Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 2, Day 2.

A continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/08/operation-featherweight-month-50-week-1_13.html

In that post I wrote about how the Syrians closed the East Ghouta pocket within the Central Syria area.

Directly to the south-west of the Central Syria area you have the Yarmouk River Basin area. Located around the basin of the Yarmouk River this area includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suweida Province. It runs along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel.

The Yarmouk River basin is one of the most politically sensitive regions in the Syria conflict. For a host of reasons.

ISIL are an apocalyptic organisation. That means that their objective from this war is actually to lose it. They believe that defeat will trigger God's return to Earth to lead them in a final, apocalyptic battle. Under God's physical leadership they will be triumphant in that final battle against the unbelievers.

ISIL believe that their defeat which will trigger God's return to Earth will occur within the Yarmouk River Basin. So any battles ISIL fight - and particularly ones they lose - in the Yarmouk River Basin will encourage and excite their followers.

The Yarmouk River Basin was also one of the main battlefields in the 1967 Six Day War between Israel and the Arab states including Syria. This war resulted in a decisive Israeli victory which saw Israel seize and continue to occupy part of the Golan Heights.

Although referred to as the Six Day War this 1967 war between Israel and Syria is technically still going on. Following a second outbreak of fighting in October 1973 a truce was agreed with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) monitoring a disengagement zone between the Israel occupied Golan Heights and the section of the Golan Heights that remain under Syrian control.

As part of this truce there are longstanding and serious restrictions on the size and type of military forces that either party can deploy close to the UNDOF Zone. Neither side are allowed to deploy military forces within the UNDOF Zone.

Allowing Syria to even temporarily deploy forces into and around the UNDOF Zone upends around 45 years of complex and delicate diplomacy.

In their efforts to regain control of the country Syria is being assisted by their allies Hezbollah. A Lebanese group Hezbollah primarily operate in southern Lebanon, right on Israel's northern border. From that position Hezbollah frequently threaten and sometimes attack Israel. Most recently in 2006.

Israel are understandably very opposed to Hezbollah taking up positions in the Yarmouk River Basin area. This would allow Hezbollah to threaten and attack Israel from its eastern border as well as its northern border.

Since the war began back in 2011 there have been numerous, sporadic incidents in which fire from fighting in the Yarmouk River Basin has strayed into Israel. This has prompted Israel to respond militarily against the units responsible for that fire.

As the issue united Arab nations in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 the one thing that unites all armed groups - with the possible exception of the SDF - in the Syria conflict is a deep hatred of Israel. Therefore absolutely none of them want Israel to intervene in the conflict on their behalf. It would utterly destroy their credibility amongst supporters and rivals.

Also as we have seen from numerous wars in Gaza and Lebanon when Israel goes to war it does not mess about. It draws up a clear strategy for victory and then ruthlessly executes that strategy. As we have seen from the Six Day War when Israel seizes territory it rarely gives it back.

As a result there are Zionist factions within Israel who have long looked for any excuse to join the Syria conflict. They see it as an opportunity to expand their territory not just into the Syrian controlled Golan Heights but possibly even further into Syria.

The situation is the Yarmouk River Basin area is made even more complicated by the fact that there is no dominant group operating there.

ISIL have a presence there in the form of the Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid/Jaish al-Khalid Ibn al-Walid.

Due to the original Khalid Ibn al-Walid's central role in this prophecy of defeat by the "Crusader Armies" leading to an apocalyptic final war this group has worked hard to protect its own identity. However that has not been done at the expense of its visible role as part of ISIL. Whom it formally pledged allegiance to in 2016.

The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition have also long maintained a sizable presence in the Yarmouk River Basin. The dominant groups within the coalition there are The Base/Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).

In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam formed a coalition within the Army of Conquest coalition called the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad. Timed to coincide with the Seventh Round of Meetings in the Astana Process on Syria this was done to launch an attack on the primarily Druze town of Hadar where the Army of Islam in particular had committed genocide in the summer of 2015.

Hadar is located technically within the UNDOF Zone. Due to Israel's own sizable Druze population the objective of the Army of Mohammed's offensive was to provoke Israel into entering the conflict to prevent another genocide. Something that represents the worst nightmare of the so-called guardians of the Astana Process on Syria.

Israel limited its response to allowing Syrian Druze militias who are allied with the Syrian government to cross into the Israeli occupied Golan Heights and back again in order to outflank the Army of Mohammad. With the assistance of the Syrian military these Druze militias were able to drive the Army of Mohammad out their main area of control around the town of Beit Jinn in January 2018.

Since then the Army of Conquest and particularly Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam have been reduced to a small, scattered presence around Daraa City and the town of Inkhil. These sit around 75km (45 miles) and around 40km (25 miles) south-east of Hadar and the UNDOF Zone respectively.

The Yarmouk River Basin is also the main home to the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest.

The groups which make up the Southern Front a defined solely by the geographic area in which they operate rather than by any shared ideology. This means they represent a wide mix of moderate secular groups who would fit in well with the SDF and extreme Islamist groups who are better suited to the Army of Conquest.

This range of ideology within the Southern Front means it is common for a situation to arise where ISIL attack one group in the Southern Front coalition. This will prompt another group in the Southern Front coalition to attack the Syrians. Where the Syrians are fighting the ISIL fighters who are attacking the Southern Front group.

In what often seems like an attempt by the Southern Front to weaken the Syrians in order to strengthen ISIL in their attacks on the Southern Front.

Owing to its sensitivities and complexities the Yarmouk River Basin area was the first to be declared a so-called "Deconfliction Zone" under the Astana Process on Syria. This came into effect on July 17th 2017 (17/7/17) and despite the Army of Mohammad's efforts has largely held.

On April 30th 2018 (30/4/18) the agreement over the Yarmouk River Basin area expired. This led to Russian forces who had been monitoring it to withdraw.

On May 4th 2018 (4/5/18) the Syrians launched show-of-force air and artillery strikes in and around the town of Hirak and the surrounding Harrah Hill. This sits around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.

As such Hirak is considered the main gateway into the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. The Syrian show-of-force strikes were a clear signal of their intention to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area once they had closed the East Ghouta pocket.

In response nine Islamist factions of the Southern Front announced on May 8th (8/5/18) a new coalition to repel the Syrian advance. They named it the Volcano of Harrah/Burqan al-Harrah after the al-Harrah volcanic field which stretches across Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

On May 10th (10/5/18) Israel conducted its largest wave of airstrikes against Syria since 1974. These struck targets across Damascus and Daraa and Quneitra provinces. The newly formed Volcano of Harrah used the Israeli strikes to support a short lived attack against Syrian forces at Hadar.

As I mentioned in my previous post the Syrians fully liberated the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees and with it the entire East Ghouta pocket on May 22nd (22/5/18).

By May 23rd (23/5/18) half of the Syrian 4th Mechanised Division had been re-deployed to Izra where they joined the entire 9th Mechanised Division. Izra sits around 15km (10 miles) north of Hirak.

On May 24th (24/5/18) Syrian forces entered Daraa City and took up positions at the sports stadium close to the centre of the city.

This prompted the US to publicly warn Syria on May 24th (24/5/18) that it would take "Firm Measures" if the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.

With Ramadan already under way the Syrians seemed happy to heed this warning and suspend their operation.

At around 17:00 on 15/8/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 18:45 on 15/8/18 (UK date) to add;

Eid al-Fitr ended on June 15th (15/6/18). On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.

The operation followed the same pattern as the operation to seal the East Ghouta pocket in the Central Syria area; Show-of-force air and artillery strikes accompanied by negotiations over the standard surrender offer.

Under the terms of this standard surrender offer members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.

That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."

Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.

Again the US responded to this with public demands for Syrians to respect the terms of the so-called deconfliction agreement which expired at the end of April. However they stopped short of repeating their threat of firm measures. Privately CJTFOIR informed the Southern Front coalition that they would not be intervening to prevent a Syrian operation on or around June 23rd (23/6/18).

On June 23rd (23/6/18) the Army of Conquest responded by mounting a largescale attack on Syrian forces in the area of Lajat. A large lava field this sits broadly between Inkhil and Suweida City. This assault which involved more than 1,000 Army of Conquest fighters was quickly absorbed and repelled by the Syrians.

On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. Securing the main gateway into the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area.

The inability to hold off the Syrians at Hirak led to a number of armed groups in the Southern Front coalitions to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.

On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition surrendered and opted to join the Amnesty Battalions in Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussien. These all sit between Hirak and the town of Saida which sits around 15km (10 miles) to the south. Around 10km (6 miles) east of Daraa City.

They were joined by members of the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak. These all sit to the north-west of Hirak with Ibtaa being around 18km (10 miles) away. The Southern Front fighters in those areas also opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.

On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra. These all sit around 20km (12 miles) south of Hirak and around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Saida.

Bringing these towns under their control allowed the Syrians to finally reopen the Nasib Border Crossing with Jordan.

The closure of this important trade route has been hugely damaging to both the Syrian and Jordanian economies. On June 5th (5/6/18) the Jordanian Prime Minister was forced to resign following seven days of mass protest against the nation's faltering economy.

Of those who surrendered on July 6th (6/7/18) the Southern Front fighters largely agreed to join the Amnesty Battalions. The Army of Conquest fighters however opted to surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the Sudetenland area.

On June 8th (8/7/18) a convoy transporting that first wave of Army of Conquest fighters to the Sudetenland was attacked by unidentified armed groups. This prompted the Syrians to respond with air and artillery strikes and the surrender agreement was suspended amid the fighting. However the transfers were able to resume the following day (9/7/18).

On July 12th (12/7/18) Syrian forces entered Daraa City itself. There they held a ceremony attended by the Governor of Daraa Province in which a Syrian national flag was raised outside the Omari Mosque.

Daraa City and the Omari Mosque in particular are considered the cradle of the attempts to overthrow the Syrian government back in 2011. However the fact that every newly liberated city in Syria from Aleppo in the north to Douma in the east and Daraa in the south are considered the cradle of the 2011 protest should tell you just how spontaneous those protests actually were.

On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City. Some agreed to join the Amnesty Battalions while others opted for transfer to the Sudetenland. The first group of around 1,400 fighters plus their families left for the Sudetenland that day.

Amid these gains by the Syrians western nations were forced to finally take ownership of the White Helmets group they have long sponsored. The White Helmets of course claim to provide humanitarian assistance to civilians being oppressed by the Syrian government. However they chose to only do it in areas controlled by Al Qaeda.

Over the night of July 20th (20/7/18) through to July 21st (21/7/18) 422 members of the White Helmets were evacuated from Syria across the UNDOF Zone to Israel. From there they were transferred into Jordan.

They currently reside in a secure camp in Jordan. While the western nations who demanded their evacuation debate whether they really want to allow battle hardened Al Qaeda fighters roam free on the streets of their cities.

On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid decided that they did not want to fulfil the prophecy of a heroic defeat in the Yarmouk River Basin after all. Instead they decided to surrender and be transferred to the Syrian desert to the south of the Central Syria area.

There they will likely live under the protection of CJTFOIR in camps in the shadow of the Bobby Sands base. At least until US Democrat Judge Sarah Backus frees them on bail.

Before leaving the Yarmouk River Basin area ISIL committed one last act of horrific violence. On July 25th (25/7/18) they attacked civilians around Suweida City.

At the time this was reported in much of the western media as a simple car bomb attack. However it was much more significant than that taking the form of marauding gun attacks which only ended when the gunman exploded their suicide vests.

These attackers marauded through towns and villages to the north-east of Suweida City including Duma, Tayma and al-Matouna. Duma being around 25km (15 miles) north-east of Suweida City. The attackers were also able to penetrate Suweida City itself where they did detonate a car bomb in the main vegetable market.

Although the Syrians were taken by surprise they were able to bring the attack to an end and fully secure the area by day's end. However not before 258 people had been killed, 180 wounded and at least 30 women and children had been kidnapped by ISIL. Almost all of them followers of the Druze religion.

ISIL are a nihilistic organisation. This means that they have this insatiable need to violence and destruction. That need only grows when they appear weak in the eyes of their supporters. Particularly when they are losing their nerve over fulfilling the religious prophecy they claim to hold so dear.

Therefore it is possible to look too deeply for an explanation as to why ISIL have committed horrific acts of violence and destruction. Violence and destruction is how ISIL validates its existence.

However I think that ISIL may have targeted the Druze in this way in an effort to provoke Israel. In much the same way the Army of Muhammad attempted to provoke Israel by attacking the Druze town of Hadar in November 2017.

This has been something of a pattern of ISIL's behaviour in the period around the July 25th (25/7/18) attack.

On July 24th (24/7/18) ISIL fired rockets into Israel. The belief is that they were doing this in the hope Israel would mistake it for Syrian or Hezbollah rocket fire and retaliate taking the pressure off ISIL. It did not work and Israel responded destroying the ISIL unit responsible for the rocket fire.

On the night of August 1st (1/8/18) ISIL dispatched an assault team of the type used in the July 25th (25/7/18) to attack Israel. They apparently came within 200 metres/yards of the Israel/Syria border when Israeli forces engaged them killing them all.

This has all happened against the introduction on July 19th (19/7/18) of the "Israel as Nation-State of the Jewish People" law.

As the name makes quite clear this declares Israel to be primarily the nation state of the Jewish people. In direct contradiction of Israel's declaration of independence. It also makes Hebrew the only official language of Israel whereas before Arabic was given equal status.

It almost goes without saying that this has not been at all popular amongst Israeli citizens who are not Jewish. There has been particular anger from Israel's Druze citizens who unlike Muslim-Arab citizens have traditionally been well integrated into Israeli society. Particularly its armed forces.

On August 5th (5/8/18) Israel's Druze citizens held the first in a series of mass protests against the nation state law. In both the summer of 2015 and in November 2017 it was similar Druze mass protests that led Israel to threaten intervention in Syria. ISIL may well have been calculating that the appalling July 25th (25/7/18) attack would be enough to tip Israel from threats into action.

Although it sounds strange being attacked by Israel would actually help ISIL. Particularly if those attacks occurred in the Yarmouk River Basin. It would allow them to portray themselves as the one true defenders of Muslims against the Jews. Boosting their popularity at a time when their supporters have got to be feeling disheartened.

Also the decision to allow ISIL to take their Druze hostages with them as they were transferred to the Syrian desert has obviously created significant tension between the Syrian government and Syrian Druze.

That tension was exacerbated on August 4th (4/8/18) when ISIL released a video showing the beheading of Muhannad Toukan Abu Ammar. A 19 year old Druze man who was amongst those kidnapped during the July 25th (25/7/18). The video promised to behead all of the hostages unless the Syrians agreed to exchange them for ISIL fighters it is holding prisoner.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of allowing ISIL to take their hostages with them it did allow the Syrians to take control of town of Qusair on August 1st (1/8/18). This was the last town under the control of ISIL or any other insurgent group in the Yarmouk River Basin.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin.

The operation saw 4,300 Islamist fighters plus their families - roughly 10,000 people in total - transferred to the Sudetenland. Minus 650 heavy weapons including 39 tanks, 29 armoured vehicles and 17 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

As a result the war in Syria has gone from having six areas to just five areas; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Already Syrian forces have begun to redeploy to the border between Central Syria and the Sudetenland. Some Syrian show-of-force air and artillery strikes have also been reported.

21:00 on 15/8/18 (UK date).