Operation Featherweight: Month 36, Week 2, Day 1

In the autumn of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the brink of defeat. Syrian forces had limited them to an area around the city of Raqqa along the Euphrates River basin in the north-east of the country.

This is obviously very bad news for ISIL. Not least because the group's motto is; "Maintain and expand." So in December of 2013 ISIL invaded the south-western province of Syria's neighbour Iraq. 

In the summer of 2014 ISIL also invaded northern Iraq. This included seizing the city of Mosul which has functioned as ISIL's de facto capital in Iraq ever since.

In June 2016 the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) liberated the city of Fallujah. This marked the functional liberation of all of Anbar province although ISIL do continue to maintain some camps within the vast unpopulated desert areas of Anbar.

In October 2016 the ISF launched an operation to liberate Mosul. Eight months later ISIL have lost control of all of Mosul expect for a handful of streets within the Old City district of the city.

With the exception of the town of Tal Afar ISIL have also lost control of the roughly 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) area between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria. 

On June 7th (7/7/17) the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias which function as part of the ISF liberated the village of Tal Safuq which functions as one of the main border crossings. This adds to the H47 Highway crossing that the PMF liberated on May 29th (29/5/17).

Directly across the border from these freshly liberated areas you have the area designated; "Shangri-La." Now in excess of 15,000kmsq (9000 milesq) Shangri-La occupies almost the entire area of north-eastern Syria beyond the Euphrates River basin. It is a under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) who are a Kurdish-led coalition of moderate Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces.

The SDF also control a smaller area in north-western Syria. Roughly 4,500kmsq (2,100milesq) in area this is centred around the city of Afrin and is designated; "The Afrin Canton."

Therefore the logical way to defeat ISIL and bring about a political transition in Syria would be for the SDF to join up the Afrin Canton and Shangri-La creating a continuous area controlled by moderate forces. This would cut ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey and allow for the establishment of a Safe Haven in which civilians could be protected.

This is exactly what the SDF set about doing. 

On December 30th 2015 (30/12/17) the SDF liberated the Tishrin Dam which is the main crossing point from Shangri-La over the Euphrates. On May 31st 2016 (31/5/16) the SDF launched an operation to liberate Manbij which is really the first town on the western banks of the Euphrates from Shangri-La. This operation was successfully completed on August 13th 2016 (13/8/16).

The problem has always been Syria's neighbour to the north Turkey. Its President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long harboured a desire to re-establish the Ottoman Empire.

The original Ottoman Empire was established by victory over the Mamluk Empire in the battle of Dabiq Meadow in 1516. Dabiq Meadow is located in northern Syria. So Erdogan has long backed ISIL and associated groups to overthrow the Syrian government so Erdogan can claim the nation as part of his empire.

Obviously then Erdogan is very opposed to the SDF cutting ISIL's supply lines to and from Turkey. So on August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces into northern Syria to reinforce irregular and therefore illegal Turkish forces known as the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

Erdogan's forces were sent to a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area of northern Syria that has been designated; "Garvaghy Road." On its western boundary it has the towns of Azaz/Kilis and the Euphrates River on its eastern boundary.

Erdogan's purpose of invading and illegally occupying Garvaghy Road was to prevent the SDF from linking up Shangri-La and Afrin Canton. This would allow Erdogan to keep supplying ISIL in Raqqa to the south-east and the allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition in Aleppo City in the south-west.

On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) all of Aleppo City was liberated from the Army of Conquest by Syrian forces. This obviously ended their supply line with Turkey via Garvaghy Road and forced them into a small area of territory centred around Idlib City - just south of Afrin Canton. This area has been designated; "The Sudetenland."

By way of compensation for the liberation of Aleppo City Russia agreed to establish the Astana Process alongside Syria, Iran and Turkey to tackle the conflict in Syria. This led to the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire on December 27th 2016 (27/12/16).

Since its creation is has never been quite clear who the Astana Ceasefire does and doesn't apply to. At Erdogan's insistence it does not apply to the SDF and it also does not apply to ISIL and Al Qaeda.

The confusion though arises in the form of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The Army of Conquest is made up of a number of Islamist groups such as the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) alongside the UTA and fragments of what used to be known as the Free Syria Army (FSA).

The problem is that the Army of Conquest is allied with ISIL. It is also headed by Al Qaeda/The Base's Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front (ANF).

Therefore the question has always been whether a ceasefire that doesn't apply to ISIL and Al Qaeda applies to groups that are allied with ISIL and Al Qaeda?

The second round of meetings in the Astana Process took place on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17).

This meeting attempted to answer the question of the Astana Ceasefire by establishing the Astana Ceasefire Mechanism. This established a mechanism to allow Russia, Iran and Turkey to argue about who the ceasefire did and didn't apply to. The meeting also attempted to address the ceasefire question by pledging to separate non-extremist groups from the Army of Conquest coalition.

The Astana Process is of course not the only diplomatic effort to tackle the conflict in Syria. There is also the longstanding United Nations (UN) sponsored Geneva Process. To the UN's shame the Geneva Process has never been about bringing peace to Syria. Instead its entire purpose has been to empower groups such as ISIL and the Army of Conquest to overthrow the Syria government.

Ever since the establishment of the Astana Ceasefire the main objective of the Geneva Process has been to expand the Astana Ceasefire so it does include Al Qaeda and ISIL affiliated groups.

Despite the Astana Process and the Geneva Process there has so far been no indication of the Astana Ceasefire being applied to the Army of Conquest.

In January the Army of Conquest lost control of the Wadi Barada and Ayn al-Fijr areas close to the Syrian capital Damascus. Since then they have lost control of large areas around Daraa to the south of Damascus and Hama between the capital and Idlib city. As a result the Army of Conquest are now really limited to the Sudetenland area.

The third round of meetings in the Astana Process were held on March 15th (15/3/17) and March 16th (16/3/17). These were rapidly followed the fifth round of meetings on the Geneva Process between March 23rd (23/3/17) to March 31st (31/3/17).

These meetings were accompanied by a massive increase in tensions intended to force the expansion of the Astana Ceasefire to the Army of Conquest.

For example on March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan sent the Turkish air force to strike the SDF and the US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) at the town of Manbij on the eastern boundary of Garvaghy Road. This was intended to signal Erdogan's intention to advance his forces out of Garvaghy Road to sweep the SDF aside and restore Shangri-La to ISIL's control.

Erdogan's airstrikes triggered several days of tense stand-off. This was only brought to an end when Russia facilitated the deployment of Syrian forces to act as a buffer between Erdogan's forces and the SDF.

On March 11th (11/3/17) and March 15th (15/3/17) the Army of Conquest launched large-scale suicide bomb attacks against Damascus. They followed this up on March 19th (19/3/17) by launching a short-lived conventional military assault on the Syrian capital.

On March 22nd (22/3/17) Army of Conquest supporters conducted a marauding run-over and stabbing attack against the Parliament building in the UK capital London. The Army of Conquest also used this day to launch a short-lived conventional military assault against the Syrian city of Hama.

On March 24th (24/3/17) Army of Conquest supporters ambushed and killed six members of the Chechen National Guard in the Russian region of Chechnya. It is the Chechen National Guard who are helping to provide security within liberated Aleppo City.

Both the third round of meetings in the Astana Process and the fifth round of meetings in the Geneva Process ended without the inclusion of the Army of Conquest in the Astana Ceasefire. This led to a further increase in tensions and violence from the Army of Conquest and its supporters.

On April 3rd (3/4/17) Army of Conquest supporters attempted multiple bomb attacks on the underground rail (Metro) system in the Russian city of St Petersburg. Although only one of the bombs exploded the attack succeeded in killing 10 civilians.

St Petersburg was chosen because it was Russia's capital during the 1917 revolutions. Beyond the loss of life this was intended as a threat to Russia that a new revolution could be arranged if the Army of Conquest were included in the Astana Ceasefire.

The bomber was from Kyrgyzstan on China's border. As such it also served as a threat to that permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC).

On April 4th (4/4/17) the Army of Conquest conducted a Sarin gas Chemical Weapons attack on the town of Khan Shiekhoun close to Hama City. The hope was that this would be blamed on the Syrians and immediately trigger a backlash that saw the Army of Conquest included in the Astana ceasefire.

Although it didn't get the Army of Conquest included in the Astana Ceasefire the Khan Shiekhoun did prompt the US to conduct missile strikes against the Syrians. A dramatic development that saw the US in effect acting in support of ISIL.

While the Army of Conquest and their supporters were trying to exert pressure on the international community to include them in the Astana Ceasefire the international community was exerting pressure on Erdogan to withdraw from Garvaghy Road.

On April 16th (16/4/17) Turkey held a referendum on granting Erdogan Sultan-like powers. The expectation from Turkey's allies was that Erdogan would use this moment to announce the withdrawal from Garvaghy Road as a sign of strength.

No such announcement was forthcoming from Erdogan. Instead he became more aggressive. 

On April 25th (25/4/17) Erdogan launched a week of air and artillery strikes against anti-ISIL forces in both Syria and Iraq. This included the destruction of the SDF's command centre at al-Malikiyah/Derik in Shangri-La.

The fourth round of meetings in the Astana Process took place on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 4th (4/5/17). Here the storm seemed to break. It was announced that fighting against all groups except ISIL and Al Qaeda would cease in four areas of Syria; The Sudetenland. Homs Province, Daraa Province and Quneitra Province.

Primarily this announcement was concerned with the trading relationship between Turkey and Russia. On November 24th 2015 (24/11/15) Turkey shot down a Russian jet that was conducting airstrikes against the Army of Conquest in what is now the Sudetenland. 

This triggered off tit-for-tat trade sanctions between the two nations. At the start of April 2017 all that was really left of this trade war was a Turkish ban on the import of Russian Wheat and a Russian ban on the import of Turkish Tomatoes. 

By making the Astana Four Areas announcement Russian President Vladimir Putin was able to get Erdogan to lift the Wheat ban while keeping the Tomato ban in place. However Turkey has since tried to back out of the deal by imposing new, prohibitive tariffs on Russian Wheat imports.

The announcement was also intended as little Russian kick up the bum to get the US to do more to control its nominal ally Turkey. 

Even what you call these Astana Four Areas is highly complex.

Inspired by calls for Shangri-La to be established as a formal Safe Haven under SDF control Erdogan wants these four areas to be called; "Safe Havens." For any responsible member of the international community that description would be extremely legally problematic.

Designating Shangri-La as a Safe Haven is legally very simple. In 2014 the UNSC passed resolution 2170. This is a Chapter 7 resolution authorising all means necessary to defeat ISIL.

It means that if ISIL operate in your country you are no longer considered a nation. Therefore those fighting ISIL can come into your country and do whatever they need to do to defeat ISIL. That includes establishing Safe Havens to protect civilians from ISIL.

The problem with the Astana Four Areas is that they are not intended to defeat ISIL or protect civilians from ISIL. In fact they're being established to protect groups that are allied with ISIL. Therefore turning them into legal Safe Havens would require a separate UNSC resolution.

The groups the Astana Four Areas are intended to protect are allied with ISIL and include Al Qaeda. UNSCR 2170 not only authorises but obligates nations to do everything in their power to defeat ISIL and Al Qaeda. As such UNSCR 2170 forbids the establishment of the Astana Four Areas as Safe Havens.

Russia has already brought the issue of the Astana Four Areas to the UNSC. This has very much annoyed the UNSC because they understand what a massive legal headache it presents. Russia's intention seems to be remind everyone how easy a step it would be by comparison to formalise Shangri-La and Afrin Canton as Safe Havens.

Aside from attempting to nudge the US into action at the UN Russia is also trying to nudge them into action on the ground in Syria. Specifically at a place called al-Tanf.

Al-Tanf is one of the main border crossings between Syria and Iraq. It is located around 280km (17 miles) east of Damascus, 180km (110 miles) south-east of Palmyra and around 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.

Al-Tanf has long been used by Jordanian and British SOF's to train another armed faction within Syria known as the Southern Front. This is primarily made up of factions of the FSA. Recently the US has been trying to muscle in deploying its own SOF's to the al-Tanf base. I'm very tempted to designate it; "The Bobby Sands."

This is an area that I'm not particularly happy writing about because it is so far in the future. 

However once Shangri-La has been designated a Safe Haven and Garvaghy Road has been sealed we can start talking about an alliance between the SDF and the moderate elements of the Southern Front. Controlling around 60% of Syrian territory between them such an alliance would be an important step towards a political transition in Syria.

As they say though a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. If the US refuses or screws up that first step we can forget about any political transition. Instead it will simply be a case of the Syrians expelling the foreign Islamist forces and restoring complete control over all of their territory.

Almost on the day that the Astana Four Areas were announced the Syrians have been gently probing towards al-Tanf. The purpose being to remind the US of the need to start its journey. 

Unfortunately this all seems to have gone completely over the Americans heads. They've responded to the probing of al-Tanf with increasing aggression.

The first of the series of incidents at al-Tanf began on May 14th (14/5/17) with a Syrian convoy approaching the area. This prompted several days of discussions in which the US contacted Russia using deconfliction channels. Russia then contacted Syria, Iran and Turkey under the Astana Ceasefire mechanism. As was planned the Syrian vehicles didn't back off and the US conducted airstrikes against them on May 18th (18/5/17).

The second incident occurred on June 6th (6/6/17) when again a Syrian convoy approached the al-Tanf area. On this occasion the US didn't bother with communication instead immediately conducting airstrikes.

Invoking the language of the Astana Four Areas the US then unilaterally declared al-Tanf to be a deconfliction zone. As al-Tanf has not and currently is not being used in the fight against ISIL and associated groups that is not something the US can do without the consent of the Syrian government or that new UNSC resolution I mentioned.

The US however continued to aggressively escalate the situation. On June 14th (14/6/17) they deployed an advanced High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) rocket launching system to al-Tanf. The implication being that they intended to use the base and the weapons system to attack the Syrians rather than ISIL and associated groups.

What seems to be rendering the US unable to pick up the extremely heavy hints everyone is dropping for them is that they still seem to be in the grips of lunatic Neo-Conservative conspiracy theories.

Within Iraq the PMF have secured both the Rutba/al-Tanf and the Tal Safuq border crossing. Rather than being a necessary step to liberate all of Iraq's territory the US seems to be viewing this as an elaborate Iranian conspiracy to establish a land bridge across Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

On May 29th (29/5/17) twin suicide bombings tore through the Iraqi capital Baghdad including at the al-Fuqma Ice Cream Parlour. Combined these bombings killed 29 people. The attackers entered Iraq from Syria via Anbar Province. However that little detail seems complete irrelevant to the US.

In spewing this paranoid conspiracy theory the Neo-Conservatives have accidentally revealed why they created and supported groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the first place.

Certainly since 2003 Shia dominated Iran, Shia dominated Iraq, Shia-led Syria and the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah have been close allies. The Neo-Conservatives backed quasi-Sunni groups like ISIL and the Army of Conquest in the hope of destroying the land bridge that already existed between these allies.

So I don't believe that the PMF's recent movements are part of an Iranian conspiracy. However even if they were I don't see the recent developments as a win or a loss. Merely a return to the status quo.

The Neo-Conservatives of course have been doing all this in the name of Israel. For the past couple of days Israel has been taking pot-shots at southern Syria around the Golan Heights. In order to signal to the US that they can more than cope with the situation returning to what it has been since the 1980's.

Having been completely unable to grasp the situation at al-Tanf the US has stumbled into escalating the situation further. On June 6th (6/6/17) they forced the SDF to launch an assault on Raqqa. 

This is just a stunning strategic failure.

So far the fighting in Raqqa has been extremely light. That's because in the eight months the US has been hyping up the Raqqa operation ISIL have already largely fled the city in favour of coming to blow up a concert venue near you soon.

Due to the US' failure to seal Garvaghy Road prior to announcing plans for a Raqqa operation the only thing preventing ISIL from heading to particularly Libya and Europe are the Syrian forces who established a line of control back in early March. Europe in particular certainly hasn't given the Syrians much incentive to protect them from ISIL.

At worst the Raqqa operation is intended to get Kurdish elements of the SDF wiped out. This will allow Erdogan's forces to advance from Garvaghy Road into the vacuum restoring Shangri-La to ISIL's control. This is what the operation was planned to do all the way back in October 2016.

At best the Raqqa operation is intended to allow the US to declare that ISIL have been defeated allowing them to end their support for the SDF. Erdogan's forces in Garvaghy Road will then be free to attack the SDF restoring Shangri-La to ISIL control.

It seems the folly of the Raqqa operation is obvious to everyone except the Americans. So the Russians have been forced to give them another little nudge.

On June 18th (18/6/17) Syria flew one of their ancient, creaking and soon to be replaced Su-22 ground attack aircraft over SDF forces participating in the Raqqa operation. The intention being to highlight the strategic threat the Raqqa operation places the SDF under.

Unfortunately this too went completely over the Americans head's so they shot down the aircraft. The hint was dropped again on June 20th (20/6/17) only this time with a drone. Again the Americans missed the point and shot it down.

With the US seemingly unaware of its failings Erdogan has become emboldened. Rather than withdrawing forces from Garvaghy Road since last Thursday (22/6/17) Erdogan has been increasing the number of regular forces there.

Within Turkey the pro-Erdogan press are reporting those troops are being deployed for an imminent operation to expel the SDF from Afrin Canton. Thus linking the Sudetenland with Garvaghy Road.

Oh and if you were wondering I've been discreetly preparing this post since Friday (23/6/17).

16:35 on 27/6/17 (UK date).