations the weekend is Saturday and Sunday. So I take Saturday off because it is the day when the least amount of things are going on.

I actually drew attention to the fact that I don't like working on Saturday's by working on Saturday October 20th (20/10/18) to cover developments in the Khashoggi story. Then spending the next couple of days complaining about having to work on a Saturday.

Saturday also happens to be the Jewish Sabbath or Shabat. The Tree of Life synagogue shooting occurred during a Shabat services. As a result much of the global coverage made the point that Saturday is the Jewish Sabbath in order to explain why an attack on a Synagogue on that day is so significant.

If you didn't know me well you might get the impression that I don't work on Saturday's because I'm Jewish.

Although I don't see it as a value judgement I should point out that I'm not Jewish. In much the same way as I would like to state for the record that I am not a table. Nor am I an aeroplane.

Despite their screams of; "Nazi!" towards President Trump and his Jewish children and grandchildren it seems US Democrats believe the worst smear you can use against someone is to imply that they might be Jewish.

Worse even than suggesting that they might support gay rights.

Amongst the main themes for discussion at the 2018 Winter Olympics were Hard (military) Power, Soft (cultural) Power and Sharp Power. A relatively new concept which is not yet well defined.

One of the big examples cited was Britain's use of sport, particularly football as a mechanism of Soft Power.

Through match fixing the  English Premier League team Arsenal have been massively promoted in West Africa using their macho sounding nickname; "The Gunners." Britain has used Arsenal's popularity in West Africa to gather intelligence on those countries.

America has recently started to follow Britain's example by trying to promote American Football globally.

This has been led by the owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the English Premier League team Fulham Shahid Khan. He recently tried to by the spiritual home of English football, Wembley Stadium to turn it into an American Football stadium. This attempt was so unpopular I'm pretty sure England threatened to invade America in response.

Part of the effort to expand American Football globally saw a game played in London, UK on Sunday (28/10/18). It was between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles. Contrary to what I said yesterday the Philadelphia Eagles are the main rivals of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the local team for the Squirrel Tree area.

That American Football game was played at the same time as the English Premier League match between Crystal Palace and Arsenal. As I've mentioned Arsenal are nicknamed; "The Gunners" while Crystal Palace are nicknamed; "The Eagles."

Like the entire rest of the planet Britain really doesn't understand American football. It certainly doesn't understand the niche area of organising a mourning event for the main rivals of one of the teams playing. While most of the country is more interested in finding out who is going to win out in a battle between the Eagles and the Gunners.

So Britain was quite rattled by the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting. It was already pretty rattled by being left out of the Syria summit in Turkey.

At around 18:40 on 29/10/18 (UK date) I'll pick up Britain's panic after dinner.

Edited around 20:10 on 29/10/18 (UK date) to add above and below;

To settle its nerves Britain responded to the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting with a helicopter crash at the ground of Leicester City Football Club following their match against West Ham United. The helicopter belonged to the Thai billionaire owner of the Leicester City Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha who was killed in the crash.

Along with Arsenal Leicester City are another good example of football being used as a mechanism of Soft Power.

For the 70 years since 1946 Thai society has been dominated by absolute deference to King Bhumibol Adulyadej. In 1987 he was conferred the title; "King Bhumibol the Great." It is absolutely no coincidence that Srivaddhanaprabha's company is called; "King Power" and Leicester City's ground is officially called; "The King Power Stadium."

King Bhumibol had been in poor health since about 2006. In 2015 Thailand began serious preparations for his death and sucession by his far less respected son Maha Bodindradebayavarangkun. He eventually died in December 2016.

During this delicate transition period Leicester City suddenly became a very good football team. Their star striker Jamie Vardy broke the league record for scoring in consecutive games. Then the team won the 2015/16 title despite starting the season as 5000/1 outsiders.

This amazing run by Leicester City made them hugely popular in Thailand. So during this difficult Royal transition suddenly everyone in Thailand wanted to talk to Britain.

It appears what has caused the crash is the failure of the helicopter's tail rotor.

Helicopters work by the main rotor spinning really fast to create high pressure beneath them. This high pressure creates lift allowing the helicopter to fly. The problem is that as it spins the main rotor creates reverse torque. This spins the body of the helicopter in the opposite direction. The tail rotor counteracts this reverse torque effect by pushing sideways in the opposite direction.

When the tail rotor fails the helicopter spins around uncontrollably fast until it inevitably crashes down to the ground.

This effect also rather neatly sums of the story. Rather than making any statement it was intended to grab attention by allowing you to project pretty much any meaning you want onto it.

For example this topic of how helicopters work actually featured at the 2014 Winter Olympics held in Russia.

Many Russian helicopters don't have tail rotors. Instead the solve the problem of reverse torque by using two main rotors. Each spinning in the opposite direction. This coaxial design is made possible by a complex device known as a; "Kamov Gearbox."

People who didn't know this were a bit disturbed to arrive in Russia and see rescue helicopters that looked like they had a vital bit of equipment missing.

In 2013 the popstar Rihanna went on her politically charged Diamonds World Tour (DWT). Although she didn't play any concerts in the country the tour included a secretive visit to Thailand. This was intended as a gift by America to and old ally by giving them special access to and insight to Rihanna.

This backfired on Thailand spectacularly. To the point they staged a military coup to overthrow the government that had accepted America's gift. Nearly five years on that military junta is still in place and people are starting to get restless.

On October 22nd (22/10/18) a Thai rap collective "Rap Against Dictatorship" released the song; "My Country's Got (Prathet Ku Mee) condemning the military junta. Within a matter of hours the video had picked up a million views on YouTube. 

People are now waiting to see what the military junta will do to punish Rap Against Dictatorship. If you told me Thailand's military junta had used a helicopter crash to assassinate Srivaddhanaprabha for criticising them I wouldn't struggle to believe you.

One of the star players of Leicester City's title winning side was  Riyad Mahrez. He has since been sold to Manchester City. Which is owned by the sovereign wealth fund of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The same UAE which is allied with Saudi Arabia against Qatar and Turkey.

Despite sharing his name with the capital of Saudi Arabia Riyad Mahrez is actually Algerian.

Jamal Khashoggi was not a journalist nor a liberal reformer. He was a religious extremist and member of the Muslim Brotherhood terrorist group. He particularly subscribed to the teachings of Yusuf al-Qaradawi.

In 2003 al-Qaradawi wrote a fatwa or religious order declaring that Muslims were duty bound to commit suicide attacks. This led to a massive increase in Islamist suicide attacks including the emergence of female suicide attackers. Such as the Black Widows responsible for the September 2004 Beslan School Massacre.

Khashoggi and al-Qaradawi became close when they fought together in the Muslim Brotherhood's Armed Islamic Group (GIA) during Algeria's brutal 1991 to 2002 civil war.

Between 1954 and 1962 Algeria fought a war of independence against France. This war is still taught in military training as an example of guerrilla warfare and how to counter it. The war was so brutal that France itself describes its use of torture as; "widespread and systematic."

Despite this the brutality of the GIA means that Algerians still refer to the civil war as; "The Dirty War (La Sale Guerre)."

There are a couple of more references I could brainstorm which I'll have to add tomorrow. However as I said there isn't any actual significance to them.

21:20 on 29/10/18 (UK date).

Edited again at around 15:30 on 31/10/18 (UK date) to add;

The Khashoggi case really highlighted the different approaches taking by Arab and western societies. In Arab societies often governments will pay to make problems go away. In western societies there is an expectation that governments will investigate the causes of problems and alter their behaviour accordingly.

In July 2017 Britain was presented with a clear example of the conflict between these Arab and western approaches. In the form of the Grenfell Tower Fire.

Many of those involved in the Grenfell Tower fire were recent immigrants from the Riff region of Morocco.

The Riff region that has always been restive. In 2016 it saw mass Arab Spring style protests following the death of a fish seller. These protests ended when the Moroccan King promised to pay out compensation. Not just to the family of the dead man but to the entire Riff region.

By the summer of 2017 the Moroccan King had failed to make good on this compensation promise. Causing the protests to flare up again.

In what was an extremely stressful time for them I can't help but think Grenfell Tower's recent immigrants got confused about what country they were in and which argument they were having.

One of the questions raised about the Grenfell Tower fire is why helicopters weren't used to rescue people from the roof of the building. The answer to that is quite simple;

Helicopters work by creating high air pressure beneath them which causes lift and flight. Fires create heat which causes air to expand creating low pressure.

So if you'd try to land a helicopter on the roof of Grenfell Tower what you would have ended up with is a helicopter crash. You only need to look at the fireball created by the aviation fuel in Saturday's crash to see that would do nobody any good.

The gruesome detail about Saturday's crash is that helicopter's are actually very good at withstanding crashes. Their main body is designed in an oval shape similar to an egg. This is dissipates the energy from a crash around the cabin. Rather than into the bodies of the people inside the cabin.

So it is highly likely that the five people aboard that helicopter were alive as they burned to death.

As I mentioned in the suspect package story Britain was already quite sensitive about detailed discussions about pipebombs.

On November 5th every year Britain marks the anniversary of the failure of the 1605 Gunpowder Plot. This is celebrated with the mass lighting of bonfires and the setting off of fireworks.

Many of the the British towns and villages organising November 5th celebrations would look at the fireball of the helicopter crash and class it as only a small fire.

Here the story can really spin you out into oblivion.

The section of the 2018 Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony that featured Louis Farrakhan's vicious anti-Semitism really focused on the US' current obsession with the thought crime of; "Cultural Appropriation."

Such as Farrakhan appropriating the Abrahamic religion of Islam for his hateful Nation of Islam (NoI) cult; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-2018-winter-olympics-opening_17.html

As it never lets anyone forget Britain hosted the 2012 Summer Olympics. The Closing Ceremony of the Para-Olympics focused on the ancient tribes of Britain, their rituals and traditions.

Today (31/10/18) many people, particularly in America, a celebrating one of those ancient rituals. Samhain or Halloween.

Much of the 2018 Winter Olympics focused on the Taoist Wu Xing. These five core elements are said to control everything in the universe. Including the passage of the seasons. Fire being Summer, Water being Winter and so on.

Proving that wherever you go in the World people aren't that different Samhain marks the transition from the Summer season of growing and harvest to the Winter season of darkness and death. Hence all the references to a portal between the realm of the living and the realm of the dead.

Traditionally Samhain marks the start of the dark season with the lighting of bonfires. People then disguise their light faces with the dark ashes of those fires.

So "Blackface" is a Halloween tradition that dates back to long before we knew human skin came in different colours. If that offends black Americans perhaps they should stop trying to culturally appropriate other people's festivals and rituals.

The Gunpowder plot was the first act of resistance against a new breed of puritanical Protestant rulers. By 1642 this resistance had escalated to the English Civil War and by 1653 England doing away with Monarchs entirely to be ruled by Oliver Cromwell.

In order to force everyone to adopt their Protestant religion King James I and his followers appropriated the Samhain tradition of bonfires as a way to celebrate the failure of the gunpowder plot.

Somewhat like how South Koreans have moved to adopt Abrahamic religions over their traditional animist beliefs.

16:10 on 31/10/18 (UK date).

A Sketch in Blood & Fire.

Normally Saturday's a quiet. Even the Middle-Eastern accounts I follow on Twitter leave me in peace.

Yesterday (27/10/18) was definitely the exception. There was a mass shooting at a Synagogue in America which triggered a helicopter crash outside Premier League football stadium in the UK.

I will cover this in proper detail tomorrow. In the meantime I'll try and provide the bare bones outline of events.

The shooting at the Synagogue in Pennsylvania is just another part of the Democrats attempts to win control of Congress at the November 6th (6/11/18) mid-terms elections. It's almost identical to the June 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting which was part of the Democrats strategy to win the Presidency at that year's election.

Gun rights or gun control is a big partisan division in American politics. Traditionally Democrats support gun control while the Republicans oppose.

Mass shootings such as these allow the Democrats to highlight this division between themselves and the Republicans. While presenting themselves as protectors of minority groups. In Orlando it was Hispanics and the gay community. In Pennsylvania it is the Jews.

The shooting in Pennsylvania comes the day after an arrest in the suspicious package drama which had gripped America for the past week.

In America Sunday TV news is dominated by big in depth political discussion shows. It was vital that the political discussion was moved on from the suspicious package drama before those Sunday shows. If you subject the suspicious package drama to in depth examination it really doesn't stand up.

For example the mother of Cesar Sayoc is a life long Democrat and local community activist. Much like how the father of the Orlando shooter was a big Democrat supporter attending numerous Hillary Clinton campaign rallies.

There is also a wider, more international dimension to Saturday's shooting.

In recent weeks the World has been gripped by Turkey's lurid claims against Saudi Arabia over Jamal Khashoggi. One effect of this pressure is that France, Germany and Russia agreed to Turkish demands for a summit on Syria held yesterday (27/10/18).

The US was not invited to nor attended this summit.

The specific Synagogue attacked was the Tree of Life Synagogue. The 2018 Winter Olympics were held in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South). As part of preparations for hosting the games the RoK built a giant; "Tree of Life" monument.

This hinted at one of the main theme of the games. The RoK's move from traditional Animist religions to the Abrahamic religion of Christianity. A US-led strategy to counter the aggressive atheism of the Communist Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The 2018 Winter Olympics were marred by the February 14th (14/2/18) mass shooting in Parkland, Florida. Ruled by Park Chung-hee and then for a shorter time by his daughter Park Geun-hye you could almost describe the RoK as; "Parkland."

The main purpose of the Parkland shooting was to ambush then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as he visited Turkey on February 15th (15/2/18). This was intended to be the meeting in which the US forced Turkey to end its illegal military occupation of Syria. The ambush was intended to prevent that from happening.

By invoking memories of the Parkland shooting the Tree of Life shooting was intended to show further US support for Turkey. Reassuring him that the Democrats will soon regain power in the US and he will be protected.

The Squirrel Tree area where the Tree of Life shooting took place is about 40% Jewish. The Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School where the Parkland shooting occured is also about 40% Jewish.

The Tree of Life shooting was also intended to serve as an anti-Semitic slur against me. Although certainly not Jewish I chose not to work on Saturday's putting me in line with the rules of the Jewish sabbath or; "Shabat."

The Tree of Life shooting occured during a Shabat services. Reminding everyone that like me Jews don't work on Saturdays.

Suggesting that they're Jewish is apparently the worst insult US Democrats can think of to smear someone.

Other major themes of the 2018 Winter Olympics were Hard Power, Soft Power and this newly termed; "Sharp Power."

Britain has long used sport and in particular Premier League football as a mechanism of Soft Power. Arsenal FC or; "The Gunners" and West Africa being a prime example.

The US is currently trying to copy this by expanding global interest in their own strange sport known as; "American Football." Today sees an American Football game being played in London, UK. Between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Philadelphia Eagles being the local team for all of Pennsylvania.

As a result Britain was a bit rattled by the Tree of Life shooting. It was already pretty rattled by not being invited to the Syria summit in Turkey.

Yesterday's (27/10/18) helicopter crash occured at the ground of Leicester City football club. The helicopter belonged to club Chairman, the Thai businessman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha who was killed in the crash.

The recent successes of Leicester City football club are another good example of Britain using sport as a mechanism of Soft Power.

For as long as anyone can remember society in Thailand has been held together by King Bhumibol Adulyadej. In 2015/16 there was a period of uncertainty as King Bhumibol made way for his far less respected on son Maha Bodindradebayavarangkun.

So suddenly the Thai owned Leicester City won the Premier League in the 2015/16 season as 5000/1 outsiders. Creating much interest about the club in Thailand. 

Leicester City's fortunes have dipped recently. Due to the sale of Algerian star player Riyad Mahrez.

10:40 on 28/10/18 (UK date).

Gunpowder, Treason & Plotz.

For the past week the US has been working itself up into a frenzy amid the delivery of 13 suspicious packages. These are widely and wrongly reported to contain pipe bombs.

This has driven Democrats including stalwart New York City Mayor William Wilhelm into a state of totally legitimate, absolute terror.

As they attempt to drive their so-called; "Blue Wave" ahead of the November 6th (6/11/18) mid-terms.

Here in the UK the much more important date is November 5th (5/11/18).

This marks the 413th anniversary of an attempt by Catholic plotters including Guy Fawkes to assassinate Protestant King James I. By blowing up the House of Parliament as King James was giving a speech there.

More accurately it marks the failure of the plot. Followed by the brutal executions of the plotters.

This involved them being hung by the neck until they were almost dead. Tied to horses and dragged through the streets and then having each of their four limbs tied to horses so they were stretched out until the were almost dead. Having been hung, drawn and quartered they were finally burnt alive on bonfires.

Every year Britons celebrate this by burning effigies of the plotters on bonfires. While setting off gunpowder fuelled fireworks in mockery of their failure.

It is the one day of the year the entire country becomes almost as sectarian as Northern Ireland.

For people like me it is a time when you place a bucket of sand beneath the letterbox on your front door. In order to catch any pipe bombs that might come through.

So you'll excuse me if I don't take the opportunity to hold a tutorial on how to build a better pipe bomb.

However when you refer to a; "Pipe Bomb" it is generally taken to mean gunpowder packed inside a metal pipe. It is almost exactly the same as any firework you would buy in a store. Except the gunpowder is wrapped in a metal cylinder rather than a cardboard one.

When we talk about terror attacks or war we often refer to; "High Explosives." Gunpowder is what is known as a; "Low Explosive." Technically gunpowder doesn't actually explode. It merely burns.

However that is not to say that it is not without risks. In the precision engineered confines of a gun burning gunpowder can propel a metal object at around 400 metres/second. If that metal object hits you at those speeds its probably going to kill you. Or at least give you a very bad day.

Gunpowder is a compound made up of Sulfur, Charcoal and Potassium Nitrate. In America you can walk into a store and buy a can of it off the shelf. Much like how you would buy a can of coffee or a can of motor oil.

Curiously though the packages we've seen this week did not use gunpowder. They only contained Sulfur - just one of the ingredients of gunpowder.

Commonly used in matches Sulfur does burn when exposed to heat or friction. However paper and wood also burn when exposed to heat of friction. Graphite Rock burns at around 400C. Even Steel will burn at around 800C.

In gunpowder it is the Potassium Nitrate which gives the Sulfur its sub-explosive kick.

So the packages we've seen this week are not what any reasonable person would consider a bomb. Or any other type of explosive device.

Yesterday (26/10/18) a man was arrested in the US state of Florida for sending the packages. He has been identified as Cesar Sayoc.

He is an avid supporter of President Trump who has quickly been dubbed the; "Make America Great Again (MAGA) Bomber."

Apart from influencing the mid-term elections by fuelling the Democrats' Blue Wave there seems to be a more international political significance to this.

Sayoc is a heavily muscled body builder who clearly spends a lot of time in the gym. He also has a long criminal record for using Anabolic Steroids.

I myself spend some time in the gym. Although I find it to be the most boring thing in the World recently the World seems to have gotten a little bit too interested in my gym routine. After all over the World Cup 18 months of hardwork suddenly paid off.

For the past three weeks or so in the gym I've been focusing on building muscle in my upper arms and shoulders. Although on absolutely nothing like the scale of Sayoc.

I find this really tedious. It leaves me extremely tired. As what energy I have goes straight into building muscles I don't seem to need but the people who make clothes insist that I must have.

This has been a significant factor in why I think I came in a week late to the Jamal Khashoggi saga.

Although looking at the Kerch School Shooting there are probably some in America who think I came in a week too early. And wouldn't mind knifing me in the back as punishment.

If these packages have been directed by elements of the US intelligence community it would normally involve them putting the individual into a vulnerable psychological state. Then subtly suggesting something they could do with all their anger.

In short you wind them up and watch them go.

Since his arrest much has been made of Sayoc's van. Which he was living in after being kicked out of his parents home. That is exactly the sort of trigger used to put someone in a vulnerable psychological state.

So I would be very interested in the political affiliations of Sayoc's parents.

Along with that of their wider social group. Particularly any local government committees or boards they may be involved in.

11:45 on 27/10/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 53, Week 3, Day 6.

Really a continuation of this post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/operation-featherweight-month-52-week-3.html

In that post I discussed how the Syrians took full control of both the East Ghouta/East Qalamoun Mountains pocket and the Yarmouk River Basin area.

The last group to surrender in the Yarmouk River Basin area were the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid. On July 31st (31/7/18).

Just before they surrendered ISIL issued one more giant "F*ck You!" to humanity. On July 25th (25/7/18) they conducted a large-scale marauding attack against Suweida City and the surrounding towns of villages.

Predominately a Druze city Suweida City is the capital of Suweida Province. It sits around 95km (60 miles) south of Damascus and around 40km (25 miles) north of Syria's border with Jordan.

ISIL's attack of July 25th (25/7/18) saw multiple teams of gunmen wearing suicide vests maraude through the towns of Duma, Tayma and al-Matouna before reaching Suweida City. There they detonated a carbomb in the city's packed vegetable market.

The attack lasted for almost a full day. By the time it had come to an end 258 civilians had been killed and further 180 wounded. Crucially ISIL also kidnapped some 30 Druze women and children.

Under the terms of the surrender ISIL were allowed to leave the area with those hostages. They were transferred to the area around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

As I mentioned in my previous post the area bounded by Damascus, Palmyra, Al-Boukamal/Abu Kamal and Syria's south-eastern border is deep within the Syrian Desert/Badiya al-Sham.

This roughly 60,000kmsq (36,000 milesq) area is almost completely deserted. Making it extremely difficult to locate exactly where ISIL are holding those hostages.

The Syrians however have been able to track ISIL and their hostages to the al-Safa Volcanic Plateau with a high degree of certainty. This is a roughly 25kmsq (15 milesq) area sitting around 65km (40 miles) North-East of Suweida City and around 95km (60 miles) South-East of Damascus.

It took until August 8th (8/8/18) for the Syrians to fully secure the Yarmouk River Basin area. From there they almost immediately started an operation to rescue the Druze hostages from ISIL on the Safa Plateau. The first clashes were reported on August 21st (21/8/18).

The problem is that the Safa Plateau is an extremely challenging battleground.

It is essentially a large rock formation created by molten lava breaking through the Earth's Crust and then cooling. On its surface it is a mixture of peaks, valleys, crevices and crags.

It contains no fewer than 15 of what are known as; "Volcanic Cones." These are what most people would consider a Volcano. A giant hill out of which lava spews during an eruption.

It is these Volcanic Cones which give you a clue as to the real challenge of fighting on the Safa Plateau. Beneath the surface you have warrens of chambers, caves and natural tunnels. Which ISIL have no doubt added to with their own, man-made tunnels.

Part of what has taken me so long to address the issue is that I've been trying to research exactly what sits beneath the surface of the Safa Plateau. The result of that research is that no-one seems to know. It is almost completely unmapped.

I often write about how difficult and nasty urban warfare is. The big battles to liberate cities such as Mosul or Raqqa. This type of fighting prevents you from using armoured vehicles. It also forces you to get up close to your enemy as you inch your way through narrow streets and the corridors between rooms in buildings.

The type of fighting needed for somewhere like the Safa Plateau is closer to tunnel warfare. This is far more difficult and far nastier than urban warfare. You have all the same problems of having to inch your way through narrow streets and passageways. Except you've got to do it in the dark with absolutely no chance of air support.

You may remember that over the summer the World was gripped by efforts to rescue a youth football team from a cave system in Thailand. The battle for the Safa Plateau is a lot like that. Only with people shooting and lobbing hand grenades at you.

The nearest thing I can think to compare it to is the 2001 battle for Afghanistan's Tora Bora Mountains. In military circles this is considered one of the greatest battles of the entire Afghanistan campaign.

However very little is known about it by the public. That's because it was fought almost exclusively by highly elite Special Operations Forces (SOF's). Such as the US Navy SEALs, Britain's Special Boat Service (SBS) and Germany's Special Forces Command (SKS).

Despite the extreme difficulty of the task the Syrians been making a sustained effort in liberating the Safa Plateau.

By August 23rd (23/8/18) they had succeeded in surrounding the Safa Plateau. Cutting it off from other ISIL forces in the area. The Syrians then established a four person, Druze led committee to negotiate with ISIL over their surrender and crucially the release of the hostages.

On August 29th (29/8/18) the Syrians liberated the Hatil Dam. Sitting to the west of the Safa Plateau this represents the last major water source available to ISIL. Particularly in the desert it is extremely difficult to fight without access to water.

The following day on August 30th (30/8/18) the Syrians took control of the Oum Marzakh area at the north-west of the plateau. Effectively splitting ISIL forces into two areas isolated from each other.

To give you an idea of how hard the terrain is between August 30th (30/8/18) and September 6th (6/9/18) the Syrians only managed to advance a further 2km (1.2 miles). South-East onto the plateau from Oum Marzakh.

At around 17:25 on 25/10/18 (UK date) I'll pick this up later.

Edited at around 19:00 on 25/10/18 (UK date) to add;

From there the pace started to pick up. On September 8th (8/9/18) the Syrians advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating several caves. On September 11th (11/9/18) they liberated the Eastern Araji region.

These gains though did not come without loses. On September 12th (12/9/18) 14 Syrian troops were killed in a single ISIL ambush.

The Syrians sustained similarly heavy loses on September 17th (17/9/18). They lost 21 soldiers in the process of liberating the Arda Qaa Banat region to the North-West of the plateau.

On September 25th (25/9/18) the Syrians suffered a significant setback. Amid a large ISIL counter-attack they lost both Qaa Banat and Qabr Sheikh Hussein. Qabr Sheikh Hussein is a region around 2km (1.2miles) onto the plateau from the western edge.

The Syrians were though able to re-liberate Qabr Sheikh Hussein on September 27th (27/9/18). The following day they were able to advance a further 1km (0.6 miles).

The success of the Syrians progress was really highlighted on October 4th (4/10/18).

ISIL released a video in which they beheaded one of the Druze hostages. A 15 year old boy by the name Thawat Fadil. In the video ISIL went on to demand that they would kill all the hostages unless the Syrians ended their operation by October 6th (6/10/18).

That is obviously not the sort of demand you make if you are winning the battle.

The vulnerability of ISIL's position was exposed on October 5th (5/10/18). The Syrians once again liberated Qaa Banat.

The Syrians did then pause their operation. However not to meet ISIL's demand but to regroup and bring in reinforcements.

Annoyingly at around 19:50 on 25/10/18 (UK date) I'm going to have to pick this up again tomorrow.

Edited again at around 12:50 on 26/10/18 (UK date) to add;

In the battle for the Safa Plateau ISIL are not the only problem the Syrians face.

Contrary to the way it has been described in the western media the conflict in Syria has never been about liberal reformists trying to remove a repressive regime. It has always been about Sunni extremists trying to remove a secular government and replace it with a repressive regime.

Those Sunni despise having to live in a country where rights are given to non-Sunnis. They are particularly disgusted by having a President who is a member of the Alawite sect of Shia Islam.

Due to the sectarian and hate filled motives of the; 'moderate opposition' Syria's non-Sunnis have remained loyal to the Syrian government and its secular values. This is particularly true of Syria's Druze population.

The exception is a group of Lebanese Druze led by Walid Jumblatt. Describing themselves as the; "Men of Dignity/Rijal al-Karama" they have stopped just short of formally allying themselves with the Sunni extremists. However they use every opportunity to aid those Sunni groups by putting pressure on the Syrian government.

For example on September 25th (25/9/18) an agreement was reached for 400 ISIL fighters and their families to surrender the Ruqban camp and be transferred to the Sudetenland.

The following day Walid Jumblatt released a scorching statement condemning the move as an attempt to; "blow up" the Sudetenland agreement between Russia and Turkey. He even went so far as to compare it to the July 25th (25/7/18) ISIL attack on Suweida.

The Men of Dignity have very firmly latched themselves onto the fate to the Druze hostages as a way to further agitate against the Syrian government.

Immediately following the execution of Thawat Fadil by ISIL on October 4th (4/10/18) Walid Jumblatt issued another blistering statement accusing the Syrian government of instructing ISIL to kill the hostage. He baselessly claimed that this was done to derail negotiations being conducted by Sheikh Yahya al-Hajjar on behalf of the Men of Dignity.

On October 5th (5/10/18) the Men of Dignity organised a demonstration which stormed and occupied the Town Hall in Suweida City.

On October 9th (9/10/18) gunmen, likely linked to the Men of Dignity, opened fire on the Town Hall protest. Giving the Men of Dignity an excuse to further barricade themselves in the building while giving the impression they were being oppressed by the Syrian government.

On October 10th (10/10/18) the protest at the Suweida Town Hall issued the Syrian government with an ultimatum. Giving them 24hrs to secure the release of all the Druze hostages held by ISIL.

That is not just an unreasonable demand but a totally impossible one.

The hostages are being held by ISIL. So it falls to them to release them.

All the Syrians can do is try to rescue the hostages. That is something the Syrians are certainly trying their hardest to do. Conducting a three month military operation which has seen large numbers of Syrian soldiers killed.

The only thing I can think of that the Syrians can do to speed up that military operation is to copy what the Americans did in Afghanistan's Tora Bora Mountains in 2001. That operation began with an air raid. An air raid that went on continuously for three full days.

It's still not known exactly how many hundreds of tonnes of high explosives the US dropped on the Tora Bora caves during those 72 hours. However they did use several of their BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter" bombs. The typical bomb Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) use in Syria and Iraq weigh 127kg. The Daisy Cutter weighs 6,800kg.

The purpose of the Tora Bora air raid was to simulate an earthquake. To destroy the caves and everything in them.

Obviously that is not a tactic you can use if you are trying to rescue hostages being held in the caves. So instead the Syrians are being forced to send in troops to face down ISIL snipers and slowly comb through the extremely difficult terrain.

That means the Syrians are literally exchanging the lives of their soldiers for the lives of the Druze hostages. I honestly cannot think of anything more you can ask them to do.

On October 12th (12/10/18) the 4th Mechanised Division arrived in Suweida to join the battle for the Safa Plateau. It is led by Maher al-Assad - the brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Maher al-Assad met with the leaders of the Men of Dignity protest to reassure them over efforts to rescue the hostages. He also raised the issue of the roughly 30,000 Druze who are evading military service who would be very useful in those efforts to rescue the hostages.

On October 14th (14/10/18) Syrian operations resumed on the Safa Plateau. Amid heavy shelling they gained some territory around Qabr Sheikh Hussein although reports are that they were not able to hold onto all the gains. October 16th (16/10/18) saw another day of heavy losses with the Syrians losing 11 men in a single engagement.

The resumption of Syria's operations did though seem to have a positive effect on the negotiations with ISIL. On October 17th (17/10/18) both sides entered into a 24hr ceasefire.

On October 21st (21/10/18) ISIL released 6 hostages. In exchange for 25 women and child who were being held prisoner by Syria as family members of ISIL fighters.

ISIL also provided the names of 90 other women an children they want considered for release. As negotiations for the release of the remaining Druze hostages continue.

14:00 on 26/10/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 52, Week 3, Day 3.

The conflict in Syria can now be divided into five main areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Central Syria:

This is really all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.

This though still left several pockets outside of Syrian control;

The first one of these was an area around the town of al-Tanf. This remained under the partial control of ISIL.

This ISIL pocket has been created by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Taskforce: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). They operate a base close to al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT).

Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.

The second, much larger, pocket was centred around East Ghouta. This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.

The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains. Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km (20 miles) north-east of Douma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb.

East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam.

However their influence reduced the further you got into the East Qalamoun Mountains. An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The third pocket was the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta suburb. The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL. 

There was also an area to the west of the Central Syria area outside of Syrian control. The Yarmouk River Basin.

This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.

The Army of Conquest had a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the coalition.

The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operated in the Yarmouk River Basin.

The main group in the area though was the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest. Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). Others are deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.

In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the East Ghouta suburb itself. This operation ended in success on April 12th (12/4/18). The Army of Islam faction of the Army of Conquest surrendered the town of Douma placing the entire East Ghouta suburb under Syrian control.

While conducting operations within the East Ghouta suburb the Syrians were also attempting to regain control over the East Qalamoun Mountains.

On April 25th (25/4/18) Syrian forces formally entered and raised the Syrian national flag over the towns of Ruhaybah and Jayroud. This marked the complete and total liberation of the East Qalamoun Mountains area.

The Battle of East Ghouta saw all the Islamist groups unite to attack Syrian forces across the country. In an effort to support the Army of Islam in the battle by dividing the Syrian forces.

This Islamist alliance included ISIL who began attacking the Syrians from the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees.

On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrian lines around the Yarmouk Camp collapsed allowing ISIL to take control of the adjoining al-Qadam district to the west and the adjoining Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. Both of which are districts of Damascus itself.

On April 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians began an operation to recover the al-Qadam and Hajar al-Aswad districts and to expel ISIL from the Yarmouk Camp completely.

On April 30th (30/4/18) the Army of Conquest within the Yarmouk Camp formally surrendered to the Syrians.

On May 21st (21/5/18) ISIL also surrendered to the Syrians. This saw them surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

On May 22nd (22/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies took full control of the Yarmouk Camp.

This marked the complete closure of the East Ghouta area pocket within the Central Syria area.

On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.

The Syrian approach to this operation was the same as it had been in the Battle of East Ghouta and the operation to liberate the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees;

In order to minimise any loss of life prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout. Under the terms of what has become the standard surrender offered by the Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.

That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."

Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.

Initially none of the groups accepted the surrender offer.

So on June 21st (21/6/18)  the Syrians moved to liberate the town of Hirak.

This was considered the main gateway to the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. Sitting as it does on high ground around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.

On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. This prompted many of the armed groups to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.

On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak, Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussein surrendered and opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.

On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra.

On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City.

On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid agreed to surrender all their positions and be transferred to the small pocket around the Bobby Sands base close to al-Tanf.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin. The UNDOF has since returned to the Golan Heights.

As I've mentioned before much of August and September 2018 were taken up with talk of a looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland area. Or more accurately vocal and hostile opposition to such an operation by the NATO nations and sadly official bodies of the UN.

This was driven in no small part by rumours circulated the Army of Conquest and the Syrians themselves that Syria would be launching an operation on September 10th (10/9/18).

Syria did indeed launch an operation on September 10th (10/9/18). However it was not launched against the Army of Conquest in the Sudetenland. Instead it was launched against the remaining ISIL presence in the Central Syria area.

The majority of the Central Syria area is made up of the Syrian Desert or Badiya al-Sham. This is the World's ninth largest desert and strictly speaking covers an area of 500,000kmsq (200,000 milesq) encompassing almost all of Syria along with parts of Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

The area in the South-East of Syria along the borders with Jordan and Iraq is really where the desert is at its most extreme. Within the roughly 60,000kmsq (36,000 milesq) area between Damascus, Palmyra, Al-Boukamal/Abu Kamal and Syria's south-eastern border there is almost nothing except for sand dunes and gravel.

Within this area ISIL don't control any population centres, roads or any other strategic locations. They don't even really operate bases. What they do though is operate a number of small, mobile camps.

This actually makes them extremely difficult to locate. When they are located those ISIL camps are identified only by their GPS coordinates. For the small window of time before they are either destroyed or move.

The exception is the Ruqban Camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's). Control of this is shared between ISIL and Maghawir al-Thawra. The Islamist group trained and supported by the US.

The Ruqban Camp sits firmly within the deconfliction zone around America's Bobby Sands base. So if the Syrians were to move to expel ISIL from the camp it would put them in direct conflict with the US.

In fact on September 7th (7/9/18) the US deployed a company sized Quick Reaction Force (QRF) to conduct a live fire exercise at the Bobby Sands base. Specifically to deter Syria from liberating the Ruqban IDP camp from ISIL. A highly unusual use for a QRF of that size.

Due to the nature of the landscape and the enemy this stretch of the Syrian Desert is an area that needs almost constant sweeping. As a result there have been sporadic hit & run type clashes between the Syrians and ISIL ever since the summer of 2017.

On September 10th (10/9/18) though the Syrians launched a big sweeping operation. This was conducted on two axis. One sweeping west across Deir-ez-Zour Province and one sweeping east across Homs Province.

By September 11th (11/9/18) the Syrians had swept through around 30km (18 miles) clearing the villages of Nariyah and Rashwani. These sit close to Tar as Sarayim hill. Around 70km (40 miles) south-west of as-Suknah.

By September 13th (13/9/18) the Syrians had swept through another roughly 40km (25 miles) to clear the village of Bir al-Hajjah. In the process the Syrians cleared the surrounding Salhub valley. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of as-Suknah.

On September 19th (19/9/18) the two Syrian axis united at Bir al-Hijjah. They also eliminated an ISIL cell which held be holed up on Abtar Mountain just to the south of Palmyra.

Since then I've not seen any further reports of either Syrian or ISIL operations in the area. However I have fallen somewhat behind with my research.

The nature of the terrain and the operation means that this area will need near constant re-sweeping. To identify and eliminate any ISIL camps which may have been established since the last sweep. It is the type of operation where surveillance drones and satellites are extremely useful.

Alongside military operations the Syrians have also been engaging in negotiations over the fate of civilians and armed groups holed up in the Ruqban Camp. This included meeting with local tribal leaders on September 29th (29/9/18) to negotiate the acceptance of the standard Amnesty agreement which would allow occupants of the camp to return home.

These negotiations have been accompanied by various rumours of groups offering their surrender and leaving the area including the Bobby Sands base and Ruqban camp.

On September 17th (17/9/18) it was reported that the Brigade Martyrs of Qaryatayn/Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn would leave for the Garvaghy Road area. Where presumably they will be absorbed into the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

Alongside Maghawir al-Thawra Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn are one of the Islamist groups trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base. It has since been confirmed that they have indeed transferred to Garvaghy Road. Including family members they total around 3,000.

On September 21st (21/9/18) it was rumoured that 700 fighters from Maghawir al-Thawra along with 2,500 family members would also quit the Bobby Sands base for Garvaghy Road. Maghawir al-Thawra have strenuously denied this rumour.

Maghawir al-Thawra did though not intervene to stop Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn from leaving. They have also indicated that they would not stop other groups leaving under the terms of an Amnesty agreement.

On September 24th (24/9/18) an agreement was reached 400 ISIL fighters plus an unspecified number of family members to leave the Ruqban camp for the Sudetenland. Where they have joined their fellow fighters under the protection of the Army of Conquest.

Within the Sudetenland the Army of Conquest and the Turkish Intelligence Agency (MIT) have been mounting weekly, supposedly "popular" protests.

These protests have increasingly demanded that the UN massively increases its aid supplies to the armed groups within the Ruqban camp. Specifically to prevent those armed groups surrendering to the Syrians.

The fact that the Army of Conquest and the MIT have felt able to make such demands of the UN is likely a factor in why UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura stepped down on October 17th (17/10/18).

It is also likely a factor in why the UN Chief of Humanitarian Access to Syria, Jan Egeland stepped down the following day. October 18th (18/10/18).

17:20 on 22/10/18 (UK date).

Shock News: Donald Trump's Gun Shy.

On October 2nd (2/10/18) Turkey claimed that Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi had been murdered. Specifically the Saudi national had been murdered while visiting the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.

I covered this on Monday (15/10/18); https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/does-anyone-remember-manchester-bombing.html

And again on Wednesday (17/10/18); https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/soon-sultan-mehmed-shall-conquer.html

The only thing I would like to add is that Khashoggi frequently, including through the Washington Post, advocated for Saudi Arabia to adopt; "Moderate Islam."

Khashoggi defined moderate Islam as the type practiced by the Muslim Brotherhood. An organisation of which he was a member.

Specifically Khashoggi subscribed to the teachings of Muslim Bortherhood ideologue Yusuf al-Qaradawi.

You may remember that back in 2003 the US invaded Iraq. They then immediately ran into a lot of problems. Often in the form of suicide bombers.

At the same time Russia was also facing a lot of problems with suicide bombers. This included the new phenomenon of female suicide bombers known as; "Black Widows." The widows of Muslim men killed in the Chechen war. These Black Widows were largely responsible for the September 2004 Beslan School Massacre.

This massive increase in Islamist terror groups adopting suicide bombing as a tactic stems in no small part from a Fatwa or religious order Yusuf al-Qaradawi issued in 2003.

In it al-Qaradawi described suicide bombings to not only be legitimate. He declared it to be a duty of all Muslims. A duty they could not refuse.

In 2007 the Washington Post did a profile on al-Qaradawi and this new wave of suicide attacks. In it they declared al-Qaradawi to be; "The New Face of Terror."

I can only assume there was a significant management change at the Washington Post between 2007 and when they decided to employ Khashoggi in 2017.

Unfortunately by the time I came to cover the Khashoggi story the US had already decided how it was going to manage the issue.

On Monday (15/10/18) US President Donald Trump dispatched US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday (16/10/18). Then on to Turkey on Wednesday (17/10/18)

Yesterday (19/10/18) the US' strategy to manage the story was revealed for the World to see.

The US' approach to this has been the same as its approach to everything in the huge division between Saudi Arabia and Qatar over the Muslim Brotherhood;

Avoid making a decision in order to keep the US military base Udeid in Qatar open at all costs.

President Trump is also keen for the intensity to leave the story prior to the November 7th (7/11/18) US mid-terms. The Democrat supporting media have hardly hesitated in using the Khashoggi case to mobilise voters.

The US' plan involves Saudi Arabia accepting responsibility for the killing. However blaming it on the; "Rogue Killers" President Trump suggested on Monday (15/10/18). Then after a period of about a month Saudi Arabia will make a payment to keep the Turkish economy afloat for the next six months or so.

This is a very common approach to problems in Arab societies. Particularly ones ruled by Monarchs.

In western societies the social contract between a government and its people is that if there is a disaster of some kind an investigation will be held to get to the truth. Then changes will be made based on that truth.

In Arab societies the social contract is that when disaster strikes the government - or often Monarch - will pay out a large sum in compensation. In return the people agree not to demand the truth.

A prime example of this would be the anti-corruption probe Saudi Arabia conducted in October 2017. This saw some 500 senior figures including 11 Princes being arrested on various corruption charges. However rather than being put on trial they were all released after paying out large sums in compensation.

I also would say that it's not a particularly Arab thing. The US has recently been rocked by the Me Too movement. This seems to have been a long succession of powerful people - Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstien, Asia Argento etc - making large payouts to make claims of sexual misconduct go away.

Then of course you have the Black Lives Matter movement over police shootings. This began with the shooting of Michael Brown in August 2014. Regardless of whether these cases uncover evidence of wrongdoing they always seem to involve a large payout to the relatives of the dead.

To see how much credibility Saudi Arabia is giving to this script America is forcing them to read I think you only need to look at the timing of the announcement.

It came at around 01:00 in Saudi Arabia. Around 45 minutes before President Trump was due to attend a; "Round Table" style media appearance in Arizona, US. From there President Trump travelled to campaign rally.

This American version of events claims that Khashoggi was being interrogated by security officials. He then became violent and was placed in a choke-hold. Resulting in his death.

Saudi Arabia announced this almost at the moment Hillary Clinton was taking to the stage for a book launch by Gwen Carr. The mother of Eric Garner - the famous; "I Can't Breathe" man.

In July 2014 Eric Garner died of congenital heart condition in New York City, US. The Black Lives Matter movement however adopted the case claiming Garner had been murdered by police officers who placed him in a choke-hold. New York City paid the family US$5.9m in compensation.

Now the Saudis have made the announcement President Trump is hoping the story will run out of steam and the pressure will ease.

Obviously I am breaking my rule about working on Saturdays. So people have been briefed. However does anyone seriously think CNN, the Washington  Post or the New York Times are going to give Donald Trump a break?

Whether the US news media now back off the Khashoggi story or not is really immaterial. In showing weakness like this President Trump is merely setting himself up for the next scandal.

In early October the Honduran government demanded the US gives them more money to help stem the tide of illegal migration. A tactic they seem to have taken out of Turkey's book. President Trump refused.

Honduras has responded by sending this so-called migrant caravan through Guatemala and Mexico the US. In a sort of classic protection racket shakedown.

Now President Trump has shown just how weak he is this migrant caravan looks set to arrive on the US border days for the mid-term election.

No matter how justified police and soldiers beating women and children with billy clubs is never a good look politically.

11:25 on 20/10/18 (UK date).

Soon Sultan Mehmed Shall Conquer Congress.

I am aware that it has been several days since I have tackled the conflict in Syria directly. The mountain of paper piling up in my in-tray is a bit of a clue.

However on Monday (15/10/18) the demilitarised zone (DMZ) around the Sudetenland area of Syria went into effect. As a result some of the main players in the Sudetenland have shifted their battles onto a more meta level.

The main part of this has been Turkish claims that Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered by Saudi Arabia. In the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey on October 2nd (2/10/18).

I covered this in detail here; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/10/does-anyone-remember-manchester-bombing.html

At so much length that even to the person writing it by the end words had started to lose all meaning.

The central motivation behind Turkey's claims is regional split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

In June 2017 Saudi Arabia imposed a total blockade on Qatar. This involved not only the complete breaking off of political and economic ties Saudi Arabia also completely sealed Qatar's borders and expelled its citizens.

One of the main reason for this split was Qatar and Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood. A terrorist group which is very active in Syria. Particularly through the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are very active in the Sudetenland.

As soon as the Saudi blockade began Turkey stepped in to support Qatar. The two nations are allied through their support for the Muslim Brotherhood. In terms of critical food imports, and particularly milk,  the Saudi blockade left Turkey as really Qatar's sole trading partner.

In August 2018 the Turkish economy collapsed. This forced Qatar to support Turkey by bailing it out to the tune of US$15bn.

That situation is completely unsustainable. While Qatar has deep pockets they're not deep enough to withstand the Saudi blockade while at the same time propping up the Turkish economy. Turkey being a nation of around 80m people compared to Qatar's 2.5m people.

The unsustainability of this situation has made sure that both Qatar and Turkey are now absolutely desperate to enlist international support against Saudi Arabia. In order to force the lifting of the blockade.

While Qatar's hand has been forced it is a particularly good time for Turkey to try and enlist international support.

On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the US will be holding its mid-term elections for control of both houses of Congress. The US legislative branch.

Under Democrat President Barack Obama the US was extremely supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood. Under Republican President Donald Trump the US has been far less supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood.

So Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan is absolutely desperate for the Democrats to take control of Congress in the mid-terms. Not least because he hopes it will see the lifting the block the Republican controlled Senate has placed on sale of the F-35 jets to Turkey.

Already US Democrats have responded to Turkey's claims by focusing on President Trump's supposed links to Saudi Arabia. Particularly though his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

This is something they've been conditioned to do. From the moment of his appointment Qatar has been briefing Special Prosecutor Robert Muller on Kushner's supposed ties to Saudi Arabia.

Apparently now it's not just Russia that rigged the 2016 US Presidential Election. It's an elaborate conspiracy involving Russia, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) all working together. It seems US voters didn't have a say in the matter at all.

The claims by Qatari intelligence are being laundered through Mueller's team by a network of new outlets. Including the Washington Post which Khashoggi wrote for, the New York Times and CNN. CNN in particular is pushing the Khashoggi claims really hard. 

In March 2018 the Erdogan regime forced the sale of the Dogan Holding Group by demanding billions of dollars in dubious back taxes. It was sold for US$890m to the Demiroren Holding Group which is closely allied to the Erdogan family.

Amongst its many holdings Demiroren Holding Group's media outlets include CNN Turk. A franchise of CNN. We are all still waiting for CNN to confirm exactly how much money the Erdogan regime pays it each year.

Turkey's allegations regarding Khashoggi follow almost exactly the same tactics US Democrats used in their ultimately failed effort to block the appointment of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS).

The allegation is intentionally so vague that it is impossible to disprove. This leaves the accused desperately trying to prove that they have not done something which has not happened.

Even the friends of Judge Kavanaugh's accuser not only failed to corroborate her claims but openly contradicted them. However Democrats and their friends in the media seem to have adopted the policy of not just; "Guilty Until Proven Innocent" but; "Still Guilty, Even Once Proven Innocent."

What makes it so particularly difficult for Saudi Arabia to disprove Turkey's claim is the day Turkey chose to claim the murder happened. This was the day that Saudi Arabia had brought in a specialist team to upgrade security at their Consulate. Work that included taking the buildings electronic systems, including CCTV offline.

The reason why Saudi Arabia has been forced to upgrade security at its Consulate is that under Erdogan Turkey has come to believe that the rules of the 1961 Vienna Convention of the Status of Diplomatic Relations no longer apply to them.

This has lead to a massive increase in violence and threats towards diplomatic persons and missions across Turkey.

In the summer of 2016 Turkey laid military siege to United States Air Force (USAF) base Incilik. Former President Obama's refusal to punish Turkey for that is a big part of the reason why Erdogan is desperate to see the Democrats back in power in the US.

Turkey is currently holding three US diplomatic staff hostage in prison. In complete violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention.

In total Turkey is currently holding 19 US citizens hostage. Including NASA scientist Serkan Golge.

Only on October 12th (12/10/18) were the US able to free Andrew Brunson. The twentieth US citizen being held hostage by Turkey.

Despite President Trump's claims Brunson was only freed because the US did a deal with Erdogan. In return for Brunson's release Trump agreed to get Israel to release Turkish spy Ebru Ozkan. 

Ebru Ozkan was released on July 16th (16/7/18). In return Brunson was supposed to be released on August 20th (20/8/18). The date of his next scheduled Court appearance. At that Court appearance Turkey reneged on the deal and simply refused to release Brunson.

To emphasise the, frankly, big "F*ck You!" to America that night Turkey conducted a drive-by shooting on the US Embassy in Ankara.

In his efforts to influence the US mid-term elections Erdogan doesn't mind this story being told in full.

The fact the US not only did do a deal to see Brunson released but also get ripped off on the deal makes President Trump look bad. US Democrats will certainly leap upon the fact that President Trump has lied about not doing a deal.

To a certain audience getting Ozkan released certainly doesn't make Erdogan look bad. Ozkan's mission in Jerusalem was to coordinate violence in response to President Trump's decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

That decision by President Trump has I think been condemned by all quarters. Particularly US Democrats. 

So you would think that Erdogan claiming responsibility for resisting President Trump would make him popular with those US Democrats. You would certainly think it would make him popular with Palestinians and Arabs.

I though have been at this long enough to know that Erdogan doesn't give a damn about the Palestinians or the Arabs he's been killing by the hundreds of thousands. All Erdogan cares about is building his new Ottoman Empire.

I'm sure people also appreciate that it is possible to object to the way that Erdogan is attempting to exploit an situation without supporting the situation itself.

Erdogan seems so confident that the story of the Brunson deal and the attack on the US Embassy will mobilise Democrats to vote at the mid-terms he's doubled down on the idea. And then some.

On Monday (15/10/18) Turkish security forces informed Iran of a plan to attack the Iranian Embassy in Ankara with a suicide bomber. This forced the evacuation of the Iranian Ambassador to Turkey along with the evacuation and closure of the building.

One of the key issues in the split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is over Iran. Saudi Arabia absolutely despises them while Qatar are nominally allied with them.

Former President Obama likes to claim that one of his big achievements was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Which is more commonly known as the; "Iran Nuclear Deal." 

President Trump has taken great pride in scrapping the Iran nuclear deal. 

By rolling back what they see as a key part of Obama's legacy this has infuriated US Democrats. Despite the fact the JCPOA only scrapped the global sanctions Obama was stupid enough to impose on Iran in the first place.

Through the war in Syria and Iraq I've actually worked quite closely with Iran over the past four years. So I am probably more friendly with Iran than anyone else in the western world. 

The fact I am defending Saudi Arabia from what I think are entirely false allegations is really giving me and others a lot of headaches.

President Trump's National Security Adviser John Bolton is famously an absolute lunatic. 

Since his appointment the US has lurched ever further towards insane hostility towards Iran. Including by providing ISIL with US military protection as they occupy the Ruqban IDP camp in Syria.

US Democrats are almost as enraged by Bolton's lunatic stance on Iran as they are by the rolling back of former President Obama's tawdry legacy.

So you would think that by highlighting Qatar any Turkey's nominal and self-serving support for Iran against Saudi Arabia would make Erdogan a hero of the US Democrats, mobilising them to rush to the polls at the mid-terms. 

At around 17:45 on 17/10/18 (UK date) I'll tidy and pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 18:55 on 17/10/18 (UK date) to add;

Yesterday (16/10/18) it was the Israeli Embassy in Ankara which came under attack.

A 45 year old farmer was shot in the legs after driving over multiple cars with a tractor. He was en route to the Israeli Embassy where he presumably intended to smash the vehicle into the building.

Again it is good for Erdogan to present himself as an enemy of Israel. I don't know how US Jews feel about it but Erdogan certainly considers the Democrats to be an extremely anti-Semitic party. 

The fact a tractor was used highlights Turkey's role as Qatar's really sole supplier of agricultural goods. Also, let's just say that the moment anyone pushes back against Turkey's Khashoggi claims with even slightest pressure. Well, it really starts to wobble.

Today (17/10/18) it was a school in the Russian region of Crimea that was attacked.

Here a gunman set of an explosive device before opening fire. Killing at least 19 people.

A very important figure within Ottoman Turkish history is Sultan Mehmed II. He is so important that one of the key brigades of the UTA is named the Sultan Mehmed Brigade.

Sultan Mehmed II is often called; "Mehmed the Conquerer." With a name like that I hope I don't have to explain to you what he is famous for. 

One of the places that Mehmed the Conquerer conquered was Crimea and parts of what is modern day Ukraine. This sits to the north of modern day Turkey, just across the Black Sea.

One of the biggest thing former President Obama did in support of the Muslim Brotherhood was done in Ukraine. The US backed Nazis to overthrow the Ukrainian government. 

Once the government had been overthrown those Nazis set about trying to exterminate Ukraine's ethnically Russian population. Plunging the country into civil war.

The people of Crimea took one look at this and voted to rejoin Russia.

Former President Obama however used it to impose sanctions against Russia in support of the Muslim Brotherhood. After all no US President could just say that they're imposing sanctions to support Al Qaeda and ISIL. What with it being high treason.

The Ottoman conquest means that there is still a large ethnically Turkish population within Ukraine and particularly Crimea. Since certainly 2014 the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) has worked with these Tartars to conduct terror attacks against Russia. Most notably the 2014 attack on Crimea's power grid.

US Democrats believe that the 2016 Presidential Election was stolen from them and Hillary Clinton by a vast Russian conspiracy. After all its much easier on the soul to tell yourself story than accept that people just don't like you.

So you would think that by presenting himself as an enemy of Russia Erdogan would become a hero of US Democrats. Motivating them to flock to the polls at the mid-term election.

However there is also a section of the US Republican Party that is extremely anti-Russian. It is no coincidence that this group is also extremely supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood. On more than one occasion visiting their troops in the Sudetenland and calling for the US to support them.

This section of the US Republican used to be lead by Senator John McCain. However following his death it has been led by Senator Lindsey Graham. McCain's long-term friend and deputy.

On Tuesday (16/10/18) Senator Graham gave a very bizarre interview with Fox News. 

The majority of it was spent with Graham pledging to take a DNA test on live TV to prove that he's not part-Iranian. Apparently being part-Iranian is the most disgusting thing Senator Graham can think of.

However Senator Graham was asked about the Khashoggi case. He declared that Turkey's claims were entirely true and Saudi Arabia had murdered Khashoggi. He went on to declare Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) to be a wrecking ball and demand that the US overthrew him.

I assume Senator Graham is furious that MBS jailed Prince Bandar bin Sultan. The head of Saudi intelligence who was linked to the 9/11 attacks. 

The same head of Saudi intelligence who threatened to attack the 2014 Winter Olympics and did indeed bomb the Russian city of Volgograd. Twice.

So presenting himself as an enemy of Russia you would think that Erdogan would become a hero of the Lindsey Graham wing of the Republican Party. Motivating them to heap further pressure on President Trump. Bringing the Republicans crashing down at the mid-terms.

The gunman in the Crimea school attack has been identified as Vladislav Roslyakov. An 18 year old former student of the school who died at the scene.

A profile that is remarkably similar to Nikolas Cruz. The 19 year old former student awaiting trial over the so-called Parkland Shooting on February 14th 2018 (14/2/18).

The Parkland Shooting occurred on the eve of then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Turkey. The purpose of this visit was to force Erdogan to withdraw his occupation forces from first the Afrin Canton and then the Garvaghy Road areas of Syria.

With its focus on the Armalite Rifle the purpose of the Parkland Shooting was to ambush Tillerson. Completely undermining him at the meeting with Erdogan. 

This worked so well that Tillerson ended up refusing to bring an American translator into the meeting. The implication being that elements of the US civil service simply can't be trusted when it comes to Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood.

As a result Erdogan did not pull his occupation forces out of either Afrin Canton or Garvaghy Road. 

In fact Erdogan went on to declare victory in Afrin Canton in March 18th (18/3/18). On the first non-working day (24/3/18) US Democrats held a huge victory rally for Erdogan in Washington D.C. Under the banner; "March for Our Lives." Inspired by the Parkland Shooting.

Today (17/1018) current US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been visiting Erdogan in Turkey. The purpose of this visit has been for Turkey to either put up or shut up regarding their Khashoggi claims.

Reminding Secretary Pompeo of the Parkland Shooting and Rex Tillerson's visit back in March is a big power play by Erdogan. While CNN are pushing Erdogan's Khashoggi claims Erdogan is positioning his forces in Syria to attack Shangri-La. Including the US troops stationed there.

The tall tales of Crimea's Tartars are well known to fans of the Eurovision Song Contest. The 2016 Song Contest was won by Jamela with her ditty about Joesph Stalin's - a Georgian - purges of 1944.

The main theme of the 2018 Song Contest was; "How did we all manage to get that so horribly wrong."

Hungary's entry played about with the moral panic that America experienced following the Columbine School Shooting. It compared it to the moral panic Russia currently experiences regarding gay rights.

Ironically Russia's moral panic has moved onto actual school shootings. A so-called; "Columbine Culture." That's what CNN are going to be blaming today's shooting on.

You would think that by presenting himself as an enemy of Russia in this way Erdogan would be able to enlist the support of the; "Gay Rights For Gays!" mob which seem to be so vocal at the Eurovision Song Contest. 

In much the same way US Democrats enlisted the support of the same Gay Rights For Gays mob in 2014 and hope to do so again at the mid-terms.

After all its not like we've all forgotten the last time Erdogan allowed a Gay Rights event to be held in Turkey.

So sadly I'm not joking here.

I seriously think we need to go through the US Democrats mid-term election platform line-by-line. 

And double security at any and all locations which might be of symbolic value to them. 

20:30 on 17/10/18 (UK date).
 

Does Anyone Remember the Manchester Bombing?

With obvious apologises.

After all I'm not talking about December 1992 bombing in Parsonage Gardens. Nor am I talking about the June 1996 bombing on Corporation Street.

Instead I'm talking about the events of May 22nd 2017 (22/5/17). When the Manchester Evening News Arena (MENA) was bombed during a concert by US popstar Ariana Grande. This killed 22 civilians and saw a further 112 hospitalised with serious injuries.

The bombing occurred shortly after the March 22nd (22/3/17) Westminster Bridge runover and marauding knife attack. Which killed 5 and saw a further 49 hospitalised with serious injuries. It also occurred just 12 days before the June 3rd (3/6/17) London Bridge runover and marauding knife attack. Which killed 8 and saw a further 48 hospitalised with serious injuries.

These attacks occurred at a time when Britain was starting to take a position of opposition to the actions of the Muslim Brotherhood and particularly its Turkish branch in Syria. Groups such as the United Turkmen Army (UTA) and the Army of Islam (JAI). A reversal of a long term position of British support for these groups.

Probably the most high profile example of this shifting position was the killing on June 16th 2016 (16/6/16) of Jo Cox, Member of Parliament (MP) for the Labour Party.

In her role as an MP Jo Cox was the co-chair of the Parliamentary Friends of Syria group. A role she used to give political and material support to Muslim Brotherhood groups active within Syria. Particularly the White Helmets group.

The White Helmets are a propaganda arm of Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest coalition. Al Qaeda are a declared enemy of Britain which it has been fighting since 2001. So at the very least Jo Cox was guilty of the crime of high treason against Britain.

There is also the precedent set in case the of the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Liberian warlord Charles Taylor. This holds that those who provide material support to groups engaging in Crimes Against Humanity are guilty of those Crimes Against Humanity. Even if they did not personally order or carry them out.

So alongside high treason against Britain Jo Cox also committed multiple Crimes Against Humanity. Such as Genocide and Cruel and Inhumane Treatment by way of sexual slavery.

As such Jo Cox was entirely lawfully killed. Provided a reasonable person would believe that her death would prevent her giving speeches in Parliament in support of the Muslim Brotherhood groups or appearing at fundraising events for them.

Unfortunately the British police have decided they would rather have a Labour government than a Conservative one.

So they chose not to investigate the killing of Jo Cox properly. Instead choosing to wrongly convict Tommy Mair of her murder. Because that version of events better fitted the political position of the Labour Party.

As a result it needed to become public in February 2018 that far from being the hero the Labour Party consider him to be Jo Cox's widower - Brendan Cox is a sex offender.

The Westminster Bridge, Manchester and London Bridge terror attacks also occurred during possibly the most politically important period in Britain's modern history.

On June 23rd 2016 (23/6/16) the British people, through a public referendum, voted to leave the European Union (EU). On March 29th (29/3/17) Britain formally left the EU. Pending a two year notice period which is set to expire on March 29th 2019 (29/3/19).

In preparation for this difficult time the governing Conservative Party called a General Election for June 8th 2017 (8/6/17). The objective of calling this early election was to boost their slender majority of just 7 Parliamentary seats. A larger majority would give Britain a stronger hand in negotiations with the EU.

The Manchester bombing was carried out by Salman Abedi. A British born Libyan who returned to Libya to join the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) terror group. Abedi had been transported to Libya and trained in bomb making by the British government. He was returned to Britain by the Royal Navy in 2014.

This was done as part of British support for Qatar's efforts to seize control of Libya's oil fields by overthrowing the Libyan government of Muammer Qaddafi.

This was a wholly illegal war that the British Conservative government of the time were more than happy to join. Due to Conservatives like David Cameron, Thomas Tugendhat, Gavin Williams and others soft hands getting all sweaty with excitement at the prospect of sending other people to fight a war.

Although David Cameron had been deposed as Prime Minister and replaced by Theresa May by May 2017 voters tend not to make that sort of distinction. So a Conservative trained terrorist murdering British citizens in a British city was an extremely bad look for the Conservative Party in the middle of an election campaign.

The London Bridge attack of June 3rd (3/6/17) made the Conservatives look even worse. It came just six days after Prime Minister May reduced the UK terror threat telling us we were all safe again.

All three terror attacks and particularly the Manchester bombing required a huge response from the emergency services. Including the National Health Service (NHS) which is so cherished by the British electorate.

The Conservative government of Prime Minister Cameron had spent the previous 7 years slashing the budgets of those emergency services. Explaining why the police would prefer a Labour government. Public officials in Labour controlled Manchester certainly did not hesitate to speculate that Conservative cuts may have harmed the emergency response to the bombing.

As such the Manchester bombing was carried out by Qatar as a nation state. The objective being to influence the outcome of the General Election and by extension Britain's exit from the EU.

Ideally Qatar would want to put the Labour Party of Jo Cox in power. However failing that they would settle for weakening the Conservative government and by extension weaken Britain's hand in negotiations with the EU.

With Britain paralysed by the Brexit negotiations it would certainly be in no position to lead a robust opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood and particularly its Turkish branch in Syria. If Britain makes a complete mess of the Brexit negotiations it risks permanently losing its status as a global power.

Sadly Qatar succeeded. Significant sections of the British electorate were stupid enough to vote for the Labour Party at the June 2017 election.

As a result the Conservative Party lost its majority. It is now remains in power as a weak minority government propped up by a complex confidence and supply arrangement the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

The problem is that the DUP are an extremely hardline Northern Irish Unionist party. Their reputation for obstinace stems from their founder Dr Reverend Ian Paisley. He quickly earned the nickname; "Dr No." This isn't a Republican versus Unionist issue. Even the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) think the DUP can be too extreme.

One of the main sticking points in Brexit negotiations is the issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland which will remain part of the EU and Northern Ireland which will leave as part of the UK. The creation of such a border is strictly forbidden under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Which is part of the reason why the DUP have such a strong, deep ideological desire to create such a border.

Unfortunately the DUP's strong desire for this so-called; "Hard Border" bears no relation to how the border between the Republic and the North has ever functioned. Even at the height of the Northern Irish Troubles which the Good Friday Agreement ended the border between the Republic and the North was always considered more of a suggestion than a rule.

In talking about how closely the economies of the Republic and the North are intertwined I mentioned the North West Region Cross Border Group (NWRCBG). This treats the north-west of the island of Ireland as a single economic area. It was established in 1976. At the height of the Troubles.

During the Troubles the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) became famous for setting off car bombs made out of fertiliser. Such as the one they detonated in Manchester in June 1996.

The specific brand of fertiliser they used was often; "Net Nitrate." This was produced under government subsidy in the Republic. PIRA got hold of it in the North because Unionist farmers were smuggling it across the border on an industrial scale because it was so much cheaper than the non-subsidised version.

When the DUP are not involved the EU is actually very good at coming up with compromises to solve problems such as this. The prime example being Cyprus.

In 1974 Turkey invaded Cyprus. It continues to illegally occupy the northern part of the island. In 2008 Cyprus joined the EU.

This creates the somewhat odd situation where the entire island of Cyprus is considered part of the EU. However at the same time the northern part of the island is not considered part of the EU. Because it is under Turkish occupation.

Goods flow pretty smoothly between northern and southern Cyprus. Goods from southern Cyprus flow into Turkey and goods from northern Cyprus flow into the wider EU. Customs checks are focused on stopping goods from the wider EU flowing into Turkey and vice versa.

Turkey is of course part of the EU customs union which British remoaners are desperate for Britain to stay part of. Despite the Turks hating every second of their customs union membership.

Due to its significantly weakened status following the June 2017 election Britain has not taken any firm action to punish Qatar for the Manchester bombing or for interfering in the election.

Qatar's neighbour Saudi Arabia though has taken very harsh action to punish Qatar.

In June 2017 Saudi Arabia imposed a total blockade on Qatar. This involved not only the complete breaking off of political and economic ties Saudi Arabia also completely sealed Qatar's borders and expelled its citizens.

Saudi Arabia is currently in the process of building a canal between it and Qatar. In order to physically separate Qatar from Saudi Arabia and cut it off from the entire Arabian Peninsula. On its side of the canal Saudi Arabia intends to build a nuclear waste dump.

So this diplomatic spat has certainly gone far beyond sanctioning the bank accounts of a few mid-level government officials.

Obviously nations don't take action that widespread for just one reason.

Saudi Arabia's main dispute with Qatar is over its rather insane hatred of Iran.

Saudi Arabia views Iran as the opponent preventing it from exerting complete control over the entire region. Qatar thinks that but maintaining relations with Iran it can circumvent Saudi Arabia. Allowing it to exert complete control over the entire region.

Coming a close second though is Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Particularly the action it takes to destabilise Libya, Egypt and Syria. The Manchester bombing was simply the straw that broke the camel's back.

As soon as the Saudi blockade took effect Turkey stepped into to prop up its Muslim Brotherhood ally Qatar. In terms of crucial imports such as food, and in particular milk, Turkey is really now Qatar's sole trading partner.

In August 2018 though the Turkish economy began to collapse. The main element of which was the Turkish currency, the Lira, losing around 20% of its value in the space of a week.

The collapse of the Turkish economy is not due to US sanctions on two Turkish government officials, steel tariffs or anything else US President Donald Trump has done. The primary cause is a wider trend in the global economy.

In 2008 the developed World went through an economic crisis. This led to interest rates being slashed to next to nothing. As a result investors started putting their money into developing nations such as Turkey with higher interest rates. This massive inflow of investment actually caused the Brazilian economy to overheat to the point it exploded.

Now, particularly the US economy has recovered and become stronger than ever. As a result interest rates are rising again. This has prompted investors to take their money out of the US stockmarket and developing nations and put it into more stable developed nation's bonds.

Alongside Turkey this shift in investment has also caused problems for South Africa and particularly Argentina. Turkey though is particularly exposed because President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan is as corrupt as he is delusional.

Representing the Justice & Development Party (AKP) Erdogan has stayed in power through largescale infrastructure spending. Things like the bridge over the Bosporus. This has all been funded by banks giving out cheap loans to Erdogan's cronies. As a result Turkey can't raise interest rates without bankrupting Erdogan's cronies and exposing the myth of Turkish economic strength.

So Erdogan simply lies about it. Claiming that all economists throughout history are wrong. Rather than controlling inflation raised interest rates apparently cause inflation.

Turkey's economic collapse became so bad that on August 15th (15/8/18) it was forced to accept a US$15bn bailout from Qatar. At the time both Qatar and Turkey were open about the fact this was the Muslim Brotherhood paying back Turkey for the support it had given Qatar in June 2017.

The first condition attached to this Qatari bailout was that on September 13th (13/9/18) Turkey was forced to raise interest rates by a whopping 6.25% to 24%. By contrast the US interest rate is 2%.

Although I have serious doubts about Erdogan's mental competence Turkey and certainly Qatar know this situation is unsustainable. Although Qatar has deep pockets it can't hold out against the Saudi blockade while at the same time propping up the Turkish economy.

This means that both Qatar and Turkey are now absolutely desperate to enlist international support in pressuring Saudi Arabia to lift the blockade.

On October 2nd (2/10/18) Qatar and Turkey set about trying to enlist that international support. By inventing a story of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi being murdered in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.

This is very reminiscent of the May 2018 case of Arkady Babchenko. A journalist Ukraine claimed had been murdered by Russia.

Despite the Ukrainians presenting 'evidence' including photographs and video of Babchenko's corpse people very quickly called bullsh*t on this. Forcing the Ukrainians to admit that Babchenko was alive and they'd simply made the whole thing up. In an effort to enlist international support against Russia.

The main part of Turkey and Qatar's accusation is that Turkey has CCTV footage of Jamal Khashoggi entering the Saudi Consulate. They claim that they don't have CCTV footage of him leaving and have demanded that Saudi Arabia prove that he is still alive.

This accusation goes against all widely accept notions of justice. Where the burden of proof is entirely on the person making the accusation.

It is after all impossible to prove that you haven't done something which hasn't happened. For example I can't prove that Star Wars isn't really happening in a galaxy far, far away.

It is particularly difficult for Saudi Arabia to prove this negative because of the day Qatar and Turkey are claiming Khashoggi's death occurred.

It used to be that diplomatic relations between nations were governed by the 1961 Vienna Convention.

This places absolute protection on diplomats and diplomatic premises such as Embassies and Consulates. These rules are so strict that simply failing to protect a diplomat or diplomatic premises let alone murdering an Ambassador is grounds for war.

Then on September 11th 2012 (11/9/12) US Ambassador Christopher Stevens was murdered in Benghazi, Libya. By Ansar al-Sharia - a Muslim Brotherhood affiliated terror group.

In response nothing happened. There was no punishment.

Then on December 19th 2016 (19/12/16) Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov was murdered in Ankara, Turkey. By a member of Erdogan's personal police protection unit.

In response nothing happened. There was no punishment.

As a result the Muslim Brotherhood and particularly Erdogan have started to think that these rules do not apply to them.

Turkey is currently holding three US diplomatic staff in prison. Only of Friday (12/10/18) did they agree to release Andrew Brunson - one of 16 US citizens Turkey is currently holding hostage.

As part of an agreement with the US Turkey was supposed to release Brunson on August 20th (20/8/18). Turkey broke the agreement and chose to underline its hostility by opening fire on the US Embassy in Ankara.

Given the Muslim Brotherhood and Erdogan's utter contempt for the accepted norms of behaviour all nations have been increasing the security of their diplomats and diplomatic premises in Turkey. This is particularly true of Saudi Arabia which is almost in a state of war with Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Part of Saudi Arabia's efforts to increase security at its diplomatic mission to Turkey was to fly in a specialist team on October 2nd (2/10/18). In Saudi Arabia - like much of the Muslim world - Friday is the weekend. That team's work involved taking the Consulates electronic systems including CCTV offline while it was upgraded.

Of course Turkey has claimed this 15 man team was an assassination squad. However Turkey is also claiming that these men flew out of the country on 15 different aircraft at 15 different times. In fact they fly out on two aircraft at two separate times.

Although its only a small detail to get wrong it shows that Erdogan no longer feels he has to put in any effort to make his lies seem convincing. After all any Turkish journalist who dares to question Erdogan is either shot or put in prison. Can Dundar was actually shot while being sent to prison.

Likewise Turkey have claimed that Khashoggi's murder was recorded by his Apple Watch. The problem is that Apple Watches need to be within around 100ft or connected to the same Wi-Fi network as the iPhone it is paired with.

A key part of Turkey's claim is that Khashoggi had given his iPhone to his fiance before entering the Consulate. Despite Erdogan's justice & development Turkey lacks the communications infrastructure to allow Apple Watches to connect directly to a cellular network.

Turkey also claimed that Khashoggi's killers used his fingerprint to unlock his Apple Watch. No Apple Watch made has fingerprint recognition technology

Turkey has gone on to claim that it has a team of experts working around clock to crack the security code on Khashoggi's iPhone. Meaning we're supposed to believe that he gave his iPhone to his fiance to call him but didn't give her the security code.

Some have suggested Turkey's claims about the Apple Watch are simply made up to provide cover for bugs and other electronic surveillance devices Turkey had in the Saudi Consulate.

That though would only further explain why Saudi Arabia flew in a specialist team to upgrade the Consulates security systems. It also shows the level of hostility between Turkey and Saudi Arabia

Whether they were made by an Apple Watch or electronic bug Turkey is refusing to share these apparent recordings of Khashoggi's murder with anyone. We're just supposed to take Erdogan's word for it.

The content of these recordings which Turkey claims to have are said to be particularly gruesome. Full of the harrowing scenes which are often included in horror movies to shock and grab attention.

Although not a forensic expert I've seen enough TV detective shows to know this isn't the sort of murder you'd plan to carry out in the Ambassador's office or the main conference room. Instead you'd do it in somewhere like the kitchens or a utility room. Anywhere tiled rather than carpeted.

That begs the question of why on earth was Turkey bugging the Consulate's kitchen?

If you were bugging a Consulate you focus on the important rooms where there is intelligence to be gathered. Such as the Ambassador's office, the conference or the communications.

If Turkey has had the ability to bug all of those rooms and still had time to bug the kitchens. Well, then this must be the most spied upon Consulate in diplomatic history.

Turkey has not confirmed whether it has audio, video or both types of recordings. It certainly hasn't shown them to anyone. As a result it is not really possible for me to do anything other than speculate on them.

I should point out though that it is extremely common to fake video and audio footage of brutal murders. It is after all the entire basis of the TV and Movie industry.

For example example Rose McGowan, who was brutally murdered in the 1997 movie; "Scream." Turns out;  Not really dead.

Erdogan has a long record and spectacular record for falsifying, particularly electronic evidence. The most famous example being the 2011 "Sledgehammer" case.

Here Erdogan claimed a group of military officers were plotting against him and had them jailed. The key piece of evidence was a document produced on Microsoft Word 2007. Which of course didn't exist in 2003 when the plot was supposedly taking place. Eventually all electronic evidence in the case was found to be forged.

Following that embarrassment Erdogan has worked hard to take much tighter control of Turkey's Courts.

Another of Erdogan's ludicrous lies is that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are secretly allies. All the fighting and dying their doing against each other is simply a ruse to disguise this vast conspiracy against Turkey.

Pretty much every week I'm reading Turkish claims that they have video and audio recordings proving this conspiracy between the SDF and ISIL.

At around 17:10 on 15/10/18 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up later. Possibly tomorrow.

Edited at around 18:40 on 15/10/18 (UK date) to add;

Qatar's hand has been forced by having to bail out the Turkish economy. However for Turkey this is a particularly good time to try and enlist international support against Saudi Arabia.

The US mid-term elections are being held on November 6th (6/11/18).

Under Democrat President Barack Obama the US was extremely supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood.

For example the US militarily and politically supported the Muslim Brotherhood's war against Libya.

The US certainly did not move to punish Qatar over the murder of Ambassador Stevens.

In fact they doubled down on their support for the Qatari puppet government in Tripoli against Khalifa Haftar's government in Benghazi. Despite Hafter leading the operation to rescue US citizens.

Under Obama the US even went so far as to cover up Qatar's role. By trying to blame the violence on a movie made by Islamaphobic Republicans.

Likewise under the Democrats the US supported, politically and militarily, the Muslim Brotherhood's operations against Syria. For example in August 2016 the US allowed Turkey to illegally invade and occupy the Garvaghy Road area of Syria. In order to protect ISIL and Al Qaeda's supply lines with Turkey.

The US certainly did not punish Turkey over the murder of Ambassador Karlov. In fact they decided to punished Russia by expelling 35 Russian diplomats on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16).

There are many examples of similar support I can list in what is already a very long post. However I think the one incident which sums up US Democrats support for the Muslim Brotherhood was the response to the November 13th 2016 (13/11/18) ISIL massacres in Paris, France.

In response NATO nations were keen to meet to invoke their Article 5 mutual defence clause. As they did after the US was attacked on September 11th 2001 (11/9/01). This would have forced Erdogan to end his support for Muslim Brotherhood groups or leave NATO.

Obama's response was to refuse an emergency NATO summit. Instead choosing to meet with Erdogan to make clear he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Erdogan. Against NATO.

Under Republican President Trump the US has been far less supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although internal opposition and concerns about a military base Obama foolishly built in Qatar have prevented them from tackling the Muslim Brotherhood threat.

For example on February 15th 2018 (15/2/18) the US Secretary of State visited Turkey. This was intended to be the meeting at which Turkey was forced to end its military occupation of the Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton.

However the day before saw the Parkland school shooting and Democrat demands to ban the AR-15. A rifle of huge significance in Turkey's occupation of Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road.

During the meeting Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller announced the indictment of 13 Russians. Supporting Democrat claims Hillary Clinton's failure to replace President Obama was the result of an elaborate Russian conspiracy.

As they campaign for a so-called; "Blue Wave" at the mid-terms Democrats have already latched onto the Khashoggi story. Paying particular attention to President Trump's links to Saudi Arabia through his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

This is something Democrats have been conditioned to do. Qatar has long worked with Mueller briefing on Kushner specifically. Hardly something you would expect from a Special Prosecutor claiming to be protecting US politics from foreign interference.

Beyond general support for the Muslim Brotherhood Erdogan has something very specific to gain from the Democrats winning control of the US Senate.

Erdogan very much wants to buy the US' brand new F-35 multirole strike aircraft. The main selling point of the F-35 is its stealth technology. It's ability to evade air defence systems.

However Erdogan is also buying the Russian S-400 air defence system. This will allow him to train the S-400 to shoot down the F-35. Fatally undermining NATO's air power for a generation.

Needless to say Republicans in the Senate have blocked the sale of the F-35 to Turkey.

History suggests a Democrat controlled Senate will be much more eager to please Erdogan.

19:15 on 15/10/18 (UK date).

Edited at around 17:55 on 16/10/18 (UK date) to generally tidy the above.