Wednesday 6 September 2017

Another Day, Another Hurricane.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the 19th Century humans have been burning increasing amounts of Fossil Fuels.

This burning of Fossil Fuels leads to the release of Green House Gases (GHG's). This are so named because they trap heat within the Earth's atmosphere causing the globe to warm.

This Global Warming has caused global ice stores both at land and at sea to melt. This has released a huge amount of extra water into what is known as the Water Cycle.

This sees water circulate between the sea, the air and the land. At the same time Global Warming has increased the speed at which water circulates through the Water Cycle.

The result has been a global increase in extreme rain events.

On August 14th 2017 (14/8/17) three days of extremely heavy rain caused a massive landslide in Sierra Leone in west Africa. Officially this claimed the lives of 499 people with 810 missing giving it an unofficial deathtoll in excess of 1,300.

On August 16th 2017 (16/8/17) several days of extremely heavy rain caused the side of a mountain to collapse close to Lake Albert in the Democrat Republic of Congo (DRC).  This landslide crashed into the village of Tora destroying houses and killing more than 200 people.

In June 2017 heavy rainfall triggered flooding across ten provinces in China. This flooding continues having destroyed 18,000 homes and 9kmsq (5milesq) of farmland. It also killed in excess of 200 people.

In late August this flooding spread to China's neighbours Nepal, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan during their annual Monsoon season. There is has killed over 2,500 people including 1,300 people in Pakistan alone.

I am currently very heavily involved in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). On any given day I am barely coping with this task and I am certainly in no position to take on more work. As a result I've not been able to give these weather events the attention I would have liked.

On August 25th (25/8/17) Hurricane Harvey made landfall in the US state of Texas.

This was all American news networks talked about for days so I was aware of it by virtue of the fact it was right in front of me. Even then the reality of the storm didn't really dawn on me until about six hours before it made landfall.

Hurricane Harvey was indisputably a hurricane. However in its effect it was much more like a Monsoon rain storm.

When Harvey made landfall in Corpus Christi it was barely a Category 4 Hurricane with sustained winds of 215kmph (130mph). This is certainly windy compared to a normal day but in terms of hurricanes these were only moderate windspeeds. It also produced a 1.8m (6ft) storm surge which didn't pose much of a challenge to 2.4m (8ft) sea defences.

The real problems arose where it moved inland to the city of Houston where it pretty much stopped still. It then spent the next four days dumping more than a year's worth of rain on the city and its surroundings.

I am extremely glad of the fact that I do not live in the areas around Houston, Texas. However Harvey really caused damage rather than destruction.

Essentially Harvey just covered everything in rain water. As soon as it stopped raining that water quickly drained away.

Obviously this means that houses that were underwater will have to be cleaned thoroughly and some will have to be refurbished entirely. That though is still a lot less effort then building new houses from the foundations up.

Following in the wake of Hurricane Harvey we now have Hurricane Irma.

This made landfall in the Caribbean islands of Anguilla, Saint Maarten and Barbuda overnight. Today it is expected to deliver a glancing blow to both the US territory of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola island when it will make no distinction between the Haiti and Dominican Republic parts of the island.

On Friday (8/9/17) Hurricane Irma is likely to score a direct hit on Cuba. It is then expected to turn where one of several things could happen.

Ideally Irma will turn far to the east taking it out over the Atlantic Ocean where it will burn itself out without doing any further damage.

It is also possible that it will turn far to the west taking it out over the Gulf of Mexico putting the US states of Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Louisiana and Texas at risk.

At this point what looks most likely to happen though is that Irma will turn only slightly to the east. This will take through the Bahamas and onto the US States of Florida and North and South Carolina.

Hurricane Irma is a much more serious storm than Hurricane Harvey. It is already an extreme Category 5 hurricane and if the hurricane scale went up to a Category 6 it would be approaching it.

Irma has sustained winds of nearly 300kmph (185mph). Winds of that strength are the equivalent of a bomb going off. They can quite easily flatten even sturdy buildings and can certainly bring down trees and powerlines.

Although it is hard to be sure until right before landfall there are predictions of a storm surge it excess of 3.3m (11ft). This is the equivalent to having a speeding truck crash into your house.

Irma is also an extremely large storm some 400km (240 miles) wide and relatively slow moving at around 25kmph (16mph).

That means that if you are in the area which is hit by the brunt of the storm it could be several days before the storm passes and anyone can come into rescue you. Barbuda was hit more than six hours ago. No-one has heard from it since.

Therefore if you are in the potential path of Hurricane Irma you really need to pay attention to it.

That means obeying evacuation orders when they're issued.

Even if no evacuation order is issued you need to be prepared to evacuate at short notice or potentially ride out the storm.

That means having a "Go-Bag" prepared with clothes and identity documents and making sure you have enough food, water and basic medical supplies stockpiled to potentially last you and your family for a week.

More detailed information is available at the US govt website http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

19:55 on 6/9/17 (UK date).

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