My previous post on the conflict in Syria was on August 16th (16/8/18).
In that post I detailed how the six areas in the conflict which existed
at the start of May 2018 had been reduced to five;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy
Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's
Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac
Christian,
Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around
50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free
Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International
Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force:
Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special
Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's
"Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi
Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the
Syria/Iraq border.
This was done on two main axis;
One which advanced along the northern
bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which
sit on the river bank.
One that advanced across the desert area to the
north of the Euphrates.This saw the SDF
clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area
between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq
border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50
miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town
of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the
Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On May 1st (1/5/18) a new anti-ISIL operation was launched in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
The first phase of Round Up saw the SDF isolate the population centres on the Euphrates River still under ISIL control. Both from the Syria/Iraq border and from each other.
This saw the SDF advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani.
These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles)
north-west of the Iraq/Syria border.
It also saw the SDF reach the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of al-Bahrah and around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Abu Hassan.
The first phrase of Round Up also saw the SDF liberate the remaining areas of the desert to the north of the Euphrates from ISIL.
In that desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a
line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah
Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this
Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already
been cleared of ISIL.
Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the
Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory.
Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on
the Syria/Iraq border.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters
Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the
Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal
occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy
Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the
Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al
Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat
al-Nusra/The Support Front.
However in order to disguise both their and
the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous
name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The
Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham (HTS).
Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only
have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main
group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves.
Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan
Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian
Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include;
The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat
Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).
The Army of Islam/Jaish
al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme
than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL
for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of
small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely
absorbed into the UTA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin
Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF
since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the
regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey
commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the
UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both
Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of
Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's
Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the
dominant part of the coalition.
Within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate
alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally
the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP). Along with other elements of the Army of Conquest coalition such as the UTA.
Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does
not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the
Sudetenland.
However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in
collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town
of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles)
south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern
boundary of the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area
under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts
of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it
simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the
other areas are not part of Syria.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.
This victory took them to southern boundary of the Sudetenland. Almost immediately Syrian forces began redeploying in preparation for an operation to expand the Central Syria area further by liberating the Sudetenland.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF formally announced the successful end of the first phase of the Round Up operation.
The SDF also announced the start of preparations for the second phase of the operation. Although not officially declared it seems highly likely this will focus on liberating the remaining population centres on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.
August 19th (19/8/18) saw the start of the annual Hajj pilgrimage. Lasting until August 24th (24/8/18) this saw Muslims from across the World travel to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia.
Many of the pilgrims travelling from both Syria and Iraq did so by road. Diverting security resources to protecting their convoys as they travelled through desert areas where ISIL along with other armed groups and bandits continue to operate.
As it tends to do the 2018 Hajj pilgrimage coincided with the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha. This ran from August 21st (21/8/18) until August 25th (25/8/18).
Also known as the Feast of Sacrifice Eid al-Adha is known to both Christians and Jews as; "The Binding of Isaac. As told in the Book of Genesis.
In order to prove his faith God commands Abraham to sacrifice his son Isaac at Mount Moriah. Just as Abraham is about to sacrifice Isaac God considers that his faith has be proved. So sends a messenger to tell Abraham to spare Issac and instead a sacrifice a goat for a feast.
Despite being shared by all of the Abrahamic religions Eid al-Adha is not widely celebrated amongst Jews and Christians. Therefore there is no easy comparison to make with western religious celebrations.
However culturally it's celebrated much like Easter. In the sense that you get some time off work to spend with family. Although not as much time as you get off at Christmas.
Even in the military no-one wants to be the boss who forces people to work on Christmas.
As a result in the time since my previous post very little has actually happened.
The only real action has been within Afrin Canton. There the SDF have continued their resistance against the Turkish occupiers and their mercenaries.
On August 6th (6/8/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a vehicle patrol of Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade of the UTA in the Sherwa area. This resulted in the death of one UTA fighter.
On the same day (6/8/18) the SDF used another roadside bomb to ambush a vehicle patrol by the regular Turkish military (TSK) between the cities of Afrin and Jinderes. This resulted in the deaths of two Turkish soldiers.
Also on August 6th (6/8/18) the SDF conducted a bomb attack against the HQ of the Turkish police in Afrin City. This resulted in the deaths of five Turkish police officers and wounded seven others. One of whom died of his wounds on August 12th (12/8/18).
On August 11th (11/8/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a vehicle patrol being conducted jointly by the TSK and an undisclosed brigade of the UTA in the Sherwa area. This resulted in the death of one Turkish soldier and an undetermined number of UTA fighters.
On August 12th (12/8/18) the SDF used a pair of roadside bombs to ambush a joint TSK/UTA vehicle patrol in Afrin City. This resulted in the deaths of ten fighters from the Hamza Division/Firqat al-Hamza brigade of the UTA.
On August 19th (19/8/18) SDF snipers in the Mabata area shot and killed Muhammad Arduan. A commander with the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade of the UTA.
On August 24th (24/8/18) SDF snipers in the Bulbul area shot and killed Khalid al-Taher. Another commander with the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade of the UTA.
It is right and proper to refer to members of the UTA as; "Turkish Mercenaries." They fight for Turkey for the simple reason that Turkey pays them to do so.
However it is worth noting that while the UTA's payscale is calculated in US Dollars they are often actually paid in Turkish Lira. The value of the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar has recently collapsed. This has made property looted from Afrin's civil population even more valuable to the UTA as they try to top up their earnings.
There is really no debate that the UTA are engaged in widespread looting. They make no attempt to disguise war crimes they are actually quite proud of.
On August 23rd (23/8/18) transit documents issued by the UTA's 9th Division brigade were found instructing checkpoints in the Rajo area not to stop trucks containing what the documents listed as; "The legitimate spoils of war."
The increased value of looted property has continued to fuel tensions between different brigades of the UTA.
Just yesterday (29/8/18) there were running gun battles between the UTA's 9th Division and the Victory of Sultan Muhammad/Sultan Mohammed al-Fateh brigades on the Rajo road in the centre of Afrin City. At least four civilians were injured in the clashes.
Yesterday (29/8/18) evening a car bomb carried out by one of the two brigades of the UTA struck the same area of Afrin City. Killing at least two civilians and wounding 20 others.
At around 17:40 on 30/8/18 (UK date) I will have to pick this up later.
Edited at around 19:00 30/8/18 (UK date) to add;
Since the end of Eid al-Adha and certainly since the end of the Hajj the redeployment of Syrian forces to the southern boundary of the Sudetenland has resumed and intensified. This has triggered significant speculation that a Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland is imminent.
At this stage though there are only rumours and counter-rumours. Many of which seem to change throughout the course of the day. I really do not feel comfortable amplifying any of those rumours by discussing them here.
However on August 28th (28/8/18) Russia confirmed that it had begun negotiations with unspecified groups within the Army of Conquest. This would indicate that an operation within the Sudetenland would follow the same pattern as recent operations in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin.
That is to say that prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to
surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout.
Under the terms of what is really that standard surrender offered by the
Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.
That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even
have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make
amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian
government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."
That offer is surrender is accompanied by a show-of-force. Intense air and artillery strikes to make clear to the armed groups that they stand no chance of survival let alone victory. In order to encourage them to accept the surrender offer.
There have so far being no reports of any significant air or artillery strikes within the Sudetenland. However Russia has marshaled a significant show-of-force within the Mediterranean Sea.
There Russia has assembled a large naval taskforce made up of at least 13 warships and 2 submarines. These are all capable of raining Cruise missiles down on the Sudetenland in such volume and at such a rate it would utterly cripple the armed groups operating there. It would certainly rapidly eliminate the 12 Turkish bases located there.
Today (30/8/18) Russia has announced that this taskforce will be joined by a further 12 warships and submarines along with 30 aircraft including strategic bombers capable of launching Cruise missiles. Initially this Russian military hardware will conduct a training drill between September 1st (1/9/18) and September 8th (8/9/18).
The CJTFOIR response to this has been confused to say the least. It is as such the US has yet to decided what it intends to do.
On the one hand the US has dispatched the USS Ross warship to the Mediterranean. There it has joined two other American warships which are said to be in transit from operations in the Persian Gulf. Like the Russian warships all three of the American ships main weapon is their ability to launch Cruise missiles.
On August 22nd (22/8/18) the US, France and the UK issued a statement declaring that they would act against the Syrians if Chemical Weapons were used in the Sudetenland. That declaration was made unprompted by any suggestion that Syria was planning to use Chemical Weapons in the Sudetenland.
That seems to indicate the CJTFOIR would like to intervene on the side of Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland. However they need there to be claims of a Chemical Weapons attack in order to give them an excuse.
Needless to say that statement has prompted Turkey to work with various groups in the Sudetenland to prepare to launch a Chemical Weapons attack. In order to provide that excuse for CJTFOIR to swoop to their aid.
On August 25th (25/8/18) Russian intelligence announced that they had tracked a Chemical Weapons shipment - namely Chlorine - from Turkey into the hands of the White Helmets in the town of Kafr Zita.
On August 28th (28/8/18) Russian intelligence announced it has tracked another - unspecified - Chemical Weapons shipment. This time entering Syria from Turkey and then travelling on to the village of Afs followed by the town of Saraqib. On this occasion Russia identified Ahrar al-Sham as the group preparing to use Chemical Weapons.
Traditionally Ahrar al-Sham have been backed by Saudi Arabia. While the Army of Islam have been backed by Qatar who are linked to Turkey and the UTA via the Muslim Brotherhood. Since May 2017 there has been considerable tension between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Particularly over the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood. Even if news of those tensions appear to have still not reached the US intelligence community.
On the other hand it has been reported that CJTFOIR have installed an advanced, portable radar network within Shangri-La. Although I've yet to hear that they've installed the missiles a military force would normally only install such a radar network as part of a ground based air defence system.
Obviously an air defence system is capable of targeting any aircraft that come within it its range. However in Shangri-La and Syria more generally there have been no notable tensions between CJTFOIR and Syrian or Russian aircraft. ISIL nor any other terrorist group have aircraft.
There have though been significant problems between CJTFOIR and Turkish aircraft. Most notably in March 2017 when Turkish aircraft conducted airstrikes against US SOF's at Manbij. Forcing Russian aircraft to chase the Turkish aircraft off to protect the Americans.
Apart from denying its aircraft the freedom to operate this radar network sends another message to Turkey.
Although I lack the clearance to know the exact type and location it is extremely likely that this radar network extends across all of northern Syria all the way out to Cyprus. This allows CJTFOIR to monitor all air traffic across all of Syria.
CJTFOIR have long had this capability using radar stations in Turkey. Establishing a rival network in Shangri-La sends the message that CJTFOIR does not need Turkey.
The occasion of Eid al-Adha saw the release of messages from both Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Al Qaeda in Syria and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Both released on August 22nd (22/8/18).
In his video message al-Jolani railed against the surrender agreements used in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin area. He declared that to even think about them is treason against God and that no such thing will happen in the Sudetenland. He also warned his followers not to rely on Turkey's protection. In an effort to distance Turkey from Al Qaeda.
The purpose of al-Baghdadi's audio message was really to dispel the rumours that he's already dead.
As such he tried to reference as many current events as he possibly could. Such as the looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland.
He also referenced Turkey's current economic problems which he echoed the mantra of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan by wrongly blaming on US sanctions. He also claimed that Russia and Iran who have handed ISIL so many defeats were on the verge of the type of economic collapse seen in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).
Al-Baghdadi also urged his followers to patiently persevere claiming that in the eyes of God victory is not measured by the territory held or by who holds air superiority.
In a clear acknowledgement that ISIL have lost a lot of territory because they have no way to defend against CJTFOIR and Russian air superiority.
20:00 on 30/8/18 (UK date).
Thursday, 30 August 2018
Wednesday, 22 August 2018
Cuomo's Right: New York's Not Great.
On August 15th (15/8/18) New York State Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo made comments as he signed a bill into law.
He mocked President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign slogan; "Make America Great Again." By declaring that America has never been great.
Yesterday (21/8/18) evening we got a clear lesson in why, if you live in New York, you would think all of America was some Third World, failed state.
The Democrat Deputy States Attorney for South New York Robert Khuzami announced a plea agreement he had announced with Michael Cohen. Formally President Trump's personal attorney.
Cohen's guilty plea related to five counts of personal income tax fraud. One count of making a false statements to obtain credit (for a Taxi cab business). Two counts of making or arranging for excessive donations to be made to political campaign.
Details of these charges were only made public yesterday evening. So like most people I am still trying to detail the exact nature of the offences. Along with any evidence prosecutors may be using to justify them.
However from what I know about Michael Cohen it seems likely that he is guilty of the first six counts. Relating to personal tax fraud and making false statements to obtain credit.
It does though seem highly unlikely that the remaining two counts relating to campaign financing could have existed. Let alone that Cohen is guilty of them.
Individually each of these eight counts are significant. Collectively they carry a maximum sentence of 65 years in prison. Which is significantly more than the 3 to 5 years Cohen has agreed to under the plea deal.
The first six counts relating to tax and credit fraud also carry with them a significant penalty. In the form of asset forfeiture.
Even without proving them to be the proceed of crime this allows prosecutors to seize the assets of the individual along with the assets of the individuals immediate family such as spouse and children. Effectively bankrupting the entire family.
Clearly what prosecutors have done in this case is promise Cohen not to use asset forfeiture in the first six counts. In return for Cohen also offering a false guilty plea to the last two counts and making false statements to implicate President Trump.
If Cohen were to reject the deal and go to trial he would almost certainly be completely cleared on the counts relating to campaign financing.
However prosecutors would only need to to secure a conviction on one of the other counts to invoke asset forfeiture to bankrupt the entire Cohen family.
The tax fraud counts are extremely easy to secure a conviction on.
Prosecutors simply need to demonstrate a single error on any one of Cohen's tax returns over a period between 2012 and 2016. If all Americans tax returns were subjected to this level of scrutiny then it is likely that most of them could be convicted of some sort of tax fraud.
The count relating to making false statements to obtain credit is even easier to secure a conviction on. All prosecutors need to do is demonstrate a claim made on a form to be untrue. Something which is extremely easy to do when trying to estimate the profits of a business over the period of a loan.
Under this level of intimidation it is hardly surprising that Cohen has decided to enter two false guilty pleas. However it is really surprising that the Judge has allowed the prosecutor to get away with this sort of corrupt practice and accept the plea deal.
To secure a conviction on either of the two campaign financing counts prosecutors would have to prove that electability is the sole and only reason why Cohen would have paid Stormy Daniels to keep quiet.
I can certainly think of quite a few other reasons why a married man would want to keep claims of an affair quiet. Particularly when those claims are false, salacious and likely to be discussed in front of the man's 11 year old child.
I think what is telling about the case is that it was initially investigated by the Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller. However rather than seeing anything Cohen could offer in terms of prosecuting Trump Mueller dumped the case on New York's State's Attorney's office.
As part of the plea deal New York's State's Attorney have not sought, let alone compelled, Cohen's further cooperation against Trump. They know that such corrupt practice leading to two false convictions would only harm any wider case.
All they're interested in is the headlines created by Cohen's false guilty pleas. They think this will be enough to win their Democrat Party votes against Trump's Republican Party in the upcoming November mid-term elections.
One of the most blatant and serious violations of the Hatch Act ever seen.
I should also point of that here in Britain we have just received a sharp lesson in Stormy Daniels and her integrity.
There is a show called; "Celebrity Big Brother." This involves celebrities being put into a house together and forced to perform tasks over the course of around a month. All while being filmed for our entertainment.
The current season which launched on August (16/8/18) is built entirely around the premise that Stormy Daniels would be amongst the cast. In fact the full title of the season is; "Celebrity Big Brother: The Eye of the Storm."
The house is built to resemble the US Presidential White House. The first task involves one of the housemates being designated; "President of the House." This President of the House has then been trying to get the other housemates to build a wall around the house in order to protect it from immigrants.
Knowing how integral she was to this season Stormy Daniels turned up on the launch day and refused to participate unless her appearance fee was tripled.
The show producers were not going to be shaken down in this way so refused. This prompted Stormy Daniels and her lawyer Michael Avenatti to make all sort of false and libellous claims against the producers.
Including that the producers has initially sent her a false contract saying she had would only need to appear for a single day rather than a full season. That the producers had asked Stormy Daniels to adopt a persona for the entertainment show and she had refused on moral grounds.
The most ridiculous claim being that the producers threatened to harm Stormy Daniels if she didn't immediately leave the country after refusing to participate in the show.
The Celebrity Big Brother producers had of course sponsored a work visa for Stormy Daniels on the basis that she would be working for them on the show. With Stormy Daniels quitting that job the visa instantly became invalid.
As sponsors of the visa the shows producers would be committing a host of immigration offences if Stormy Daniels had remained in the country. Particularly if she worked illegally.
It goes without saying though that Andrew Cuomo's brother, CNN host Chris Cuomo has been trying to put a very different spin on things.
15:55 on 22/8/18 (UK date).
He mocked President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign slogan; "Make America Great Again." By declaring that America has never been great.
Yesterday (21/8/18) evening we got a clear lesson in why, if you live in New York, you would think all of America was some Third World, failed state.
The Democrat Deputy States Attorney for South New York Robert Khuzami announced a plea agreement he had announced with Michael Cohen. Formally President Trump's personal attorney.
Cohen's guilty plea related to five counts of personal income tax fraud. One count of making a false statements to obtain credit (for a Taxi cab business). Two counts of making or arranging for excessive donations to be made to political campaign.
Details of these charges were only made public yesterday evening. So like most people I am still trying to detail the exact nature of the offences. Along with any evidence prosecutors may be using to justify them.
However from what I know about Michael Cohen it seems likely that he is guilty of the first six counts. Relating to personal tax fraud and making false statements to obtain credit.
It does though seem highly unlikely that the remaining two counts relating to campaign financing could have existed. Let alone that Cohen is guilty of them.
Individually each of these eight counts are significant. Collectively they carry a maximum sentence of 65 years in prison. Which is significantly more than the 3 to 5 years Cohen has agreed to under the plea deal.
The first six counts relating to tax and credit fraud also carry with them a significant penalty. In the form of asset forfeiture.
Even without proving them to be the proceed of crime this allows prosecutors to seize the assets of the individual along with the assets of the individuals immediate family such as spouse and children. Effectively bankrupting the entire family.
Clearly what prosecutors have done in this case is promise Cohen not to use asset forfeiture in the first six counts. In return for Cohen also offering a false guilty plea to the last two counts and making false statements to implicate President Trump.
If Cohen were to reject the deal and go to trial he would almost certainly be completely cleared on the counts relating to campaign financing.
However prosecutors would only need to to secure a conviction on one of the other counts to invoke asset forfeiture to bankrupt the entire Cohen family.
The tax fraud counts are extremely easy to secure a conviction on.
Prosecutors simply need to demonstrate a single error on any one of Cohen's tax returns over a period between 2012 and 2016. If all Americans tax returns were subjected to this level of scrutiny then it is likely that most of them could be convicted of some sort of tax fraud.
The count relating to making false statements to obtain credit is even easier to secure a conviction on. All prosecutors need to do is demonstrate a claim made on a form to be untrue. Something which is extremely easy to do when trying to estimate the profits of a business over the period of a loan.
Under this level of intimidation it is hardly surprising that Cohen has decided to enter two false guilty pleas. However it is really surprising that the Judge has allowed the prosecutor to get away with this sort of corrupt practice and accept the plea deal.
To secure a conviction on either of the two campaign financing counts prosecutors would have to prove that electability is the sole and only reason why Cohen would have paid Stormy Daniels to keep quiet.
I can certainly think of quite a few other reasons why a married man would want to keep claims of an affair quiet. Particularly when those claims are false, salacious and likely to be discussed in front of the man's 11 year old child.
I think what is telling about the case is that it was initially investigated by the Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller. However rather than seeing anything Cohen could offer in terms of prosecuting Trump Mueller dumped the case on New York's State's Attorney's office.
As part of the plea deal New York's State's Attorney have not sought, let alone compelled, Cohen's further cooperation against Trump. They know that such corrupt practice leading to two false convictions would only harm any wider case.
All they're interested in is the headlines created by Cohen's false guilty pleas. They think this will be enough to win their Democrat Party votes against Trump's Republican Party in the upcoming November mid-term elections.
One of the most blatant and serious violations of the Hatch Act ever seen.
I should also point of that here in Britain we have just received a sharp lesson in Stormy Daniels and her integrity.
There is a show called; "Celebrity Big Brother." This involves celebrities being put into a house together and forced to perform tasks over the course of around a month. All while being filmed for our entertainment.
The current season which launched on August (16/8/18) is built entirely around the premise that Stormy Daniels would be amongst the cast. In fact the full title of the season is; "Celebrity Big Brother: The Eye of the Storm."
The house is built to resemble the US Presidential White House. The first task involves one of the housemates being designated; "President of the House." This President of the House has then been trying to get the other housemates to build a wall around the house in order to protect it from immigrants.
Knowing how integral she was to this season Stormy Daniels turned up on the launch day and refused to participate unless her appearance fee was tripled.
The show producers were not going to be shaken down in this way so refused. This prompted Stormy Daniels and her lawyer Michael Avenatti to make all sort of false and libellous claims against the producers.
Including that the producers has initially sent her a false contract saying she had would only need to appear for a single day rather than a full season. That the producers had asked Stormy Daniels to adopt a persona for the entertainment show and she had refused on moral grounds.
The most ridiculous claim being that the producers threatened to harm Stormy Daniels if she didn't immediately leave the country after refusing to participate in the show.
The Celebrity Big Brother producers had of course sponsored a work visa for Stormy Daniels on the basis that she would be working for them on the show. With Stormy Daniels quitting that job the visa instantly became invalid.
As sponsors of the visa the shows producers would be committing a host of immigration offences if Stormy Daniels had remained in the country. Particularly if she worked illegally.
It goes without saying though that Andrew Cuomo's brother, CNN host Chris Cuomo has been trying to put a very different spin on things.
15:55 on 22/8/18 (UK date).
Thursday, 16 August 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 2, Day 3.
A continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/08/operation-featherweight-month-50-week-2.html
In that post I detailed how the six areas in the conflict which existed at the start of May 2018 had been reduced to five; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La is the area in the north-east of Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
The boundaries of Shangri-La were properly established through the "Cizre Storm" operation which was launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border. Liberating the area from ISIL.
This was done on two main axis; One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank. One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
However on January 22nd 2018 (22/1/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA) began an operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton. This is in the very north-west of Syria separated from Shangri-La by Garvaghy Road. Which is also under the occupation of the TSK and the UTA.
This Turkish operation forced the SDF to redeploy some 7,000 of their total force of around 75,000 from Shangri-La to Afrin Canton. As a result operations against ISIL within Shangri-La had to be formally suspended on March 6th (6/3/18).
On May 1st (1/5/18) anti-ISIL operations in Shangri-La. However under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
Despite the new name the objectives of the operation are broadly the same; To liberate the remaining towns and population centres along the north bank of the Euphrates. To liberate the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.
The new operation does though bring a new approach to those objectives.
Rather than continuing to push south-east from al-Bahrah along the banks to the Euphrates the SDF instead decided to focus on the towns which sit where the river enters Iraq from Syria. With a view to advancing north-west along the river to al-Bahrah.
In the desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.
Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.
Within this zone really the only populated area is the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area. This contains a handful of small villages and farms.
On a strategic level the most important location within the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area is the town of ad-Dashishah. This sits on the crossroad between the H715 Shadaddi Road and the Khwaibyra Road making it a critical logistics node for the area. Dashishah sits around 95km (60 miles) south-east of Hasakah City and around 10km (6 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border.
On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched their effort to liberate the desert area. This involved advancing on Dashishah and the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area on two axis.
From the west one axis set out from Shadaddi. This sits around around 40km (22 miles) west of Dashishah. From the north one axis set out from the town of al-Hawl. This sits around 55km (30 miles) north of Dashishah.
That first day of the operation the SDF advance, unopposed around 8km (5 miles) on the Shaddadi axis.
On May 4th (4/5/18) the SDF launched their effort to liberate the remaining areas on the north bank of the Euphrates.This saw them advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. The objective being to surround and liberate the towns.
The SDF also advanced Abu Hassan on the town of Hajin.This is the next town south-east of al-Bahrah sitting around 8km (5 miles) away. Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin. The objective of the SDF's advance was to cut ISIL forces north-west of Abu Hassan from ISIL forces south-east of the town stretching down to Baghuz Fawqani.
On May 11th (11/5/18) the SDF succeeded in surrounding Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani cutting them off. On May 14th (14/5/18) they liberated Baghuz Tahtani.
On May 21st (21/5/18) the SDF completed their advance on Abu Hassan. Rather than moving to liberate the town they instead moved to cut it off from Hajin. Making sure that Hajin and the near-by town of Abu al-Khatir were completely surrounded.
The river part of the operation then paused. Waiting for the completion of the desert part of the operation which was making rapid progress.
On May 8th (8/5/18) the Shadaddi axis reached and liberated the villages of Dahyim and al-Hasw with little resistance. The largest of the two al-Hasw sits at the very west of the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area along the Khwaibyra Road. Around 20km (12 miles) east of Shadaddi.
On June 5th (5/6/18) the al-Hawl axis arrived at and liberated the village of al-Faqah. Again with minimal resistance from ISIL. Al-Faqah sits around 35km (20 miles) south of al-Hawl and around 12km (7 miles) north-west of Dashishah. As part of their unopposed advance from al-Hawl the SDF also liberated the Kabibah Oil Field which sits directly north of al-Faqah.
On June 7th (7/6/18) the Shadaddi axis reached and liberated the villages of al-Marjan, Kalib, Tahtani and Khuwayra along with seven farms in the surrounding area. Marjan sits on the Khawaibyra Road around 3km (2 miles) west on al-Hasw while Khuwayra sits directly south of al-Hasw.
In liberating those areas the SDF did face resistance from ISIL. Which allowed them to kill 46 ISIL fighters including four leaders or; "Emirs."
On June 11th (11/6/18) the SDF liberated 12 villages and surrounding farms including Humaydiyah, Khumayshiyah, Hamdaniyah and al-Hulw. These sit in a cluster with Hamdaniyah at it's south-eastern tip around 6km (4 miles) north-west of Dashishah.
On June 17th (17/6/18) the SDF liberated the town Dashishah itself. Amid little-to-none ISIL resistance they were also able to liberated the town of an-Nasirah 2km (1 mile) to the south.
On June 24th (24/6/18) the SDF arrived at the Tal Safwak Checkpoint on the Syria/Iraq border. There they linked up with Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) troops having liberated some 600kmsq (360milesq) of territory.
From there the SDF advanced south clearing the remaining areas of desert. On August 4th (4/8/18) they arrived at the Azraq Oil Field which sits around 35km (20 miles) south-west of the Markadah-Buwarah Line.
This marked the completion of the first phase of Round Up.
At around 20:10 on 16/8/18 (UK date) I have a little bit more to add. Tomorrow.
Edited at around 13:25 on 17/8/18 (UK date) to add;
At the start of the Round Up operation the SDF announced that it would be coordinating with the ISF. Primarily this has taken the form of intelligence sharing and the ISF increasing their guard of the Iraq side Syria/Iraq border to prevent ISIL from fleeing the SDF into Iraq.
However this coordination has also include the Iraqi Air Force (IAF) conducting a number of airstrikes against ISIL within Syrian territory.
On May 8th (8/5/18) the IAF conducted airstrikes against ISIL in the town of Hajin. These were followed on May 14th (14/5/18) by IAF airstrikes against ISIL in Dashishah.
On May 15th (15/5/18) the IAF conducted airstrikes against ISIL in the towns of Sousa and Shajah. These are really the town main towns under ISIL control between Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani on the Syria/Iraq border and where the SDF have isolated Hajin at Abu Hassan.
On June 23rd (23/6/18) the IAF again struck ISIL in Hajin. On Thursday (16/8/18) reports started of emerge of another IAF airstrike against ISIL. At a location in Syria which is yet to be disclosed.
These Iraqi airstrikes are not what would be considered tactical air support of the SDF. That is to say that they're not being carried out to help the SDF break through ISIL's lines or help them liberate territory. Instead they are strategic airstrikes intended to target meetings of the ISIL leadership.
The June 23rd (23/6/18) airstrike on Hajin was very successful in this respect. It is believed to have killed 45 senior ISIL members as they gathered for a meeting. The May 8th (8/5/18) airstrike on Hajin is said to have targeted ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Prompting to rumours about recovered bodies awaiting identification.
The Iraqi airstrikes highlight a shift by particularly CJTFOIR from the Cizre Storm to the Round Up operation. Round Up features a much more significant focus on killing or capturing senior ISIL figures.
Aside from the airstrikes there have been a number of hush, hush reports of helicopters landing in ISIL controlled areas at night. Then following a short period of gunfire the helicopters take off again and disappear into the night.
Amongst those rumoured captured are French ISIL recruiter Adrien Guihal. Under the name Abu Osama al-Faransi he appeared in the video claiming responsibility for the July 2016 Nice attack.
Also rumoured captured is Abu Hasan al-Muhajir who has acted as ISIL's top-level spokesman since his predecessor Abu Mohammad al-Adnani was killed in CJTFOIR in August 2016. Abu Hasan al-Muhajir's true identity is not known. However some suspect him to be the US-born Muslim convert John Georgelas.
The most successful of these kill-or-capture missions occurred on or around May 10th (10/5/18).
Four top ISIL commanders including Saddam al-Jamal, Mohammad Hussain Khader and Abdul Khadir al-Zawabi were invited to a top-level meeting in Iraq. As this invitation had come from another senior ISIL leader they emerged from hiding in Syria and travelled to Iraq.
When they arrived at the meeting all they found waiting for them were the ISF who promptly took them into custody. The invitation they'd received had actually been from the ISF using information gleaned from other captured ISIL leaders.
Despite or possibly because of this success against ISIL the SDF have continued to come under attack from Turkey.
Within Shangri-La these attacks have primarily come from The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) group.
Originally operating under the name; Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa they were trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base. In June 2017 the US transferred Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa from Bobby Sands to Shangri-La where they immediately started working for the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT).
As the SDF were launching the Round Up operation on May 1st (1/5/18) HAQ/MIT assassinated the senior SDF commander Ahmad Kobani as he was travelling between Taqba and Jarniyah.
On May 2nd (2/5/18) HAQ/MIT killed the Chief Media Officer for the Democratic Union Party (PYD) Khaled Kuti with a bomb placed under his vehicle in Ayn Issa. On the same day HAQ/MIT poisoned Ibrahim al-Tayyer, the PYD's Justice Minister in Raqqa City. The PYD are one of the main political parties which helped to found the SDF.
On May 9th (9/5/18) a senior SDF intelligence officer was killed by HAQ/MIT in Hasakah. On the same day HAQ/MIT also claimed the killing of two low ranking SDF fighters at an undisclosed location in Shangri-La.
On May 25th (25/5/18) HAQ/MIT killed a fighter from the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar in Assadinah. Different from the Army of Revolutionaries based at Bobby Sands this Army of Revolutionaries is an Arab part of the SDF coalition. HAQ/MIT attempted to blame the killing on the Kurdish YPG element of the SDF and urged all the other Arab elements of the SDF to take revenge on the YPG.
On June 2nd (2/6/18) HAQ/MIT attacked civilians in Raqqa City by throwing hand grenades from a motorcycle and van at pedestrians. In response the SDF imposed a nighttime curfew in Raqqa City until June 24th (24/6/18) and conducted a series of anti-terror raids eliminating the HAQ/MIT cell.
The SDF have also come under direct attack from the regular Turkish military (TSK) in Shangri-La. On July 24th (24/7/18) TSK positions within Turkey shelled civilians in Serekanyie. This sits right on the border with Turkey around 100km (60 miles) east of where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey.
The western boundary of Shangri-La is the town of Manbij which actually sits around 30km (20 miles) west of the Euphrates. Both when his forces invaded Garvaghy Road in August 2016 and Afrin Canton in January 2019 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear his plan to attack the SDF and seize Manbij.
The US is currently implementing a so-called "Roadmap" with Turkey that will see the SDF withdraw from Manbij and Turkish forces seize the town. As part of this roadmap US forces are conducting joint-but-separate patrols with Turkish forces in the area around Manbij.
On March 26th (26/3/18) Erdogan declared his forces to be in full control of Afrin Canton. However SDF resistance has continued there.
On May 4th (4/5/18) the SDF assassinated Jamal al-Zakhool. The local official tasked with ethnically cleansing Afrin Canton by replacing the Kurdish population with Arabs and Turkmen. In the process they also killed a number of UTA fighters from the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade tasked with protecting him.
On June 13th (13/6/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division/Firqat al-Hamza brigade on the Qimara to Barada road killing three. They also ambushed a TSK patrol near Khaltah. Other TSK & UTA patrols rushed to the scene triggering a battle in which 12 of them were killed. The SDF reported no casualties
On June 24th (24/6/18) SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Levant Legion brigade on the Dewa to Tal Salour road.
On June 25th (25/6/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade in Amara. They succeeded in killing five UTA fighters while sustaining no casualties.
On June 30th (30/6/18) the SDF ambushed a joint TSK/UTA patrol in the Matabah district. Resulting in the death of one TSK soldier.
On July 1st (1/7/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade between Malikiyyah and Mariaman. Resulting in the deaths of three UTA fighters.
On July 2nd (2/7/18) the SDF ambushed a TSK patrol with a hidden roadside bomb in Mahmoudiyyah. Resulting the deaths of three TSK soldiers and leaving two more seriously wounded. On the same day SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Hamza Division brigade on the Afrin to Rajo road.
On July 3rd (3/7/18) the SDF conducted a rocket attack against the HQ of the Freemen of the East/Ahrar al-Sharqiya division in Afrin City. Resulting in unknown casualties and significant damage to the building.
On July 5th (5/7/18) SDF's snipers shot and killed a sentry at a UTA base located between Jinderes and Atma.
On July 6th (6/7/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division brigade on the Rajo to Afrin road. Resulting in the deaths of three UTA fighters.
In response to the rising death toll on July 7th (7/7/18) the TSK and UTA conducted an operation against the SDF in Shadiya. Having being informed of the SDF's location by a local resident. The ensuing battle lasted for five hours and resulted in the deaths of three UTA fighters and two members of the SDF.
The raid on Shadiya however did not seem to inhibit the SDF's operations. In response on July 7th (7/7/18) raid the SDF;
Bombed a UTA checkpoint at Mount Busaraya killing two UTA fighters. Ambushed a TSK patrol in Rajo killing two TSK soldiers. Conducted a targeted assassination of Mohammad al-Soulieman, commander of the UTA's self-styled "Elite Unit" in Bulbul.
On July 8th (8/7/18) the SDF used a hidden roadside bomb to ambush a joint TSK/UTA patrol in Mabata district. Resulting of the deaths of one UTA fighter and one TSK soldier.
On July 28th (28/7/18) the SDF conducted a raid on a base belonging to the UTA's Sultan Murad
On July 29th (29/7/18) the SDF ambushed an Ahrar al-Sham vehicle on the Faferteen to Burj Haider road causing unknown casualties. Although not officially under Turkish command Ahrar al-Sham are allied with the UTA through the Army of Conquest coalition.
On July 30th (30/7/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a joint TSK/UTA patrol at Basutah. Resulting in the deaths of one Turkish soldier and four fighters from the UTA's Hamza Division brigade.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the SDF ambushed a joint TSK/UTA patrol at Kimara. Resulting in the deaths of one TSK soldier and four UTA fighters.
At around 15:45 on 17/8/18 (UK date) I've still got more to add to this. Later.
Edited at around 15:10 on 18/8/18 (UK date) to add;
Despite its name Turkey has struggled to keep the UTA united.
Even Erdogan apologists such as Human Rights Watch have been forced to concede that the Turkish occupation of Afrin Canton has been an orgy of torture, murder and pillaging. The looting in particular has triggered infighting amongst different UTA brigades over the spoils.
On May 2nd (2/5/18) the Sultan Mehmed and Muntassir Bilah brigades of the UTA clashed in the village of Ba'adanhi in a dispute over the proceeds of their pillaging. Particularly civilians homes which they had seized after expelling their Kurdish owners.
On May 3rd (3/5/18) there were similar clashes in Jinderes. This time between Ahrar al-Sham and the Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade of the UTA.
On May 8th (8/5/18) the Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade of the UTA clashed with members of the Waki Clan in al-Bab as they attempted to loot the clan's property. The fighting became so serious that the TSK's 3rd Corp had to enter the town to act as peacekeepers between the two factions.
On June 27th (27/6/18) the Levant Front and Liwa al-Mutasim/Mutasim Brigade brigades of the UTA clashed within Afrin City. The following day the Mutasim Brigade bombed the Levant Front's HQ and then bombed the Dersim Hospital as it was treating victims of the first bombing.
Keen to cover up the division and violence amongst their ranks and smear the SDF the Turks attempted to blame the June 27th (27/6/18) Afrin City bombings on a previously unheard of Kurdish group called the Afrin Falcons. Who seem remarkably similar to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK).
When he rose to power Erdogan did so with support of Turkey's Kurdish population. Primarily on a promise of a permanent peace agreement with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In order to block this Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) supporting members of the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) invented TAK. Every time Erdogan threatened to negotiate with the PKK the TAK would conduct an atrocity. Making peace talks with Kurdish militants politically impossible.
Of course since then Erdogan has declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population and allied himself with the MHP. To the point that the MHP have now been almost fully absorbed into Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP).
The UTA are an extension of the MHP's paramilitary wing the Grey Wolves. However in an effort to disguise that fact the UTA have recently started insisting on being called the Syrian National Army. Which will get complicated if they ever fight the existing Syrian National Army.
Following the Syrians victory in the Yarmouk River Basin area Erdogan's continued occupation of Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road has become an urgent strategic threat. To CJTFOIR and anyone who wants to bring democratic change to Syria.
Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have the Sudetenland. Following victory in the Yarmouk River Basin area Syrian forces are now massed at the southern border of the Sudetenland with an operation to liberate the area seeming imminent.
There is absolutely no suggestion that the Army of Conquest coalition that currently occupy the Sudetenland under Turkish protection can continue to do so.
The largest of these groups is The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra. They are joined by the Turkestan Islamist Party (TiP) who part of the original Al Qaeda generation dating back to before the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks.
There are multiple UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolutions forbidding the granting of Al Qaeda safe haven in any nation. Within Syria it is specifically forbidden under UNSC Resolution 2170. The Chapter 7 resolution authorising military force.
The other members of the Army of Conquest coalition in the Sudetenland are arguable worse than Al Qaeda.
Having flooded the area following their defeats in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin one of the largest factions in the Sudetenland are the Army of Islam. They are a proudly genocidal group who consider ISIL too moderate. They have even executed members of ISIL for being too moderate.
Another of the large groups within the Sudetenland are Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki. The Butchers of East Aleppo Harakat al-Zinki are probably most famous for their use of the child Omran Daqneesh in their propaganda.
However Harakat al-Zinki are best defined by another photograph taken by Mahmoud Raslan - the Harakat al-Zinki photographer who took the Omran Daqneesh photograph.
It shows Raslan and other members of Harakat al-Zinki smiling as they proudly pose on a pick-up with the body of a 14 year old boy they'd just beheaded. Simply because he followed a slightly different version of Islam than Harakat al-Zinki's extreme and warped version.
The violence of Harakat al-Zinki shown in this photograph and elsewhere is not an airstrike gone astray or a burst of machine gun fire. It is taking a knife in your hand and sawing away at the throat of a child. Simply because you want to exterminate all those who disagree with you.
In an effort to hide their links to Al Qaeda and as a precursor to them being formally absorped into the UTA the Army of Islam, Harakat al-Zinki and other elements of the Army of Conquest have started insisting that people call them the National Liberation Front.
For as long as the Sudetenland is under occupation the path to a political solution to the conflict is blocked. There is certainly no suggestion that you can give groups like Al Qaeda, the Army of Islam and Harakat al-Zinki a say in how Syria or any other country is run.
Ideally what would have happened by now is that the SDF would have linked Shangri-La and Afrin Canton by taking control of Garvaghy Road. Even without Garvaghy Road under their control the SDF would still have been able to advance south from Afrin Canton to liberate the Sudetenland.
However with time running out that is simply not possible. Afrin Canton is under the occupation of Turkish forces.
As a result the only people currently placed to liberate the Sudetenland are the Syrians. If they achieve that there is certainly no reason for them to stop until the have also liberated Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road. Right up to the western boundary of Shangri-La at Manbij.
The Syrian government has always treated its Kurdish areas with a sort of benign neglect. For example in the past they have refused to grant Kurds Syrian citizenship. This has helped foster a sense of Kurdish rather than Syrian nationality.
As a result Syria's Kurdish regions have always seemed Kurdish first and Syrian second. Separate from the rest of the country. With the Syrians not desperate to bring the Kurdish areas back under their control the only real leverage the SDF hold in negotiations with the Syrian governments are the Oil & Gas Fields in the south-east corner of Shangri-La.
The areas where these Oil & Gas Fields are located are definitely Arab rather than Kurdish. Even bringing the majority Kurdish fighters of the SDF down into this area to defeat ISIL has required some extremely delicate diplomacy and negotiations. Mainly based on the principle that the Kurds will soon leave.
Amid these delicate compromises significant and sometimes violent fractures seem ever present.
On March 26th (26/3/18) the SDF arrested Bashir al-Hamdan al-Hamshar, leader of the Bani Said Tribe. This brought almost the entire tribe out in protest against the SDF Mansoura. Forcing the SDF to back down and release Bashir al-Hamdan al-Hamshar.
The following day (27/3/18) SDF intelligence officer Salah al-Mohammad was found dead. Believed killed by the Bani Said Tribe during the protests.
These tension reemerged in late April when a member of the Bani Said Tribe was found dead. On April 24th (24/4/18) HAQ/MIT who probably carried out the killing released a statement blaming it on SDF (which they described as the PKK) and pledged to carry out revenge killings against the SDF on behalf of the tribe.
In order to smooth over then tensions caused by this incident the SDF were forced to release 108 ISIL prisoners into the custody of the Bani Said Tribe. The tribe of which they are members.
The Shaitat Tribe which controls the area containing the area containing the majority of the Oil & Gas Fields have always been strongly loyal to the Syrian government. Syrian forces are just across the Euphrates from the Shaitat Tribal area in towns such as ad-Duwayr.
As a result if Shangri-La becomes isolated as the only area outside of Syrian control I can see the fragile coalition between the SDF and the Arab tribes collapsing very rapidly. Syria and Iran have certainly been working to speed up that process. On May 3rd (3/5/18) the leaders of the Arab tribes in Shangri-La travelled to Iran to meet with no less than the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Once the SDF lose the support of the Arab Tribes and control of the Oil & Gas Fields that means the end to any chance of a negotiated solution to the conflict or democratic change in Syria.
17:05 on 18/8/18 (UK date).
In that post I detailed how the six areas in the conflict which existed at the start of May 2018 had been reduced to five; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La is the area in the north-east of Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
The boundaries of Shangri-La were properly established through the "Cizre Storm" operation which was launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border. Liberating the area from ISIL.
This was done on two main axis; One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank. One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.
On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
However on January 22nd 2018 (22/1/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA) began an operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton. This is in the very north-west of Syria separated from Shangri-La by Garvaghy Road. Which is also under the occupation of the TSK and the UTA.
This Turkish operation forced the SDF to redeploy some 7,000 of their total force of around 75,000 from Shangri-La to Afrin Canton. As a result operations against ISIL within Shangri-La had to be formally suspended on March 6th (6/3/18).
On May 1st (1/5/18) anti-ISIL operations in Shangri-La. However under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."
Despite the new name the objectives of the operation are broadly the same; To liberate the remaining towns and population centres along the north bank of the Euphrates. To liberate the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.
The new operation does though bring a new approach to those objectives.
Rather than continuing to push south-east from al-Bahrah along the banks to the Euphrates the SDF instead decided to focus on the towns which sit where the river enters Iraq from Syria. With a view to advancing north-west along the river to al-Bahrah.
In the desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.
Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.
Within this zone really the only populated area is the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area. This contains a handful of small villages and farms.
On a strategic level the most important location within the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area is the town of ad-Dashishah. This sits on the crossroad between the H715 Shadaddi Road and the Khwaibyra Road making it a critical logistics node for the area. Dashishah sits around 95km (60 miles) south-east of Hasakah City and around 10km (6 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border.
On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched their effort to liberate the desert area. This involved advancing on Dashishah and the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area on two axis.
From the west one axis set out from Shadaddi. This sits around around 40km (22 miles) west of Dashishah. From the north one axis set out from the town of al-Hawl. This sits around 55km (30 miles) north of Dashishah.
That first day of the operation the SDF advance, unopposed around 8km (5 miles) on the Shaddadi axis.
On May 4th (4/5/18) the SDF launched their effort to liberate the remaining areas on the north bank of the Euphrates.This saw them advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. The objective being to surround and liberate the towns.
The SDF also advanced Abu Hassan on the town of Hajin.This is the next town south-east of al-Bahrah sitting around 8km (5 miles) away. Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin. The objective of the SDF's advance was to cut ISIL forces north-west of Abu Hassan from ISIL forces south-east of the town stretching down to Baghuz Fawqani.
On May 11th (11/5/18) the SDF succeeded in surrounding Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani cutting them off. On May 14th (14/5/18) they liberated Baghuz Tahtani.
On May 21st (21/5/18) the SDF completed their advance on Abu Hassan. Rather than moving to liberate the town they instead moved to cut it off from Hajin. Making sure that Hajin and the near-by town of Abu al-Khatir were completely surrounded.
The river part of the operation then paused. Waiting for the completion of the desert part of the operation which was making rapid progress.
On May 8th (8/5/18) the Shadaddi axis reached and liberated the villages of Dahyim and al-Hasw with little resistance. The largest of the two al-Hasw sits at the very west of the Wadi ash-Sawkh Agriculture Area along the Khwaibyra Road. Around 20km (12 miles) east of Shadaddi.
On June 5th (5/6/18) the al-Hawl axis arrived at and liberated the village of al-Faqah. Again with minimal resistance from ISIL. Al-Faqah sits around 35km (20 miles) south of al-Hawl and around 12km (7 miles) north-west of Dashishah. As part of their unopposed advance from al-Hawl the SDF also liberated the Kabibah Oil Field which sits directly north of al-Faqah.
On June 7th (7/6/18) the Shadaddi axis reached and liberated the villages of al-Marjan, Kalib, Tahtani and Khuwayra along with seven farms in the surrounding area. Marjan sits on the Khawaibyra Road around 3km (2 miles) west on al-Hasw while Khuwayra sits directly south of al-Hasw.
In liberating those areas the SDF did face resistance from ISIL. Which allowed them to kill 46 ISIL fighters including four leaders or; "Emirs."
On June 11th (11/6/18) the SDF liberated 12 villages and surrounding farms including Humaydiyah, Khumayshiyah, Hamdaniyah and al-Hulw. These sit in a cluster with Hamdaniyah at it's south-eastern tip around 6km (4 miles) north-west of Dashishah.
On June 17th (17/6/18) the SDF liberated the town Dashishah itself. Amid little-to-none ISIL resistance they were also able to liberated the town of an-Nasirah 2km (1 mile) to the south.
On June 24th (24/6/18) the SDF arrived at the Tal Safwak Checkpoint on the Syria/Iraq border. There they linked up with Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) troops having liberated some 600kmsq (360milesq) of territory.
From there the SDF advanced south clearing the remaining areas of desert. On August 4th (4/8/18) they arrived at the Azraq Oil Field which sits around 35km (20 miles) south-west of the Markadah-Buwarah Line.
This marked the completion of the first phase of Round Up.
At around 20:10 on 16/8/18 (UK date) I have a little bit more to add. Tomorrow.
Edited at around 13:25 on 17/8/18 (UK date) to add;
At the start of the Round Up operation the SDF announced that it would be coordinating with the ISF. Primarily this has taken the form of intelligence sharing and the ISF increasing their guard of the Iraq side Syria/Iraq border to prevent ISIL from fleeing the SDF into Iraq.
However this coordination has also include the Iraqi Air Force (IAF) conducting a number of airstrikes against ISIL within Syrian territory.
On May 8th (8/5/18) the IAF conducted airstrikes against ISIL in the town of Hajin. These were followed on May 14th (14/5/18) by IAF airstrikes against ISIL in Dashishah.
On May 15th (15/5/18) the IAF conducted airstrikes against ISIL in the towns of Sousa and Shajah. These are really the town main towns under ISIL control between Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani on the Syria/Iraq border and where the SDF have isolated Hajin at Abu Hassan.
On June 23rd (23/6/18) the IAF again struck ISIL in Hajin. On Thursday (16/8/18) reports started of emerge of another IAF airstrike against ISIL. At a location in Syria which is yet to be disclosed.
These Iraqi airstrikes are not what would be considered tactical air support of the SDF. That is to say that they're not being carried out to help the SDF break through ISIL's lines or help them liberate territory. Instead they are strategic airstrikes intended to target meetings of the ISIL leadership.
The June 23rd (23/6/18) airstrike on Hajin was very successful in this respect. It is believed to have killed 45 senior ISIL members as they gathered for a meeting. The May 8th (8/5/18) airstrike on Hajin is said to have targeted ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Prompting to rumours about recovered bodies awaiting identification.
The Iraqi airstrikes highlight a shift by particularly CJTFOIR from the Cizre Storm to the Round Up operation. Round Up features a much more significant focus on killing or capturing senior ISIL figures.
Aside from the airstrikes there have been a number of hush, hush reports of helicopters landing in ISIL controlled areas at night. Then following a short period of gunfire the helicopters take off again and disappear into the night.
Amongst those rumoured captured are French ISIL recruiter Adrien Guihal. Under the name Abu Osama al-Faransi he appeared in the video claiming responsibility for the July 2016 Nice attack.
Also rumoured captured is Abu Hasan al-Muhajir who has acted as ISIL's top-level spokesman since his predecessor Abu Mohammad al-Adnani was killed in CJTFOIR in August 2016. Abu Hasan al-Muhajir's true identity is not known. However some suspect him to be the US-born Muslim convert John Georgelas.
The most successful of these kill-or-capture missions occurred on or around May 10th (10/5/18).
Four top ISIL commanders including Saddam al-Jamal, Mohammad Hussain Khader and Abdul Khadir al-Zawabi were invited to a top-level meeting in Iraq. As this invitation had come from another senior ISIL leader they emerged from hiding in Syria and travelled to Iraq.
When they arrived at the meeting all they found waiting for them were the ISF who promptly took them into custody. The invitation they'd received had actually been from the ISF using information gleaned from other captured ISIL leaders.
Despite or possibly because of this success against ISIL the SDF have continued to come under attack from Turkey.
Within Shangri-La these attacks have primarily come from The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) group.
Originally operating under the name; Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa they were trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base. In June 2017 the US transferred Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa from Bobby Sands to Shangri-La where they immediately started working for the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT).
As the SDF were launching the Round Up operation on May 1st (1/5/18) HAQ/MIT assassinated the senior SDF commander Ahmad Kobani as he was travelling between Taqba and Jarniyah.
On May 2nd (2/5/18) HAQ/MIT killed the Chief Media Officer for the Democratic Union Party (PYD) Khaled Kuti with a bomb placed under his vehicle in Ayn Issa. On the same day HAQ/MIT poisoned Ibrahim al-Tayyer, the PYD's Justice Minister in Raqqa City. The PYD are one of the main political parties which helped to found the SDF.
On May 9th (9/5/18) a senior SDF intelligence officer was killed by HAQ/MIT in Hasakah. On the same day HAQ/MIT also claimed the killing of two low ranking SDF fighters at an undisclosed location in Shangri-La.
On May 25th (25/5/18) HAQ/MIT killed a fighter from the Army of Revolutionaries/Jaish al-Thuwar in Assadinah. Different from the Army of Revolutionaries based at Bobby Sands this Army of Revolutionaries is an Arab part of the SDF coalition. HAQ/MIT attempted to blame the killing on the Kurdish YPG element of the SDF and urged all the other Arab elements of the SDF to take revenge on the YPG.
On June 2nd (2/6/18) HAQ/MIT attacked civilians in Raqqa City by throwing hand grenades from a motorcycle and van at pedestrians. In response the SDF imposed a nighttime curfew in Raqqa City until June 24th (24/6/18) and conducted a series of anti-terror raids eliminating the HAQ/MIT cell.
The SDF have also come under direct attack from the regular Turkish military (TSK) in Shangri-La. On July 24th (24/7/18) TSK positions within Turkey shelled civilians in Serekanyie. This sits right on the border with Turkey around 100km (60 miles) east of where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey.
The western boundary of Shangri-La is the town of Manbij which actually sits around 30km (20 miles) west of the Euphrates. Both when his forces invaded Garvaghy Road in August 2016 and Afrin Canton in January 2019 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear his plan to attack the SDF and seize Manbij.
The US is currently implementing a so-called "Roadmap" with Turkey that will see the SDF withdraw from Manbij and Turkish forces seize the town. As part of this roadmap US forces are conducting joint-but-separate patrols with Turkish forces in the area around Manbij.
On March 26th (26/3/18) Erdogan declared his forces to be in full control of Afrin Canton. However SDF resistance has continued there.
On May 4th (4/5/18) the SDF assassinated Jamal al-Zakhool. The local official tasked with ethnically cleansing Afrin Canton by replacing the Kurdish population with Arabs and Turkmen. In the process they also killed a number of UTA fighters from the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade tasked with protecting him.
On June 13th (13/6/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division/Firqat al-Hamza brigade on the Qimara to Barada road killing three. They also ambushed a TSK patrol near Khaltah. Other TSK & UTA patrols rushed to the scene triggering a battle in which 12 of them were killed. The SDF reported no casualties
On June 24th (24/6/18) SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Levant Legion brigade on the Dewa to Tal Salour road.
On June 25th (25/6/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade in Amara. They succeeded in killing five UTA fighters while sustaining no casualties.
On June 30th (30/6/18) the SDF ambushed a joint TSK/UTA patrol in the Matabah district. Resulting in the death of one TSK soldier.
On July 1st (1/7/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Levant Legion brigade between Malikiyyah and Mariaman. Resulting in the deaths of three UTA fighters.
On July 2nd (2/7/18) the SDF ambushed a TSK patrol with a hidden roadside bomb in Mahmoudiyyah. Resulting the deaths of three TSK soldiers and leaving two more seriously wounded. On the same day SDF snipers shot and killed a fighter from the UTA's Hamza Division brigade on the Afrin to Rajo road.
On July 3rd (3/7/18) the SDF conducted a rocket attack against the HQ of the Freemen of the East/Ahrar al-Sharqiya division in Afrin City. Resulting in unknown casualties and significant damage to the building.
On July 5th (5/7/18) SDF's snipers shot and killed a sentry at a UTA base located between Jinderes and Atma.
On July 6th (6/7/18) the SDF ambushed a patrol by the UTA's Hamza Division brigade on the Rajo to Afrin road. Resulting in the deaths of three UTA fighters.
In response to the rising death toll on July 7th (7/7/18) the TSK and UTA conducted an operation against the SDF in Shadiya. Having being informed of the SDF's location by a local resident. The ensuing battle lasted for five hours and resulted in the deaths of three UTA fighters and two members of the SDF.
The raid on Shadiya however did not seem to inhibit the SDF's operations. In response on July 7th (7/7/18) raid the SDF;
Bombed a UTA checkpoint at Mount Busaraya killing two UTA fighters. Ambushed a TSK patrol in Rajo killing two TSK soldiers. Conducted a targeted assassination of Mohammad al-Soulieman, commander of the UTA's self-styled "Elite Unit" in Bulbul.
On July 8th (8/7/18) the SDF used a hidden roadside bomb to ambush a joint TSK/UTA patrol in Mabata district. Resulting of the deaths of one UTA fighter and one TSK soldier.
On July 28th (28/7/18) the SDF conducted a raid on a base belonging to the UTA's Sultan Murad
On July 29th (29/7/18) the SDF ambushed an Ahrar al-Sham vehicle on the Faferteen to Burj Haider road causing unknown casualties. Although not officially under Turkish command Ahrar al-Sham are allied with the UTA through the Army of Conquest coalition.
On July 30th (30/7/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a joint TSK/UTA patrol at Basutah. Resulting in the deaths of one Turkish soldier and four fighters from the UTA's Hamza Division brigade.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) the SDF ambushed a joint TSK/UTA patrol at Kimara. Resulting in the deaths of one TSK soldier and four UTA fighters.
At around 15:45 on 17/8/18 (UK date) I've still got more to add to this. Later.
Edited at around 15:10 on 18/8/18 (UK date) to add;
Despite its name Turkey has struggled to keep the UTA united.
Even Erdogan apologists such as Human Rights Watch have been forced to concede that the Turkish occupation of Afrin Canton has been an orgy of torture, murder and pillaging. The looting in particular has triggered infighting amongst different UTA brigades over the spoils.
On May 2nd (2/5/18) the Sultan Mehmed and Muntassir Bilah brigades of the UTA clashed in the village of Ba'adanhi in a dispute over the proceeds of their pillaging. Particularly civilians homes which they had seized after expelling their Kurdish owners.
On May 3rd (3/5/18) there were similar clashes in Jinderes. This time between Ahrar al-Sham and the Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade of the UTA.
On May 8th (8/5/18) the Ahrar al-Sharqiya brigade of the UTA clashed with members of the Waki Clan in al-Bab as they attempted to loot the clan's property. The fighting became so serious that the TSK's 3rd Corp had to enter the town to act as peacekeepers between the two factions.
On June 27th (27/6/18) the Levant Front and Liwa al-Mutasim/Mutasim Brigade brigades of the UTA clashed within Afrin City. The following day the Mutasim Brigade bombed the Levant Front's HQ and then bombed the Dersim Hospital as it was treating victims of the first bombing.
Keen to cover up the division and violence amongst their ranks and smear the SDF the Turks attempted to blame the June 27th (27/6/18) Afrin City bombings on a previously unheard of Kurdish group called the Afrin Falcons. Who seem remarkably similar to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK).
When he rose to power Erdogan did so with support of Turkey's Kurdish population. Primarily on a promise of a permanent peace agreement with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In order to block this Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) supporting members of the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) invented TAK. Every time Erdogan threatened to negotiate with the PKK the TAK would conduct an atrocity. Making peace talks with Kurdish militants politically impossible.
Of course since then Erdogan has declared war on Turkey's Kurdish population and allied himself with the MHP. To the point that the MHP have now been almost fully absorbed into Erdogan's Justice & Development Party (AKP).
The UTA are an extension of the MHP's paramilitary wing the Grey Wolves. However in an effort to disguise that fact the UTA have recently started insisting on being called the Syrian National Army. Which will get complicated if they ever fight the existing Syrian National Army.
Following the Syrians victory in the Yarmouk River Basin area Erdogan's continued occupation of Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road has become an urgent strategic threat. To CJTFOIR and anyone who wants to bring democratic change to Syria.
Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have the Sudetenland. Following victory in the Yarmouk River Basin area Syrian forces are now massed at the southern border of the Sudetenland with an operation to liberate the area seeming imminent.
There is absolutely no suggestion that the Army of Conquest coalition that currently occupy the Sudetenland under Turkish protection can continue to do so.
The largest of these groups is The Base/Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra. They are joined by the Turkestan Islamist Party (TiP) who part of the original Al Qaeda generation dating back to before the September 11th 2001 (11/9/01) attacks.
There are multiple UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolutions forbidding the granting of Al Qaeda safe haven in any nation. Within Syria it is specifically forbidden under UNSC Resolution 2170. The Chapter 7 resolution authorising military force.
The other members of the Army of Conquest coalition in the Sudetenland are arguable worse than Al Qaeda.
Having flooded the area following their defeats in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin one of the largest factions in the Sudetenland are the Army of Islam. They are a proudly genocidal group who consider ISIL too moderate. They have even executed members of ISIL for being too moderate.
Another of the large groups within the Sudetenland are Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki. The Butchers of East Aleppo Harakat al-Zinki are probably most famous for their use of the child Omran Daqneesh in their propaganda.
However Harakat al-Zinki are best defined by another photograph taken by Mahmoud Raslan - the Harakat al-Zinki photographer who took the Omran Daqneesh photograph.
It shows Raslan and other members of Harakat al-Zinki smiling as they proudly pose on a pick-up with the body of a 14 year old boy they'd just beheaded. Simply because he followed a slightly different version of Islam than Harakat al-Zinki's extreme and warped version.
The violence of Harakat al-Zinki shown in this photograph and elsewhere is not an airstrike gone astray or a burst of machine gun fire. It is taking a knife in your hand and sawing away at the throat of a child. Simply because you want to exterminate all those who disagree with you.
In an effort to hide their links to Al Qaeda and as a precursor to them being formally absorped into the UTA the Army of Islam, Harakat al-Zinki and other elements of the Army of Conquest have started insisting that people call them the National Liberation Front.
For as long as the Sudetenland is under occupation the path to a political solution to the conflict is blocked. There is certainly no suggestion that you can give groups like Al Qaeda, the Army of Islam and Harakat al-Zinki a say in how Syria or any other country is run.
Ideally what would have happened by now is that the SDF would have linked Shangri-La and Afrin Canton by taking control of Garvaghy Road. Even without Garvaghy Road under their control the SDF would still have been able to advance south from Afrin Canton to liberate the Sudetenland.
However with time running out that is simply not possible. Afrin Canton is under the occupation of Turkish forces.
As a result the only people currently placed to liberate the Sudetenland are the Syrians. If they achieve that there is certainly no reason for them to stop until the have also liberated Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road. Right up to the western boundary of Shangri-La at Manbij.
The Syrian government has always treated its Kurdish areas with a sort of benign neglect. For example in the past they have refused to grant Kurds Syrian citizenship. This has helped foster a sense of Kurdish rather than Syrian nationality.
As a result Syria's Kurdish regions have always seemed Kurdish first and Syrian second. Separate from the rest of the country. With the Syrians not desperate to bring the Kurdish areas back under their control the only real leverage the SDF hold in negotiations with the Syrian governments are the Oil & Gas Fields in the south-east corner of Shangri-La.
The areas where these Oil & Gas Fields are located are definitely Arab rather than Kurdish. Even bringing the majority Kurdish fighters of the SDF down into this area to defeat ISIL has required some extremely delicate diplomacy and negotiations. Mainly based on the principle that the Kurds will soon leave.
Amid these delicate compromises significant and sometimes violent fractures seem ever present.
On March 26th (26/3/18) the SDF arrested Bashir al-Hamdan al-Hamshar, leader of the Bani Said Tribe. This brought almost the entire tribe out in protest against the SDF Mansoura. Forcing the SDF to back down and release Bashir al-Hamdan al-Hamshar.
The following day (27/3/18) SDF intelligence officer Salah al-Mohammad was found dead. Believed killed by the Bani Said Tribe during the protests.
These tension reemerged in late April when a member of the Bani Said Tribe was found dead. On April 24th (24/4/18) HAQ/MIT who probably carried out the killing released a statement blaming it on SDF (which they described as the PKK) and pledged to carry out revenge killings against the SDF on behalf of the tribe.
In order to smooth over then tensions caused by this incident the SDF were forced to release 108 ISIL prisoners into the custody of the Bani Said Tribe. The tribe of which they are members.
The Shaitat Tribe which controls the area containing the area containing the majority of the Oil & Gas Fields have always been strongly loyal to the Syrian government. Syrian forces are just across the Euphrates from the Shaitat Tribal area in towns such as ad-Duwayr.
As a result if Shangri-La becomes isolated as the only area outside of Syrian control I can see the fragile coalition between the SDF and the Arab tribes collapsing very rapidly. Syria and Iran have certainly been working to speed up that process. On May 3rd (3/5/18) the leaders of the Arab tribes in Shangri-La travelled to Iran to meet with no less than the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Once the SDF lose the support of the Arab Tribes and control of the Oil & Gas Fields that means the end to any chance of a negotiated solution to the conflict or democratic change in Syria.
17:05 on 18/8/18 (UK date).
Wednesday, 15 August 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 2, Day 2.
A continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/08/operation-featherweight-month-50-week-1_13.html
In that post I wrote about how the Syrians closed the East Ghouta pocket within the Central Syria area.
Directly to the south-west of the Central Syria area you have the Yarmouk River Basin area. Located around the basin of the Yarmouk River this area includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suweida Province. It runs along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel.
The Yarmouk River basin is one of the most politically sensitive regions in the Syria conflict. For a host of reasons.
ISIL are an apocalyptic organisation. That means that their objective from this war is actually to lose it. They believe that defeat will trigger God's return to Earth to lead them in a final, apocalyptic battle. Under God's physical leadership they will be triumphant in that final battle against the unbelievers.
ISIL believe that their defeat which will trigger God's return to Earth will occur within the Yarmouk River Basin. So any battles ISIL fight - and particularly ones they lose - in the Yarmouk River Basin will encourage and excite their followers.
The Yarmouk River Basin was also one of the main battlefields in the 1967 Six Day War between Israel and the Arab states including Syria. This war resulted in a decisive Israeli victory which saw Israel seize and continue to occupy part of the Golan Heights.
Although referred to as the Six Day War this 1967 war between Israel and Syria is technically still going on. Following a second outbreak of fighting in October 1973 a truce was agreed with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) monitoring a disengagement zone between the Israel occupied Golan Heights and the section of the Golan Heights that remain under Syrian control.
As part of this truce there are longstanding and serious restrictions on the size and type of military forces that either party can deploy close to the UNDOF Zone. Neither side are allowed to deploy military forces within the UNDOF Zone.
Allowing Syria to even temporarily deploy forces into and around the UNDOF Zone upends around 45 years of complex and delicate diplomacy.
In their efforts to regain control of the country Syria is being assisted by their allies Hezbollah. A Lebanese group Hezbollah primarily operate in southern Lebanon, right on Israel's northern border. From that position Hezbollah frequently threaten and sometimes attack Israel. Most recently in 2006.
Israel are understandably very opposed to Hezbollah taking up positions in the Yarmouk River Basin area. This would allow Hezbollah to threaten and attack Israel from its eastern border as well as its northern border.
Since the war began back in 2011 there have been numerous, sporadic incidents in which fire from fighting in the Yarmouk River Basin has strayed into Israel. This has prompted Israel to respond militarily against the units responsible for that fire.
As the issue united Arab nations in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 the one thing that unites all armed groups - with the possible exception of the SDF - in the Syria conflict is a deep hatred of Israel. Therefore absolutely none of them want Israel to intervene in the conflict on their behalf. It would utterly destroy their credibility amongst supporters and rivals.
Also as we have seen from numerous wars in Gaza and Lebanon when Israel goes to war it does not mess about. It draws up a clear strategy for victory and then ruthlessly executes that strategy. As we have seen from the Six Day War when Israel seizes territory it rarely gives it back.
As a result there are Zionist factions within Israel who have long looked for any excuse to join the Syria conflict. They see it as an opportunity to expand their territory not just into the Syrian controlled Golan Heights but possibly even further into Syria.
The situation is the Yarmouk River Basin area is made even more complicated by the fact that there is no dominant group operating there.
ISIL have a presence there in the form of the Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid/Jaish al-Khalid Ibn al-Walid.
Due to the original Khalid Ibn al-Walid's central role in this prophecy of defeat by the "Crusader Armies" leading to an apocalyptic final war this group has worked hard to protect its own identity. However that has not been done at the expense of its visible role as part of ISIL. Whom it formally pledged allegiance to in 2016.
The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition have also long maintained a sizable presence in the Yarmouk River Basin. The dominant groups within the coalition there are The Base/Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).
In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam formed a coalition within the Army of Conquest coalition called the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad. Timed to coincide with the Seventh Round of Meetings in the Astana Process on Syria this was done to launch an attack on the primarily Druze town of Hadar where the Army of Islam in particular had committed genocide in the summer of 2015.
Hadar is located technically within the UNDOF Zone. Due to Israel's own sizable Druze population the objective of the Army of Mohammed's offensive was to provoke Israel into entering the conflict to prevent another genocide. Something that represents the worst nightmare of the so-called guardians of the Astana Process on Syria.
Israel limited its response to allowing Syrian Druze militias who are allied with the Syrian government to cross into the Israeli occupied Golan Heights and back again in order to outflank the Army of Mohammad. With the assistance of the Syrian military these Druze militias were able to drive the Army of Mohammad out their main area of control around the town of Beit Jinn in January 2018.
Since then the Army of Conquest and particularly Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam have been reduced to a small, scattered presence around Daraa City and the town of Inkhil. These sit around 75km (45 miles) and around 40km (25 miles) south-east of Hadar and the UNDOF Zone respectively.
The Yarmouk River Basin is also the main home to the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest.
The groups which make up the Southern Front a defined solely by the geographic area in which they operate rather than by any shared ideology. This means they represent a wide mix of moderate secular groups who would fit in well with the SDF and extreme Islamist groups who are better suited to the Army of Conquest.
This range of ideology within the Southern Front means it is common for a situation to arise where ISIL attack one group in the Southern Front coalition. This will prompt another group in the Southern Front coalition to attack the Syrians. Where the Syrians are fighting the ISIL fighters who are attacking the Southern Front group.
In what often seems like an attempt by the Southern Front to weaken the Syrians in order to strengthen ISIL in their attacks on the Southern Front.
Owing to its sensitivities and complexities the Yarmouk River Basin area was the first to be declared a so-called "Deconfliction Zone" under the Astana Process on Syria. This came into effect on July 17th 2017 (17/7/17) and despite the Army of Mohammad's efforts has largely held.
On April 30th 2018 (30/4/18) the agreement over the Yarmouk River Basin area expired. This led to Russian forces who had been monitoring it to withdraw.
On May 4th 2018 (4/5/18) the Syrians launched show-of-force air and artillery strikes in and around the town of Hirak and the surrounding Harrah Hill. This sits around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.
As such Hirak is considered the main gateway into the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. The Syrian show-of-force strikes were a clear signal of their intention to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area once they had closed the East Ghouta pocket.
In response nine Islamist factions of the Southern Front announced on May 8th (8/5/18) a new coalition to repel the Syrian advance. They named it the Volcano of Harrah/Burqan al-Harrah after the al-Harrah volcanic field which stretches across Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
On May 10th (10/5/18) Israel conducted its largest wave of airstrikes against Syria since 1974. These struck targets across Damascus and Daraa and Quneitra provinces. The newly formed Volcano of Harrah used the Israeli strikes to support a short lived attack against Syrian forces at Hadar.
As I mentioned in my previous post the Syrians fully liberated the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees and with it the entire East Ghouta pocket on May 22nd (22/5/18).
By May 23rd (23/5/18) half of the Syrian 4th Mechanised Division had been re-deployed to Izra where they joined the entire 9th Mechanised Division. Izra sits around 15km (10 miles) north of Hirak.
On May 24th (24/5/18) Syrian forces entered Daraa City and took up positions at the sports stadium close to the centre of the city.
This prompted the US to publicly warn Syria on May 24th (24/5/18) that it would take "Firm Measures" if the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.
With Ramadan already under way the Syrians seemed happy to heed this warning and suspend their operation.
At around 17:00 on 15/8/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 18:45 on 15/8/18 (UK date) to add;
Eid al-Fitr ended on June 15th (15/6/18). On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.
The operation followed the same pattern as the operation to seal the East Ghouta pocket in the Central Syria area; Show-of-force air and artillery strikes accompanied by negotiations over the standard surrender offer.
Under the terms of this standard surrender offer members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.
That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."
Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.
Again the US responded to this with public demands for Syrians to respect the terms of the so-called deconfliction agreement which expired at the end of April. However they stopped short of repeating their threat of firm measures. Privately CJTFOIR informed the Southern Front coalition that they would not be intervening to prevent a Syrian operation on or around June 23rd (23/6/18).
On June 23rd (23/6/18) the Army of Conquest responded by mounting a largescale attack on Syrian forces in the area of Lajat. A large lava field this sits broadly between Inkhil and Suweida City. This assault which involved more than 1,000 Army of Conquest fighters was quickly absorbed and repelled by the Syrians.
On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. Securing the main gateway into the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area.
The inability to hold off the Syrians at Hirak led to a number of armed groups in the Southern Front coalitions to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.
On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition surrendered and opted to join the Amnesty Battalions in Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussien. These all sit between Hirak and the town of Saida which sits around 15km (10 miles) to the south. Around 10km (6 miles) east of Daraa City.
They were joined by members of the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak. These all sit to the north-west of Hirak with Ibtaa being around 18km (10 miles) away. The Southern Front fighters in those areas also opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.
On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra. These all sit around 20km (12 miles) south of Hirak and around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Saida.
Bringing these towns under their control allowed the Syrians to finally reopen the Nasib Border Crossing with Jordan.
The closure of this important trade route has been hugely damaging to both the Syrian and Jordanian economies. On June 5th (5/6/18) the Jordanian Prime Minister was forced to resign following seven days of mass protest against the nation's faltering economy.
Of those who surrendered on July 6th (6/7/18) the Southern Front fighters largely agreed to join the Amnesty Battalions. The Army of Conquest fighters however opted to surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the Sudetenland area.
On June 8th (8/7/18) a convoy transporting that first wave of Army of Conquest fighters to the Sudetenland was attacked by unidentified armed groups. This prompted the Syrians to respond with air and artillery strikes and the surrender agreement was suspended amid the fighting. However the transfers were able to resume the following day (9/7/18).
On July 12th (12/7/18) Syrian forces entered Daraa City itself. There they held a ceremony attended by the Governor of Daraa Province in which a Syrian national flag was raised outside the Omari Mosque.
Daraa City and the Omari Mosque in particular are considered the cradle of the attempts to overthrow the Syrian government back in 2011. However the fact that every newly liberated city in Syria from Aleppo in the north to Douma in the east and Daraa in the south are considered the cradle of the 2011 protest should tell you just how spontaneous those protests actually were.
On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City. Some agreed to join the Amnesty Battalions while others opted for transfer to the Sudetenland. The first group of around 1,400 fighters plus their families left for the Sudetenland that day.
Amid these gains by the Syrians western nations were forced to finally take ownership of the White Helmets group they have long sponsored. The White Helmets of course claim to provide humanitarian assistance to civilians being oppressed by the Syrian government. However they chose to only do it in areas controlled by Al Qaeda.
Over the night of July 20th (20/7/18) through to July 21st (21/7/18) 422 members of the White Helmets were evacuated from Syria across the UNDOF Zone to Israel. From there they were transferred into Jordan.
They currently reside in a secure camp in Jordan. While the western nations who demanded their evacuation debate whether they really want to allow battle hardened Al Qaeda fighters roam free on the streets of their cities.
On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid decided that they did not want to fulfil the prophecy of a heroic defeat in the Yarmouk River Basin after all. Instead they decided to surrender and be transferred to the Syrian desert to the south of the Central Syria area.
There they will likely live under the protection of CJTFOIR in camps in the shadow of the Bobby Sands base. At least until US Democrat Judge Sarah Backus frees them on bail.
Before leaving the Yarmouk River Basin area ISIL committed one last act of horrific violence. On July 25th (25/7/18) they attacked civilians around Suweida City.
At the time this was reported in much of the western media as a simple car bomb attack. However it was much more significant than that taking the form of marauding gun attacks which only ended when the gunman exploded their suicide vests.
These attackers marauded through towns and villages to the north-east of Suweida City including Duma, Tayma and al-Matouna. Duma being around 25km (15 miles) north-east of Suweida City. The attackers were also able to penetrate Suweida City itself where they did detonate a car bomb in the main vegetable market.
Although the Syrians were taken by surprise they were able to bring the attack to an end and fully secure the area by day's end. However not before 258 people had been killed, 180 wounded and at least 30 women and children had been kidnapped by ISIL. Almost all of them followers of the Druze religion.
ISIL are a nihilistic organisation. This means that they have this insatiable need to violence and destruction. That need only grows when they appear weak in the eyes of their supporters. Particularly when they are losing their nerve over fulfilling the religious prophecy they claim to hold so dear.
Therefore it is possible to look too deeply for an explanation as to why ISIL have committed horrific acts of violence and destruction. Violence and destruction is how ISIL validates its existence.
However I think that ISIL may have targeted the Druze in this way in an effort to provoke Israel. In much the same way the Army of Muhammad attempted to provoke Israel by attacking the Druze town of Hadar in November 2017.
This has been something of a pattern of ISIL's behaviour in the period around the July 25th (25/7/18) attack.
On July 24th (24/7/18) ISIL fired rockets into Israel. The belief is that they were doing this in the hope Israel would mistake it for Syrian or Hezbollah rocket fire and retaliate taking the pressure off ISIL. It did not work and Israel responded destroying the ISIL unit responsible for the rocket fire.
On the night of August 1st (1/8/18) ISIL dispatched an assault team of the type used in the July 25th (25/7/18) to attack Israel. They apparently came within 200 metres/yards of the Israel/Syria border when Israeli forces engaged them killing them all.
This has all happened against the introduction on July 19th (19/7/18) of the "Israel as Nation-State of the Jewish People" law.
As the name makes quite clear this declares Israel to be primarily the nation state of the Jewish people. In direct contradiction of Israel's declaration of independence. It also makes Hebrew the only official language of Israel whereas before Arabic was given equal status.
It almost goes without saying that this has not been at all popular amongst Israeli citizens who are not Jewish. There has been particular anger from Israel's Druze citizens who unlike Muslim-Arab citizens have traditionally been well integrated into Israeli society. Particularly its armed forces.
On August 5th (5/8/18) Israel's Druze citizens held the first in a series of mass protests against the nation state law. In both the summer of 2015 and in November 2017 it was similar Druze mass protests that led Israel to threaten intervention in Syria. ISIL may well have been calculating that the appalling July 25th (25/7/18) attack would be enough to tip Israel from threats into action.
Although it sounds strange being attacked by Israel would actually help ISIL. Particularly if those attacks occurred in the Yarmouk River Basin. It would allow them to portray themselves as the one true defenders of Muslims against the Jews. Boosting their popularity at a time when their supporters have got to be feeling disheartened.
Also the decision to allow ISIL to take their Druze hostages with them as they were transferred to the Syrian desert has obviously created significant tension between the Syrian government and Syrian Druze.
That tension was exacerbated on August 4th (4/8/18) when ISIL released a video showing the beheading of Muhannad Toukan Abu Ammar. A 19 year old Druze man who was amongst those kidnapped during the July 25th (25/7/18). The video promised to behead all of the hostages unless the Syrians agreed to exchange them for ISIL fighters it is holding prisoner.
Whatever the rights or wrongs of allowing ISIL to take their hostages with them it did allow the Syrians to take control of town of Qusair on August 1st (1/8/18). This was the last town under the control of ISIL or any other insurgent group in the Yarmouk River Basin.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin.
The operation saw 4,300 Islamist fighters plus their families - roughly 10,000 people in total - transferred to the Sudetenland. Minus 650 heavy weapons including 39 tanks, 29 armoured vehicles and 17 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).
As a result the war in Syria has gone from having six areas to just five areas; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Already Syrian forces have begun to redeploy to the border between Central Syria and the Sudetenland. Some Syrian show-of-force air and artillery strikes have also been reported.
21:00 on 15/8/18 (UK date).
In that post I wrote about how the Syrians closed the East Ghouta pocket within the Central Syria area.
Directly to the south-west of the Central Syria area you have the Yarmouk River Basin area. Located around the basin of the Yarmouk River this area includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suweida Province. It runs along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel.
The Yarmouk River basin is one of the most politically sensitive regions in the Syria conflict. For a host of reasons.
ISIL are an apocalyptic organisation. That means that their objective from this war is actually to lose it. They believe that defeat will trigger God's return to Earth to lead them in a final, apocalyptic battle. Under God's physical leadership they will be triumphant in that final battle against the unbelievers.
ISIL believe that their defeat which will trigger God's return to Earth will occur within the Yarmouk River Basin. So any battles ISIL fight - and particularly ones they lose - in the Yarmouk River Basin will encourage and excite their followers.
The Yarmouk River Basin was also one of the main battlefields in the 1967 Six Day War between Israel and the Arab states including Syria. This war resulted in a decisive Israeli victory which saw Israel seize and continue to occupy part of the Golan Heights.
Although referred to as the Six Day War this 1967 war between Israel and Syria is technically still going on. Following a second outbreak of fighting in October 1973 a truce was agreed with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) monitoring a disengagement zone between the Israel occupied Golan Heights and the section of the Golan Heights that remain under Syrian control.
As part of this truce there are longstanding and serious restrictions on the size and type of military forces that either party can deploy close to the UNDOF Zone. Neither side are allowed to deploy military forces within the UNDOF Zone.
Allowing Syria to even temporarily deploy forces into and around the UNDOF Zone upends around 45 years of complex and delicate diplomacy.
In their efforts to regain control of the country Syria is being assisted by their allies Hezbollah. A Lebanese group Hezbollah primarily operate in southern Lebanon, right on Israel's northern border. From that position Hezbollah frequently threaten and sometimes attack Israel. Most recently in 2006.
Israel are understandably very opposed to Hezbollah taking up positions in the Yarmouk River Basin area. This would allow Hezbollah to threaten and attack Israel from its eastern border as well as its northern border.
Since the war began back in 2011 there have been numerous, sporadic incidents in which fire from fighting in the Yarmouk River Basin has strayed into Israel. This has prompted Israel to respond militarily against the units responsible for that fire.
As the issue united Arab nations in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 the one thing that unites all armed groups - with the possible exception of the SDF - in the Syria conflict is a deep hatred of Israel. Therefore absolutely none of them want Israel to intervene in the conflict on their behalf. It would utterly destroy their credibility amongst supporters and rivals.
Also as we have seen from numerous wars in Gaza and Lebanon when Israel goes to war it does not mess about. It draws up a clear strategy for victory and then ruthlessly executes that strategy. As we have seen from the Six Day War when Israel seizes territory it rarely gives it back.
As a result there are Zionist factions within Israel who have long looked for any excuse to join the Syria conflict. They see it as an opportunity to expand their territory not just into the Syrian controlled Golan Heights but possibly even further into Syria.
The situation is the Yarmouk River Basin area is made even more complicated by the fact that there is no dominant group operating there.
ISIL have a presence there in the form of the Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid/Jaish al-Khalid Ibn al-Walid.
Due to the original Khalid Ibn al-Walid's central role in this prophecy of defeat by the "Crusader Armies" leading to an apocalyptic final war this group has worked hard to protect its own identity. However that has not been done at the expense of its visible role as part of ISIL. Whom it formally pledged allegiance to in 2016.
The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition have also long maintained a sizable presence in the Yarmouk River Basin. The dominant groups within the coalition there are The Base/Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).
In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam formed a coalition within the Army of Conquest coalition called the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad. Timed to coincide with the Seventh Round of Meetings in the Astana Process on Syria this was done to launch an attack on the primarily Druze town of Hadar where the Army of Islam in particular had committed genocide in the summer of 2015.
Hadar is located technically within the UNDOF Zone. Due to Israel's own sizable Druze population the objective of the Army of Mohammed's offensive was to provoke Israel into entering the conflict to prevent another genocide. Something that represents the worst nightmare of the so-called guardians of the Astana Process on Syria.
Israel limited its response to allowing Syrian Druze militias who are allied with the Syrian government to cross into the Israeli occupied Golan Heights and back again in order to outflank the Army of Mohammad. With the assistance of the Syrian military these Druze militias were able to drive the Army of Mohammad out their main area of control around the town of Beit Jinn in January 2018.
Since then the Army of Conquest and particularly Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam have been reduced to a small, scattered presence around Daraa City and the town of Inkhil. These sit around 75km (45 miles) and around 40km (25 miles) south-east of Hadar and the UNDOF Zone respectively.
The Yarmouk River Basin is also the main home to the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest.
The groups which make up the Southern Front a defined solely by the geographic area in which they operate rather than by any shared ideology. This means they represent a wide mix of moderate secular groups who would fit in well with the SDF and extreme Islamist groups who are better suited to the Army of Conquest.
This range of ideology within the Southern Front means it is common for a situation to arise where ISIL attack one group in the Southern Front coalition. This will prompt another group in the Southern Front coalition to attack the Syrians. Where the Syrians are fighting the ISIL fighters who are attacking the Southern Front group.
In what often seems like an attempt by the Southern Front to weaken the Syrians in order to strengthen ISIL in their attacks on the Southern Front.
Owing to its sensitivities and complexities the Yarmouk River Basin area was the first to be declared a so-called "Deconfliction Zone" under the Astana Process on Syria. This came into effect on July 17th 2017 (17/7/17) and despite the Army of Mohammad's efforts has largely held.
On April 30th 2018 (30/4/18) the agreement over the Yarmouk River Basin area expired. This led to Russian forces who had been monitoring it to withdraw.
On May 4th 2018 (4/5/18) the Syrians launched show-of-force air and artillery strikes in and around the town of Hirak and the surrounding Harrah Hill. This sits around 110km (65 miles) south of Damascus. Around 30km (20 miles) west of As-Suweida City and around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Daraa City.
As such Hirak is considered the main gateway into the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area. The Syrian show-of-force strikes were a clear signal of their intention to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area once they had closed the East Ghouta pocket.
In response nine Islamist factions of the Southern Front announced on May 8th (8/5/18) a new coalition to repel the Syrian advance. They named it the Volcano of Harrah/Burqan al-Harrah after the al-Harrah volcanic field which stretches across Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
On May 10th (10/5/18) Israel conducted its largest wave of airstrikes against Syria since 1974. These struck targets across Damascus and Daraa and Quneitra provinces. The newly formed Volcano of Harrah used the Israeli strikes to support a short lived attack against Syrian forces at Hadar.
As I mentioned in my previous post the Syrians fully liberated the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees and with it the entire East Ghouta pocket on May 22nd (22/5/18).
By May 23rd (23/5/18) half of the Syrian 4th Mechanised Division had been re-deployed to Izra where they joined the entire 9th Mechanised Division. Izra sits around 15km (10 miles) north of Hirak.
On May 24th (24/5/18) Syrian forces entered Daraa City and took up positions at the sports stadium close to the centre of the city.
This prompted the US to publicly warn Syria on May 24th (24/5/18) that it would take "Firm Measures" if the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.
With Ramadan already under way the Syrians seemed happy to heed this warning and suspend their operation.
At around 17:00 on 15/8/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.
Edited at around 18:45 on 15/8/18 (UK date) to add;
Eid al-Fitr ended on June 15th (15/6/18). On June 19th (19/6/18) the Syrians resumed their operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area.
The operation followed the same pattern as the operation to seal the East Ghouta pocket in the Central Syria area; Show-of-force air and artillery strikes accompanied by negotiations over the standard surrender offer.
Under the terms of this standard surrender offer members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.
That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."
Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.
Again the US responded to this with public demands for Syrians to respect the terms of the so-called deconfliction agreement which expired at the end of April. However they stopped short of repeating their threat of firm measures. Privately CJTFOIR informed the Southern Front coalition that they would not be intervening to prevent a Syrian operation on or around June 23rd (23/6/18).
On June 23rd (23/6/18) the Army of Conquest responded by mounting a largescale attack on Syrian forces in the area of Lajat. A large lava field this sits broadly between Inkhil and Suweida City. This assault which involved more than 1,000 Army of Conquest fighters was quickly absorbed and repelled by the Syrians.
On June 28th (28/6/18) the Syrians liberated the town of Hirak. Securing the main gateway into the Yarmouk River Basin area from the Central Syria area.
The inability to hold off the Syrians at Hirak led to a number of armed groups in the Southern Front coalitions to take the Syrians up on their offer of surrender.
On June 30th (30/6/18) the Southern Front coalition surrendered and opted to join the Amnesty Battalions in Dael, Western Ghariya, Eastern Ghariya, Talul Khlayf and Tal Sheikh Hussien. These all sit between Hirak and the town of Saida which sits around 15km (10 miles) to the south. Around 10km (6 miles) east of Daraa City.
They were joined by members of the Southern Front coalition in Ibtaa, Um Walad and Eastern Karak. These all sit to the north-west of Hirak with Ibtaa being around 18km (10 miles) away. The Southern Front fighters in those areas also opted to join the Amnesty Battalions.
On July 6th (6/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender the towns of Kahil, al-Sahwa, al-Jiza and al-Misaifra. These all sit around 20km (12 miles) south of Hirak and around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Saida.
Bringing these towns under their control allowed the Syrians to finally reopen the Nasib Border Crossing with Jordan.
The closure of this important trade route has been hugely damaging to both the Syrian and Jordanian economies. On June 5th (5/6/18) the Jordanian Prime Minister was forced to resign following seven days of mass protest against the nation's faltering economy.
Of those who surrendered on July 6th (6/7/18) the Southern Front fighters largely agreed to join the Amnesty Battalions. The Army of Conquest fighters however opted to surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the Sudetenland area.
On June 8th (8/7/18) a convoy transporting that first wave of Army of Conquest fighters to the Sudetenland was attacked by unidentified armed groups. This prompted the Syrians to respond with air and artillery strikes and the surrender agreement was suspended amid the fighting. However the transfers were able to resume the following day (9/7/18).
On July 12th (12/7/18) Syrian forces entered Daraa City itself. There they held a ceremony attended by the Governor of Daraa Province in which a Syrian national flag was raised outside the Omari Mosque.
Daraa City and the Omari Mosque in particular are considered the cradle of the attempts to overthrow the Syrian government back in 2011. However the fact that every newly liberated city in Syria from Aleppo in the north to Douma in the east and Daraa in the south are considered the cradle of the 2011 protest should tell you just how spontaneous those protests actually were.
On July 15th (15/7/18) Army of Conquest and Southern Front fighters agreed to surrender Daraa City. Some agreed to join the Amnesty Battalions while others opted for transfer to the Sudetenland. The first group of around 1,400 fighters plus their families left for the Sudetenland that day.
Amid these gains by the Syrians western nations were forced to finally take ownership of the White Helmets group they have long sponsored. The White Helmets of course claim to provide humanitarian assistance to civilians being oppressed by the Syrian government. However they chose to only do it in areas controlled by Al Qaeda.
Over the night of July 20th (20/7/18) through to July 21st (21/7/18) 422 members of the White Helmets were evacuated from Syria across the UNDOF Zone to Israel. From there they were transferred into Jordan.
They currently reside in a secure camp in Jordan. While the western nations who demanded their evacuation debate whether they really want to allow battle hardened Al Qaeda fighters roam free on the streets of their cities.
On July 31st (31/7/18) ISIL's Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid decided that they did not want to fulfil the prophecy of a heroic defeat in the Yarmouk River Basin after all. Instead they decided to surrender and be transferred to the Syrian desert to the south of the Central Syria area.
There they will likely live under the protection of CJTFOIR in camps in the shadow of the Bobby Sands base. At least until US Democrat Judge Sarah Backus frees them on bail.
Before leaving the Yarmouk River Basin area ISIL committed one last act of horrific violence. On July 25th (25/7/18) they attacked civilians around Suweida City.
At the time this was reported in much of the western media as a simple car bomb attack. However it was much more significant than that taking the form of marauding gun attacks which only ended when the gunman exploded their suicide vests.
These attackers marauded through towns and villages to the north-east of Suweida City including Duma, Tayma and al-Matouna. Duma being around 25km (15 miles) north-east of Suweida City. The attackers were also able to penetrate Suweida City itself where they did detonate a car bomb in the main vegetable market.
Although the Syrians were taken by surprise they were able to bring the attack to an end and fully secure the area by day's end. However not before 258 people had been killed, 180 wounded and at least 30 women and children had been kidnapped by ISIL. Almost all of them followers of the Druze religion.
ISIL are a nihilistic organisation. This means that they have this insatiable need to violence and destruction. That need only grows when they appear weak in the eyes of their supporters. Particularly when they are losing their nerve over fulfilling the religious prophecy they claim to hold so dear.
Therefore it is possible to look too deeply for an explanation as to why ISIL have committed horrific acts of violence and destruction. Violence and destruction is how ISIL validates its existence.
However I think that ISIL may have targeted the Druze in this way in an effort to provoke Israel. In much the same way the Army of Muhammad attempted to provoke Israel by attacking the Druze town of Hadar in November 2017.
This has been something of a pattern of ISIL's behaviour in the period around the July 25th (25/7/18) attack.
On July 24th (24/7/18) ISIL fired rockets into Israel. The belief is that they were doing this in the hope Israel would mistake it for Syrian or Hezbollah rocket fire and retaliate taking the pressure off ISIL. It did not work and Israel responded destroying the ISIL unit responsible for the rocket fire.
On the night of August 1st (1/8/18) ISIL dispatched an assault team of the type used in the July 25th (25/7/18) to attack Israel. They apparently came within 200 metres/yards of the Israel/Syria border when Israeli forces engaged them killing them all.
This has all happened against the introduction on July 19th (19/7/18) of the "Israel as Nation-State of the Jewish People" law.
As the name makes quite clear this declares Israel to be primarily the nation state of the Jewish people. In direct contradiction of Israel's declaration of independence. It also makes Hebrew the only official language of Israel whereas before Arabic was given equal status.
It almost goes without saying that this has not been at all popular amongst Israeli citizens who are not Jewish. There has been particular anger from Israel's Druze citizens who unlike Muslim-Arab citizens have traditionally been well integrated into Israeli society. Particularly its armed forces.
On August 5th (5/8/18) Israel's Druze citizens held the first in a series of mass protests against the nation state law. In both the summer of 2015 and in November 2017 it was similar Druze mass protests that led Israel to threaten intervention in Syria. ISIL may well have been calculating that the appalling July 25th (25/7/18) attack would be enough to tip Israel from threats into action.
Although it sounds strange being attacked by Israel would actually help ISIL. Particularly if those attacks occurred in the Yarmouk River Basin. It would allow them to portray themselves as the one true defenders of Muslims against the Jews. Boosting their popularity at a time when their supporters have got to be feeling disheartened.
Also the decision to allow ISIL to take their Druze hostages with them as they were transferred to the Syrian desert has obviously created significant tension between the Syrian government and Syrian Druze.
That tension was exacerbated on August 4th (4/8/18) when ISIL released a video showing the beheading of Muhannad Toukan Abu Ammar. A 19 year old Druze man who was amongst those kidnapped during the July 25th (25/7/18). The video promised to behead all of the hostages unless the Syrians agreed to exchange them for ISIL fighters it is holding prisoner.
Whatever the rights or wrongs of allowing ISIL to take their hostages with them it did allow the Syrians to take control of town of Qusair on August 1st (1/8/18). This was the last town under the control of ISIL or any other insurgent group in the Yarmouk River Basin.
On August 2nd (2/8/18) total Syrian victory declared in the Yarmouk River Basin.
The operation saw 4,300 Islamist fighters plus their families - roughly 10,000 people in total - transferred to the Sudetenland. Minus 650 heavy weapons including 39 tanks, 29 armoured vehicles and 17 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).
As a result the war in Syria has gone from having six areas to just five areas; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Already Syrian forces have begun to redeploy to the border between Central Syria and the Sudetenland. Some Syrian show-of-force air and artillery strikes have also been reported.
21:00 on 15/8/18 (UK date).
Monday, 13 August 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 1, Day 7.
A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2018/08/operation-featherweight-month-50-week-1.html
In that post I identified the Central Syria area. This makes up the bulk of Syrian territory and is under the control of the Syrian government. I also identified two pockets within that Central Syria area which remain outside of the control of the Syrian government;
The area in the Syrian desert around the Bobby Sands base at al-Tanf which remains under ISIL control.
The East Ghouta area which encompassed the East Ghouta suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus, the East Qalamoun Mountains and the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees. These areas were under the control of a mixture of the Army of Conquest and ISIL.
In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the East Ghouta suburb itself. This operation ended in success on April 12th (12/4/18). The Army of Islam faction of the Army of Conquest surrendered surrendered the town of Douma placing the entire East Ghouta suburb under Syrian control.
While conducting operations within the East Ghouta suburb the Syrians were also attempting to regain control over the East Qalamoun Mountains.
As it has been across Syria the Syrians objective in the East Qalamoun Mountains was to regain control with the minimum of violence and loss of life. This meant that prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout.
Under the terms of what is really that standard surrender offered by the Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.
That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."
Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.
As the fighting raged in East Ghouta itself negotiations were taking place with different groups in the East Qalamoun Mountains over these surrender options. Following the Army of Islam's defeat in East Ghouta itself the groups in the wider Army of Conquest surrendered the East Qalamoun Mountains with the minimum of resistance.
On April 15th (15/4/18) the Army of Islam along with the FSA fragments the Ahmad al-Abo Martyrs Brigade/Faylaq Ahmad al-Abo and the Lions of the East Army/Jaish Osoud al-Sharqiya surrendered a number of areas. These included the main towns of Dumair, Ruhayba and Nasiriyah.
On April 17th (15/4/18) the Army of Islam formalised their surrender in those areas. Agreeing to transfer to Jarablus within the Garvaghy Road area. The Lions of the East Army also formalised their surrender agreeing to join the Amnesty Brigades.
Despite giving up territory the al-Abo Martyrs however pledged to continue fighting as part of the Army of Conquest. On April 18th (18/4/18) the al-Abo Martyrs even went so far as to assassinate Shaher Jumea who had been negotiating with the Syrians on their behalf.
The transfer of the Army of Islam began on April 19th (19/4/18). By the time it was completed on April 22nd (22/4/18) 6,500 fighters plus their families had been transferred to the Garvaghy Road area. During this period there was little in the way of any fighting.
On April 21st (21/4/18) all armed groups in the East Qalamoun Mountains including the al-Abo Martyrs formally surrendered. They agreed to be transferred to the Garvaghy Road and the Sudetenland areas. Completed on April 23rd (23/4/18) this saw around 3,200 fighters plus their families transferred.
On April 25th (25/4/18) Syrian forces formally entered and raised the Syrian national flag over the towns of Ruhaybah and Jayroud. This marked the complete and total liberation of the East Qalamoun Mountains area.
The Battle of East Ghouta saw all the Islamist groups unite to attack Syrian forces across the country. In an effort to support the Army of Islam in the battle by dividing the Syrian forces.
This Islamist alliance included ISIL who began attacking the Syrians from the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrian lines around the Yarmouk Camp collapsed allowing ISIL to take control of the adjoining al-Qadam district to the west and the adjoining Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. Both of which are districts of Damascus itself.
On April 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians began an operation to recover the al-Qadam and Hajar al-Aswad districts and to expel ISIL from the Yarmouk Camp completely.
Any attempt to fight a battle within the Yarmouk Camp was always going to be particularly challenging. As with the Old City districts in Raqqa or Mosul it is a tightly packed maze of narrow alleyways and chaotic side streets. It has only three of what would normally be considered roads meaning that you cannot use tanks and armoured vehicles.
Instead troops on foot have to comb through it room-by-room, house-by-house, street-by-street in slow moving and intense fighting. Although its probably not something anyone wants to dwell on many of those killed during the fighting in the Old City districts of Raqqa and Mosul were not shot or blown up. Instead they were stabbed or beaten to death in bloody bare-knuckle fights.
Added to that in ISIL you have an enemy that thinks nothing of rigging the buildings in a street with explosives. Then detonating those explosives in order to demolish the buildings onto advancing troops and civilians being held prisoner.
So in order to avoid that bloodshed and destruction the Syrians began their operation with shelling and airstrikes as a show of force. That show of force was accompanied by an offer to transfer the roughly 1,200 fighters plus their families to either the Sudetenland or the pocket in the Syrian desert.
Sadly that offer was rejected by ISIL and ground operations began on April 20th (20/4/18).
The other problem presented by the Yarmouk Camp is that it was surrounded on two sides by areas under the control of the Army of Conquest. The al-Tadamon district to the north-east and the Yalda district to the south-east.
As such the first day of fighting was focused on the al-Tadamon district in order give the Syrians access to the camp itself and cut the camp off from the Yalda district. On that first day of fighting Syrian forces were able to liberate the Iman Ali Mosque prompting a surrender of the Army of Conquest groups in the al-Tadamon district.
The Syrian operation was in fact being led by Palestinian groups. Most notably the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Palestinian Liberation Army (PLA). The military wing of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation.
On April 23rd (23/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies opened up a new axis to the south-east of the Yarmouk Camp. This focused on the Zein neighbourhood which divides the Yalda district and the Hajar al-Aswad districts. They were quickly able to liberate the Mujaheddin Mosque.
In response to these losses ISIL shelled the Qudsayya suburb of Damascus in an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On April 24th (24/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies opened a third axis at the Qadam district to the west. They rapidly liberated the al-Baradi and al-Baradat neighbourhoods. This effectively cut the Qadam district in half giving them access to the Hajar al-Aswad district and the Yarmouk Camp through the Jorah Groves.
In response to these loses ISIL shelled the Nahr Aisha district of Damascus in an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On April 26th (26/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies opened a fourth axis at the south-west of the Qadam district. Specifically at the Madaniyah neighbourhood. They also called upon the Army of Conquest to surrender their positions in the Yalda district.
On April 27th (24/4/18) the Army of Conquest did give the Syrians and their Palestinian allies permission to enter the Yalda district but stopped short of surrendering. The Syrians and their Palestinian allies also made progress in the Madaniyah, al-Jouli and al-Asali neighbourhood of Qadam district allowing them to progress in the north-east of the Yarmouk Camp along the 30th Street Road.
In response to these loses ISIL shelled the Bayader Nadir district of Damascus in an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On April 30th (30/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies broke ISIL's lines in the Madaniyah neighbourhood of Qadam district.
This triggered a largescale collapse in ISIL's defences which saw them withdraw entirely from Qadam district into the Yarmouk Camp. Allowing the al-Jouli and al-Asali neighbourhoods to come completely under the control of the Syrians and their Palestinian allies.
Having been forced to retreat into the Yarmouk Camp at the north-west ISIL then launched an attack from the south-east of the camp. On Army of Conquest positions in the Yalda district.
This prompted the Army of Conquest to formally surrender to the Syrians.
Under the terms of the surrender Al Qaeda fighters plus their families would be transferred to the Sudetenland. Army of Islam fighters plus their families would be transferred to Garvaghy Road. FSA fragments such as the Army of al-Ababil/Jaish al-Ababil would be transferred to Daraa Province in the Yarmouk River Basin area.
By May 1st (1/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies had made progress along the 30th Street Road and consolidated the positions surrendered by the Army of Conquest. Together these gains put them in control of around 20% of the Yarmouk Camp and surrounding districts.
On May 3rd (3/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the Younis Hospital, the Telephone Exchange building and Munif Enadi School. These all sit on the east-to-west portion of the 30th Street Road. Meaning that the Syrians and their Palestinian allies had succeeded in cutting the Yarmouk Camp off from the Hajar al-Aswad district.
May 3rd (3/5/18) also saw the start of the transfer of around 4,000 Army of Islam fighters plus their families to the Sudetenland and around 2,700 Army of al-Ababil fighters plus their families to Daraa Province. However on May 4th (4/5/18) the Army of al-Ababil changed their minds and decided to join the Syrian Amnesty Brigades instead. The transfer of the Army of Islam was completed on May 8th (8/5/18).
On May 8th (8/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies declared the southern half of Hajar al-Aswad district to by fully liberated. Leaving only the northern half of the district to be liberated before they could enter the Yarmouk Camp from the south.
On May 9th (9/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the Japanese Hospital and Sports Town complex. These sit at the south-eastern tip of the Yarmouk Camp bordering the Yalda and al-Tadamon districts.
These gains were celebrated by the announcement of a formal agreement between the Syrian government and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) to rebuild the camp so Palestinian refugees could return to live there.
ISIL responded to this latest round of losses by detonating a car bomb in and shelling Marjah Square in Damascus. In an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On May 10th (10/5/18) ISIL launched mortar attacks on the centre of Damascus. In an effort to kill and injure civilians. However these were widely mistaken for and indistinguishable from Israeli airstrikes which were targeting Damascus at the time.
On May 14th (14/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the Asuad Ibn al-Furat School, the UNRWA School, the Labour Office building, the Jazira roundabout and the Rus roundabout. These all sit either side of the 30th Street Road in both the Hajar al-Aswad district and Yarmouk Camp itself.
On May 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the al-Quds Mosque and surrounding Naqab neighbourhood. This effectively marks the liberation of around 30% of the Yarmouk Camp between the 30th Street Road as it runs north-to-south and the Yarmouk Street road.
On May 16th (16/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies were able to declare the Hajar al-Aswad district fully liberated. ISIL responded by shelling the Victoria Bridge in the Marjah district of Damascus. This saw two civilians killed and 16 wounded.
On May 17th (17/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies entered the Yarmouk Camp from the Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. This meant that ISIL were under attack from all sides within the camp itself.
On May 21st (21/5/18) ISIL finally took up the offer of surrender. This saw them surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the small pocket within the Syrian desert.
On May 22nd (22/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies took full control of the Yarmouk Camp.
This marked the complete closure of the East Ghouta area pocket within the Central Syria area.
17:15 on 13/8/18 (UK date).
In that post I identified the Central Syria area. This makes up the bulk of Syrian territory and is under the control of the Syrian government. I also identified two pockets within that Central Syria area which remain outside of the control of the Syrian government;
The area in the Syrian desert around the Bobby Sands base at al-Tanf which remains under ISIL control.
The East Ghouta area which encompassed the East Ghouta suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus, the East Qalamoun Mountains and the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees. These areas were under the control of a mixture of the Army of Conquest and ISIL.
In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the East Ghouta suburb itself. This operation ended in success on April 12th (12/4/18). The Army of Islam faction of the Army of Conquest surrendered surrendered the town of Douma placing the entire East Ghouta suburb under Syrian control.
While conducting operations within the East Ghouta suburb the Syrians were also attempting to regain control over the East Qalamoun Mountains.
As it has been across Syria the Syrians objective in the East Qalamoun Mountains was to regain control with the minimum of violence and loss of life. This meant that prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout.
Under the terms of what is really that standard surrender offered by the Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.
That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."
Groups who did not wish to join the Amnesty Battalions were instead given the option of being transferred to another part of the country. Once they had disarmed and disbanded as a fighting force.
As the fighting raged in East Ghouta itself negotiations were taking place with different groups in the East Qalamoun Mountains over these surrender options. Following the Army of Islam's defeat in East Ghouta itself the groups in the wider Army of Conquest surrendered the East Qalamoun Mountains with the minimum of resistance.
On April 15th (15/4/18) the Army of Islam along with the FSA fragments the Ahmad al-Abo Martyrs Brigade/Faylaq Ahmad al-Abo and the Lions of the East Army/Jaish Osoud al-Sharqiya surrendered a number of areas. These included the main towns of Dumair, Ruhayba and Nasiriyah.
On April 17th (15/4/18) the Army of Islam formalised their surrender in those areas. Agreeing to transfer to Jarablus within the Garvaghy Road area. The Lions of the East Army also formalised their surrender agreeing to join the Amnesty Brigades.
Despite giving up territory the al-Abo Martyrs however pledged to continue fighting as part of the Army of Conquest. On April 18th (18/4/18) the al-Abo Martyrs even went so far as to assassinate Shaher Jumea who had been negotiating with the Syrians on their behalf.
The transfer of the Army of Islam began on April 19th (19/4/18). By the time it was completed on April 22nd (22/4/18) 6,500 fighters plus their families had been transferred to the Garvaghy Road area. During this period there was little in the way of any fighting.
On April 21st (21/4/18) all armed groups in the East Qalamoun Mountains including the al-Abo Martyrs formally surrendered. They agreed to be transferred to the Garvaghy Road and the Sudetenland areas. Completed on April 23rd (23/4/18) this saw around 3,200 fighters plus their families transferred.
On April 25th (25/4/18) Syrian forces formally entered and raised the Syrian national flag over the towns of Ruhaybah and Jayroud. This marked the complete and total liberation of the East Qalamoun Mountains area.
The Battle of East Ghouta saw all the Islamist groups unite to attack Syrian forces across the country. In an effort to support the Army of Islam in the battle by dividing the Syrian forces.
This Islamist alliance included ISIL who began attacking the Syrians from the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrian lines around the Yarmouk Camp collapsed allowing ISIL to take control of the adjoining al-Qadam district to the west and the adjoining Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. Both of which are districts of Damascus itself.
On April 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians began an operation to recover the al-Qadam and Hajar al-Aswad districts and to expel ISIL from the Yarmouk Camp completely.
Any attempt to fight a battle within the Yarmouk Camp was always going to be particularly challenging. As with the Old City districts in Raqqa or Mosul it is a tightly packed maze of narrow alleyways and chaotic side streets. It has only three of what would normally be considered roads meaning that you cannot use tanks and armoured vehicles.
Instead troops on foot have to comb through it room-by-room, house-by-house, street-by-street in slow moving and intense fighting. Although its probably not something anyone wants to dwell on many of those killed during the fighting in the Old City districts of Raqqa and Mosul were not shot or blown up. Instead they were stabbed or beaten to death in bloody bare-knuckle fights.
Added to that in ISIL you have an enemy that thinks nothing of rigging the buildings in a street with explosives. Then detonating those explosives in order to demolish the buildings onto advancing troops and civilians being held prisoner.
So in order to avoid that bloodshed and destruction the Syrians began their operation with shelling and airstrikes as a show of force. That show of force was accompanied by an offer to transfer the roughly 1,200 fighters plus their families to either the Sudetenland or the pocket in the Syrian desert.
Sadly that offer was rejected by ISIL and ground operations began on April 20th (20/4/18).
The other problem presented by the Yarmouk Camp is that it was surrounded on two sides by areas under the control of the Army of Conquest. The al-Tadamon district to the north-east and the Yalda district to the south-east.
As such the first day of fighting was focused on the al-Tadamon district in order give the Syrians access to the camp itself and cut the camp off from the Yalda district. On that first day of fighting Syrian forces were able to liberate the Iman Ali Mosque prompting a surrender of the Army of Conquest groups in the al-Tadamon district.
The Syrian operation was in fact being led by Palestinian groups. Most notably the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Palestinian Liberation Army (PLA). The military wing of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation.
On April 23rd (23/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies opened up a new axis to the south-east of the Yarmouk Camp. This focused on the Zein neighbourhood which divides the Yalda district and the Hajar al-Aswad districts. They were quickly able to liberate the Mujaheddin Mosque.
In response to these losses ISIL shelled the Qudsayya suburb of Damascus in an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On April 24th (24/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies opened a third axis at the Qadam district to the west. They rapidly liberated the al-Baradi and al-Baradat neighbourhoods. This effectively cut the Qadam district in half giving them access to the Hajar al-Aswad district and the Yarmouk Camp through the Jorah Groves.
In response to these loses ISIL shelled the Nahr Aisha district of Damascus in an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On April 26th (26/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies opened a fourth axis at the south-west of the Qadam district. Specifically at the Madaniyah neighbourhood. They also called upon the Army of Conquest to surrender their positions in the Yalda district.
On April 27th (24/4/18) the Army of Conquest did give the Syrians and their Palestinian allies permission to enter the Yalda district but stopped short of surrendering. The Syrians and their Palestinian allies also made progress in the Madaniyah, al-Jouli and al-Asali neighbourhood of Qadam district allowing them to progress in the north-east of the Yarmouk Camp along the 30th Street Road.
In response to these loses ISIL shelled the Bayader Nadir district of Damascus in an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On April 30th (30/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies broke ISIL's lines in the Madaniyah neighbourhood of Qadam district.
This triggered a largescale collapse in ISIL's defences which saw them withdraw entirely from Qadam district into the Yarmouk Camp. Allowing the al-Jouli and al-Asali neighbourhoods to come completely under the control of the Syrians and their Palestinian allies.
Having been forced to retreat into the Yarmouk Camp at the north-west ISIL then launched an attack from the south-east of the camp. On Army of Conquest positions in the Yalda district.
This prompted the Army of Conquest to formally surrender to the Syrians.
Under the terms of the surrender Al Qaeda fighters plus their families would be transferred to the Sudetenland. Army of Islam fighters plus their families would be transferred to Garvaghy Road. FSA fragments such as the Army of al-Ababil/Jaish al-Ababil would be transferred to Daraa Province in the Yarmouk River Basin area.
By May 1st (1/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies had made progress along the 30th Street Road and consolidated the positions surrendered by the Army of Conquest. Together these gains put them in control of around 20% of the Yarmouk Camp and surrounding districts.
On May 3rd (3/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the Younis Hospital, the Telephone Exchange building and Munif Enadi School. These all sit on the east-to-west portion of the 30th Street Road. Meaning that the Syrians and their Palestinian allies had succeeded in cutting the Yarmouk Camp off from the Hajar al-Aswad district.
May 3rd (3/5/18) also saw the start of the transfer of around 4,000 Army of Islam fighters plus their families to the Sudetenland and around 2,700 Army of al-Ababil fighters plus their families to Daraa Province. However on May 4th (4/5/18) the Army of al-Ababil changed their minds and decided to join the Syrian Amnesty Brigades instead. The transfer of the Army of Islam was completed on May 8th (8/5/18).
On May 8th (8/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies declared the southern half of Hajar al-Aswad district to by fully liberated. Leaving only the northern half of the district to be liberated before they could enter the Yarmouk Camp from the south.
On May 9th (9/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the Japanese Hospital and Sports Town complex. These sit at the south-eastern tip of the Yarmouk Camp bordering the Yalda and al-Tadamon districts.
These gains were celebrated by the announcement of a formal agreement between the Syrian government and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) to rebuild the camp so Palestinian refugees could return to live there.
ISIL responded to this latest round of losses by detonating a car bomb in and shelling Marjah Square in Damascus. In an effort to kill and injure civilians.
On May 10th (10/5/18) ISIL launched mortar attacks on the centre of Damascus. In an effort to kill and injure civilians. However these were widely mistaken for and indistinguishable from Israeli airstrikes which were targeting Damascus at the time.
On May 14th (14/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the Asuad Ibn al-Furat School, the UNRWA School, the Labour Office building, the Jazira roundabout and the Rus roundabout. These all sit either side of the 30th Street Road in both the Hajar al-Aswad district and Yarmouk Camp itself.
On May 15th (15/4/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies liberated the al-Quds Mosque and surrounding Naqab neighbourhood. This effectively marks the liberation of around 30% of the Yarmouk Camp between the 30th Street Road as it runs north-to-south and the Yarmouk Street road.
On May 16th (16/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies were able to declare the Hajar al-Aswad district fully liberated. ISIL responded by shelling the Victoria Bridge in the Marjah district of Damascus. This saw two civilians killed and 16 wounded.
On May 17th (17/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies entered the Yarmouk Camp from the Hajar al-Aswad district to the south. This meant that ISIL were under attack from all sides within the camp itself.
On May 21st (21/5/18) ISIL finally took up the offer of surrender. This saw them surrender all but their light weapons and be transferred to the small pocket within the Syrian desert.
On May 22nd (22/5/18) the Syrians and their Palestinian allies took full control of the Yarmouk Camp.
This marked the complete closure of the East Ghouta area pocket within the Central Syria area.
17:15 on 13/8/18 (UK date).
Thursday, 9 August 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 1, Day 3.
My most recent post on the war in Syria was all the way back on May 4th (4/5/18). More than three months ago.
The main reason for this was the World Cup. Although I can't really complain about having to keep quiet while I watch football this did set me back quite badly.
Hosting the World Cup is obviously a matter of great prestige for any nation. The 2018 World Cup was held in Russia. I don't think it's escaped anyone's attention that Russia are a significant player in the war in Syria. So my absence during the World Cup was not totally bunking off. Just 98-99% bunking off.
The World Cup was preceded by and slightly overlapped by Ramadan. The holy Muslim month of fasting. It ends with the Eid al-Fitr which is celebrated in much the same way that Christmas is celebrated in western nations. Families gather together for a few days of public holiday which is normally spent eating all the things they've been unable to eat for the past month.
As a result this is not a period in which you would choose to launch any large military operations. Particularly in a conflict which in some ways has become a competition over who can be the most devout and extreme Muslim.
Therefore in two the three months of my absence not a great deal has happened. Certainly not compared with previous years.
At the time of my last post Syria could be roughly divided into six main areas; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland, Central Syria and the Yarmouk River Basin.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
Since then operations have been focused on eliminating the small presence ISIL maintain along the northern banks of the Euphrates River and along the Iraq/Syria border. Particularly around the towns of al-Dashisha and al-Hawl.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham.
Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include; The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition. Alongside the other elements of the Army of Conquest within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP).
Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.
However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern border of the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.
In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.
To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.
In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
Within the Central Syria there are two small pockets that remain outside of Syrian control.
The first one of these is an area of the Syrian desert around the town of al-Tanf. This remains under the partial control of ISIL.
This ISIL pocket has been created by CJTFOIR who operate a base close to al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thara (MaT).
Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.
The second, much larger, pocket is centred around East Ghouta. This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.
The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains. Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km (20 miles) north-east of Duma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb. The East Ghouta area also includes the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta suburb.
East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam. However their influence reduces the further you get into the East Qalamoun Mountains. An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct FSA.
The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL.
Yarmouk River Basin:
This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.
The Army of Conquest has a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the coalition.
The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operate in the Yarmouk River Basin.
The main group in the area though is the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest. Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the SDF. Others are deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.
Tomorrow I will move on to provide a series of updates on how that situation has changed since my previous post.
17:15 on 9/8/18 (UK date).
The main reason for this was the World Cup. Although I can't really complain about having to keep quiet while I watch football this did set me back quite badly.
Hosting the World Cup is obviously a matter of great prestige for any nation. The 2018 World Cup was held in Russia. I don't think it's escaped anyone's attention that Russia are a significant player in the war in Syria. So my absence during the World Cup was not totally bunking off. Just 98-99% bunking off.
The World Cup was preceded by and slightly overlapped by Ramadan. The holy Muslim month of fasting. It ends with the Eid al-Fitr which is celebrated in much the same way that Christmas is celebrated in western nations. Families gather together for a few days of public holiday which is normally spent eating all the things they've been unable to eat for the past month.
As a result this is not a period in which you would choose to launch any large military operations. Particularly in a conflict which in some ways has become a competition over who can be the most devout and extreme Muslim.
Therefore in two the three months of my absence not a great deal has happened. Certainly not compared with previous years.
At the time of my last post Syria could be roughly divided into six main areas; Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland, Central Syria and the Yarmouk River Basin.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
Since then operations have been focused on eliminating the small presence ISIL maintain along the northern banks of the Euphrates River and along the Iraq/Syria border. Particularly around the towns of al-Dashisha and al-Hawl.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).
The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham.
Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include; The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.
The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.
Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.
However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest.
However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition. Alongside the other elements of the Army of Conquest within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP).
Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.
However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern border of the Sudetenland.
Central Syria:
The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.
The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.
In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.
To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.
In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
Within the Central Syria there are two small pockets that remain outside of Syrian control.
The first one of these is an area of the Syrian desert around the town of al-Tanf. This remains under the partial control of ISIL.
This ISIL pocket has been created by CJTFOIR who operate a base close to al-Tanf designated; "Bobby Sands" which they use to train the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thara (MaT).
Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.
The second, much larger, pocket is centred around East Ghouta. This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.
The East Ghouta area though extends into the East Qalamoun Mountains. Ruhaybah, the main town in the East Qalamoun Mountains, sits around 35km (20 miles) north-east of Duma, the main town in the East Ghouta suburb. The East Ghouta area also includes the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees which sits around 5km (3 miles) south-west of the East Ghouta suburb.
East Ghouta itself and the East Qalamoun Mountains were long under the control of the Army of Conquest. The dominant members of the coalition in the area being Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam. However their influence reduces the further you get into the East Qalamoun Mountains. An area largely controlled by small fragments of the long defunct FSA.
The Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees was long under the control of ISIL.
Yarmouk River Basin:
This area is the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province. These run along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) zone.
The Army of Conquest has a presence in the area. Again with Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam being the locally dominant factions within the coalition.
The ISIL affiliate the Army of Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid/Jaish Khalid Ibrahim al-Walid also operate in the Yarmouk River Basin.
The main group in the area though is the Southern Front. This is a loose coalition of FSA fragments which did not join the Army of Conquest. Backed by particularly Britain and Jordan they are a difficult group to place ideologically. So fragments are secular like the SDF. Others are deeply Islamist and owe more to the Army of Conquest.
Tomorrow I will move on to provide a series of updates on how that situation has changed since my previous post.
17:15 on 9/8/18 (UK date).
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