Operation Featherweight: Month 42, Week 1, Day 2.

In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were at their most powerful.

They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.

Now in the winter of 2017 ISIL have been reduced to just a few scattered positions in Syria. Mainly around the Euphrates River basin.

Within this area anti-ISIL operations have been conducted by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition formed by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in October 2015.

Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

Although they have been supported by Arab fragments of the FSA since the Battle of Kobane in winter 2014 prior to the formation of the SDF the YPG had driven ISIL from the entire Syria/Turkey border from the Euphrates River in the west to Syria's border with Iraq. This was completed in July 2015 with the liberation of Tal Abyad - a border town around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.

In August 2015 the YPG drove ISIL from the city of Hasakah. This sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.

The liberations of Tal Abyad and Hasakah put the SDF in control of a vast area of north-eastern Syria from the Euphrates to Syria's borders with Turkey and Iraq. For operational reasons this area which cuts across parts of several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."

In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates." It's ultimate objective was to liberate the city of Raqqa.

However before that could be achieved the SDF had to advance on Raqqa from their positions close to the Syria/Turkey border. This was done in three phases;

The first phase saw the SDF advance south from positions around 70km (45 miles) north of Raqqa. This was completed in late November 2016 with the SDF taking up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq).

The second phase saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River effectively from where it enters Syria from Turkey. This was completed in January 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq).

The third phase saw the SDF advance to take up positions east of Raqqa. This was completed in March 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq).

On March 23rd (23/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. The adjoining Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the river.

On May 5th (5/11/17) the SDF completed the liberation of the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam.


On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. After of 133 days on intense urban fighting Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th (19/10/17).

While the Wrath of Euphrates operation was still under way the SDF launched a second operation on September 9th (9/11/17). This was codenamed; "Cizre Storm."

The only area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River which does not fall under SDF control as part of Shangri-La is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.

Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.

Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.

The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.

Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).

The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.

The SDF's progress was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.

On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.

Constantly referring to these as; "The First Axis," "The Second Axis" etc gets tedious. So I designated them; "Aisling," "Niamh" and "Siobhan."

The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.

The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.

The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.

On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached and liberated as-Suwar. It then advanced north towards Markadah. On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis united just south of Markadah. They went on to liberate the town on October 20th (20/10/17).

Having united the Niamh and Siobhan axis went on to liberate both the east and west banks of the Khobar from Suwar to the Euphrates River. This was completed on November 6th (6/11/17).

While I have yet to have it confirmed it is my understanding that the combined Niamh and Siobhan axis have now succeeded in liberating both banks of the Khobar River between Suwar and Shadaddi to the north. They have also been making significant progress securing the area between the Khobar and the Madan - Shadaddi Line.

On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.

While fighting to liberate Raqqa and undertaking the Cizre Storm operation the SDF were also advancing along the northern bank of the Euphrates from Karamah to Deir-ez-Zour City. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates.

On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated an area known as Husayniyah area. This sits around 4km (2 miles) north-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone.

As a result its liberation secured SDF control of the northern banks of the Euphrates between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zour. It also linked the Wrath of Euphrates operation with the Aisling axis of the Cizre Storm operation.

On October 20th (20/10/17) that Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl.

On October 22nd (22/10/17) the Aisling axis had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.

On November 5th (5/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated the Sarhit, Shudayha, Younes, Galban and Shaitat Oil & Gas Fields. These small fields sit in an area just beyond the main Omar Oil & Gas Field.

Having raced across the Khobar the Aisling axis then concentrated on securing the area along the banks of the Euphrates between the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone and the Omar Oil & Gas Field.

On November 12th (12/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Busayrah. This sits almost on a island directly where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.

On November 17th (17/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated the town of Diban. This sits around 20km (12 miles) south-east of Busayrah on the northern bank of the Euphrates.

On December 1st (1/12/17) the Aisling axis liberated the town of Abu Hamman. This sits around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Diban also on the northern bank of the Euphrates.

Since then the SDF have been battling to liberate the areas around Darnaj and Suwaydan Jazirah. Both of these towns sit on the northern bank of the Euphrates between Diban and Abu Hamman. Darnaj sits around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Diban while Suwaydan sits around 15km (9 miles) south-east of Diban.

The liberation of Abu Hamman is particularly noteworthy. It sits at the northern boundary of an area traditionally controlled by the Sheitat Tribe. Although the area is thought to continue to be under ISIL occupation the Sheitat tribe have traditionally remained loyal to the Syrian government.

The SDF are currently in the process of negotiating with the Sheitat tribe permission to enter the area to establish it no longer contains and ISIL presence. Aside from the tribe's loyalty to the Syrian government a major sticking point seems to be the restrictions such as checkpoints and civilian evacuations the SDF have imposed as part of their operations.

The Sheitat tribe along with other civilian residents of Shangri-La need to understand that these restrictions are necessary. Often for the protection of the civilian residents.

On November 5th (5/11/17) ISIL conducted Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack against a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) located between the Jafra and al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. It killed at least 100 civilians.

On November 17th (17/11/17) ISIL conducted another VBIED attack against the same IDP camp. On this occasion at least 20 civilians were killed.
 
One of the main ways that the SDF can guard against attacks of this kind is by establishing checkpoints in and around the area. Although these checkpoints seriously disrupt the movements of local residents they are designed to disrupt the movements of ISIL fighters so they can be stopped before they can carry out their attacks.

As for the SDF delaying civilians returning to their homes this is also being done to protect those civilians. It is a widespread tactic of ISIL to lay large amounts of IED's and booby traps in areas under their control. Added to that you have the problem of unexploded munitions that were used to liberate those areas from ISIL.

Clearly those vast amounts of explosives takes a substantial amount of time. Until that task is complete the affected areas remain extremely dangerous. Not just for civilians.

On the day that Raqqa's liberation was announced on October 19th (19/10/17) ISIL booby traps exploded just a few metres/yards away from where the liberation ceremony was taking place. Amid those killed in the explosion was Jac Holmes a 24 year old from Bournemouth, UK who was serving as part of the SDF's International Brigade.

Just on November 25th (25/11/17) more ISIL booby traps exploded in Raqqa killing the members of the SDF who were trying to defuse them. This included another British volunteer serving as part of the SDF's International Brigade. Oliver Hall aged 24 from Portsmouth.

For the SDF's part they do need to make sure the restrictions they impose are lifted as soon as it is safe to do so.

Liberating Abu Hamman and working to liberate the areas between it and Diban has not been the only task the SDF's Aisling axis has been undertaking.

On November 22nd (22/11/17) the Aisling axis launched an advance from the Omar Oil & Gas Field to the Syria/Iraq border. On November 25th (25/11/17) the Aisling axis reached the Syria/Iraq border at al-Bukamal/Abu Kamal - around 125km (75 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

While there is still work to be done backclearing the recently liberated area this marks the completion of the Cizre Storm operation.

The SDF's Shangri-La area now fully encompasses the area to the north-east of the Euphrates River and establishes that river as its southern boundary.

Across that border the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) along with the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga have also been making substantial progress against ISIL.

In April 2015 the ISF liberated the city of Tikrit. This sits in the centre of Iraq around 175km (105 miles) north of the capital Baghdad.

In February 2016 the ISF liberated the city of Ramadi. This western Iraqi city sits around 100km (60 miles) west of Baghdad.

In June 2016 the ISF liberated the city of Fallujah. This also sits in western Iraq around 50km (30 miles) west of Baghdad and 50km (30 miles) east of Ramadi.

In July 2017 the ISF liberated the city of Mosul. This sits in northern Iraq around 400km (240 miles) north of Baghdad and around 130km (80 miles) south of Iraq's border with Turkey.
 
Although CJTFOIR apparently didn't see the need a key part of liberating Mosul was liberating the vast area surrounding Mosul. This was completed in late August 2017 with the liberation of Tal Afar. A town around 80km (50 miles) west of Mosul.

The bulk of the work of liberating the area around Mosul was done by the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militia element of the ISF. In early June 2017 they liberated the village of Tal Sufq which sits on the Iraq/Syria border. In reaching Tal Sufq the PMF liberated some 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) of territory.

In early October 2017 the ISF liberated the Hawija Triangle area. This sits between Mosul and Tikrit.

On October 25th (25/10/17) the ISF launched an operation to liberate the Al-Qaim area. The last population centre under ISIL's control in Iraq this sits in the very west of Iraq's western Anbar Province on the Euphrates River around 15km (9 miles) from the Syrian town of Abu Kamal.

On November 3rd (3/11/17) the ISF with support from Syrian forces liberated Al-Qaim. Since then the ISF have been advancing north to fully liberate the desert area between Al-Qaim and Tal Sufq from ISIL.

This was completed on Saturday (9/12/17) allowing the Iraq government to declare that Iraq has been fully liberated from ISIL.

Despite the complete liberation of Iraq a number of security incidents have continued within the country;

On December 1st (1/12/17) twin car bombings struck in the al-Madin and Alwa districts of Baghdad. Together these bombs killed one person and wounded 10.

On December 5th (5/12/17) a similar car bomb was discovered and safely defused close to Baghdad International Airport.

On December 9th (9/12/17) a car bomb struck in Tikrit killing one person and injuring two others.

Also on Saturday (9/12/17) several mortars/rockets were fired into civilian areas of Tuz Khurmatu. This sits between Tikrit and Mosul. Two people were killed and 10 injured amid significant damage to civilian property.

On May 22nd 2017 (22/5/17) a suicide bomber struck the Manchester Evening News Arena (MENA) in Manchester, UK killing 22 people. On June 36d (3/6/17) a marauding run-over and knife attack killed 8 in the British capital London. On September 15th (15/9/17) there was a failed bomb attack on London's Underground Rail (Metro) network.

On October 31st (31/10/17) a run-over attack killed eight and wounded 11 in New York City, US. As I was sitting down to write this there were reports of a failed bomb attack on New York City's Underground Rail (Metro) system.

My point is that even in nations where ISIL have not held territory it impossible to completely guarantee that ISIL won't be able to launch attacks. Therefore it is equally impossible to guarantee that ISIL will not be able to conduct attacks in Iraq just days after the nation has been liberated.

The liberation of Iraq means that we have gone from a position where large numbers of ISIL fighters were able to control areas where the government had no control. We are now in a position where a small number of ISIL fighters are being forced to hide in areas where the government has full control.

As a result the threat from ISIL to Iraq should slowly start to fade as their ability to conduct attacks is gradually eroded.

Iraq's security of course continues to be threatened by its neighbour to the north, Turkey.  On December 6th (6/12/17) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent military jets to target a camp close to Makmour which is just to the south-east of Mosul.

The camp targeted was a camp for Kurdish refugees who had fled to Iraq and the threat of ISIL to escape Erdogan's persecution of them in Turkey's Kurdish region. Erdogan's airstrikes killed at least three people and destroyed two buildings used to house refugees.

The complete liberation of Iraq and the completion of the Cizre Storm operation's main goal was marked on Saturday (9/12/17) by an agreement between the SDF and the ISF.

The two will now co-operate with each other to ensure that ISIL do not return to the border area between Iraq and Syria's Shangri-La area.

17:55 on 11/12/17 (UK date).