Saturday, 20 June 2015

Eurovision: It Never Leaves You.

This coming Thursday (25/6/15) sees a big meeting of European Union (EU) leaders European Council (the technical side of the EU) Summit. Preparations for this meeting have been dominated by two main issues;

The Greek economic crisis. In short Greece went bankrupt back in 2009. However rather then let this happen the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) formed what is known as "The Troika" and drew up a convoluted system that would allow them to pay Greek banks to buy Greek government debt. However in return for each tranche of bank funding the Troika expected the Greek government to reduce it's borrowing.

In early 2015 the far left SYRIZA coalition were elected in Greece on a platform to scrap this plan. Instead they want the Troika funding to continue without the overall reduction of debt. Some have likened SYRIZA's position to a game of poker where they're bluffing in order to secure a better deal. Others though have likened it to police and fire fighters pleading with a man standing on a ledge threatening to jump.

The other big issue has been the migration crisis. At a meeting of EU foreign ministers Italy which bears the brunt of crisis urged other EU nations to house some of the migrants until it can be determined whether they are legitimate refugees fleeing persecution or economic migrants who should be deported. While this process is taking place EU members states are allowed to hold asylum seekers in detention centres.

Preparations for the European Council Summit also coincided with Global Security (GLOBSEC) conference in Bratislava, Slovakia. This is a non-governmental meeting that it open to current and prospective members of both the EU and NATO. Although US President Obama has clearly got some issues that he needs to work through the biggest threat to Europe's security at the moment is not Russia. Instead it is the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in nearby Syria and Iraq. Specifically it is the huge wave of refugees the conflict has created.

This is particularly challenging problem because the route taken by these refugees will often see them cross the sea to land in Greece - an EU member. However they will then often travel by land from Greece into non-EU states such as Macedonia and Serbia before trying to re-enter the EU through Hungary. Migrants will also often land in Albania before crossing into Serbia and Macedonia on route to either Greece or Hungary. Given the local tensions getting all these governments to co-ordinate their efforts is really challenging.

It is also vital though because the overwhelming majority of those fleeing ISIL territory are legitimate refugees entitled to asylum. However with one of the suspects in the Tunisian Bardo Museum terror attack recently turning up in Italy it's clear there needs to be careful monitoring to filter out potential terrorists.

The problem also flows in the opposition direction because now western European nations such as the UK are getting better at stopping ISIL recruits travelling directly to Turkey many are now travelling to nations like Bulgaria and Macedonia before travelling on to Turkey.

Although the Irish Fine Gael government of Enda Kenny has been a bit worrying of late the UK's main line of communication with the EU's southern states that are disproportionally affected by both the economic and migrants crisis has been the Madeleine McCann case. This dates back to 2007 when a British girl - Madeleine McCann - went missing in Portugal whilst on a family holiday. As far as the Portuguese authorities are concerned she was killed by her parents who hid the body. However they can't close the case until they find the body. In the meantime the UK authorities have been working to keep the McCann's out of prison and the story alive. Part of this was a ruling by the UK High Court that Madeleine McCann was still alive. The Judge who made that ruling went on to rule against me in my grandmother's case during the COP18 Summit. Her credibility has never recovered.

In roughly October 2013 the UK speculated that Madeleine McCann may have been abducted by burglars. This was a reference to my crime problem. Greece responded with a story of Roma Gypsies abducting a blond haired, blue eyed little girl in a story that caused uproar across the EU. Eventually DNA testing revealed that the girl was in fact the natural child of the couple. This left all the people who couldn't believe that such a beautiful Aryan child could be born to dirty, gypsy parents looking distinctly racist.

Apart from mocking the UK this was Greece warning about the rise of the fascist Golden Dawn Party. Much like Svoboda in Ukraine and the AWB in South Africa Golden Dawn fly a flag with a rune design that we are constantly assured is definitely not inspired by the Nazi Swastika.

It should come as no surprise then that on Thursday (18/6/15) another sensational story emerged of dirty foreigners trying to kidnap British children who were on holiday in Cyprus. Initially the story was that a group of Romanian - no connection to Roma gypsies - tried to snatch a child into a car but were stopped when other hotel guests intervened. However as information from the Cypriot police and video footage emerged it turned out that a group of drunk British holiday makers accused a Bulgarian man of taking photographs of their children in the bar where they were getting drunk. They physically attacked the man who sought protection first from the hotel staff and then from the police who removed him from the scene. The police also conducted a search of the man's phone and camera and found the allegations by the drunks to be completely untrue.

I was actually accosted on Twitter by someone claiming to work alongside one of the drunk British group as a teacher. He kept insisting that teachers - who are on the public payroll - don't receive public money. With British teachers protesting over austerity cuts today this seemed a rather damaging position for him to take. However eventually one of the rarest things ever seen on Twitter occurred and he actually apologised for trying to argue with me. I'm guessing he must be new to the Internet.

I think what the Britain was trying to do was show support for SYRIZA in their negotiations with Greece by raising the spectre of the SYRIZA government being replaced by a Golden Dawn government in the event of a default. The UK's intention of course being to keep the Eurozone crisis going for as long as possible. However Cyprus' 2015 Eurovision entry appeared to express regret that due to their reliance on an EU bailout they failed to properly speak up in defence of Russia over Ukraine. On Friday (19/2/15) the SYRIZA leader travelled to Russia where he was promised emergency funding should the EU pull the plug. This seems to have caused the EU to blink in negotiations although there will be an emergency summit next week.

In light of the Ukraine crisis I'm struggling to work out Russia's position towards Greece. They could genuinely be trying to encourage them to leave the EU in response to the EU sanctions on Russia. Alternatively they could be trying to give SYRIZA just enough confidence to do further damage to the Eurozone economy from within.


Anyway on what I'm sure is a completely unrelated note it's emerged that in the months prior to the Charleston shooting South Carolina had been trying to secure Federal funding to help the victims of crime - apparently there's been a bit of a spike since August 2014.

Within six hours of South Carolina prosecutors apparently getting the suspect to 'confess' to a racially motivated hate crime the Federal government released USD29million of funds to South Carolina.

15:40 on 20/6/15 (UK date).




Friday, 19 June 2015

Fun With Flags.

I don't want the job of devil's advocate full time. After all that's the role of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).

However yesterday pictures were released of Dylann Roof - the suspected Charleston shooter - wearing a jacket bearing the flags of apartheid-era South Africa and Rhodesia. We were left to speculate on whether these were indications of racism. Conveniently the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) happened to ruling on just this issue in relation to the use of the Confederate flag on Texas vehicle license plates. Taken together these two issues have a massive significance to the current conflict in Ukraine.

The ethnically Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine have appropriated a version of the Confederate flag as the emblem of their new state - "Novorossiya." This has been used by the US to imply that the rebels are racist. However it's a bit more complicated then that. Although the US civil war was undoubtedly about slavery it was also a war of succession with the Confederate states wanting to succeed from the Unionist states whose far away government was trying to impose laws they didn't agree with. I think this story of succession would resonate with a bunch of Ukrainians who probably aren't experts in US civil war history.

The flags used by the US backed Kiev side of the conflict are even more frightening. The battle flag of the Azov battalion and the Svoboda political party they are formed from is the interlinked English letter's "N" and "I" symbolising "National Identity" superimposed on the Ukrainian national flag. The style of the lettering is known as runes familiar from the Nazi "SS." However we are constantly reassured that this flag is not inspired by the Nazi Swastika.

Another organisation that uses this type of rune design in their flag is South Africa's white supremacist Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB). Their flag features three sevens (777) arranged in a circle sometimes imposed on a Swastika-style red and white circular background and sometimes super imposed on the national flag of the Netherlands which also made up the bulk of the apartheid-era South African flag.

It's widely suspected that Malaysia Airlines chose to crash flight MH17 over Ukraine because it was a Boeing 777 originating in the Netherlands. The intention being to make it look like the Russians did it as a form of protest against the US' support for Kiev's Nazi divisions.

Finally - proving that there is an episode of "Oz" for every occasion - the tattoos of the Aryan Brotherhood characters are pretty much an encyclopedia of coded references to Nazism. However the one they all share is an "N"and and "I" interlinked to represent "National Identity."

Yet the US State Department still can't see any connection between the Kiev government it backs and Nazism.

11:55 on 19/6/15 (UK date).

Edited at around 19:20 on 19/6/15 (UK date) to add;

Here in the UK we are around 5 hours ahead of the US east coast. As a result I have already started drinking. However that is no excuse for me missing the very obvious comparison between the TV show "Oz" and the Charleston Shooting.

At the start of the 4th season a black supremacist guard "Clayton Hughes" gives a gun to a black prisoner "Simon Adebisi." Adebisi then gives that gun to a vulnerable white prisoner "Tarrant" and encourages him to shoot and kill several black prisoners. Adebisi and Hughes then use this example of racist violence to demand the resignation of the unit manager so he can be replaced by a candidate chosen by black community leaders. This candidate then proceeds to banish the white prisoners for the specialist unit so Adebisi can be given free reign.

In the meantime Dylann Roof has appeared in front of Charleston's Chief Magistrate over the shooting. This was a brief hearing intended to establish whether there was a prima facia case to proceed with a trial. So essentially it was just a matter of whether an incident has occurred and whether there is independent witness tying the accused to the crime. Both of these things were confirmed but the Magistrate's conduct was still highly questionable.

For example he failed to ask the accused whether he had been mistreated in custody. He also failed to ask if the accused was aware that Charleston's Mayor had made the hugely prejudicial and intimidating public assertion that the accused would be denied the right to a fair trial and would never released from custody. He also failed to ask the accused if this threat by the Mayor had been used to coerce his co-operation - essentially "Do as you're told or we'll let the black prisoners rape and kill you."

The Magistrate then allowed relatives of the deceased to state on the public record that the accused was guilty of murder without challenge or cross examination. As the proceedings were televised live this, along with the Mayor's statements would clearly prejudice any prospective jury pool.

Despite this the Magistrate still felt that Charleston was capable of delivering a fair trial in the case and committed it to trial. 

19:45 on 19/2/15 (UK date).


Thursday, 18 June 2015

Is Barack Obama the new Earl Turner?

Last night (17/6/15) nine black people where shot and killed at a Church in Charleston, South Carolina, US. As I am not aware of any other murders in the area this puts the current daily murder rate at 9. When the daily murder rate in Baltimore, Maryland dropped this low it was a cause for celebration. However despite there only being one suspected murderer on the loose in Charleston rather then nine in Baltimore this is apparently considered more serious and Twitter is full of people demanding that it be labelled an act of terrorism.

To understand why it's not you really need to look back to the Chapel Hill shootings which took place in near-by North Carolina on February 10th (10/2/15). Despite it being well established that these shootings were the result of a personal dispute over a parking space there was a similar clamour for them to be labelled as an act of terrorism including by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During the arguments that followed much of the American news media finally worked out that terrorists are very focused on what is known as "The propaganda of the deed." That is to say they carry out their attacks in the hope of creating a media frenzy that will send their message far beyond the scene of the crime.

Since then the US media has, as a whole been far less willing to label things as terror attacks in order to avoid giving assistance to the terrorists. For example the recent May 3rd (3/5/15) shooting in Garland, Texas was clearly a terrorist attack and is being investigated and prosecuted as such. However even Fox News were noticeably restrained in their reporting avoiding much of the hyperbole that we'd come to expect.

As I explained at the time of the Chappel Hill shootings to be considered an act of terrorism in the US an act must involve; "The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives." 

Although the Charleston shootings have involved the use of force and violence it is not actually immediately clear whether that use is lawful or not. Also at this point there is certainly nothing to indicate that the act was committed to influence either the government or the public to further a political or social agenda. As such it would be wholly wrong to describe it as an act of terrorism at this time. However that may change as more information becomes available.

The local police have though made it clear that they are investigating this as a possible hate crime and the US Department of Justice (DoJ) have opened a Federal hate crime investigation. Legally this also seems to be a rush to judgement not least because South Carolina doesn't have any anti-hate crime laws making prosecution for a hate crime impossible. As such I think their time would be better spent investigating a crime that actually does exist.

Although the 1994 Violence Against Women Act may also apply I suspect that the DoJ investigation is based on the 1964 Civil Rights Act. To commit the an offence under the act a person has to; "willingly injure, intimidate or interfere with another person, or attempts to do so, by force because of the other person's race, colour, religion or national origin" or because the victim is attempting to engage in one of six federally protected activities such as attending school, voting or acting as a juror. Attending Church does not count.

Given the circumstances a racial motive is certainly a prime avenue of investigation. However for the Police Chief and the Mayor to come out and publicly declare the incident to be racially motivated and certainly to prosecute it they will not only have to prove that there is a racial motive but also rule out all other possible motives. At this point they have certainly not done that.

If then we are simply projecting wild prejudices onto the situation I would like to claim that the shooter was a gay-rights activist angered at the Church's stance on homosexuality or that he was anti-gun rights activists who carried out the attack in the hope the backlash would lead to tougher gun controls. If you've been following the wars in Syria and Ukraine you would recognise this type of black propaganda as very much a signature of the current US administration.

A big problem in proving a racial motive is the fact that the deceased were not targeted at random in public. Instead they had grouped together on private property with a common purpose. Furthermore the shooter appears to have waited for a full hour inside of the building before opening fire and did not attempt to kill all of those present. This suggests a targeted shooting of specific individuals rather then a random attack. The main target was likely to the group's leader - Clementa Pinckney.

Pinckney is also a member of the Democrat party and represents them in the State senate. At the national level the Democrat Party leader - Barack Obama - appointed Eric Holder as the Attorney General and head of the DoJ. Under the Holder the DoJ harassed George Zimmerman for more then 18 months with an unwarranted investigation over the shooting of Trayvon Martin despite Zimmerman having being cleared by a Jury of any criminal wrongdoing. During this time Zimmerman lost his job, his home and his marriage broke down. Following violent altercations in 2014 and again in 2015 Zimmerman appears to have become a target for vigilante justice. Under Holder the DoJ also launched unwarranted, racially motivated investigations over the shootings of Micheal Brown, Tamir Rice and the death by natural causes of Eric Garner which have had similar impacts on the lives of those wrongly targeted. 

Pinckney is also a member of Al Sharpton's National Action Network and as such organised protests demanding the arrest of Micheal Slager (white) over the death of Walter Scott (black) in nearby North Charleston. Following the events in Ferguson, New York City, Seattle and elsewhere these protests carried with them an implicit threat of violent disorder and murder. This appears to have been a factor in South Carolina prosecutors decision to imprison Slager on an unsupportable charge of murder without a Grand Jury indictment or access to legal representation. In short they denied Slager his civil rights under the 4th and 6th amendments to the US Constitution because it was politically convenient to do so.

As such if I was represented the accused I would argue that he did not carry out the shooting to kill black people or to further a political agenda through intimidation or coercion. Instead he simply acted to kill Pinckney and members of his group in order to protect himself and the wider citizens of South Carolina from Pinckney's groups use of terrorist tactics to intimidate and coerce local government officials into disregarding civil rights and effectively kidnapping white people off the street. Obviously there remains the issue of immediacy and why he didn't pursue more conventional means. However I think it is clear that there is something rotten in the South Carolina legal system.

If though it was a racist attack it is likely that the shooter was influenced by a particularly nasty 1978 novel entitled "The Turner Diaries" because they always are. The book tells the story of an America that has been overrun by a totalitarian Zionist government which triggers a race war that the whites - including the books protagonist Earl Turner - win because, as we all know, whites are supreme. Reading up on it again this morning though I have to say that the comparisons between the books fictional government and the current US administration are rather chilling;

The book begins shortly after the government has repealed the second amendment and confiscated everyone's guns under what is known as the "Cohen Act." Given the Democrats constant demands for stricter gun control need I say more.

The fictional government then goes on to introduce digital passports containing all of an individuals personal information that they must carry with them at all times to allow their movements to be tracked. Some 35 years later I suspect the NSA would refer to these passports as "Smartphones" and I'm pretty sure Blackberry are already marketing a "Passport" smartphone.

Next come a waves of repressive anti-racism laws which would certainly please all of America's race and gender activists who are now obsessed with what they term "micro-agressions." In an effort to rid society from the evils of racism the government mandates anti-racism marches. Any white people who do not attend these marches get beaten up by the mob and have their homes and businesses destroyed in scenes that are worryingly similar to Ferguson and Baltimore.

One of the new laws the fictional government introduces makes it a "hate crime" for white people to defend themselves from crimes being committed by non-whites. The current round on increased racial tension that America is currently experiencing really began on August 9th 2014 (9/8/14) with the shooting of Micheal Brown (black) by Darren Wilson (white). At the time of his death Brown was fleeing the scene after committing a robbery. In a further effort to evade arrest Brown then attacked Wilson and was killed. This is one of the clearest examples of justifiable homicide by way of self-defence ever seen.

However despite being immediately aware that this was the case the DoJ under Holder conducted yet another unwarranted, five month hate crime investigation into Wilson even though he had been cleared by a jury of any wrongdoing. During this time Wilson was forced from his job and his home after receiving numerous death threats against himself and his family. During this time the city of Ferguson was subjected constant disruptive protests, multiple nights of rioting and the attempted murder of two police officers. No action has been taken on these matters despite clear evidence of the Brown family inciting the violence.

Then there was the shooting of Tamir Rice in Cleveland, Ohio on November 22nd (22/11/14). At the time of his death the 12 year old Rice was unsupervised in a public place in possession of a deadly weapon. So although this was clearly tragic again examples of justifiable homicide by way of self-defence do not get any clearer. However again Holder's DoJ launched an 8 month hate crime investigation that cost the accused white police officer his job. Under new leadership the DoJ itself admitted that this investigation had been wholly unwarranted and there wasn't sufficient evidence to even put the matter to a jury. Again there were the usual rounds of disruptive protest and death threats and again no action was taken. This is despite there being a pretty good chance of convicting Rice's care giver at the time of felony neglect leading to the death of a child.

The most interesting change in the law though is that rape is made legal. As the book is written by a racist for the benefit of other racists this is to imply that all black men are rapists so to expect them not to rape would be racist. However in the book the new law is supported by feminists who argue that anti-rape laws suggest that gender is biologically pre-determined. Hasn't America recently become obsessed with comparing Caitlyn Jenner with Rachel Dolezal?

Eventually the white supremacists take over America's south-west and engage in what is termed "demographic warfare" to make sure the area is controlled by the right sort of people. Obviously in the book they force all the non-whites out of the area but the principle at work seems to be the same one behind Obama's immigration amnesty which intends to gerrymander traditionally Republican states so the Democrats can control them.

Finally the "Organisation" as it's known launches a nuclear strike against Israel which sees it's Arab neighbour's swarm into Israel killing all the Jews. This is a stated objective of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

So although it's a nutty book for nutters I can't help by worry that Obama has been using The Turner Diaries as his Presidential handbook.

16:35 on 18/6/15 (UK date).

Edited at around 20:10 on 18/6/15 (UK date) to add the above section on hate crimes as per the Turner Diaries which I missed in my rush to dinner and; 

The suspect in the Charleston shooting has since been arrested and pictures of him wearing a jacket bearing the flags of apartheid-era South Africa and neighbouring Rhodesia have been released. Although it is clear that many people have judged this case before any facts were known this has prompted lots of discussion about whether those flags can be considered racist symbols that would support the hate crime allegation.

This is a difficult question because the South African flag in question is not the flag of the white supremacist Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB) which featured so heavily during the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. Also having very nearly been born in Rhodesia I have a fair few examples of the flag knocking around in old atlas' and documents. Does possession of those articles prove me to be a racist?

By an amazing coincidence the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) today happened to be ruling on just this issue. By a margin of 5-4 it was ruled that Texas is allowed to prohibit the use of the Confederate Flag on vehicle license plates because it can be interpreted as a racist symbol and constitute a micro-aggression against non-white citizens.

So I'm inclined to say that the presence of the flags helps to rule out a racist motive and help to rule in black propaganda by anti-gun rights activists. As such I would advise the accused to plead guilty and offer to implicate his co-conspirators in return for a reduced sentence.

However if we're not going to believe that then the identities of the 9 deceased have been revealed. What is clear is that they have all been active members of Sharpton's NAN - a group that has used violence to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. With the Slager case still very much active I would therefore conclude that it is reasonable to assume the common purpose that brought the group together was to plan and carry out further such action. With this being the cornerstone of a defence of justifiable homicide by way of defence of self/other as per SOCTUS Graham V Conner (1989) there is no way under law that the accused can be convicted of any offence relating to the deaths.

As such I assume a writ of habeas corpus is being prepared as I write. If such a thing still exists in South Carolina.

20:55 on 18/6/15 (UK date).



 


Tuesday, 16 June 2015

Operation Featherweight: Month 11, Week 3, Day 5.

With the exception of Saturday's (13/6/15) quick note it's been more then a month since I last wrote on the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). As such what I really need to do is a complete overview of how the situation has changed in that time. After all everything is connected. However that in itself will take quite a lot of time and it seems the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have not been prepared to wait.

Within Iraq the situation has been rather static. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have been able to contain ISIL within Ramadi which sits around 36km (22 miles) west of Fallujah and the town of Karma which sits around 10km (6 miles) north-east of Fallujah. As a result there is no current threat of ISIL overrunning the Iraqi capital of Baghdad which sits around 50km (30 miles) east of Fallujah. The ISF and ISIL continue to battle over the city of Baiji and its oil refinery which sits around 215km (129 miles) north of Baghdad and 40km (24 miles) north of the regional capital Tikrit. Obviously air-strikes continue, people continue to get killed and things continue to get destroyed although there seems to be little sign of either side gaining the upper hand. The US seems happy to continue to delay the ISF's progress by demanding that they receive more training and dispatching a further 450 troops to carry out that training.

Across the bulk of Syria the situation has continued to deteriorate. The US-backed, Al Qaeda-led "Army of Conquest" (Jaish al-Fatah/JAF) have continued to make gains against the Syrian government in the north-west of the country on the border between the Aleppo and Latakia provinces. They are also making gains in the south of the country between the capital Damascus and the borders with Jordan and Israel where massacres have been carried out. In terms of defeating ISIL this is a disaster because the fall of the Syrian government will remove the largest and most effective anti-ISIL force in Syria and the resulting chaos may make it impossible to identify and defeat ISIL in the future.

An example of the important role played by the Syrian government in the fight against ISIL has emerged in Syria's north-eastern Hasakah  province - around half of which makes up the Kurdish Cizire Canton. Since roughly the end of March 2015 ISIL have been battling the YPG for control of the town of Tel Tamr because the town functions as the YPG's main supply hub to it's forces that are battling the Syrian government for control of the city of Al-Hasakah which sits around 36km (22 miles) to the south-east. ISIL's intention being that if they could control Tel Tamr they would then be quickly able to dislodge the YPG from Al-Hasakah. 

However after more then two months of fighting ISIL gave up on their attempts to capture Tel Tamr and instead focused their efforts on dislodging Syrian government forces from Al-Hasakah. This could be an attempt to then attack the YPG from what are currently Syrian government positions in Al-Hasakah or it could be an attempt to lay the ground work for an allegiance with JAF. You will remember that JAF and ISIL teamed up to attack and briefly occupy the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees in the suburbs of Damascus.

Regardless of what ISIL's intentions were their decision to focus on fighting the Syrian government in Al-Hasakah rather then the YPG in Tel Tamr has freed up YPG resources to mount an operation to liberate the town of Tel Abyad/Gire Spi. I have talked about this town before because it is of massive strategic importance. Sitting almost mid-way between the Cizire Canton and the Kobane Canton it has long been used as a base from where ISIL have launched attacks against the western border of the Cizire Canton and the eastern border of the Kobane Canton. It also sits directly on the border with Turkey providing ISIL with a key supply route from Turkey to their de facto capital of Raqqa some 90km (53 miles) to the south. 

Over the course of the past week YPG units including a very small contingent of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have advanced east and west from the Kobane and Cizire Cantons. On Thursday (11/6/15) they had converged on the village of Qaysariyeh 3km (1.8 miles) to the south surrounding Tel Abyad. On Saturday (13/6/15) the YPG launched their assault proper on the town.

Late yesterday (15/6/15) evening the YPG had succeeded in liberating the actual border crossing with Turkey in the north of the town. Today the YPG have been engaged in a mopping up operation clearing the last remaining pockets of ISIL resistance in the town and due to the professionalism we've come to expect from the YPG they won't declare Tel Abyad liberated until that mopping up has been completed. However independent observers are reporting that the fighting is already over with not a shot being fired since dawn

The liberation of Tel Abyad is utterly devastating for ISIL because it closes their main supply route between Turkey and Raqqa. However it also establishes a roughly 33,000km^2 (20,000 miles^2) area of Kurdish control stretching from the Euphrates river all the way to Iraqi Kurdistan's border with Iran. This leaves Turkey able to concentrate it's resources on sealing off the remaining 275km (165 miles) of it's border to prevent foreign fighters crossing into Syria to join ISIL.

The area itself can now be used as the safe-haven to protect refugees fleeing ISIL that Turkey has been demanding for so long. If the US-led coalition is finally prepared to work with the YPG to defeat ISIL this area can also be used as a training and staging area from where coalition forces can push down into ISIL controlled territory. The victory in Tel Abyad which has come in the almost complete absence of coalition support has also significantly strengthened the YPG's claim to be the leading opposition group to ISIL in Syria.

Obviously with the Tel Abyad operation being such a huge defeat for ISIL many of their allies have been trying to have it halted. Being unable to join in with the fighting on the ground for the most part this has involved accusations that the YPG have been engaged in the ethnic cleansing of Arab and Turkmen ethnic groups in an effort turn the local population against the YPG and trigger international pressure on them to halt the liberation. These accusations appear to have been started by JAF - particularly the Jaish al-Islam (Brigade of Islam) and the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant whose name makes it quite clear that they share ISIL's main objective. Worryingly over the past week these accusations have also been repeated by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan although no evidence has been presented to support them.

In fact the first I heard that the assault of Tel Abyad itself was beginning was a statement by the YPG that they were beginning the operation and there was no need for the town's residents to flee. However if they wished to temporarily escape from the fighting the YPG made it clear they would be allowed to cross their lines and take up temporary shelter in either the Cizire or Kobane Cantons. However many of the residents did decide to flee into Turkey.

It will be interesting to see now if Turkey will allow those refugees to return to Tel Abyad because initially Turkey refused to allow refugees to return to Kobane City.

17:25 on 16/6/15 (UK date).

Monday, 15 June 2015

The Magna Carta Swindle.

As they seem to have been doing all year today the UK has been marking the 800th anniversary of the signing of Magna Carta (Great Charter in Latin). At ceremonies attended by both the Prime Minister and the Queen this anniversary is being used to present Britain as a shining beacon of justice and liberty in the world. This a massive deception but one that seems appropriate because the 800 year story of Magna Carta is really a story of political deception.

Pretty much from the moment he ascended to the English throne in 1199 King John was at war with King Phillip II of France. Coming some 200 years before the invention of Protestant Christianity this caused huge problems for the Catholic Pope because both King John and King Phillip II took their authority from the Catholic Church which obviously couldn't back both of them in a war. These wars were also hugely expensive and King John tried to pay for them by effectively stealing money, soldiers and animals from England's wealthy Barons.

This triggered a revolt by the Barons in the north and with the Pope looking to appoint a new King of England King John was at very serious risk of losing the throne. So in 1215 King John attempted to make peace with the northern Barons by signing Magna Carta. Contrary to popular belief this did not introduce notions like the rule of law, courts and due process - they already existed. What Magna Carta did was force the Monarch to abide by those existing rules. After signing Magna Carta King John got the Pope to visit him in Westminster Abbey where he re-affirmed his commitment to the Catholic Church. Following this show of obedience the Pope allow King John to repeal Magna Carta just 10 weeks after it had been signed as had been King John's intention all along.

This caused the northern rebellion to restart and on his way to fight the northern Barons King John stayed with some monks in King's Lynn in the east of England. There King John suddenly died of a mysterious illness. He was then succeeded by his son King Henry III. As Henry was only 9 years old at the time it was clear to his advisers that he would not be able to defeat the rebel barons so they moved to end the rebellion to introducing a new, much shorter version of Magna Carta. This version did away with many of the clauses on the rule of law but kept the ones establishing uniform weights and measures for things like a bale of wool and how much compensation would be paid if these things were seized by the Crown for use in war.

The rule of law clauses were never heard of again until around the 1770's when the American revolutionaries justified their revolution pointed to Magna Carta as an example of how England's colonial King George III could not be trusted to follow the rules even though George III wasn't bound by Magna Carta. The trick worked though and once America had won its war of independence for the UK Crown the new nations founders drew inspiration from Magna Carta for their Constitution and it's amendments protecting citizens from search, seizure and imprisonment with out due process under the law.

So the anniversary of Magna Carta is hugely important - for the US Justice system. However it's less important in the UK where only three of it's clauses are law and two of them protect the now Protestant Church and the City of London as institutions.

16:50 on 15/6/15 (UK date).

Astronauts and Their Hair.

In 2014 the film "Gravity" swept the board at the Oscars. The main thing about the film that impressed the judges was the technical advances the filmmakers developed to portray the zero gravity conditions. However they made one crucial mistake - Sandra Bullock's hair did not float in the absence of gravity. Since then the way that astronauts hair behaves has become something of a niche obsession.

For example in September 2014 Yelena Serova was preparing to become the fourth Russian woman in space. At a press conference she was asked what I thought was a rather reasonable human interest question about how she planned to care for her long hair during her time in space. This prompted a very angry response Serova who demanded to know why her short haired male colleagues weren't being asked the same question and triggered a wider discussion about sexism in Russian society. Then came the film "Interstellar" which was very similar to Gravity but featured Anne Hathaway - recovering from "Les Miserables" - with very short hair solving the problem.

On Friday (11/6/15) Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti returned to Earth after spending 199 days in orbit aboard the International Space Station (ISS) thus making her both the woman and the European who has spent the longest recorded time in space. Beyond that achievement Cristoforetti is fluent in five languages and has two degrees in both mechanical engineering and aeronautical science. However the first thing that anyone - myself included - noticed about Cristoforetti was her hair. She sports the sort of short, choppy cut that on Earth can look quite flat and lacking in body. However in zero gravity it just seemed to work perfectly. As a result most of Cristoforetti's time on the ISS was spent fielding questions from the public about her hair and hosting web tutorials on hair care in outerspace alongside other traditionally feminine tasks such as cooking. Cristoforetti was also the first person to make an espresso coffee in space.

Somehow you can't help but wonder if this was all done on purpose. 

16:10 on 15/6/15 (UK date).

Sunday, 14 June 2015

Lets Catch Me Some Fugitives.

Between Monday June 1st (1/6/15) and Thursday June 11th (11/6/15) the 42nd meeting of the Subsidiary Body to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (SB42) took place in Bonn, Germany. Unfortunately I was absolutely no help whatsoever. Between the UK General Election, the Eurovision Song Contest, the UK Queen's Speech and the US attempt at a FIFA coup I ended up getting so tired that I made myself ill. Seriously on Wednesday (10/6/15) and Thursday of last week I was struggling to follow the plot of repeats of "The Simpsons" let alone the news.

However the meeting started in dramatic fashion with the sinking of the Eastern Star cruise ship on the Yangtze River in China with the loss of 440 lives. This touched on several key areas - most notably the Yangtze River itself.

Twice the length of the Mississippi River in the US and almost as long as the Nile River in Africa and the Amazon River in South America the Yangtze is big river in every sense of the term stretching all the way from Tibet in the west of China to the East China Sea in the east of the country. Across this great expanse the Yangtze both impacts on and impacted by the environment that surrounds it. So in agricultural areas it is polluted by the surface run-off of fertilisers and in industrial areas it suffers from the discharge of things like heavy metals. It also of course occasionally floods its surrounding areas and has a constant effect eroding the land around it.

The environmental issue that is probably the most relevant to SB42 though is the Three Gorges Dam which upon completion in 2012 became the World's largest generator of hydro-electric power. However since construction began in 1994 the Three Gorges Dam project has been plagued by accusations of environmental damage including the blocking of silt flow through the river increasing the flood threat down stream and causing the extinction of fish species including the Chinese River Dolphin which is sometimes referred to as the "Baiji" despite it having no connection to the Iraqi town of the same name. Although it started a bit before my time looking back I sort of get the impression that the US has used the Three Gorges Dam as an excuse to rally environmental protest groups such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth to put pressure on China over other issues.

The Three Gorges Dam is particularly relevent to efforts to combat climate change though because the main source of electricity in the World isn't from oil, natural gas or even coal. Instead it is from hydro-electric power which accounts for around 40% of all electricity. Obviously in our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions we would like to increase that figure but to do so would involve building more dams like the Three Gorges project and things like Tidal power projects such as the one the UK recently announced for Swansea Bay. Although these projects will cut greenhouse gas emissions they will obviously have impacts of their own on the environment and those impacts do need to be carefully considered. After all there's not much point in China reducing sea levels if Shanghai gets flooded by the Yangtze anyway.

The second major area the incident touched on was the US' "Pivot Towards the Pacific" policy or "Mission to Contain China" as it's more widely referred to. This really has two prongs; the first being the US removing trade sanctions from unpleasant South-East Asian regimes such as Burma/Myanmar. In this first instance this builds an allegiance between the US and those nations but also drives down wages and working conditions across the entire region - including in China. On Friday (12/6/15) US Congress gave permission for this process to be "Fast Tracked."

The second prong has been for the US to build up the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK/North Korea) into a reckless and rouge state that its neighbours will need the US to protect them from. For example during last year's COP20 Summit the US carried out a cyber-attack on Sony Pictures which they then blamed on the DPRK and by association China. Back April 2014 the Sewol Ferry sank in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South Korea) with the loss of 476 lives. This was largely seen as a protest against the US' policy of encouraging the DPRK to behave increasingly recklessly because if the worst does happen the RoK will be first in the firing line and a lot more then 476 people will be killed.

The third main area the story touched on was the US TV Show "Oz" which seems to have become the script for most things going on in US politics at the moment. Around about the third season Oz starts getting quite silly. For example in one major storyline they start medical trials for this magical ageing drug that can cause the prisoners to age 20 years in a matter of weeks. This is a clumsy device to promote discussion about whether the prison system is merely a way to warehouse offenders until they are too old to re-offend or whether it should make some effort to rehabilitate them.

In another major storyline a Chinese ship full of irregular migrants sinks and all the men aboard are sent to the Oz prison while their asylum claims are processed. At no point does the show attempt to explain why a ship sailing from China would end up sinking on the US' east coast or why the people aboard would be sent to a state rather then a federal prison. Then suddenly a news report in the back ground announces that the US government has agreed with the Chinese government that the men aren't being persecuted and the characters all disappear with no further explanation. This is a bit of a confusing little head-scratcher all around.

As such I think the Yangtze incident was supposed to give the impression that China was panicking because it was struggling to follow what the US was doing - particularly in regard to the Pivot Towards the Pacific. This would then help identify those nations that were also confused by what the US was up to and therefore at risk of falling into the US' sphere of influence. This would be a problem for UNFCCC negotiations because China are very much one of the leaders while the US is very much a hindrance.

For example US President Obama likes to boast about how he recently forced China into a historic deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions. People who are familiar with the issue though are well aware that it was more a case of China finally getting the US to agree to do something. For example in the four months since that deal China has actually cuts it's emissions by 5% while Obama has talked, a lot. Obviously peer review and verification are hot topics but as a further example of it's leadership China has reduced the first round of the ex-ante process in an effort to make sure the negotiations meet their looming deadline.

Unfortunately the spanner in the works was the UK who totally panicked and tried to muscle in on the Chinese play first with the June 2nd (2/6/15) Alton Towers Roller-Coaster incident. The actual roller-coaster involved is the "Smiler" which is inspired by a character in the "Saw" horror movies who likes to trap people into vicious and sadistic mind games - a sensation that won't be unfamiliar to many international diplomats. The wait to get the ride re-opened could equally be interpreted as an attempt to match the Chinese efforts to rescue and recover the Eastern Star or a way to raise speculation over whether I'd ever get around to doing any actual work relating to SB42.

The UK also teamed up with their Monarchistic ally the Netherlands to put on the discovery of 68 migrants on a ferry at the Harwich port in Essex UK on June 5th (5/6/15). With 22 of the migrants coming from China this was a very clear reference to the Oz element of the Yangtze incident. 

With Australia and the US also trying to get in on the story I obviously have more to add but I'll do that after the Slovenia V England game or maybe even tomorrow. After all we don't those New York State prison fugitives being caught too soon.

15:30 on 14/6/15 (UK date).

Edited at around 18:50 on 14/6/15 (UK date) go; "82 hits, WTF?!" and add;

Obviously during the rescue and recovery operation for the Eastern Star cruise ship the relatives of the 440 dead crammed the banks of the river and nearby hotels because often although your head may tell you that your loved one is dead your heart needs to see the body before it will accept. Although I think this was just a side-effect of the situation rather then part of the plan these scenes did resemble the relatives of the 152 Chinese citizens aboard Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 who are still crammed into hotels waiting for news.

This clearly struck a nerve with Australia - the other "Oz." Since March 17th 2014 (17/3/14) Australia has been heading the search for MH370 without much success. In July of 2014 Australia lost 27 of it's citizens when Malaysia Airlines MH17 crashed in similarly mysterious circumstances over Ukraine. The Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott immediately blamed Russia for the incident and threatened to "Shirt-front" Russian President Vladimir Putin in retaliation. Although there are clear cultural differences by comparison China's ongoing response to the fruitless search for MH370 has been a picture of quiet restraint.

On June 2nd (2/6/15) professional Australian basketball player Luke Martin is alleged to have attacked Sydney's Lindt Cafe with rocks. The so-called "Sydney Siege" was of course Australia's unconventional response to the COP20 Summit. As such this seems to be a slightly paranoid attempt by Australia to question whether China was criticising them - "throwing rocks" - over their stance on climate change or over their failure to find MH370.

Within the TV Show "Oz" there is a professional basketball character "Jackson Vahue" who has been jailed for rape and sexual assault. Although he was only 11 years old when the character was cast Drake - the Canadian rapper and one-time boyfriend of Rihanna - can, from certain angles resemble Vahue particularly when both have the slightly longer hair. I was not immediately aware of this connection at the time because although Oz is being re-broadcast five nights a week here in the UK rather then watching it nightly I tend to DVR the week's episodes and watch them in one go over the weekend. Due to the Eurovision Song Contest my viewing schedule had got significantly behind the broadcast schedule.

On June 5th (5/6/15) two prisoners tunnelled out of the Clinton Prison in New York State, US leaving behind a particularly racist drawing of a Chinaman alongside the slogan "Have A Nice Day." This was a very clear "F*ck You" to both the prison and to China. Apart from the reference to 2016 Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton the ensuing manhunt caused authorities to shut the Route 374 highway. In the graphic that CNN International broadcast globally this was made to resemble the Yangtze River only on a much smaller scale.

Although this has been dubbed "The Shawshank Jailbreak" the whole thing is a storyline directly out of Oz. At the end of - I think - the third and the start of the fourth seasons two of the prisoners "Miguel Alvarez" and "Agamemnon Busmalis" escape through a tunnel that Busmalis has dug. While Busmalis is very quickly re-captured Alvarez very nearly escapes all the way to Mexico. One of the prisoners in the Clinton escape has a "Mexico Forever" tattoo. Annoyingly I haven't actually seen either of these episodes because my DVR opted not to record them. This provokes lots of discussion about who has been hacking my DVR.

Joyce Mitchell the prisoner worker who is alleged to have aided the Clinton escape could actually be interpreted as one of two characters in Oz. First there is "Claire Howell" a guard who doesn't so much have affairs with various male prisoners as sexually abuses and rapes them. Due to her physical appearance Mitchell could also be mistaken for "Suzanne Fitzgerald" - the mother of "Ryan O'Reily" and a 1960's radical who spends years on the run and comes to the prison to perform community service by teachning music as punishment for killing a police officer in a bombing.

As such the search narrative of the manhunt was intended to reassure US regional allies by giving the impression that the US was zeroing in on China's play while at the same time trying to make life difficult for China with all the references to my watching of cult 1990's TV shows.

I actually think the continuing search makes the US look quite weak but I'm pretty they'll be able to con certain people into thinking that it's all an elaborate bluff.

19:40 on 14/6/15 (UK date).