A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3_20.html
In that post I looked how there has been a noticeable shift towards guerrilla warfare tactics within the Shangri-La area. Many of these attacks have particularly clustered around the town of Manbij.
This cluster of attacks highlight that ISIL are not the
only threat facing Shangri-La. It's arguable that ISIL are no longer
even the main threat.
Turkey presents at least as much of a threat to Shangri-La and the people within it.
In August 2016 Turkish forces illegally invaded the Garvaghy Road
area of Syria. Garvaghy Road sits directly adjacent to the west of Shangri-La.
Technically the town of Jarablus within Garvaghy Road sits directly to
the north of Manbij.
The purpose of Turkey's invasion
of Garvaghy Road was to prevent the SDF advancing from Manbij to Afrin
Canton. This would cut Turkey's supply lines with ISIL positions in the
Central Syria area.
Then US President Barack Obama gave
Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan
permission to do this. In return for Erdogan giving the US Air Force
(USAF) permission to use USAF base Incirlik in Turkey. Provided it was
not used to attack ISIL.
Obama was apparently unaware
that the USAF does not need Turkey's permission to use a USAF base. So
in Britain this incident is known as; "The Shoreham Air Disaster."
The last town in Garvaghy Road Turkish forces captured was al-Bab. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-west of Manbij.
When
the battle for al-Bab began in November 2016 Erdogan made it quite
clear that once the town had been captured Turkish forces would move
onto to attack Manbij. Including the SDF and CJTFOIR forces stationed
there.
It fell to Russia to protect the SDF and CJTFOIR
forces at Manbij from Turkish attack. In late December 2016 Russia
moved its military police and some Syrian troops into the town of
al-Arimah.
Arimah sits around 20km (12 miles) north-east
of al-Bab and around 20km (12 miles) south-west of Manbij. This meant
that if Erdogan wished to attack Manbij his forces would have to go
through the Russian forces at Arimah. Something that would end extremely
badly for Erdogan and Turkey.
In response the US
President Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats from the US. On December
29th 2016 (29/12/16). In an apparent attempt to punish Russia for
protecting US troops stationed at Manbij.
It's enough
to give you the impression that the deep hatred Obama's Democrat Party
harbour towards Russia stems from their deep love affair with
ISIL.
In the Spring of 2017 Syrian forces set out from Aleppo City pressing east. To clear ISIL from the Central Syria area. In July 2017 they arrived at the town of Dalhah on the southern banks of the Euphrates. Completing the task.
This
meant that Erdogan had his Garvaghy Road supply line to ISIL open. He
just didn't have any ISIL fighters in the Central Syria area to supply.
Throughout
much of 2017 and early 2018 the Syrians completely cleared this Central
Syria area of ISIL and associated armed groups.
This
forced Erdogan to abandon his dream of overthrowing the Syrian
government. In order to annex all of Syria as a province of his New
Ottoman Empire.
In response Erdogan launched into a mad rush to seize and annex as much Syrian territory as he could.
In October 2017 Erdogan dispatched Turkish troops into the Sudetenland
area of Syria. In order to establish a network of Control Point
military bases. Protecting the Al Qaeda-led armed groups there and
prevent the Syrians liberating the area. Like they had liberated the
Central Syria area.
In January 2018 Erdogan dispatched Turkish troops to attack the SDF in Afrin Canton. Invading and illegally occupying that area of Syria. An occupation which continues to this day.
This
was nothing more than a land grab on Erdogan's part. He was
particularly interested in Afrin's famous Olive industry. Which is
actually worth about US$80m per year.
In launching the
invasion of Afrin Canton Erdogan made it quite clear that he next intended to
invade and occupy Shangri-La. Annexing that territory as part of his New
Ottoman Empire. Including its Oil & Gas Fields.
Throughout
2018 Erdogan has clung on to and often vocalised this belief that he is
entitled to invade and annex Shangri-La. Primarily because no-one's yet
explained to him that he needs to get the hell out of the Garvaghy Road,
Afrin Canton and Sudetenland areas.
Erdogan's desire to invade and occupy Shangri-La has occasionally boiled over into direct military action.
On February 20th 2017 (20/2/17) the Turkish Air Force conducted an airstrike against Russian positions nears Homs City. Killing four Russian troops.
On March 1st 2017 (1/3/17) Turkish jets under Erdogan's command conducted airstrikes against SDF
positions at Tal Rifat. This sits around 13km (8 miles) south of Azaz
and marks the boundary between Garvaghy Road and the Afrin Canton.
That afternoon Turkish jets also attacked SDF positions at Manbij. Those airstrikes were accompanied by artillery strikes from Turkish military (TSK) positions at al-Bab.
Again it fell to Russia to protect SDF and CJTFOIR forces stationed at Manbij. Russia deployed its aircraft to chase off the Turkish fighters and enforce something of a No Fly Zone around Manbij.
The US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee response was to launch an investigation into claims of Russian interference in the 2016 election. With a view to imposing more sanctions against Russia.
On April 25th 2017 (25/4/17) the Turkish military went on a particularly violent rampage.
The Turkish Air Force conducted airstrikes close to the town of Sinjar/Shingal in northern Iraq. These
strikes killed five members of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and five
members of the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Resistance Units (YBS) who, at the time, were one of the
militia's that make up the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).
Erdogan's strikes against Iraq were coordinated with no fewer than 20 airstrikes against the General Command centre of
the SDF in al-Malikiyah/Derik in
north-east Syria. Apart from damaging the SDF's communications system
these strikes killed 28 members of the SDF.
The Turkish airstrikes continued at a lower intensity on April 26th 2017 (26/4/17) and April 27th 2017 (27/4/17). Both in Iraq and Syria.
On April 28th 2017 (28/4/17) the regular Turkish Military (TSK) launched a limited ground assault against Shangri-La. Against the border town of Darbasiya. This sits around 270km (160 miles) east of the famous town of
Kobane and around 190km (115 miles) west of Syria's border with Iraq.
The attack came despite US Marines being stationed within Shangri-La. Conducting highly visible show of force patrols along the Syria/Turkey
border within the Darbasiya area specifically to deter Erdogan's
aggression.
Those US Marines were not involved in repelling the attack. During which the SDF destroyed five Turkish tanks, a radar vehicle and two fighting positions.
Since then the Turkish military have sporadically shelled Shangri-La. Both from within Turkey itself and from within the Garvaghy Road area.
Most notably the TSK shelled wide areas of Shangri-La over the weekend of October 27th 2018 (27/10/18). Attacks which accompanied ISIL launching its counter-offensive which expelled the SDF from the Hajin Pocket.
These were followed by ground clashes between the SDF and Turkey's irregular ground force the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
At Manbij of November 17th 2018 (17/11/18). On December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) at Turkhar, a village just outside Manbij.
On February 4th 2019 (4/2/19) Erdogan was forced to admit that the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) has maintained contact with the Syrian Military Intelligence Directorate (Mukhabarat). Despite Turkey have officially broken off all diplomatic ties with Syria back in September 2011.
In making this admission Erdogan also let slip that the MIT operate cells in both Qamishli/Qamishlo and Hasakah City. Two cities where ISIL seems to have suddenly developed the ability to conduct guerrilla attacks.
It's long been known that the Turkish MIT have been conducting guerrilla warfare against the SDF in Shangri-La. Using the front organisation The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HaQ).
After emerging in August 2017 Harakat al-Qiyam quickly became mocked for the claims of responsibility they published following attacks. It was obvious to all that whomever was writing those Arabic statements clearly didn't speak Arabic.
That is something which is quite embarrassing for a group claiming to be made up of Syrian Arabs. It's even a bit embarrassing for a Turk who claims to be a Muslim.
Eventually the sound of laughter become too much to bear. So Harakat al-Qiyam simply stopped issuing claims of responsibility for their attacks.
On November 4th 2018 (4/11/18) HaQ did break their long silence. To announce that they now wish to be known as the Counter-Terrorism & Resistance Organisation.
On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) a new MIT front group announced themselves to the World under the name "Tajammu Shuhada" which roughly translates as; "Dignity of the Martyrs." Like Harakat al-Qiyam they claim to be Syrian Arabs and veterans of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Tajammu Shuhada credibly claimed to have carried out an attack against the SDF at Tayyib al-Fal. A village that sits on the Khobar River. Around 20km (12 miles) from where the Khobar meets the Euphrates. The group claim they were forced into carrying out the attack by Turkey apparently abandoning its plans to invade Shangri-La.
This attack which killed for members of the SDF was also claimed by ISIL. Although with far less credibility.
Turkey's MIT have also been conducting extensive propaganda operations within Shangri-La.
As the SDF have expanded Shangri-La along the Euphrates River to the Syria/Iraq border it has created some tension with the Arab Tribes indigenous to the area. Primarily, like everyone, the tribes don't like a bunch of strangers coming in and telling them what to do.
On November 2nd 2018 (2/11/18) the leader of the Afadlah Tribe, Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi was assassinated in Raqqa City. Likely by members of the Afadlah Tribe who had broken away from their leader to join ISIL.
On November 3rd 2018 (3/11/18) Turkey's MIT released a joint statement online purportedly signed by the leaders of Waldat, Sabkhat, Hulaysay, Fidan and Emirat Tribes. This statement accused the SDF of assassinating Sheikh al-Huwaidi and called on all Arabs to break away from the SDF. So Shangri-La ca; "Be returned to its true people."
That joint statement was a complete forgery. On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the leaders of the tribes mentioned put out genuine statements declaring it to be a forgery. The leaders of the Fidan and Emirat Tribes certainly didn't hold back in expressing their dislike of Erdogan.
On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) Harakat al-Qiyam conducted an IED attack in Shadaddi which killed four members of the SDF's civilian police (Asayish). They claimed this attack as retaliation for the SDF's murder of Sheikh al-Huwaidi and called on the Arab tribes to join them in their battle against the SDF.
One specific area of tension between the SDF and the local tribes recently has been over the issue of conscription. Particularly the US' mad rush to liberate the Hajin Pocket at any cost has taken a heavy toll on the Arab elements of the SDF. With many being killed.
This has forced the SDF to increase conscription amongst the Arab tribes. Due to the mad rush these conscripts have been next to no training before being sent into battle. As a result they have been killed in large numbers.
So to the Arab tribes the SDF saying they're coming to conscript their men is the same as the SDF saying they're coming to kill their men.
I have to point out though that following the October 27th 2018 (27/10/18) defeat the SDF and particularly the YPG element wanted to suspend the operation. It was the Shaitat Tribe who threatened to break away and form their own local defence force to continue the battle.
On this issue of conscription tensions boiled over on January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19). Between the SDF and the Albu Khamis Tribe in the town of Mansoura. Which sits on the south bank of the Euphrates around 15km (10 miles) east of the Tabqa Dam.
Amid several days of rioting and the imposition of a curfew there were obviously a few arrests. On February 1st 2019 (1/2/19) Turkey's MIT put around the story that a member of the Albu Khamis Tribe, Habes al-Balikh, had been tortured to death whilst in SDF custody.
This came as quite a surprise to Mr al-Balikh who had just arrived home. Having been released, untortured by the SDF the previous day.
As a result of this high level of Turkish activity within Shangri-La it is likely that many of the attacks attributed to ISIL were actually carried out by Turkey. By my estimates 35 of the 76 attacks I've examined were carried out by Turkey.
The most high profile attack to strike Manbij occurred on January 16th 2019 (16/1/19).
Here an Inghimasi-style suicide bomber struck the Qasr al-Umara cafe in Manbij. Killing 4 Americans and wounding three others. Along with two members of the SDF and five civilians. With a further 19 civilians wounded.
This attack was carried out by ISIL. It was one of the few occasions where their claim of responsibility was genuine.
However it was an incredibly sophisticated attack. Far more sophisticated than anything we've seen so far.
On January 5th 2019 (5/1/19) two British SOF's were wounded at Shafah, in the Hajin Pocket. What happened is that there was a battle going on. As part of that battle ISIL fired a rocket at an SDF vehicle, hitting it. Completely unbeknownst to ISIL that vehicle just happened to contain two British SOF's.
On January 7th 2019 (7/1/19) ISIL conducted an Inghimasi attack against the Personal Affairs Office in Raqqa City. Far from being a secret location the Personal Affairs Office is a public building. So not only are the public aware of it they're actively told to go there. Meaning that it is always crowded.
In Manbij on January 16th 2019 (16/1/19) ISIL didn't detonate an IED next to an SDF convoy. Which happened to contain US troops. Nor did they target a cafe known to be popular with off-duty US troops.
Instead the cafe was targeted during what the US is describing as a; "Local Engagement Operation." One of the Americans killed was a US Navy cryptologist. Another of the Americans killed has been described as a; "civilian contractor." Which is often a euphemistic way of saying; "CIA." A way which ensures they're not bound by the laws which bind the CIA.
So at the time of the attack the US was conducting some sort of secretive intelligence operation. I would not like to speculate on the exact type of the intelligence operation. However its most likely to involve meeting with an informant.
This poses the question of how ISIL were able to find out about what is normally a need-to-know meeting far enough in advance to plot an attack?
One possibility is that ISIL tricked the Americans and the bomber was the person they were meeting with. Another distinct possibility is that ISIL were informed about the meeting by a third party. One with more sophisticated intelligence gathering capabilities and better access to CJTFOIR.
It is the threat Turkey poses to Shangri-La which has recently sent Britain into a mad panic of the ISIL prisoners the SDF currently hold. Such as Shamima Begum.
Across Europe no-one seems to be questioning Erdogan's imagined right to invade Shangri-La. Annexing it as part of his New Ottoman Empire. The US appears to have appointed a Special Counsel to ensure that it happens.
As a result Britain is now rushing to get all these prisoners processed. Before Turkish troops invade and set them free.
21:00 on 21/2/19 (UK date).
Thursday, 21 February 2019
Wednesday, 20 February 2019
Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 3, Day 4.
A continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-3.html
In that post I looked at the operation by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) to liberate the Hajin Pocket. From the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
This has seen ISIL reduced to a tiny, 250 yards by 250 yards scrap of wasteland. Designated; "Camp Futility."
So while there is technically an ISIL presence within the Hajin Pocket the battle is over. There are even reports today of ISIL surrendering within Camp Futility.
Sadly it looks as though the end of the battle does not mean that Shangri-La will be left in peace.
Throughout the battle of the Hajin Pocket ISIL showed themselves capable of continuing to conduct conventional military operations.
The battle was not a case of ISIL sitting in defensive positions and attempting to stop the SDF from reaching them. ISIL also mounted counter-offensives in efforts to drive the SDF back and defeat them.
The most notable of which came in late October 2018 when ISIL were able to force the SDF from the Hajin Pocket. Forcing the SDF's operation to be temporarily halted.
On December 5th 2018 (5/12/18) ISIL were able to launch another large counter-offensive across the Hajin Pocket. This though was much less successful for them. With at least 228 ISIL fighters being killed. Including when a 40 vehicle ISIL convoy was destroyed in a single CJTFOIR airstrike.
ISIL also proved themselves capable of launching proactive operations. Outside of the Hajin Pocket.
On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) ISIL were able to attack the SDF at the Omar Oil & Gas Field. In the vicinity of Al-Busayrah. Around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Hajin. Where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River.
As previously mentioned on November 24th 2018 (24/11/18) ISIL were able to launch large attacks on the towns of Bahrah and Gharanji. Bahrah is the next town north-west of Hajin, 5km (3 miles) away. Gharanji is directly adjacent to Bahrah at it's north-west tip.
While the attack on Gharanji was a complete failure the attack in Bahrah was highly effective. The SDF were forced out of the town. It took two full days of fighting before it was recovered. With the loss of 92 SDF fighters.
On December 2nd 2018 (2/12/18) ISIL were able to ambush an SDF supply convoy. Close to the town of Diban. Around 50km (30 miles) north-west of Hajin.
January 7th 2019 (7/1/19) saw ISIL apparently use tunnels to launch a so-called; "Inghimasi" attack against Raqqa City. Some 300km (180 miles) north-west of Hajin.
From the Arabic; "to plunge" an Inghimasi attack involves a fighter or fighters wearing a Suicide Vest (S-Vest) going deep within enemy territory and blowing themselves up. In the hope of doing as much damage to the enemy as possible.
Fortunately this attacker was detected and confronted by the SDF.
This forced him to detonate his device on Nur Street before being able to reach his intended target of Personal Affairs Office where civilians were queueing. However one member of the SDF and four civilians were killed.
On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) ISIL were able to launch a Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (SVBIED) attack against an SDF supply convoy close to Shadaddi. This sits on the Khobar River some 200km (120 miles) north-west of Hajin.
February 3rd 2019 (3/2/19) saw ISIL conduct an attack against a water treatment plant in Tayyanah. This sits on the Euphrates, around 45km (25 miles) north-west of Hajin.
These most significant attacks have been accompanied by numerous hit and run style attacks. Predominately against SDF positions in the oil and gas fields which sit to the north of the Hajin Pocket.
As the battle of the Hajin Pocket has progressed though ISIL have noticeably shifted towards using guerrilla tactics against the SDF. Ironically in an attempt to ape the tactics being used by the SDF in Afrin Canton. Against the forces of ISIL's main backer Turkey which continue to illegally occupy the area.
ISIL routinely exaggerate and simply lie about the attacks they've carried out.
Adding up every attack claimed by their Amaq propaganda mouthpiece ISIL have succeeded in killing every single member of the SDF. Along with every one of the CJTFOIR troops deployed to Syria. Several times over.
However in the period between November 12th 2018 (12/11/18) and February 7th 2019 (7/2/19) there have been 76 confirmed attacks. With a notable increase in frequency starting early to mid December 2018.
These attacks have all been in the nature of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) bombings, sniper attacks, targeted assassinations and ambushes against vehicle patrols.
Rather amusingly on December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) ISIL made an uncorroborated claim of a stabbing attack against the SDF in Shadaddi. You wouldn't think they would want to boast about being reduced to using the tactics their lone-wolf attackers use in western nations. In what used to be the group's heartland.
You will be glad to know that I am not going to list each of these 76 attacks.
The majority of them though have taken place in and around the areas directly on the banks of the Euphrates. Particularly around Raqqa City. They have also clustered around the towns of Darnaj and Diban. This sit around 40km (20 miles) and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Hajin respectively and are of limited strategic importance.
However the attacks have also managed to spread far and wide across Shangri-La. Including into areas where ISIL have never held territory.
On November 20th 2018 (20/11/18) one member of the SDF was killed in an IED attack in the town of Tal Byad/Gire Spi. This sits right on the border between Shangri-La and Turkey. Around 120km (70 miles) north of Raqqa City. It's been under complete SDF control since June 2015.
On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) three members of the SDF and four members of the SDF civilian police (Asayish) were killed in bombings in Shadaddi and Dashisha. Dashisha sits around 30km (20 miles) south of Shadaddi. Both were liberated by the SDF back in February 2016.
November 28th 2018 (28/11/18) saw two members of the SDF killed in a roadside IED attack on their vehicle in Hasakah City. Although it was totally liberated by the SDF August 2015 Hasakah City has never been fully out of the SDF's control.
The SDF's security headquarters in Ras al-Ayn/Serekanyie was attacked with a large IED on December 1st 2018 (1/12/18). Resulting in 13 members of the SDF being killed.
Serekanyie is located right on Shangri-La's border with Turkey, around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Raqqa City. It has never been under the control of anyone except the SDF throughout the entire conflict.
On December 20th 2018 (20/12/18) a roadside IED attack targeted an SDF patrol in Qamishli/Qamishlo. Fortunately it did not succeed in causing any casualties.
Considered the capital of Syria's Kurdish region Qamishlo has never been under the control of anyone except the SDF. Located as it is right on Shangri-La's border with Turkey. Some 400km (240 miles) north of Hajin.
On December 26th 2018 (26/12/18) an SDF commander, Jawan Khalil was killed in a targeted assassination. Within Hasakah City.
There was another targeted assassination on December 30th 2018 (30/12/18). This time Marwan Fateeh, co-chair of the civilian Deir-ez-Zour legislative council was killed. On the road linking Hasakah City and Deir-ez-Zour City.
On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) there was a sniper attack in Tal Abyad/Gire Spi. In which one member of the SDF was killed.
The attacks have also clustered around the town of Manbij. This marks the westerly border of Shangri-La. Sitting on the western bank of the Euphrates Manbij is the town which controls the Tishreen Dam across the river. It sits around 65km (40 miles) south-west of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab.
Of the 76 attacks targeting Shangri-La during this period 13 of them struck Manbij alone.
These include attacks such as the targeted assassination of Hamza Zaza, of the SDF's Manbij Military Council (M-MC). With an IED attached to his vehicle on November 24th 2018 (24/11/18). A drive-by shooting of the SDF's Manbij HQ on December 6th 2018 (6/12/18). Which resulted in no casualties.
The majority though have been IED attacks. Targeting both SDF patrols and civilians.
21:00 on 20/2/19 (UK date).
In that post I looked at the operation by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) to liberate the Hajin Pocket. From the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
This has seen ISIL reduced to a tiny, 250 yards by 250 yards scrap of wasteland. Designated; "Camp Futility."
So while there is technically an ISIL presence within the Hajin Pocket the battle is over. There are even reports today of ISIL surrendering within Camp Futility.
Sadly it looks as though the end of the battle does not mean that Shangri-La will be left in peace.
Throughout the battle of the Hajin Pocket ISIL showed themselves capable of continuing to conduct conventional military operations.
The battle was not a case of ISIL sitting in defensive positions and attempting to stop the SDF from reaching them. ISIL also mounted counter-offensives in efforts to drive the SDF back and defeat them.
The most notable of which came in late October 2018 when ISIL were able to force the SDF from the Hajin Pocket. Forcing the SDF's operation to be temporarily halted.
On December 5th 2018 (5/12/18) ISIL were able to launch another large counter-offensive across the Hajin Pocket. This though was much less successful for them. With at least 228 ISIL fighters being killed. Including when a 40 vehicle ISIL convoy was destroyed in a single CJTFOIR airstrike.
ISIL also proved themselves capable of launching proactive operations. Outside of the Hajin Pocket.
On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) ISIL were able to attack the SDF at the Omar Oil & Gas Field. In the vicinity of Al-Busayrah. Around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Hajin. Where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River.
As previously mentioned on November 24th 2018 (24/11/18) ISIL were able to launch large attacks on the towns of Bahrah and Gharanji. Bahrah is the next town north-west of Hajin, 5km (3 miles) away. Gharanji is directly adjacent to Bahrah at it's north-west tip.
While the attack on Gharanji was a complete failure the attack in Bahrah was highly effective. The SDF were forced out of the town. It took two full days of fighting before it was recovered. With the loss of 92 SDF fighters.
On December 2nd 2018 (2/12/18) ISIL were able to ambush an SDF supply convoy. Close to the town of Diban. Around 50km (30 miles) north-west of Hajin.
January 7th 2019 (7/1/19) saw ISIL apparently use tunnels to launch a so-called; "Inghimasi" attack against Raqqa City. Some 300km (180 miles) north-west of Hajin.
From the Arabic; "to plunge" an Inghimasi attack involves a fighter or fighters wearing a Suicide Vest (S-Vest) going deep within enemy territory and blowing themselves up. In the hope of doing as much damage to the enemy as possible.
Fortunately this attacker was detected and confronted by the SDF.
This forced him to detonate his device on Nur Street before being able to reach his intended target of Personal Affairs Office where civilians were queueing. However one member of the SDF and four civilians were killed.
On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) ISIL were able to launch a Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (SVBIED) attack against an SDF supply convoy close to Shadaddi. This sits on the Khobar River some 200km (120 miles) north-west of Hajin.
February 3rd 2019 (3/2/19) saw ISIL conduct an attack against a water treatment plant in Tayyanah. This sits on the Euphrates, around 45km (25 miles) north-west of Hajin.
These most significant attacks have been accompanied by numerous hit and run style attacks. Predominately against SDF positions in the oil and gas fields which sit to the north of the Hajin Pocket.
As the battle of the Hajin Pocket has progressed though ISIL have noticeably shifted towards using guerrilla tactics against the SDF. Ironically in an attempt to ape the tactics being used by the SDF in Afrin Canton. Against the forces of ISIL's main backer Turkey which continue to illegally occupy the area.
ISIL routinely exaggerate and simply lie about the attacks they've carried out.
Adding up every attack claimed by their Amaq propaganda mouthpiece ISIL have succeeded in killing every single member of the SDF. Along with every one of the CJTFOIR troops deployed to Syria. Several times over.
However in the period between November 12th 2018 (12/11/18) and February 7th 2019 (7/2/19) there have been 76 confirmed attacks. With a notable increase in frequency starting early to mid December 2018.
These attacks have all been in the nature of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) bombings, sniper attacks, targeted assassinations and ambushes against vehicle patrols.
Rather amusingly on December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) ISIL made an uncorroborated claim of a stabbing attack against the SDF in Shadaddi. You wouldn't think they would want to boast about being reduced to using the tactics their lone-wolf attackers use in western nations. In what used to be the group's heartland.
You will be glad to know that I am not going to list each of these 76 attacks.
The majority of them though have taken place in and around the areas directly on the banks of the Euphrates. Particularly around Raqqa City. They have also clustered around the towns of Darnaj and Diban. This sit around 40km (20 miles) and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Hajin respectively and are of limited strategic importance.
However the attacks have also managed to spread far and wide across Shangri-La. Including into areas where ISIL have never held territory.
On November 20th 2018 (20/11/18) one member of the SDF was killed in an IED attack in the town of Tal Byad/Gire Spi. This sits right on the border between Shangri-La and Turkey. Around 120km (70 miles) north of Raqqa City. It's been under complete SDF control since June 2015.
On November 21st 2018 (21/11/18) three members of the SDF and four members of the SDF civilian police (Asayish) were killed in bombings in Shadaddi and Dashisha. Dashisha sits around 30km (20 miles) south of Shadaddi. Both were liberated by the SDF back in February 2016.
November 28th 2018 (28/11/18) saw two members of the SDF killed in a roadside IED attack on their vehicle in Hasakah City. Although it was totally liberated by the SDF August 2015 Hasakah City has never been fully out of the SDF's control.
The SDF's security headquarters in Ras al-Ayn/Serekanyie was attacked with a large IED on December 1st 2018 (1/12/18). Resulting in 13 members of the SDF being killed.
Serekanyie is located right on Shangri-La's border with Turkey, around 180km (110 miles) north-east of Raqqa City. It has never been under the control of anyone except the SDF throughout the entire conflict.
On December 20th 2018 (20/12/18) a roadside IED attack targeted an SDF patrol in Qamishli/Qamishlo. Fortunately it did not succeed in causing any casualties.
Considered the capital of Syria's Kurdish region Qamishlo has never been under the control of anyone except the SDF. Located as it is right on Shangri-La's border with Turkey. Some 400km (240 miles) north of Hajin.
On December 26th 2018 (26/12/18) an SDF commander, Jawan Khalil was killed in a targeted assassination. Within Hasakah City.
There was another targeted assassination on December 30th 2018 (30/12/18). This time Marwan Fateeh, co-chair of the civilian Deir-ez-Zour legislative council was killed. On the road linking Hasakah City and Deir-ez-Zour City.
On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) there was a sniper attack in Tal Abyad/Gire Spi. In which one member of the SDF was killed.
The attacks have also clustered around the town of Manbij. This marks the westerly border of Shangri-La. Sitting on the western bank of the Euphrates Manbij is the town which controls the Tishreen Dam across the river. It sits around 65km (40 miles) south-west of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab.
Of the 76 attacks targeting Shangri-La during this period 13 of them struck Manbij alone.
These include attacks such as the targeted assassination of Hamza Zaza, of the SDF's Manbij Military Council (M-MC). With an IED attached to his vehicle on November 24th 2018 (24/11/18). A drive-by shooting of the SDF's Manbij HQ on December 6th 2018 (6/12/18). Which resulted in no casualties.
The majority though have been IED attacks. Targeting both SDF patrols and civilians.
21:00 on 20/2/19 (UK date).
Tuesday, 19 February 2019
Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 3, Day 3.
Within the Syria there are still five main areas of operation. Reading from right-to-left;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.
Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element makes up around 50% of the SDF. It is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
The SDF is currently supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.
The only area of Shangri-La which has so far not fallen under SDF control is an area known as the; "Hajin Pocket."
This is a roughly 35km (20 mile) long, 10km (6 mile) wide area stretching along the north bank of the Euphrates River. From the town of Hajin to Mount Baghouz, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
This Hajin Pocket has remained under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL).
Within this roughly 350kmsq (210 milesq) Hajin Pocket there are 12 main towns/villages. Reading from the north-west to the south-east;
Hajin, Abu Hassan, Al Kashmah, As Sha'fah, Al Bubadran, Al-Ulayat, As-Sousse/Susah, Al Marashidah, Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira, as-Safafinah, Baghouz Fawqani and Baghouz Tahtani.
Amongst these 12 towns there sit a number of small villages and hamlets. In the space between them ISIL have built up layers of defences.
These defences are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.
On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the Hajin Pocket itself. The objective was to isolate it from the Syria/Iraq border and to isolate the towns within it from each other.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
By August 7th 2018 (7/4/18) these first two phases of Operation: Round Up had been completed.
Over the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. It's objective was to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket.
On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) bad weather set in across the area. This allowed ISIL to launch a large, coordinated and highly effective counter-offensive. Across all of the Hajin Pocket.
October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) this ISIL counter-offensive forced the SDF to retreat from the Hajin Pocket and temporarily suspend their operations.
On November 14th 2018 (14/11/18) the SDF resumed their operation to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket. By November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) this now Phase Four of Operation Round Up had established three SDF battle axis';
A north-western axis focused on Hajin.
A south-eastern axis focused on Baghouz.
A northern axis. This time focused on Shafah.
The Baghouz and Shafah axis most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.
However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. To allow advances to be made on the Hajin axis.
On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) the SDF liberated Abu al-Khatir. This is technically a separate village which sits directly adjacent to Hajin's south-eastern tip.
The liberation of Abu al-Khatir marked the complete liberation of Hajin.
On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18) the SDF entered Abu Hassan. The town which sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
By December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) the SDF had liberated Abu Hassan and moved on to Khasham. Which sits around 3km (2 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan.
After just a day of fighting the SDF liberated Khasham on December 29th (29/12/18). They then advanced the roughly 2km (1.2 miles) to the south-east. Joining the battle for Shafah from the north-west.
On January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF were able to declare Shafah liberated. Along with the town of Abu Bubadran. Which sits directly adjacent to Shafah's south-eastern tip.
Following the liberation of Abu Bubadran on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF's north-western axis advanced on al-Ulayat. The town which sits between Abu Bubadran and Sousse.
Al-Ulayat presented no problem the SDF. They swiftly liberated it and joined the battle for Sousse the same day
By January 20th 2019 (20/1/19) Sousse had effectively been liberated. The SDF then moved onto Mouzan. A village sitting with Sousse directly to its north-west and Safafinah directly to its west.
On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) the SDF liberated Mouzan. With fighting moving to Safafinah and Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira. A town which sits with Mouzan to its north-west.
On January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) both Safafinah and Shalja were liberated. Amid ISIL's defences collapsing and its fighters fleeing to Al Marashidah. Marashidah sits directly on the banks of the Euphrates. With Sousse to its north and Safafinah to its east.
The SDF chased ISIL into Marashidah with fighting there beginning the following day. January 24th 2019 (24/1/19).
On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) the SDF fully liberated Marashidah.
This left ISIL in just Baghouz Fawqani. Along with the patches of open land between Marashidah to the west and Baghouz Tahtani to the east.
Throughout this Phase Four of Operation: Round Up the SDF have been battling ISIL within Baghouz Fawqani and its surroundings. Specifically on two sub-axis.
One at the very south-east of the town by the Baghouz Cliffs. A second to the north-west of the town. Roughly where it is separated from Sousse by Mouzan.
On both of these sub-axis' the SDF have been able to make significant progress within Baghouz Fawqani. The reason why the SDF have been unable to formally declare Baghouz Fawqani is that they have not taken full control of the town.
However, by the same token, ISIL themselves have not been in full control of Baghouz Fawqani.
This has provided the SDF with a fantastic opportunity to protect the local civilian population.
On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) the SDF suspended their efforts to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.
Instead they shifted their focus to evacuating civilians from areas which where not under SDF control but where ISIL did not have enough of a presence to stop them. While CJTFOIR air and artillery strikes forced ISIL to hide in their bunkers.
On Saturday, February 9th 2019 (9/2/19) the SDF determined that there were no longer any uncontrolled areas they could rescue civilians from. So they resumed their operation to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.
The start of this final push saw ISIL hold scattered positions across the al-Murasmah, Shuraydah and al-Kanafirah neighbourhoods. It began with CJTFOIR conducting a day of airstrikes to destroy the roads between those neighbourhoods. In order to isolate ISIL's scattered positions from one another.
On Monday, February 11th 2019 (11/2/19) SDF ground units moved into clear the scattered ISIL positions.
By Tuesday, February 12th 2019 (12/2/19) the SDF had cleared ISIL from the southern portion of the Kanafirah neighbourhood. Including the are around the entrance to the destroyed Bukamal bridge. Linking Baghouz Fawqani with the Syrian controlled town of Abu Kamal.
By Thursday, February 14th 2019 (14/2/19) the SDF had cleared ISIL from the Murasmah neighbourhood and the northern section of the Shuraydah neighbourhood. This involved a particularly horrific incident.
In the Shuraydah neighbourhood the SDF had to assault and capture an ISIL weapons store. Many of the ISIL fighters the SDF were forced to kill in capturing this weapons store were aged around 9 or 10 years old.
Significantly younger than the 15 years of age, the minimum age at which people can fight under the laws of war. The same age at which Shamima Begum claims she was too young to know what she was doing when she chose to join ISIL. So we should all feel sympathetic towards her and forgive her.
On Friday, February 15th 2019 (15/2/19) ISIL were finally pushed out of their remaining positions in both the Shuraydah and Kanafirah neighbours. Leaving them in a tiny area of scrubland all of 1km (0.6 miles) north-west of the Bukamal bridge head.
On Saturday, February 16th 2019 (16/2/19) the US Vice President Mike Pence addressed the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany. He described this remaining area under ISIL control as being a square mile.
That seems to be an overestimate. The SDF put the total area as being just 0.5kmsq. Or 250 yards by 250 yards.
To look at this ISIL controlled area is just a squatters camp. A few vehicles and ramshackle tents standing on a small patch of waste ground.
As such I have decided to designate it; "Camp Futility."
The concern though is that ISIL's Camp Futility is located above the entrance to an underground network of tunnels and bunkers.
Even so I must say that is reminds me of the eviction of the Dale Farm Traveller/Gypsy camp. In the British county of Essex in 2011. Although I seem to remember Dale Farm being larger and better defended.
ISIL's Camp Futility though is probably better armed than Dale Farm. But not by much.
ISIL have lost all of their heavy weapons. Leaving them with just small arms such as rifles, pistols, grenades, explosives and possibly the occasional TOW/MILAN type shoulder launched rocket.
So while Baghouz Fawqani has not technically been fully liberated I would say that at this point the battle is most certainly over.
If this were still a battle then Camp Futility is a military position of the size and type that you would simply wipe out with an airstrike. Or an artillery strike.
However before being forced from Baghouz Fawqani ISIL kidnapped between 600 and 1000 civilians. They are now holding these people in the camp as human shields. So while air and artillery strikes are still on the table they are certainly not desirable options at this point.
Figuring out how to dislodge ISIL from this tiny scrap of wasteland actually presents a pretty unique challenge for even the most experienced military planner. Normally when a military force find themselves cornered in a position this hopeless they just give up and surrender.
So I think the SDF are just going to surround the area and wait. Eventually the adrenaline of battle will wear off and ISIL will realise that they are totally trapped. With dwindling supplies of ammunition, food, water and fuel.
In the event of a prolonged siege everything we know about ISIL tells us that they will first deny dwindling resources to their civilian hostages. So they die before ISIL's fighters. It is also highly likely that ISIL will start killing the hostages.
Therefore it may become necessary for the SDF to raid Camp Futility.
The best model of how to go about this seems to come from Egypt. The August 2013 clearance of the Rabaa Mosque and Al-Nahda Square camps.
In July 2013 the people of Egypt held a second revolution. Overthrowing the corrupt President Mohammad Morsi. Of ISIL's parent organisation the Muslim Brotherhood.
In response the Muslim Brotherhood established two squatter camps in Cairo. At the Rabaa Mosque and al-Nahda Square.
The occupants of these camps were armed. With weapons such as rifles, pistols, grenades, explosives.
The camps were being used as a base to stage attacks against the Egyptian security forces. They were also used as a place to kidnap, torture and kill civilian opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Following a month of negotiations with the Muslim Brotherhood to vacate the camp the Egyptian security forces were left with no choice other than to raid it. Swamping it with tear gas while sending bulldozers and armoured vehicles to physically take control of the area. All under the careful watch of snipers.
Strangely, under the laws of war the SDF would not be able to use tear gas. Even if they did have access to it.
Of course in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood responsed to the raid by opening fire on the Egyptian security services. Forcing them to return fire. The Muslim Brotherhood then started shooting all the women and children in the camp. Before finally setting fire to the camp. Burning it to the ground.
This saw around 600 people killed. Including 43 members of the Egyptian security service. The Muslim Brotherhood of course claimed that 2,600 civilians had been killed. With a further 3,994 wounded.
Sadly much of the western media were taken in by the Muslim Brotherhood's Atrocity Propaganda.
To the point that many of them seem to have been recruited by the Muslim Brotherhood. Becoming happy warriors in the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign to delegitimise the Egyptian government. By labelling the 2013 as a coup and declaring the clearance of, particularly the Rabaa camp to be a massacre.
All in support of ISIL's Sinai Province terror campaign against Egypt.
Sadly looking at the Khashoggi and Begum cases the western media have still not learnt their lesson about providing material or moral support to genocidal organisations.
18:30 on 19/2/19 (UK date).
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.
Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element makes up around 50% of the SDF. It is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
The SDF is currently supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.
The only area of Shangri-La which has so far not fallen under SDF control is an area known as the; "Hajin Pocket."
This is a roughly 35km (20 mile) long, 10km (6 mile) wide area stretching along the north bank of the Euphrates River. From the town of Hajin to Mount Baghouz, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
This Hajin Pocket has remained under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL).
Within this roughly 350kmsq (210 milesq) Hajin Pocket there are 12 main towns/villages. Reading from the north-west to the south-east;
Hajin, Abu Hassan, Al Kashmah, As Sha'fah, Al Bubadran, Al-Ulayat, As-Sousse/Susah, Al Marashidah, Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira, as-Safafinah, Baghouz Fawqani and Baghouz Tahtani.
Amongst these 12 towns there sit a number of small villages and hamlets. In the space between them ISIL have built up layers of defences.
These defences are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.
On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the Hajin Pocket itself. The objective was to isolate it from the Syria/Iraq border and to isolate the towns within it from each other.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
By August 7th 2018 (7/4/18) these first two phases of Operation: Round Up had been completed.
Over the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. It's objective was to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket.
On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) bad weather set in across the area. This allowed ISIL to launch a large, coordinated and highly effective counter-offensive. Across all of the Hajin Pocket.
October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) this ISIL counter-offensive forced the SDF to retreat from the Hajin Pocket and temporarily suspend their operations.
On November 14th 2018 (14/11/18) the SDF resumed their operation to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket. By November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) this now Phase Four of Operation Round Up had established three SDF battle axis';
A north-western axis focused on Hajin.
A south-eastern axis focused on Baghouz.
A northern axis. This time focused on Shafah.
The Baghouz and Shafah axis most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.
However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. To allow advances to be made on the Hajin axis.
On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) the SDF liberated Abu al-Khatir. This is technically a separate village which sits directly adjacent to Hajin's south-eastern tip.
The liberation of Abu al-Khatir marked the complete liberation of Hajin.
On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18) the SDF entered Abu Hassan. The town which sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
By December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) the SDF had liberated Abu Hassan and moved on to Khasham. Which sits around 3km (2 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan.
After just a day of fighting the SDF liberated Khasham on December 29th (29/12/18). They then advanced the roughly 2km (1.2 miles) to the south-east. Joining the battle for Shafah from the north-west.
On January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF were able to declare Shafah liberated. Along with the town of Abu Bubadran. Which sits directly adjacent to Shafah's south-eastern tip.
Following the liberation of Abu Bubadran on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF's north-western axis advanced on al-Ulayat. The town which sits between Abu Bubadran and Sousse.
Al-Ulayat presented no problem the SDF. They swiftly liberated it and joined the battle for Sousse the same day
By January 20th 2019 (20/1/19) Sousse had effectively been liberated. The SDF then moved onto Mouzan. A village sitting with Sousse directly to its north-west and Safafinah directly to its west.
On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) the SDF liberated Mouzan. With fighting moving to Safafinah and Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira. A town which sits with Mouzan to its north-west.
On January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) both Safafinah and Shalja were liberated. Amid ISIL's defences collapsing and its fighters fleeing to Al Marashidah. Marashidah sits directly on the banks of the Euphrates. With Sousse to its north and Safafinah to its east.
The SDF chased ISIL into Marashidah with fighting there beginning the following day. January 24th 2019 (24/1/19).
On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) the SDF fully liberated Marashidah.
This left ISIL in just Baghouz Fawqani. Along with the patches of open land between Marashidah to the west and Baghouz Tahtani to the east.
Throughout this Phase Four of Operation: Round Up the SDF have been battling ISIL within Baghouz Fawqani and its surroundings. Specifically on two sub-axis.
One at the very south-east of the town by the Baghouz Cliffs. A second to the north-west of the town. Roughly where it is separated from Sousse by Mouzan.
On both of these sub-axis' the SDF have been able to make significant progress within Baghouz Fawqani. The reason why the SDF have been unable to formally declare Baghouz Fawqani is that they have not taken full control of the town.
However, by the same token, ISIL themselves have not been in full control of Baghouz Fawqani.
This has provided the SDF with a fantastic opportunity to protect the local civilian population.
On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) the SDF suspended their efforts to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.
Instead they shifted their focus to evacuating civilians from areas which where not under SDF control but where ISIL did not have enough of a presence to stop them. While CJTFOIR air and artillery strikes forced ISIL to hide in their bunkers.
On Saturday, February 9th 2019 (9/2/19) the SDF determined that there were no longer any uncontrolled areas they could rescue civilians from. So they resumed their operation to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.
The start of this final push saw ISIL hold scattered positions across the al-Murasmah, Shuraydah and al-Kanafirah neighbourhoods. It began with CJTFOIR conducting a day of airstrikes to destroy the roads between those neighbourhoods. In order to isolate ISIL's scattered positions from one another.
On Monday, February 11th 2019 (11/2/19) SDF ground units moved into clear the scattered ISIL positions.
By Tuesday, February 12th 2019 (12/2/19) the SDF had cleared ISIL from the southern portion of the Kanafirah neighbourhood. Including the are around the entrance to the destroyed Bukamal bridge. Linking Baghouz Fawqani with the Syrian controlled town of Abu Kamal.
By Thursday, February 14th 2019 (14/2/19) the SDF had cleared ISIL from the Murasmah neighbourhood and the northern section of the Shuraydah neighbourhood. This involved a particularly horrific incident.
In the Shuraydah neighbourhood the SDF had to assault and capture an ISIL weapons store. Many of the ISIL fighters the SDF were forced to kill in capturing this weapons store were aged around 9 or 10 years old.
Significantly younger than the 15 years of age, the minimum age at which people can fight under the laws of war. The same age at which Shamima Begum claims she was too young to know what she was doing when she chose to join ISIL. So we should all feel sympathetic towards her and forgive her.
On Friday, February 15th 2019 (15/2/19) ISIL were finally pushed out of their remaining positions in both the Shuraydah and Kanafirah neighbours. Leaving them in a tiny area of scrubland all of 1km (0.6 miles) north-west of the Bukamal bridge head.
On Saturday, February 16th 2019 (16/2/19) the US Vice President Mike Pence addressed the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany. He described this remaining area under ISIL control as being a square mile.
That seems to be an overestimate. The SDF put the total area as being just 0.5kmsq. Or 250 yards by 250 yards.
To look at this ISIL controlled area is just a squatters camp. A few vehicles and ramshackle tents standing on a small patch of waste ground.
As such I have decided to designate it; "Camp Futility."
The concern though is that ISIL's Camp Futility is located above the entrance to an underground network of tunnels and bunkers.
Even so I must say that is reminds me of the eviction of the Dale Farm Traveller/Gypsy camp. In the British county of Essex in 2011. Although I seem to remember Dale Farm being larger and better defended.
ISIL's Camp Futility though is probably better armed than Dale Farm. But not by much.
ISIL have lost all of their heavy weapons. Leaving them with just small arms such as rifles, pistols, grenades, explosives and possibly the occasional TOW/MILAN type shoulder launched rocket.
So while Baghouz Fawqani has not technically been fully liberated I would say that at this point the battle is most certainly over.
If this were still a battle then Camp Futility is a military position of the size and type that you would simply wipe out with an airstrike. Or an artillery strike.
However before being forced from Baghouz Fawqani ISIL kidnapped between 600 and 1000 civilians. They are now holding these people in the camp as human shields. So while air and artillery strikes are still on the table they are certainly not desirable options at this point.
Figuring out how to dislodge ISIL from this tiny scrap of wasteland actually presents a pretty unique challenge for even the most experienced military planner. Normally when a military force find themselves cornered in a position this hopeless they just give up and surrender.
So I think the SDF are just going to surround the area and wait. Eventually the adrenaline of battle will wear off and ISIL will realise that they are totally trapped. With dwindling supplies of ammunition, food, water and fuel.
In the event of a prolonged siege everything we know about ISIL tells us that they will first deny dwindling resources to their civilian hostages. So they die before ISIL's fighters. It is also highly likely that ISIL will start killing the hostages.
Therefore it may become necessary for the SDF to raid Camp Futility.
The best model of how to go about this seems to come from Egypt. The August 2013 clearance of the Rabaa Mosque and Al-Nahda Square camps.
In July 2013 the people of Egypt held a second revolution. Overthrowing the corrupt President Mohammad Morsi. Of ISIL's parent organisation the Muslim Brotherhood.
In response the Muslim Brotherhood established two squatter camps in Cairo. At the Rabaa Mosque and al-Nahda Square.
The occupants of these camps were armed. With weapons such as rifles, pistols, grenades, explosives.
The camps were being used as a base to stage attacks against the Egyptian security forces. They were also used as a place to kidnap, torture and kill civilian opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Following a month of negotiations with the Muslim Brotherhood to vacate the camp the Egyptian security forces were left with no choice other than to raid it. Swamping it with tear gas while sending bulldozers and armoured vehicles to physically take control of the area. All under the careful watch of snipers.
Strangely, under the laws of war the SDF would not be able to use tear gas. Even if they did have access to it.
Of course in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood responsed to the raid by opening fire on the Egyptian security services. Forcing them to return fire. The Muslim Brotherhood then started shooting all the women and children in the camp. Before finally setting fire to the camp. Burning it to the ground.
This saw around 600 people killed. Including 43 members of the Egyptian security service. The Muslim Brotherhood of course claimed that 2,600 civilians had been killed. With a further 3,994 wounded.
Sadly much of the western media were taken in by the Muslim Brotherhood's Atrocity Propaganda.
To the point that many of them seem to have been recruited by the Muslim Brotherhood. Becoming happy warriors in the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign to delegitimise the Egyptian government. By labelling the 2013 as a coup and declaring the clearance of, particularly the Rabaa camp to be a massacre.
All in support of ISIL's Sinai Province terror campaign against Egypt.
Sadly looking at the Khashoggi and Begum cases the western media have still not learnt their lesson about providing material or moral support to genocidal organisations.
18:30 on 19/2/19 (UK date).
Monday, 18 February 2019
Britain's Sh*t the Bed Again.
For the past five days the news in Britain has been dominated by Shamima Begum. Who is currently in the custody of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) in Syria.
The reason for this is that Britain has failed to understand the events over the past two months in Syria. As a result it is now incompetently flailing about.
In a way that is embarrassing to be associated with.
So my priority should be catching up on the events of the past two months.
However the Begum story has provoked such anger in Britain, Syria and Iraq that it is impossible for me to ignore. It is also so unspeakably offensive it is hard for any right thinking person to concentrate on anything else.
On Thursday (14/2/19) Britain's "The Times" newspaper published an audio interview it had conducted with Begum. This was published on the newspaper's website and re-published by almost all British TV and radio news broadcasters.
On Sunday (17/2/19) Britain's "Sky News" news channel conducted a video interview with Begum. Again this was re-published by almost all of Britain's TV and radio broadcaster.
In both the audio and video interviews Begum confirms that she is a member of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). She uses the interviews to call for sympathy towards her as a member of ISIL. By giving Begum this platform the broadcasters involved are supporting ISIL. In almost the most literal sense.
In UK law ISIL are a proscribed terror group. Under the Terrorism Act 2000. Section 12 of the Act creates the offence of supporting a proscribed terror group. An offence which carries a sentence of 10 years imprisonment.
So this is simply a criminal matter. The police should have already arrested any journalist, editor, etc who is responsible for the decision to give support to a proscribed terror group.
Those who have committed the offence will attempt to argue that they were justified in doing so. On the grounds that the debate over what to do with captured members of ISIL is in the public interest.
This debate has been a constant thoughout the four and a half year conflict against ISIL. Particularly following the liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul in July 2017. Also particularly following the liberation of the Syrian city of Raqqa in October 2017.
There is barely a day that goes by without news of how the strategy to deal with the children of ISIL in both Syria and Iraq is progressing.
At all of these points the British media have decided that the debate over what to do with captured members of ISIL is not in the public interest. So have taken the editorial decision not to air content relating to it.
The debate over what to do with captured members of ISIL has been running for so long we are actually at the point where there is nothing new to add. It wasn't even a particularly complex debate to begin with.
Those captured have been captured on a battlefield in a UN designated theatre of war. Therefore civilian law does not apply to them. Instead they are covered by the laws of war. Essentially the Geneva Conventions.
The Geneva Conventions lay out the judicial process to be applied to these prisoners. The; "Due Process."
As soon as is practicable they are to be placed before a Military Tribunal. That tribunal's first task is to determine whether they are a civilian or a member of an armed group.
If it is determined the prisoner is a member of an armed group the tribunal's next task is to determine whether that armed group is a legal or an illegal one.
The Geneva Conventions also lay out the exact criteria for what a legal armed group is. However ISIL's activities such as genocide, ethnic cleansing, slavery, sexual slavery and other Crimes Against Humanity are all definite no-no's under the Geneva Convention.
If the tribunal determines the prisoner is a member of an illegal armed group then the prisoner is to be executed.
Within Syria there is a small, practical problem in applying this sentence.
In the Syria conflict ISIL and Al Qaeda loosely represent Sunni Muslims. The Syrian government and Hezbollah are Shia Muslims. The YPG element of the SDF are fricking Anarchists. One of their main ideological influences is American social theorist Murray Bookchin.
Due to a deep ideological objection the YPG have been clear from their inception. They will not use the death penalty in areas of Syria under their control. Regardless of the offender and the severity of the offence.
There is fortunately a very simple solution to this. Once it has been determined that prisoners are members of an illegal armed group they are transferred to the custody of the Syrian government. Which has no such ideological objection to the death penalty.
This solution puts certain nations of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) in a difficult position. They have spent eights years supporting ISIL and associated groups by attempting to claim that there is something wrong with Syria's execution of prisoners.
That is despite those nations being fully aware that execution is the lawful and internationally agreed punishment for members of illegal armed groups. The punishment is necessarily harsh in order to provide a strong deterrent against people joining illegal armed groups.
If you're morally outraged by the notion of the death penalty I doubt your mind can even conceive of the things you would need to do to another human being to be classed as an unlawful combatant.
Particularly in the case of ISIL it's like paedophilia. If you do understand it then that really only proves there's something seriously wrong with you.
If CJTFOIR are not prepared to allow the SDF to transfer prisoners to the Syrians for execution the prisoners can simply be transferred to Iraq instead. Iraq most certainly does execute illegal combatants. In December 2017 they hung 38 of them in a single day.
Even if Iraq are not to accept these illegal combatants CJTFOIR can execute them itself in Syria. I mean that in the sense that if transport can be arranged I will do it personally. I will then stand before God and the International Criminal Court (ICC) and happily explain why I do not feel bad about my actions for even a moment.
CJTFOIR, particularly the US are hesitant to do this because they wish to keep gathering intelligence by reinterviewing the prisoners. You have to question of how much intelligence value someone like Begum actually represents. Plus once an illegal combatant is sentenced it doesn't mean they have to be executed in a timely fashion and there is nothing to stop them being interrogated during their period of detention.
As I've stated at all other times this point has been discussed I'm only referring to foreign ISIL members. Discretion should be used to give lighter punishments to local fighters who have been conscripted by ISIL. Such as the local fighters the SDF have already released to the supervision of their tribes.
British broadcaster's decision to give Begum a platform to elicit support for ISIL constitutes a serious criminal offence. Against Section 12 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
As such it seems almost pointless to also look at the elements of the OFCOM Broadcasting Code regulations these broadcasters have also violated.
However the story has been presented to the public in a materially misleading way. In a number of areas.
For example it is being claimed that civilian law applies to Begum's case. Things like they Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) or the Human Rights Act of 1998. This is materially incorrect. Those captured on a battlefield in a UN designated theatre of war are subject only to the laws of war.
It is also being claimed that Begum is a child. She is currently aged 19 years. Clearly over the age of majority of 18 years under UK civilian law. Also the age of majority in the laws of war which apply in this case is 15 years. So Begum is considered an adult both now and when she originally left the UK in 2015.
It is being claimed that Begum is British. This too is false. All ISIL members are required to renounce their existing citzenships upon becoming members of the group. As such Begum has voluntarily renounced the right to be described as a British citizen. The fact this choice has made her voluntarily stateless is really something she should have considered at the time.
It is also being claimed that Britain cannot make Begum and other ISIL members stateless.
In terms of its legal relevance this point is about a useful as a debate over whether Britain has the power to turn Begum into an Elephant.
The decision to become stateless was one Begum took in 2015. It is not in Britain's power to reverse that decision.
Britain can only consider whether it wants to grant refugee status, and a possible path to citizenship to Begum. That too is a very short debate. The 1951 Convention on Refugees expressly forbids the granting of refugee status to members of illegal armed groups.
It is also wholly untrue to claim that nations cannot make its citizens stateless.
A rather famous example is this is Canada. In 1977 it changed the law regarding people with dual nationality. So that they had to formally reapply for the Canadian citizenship before reaching 28 years of age. However the Canadian government then completely forgot to tell anyone about this.
So, 28 years later, in 2005 the Canadian government discovered that it had made hundreds of its citizens stateless. Due to simple clerical error.
These people had never waged war against Canada. They never joined an illegal armed group. They certainly had not committed Crimes Against Humanity. However they had no legal recourse to regain their Canadian citizenship.
Across the Middle-East and Africa people being made stateless is widespread. So much so you can describe it as a common practice.
In response the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) launched its; "IBelong" campaign to combat statelessness. This though is primarily aimed at pressuring nations to grant refugees a path to citizenship.
Despite the UNHCR campaign there is absolutely no aspect of law that prevents nations from making its citizens stateless. In fact the opposite is true. The ability to make a citizen stateless is considered a nation's right.
British civil servants have simply been lying to British government ministers when they claim that Britain cannot make people stateless.
They're doing this because they are concerned that if Britain refuses accept ISIL members it will set a diplomatic precedent. One that nations will point to in order to prevent Britain deporting failed asylum seekers.
Here British civil servants fears reveal nothing but their own incompetence.
Much of the relations between nations is done on the basis of consensus and agreement. The repatriation of failed asylum seekers is no exception.
Therefore there is no law by which Britain can force nations to accept failed asylum seekers. So those who wish to refuse are going to refuse. They don't even have to give a reason why they're refusing.
Any diplomat worth their pay though will find it very easy to argue that these ISIL cases are not standard immigration cases.
For example the individuals have renounced all citizenships and are therefore already stateless. They are also members of an illegal armed group which has committed Crimes Against Humanity.
Mainly though they have been captured on a battlefield in a UN designated theatre of war. So civilian law, including immigration law, simply does not apply to them.
16:00 on 18/2/19 (UK date).
The reason for this is that Britain has failed to understand the events over the past two months in Syria. As a result it is now incompetently flailing about.
In a way that is embarrassing to be associated with.
So my priority should be catching up on the events of the past two months.
However the Begum story has provoked such anger in Britain, Syria and Iraq that it is impossible for me to ignore. It is also so unspeakably offensive it is hard for any right thinking person to concentrate on anything else.
On Thursday (14/2/19) Britain's "The Times" newspaper published an audio interview it had conducted with Begum. This was published on the newspaper's website and re-published by almost all British TV and radio news broadcasters.
On Sunday (17/2/19) Britain's "Sky News" news channel conducted a video interview with Begum. Again this was re-published by almost all of Britain's TV and radio broadcaster.
In both the audio and video interviews Begum confirms that she is a member of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). She uses the interviews to call for sympathy towards her as a member of ISIL. By giving Begum this platform the broadcasters involved are supporting ISIL. In almost the most literal sense.
In UK law ISIL are a proscribed terror group. Under the Terrorism Act 2000. Section 12 of the Act creates the offence of supporting a proscribed terror group. An offence which carries a sentence of 10 years imprisonment.
So this is simply a criminal matter. The police should have already arrested any journalist, editor, etc who is responsible for the decision to give support to a proscribed terror group.
Those who have committed the offence will attempt to argue that they were justified in doing so. On the grounds that the debate over what to do with captured members of ISIL is in the public interest.
This debate has been a constant thoughout the four and a half year conflict against ISIL. Particularly following the liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul in July 2017. Also particularly following the liberation of the Syrian city of Raqqa in October 2017.
There is barely a day that goes by without news of how the strategy to deal with the children of ISIL in both Syria and Iraq is progressing.
At all of these points the British media have decided that the debate over what to do with captured members of ISIL is not in the public interest. So have taken the editorial decision not to air content relating to it.
The debate over what to do with captured members of ISIL has been running for so long we are actually at the point where there is nothing new to add. It wasn't even a particularly complex debate to begin with.
Those captured have been captured on a battlefield in a UN designated theatre of war. Therefore civilian law does not apply to them. Instead they are covered by the laws of war. Essentially the Geneva Conventions.
The Geneva Conventions lay out the judicial process to be applied to these prisoners. The; "Due Process."
As soon as is practicable they are to be placed before a Military Tribunal. That tribunal's first task is to determine whether they are a civilian or a member of an armed group.
If it is determined the prisoner is a member of an armed group the tribunal's next task is to determine whether that armed group is a legal or an illegal one.
The Geneva Conventions also lay out the exact criteria for what a legal armed group is. However ISIL's activities such as genocide, ethnic cleansing, slavery, sexual slavery and other Crimes Against Humanity are all definite no-no's under the Geneva Convention.
If the tribunal determines the prisoner is a member of an illegal armed group then the prisoner is to be executed.
Within Syria there is a small, practical problem in applying this sentence.
In the Syria conflict ISIL and Al Qaeda loosely represent Sunni Muslims. The Syrian government and Hezbollah are Shia Muslims. The YPG element of the SDF are fricking Anarchists. One of their main ideological influences is American social theorist Murray Bookchin.
Due to a deep ideological objection the YPG have been clear from their inception. They will not use the death penalty in areas of Syria under their control. Regardless of the offender and the severity of the offence.
There is fortunately a very simple solution to this. Once it has been determined that prisoners are members of an illegal armed group they are transferred to the custody of the Syrian government. Which has no such ideological objection to the death penalty.
This solution puts certain nations of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) in a difficult position. They have spent eights years supporting ISIL and associated groups by attempting to claim that there is something wrong with Syria's execution of prisoners.
That is despite those nations being fully aware that execution is the lawful and internationally agreed punishment for members of illegal armed groups. The punishment is necessarily harsh in order to provide a strong deterrent against people joining illegal armed groups.
If you're morally outraged by the notion of the death penalty I doubt your mind can even conceive of the things you would need to do to another human being to be classed as an unlawful combatant.
Particularly in the case of ISIL it's like paedophilia. If you do understand it then that really only proves there's something seriously wrong with you.
If CJTFOIR are not prepared to allow the SDF to transfer prisoners to the Syrians for execution the prisoners can simply be transferred to Iraq instead. Iraq most certainly does execute illegal combatants. In December 2017 they hung 38 of them in a single day.
Even if Iraq are not to accept these illegal combatants CJTFOIR can execute them itself in Syria. I mean that in the sense that if transport can be arranged I will do it personally. I will then stand before God and the International Criminal Court (ICC) and happily explain why I do not feel bad about my actions for even a moment.
CJTFOIR, particularly the US are hesitant to do this because they wish to keep gathering intelligence by reinterviewing the prisoners. You have to question of how much intelligence value someone like Begum actually represents. Plus once an illegal combatant is sentenced it doesn't mean they have to be executed in a timely fashion and there is nothing to stop them being interrogated during their period of detention.
As I've stated at all other times this point has been discussed I'm only referring to foreign ISIL members. Discretion should be used to give lighter punishments to local fighters who have been conscripted by ISIL. Such as the local fighters the SDF have already released to the supervision of their tribes.
British broadcaster's decision to give Begum a platform to elicit support for ISIL constitutes a serious criminal offence. Against Section 12 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
As such it seems almost pointless to also look at the elements of the OFCOM Broadcasting Code regulations these broadcasters have also violated.
However the story has been presented to the public in a materially misleading way. In a number of areas.
For example it is being claimed that civilian law applies to Begum's case. Things like they Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) or the Human Rights Act of 1998. This is materially incorrect. Those captured on a battlefield in a UN designated theatre of war are subject only to the laws of war.
It is also being claimed that Begum is a child. She is currently aged 19 years. Clearly over the age of majority of 18 years under UK civilian law. Also the age of majority in the laws of war which apply in this case is 15 years. So Begum is considered an adult both now and when she originally left the UK in 2015.
It is being claimed that Begum is British. This too is false. All ISIL members are required to renounce their existing citzenships upon becoming members of the group. As such Begum has voluntarily renounced the right to be described as a British citizen. The fact this choice has made her voluntarily stateless is really something she should have considered at the time.
It is also being claimed that Britain cannot make Begum and other ISIL members stateless.
In terms of its legal relevance this point is about a useful as a debate over whether Britain has the power to turn Begum into an Elephant.
The decision to become stateless was one Begum took in 2015. It is not in Britain's power to reverse that decision.
Britain can only consider whether it wants to grant refugee status, and a possible path to citizenship to Begum. That too is a very short debate. The 1951 Convention on Refugees expressly forbids the granting of refugee status to members of illegal armed groups.
It is also wholly untrue to claim that nations cannot make its citizens stateless.
A rather famous example is this is Canada. In 1977 it changed the law regarding people with dual nationality. So that they had to formally reapply for the Canadian citizenship before reaching 28 years of age. However the Canadian government then completely forgot to tell anyone about this.
So, 28 years later, in 2005 the Canadian government discovered that it had made hundreds of its citizens stateless. Due to simple clerical error.
These people had never waged war against Canada. They never joined an illegal armed group. They certainly had not committed Crimes Against Humanity. However they had no legal recourse to regain their Canadian citizenship.
Across the Middle-East and Africa people being made stateless is widespread. So much so you can describe it as a common practice.
In response the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) launched its; "IBelong" campaign to combat statelessness. This though is primarily aimed at pressuring nations to grant refugees a path to citizenship.
Despite the UNHCR campaign there is absolutely no aspect of law that prevents nations from making its citizens stateless. In fact the opposite is true. The ability to make a citizen stateless is considered a nation's right.
British civil servants have simply been lying to British government ministers when they claim that Britain cannot make people stateless.
They're doing this because they are concerned that if Britain refuses accept ISIL members it will set a diplomatic precedent. One that nations will point to in order to prevent Britain deporting failed asylum seekers.
Here British civil servants fears reveal nothing but their own incompetence.
Much of the relations between nations is done on the basis of consensus and agreement. The repatriation of failed asylum seekers is no exception.
Therefore there is no law by which Britain can force nations to accept failed asylum seekers. So those who wish to refuse are going to refuse. They don't even have to give a reason why they're refusing.
Any diplomat worth their pay though will find it very easy to argue that these ISIL cases are not standard immigration cases.
For example the individuals have renounced all citizenships and are therefore already stateless. They are also members of an illegal armed group which has committed Crimes Against Humanity.
Mainly though they have been captured on a battlefield in a UN designated theatre of war. So civilian law, including immigration law, simply does not apply to them.
16:00 on 18/2/19 (UK date).
Thursday, 14 February 2019
Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 2, Day 5.
A direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.com/2019/02/operation-featherweight-month-56-week-2.html
The liberation of Shafah saw the SDF's north-western axis and northern axis unite. To form a single north-western axis.
Again the liberation of Shafah was carefully coordinated with the SDF's south-eastern axis.
On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF's south-eastern axis advanced from its positions on the Syria/Iraq border to open a Humanitarian Corridor into Sousse. On December 16th 2018 (16/12/18) they developed this Humanitarian Corridor into a full battle front.
On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) the SDF's south-eastern axis liberated Hawl al-Sousse. A village directly adjacent to Sousse's south-eastern side. This saw them break the main defensive ring around Sousse and start to advance into the town proper.
Following the liberation of Abu Bubadran on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF's north-western axis advanced on al-Ulayat. The town which sits between Abu Bubadran and Sousse.
Al-Ulayat presented no problem the SDF. They swiftly liberated it and joined the battle for Sousse the same day. January 15th 2019 (15/1/19). Opening up a second front in the town.
By January 20th 2019 (20/1/19) Sousse had effectively been liberated. The SDF then moved onto Mouzan. A village sitting with Sousse directly to its north-west and Safafinah directly to its west.
On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) the SDF liberated Mouzan. With fighting moving to Safafinah and Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira. A town which sits with Mouzan to its north-west.
On January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) both Safafinah and Shalja were liberated. Amid ISIL's defences collapsing and its fighters fleeing to Al Marashidah. Marashidah sits directly on the banks of the Euphrates. With Sousse to its north and Safafinah to its east.
The SDF chased ISIL into Marashidah with fighting there beginning the following day. January 24th 2019 (24/1/19).
On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) the SDF fully liberated Marashidah.
This left ISIL in just Baghouz Fawqani. Along with the patches of open land between Marashidah to the west and Baghouz Tahtani to the east.
Throughout this Phase Four of Operation: Round Up the situation around Baghouz Fawqani has been complicated. To say the least.
On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF reclaimed their positions along the Syria/Iraq border. From there they advanced down to Mount Baghouz on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18).
The SDF then went around Mount Baghouz to liberate Baghouz Tahtani on December 8th 2018 (8/12/18). This allowed them to attack Mount Baghouz from three sides. Liberating it on December 11th 2018 (11/12/18).
The SDF then advanced north-west from Baghouz Tahtani towards Baghouz Fawqani. Along the Baghouz Cliffs. On January 2nd 2019 (2/1/19) the SDF liberated Harse. A small village directly adjacent to Baghouz Fawqani's south-eastern tip.
However at the same time the SDF also advanced on multiple sub-axis' from the Syria/Iraq border positions. In order to clear ISIL from the desert area between Baghouz Fawqani and the Syria/Iraq border.
The most north-westerly of these sub-axis' saw the SDF reach Sousse and open a Humanitarian Corridor. On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18).
On or around December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) the SDF opened a third sub-axis. This advanced on Baghouz Fawqani's north-westerly tip. Roughly where it is separated from Sousse by Mouzan.
At no point during this Phase Four have the SDF declared Baghouz Fawqani to be liberated.
However on January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) there was a strong rumour that Baghouz Fawqani had been liberated.
This though proved to be untrue when the following day, January 24th 2019 (24/1/19) ISIL launched a sustained counter-offensive. This not only saw them in control of parts Baghouz Fawqani it also saw them in control of parts of Baghouz Tahtani.
Likewise on January 30th 2019 (30/1/19) there were even stronger rumours that the SDF had liberated Baghouz Fawqani.
Again these proved to be untrue when on February 2nd 2019 (2/2/19) ISIL launched another counter-offensive from Baghouz Fawqani. This saw them take control of parts of not only Baghouz Fawqani but also on Baghouz Tahtani and reach Mount Baghouz.
Ultimately though this counter-offensive proved to be nothing more than an attempt by a large number of ISIL fighters to break out from Baghouz Fawqani for the Syria/Iraq border. When they arrived at the Syria/Iraq border they were stopped in their tracks by Iraqi PMF units.
So it seems the reason why the SDF have not yet formally declared Baghouz Fawqani liberated is because they are not in full control of the town. However, by the same token, it is clear that ISIL are themselves not in full control of Baghouz Fawqani.
This has provided the SDF with a fantastic opportunity to protect the local civilian population.
On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) the SDF suspended their efforts to liberate Baghouz Fawqani. Instead they shifted their focus to evacuating civilians for areas which where not under SDF control by where ISIL did not have enough of a presence to stop them. While CJTFOIR air and artillery strikes forced ISIL to hide in their bunkers.
During this period the SDF also opened negotiations with ISIL over the groups peaceful surrender. These though made little progress due to the ridiculous nature of ISIL's demands.
For example on January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) ISIL demanded that they be given free transfer to either the Turkish controlled Sudetenland or to Turkey itself. There is obviously no suggestion that that SDF could allow them to travel to Turkey, and by extension the wider World. So this demand was rejected.
On February 4th 2019 (4/2/19) ISIL demanded transfer to the Turkish controlled Sudetenland. In return for the surrender of Baghouz Fawqani and the release of 29 SDF prisoners they were holding. In rejecting this demand the SDF chose to protect the wider World over bringing their people home.
On February 5th 2019 (5/2/19) the UK Security Minister Ben Wallace made an absolute fool of himself. He told journalists that British civilian hostage John Cantlie is still alive and being held in Hajin. Despite his comments coming almost two months after the liberation of Hajin.
ISIL immediately leaped on Wallace's comments. On February 6th 2019 (6/2/19) they informed the SDF that they were holding Cantlie alive. They promised to release him if the SDF immediately allowed them to be transferred to either the Turkish controlled Sudetenland or to the Syrian Desert.
ISIL also claimed to be holding Italian Priest Father Paolo Dall'oglio alive and offered to release him. This significantly undermined ISIL's offer. It's been widely reported, by multiple sources, that Fr Dall'oglio was executed by ISIL in 2013 and his body dumped in a mass grave alongside other victims of ISIL's genocide in Raqqa City.
On Saturday, February 9th 2019 (9/2/19) the SDF determined that there were no longer any uncontrolled areas they could rescue civilians from. So they resumed their operation to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.
Since then I have been continuing to try to catch up. I am technically still more than a week behind.
So I do not feel that I am knowledgeable enough about the SDF's current, active battle to comment on it here. We are down to the detail of the specific locations of specific fighters. A point where I find I tend to do more harm than good.
I should point out though that both the SDF and CJTFOIR seem to have been treated the Hajin Pocket like one big battle. As if the liberated areas were simply districts of one very big city rather than a dozen separate towns.
Meaning that the SDF have liberated 11 of those 12 towns. However what they have not stopped to check every basement of every house before moving onto the next town. So while they are liberated I would not yet describe them as fully secure.
For example on January 7th 2019 (7/1/19) the SDF were engaged in heavy fighting in Sousse. However this did not stop ISIL taking advantage of another period of bad weather to launch a sustained attack on the SDF in the liberated town of Hajin.
Likewise on January 26th 2019 (26/1/19) the SDF were engaged in heavy fighting in Marashidah. That though did not stop ISIL launching a sustained attack on the SDF in the liberated town of Sousse. An attack that prompted a ten hour firefight in which 11 members of the SDF gave their lives to repel.
So if, or more likely, when Baghouz Fawqani is liberated the SDF will have to spend some time going back over all of the Hajin Pocket. Sweeping it to allow it to transition from liberated to fully secured.
20:50 on 14/2/19 (UK date).
The liberation of Shafah saw the SDF's north-western axis and northern axis unite. To form a single north-western axis.
Again the liberation of Shafah was carefully coordinated with the SDF's south-eastern axis.
On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF's south-eastern axis advanced from its positions on the Syria/Iraq border to open a Humanitarian Corridor into Sousse. On December 16th 2018 (16/12/18) they developed this Humanitarian Corridor into a full battle front.
On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) the SDF's south-eastern axis liberated Hawl al-Sousse. A village directly adjacent to Sousse's south-eastern side. This saw them break the main defensive ring around Sousse and start to advance into the town proper.
Following the liberation of Abu Bubadran on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19) the SDF's north-western axis advanced on al-Ulayat. The town which sits between Abu Bubadran and Sousse.
Al-Ulayat presented no problem the SDF. They swiftly liberated it and joined the battle for Sousse the same day. January 15th 2019 (15/1/19). Opening up a second front in the town.
By January 20th 2019 (20/1/19) Sousse had effectively been liberated. The SDF then moved onto Mouzan. A village sitting with Sousse directly to its north-west and Safafinah directly to its west.
On January 21st 2019 (21/1/19) the SDF liberated Mouzan. With fighting moving to Safafinah and Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira. A town which sits with Mouzan to its north-west.
On January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) both Safafinah and Shalja were liberated. Amid ISIL's defences collapsing and its fighters fleeing to Al Marashidah. Marashidah sits directly on the banks of the Euphrates. With Sousse to its north and Safafinah to its east.
The SDF chased ISIL into Marashidah with fighting there beginning the following day. January 24th 2019 (24/1/19).
On January 28th 2019 (28/1/19) the SDF fully liberated Marashidah.
This left ISIL in just Baghouz Fawqani. Along with the patches of open land between Marashidah to the west and Baghouz Tahtani to the east.
Throughout this Phase Four of Operation: Round Up the situation around Baghouz Fawqani has been complicated. To say the least.
On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF reclaimed their positions along the Syria/Iraq border. From there they advanced down to Mount Baghouz on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18).
The SDF then went around Mount Baghouz to liberate Baghouz Tahtani on December 8th 2018 (8/12/18). This allowed them to attack Mount Baghouz from three sides. Liberating it on December 11th 2018 (11/12/18).
The SDF then advanced north-west from Baghouz Tahtani towards Baghouz Fawqani. Along the Baghouz Cliffs. On January 2nd 2019 (2/1/19) the SDF liberated Harse. A small village directly adjacent to Baghouz Fawqani's south-eastern tip.
However at the same time the SDF also advanced on multiple sub-axis' from the Syria/Iraq border positions. In order to clear ISIL from the desert area between Baghouz Fawqani and the Syria/Iraq border.
The most north-westerly of these sub-axis' saw the SDF reach Sousse and open a Humanitarian Corridor. On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18).
On or around December 12th 2018 (12/12/18) the SDF opened a third sub-axis. This advanced on Baghouz Fawqani's north-westerly tip. Roughly where it is separated from Sousse by Mouzan.
At no point during this Phase Four have the SDF declared Baghouz Fawqani to be liberated.
However on January 23rd 2019 (23/1/19) there was a strong rumour that Baghouz Fawqani had been liberated.
This though proved to be untrue when the following day, January 24th 2019 (24/1/19) ISIL launched a sustained counter-offensive. This not only saw them in control of parts Baghouz Fawqani it also saw them in control of parts of Baghouz Tahtani.
Likewise on January 30th 2019 (30/1/19) there were even stronger rumours that the SDF had liberated Baghouz Fawqani.
Again these proved to be untrue when on February 2nd 2019 (2/2/19) ISIL launched another counter-offensive from Baghouz Fawqani. This saw them take control of parts of not only Baghouz Fawqani but also on Baghouz Tahtani and reach Mount Baghouz.
Ultimately though this counter-offensive proved to be nothing more than an attempt by a large number of ISIL fighters to break out from Baghouz Fawqani for the Syria/Iraq border. When they arrived at the Syria/Iraq border they were stopped in their tracks by Iraqi PMF units.
So it seems the reason why the SDF have not yet formally declared Baghouz Fawqani liberated is because they are not in full control of the town. However, by the same token, it is clear that ISIL are themselves not in full control of Baghouz Fawqani.
This has provided the SDF with a fantastic opportunity to protect the local civilian population.
On January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) the SDF suspended their efforts to liberate Baghouz Fawqani. Instead they shifted their focus to evacuating civilians for areas which where not under SDF control by where ISIL did not have enough of a presence to stop them. While CJTFOIR air and artillery strikes forced ISIL to hide in their bunkers.
During this period the SDF also opened negotiations with ISIL over the groups peaceful surrender. These though made little progress due to the ridiculous nature of ISIL's demands.
For example on January 29th 2019 (29/1/19) ISIL demanded that they be given free transfer to either the Turkish controlled Sudetenland or to Turkey itself. There is obviously no suggestion that that SDF could allow them to travel to Turkey, and by extension the wider World. So this demand was rejected.
On February 4th 2019 (4/2/19) ISIL demanded transfer to the Turkish controlled Sudetenland. In return for the surrender of Baghouz Fawqani and the release of 29 SDF prisoners they were holding. In rejecting this demand the SDF chose to protect the wider World over bringing their people home.
On February 5th 2019 (5/2/19) the UK Security Minister Ben Wallace made an absolute fool of himself. He told journalists that British civilian hostage John Cantlie is still alive and being held in Hajin. Despite his comments coming almost two months after the liberation of Hajin.
ISIL immediately leaped on Wallace's comments. On February 6th 2019 (6/2/19) they informed the SDF that they were holding Cantlie alive. They promised to release him if the SDF immediately allowed them to be transferred to either the Turkish controlled Sudetenland or to the Syrian Desert.
ISIL also claimed to be holding Italian Priest Father Paolo Dall'oglio alive and offered to release him. This significantly undermined ISIL's offer. It's been widely reported, by multiple sources, that Fr Dall'oglio was executed by ISIL in 2013 and his body dumped in a mass grave alongside other victims of ISIL's genocide in Raqqa City.
On Saturday, February 9th 2019 (9/2/19) the SDF determined that there were no longer any uncontrolled areas they could rescue civilians from. So they resumed their operation to liberate Baghouz Fawqani.
Since then I have been continuing to try to catch up. I am technically still more than a week behind.
So I do not feel that I am knowledgeable enough about the SDF's current, active battle to comment on it here. We are down to the detail of the specific locations of specific fighters. A point where I find I tend to do more harm than good.
I should point out though that both the SDF and CJTFOIR seem to have been treated the Hajin Pocket like one big battle. As if the liberated areas were simply districts of one very big city rather than a dozen separate towns.
Meaning that the SDF have liberated 11 of those 12 towns. However what they have not stopped to check every basement of every house before moving onto the next town. So while they are liberated I would not yet describe them as fully secure.
For example on January 7th 2019 (7/1/19) the SDF were engaged in heavy fighting in Sousse. However this did not stop ISIL taking advantage of another period of bad weather to launch a sustained attack on the SDF in the liberated town of Hajin.
Likewise on January 26th 2019 (26/1/19) the SDF were engaged in heavy fighting in Marashidah. That though did not stop ISIL launching a sustained attack on the SDF in the liberated town of Sousse. An attack that prompted a ten hour firefight in which 11 members of the SDF gave their lives to repel.
So if, or more likely, when Baghouz Fawqani is liberated the SDF will have to spend some time going back over all of the Hajin Pocket. Sweeping it to allow it to transition from liberated to fully secured.
20:50 on 14/2/19 (UK date).
Wednesday, 13 February 2019
Operation Featherweight: Month 56, Week 2, Day 4.
In mid-December 2018 I was called away for a month. To deal with the emerging crisis of Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). The infamous; "Brexit."
Frustratingly this was the month where everything started to happen in Syria.
So since mid-January I have been working to catch up.
It turns out that within the Syria there are still five main areas. Reading from right-to-left;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.
Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria. It is these tribal forces that have been pushed to the fore in recent months.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
The SDF is currently supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.
The only area of Shangri-La which has so far not fallen under SDF control is an area known as the; "Hajin Pocket."
This is a roughly 35km (20 mile) long, 10km (6 mile) wide area stretching along the north bank of the Euphrates River. From the town of Hajin to Mount Baghouz, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
This Hajin Pocket has remained under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL).
Within this roughly 350kmsq (210 milesq) Hajin Pocket there are 12 main towns/villages. Reading from the north-west to the south-east;
Hajin, Abu Hassan, Al Kashmah, As Sha'fah, Al Bubadran, Al-Ulayat, As-Sousse/Susah, Al Marashidah, Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira, as-Safafinah, Baghouz Fawqani and Baghouz Tahtani.
Amongst these 12 towns there sit a number of small villages and hamlets. In the space between them ISIL have built up layers of defences.
These defences are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.
On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the Hajin Pocket itself. The objective was to isolate it from the Syria/Iraq border and to isolate the towns within it from each other.
This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th 2018 (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghouz Tahtani and Baghouz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th 2018 (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghouz Tahtani and surrounded Baghouz Fawqani.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghouz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.
On August 7th 2018 (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up.
As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.
Over the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. It's objective was to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket.
This third phase of Operation Round Up was conducted on three axis;
The north-western axis focused on Hajin.
The south-western axis focused on Baghuz Fawqani.
The third axis was a northern one, focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.
The Hajin axis and the Sousse axis were most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.
However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. Although no-one mentioned that to ISIL.
The pressure being applied to ISIL on the Hajin and Sousse axis' allowed the SDF to advance on the Baghouz Fawqani axis. Where they made rapid progress.
On September 20th 2018 (20/9/18) the SDF completely liberated Baghouz Fawqani.
Directly to the north of Baghouz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.
So with Baghouz Fawqani liberated both that axis and the SDF's Sousse axis turned their attention to al-Shalja. This was liberated on September 25th 2018 (25/9/18).
This saw the SDF's south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis merge and effectively become one single axis.
Directly to the west of al-Shalja you have the town of as-Safafinah. To the west of as-Safafinah you have the town of al-Marashidah.
On September 28th (28/9/18) the SDF's now combined south-western axis began to advance out of al-Shalja. In an effort to liberate both Safafinah and Marashidah.
On October 2nd 2018 (2/10/18) the SDF entered Safafinah. On October 7th 2018 (7/10/18) the SDF entered Marashidah.
By October 10th 2018 (10/10/18) there were reports that the SDF had fully liberated Marashidah. Amid a sudden withdrawal of ISIL forces from the town.
Unfortunately October 10th 2018 (10/10/18) also brought the first major setback in the SDF's operation.
As it tends to do when September gives way to October the weather turned. Bringing with it heavy rainstorms and sandstorms.
This poor weather and loss of visibility severely hampered CJTFOIR's ability to provide the SDF with close air support. Allowing ISIL to deploy Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (S-VBIEDS), essentially truck bombs, in a large-scale, coordinated counter-offensive against the SDF. On all fronts.
The worst day of SDF losses in this five day ISIL counter-offensive came on October 12th 2018 (12/10/18).
The SDF were forced to withdraw entirely from both Marashidah and Safafinah. This allowed ISIL to cut the SDF's supply lines with al-Shalja and Baghouz Fawqani. Prompting fierce fighting in both towns.
On the same day ISIL were able to break through the SDF's lines at Sousse. This allowed them to make a break for the Syria/Iraq border. Where they were only stopped by the intervention of units of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias.
Alarmingly ISIL also broke through the SDF's lines at Hajin. This allowed them to reach al-Bahrah which sits around 5km (3 miles) north-west of Hajin.
There ISIL mounted an attack on the Bahrah camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP). Kidnapping and taking hostage some 700 civilians who had fled the group in the Hajin Pocket.
On October 15th 2018 (15/10/18) the weather shifted again. This allowed the SDF to quickly recover all the territory they had lost to ISIL in the previous five days.
On October 22nd 2018 (22/10/18) the SDF turned its attention to liberating Sousse. While cutting it off from Marashidah.
By the following day, October 23rd (23/10/18) the SDF were in control of almost 70% of Sousse. On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) the SDF had all but completely liberated Sousse. With just a small pocket of ISIL resistance holding out.
On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) the bad weather set in again. This allowed ISIL to launch another large, coordinated and highly effective counter-offensive. Across all of the Hajin Pocket.
The worst day of SDF losses during this counter-offensive came on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18).
Having been unable to consolidate their control over Sousse the SDF were quickly forced out of the town. ISIL then concentrated their attacks on the SDF south of Sousse. The line dividing Marashidah from Safafinah.
ISIL focused their attacks on an element of the SDF line or "Echelon" made up of the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC). The local Arab tribal fighters. This DEZ-MC echelon was smashed apart with 78 of its 100 members being killed.
The destruction of the DEZ-MC echelon created a gap in the SDF line through which ISIL fighters flowed. Facing being outflanked by ISIL the SDF had no option other than to withdraw the entire line. Or risk seeing all of the fighters in the line being slaughtered.
This enforced retreat led to the SDF having to abandon all of its positions in the Hajin Pocket by October 28th 2018 (28/10/18). Wiping out all the gains made during the previous 47 days of battle.
Unfortunately the SDF weren't just forced from the positions they'd gained in Phase Three of Operation: Round Up. They were also forced from many of the positions they'd gained in Phases One and Two of the operation.
So the SDF were forced from the area to the south-east of Hajin. Positions which had isolated it from the neighbouring town of Abu Hassan.
The SDF also lost control of the positions they had gained along the Syria/Iraq border. Essentially a network of thirty fighting positions stretching up from Mount Baghouz to the Mallah Salt Pan.
On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the Iraqi PMF were forced to cross into Syria to take control of these positions. In order to prevent them falling under ISIL control.
It has been harder to assess the impact the defeat had on the SDF's control over the area to the north of the Hajin Pocket. That's because this area is largely unpopulated desert.
The SDF's control over it was through a network of small bases known as; "Control Points" and positions. Some of which can be as small as a platoon of between 16 and 44 troops dug in with a handful of vehicles.
During periods of poor visibility, such as during bad weather or at night, it is easy to sneak between these Control Points undetected. So throughout the period after the SDF took control of this area in August 2018 ISIL have always been able to conduct small attacks against it and beyond it.
However following the October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) defeat ISIL were able to mount large attacks in the around the ar-Rawdah Salt Pan. This sits around 25km (15 miles) north of the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field and around 90km (50 miles) north of the Hajin Pocket.
In response to the October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) defeat the SDF announced their intention to re-establish the Phases One and Two containment of the Hajin Pocket. Then suspend their operations until the Spring of 2019. In order all them time to re-group and for the weather to clear. So CJTFOIR could supply more reliable close air support.
CJTFOIR though had other ideas. At a meeting on November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) the French and US elements bullied the SDF into resuming operations immediately.
This move seemed primarily driven by a desire that Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump, the respective Presidents of France and the US not be embarrassed by having to accept even a small defeat on the day they gathered to mark the centenary of the end of World War One.
Following the announcement on November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) SDF operations resumed on November 14th 2018 (14/11/18). With nothing more sophisticated than an attempt to advance directly from Bahrah to Hajin.
At the time Hajin was considered to be ISIL's de facto capital. It was also believed to be the location of the group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
A suspicion which was only strengthened on November 16th 2018 (16/11/18) with reports that two of Baghdadi's sons had been killed in the town. Including his favoured second son Motaz al-Badri.
So great was CJTFOIR's desire to declare Hajin liberated and Baghdadi captured or killed this new phase of SDF operations seemed to be being conducted without anything resembling a strategy. Instead, in something of a blind tantrum, CJTFOIR just sent the SDF to bash away at the gates of Hajin. While CJTFOIR set about flattening the town with heavy air and artillery strikes.
This came at a great toll to the SDF fighters on the frontline. Particularly the poorly trained, recently conscripted Arab tribal fighters of the DEZ-MC. It also came at a great toll to the civilians trapped in Hajin and the civilians who would have to return and try and make a life in an utterly destroyed town.
It was also hugely ineffective. Not only were the SDF unable to make gains into Hajin they initially ended up losing further territory to ISIL.
On November 24th 2018 (24/11/18) ISIL launched an attack from Hajin. Not just against Bahrah but also against Gharanji. The town beyond Bahrah, sitting around 5km (3 miles) to the north-west. Again under the cover of bad weather.
The attack on Gharanji failed almost as soon as it was launched. However the attack on Bahrah was highly successful. The SDF were forced out of the town leaving ISIL free to loot and pillage it for two full days.
With the arrival of Shitat Tribal fighters the SDF were able to regain control over Bahrah on November 26th (26/11/18). By which time at least 90 of their fighters had been killed.
The loss of Bahrah, albeit temporarily, seemed to shock CJTFOIR into finally developing a strategy. Or at least letting the SDF implement the strategy it had drawn up.
On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF reclaimed their positions along the Syria/Iraq border. Allowing the PMF units to return to Iraq.
From those positions the SDF immediately opened a Humanitarian Corridor into Sousse. They also advanced towards Mount Baghouz. Arriving on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18) and liberating it on December 11th 2018 (11/12/18).
Having reasserted their control over the area to the north of the Hajin Pocket the SDF launched an attack on Shafah. On December 4th 2018 (4/12/18).
This meant that, what must now count as Phase Four of Operation: Round Up, was once again being conducted on three axis;
A north-western axis focused on Hajin.
A south-eastern axis focused on Baghouz.
A northern axis. This time focused on Shafah.
As with Phase Three of the operation the Baghouz and Shafah axis most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.
However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. To allow advances to be made on the Hajin axis.
With something resembling a strategy in place progress started to pick up apace.
The SDF had already breached the main defensive line around Hajin on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18).
By the following day (4/12/18) the SDF had managed to liberate the Hawamah neighbourhood, the hospital and the main market square. All to the north of the town. The SDF had also been able to liberate the adjacent Sunbul neighbourhood, reaching Khymat Hill.
On December 13th 2018 (13/12/18) the SDF raised their flag over the main Bazaar. Located in the centre of Hajin. This pushed ISIL into full collapse in the town.
On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) the SDF liberated Abu al-Khatir. This is technically a separate village which sits directly adjacent to Hajin's south-eastern tip.
The liberation of Abu al-Khatir marked the complete liberation of Hajin.
However, to the US' disappointment Baghdadi was nowhere to be found. If he had been present in the town he likely fled alongside many other ISIL fighters and their families to Sousse. On or around November 15th 2018 (15/11/18).
On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) US President Trump announced that US forces would be withdrawing from Syria. This certainly put a spanner in the works of the operation. With the SDF threatening, on December 20th 2018 (20/12/18) to abandon all operations and release some 3,200 foreign ISIL fighters they are currently holding prisoner.
Despite the chaos the SDF did continue their operations. Absorbing and repelling a heavy and sustained ISIL's counter-offensive on both the Sousse and Baghouz axis on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18).
On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18) the SDF entered Abu Hassan. The town which sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
By December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) the SDF had liberated Abu Hassan and moved on to Khasham. Which sits around 3km (2 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan.
These advances were carefully coordinated with the SDF's Shafah axis. On December 26th 2018 (26/12/18) the SDF broke through the main defensive ring around Shafah from the north and entered the town itself.
After just a day of fighting the SDF liberated Khasham on December 29th (29/12/18). They then advanced the roughly 2km (1.2 miles) to the south-east. Joining the battle for Shafah from the north-west.
This pitched the SDF into some extremely heavy fighting with ISIL. However by January 2nd 2019 (2/1/19) the SDF had reached the centre of Shafah. Having liberated half of the town.
It was during this period of fierce fighting that two British SOF's, of the Special Air Service (SAS), were wounded by ISIL rocket fire on January 5th 2019 (5/1/19). One seriously. I gather though that both are now well on the road to recovery.
On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the SDF advanced into Abu Bubadran. This sits directly adjacent to Shafah. By advancing into the town the SDF were able to open a third front in the battle for Shafah, for the south-east.
By January 13th 2019 (13/1/19) ISIL forces in Shafah and Abu Bubadran were in full collapse. Allowing the SDF to declare both Shafah and Abu Bubadran liberated on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19).
It's a poor moment for a break. However time dictates I must pick this up tomorrow.
21:15 on 13/2/19 (UK date).
Frustratingly this was the month where everything started to happen in Syria.
So since mid-January I have been working to catch up.
It turns out that within the Syria there are still five main areas. Reading from right-to-left;
Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.
Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.
Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria. It is these tribal forces that have been pushed to the fore in recent months.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
The SDF is currently supported by the US-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). With air power, Special Operations Forces (SOF's) and increasingly conventional ground forces.
The only area of Shangri-La which has so far not fallen under SDF control is an area known as the; "Hajin Pocket."
This is a roughly 35km (20 mile) long, 10km (6 mile) wide area stretching along the north bank of the Euphrates River. From the town of Hajin to Mount Baghouz, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
This Hajin Pocket has remained under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL).
Within this roughly 350kmsq (210 milesq) Hajin Pocket there are 12 main towns/villages. Reading from the north-west to the south-east;
Hajin, Abu Hassan, Al Kashmah, As Sha'fah, Al Bubadran, Al-Ulayat, As-Sousse/Susah, Al Marashidah, Al Shalja/Nazl al-Fira, as-Safafinah, Baghouz Fawqani and Baghouz Tahtani.
Amongst these 12 towns there sit a number of small villages and hamlets. In the space between them ISIL have built up layers of defences.
These defences are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines.
On May 1st 2018 (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the Hajin Pocket itself. The objective was to isolate it from the Syria/Iraq border and to isolate the towns within it from each other.
This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th 2018 (4/5/18). Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghouz Tahtani and Baghouz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th 2018 (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghouz Tahtani and surrounded Baghouz Fawqani.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghouz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.
On August 7th 2018 (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up.
As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.
Over the night of September 10th 2018 (10/9/18) into September 11th 2018 (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. It's objective was to liberate the towns within the Hajin Pocket.
This third phase of Operation Round Up was conducted on three axis;
The north-western axis focused on Hajin.
The south-western axis focused on Baghuz Fawqani.
The third axis was a northern one, focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.
The Hajin axis and the Sousse axis were most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.
However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. Although no-one mentioned that to ISIL.
The pressure being applied to ISIL on the Hajin and Sousse axis' allowed the SDF to advance on the Baghouz Fawqani axis. Where they made rapid progress.
On September 20th 2018 (20/9/18) the SDF completely liberated Baghouz Fawqani.
Directly to the north of Baghouz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.
So with Baghouz Fawqani liberated both that axis and the SDF's Sousse axis turned their attention to al-Shalja. This was liberated on September 25th 2018 (25/9/18).
This saw the SDF's south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis merge and effectively become one single axis.
Directly to the west of al-Shalja you have the town of as-Safafinah. To the west of as-Safafinah you have the town of al-Marashidah.
On September 28th (28/9/18) the SDF's now combined south-western axis began to advance out of al-Shalja. In an effort to liberate both Safafinah and Marashidah.
On October 2nd 2018 (2/10/18) the SDF entered Safafinah. On October 7th 2018 (7/10/18) the SDF entered Marashidah.
By October 10th 2018 (10/10/18) there were reports that the SDF had fully liberated Marashidah. Amid a sudden withdrawal of ISIL forces from the town.
Unfortunately October 10th 2018 (10/10/18) also brought the first major setback in the SDF's operation.
As it tends to do when September gives way to October the weather turned. Bringing with it heavy rainstorms and sandstorms.
This poor weather and loss of visibility severely hampered CJTFOIR's ability to provide the SDF with close air support. Allowing ISIL to deploy Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (S-VBIEDS), essentially truck bombs, in a large-scale, coordinated counter-offensive against the SDF. On all fronts.
The worst day of SDF losses in this five day ISIL counter-offensive came on October 12th 2018 (12/10/18).
The SDF were forced to withdraw entirely from both Marashidah and Safafinah. This allowed ISIL to cut the SDF's supply lines with al-Shalja and Baghouz Fawqani. Prompting fierce fighting in both towns.
On the same day ISIL were able to break through the SDF's lines at Sousse. This allowed them to make a break for the Syria/Iraq border. Where they were only stopped by the intervention of units of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) militias.
Alarmingly ISIL also broke through the SDF's lines at Hajin. This allowed them to reach al-Bahrah which sits around 5km (3 miles) north-west of Hajin.
There ISIL mounted an attack on the Bahrah camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP). Kidnapping and taking hostage some 700 civilians who had fled the group in the Hajin Pocket.
On October 15th 2018 (15/10/18) the weather shifted again. This allowed the SDF to quickly recover all the territory they had lost to ISIL in the previous five days.
On October 22nd 2018 (22/10/18) the SDF turned its attention to liberating Sousse. While cutting it off from Marashidah.
By the following day, October 23rd (23/10/18) the SDF were in control of almost 70% of Sousse. On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) the SDF had all but completely liberated Sousse. With just a small pocket of ISIL resistance holding out.
On October 25th 2018 (25/10/18) the bad weather set in again. This allowed ISIL to launch another large, coordinated and highly effective counter-offensive. Across all of the Hajin Pocket.
The worst day of SDF losses during this counter-offensive came on October 27th 2018 (27/10/18).
Having been unable to consolidate their control over Sousse the SDF were quickly forced out of the town. ISIL then concentrated their attacks on the SDF south of Sousse. The line dividing Marashidah from Safafinah.
ISIL focused their attacks on an element of the SDF line or "Echelon" made up of the Deir-ez-Zour Military Council (DEZ-MC). The local Arab tribal fighters. This DEZ-MC echelon was smashed apart with 78 of its 100 members being killed.
The destruction of the DEZ-MC echelon created a gap in the SDF line through which ISIL fighters flowed. Facing being outflanked by ISIL the SDF had no option other than to withdraw the entire line. Or risk seeing all of the fighters in the line being slaughtered.
This enforced retreat led to the SDF having to abandon all of its positions in the Hajin Pocket by October 28th 2018 (28/10/18). Wiping out all the gains made during the previous 47 days of battle.
Unfortunately the SDF weren't just forced from the positions they'd gained in Phase Three of Operation: Round Up. They were also forced from many of the positions they'd gained in Phases One and Two of the operation.
So the SDF were forced from the area to the south-east of Hajin. Positions which had isolated it from the neighbouring town of Abu Hassan.
The SDF also lost control of the positions they had gained along the Syria/Iraq border. Essentially a network of thirty fighting positions stretching up from Mount Baghouz to the Mallah Salt Pan.
On November 6th 2018 (6/11/18) the Iraqi PMF were forced to cross into Syria to take control of these positions. In order to prevent them falling under ISIL control.
It has been harder to assess the impact the defeat had on the SDF's control over the area to the north of the Hajin Pocket. That's because this area is largely unpopulated desert.
The SDF's control over it was through a network of small bases known as; "Control Points" and positions. Some of which can be as small as a platoon of between 16 and 44 troops dug in with a handful of vehicles.
During periods of poor visibility, such as during bad weather or at night, it is easy to sneak between these Control Points undetected. So throughout the period after the SDF took control of this area in August 2018 ISIL have always been able to conduct small attacks against it and beyond it.
However following the October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) defeat ISIL were able to mount large attacks in the around the ar-Rawdah Salt Pan. This sits around 25km (15 miles) north of the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field and around 90km (50 miles) north of the Hajin Pocket.
In response to the October 28th 2018 (28/10/18) defeat the SDF announced their intention to re-establish the Phases One and Two containment of the Hajin Pocket. Then suspend their operations until the Spring of 2019. In order all them time to re-group and for the weather to clear. So CJTFOIR could supply more reliable close air support.
CJTFOIR though had other ideas. At a meeting on November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) the French and US elements bullied the SDF into resuming operations immediately.
This move seemed primarily driven by a desire that Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump, the respective Presidents of France and the US not be embarrassed by having to accept even a small defeat on the day they gathered to mark the centenary of the end of World War One.
Following the announcement on November 11th 2018 (11/11/18) SDF operations resumed on November 14th 2018 (14/11/18). With nothing more sophisticated than an attempt to advance directly from Bahrah to Hajin.
At the time Hajin was considered to be ISIL's de facto capital. It was also believed to be the location of the group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
A suspicion which was only strengthened on November 16th 2018 (16/11/18) with reports that two of Baghdadi's sons had been killed in the town. Including his favoured second son Motaz al-Badri.
So great was CJTFOIR's desire to declare Hajin liberated and Baghdadi captured or killed this new phase of SDF operations seemed to be being conducted without anything resembling a strategy. Instead, in something of a blind tantrum, CJTFOIR just sent the SDF to bash away at the gates of Hajin. While CJTFOIR set about flattening the town with heavy air and artillery strikes.
This came at a great toll to the SDF fighters on the frontline. Particularly the poorly trained, recently conscripted Arab tribal fighters of the DEZ-MC. It also came at a great toll to the civilians trapped in Hajin and the civilians who would have to return and try and make a life in an utterly destroyed town.
It was also hugely ineffective. Not only were the SDF unable to make gains into Hajin they initially ended up losing further territory to ISIL.
On November 24th 2018 (24/11/18) ISIL launched an attack from Hajin. Not just against Bahrah but also against Gharanji. The town beyond Bahrah, sitting around 5km (3 miles) to the north-west. Again under the cover of bad weather.
The attack on Gharanji failed almost as soon as it was launched. However the attack on Bahrah was highly successful. The SDF were forced out of the town leaving ISIL free to loot and pillage it for two full days.
With the arrival of Shitat Tribal fighters the SDF were able to regain control over Bahrah on November 26th (26/11/18). By which time at least 90 of their fighters had been killed.
The loss of Bahrah, albeit temporarily, seemed to shock CJTFOIR into finally developing a strategy. Or at least letting the SDF implement the strategy it had drawn up.
On November 30th 2018 (30/11/18) the SDF reclaimed their positions along the Syria/Iraq border. Allowing the PMF units to return to Iraq.
From those positions the SDF immediately opened a Humanitarian Corridor into Sousse. They also advanced towards Mount Baghouz. Arriving on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18) and liberating it on December 11th 2018 (11/12/18).
Having reasserted their control over the area to the north of the Hajin Pocket the SDF launched an attack on Shafah. On December 4th 2018 (4/12/18).
This meant that, what must now count as Phase Four of Operation: Round Up, was once again being conducted on three axis;
A north-western axis focused on Hajin.
A south-eastern axis focused on Baghouz.
A northern axis. This time focused on Shafah.
As with Phase Three of the operation the Baghouz and Shafah axis most certainly battle fronts. Members of the SDF were killing and being killed amid heavy fighting on both.
However the primary objective on those axis was not to liberate territory. Instead it was to put pressure upon ISIL and divide their forces. To allow advances to be made on the Hajin axis.
With something resembling a strategy in place progress started to pick up apace.
The SDF had already breached the main defensive line around Hajin on December 3rd 2018 (3/12/18).
By the following day (4/12/18) the SDF had managed to liberate the Hawamah neighbourhood, the hospital and the main market square. All to the north of the town. The SDF had also been able to liberate the adjacent Sunbul neighbourhood, reaching Khymat Hill.
On December 13th 2018 (13/12/18) the SDF raised their flag over the main Bazaar. Located in the centre of Hajin. This pushed ISIL into full collapse in the town.
On December 18th 2018 (18/12/18) the SDF liberated Abu al-Khatir. This is technically a separate village which sits directly adjacent to Hajin's south-eastern tip.
The liberation of Abu al-Khatir marked the complete liberation of Hajin.
However, to the US' disappointment Baghdadi was nowhere to be found. If he had been present in the town he likely fled alongside many other ISIL fighters and their families to Sousse. On or around November 15th 2018 (15/11/18).
On December 19th 2018 (19/12/18) US President Trump announced that US forces would be withdrawing from Syria. This certainly put a spanner in the works of the operation. With the SDF threatening, on December 20th 2018 (20/12/18) to abandon all operations and release some 3,200 foreign ISIL fighters they are currently holding prisoner.
Despite the chaos the SDF did continue their operations. Absorbing and repelling a heavy and sustained ISIL's counter-offensive on both the Sousse and Baghouz axis on December 21st 2018 (21/12/18).
On December 24th 2018 (24/12/18) the SDF entered Abu Hassan. The town which sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
By December 28th 2018 (28/12/18) the SDF had liberated Abu Hassan and moved on to Khasham. Which sits around 3km (2 miles) south-east of Abu Hassan.
These advances were carefully coordinated with the SDF's Shafah axis. On December 26th 2018 (26/12/18) the SDF broke through the main defensive ring around Shafah from the north and entered the town itself.
After just a day of fighting the SDF liberated Khasham on December 29th (29/12/18). They then advanced the roughly 2km (1.2 miles) to the south-east. Joining the battle for Shafah from the north-west.
This pitched the SDF into some extremely heavy fighting with ISIL. However by January 2nd 2019 (2/1/19) the SDF had reached the centre of Shafah. Having liberated half of the town.
It was during this period of fierce fighting that two British SOF's, of the Special Air Service (SAS), were wounded by ISIL rocket fire on January 5th 2019 (5/1/19). One seriously. I gather though that both are now well on the road to recovery.
On January 10th 2019 (10/1/19) the SDF advanced into Abu Bubadran. This sits directly adjacent to Shafah. By advancing into the town the SDF were able to open a third front in the battle for Shafah, for the south-east.
By January 13th 2019 (13/1/19) ISIL forces in Shafah and Abu Bubadran were in full collapse. Allowing the SDF to declare both Shafah and Abu Bubadran liberated on January 15th 2019 (15/1/19).
It's a poor moment for a break. However time dictates I must pick this up tomorrow.
21:15 on 13/2/19 (UK date).
Monday, 4 February 2019
The Super *Yawn* 2019.
Yesterday (3/2/19) saw the 53rd Super Bowl. Held at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, US.
The Super Bowl is so much more than an American Football game. Some would argue that it barely even counts as an American Football game.
Instead the Super Bowl is a spectacle. A collective experience in which people gather together to all do the same thing at the same time. Eating, drinking and chatting while watching the game and its commercials.
As such it, along with the Oscars, forms an important part of America's cultural calender. An opportunity to have a national discussion about the political issues of the day.
When I talk about the political issues of the day I don't mean things like such-and-such amendment to such-and-such bill before Congress. Instead I mean the more general issues affecting society.
Things which are either to personal for governments and politicians to act on or things that are so obscure politicians and governments haven't yet noticed them.
The problem is that American Football, like America society seems to be frozen in time. At some point in late 2014.
In the summer of 2014 then President Barack Obama was desperate for a way to mobilise black voters. So they would go and vote for his Democrat Party at the November 2014 mid-term elections.
So the Democrats invented this Fake News story of a black man, Micheal Brown, being murdered by the racist police. While he had his hands up in surrender and was begging; "Don't Shoot!" This spawned the; "Black Lives Matter (BLM)" movement.
American Football players, who tend to be black fully endorsed this campaign. Most notably Colin Kaepernick.
However American Football fans, who tend to be white, quickly saw through the lies. So they opposed the campaign, calling for the likes of Kaepernick to be punished for breaking the sports rules banning political gestures.
This divide has plunged American Football, and to a lesser extent American society as a whole into a state of civil war. With neither side seeming prepared to give an inch.
So the main theme of the 2019 Super Bowl was the same as the main theme of the 2018 Super Bowl. And every Super Bowl since 2015. This civil war.
The game was played between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams.
The Patriots obviously represent American Patriots. As they seem to have done in every Super Bowl since 2015.
Although they claim to be from Los Angeles most people know that the Rams are really the Saint Louis Rams.
The St Louis Rams really started this civil war in American Football. In November 2014 five of their players took to the field making the Hands Up gesture. A protest in support of Micheal Brown. The antics of Kaepernick and others only came after this incident.
The Rams protest came despite it having already been established that Micheal Brown didn't have his hands up in surrender. Instead when he was shot Micheal Brown was using his hands to try and beat someone to death.
So while lying about coming from Los Angeles the St Louis Rams represented the Fake News which seems to have infected every aspect of American society post-2014.
This issue of Fake News was further highlighted by the arrest on Sunday (3/2/19) of the rapper 21 Savage.
Much of 21 Savage's work and story is about his life growing up in Atlanta, Georgia. Struggling against the racism and violence of the police.
None of this is true. 21 Savage is actually British and didn't move to the US until, at least, the age of 12. Despite claiming to have been a US citizen resident in Atlanta since, at least, the age of 8.
He is now set to be deported as an illegal immigrant. Not that we in Britain are in any rush to take him back.
Due to the war in Syria at any given point I am extremely busy. Recently I've been called away from that to deal with Brexit. Then I got laid up with a nasty case of the flu. So as I try to catch up I am currently insanely busy.
As a result I couldn't justify staying up until 05:00 to watch the Super Bowl. I certainly couldn't justify spending the next week chasing down Super Bowl commercials and blogging about them.
However I tend to stay up until about 02:00 on a Sunday night anyway. Catching up in TV shows I've missed. So I did catch some on the first parts of the game. Or more accurately British TV presenters talking about it during yet another commercial break.
From that I gather it was every bit as boring as you would expect from a spectacle that has been exactly the same for the past four years. Both teams adopted a defensive crouch. Determined not to be shifted from their entrenched positions.
At the end of the first quarter the score was 0-0. At the end of the second quarter it was 3-0. That's an exciting score for a soccer match. It's unheard of for an American Football match to be that low scoring.
Apparently the most talked about aspect of the game play was the Rams' 65-yard punt. The longest in Super Bowl history. A punt is an extremely boring defensive tactic. Akin to complimenting a soccer team's ability to protect the ball by the corner flag.
The match ended 13-3 to the Patriots. The lowest score in Super Bowl history.
The recording I was watching actually ended just as the presenter announced; "Now it's time for the Half-Time Show." Not actively boycotting the event I thought I may as well watch what is the main part of the spectacle.
This year's Half-Time show has been particularly mired in controversy.
It's claimed that organisers approached Rihanna to perform. However Rihanna refused citing solidarity with Kaepernick and his fellow clowns.
As one of Rihanna's longest serving stalkers I can assure you that is not true.
The real reason Rihanna refused is that she has given up her career as a singer to become an American spy. Specifically spying on Saudi Arabia through her relationship with Hassan Jamil.
When this first came to light in late 2017 Germany warned Rihanna how dangerous this career move was. By crashing a private jet in reference to the "Silver Star" episode of the US TV show; "The Unit."
In the episode a spy has become more trouble than their worth. So the shadowy US intelligence agency the spy works for decides to kill them off. By arranging for a private jet their own to crash. The heroic team from the Unit work really hard to save the spy. While team member Jonas is off dealing with domestic violence in his family.
This incident was recently referenced in the crash of a light aircraft carrying newly signed Cardiff City player Emilano Sala. On January 21st (21/1/19).
That was primarily about Brexit.
It raised the issue of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Which the UK will crash out of under a No Deal Brexit. The fact it was a US registered plane also brought up the issue of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). Which Britain would also crash out of under a No Deal Brexit.
The initial search for the plane involved both the British and French Coast Guard. Cooperation that would not be possible if the UK crashes out of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (FRONTEX) under a No Deal Brexit.
It also touched on the "Yellow Vest" mass protests which continue to engulf France. Sala had been signed from the French side Nantes. Who play in yellow shirts/vests.
The Sala crash only obliquely touched on Rihanna. By referencing the famous Egyptian player Mohammad Salah. However only in the sense that I was heavily involved in both Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour and Egypt's second revolution in 2013.
The Sala crash did though reference another episode of The Unit. The episode entitled; "Always Kiss Them Goodbye." This saw a Piper Malibu being used to prevent a VX Nerve Agent attack.
Britain continuing to falsely blame Russia for the Skripal Nerve Agent attack is both an example of Fake News and a source of tension between Britain and the rest of the World.
Watching them close together the; "Silver Star" and "Always Kiss Them Goodbye" episodes of The Unit seem remarkably similar.
They both centre around the Bob and Mack characters trying to deal with a plane with an unconscious pilot. While the Jonas character deals with some family drama.
You'd almost think the "Always Kiss Them Goodbye" episode was in production around the time the Writers Guild of America went on strike.
So while Emilano Sala's plane disappeared Rihanna's ex-partner Chris Brown suddenly found himself arrested. In France.
The Emilano Sala story has since developed with the family crowdfunding to launch a private search for the still missing aircraft. About two hours before the start of the Super Bowl that private search announced that it had found the missing aircraft.
I don't think that announcement was made in reference to the Super Bowl. Having narrowed the search area down to about 4 nautical miles the search only began that morning. So I think they just found the plane as quickly as they could.
This didn't stop the US responding. With a private jet crashing into a home in Los Angeles during a Super Bowl party.
That highlighted Los Angeles and the Rams status as Fake News.
It also referenced the "Always Kiss Them Goodbye" episode of The Unit. Specifically how it had been used in the Sala crash as a reference to Britain blaming Russia for the Skripal Nerve Agent attack.
The Skripal case being a prime example of anti-Russian Fake News. Something which seems to have replaced Black Lives Matter as the Democrats only campaign tool.
By extension the crash also referenced the "Silver Star" episode of The Unit. Specifically the way it had been used to reference Rihanna's new role as a spy.
That's the real reason why Rihanna turned down the Half-Time Show. She knows she lacks the talent to lead a national discussion about the political issues of the day.
Claims that Rihanna was boycotting out of support for Kaepernick is simply the Fake News cover story. If you believe that life is going to be rough on you.
In the end the job of the Half-Time Show went to the band Maroon 5. Backed by local Atlanta rapper Big Boi and Travis Scott.
Due to the Fake News of Rihanna boycotting they, particularly Maroon 5 also came under a lot of pressure to boycott in support of Kaepernick. Petitions were circulated and the traditional pre and post performance press conferences had to be cancelled.
Maroon 5 are not a band I'm particularly familiar with. Theirs are the songs you hear on the radio and then instantly forgot. So if there was something significant about their choice of songs it would have been lost on me.
As far as I could tell then it was just Maroon 5, Travis Scott and Big Boi blandly performing some bland songs. On an "M" shaped stage which seemed to scream; "Meh!"
The performance though did heavily invoke the Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics. As a way to take jabs at the people who had called for a boycott.
The Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics famously featured the first Augmented Reality Olympic Rings.
Travis Scott appeared to arrive on stage in a giant fireball/meteor crashing through the arena. Coming after an animated sequence it was hard to tell if this was Augmented Reality. Or a stage prop dangling on a wire.
The only real way to tell would be if you were actually in the stadium. Promoting discussion about American Football's "Blackout Rule." This prevents games being broadcast on TV in a teams home city if the stadium tickets for the game have not sold out.
Later in the performance audience members were given Chinese Lanterns which eventually flew up into the night sky. Again it was hard to tell whether this was Augmented Reality or real, physical objects.
You realised that they were real, physical objects when you noticed they were not Chinese Lanterns at all. Instead they were mini-drones, presumably controlled by wi-fi. Eventually they formed up to spell the phrase; "One Love."
The Opening Ceremony of 2018 Winter Olympics claimed it would feature as sequence involving 5G wireless controlled mini-drones. However it had to be cancelled at the last minute as the ceremony came under cyberattack.
The source of this Cyberattack was the; "Olympic Destroyer" virus. Crowdstrike - the sole source for claims of Russian hacking of the 2016 election - immediately identified the Olympic Destroyer as Russian. Causing much amusement to the South Koreans who had created it as a talking point about Crowdstrike's competence.
The Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics dedicated an entire sequence to the hateful and anti-Semitic ideology of the Nation of Islam (NoI). This has been central to the Black Lives Matter movement and has recently been adopted by the Women's March movement.
Those people would have particularly enraged by the game's Most Valuable Player (MVP) award going to Julian Edelman. A Jew.
Of course the topics raised by the 2018 Winter Olympics were largely censored in America. By the February 14th (14/2/18) Parkland shooting. Which was heavily influenced by the "In Loco Parentis" episode of The Unit.
It went on trigger the March For Our Lives movement. Just as the Black Lives Matter and Women's March movement were starting to see their credibility wane.
Maroon 5 did not answer the petition calling on them to boycott. However they did partially answer the petition from people for the song; "Sweet Victory" from the cartoon "Spongebob Squarepants" to be included. Following the cartoon's creator's recent death.
The performance did feature the Sweet Victory sequence from the cartoon. The animated sequence that preceded Travis Scott's arrival.
That sequence featured a drumline. A drumline that then came to life of stage. Maroon 5 then performed the song; "Girls Like You." With a traditionally black Gospel choir taking the part of Cardi B. Who had boycotted in support of Kaepernick.
At last year's Half-Time Show Justin Timberlake was accused of that highest of liberal thought crimes - Cultural Appropriation. For using both a drumline and a Gospel choir.
The Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics took great pleasure in mocking the claim that African Americans have a cultural monopoly on the concept of drumming.
Finally Adam Levine, the lead singer of Maroon 5 took his shirt off while performing; "Moves Like Jagger." Exposing his male nipples.
This set everyone up for the infamous 2004 "Nipplegate."
During that Half-Time Show a "wardrobe malfunction" caused Justin Timberlake to momentarily expose one of Janet Jackson's female nipples. In clear violation of US broadcaster regulators extremely silly; "No Nipples" rule.
In the run up to last year's Super Bowl people compared the way that Justin Timberlake's career only rose following Nipplegate. While Janet Jackson's nosedived.
A phenomenon that in the eyes of liberal, virtue signalling America can only be explained as racism and sexism.
Right on cue that argument has been reignited this year.
I, and seemingly every other viewer, found both the game and the Half-Time Show to be extremely dull. However that was very much fitting with the main motif of the discussion.
Someone who is British, not America looking at America under this torrent of Fake News and going;
"Ha Ha! America's Dying."
20:20 on 4/2/19 (UK date).
The Super Bowl is so much more than an American Football game. Some would argue that it barely even counts as an American Football game.
Instead the Super Bowl is a spectacle. A collective experience in which people gather together to all do the same thing at the same time. Eating, drinking and chatting while watching the game and its commercials.
As such it, along with the Oscars, forms an important part of America's cultural calender. An opportunity to have a national discussion about the political issues of the day.
When I talk about the political issues of the day I don't mean things like such-and-such amendment to such-and-such bill before Congress. Instead I mean the more general issues affecting society.
Things which are either to personal for governments and politicians to act on or things that are so obscure politicians and governments haven't yet noticed them.
The problem is that American Football, like America society seems to be frozen in time. At some point in late 2014.
In the summer of 2014 then President Barack Obama was desperate for a way to mobilise black voters. So they would go and vote for his Democrat Party at the November 2014 mid-term elections.
So the Democrats invented this Fake News story of a black man, Micheal Brown, being murdered by the racist police. While he had his hands up in surrender and was begging; "Don't Shoot!" This spawned the; "Black Lives Matter (BLM)" movement.
American Football players, who tend to be black fully endorsed this campaign. Most notably Colin Kaepernick.
However American Football fans, who tend to be white, quickly saw through the lies. So they opposed the campaign, calling for the likes of Kaepernick to be punished for breaking the sports rules banning political gestures.
This divide has plunged American Football, and to a lesser extent American society as a whole into a state of civil war. With neither side seeming prepared to give an inch.
So the main theme of the 2019 Super Bowl was the same as the main theme of the 2018 Super Bowl. And every Super Bowl since 2015. This civil war.
The game was played between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams.
The Patriots obviously represent American Patriots. As they seem to have done in every Super Bowl since 2015.
Although they claim to be from Los Angeles most people know that the Rams are really the Saint Louis Rams.
The St Louis Rams really started this civil war in American Football. In November 2014 five of their players took to the field making the Hands Up gesture. A protest in support of Micheal Brown. The antics of Kaepernick and others only came after this incident.
The Rams protest came despite it having already been established that Micheal Brown didn't have his hands up in surrender. Instead when he was shot Micheal Brown was using his hands to try and beat someone to death.
So while lying about coming from Los Angeles the St Louis Rams represented the Fake News which seems to have infected every aspect of American society post-2014.
This issue of Fake News was further highlighted by the arrest on Sunday (3/2/19) of the rapper 21 Savage.
Much of 21 Savage's work and story is about his life growing up in Atlanta, Georgia. Struggling against the racism and violence of the police.
None of this is true. 21 Savage is actually British and didn't move to the US until, at least, the age of 12. Despite claiming to have been a US citizen resident in Atlanta since, at least, the age of 8.
He is now set to be deported as an illegal immigrant. Not that we in Britain are in any rush to take him back.
Due to the war in Syria at any given point I am extremely busy. Recently I've been called away from that to deal with Brexit. Then I got laid up with a nasty case of the flu. So as I try to catch up I am currently insanely busy.
As a result I couldn't justify staying up until 05:00 to watch the Super Bowl. I certainly couldn't justify spending the next week chasing down Super Bowl commercials and blogging about them.
However I tend to stay up until about 02:00 on a Sunday night anyway. Catching up in TV shows I've missed. So I did catch some on the first parts of the game. Or more accurately British TV presenters talking about it during yet another commercial break.
From that I gather it was every bit as boring as you would expect from a spectacle that has been exactly the same for the past four years. Both teams adopted a defensive crouch. Determined not to be shifted from their entrenched positions.
At the end of the first quarter the score was 0-0. At the end of the second quarter it was 3-0. That's an exciting score for a soccer match. It's unheard of for an American Football match to be that low scoring.
Apparently the most talked about aspect of the game play was the Rams' 65-yard punt. The longest in Super Bowl history. A punt is an extremely boring defensive tactic. Akin to complimenting a soccer team's ability to protect the ball by the corner flag.
The match ended 13-3 to the Patriots. The lowest score in Super Bowl history.
The recording I was watching actually ended just as the presenter announced; "Now it's time for the Half-Time Show." Not actively boycotting the event I thought I may as well watch what is the main part of the spectacle.
This year's Half-Time show has been particularly mired in controversy.
It's claimed that organisers approached Rihanna to perform. However Rihanna refused citing solidarity with Kaepernick and his fellow clowns.
As one of Rihanna's longest serving stalkers I can assure you that is not true.
The real reason Rihanna refused is that she has given up her career as a singer to become an American spy. Specifically spying on Saudi Arabia through her relationship with Hassan Jamil.
When this first came to light in late 2017 Germany warned Rihanna how dangerous this career move was. By crashing a private jet in reference to the "Silver Star" episode of the US TV show; "The Unit."
In the episode a spy has become more trouble than their worth. So the shadowy US intelligence agency the spy works for decides to kill them off. By arranging for a private jet their own to crash. The heroic team from the Unit work really hard to save the spy. While team member Jonas is off dealing with domestic violence in his family.
This incident was recently referenced in the crash of a light aircraft carrying newly signed Cardiff City player Emilano Sala. On January 21st (21/1/19).
That was primarily about Brexit.
It raised the issue of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Which the UK will crash out of under a No Deal Brexit. The fact it was a US registered plane also brought up the issue of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). Which Britain would also crash out of under a No Deal Brexit.
The initial search for the plane involved both the British and French Coast Guard. Cooperation that would not be possible if the UK crashes out of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (FRONTEX) under a No Deal Brexit.
It also touched on the "Yellow Vest" mass protests which continue to engulf France. Sala had been signed from the French side Nantes. Who play in yellow shirts/vests.
The Sala crash only obliquely touched on Rihanna. By referencing the famous Egyptian player Mohammad Salah. However only in the sense that I was heavily involved in both Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour and Egypt's second revolution in 2013.
The Sala crash did though reference another episode of The Unit. The episode entitled; "Always Kiss Them Goodbye." This saw a Piper Malibu being used to prevent a VX Nerve Agent attack.
Britain continuing to falsely blame Russia for the Skripal Nerve Agent attack is both an example of Fake News and a source of tension between Britain and the rest of the World.
Watching them close together the; "Silver Star" and "Always Kiss Them Goodbye" episodes of The Unit seem remarkably similar.
They both centre around the Bob and Mack characters trying to deal with a plane with an unconscious pilot. While the Jonas character deals with some family drama.
You'd almost think the "Always Kiss Them Goodbye" episode was in production around the time the Writers Guild of America went on strike.
So while Emilano Sala's plane disappeared Rihanna's ex-partner Chris Brown suddenly found himself arrested. In France.
The Emilano Sala story has since developed with the family crowdfunding to launch a private search for the still missing aircraft. About two hours before the start of the Super Bowl that private search announced that it had found the missing aircraft.
I don't think that announcement was made in reference to the Super Bowl. Having narrowed the search area down to about 4 nautical miles the search only began that morning. So I think they just found the plane as quickly as they could.
This didn't stop the US responding. With a private jet crashing into a home in Los Angeles during a Super Bowl party.
That highlighted Los Angeles and the Rams status as Fake News.
It also referenced the "Always Kiss Them Goodbye" episode of The Unit. Specifically how it had been used in the Sala crash as a reference to Britain blaming Russia for the Skripal Nerve Agent attack.
The Skripal case being a prime example of anti-Russian Fake News. Something which seems to have replaced Black Lives Matter as the Democrats only campaign tool.
By extension the crash also referenced the "Silver Star" episode of The Unit. Specifically the way it had been used to reference Rihanna's new role as a spy.
That's the real reason why Rihanna turned down the Half-Time Show. She knows she lacks the talent to lead a national discussion about the political issues of the day.
Claims that Rihanna was boycotting out of support for Kaepernick is simply the Fake News cover story. If you believe that life is going to be rough on you.
In the end the job of the Half-Time Show went to the band Maroon 5. Backed by local Atlanta rapper Big Boi and Travis Scott.
Due to the Fake News of Rihanna boycotting they, particularly Maroon 5 also came under a lot of pressure to boycott in support of Kaepernick. Petitions were circulated and the traditional pre and post performance press conferences had to be cancelled.
Maroon 5 are not a band I'm particularly familiar with. Theirs are the songs you hear on the radio and then instantly forgot. So if there was something significant about their choice of songs it would have been lost on me.
As far as I could tell then it was just Maroon 5, Travis Scott and Big Boi blandly performing some bland songs. On an "M" shaped stage which seemed to scream; "Meh!"
The performance though did heavily invoke the Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics. As a way to take jabs at the people who had called for a boycott.
The Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics famously featured the first Augmented Reality Olympic Rings.
Travis Scott appeared to arrive on stage in a giant fireball/meteor crashing through the arena. Coming after an animated sequence it was hard to tell if this was Augmented Reality. Or a stage prop dangling on a wire.
The only real way to tell would be if you were actually in the stadium. Promoting discussion about American Football's "Blackout Rule." This prevents games being broadcast on TV in a teams home city if the stadium tickets for the game have not sold out.
Later in the performance audience members were given Chinese Lanterns which eventually flew up into the night sky. Again it was hard to tell whether this was Augmented Reality or real, physical objects.
You realised that they were real, physical objects when you noticed they were not Chinese Lanterns at all. Instead they were mini-drones, presumably controlled by wi-fi. Eventually they formed up to spell the phrase; "One Love."
The Opening Ceremony of 2018 Winter Olympics claimed it would feature as sequence involving 5G wireless controlled mini-drones. However it had to be cancelled at the last minute as the ceremony came under cyberattack.
The source of this Cyberattack was the; "Olympic Destroyer" virus. Crowdstrike - the sole source for claims of Russian hacking of the 2016 election - immediately identified the Olympic Destroyer as Russian. Causing much amusement to the South Koreans who had created it as a talking point about Crowdstrike's competence.
The Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics dedicated an entire sequence to the hateful and anti-Semitic ideology of the Nation of Islam (NoI). This has been central to the Black Lives Matter movement and has recently been adopted by the Women's March movement.
Those people would have particularly enraged by the game's Most Valuable Player (MVP) award going to Julian Edelman. A Jew.
Of course the topics raised by the 2018 Winter Olympics were largely censored in America. By the February 14th (14/2/18) Parkland shooting. Which was heavily influenced by the "In Loco Parentis" episode of The Unit.
It went on trigger the March For Our Lives movement. Just as the Black Lives Matter and Women's March movement were starting to see their credibility wane.
Maroon 5 did not answer the petition calling on them to boycott. However they did partially answer the petition from people for the song; "Sweet Victory" from the cartoon "Spongebob Squarepants" to be included. Following the cartoon's creator's recent death.
The performance did feature the Sweet Victory sequence from the cartoon. The animated sequence that preceded Travis Scott's arrival.
That sequence featured a drumline. A drumline that then came to life of stage. Maroon 5 then performed the song; "Girls Like You." With a traditionally black Gospel choir taking the part of Cardi B. Who had boycotted in support of Kaepernick.
At last year's Half-Time Show Justin Timberlake was accused of that highest of liberal thought crimes - Cultural Appropriation. For using both a drumline and a Gospel choir.
The Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics took great pleasure in mocking the claim that African Americans have a cultural monopoly on the concept of drumming.
Finally Adam Levine, the lead singer of Maroon 5 took his shirt off while performing; "Moves Like Jagger." Exposing his male nipples.
This set everyone up for the infamous 2004 "Nipplegate."
During that Half-Time Show a "wardrobe malfunction" caused Justin Timberlake to momentarily expose one of Janet Jackson's female nipples. In clear violation of US broadcaster regulators extremely silly; "No Nipples" rule.
In the run up to last year's Super Bowl people compared the way that Justin Timberlake's career only rose following Nipplegate. While Janet Jackson's nosedived.
A phenomenon that in the eyes of liberal, virtue signalling America can only be explained as racism and sexism.
Right on cue that argument has been reignited this year.
I, and seemingly every other viewer, found both the game and the Half-Time Show to be extremely dull. However that was very much fitting with the main motif of the discussion.
Someone who is British, not America looking at America under this torrent of Fake News and going;
"Ha Ha! America's Dying."
20:20 on 4/2/19 (UK date).
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