The 2018 Eurovision Song Contest: Grand Finale

Last night (12/5/18) saw the Grand Final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest.

The annual Song Contest is the big gala event of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU).

Founded in 1950 the EBU is a network of 72 television and radio broadcasters from 56 nations. Its mission is to promote unity throughout its members and to further technological advancement in the field of Information Communications Technology.

The EBU held the first Song Contest in 1956. This was the year before the first satellite, Sputnik-1 was launched into space. It was twelve years before the invention of the microprocessor. So at that first Song Contest the ability to broadcast live images and sound across an entire continent was an extremely radical idea.

This mission of technological advancement has continued throughout the EBU's history. In many ways the Song Contest is just the thing we point the camera at to give us an excuse for all this behind-the-scenes boundary pushing.

At this year’s Song Contest two particular technological advances in the field of broadcasting have been particularly to the fore; Internet Streaming and Augmented Reality (AR).

Internet Streaming:

Within TV circles all anybody seems to talk about these days is how the old broadcast model is dead. This involves a broadcast network airing a set number of shows on a set number of channels at a set time. Either using traditional aerials, digital aerials or satellites.

Instead now rather than watching "TV shows" people now consume "media content" which can be TV shows, movies, songs, music videos or video blogs (Vlogs). They access this content through broadband Internet choosing what they want to watch and when they want to watch it.

The use of Internet Streaming has become so widespread that even I, as almost the ideological successor to the Unabomber, have adopted it. At the start of 2018 I finally activated the "Roku" powered "NowTV" Internet Steaming service I was given as a gift the previous year.

With the gala event of the EBU really being the sort of place to discuss this sort of thing I did really want to be included by Internet Streaming part of this year's Song Contest. Unfortunately my preparations for this year's Song Contest and in particular the First Semi-Final proved to be somewhat disordered.

At the risk of boring you all with my hypochondria I've spent this week experiencing one of those not quite colds which just slows everything down and sucks all the joy out of life. Normally it takes me 2-3 dedicated days to background all the Song Contest acts and the issues they raise. This year it took me six. I only finished when the countdown clock on the Eurovision.tv website had less than 22 hours on it.

Then of course there is US President Trump's decision to announce the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement one hour before the First Semi-Final. Reacting to that in the hour before Israel's Song Contest performance doesn't leave much time for anything else. 

The main reason though was far more selfish.

For me and particularly my father the main attraction of the NowTV Internet Streaming service is that it allows you to buy access to Sky Sports on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. This means English Premier League (EPL) football.

Today (13/5/18) is the final day of the EPL season. Over the past week Sky Sports have been showing a game almost every evening. This prompted my father to buy a week's pass to watch them all. Including the games which clashed with the Song Contest semi-finals.

Tuesday (8/5/18) evening's match was a vital relegation decider between Swansea and Southampton. So I couldn't quite find the energy to fight to watch the First Semi-Final instead. Particularly as I wanted to stream it on the Internet.

Immediately after the live broadcast had ended I tried to stream on the BBC's - the UK's EBU associate broadcaster - streaming platform "iPlayer." However due to some reason to do with either broadcast rights, commercial sponsorship or just laziness it was not available.

The big problem with the Roku powered NowTV service is that it does not include an Internet browser. Instead it uses applications or "Apps" which only allow you to access specific parts of the Internet.

So to stream the First Semi-Final on the Eurovision.tv I first needed a Eurovision App on the Roku App market place. Such a thing does not exist.

This type of problem is exactly why the concept of "Net Neutrality" is so important.

If Net Neutrality is scrapped then Internet Service Providers (ISP) such as Roku will start charging content providers such as Eurovision to have their Apps included in their market places. If the content providers don't pay up no-one will be able to see their content. 

Once they've paid to access the market place ISP's will start demanding more money from content providers to make sure their content is delivered at reasonable streaming speeds.

This commercialisation of the Internet will act as a form of censorship and destroy the creativity of the Internet where currently someone can have a good idea and instantly share it with billions of people.

This inclusion of an App marketplace is perhaps less of an issue for Eurovision than for an organisation like the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

The IOC is currently rushing to embrace Internet Streaming in order to bypass traditional broadcasters and boost its revenues. By contrast the Song Contest is produced by a network of traditional broadcasters. So if you cut out the broadcasters there simply won't be a Song Contest.

The Roku marketplace does though have a YouTube App. So I used this to watch eventually both semi-finals on Eurovision's YouTube channel. Last night I also managed to live stream the winner's press conference in the same way. Both without any particular problem

I say any particular problem. There is one very common problem with Internet Streaming familiar to all those who've used it. When your Internet connection fails or the device runs out of memory due to the sheer volume of data the picture freezes, breaks-up and often drops out completely.

This isn't a huge problem when you're watching something pre-recorded. Normally the picture returns to the exact point where it dropped out. However when you're watching something live this is the most infuriating thing in the world.

For example last Saturday (5/5/18) I was watching the Stoke v Crystal Palace match. Stoke's Shaqiri scored one of his typically spectacular free kicks to give Stoke a 1-0 lead. I think you can guess the exact moment my Wi-Fi dropped out.

Sweden's entry "Dance You Off" by Benjamin Ingrosso made an interesting contribution to this discussion. The video in support of the song is a mixture of what appears to be early-1990's era Low Definition (LD) footage seeming to be shot on VHS tape and High Definition (HD) digital footage.

If you work in the television business or want to get into the television business one of the first questions you'd be asking the Swedish delegation backstage is whether the video was really shot on VHS tape. If not what type of digital filter were they using to get that LD effect.

Throughout the video the picture constantly freezes, breaks up and drops out completely. As if your Internet connection was failing or your device was running out of memory.

Although it's probably better suited to the Para-Olympics than Eurovision I do have one other, rather specific complaint about Internet Streaming.

One of the reasons it’s hard to get my father interested in the Eurovision Song Contest is that he is hearing impaired. This means he's really just not that into music and when he watches TV he is totally reliant on subtitles/closed captions.

The provision of subtitling on Internet Streaming is utterly appalling. As a public service broadcaster BBC's iPlayer is okay when it comes to programs that have been broadcast on its traditional channels. However it is totally impossible to get subtitles on any live stream.

On the other channels and content providers subtitling is utterly nonexistent. Both on live streams and pre-recorded content. In a detail that may be worth remembering the only English language Sky show I've found with subtitles is; "Big Little Lies" which my father wouldn't want to watch anyway.

So I find it extremely frustrating that we have this exciting new technology from which my father and other hearing impaired people are just totally excluded.

Particularly as how at previous Song Contests we've been discussing how advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other forms of automation have dramatically brought down the cost of subtitling.  

YouTube seems able to allow users to do it automatically for free.

Augmented Reality (AR):

Augmented Reality (AR) is such a new technology that it is not strictly defined. However it generally refers to any live viewing that is augmented by computer generated sensory stimuli. Be that sight. sound, touch, smell. Most commonly though it involves visual images.

This type of technology is far from new for particularly military pilots. They have long used so-called; "Head Up Displays (HUD)." These project information from their instruments and weapons systems onto the cockpit canopy or onto their visor. It allows them to monitor the aircraft's systems while still looking where they are going.

In 2013 the technology company Google brought this type of technology to the civilian market with their; "Google Glass." These are a pair of spectacles with clear lenses with a small computer attached. While wearing the glasses users see the world as they would normally. Only the computer projects digital information onto one of the lenses adding to, or augmenting, the user's view of the real world.

Another widely known, commercially available example of Augmented Reality is the smartphone game; "Pokemon Go." Although I think an expert in the area may argue this is strictly speaking an example of Mixed Reality (MR).

In Pokemon Go you use the mapping software on your smartphone to direct you to a specific GPS location. There you open up the camera function on your smartphone and characters from the computer game appear on screen. As if running around in the real world.

I suppose at a stretch the filters you use on Snapchat or the little "Like" bubbles that pop-up when you're watching a Facebook livestream could also be counted as examples of Augmented Reality.

It is this type of Augmented Reality that TV broadcasters are most interested in. After all when you are watching something on TV you are not watching real life. Instead you're using a screen to watch a copy of something which has happened sometimes a great distance away. Both in terms of space and time.

As such many of the competitors at this year's Song Contest incorporated elements of Augmented Reality into their live performances.

The clear winner here was Malta with their song; "Taboo" by Christabelle. Their live performance in the Second Semi-Final featured a 3D computer generated model of an anatomically correct, beating human heart floating in the air. This model was so detailed it could easily have passed from a Computer Aided Design (CAD) model or an example of extremely high-tech medical imagery.

For the most part though most of the example of Augmented Reality on display were quite poor. They were  2D images which often seemed hand drawn and then effectively just held up in front of the camera. They were closer to a Snapchat filter then a character in Pokemon Go.

Technically rather than being an example of Augmented Reality these were examples of Rotoscopotry. A technique of hand drawing graphics onto film frame-by-frame. Far from being cutting edge Rotoscopotry dates back to around 1915.

Norway's entry "Now That's How You Write a Song" by Alexander Rybak also made an interesting contribution to the discussion.

In both their Second Semi-Final and Grand Final performance Norway made extensive use of Augmented Reality including for the musical instruments the performers were using. This raised particular questions about the use of AR at the Song Contest.

Although they are allowed to consider the vague; "General Perception" at the Song Contest the expert panels are strictly speaking only allowed to judge the acts on their live performance. This is actually the rehearsal performance which takes place the day before the performance the public get to see. 

The problem with Augmented Reality is that you are viewing reality with just your eyes rather than through some sort of device/screen you can't see the digital component. So viewed live Norway's performance was extremely peculiar. It was essentially just Alexander Rybak randomly waving his arms about in thin air.

At the very end of the Grand Final performance Norway brought in an actual, real-life violin for Rybak to play. Making the point that the people in the arena couldn't see the computer generated violin he'd been playing all along.

The graphics used during Norway's performance were all very simple. Resembling a child's crayon drawings. Far from being due to a lack of technical ability this was a specific artistic statement.

The 2015 Eurovision Song Contest was controversially won by Sweden with the song; "Heroes" by Mans Zelmerlow. Their big contribution to the technical aspects of the contest was that during his performance Zelmerlow danced and interacted with figures resembling childlike drawings shown a massive LED display behind him.

This year Norway took the concept from Sweden's 2015 performance and used Augmented Reality to bring into three dimensions. If you are familar with the controversy surrounding Sweden's 2015 win you would know there are certain Eurovision participants who seem to need a lot of help writing songs.

The Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia also made an impressive contribution to both of these discussions with their entry; "Lost & Found" by Eye Cue. Even if they didn't make it through to the Grand Final.

During their Second Semi-Final performance Macedonia used Augmented Reality graphics to simulate the viewer's Internet connection dropping out. They used this as distraction for the singer Marija Ivanovska to do a quick costume change. Ripping off the top layer of her costume to reveal a second costume underneath.

This was intended to send viewers into a blind panic as they rush to work out what had happened while their Internet connection was re-setting. Rather like coming back into a football match to discover Stoke are suddenly 1-0 up.

During Cyprus' Second Semi-Final performance of "Fuego" by Eleni Foureira my Internet connection did actually drop out. Due to Macedonia's earlier performance when it returned I managed to convince myself that Cyprus had repeated the trick and Eleni Foureira had changed her costume.

Scrolling back though I discovered that no. It was merely 2AM and I was quite drunk.

Part two to follow.

13:10 on 13/5/18 (UK date).

 

The 2018 Eurovision Song Contest: So. Israel.

For the past four years I've been heavily involved in the war in Syria.

In February and March I had to take a detour from that to cover the 2018 Winter Olympics and Para-Olympics. I am only now just reaching the point where I have caught up on what I missed.

To me even it seems odd then that I would take another detour to cover the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest. I seem though vindicated in my decision. Things in Syria are being blown up specifically because of the Eurovision Song Contest.

This year's Song Contest is not yet halfway through. The First Semi-Final took place yesterday (8/5/18). There is still the Second Semi-Final to come on Thursday (10/5/18). Then the Grand Final on Saturday (12/5/18). Therefore I am limited in what I can say without spoiling it for everyone.

However yesterday (8/5/18) Israel conducted airstrikes just outside of the Syrian capital Damascus. Specifically because Israel was competing in that First Semi-Final. So at the very least I have to cover Israel's entry this year.

The Eurovision Song Contest is primarily about politics. Nations use it to raise what they consider to be the main issues of the day and score points in feuds they're having with other nations. The feuds between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Greece, Turkey and Cyprus. Albania and anybody who has this misfortune to live close to Albania are the stuff of Eurovision legend.

As such the core, golden rule of the Song Contest is that entries cannot be overtly political. This forces nations to get creative and prevents the whole thing turning into a just unwatchable screaming match.

Israel are one of the most skilled nations in this area. They use the Song Contest to gauge how their often controversial policies are viewed by the nations of Europe.

So for example if Israel are doing something unpopular such as a war they make a very strong entry to the Song Contest. The strength of the entry is then used to off-set the unpopularity of Israel's actions. Likewise if Israel does something popular like entering into peace talks they make a very weak entry into the Song Contest.

In recent years Anti-Semitism has been on the rise across Europe. This has taken all of the precision out of Israel's role within the Song Contest. Neither Israel's actions nor the strength of their entry matter. Israel never make it through to the Grand Final because, Jews.

By 2014 things had got so bad Israel threatened to withdraw from the competition unless if not the precision returned they were at least given something resembling a fair chance.

This year Israel has been extremely naughty. Or more accurately US President Trump has been extremely naughty on Israel's behalf.

In December 2017 President Trump announced that he was moving the US Embassy to Israel to Jerusalem.

This caused international outrage for the simple reason that Jerusalem is not in Israel.

Under UN Resolution 181 (1947)  Jerusalem has "Corpus Separatum/Separated Body" status. This meant that it was neither part of Israel nor part of Palestine. Instead it is supposed to be administered by the international community under the auspices of the UN.

President Trump's announcement was condemned by 14 of the 15 members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). However the condemnation was vetoed by the US. So the matter was taken to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) where the US' veto was overturned. This was only the 11th time the UNGA has overturned a UNSC veto.

President Trump though pressed ahead. The US Embassy to nowhere will open in Jerusalem on Monday May 14th (14/5/18).

To off-set this level of naughtiness Israel's entry into the 2018 Song Contest needs to be absolutely amazing.

With "TOY" by Netta Israel has certainly produced a very strong entry.

Netta is clearly a very talented musician and the song is very fun and catchy and has the sort of gimmick that the Song Contest loves. Dubbed the chicken song it even raises the discussion point that Hebrew is one of those languages that makes it sound like even the chickens are trying to start a fight.

One way that Israel tries to promote itself amongst western and European nations is by highlighting how liberal it is compared to its Muslim, Arab neighbours. Israel is infinitely more tolerant of women's rights and gay right's than its neighbours.

Through her physical appearance Netta resembles a US singer by the name of Beth Ditto who is very famously gay. So you are being invited to speculate on whether Netta is also gay and in the process being reminded of Israel's support for gay rights. A massive vote winner at Eurovision.

The song is really a woman singing to a man. She's not only demanding that he treats her with respect but making it clear that she thinks she is too good for him. That's not the sort of thing any woman would get away within ISIL controlled territory.

The twist is that being something of a larger lady Netta does not fit into the traditional stereotype of female beauty. This makes the point that in Israel women are so empowered they feel comfortable even when they should perhaps feel a little bit ashamed of themselves and eat less. Not to make them attractive to men but for the sake of their health.

As is their intention the joke about Israel going big a Eurovision this year writes itself.

Another recently popular song in this genre is; "Ex's & Oh's" by US singer Elle King. This is noteworthy because this year Muslim Azerbaijan's entry invokes the Christian Cross in a song called "X My Heart" which has seasoned Eurovision watchers going; "Oh. That's interesting."

Probably the most famous song in the genre though is; "All About That Bass" by US singer Meghan Trainor.

Israel's position on the Syrian conflict has long been that it does not want Iran to establish bases in Syria. Israel has become much more vocal this point recently. Just on Monday (7/5/18) they clearly declared they would assassinate the Syrian President if he allowed Iran to establish those bases.

The US's response to this has been painfully literal. They are maintaining the Bobby Sands base near al-Tanf in order to block an Iranian road route from Iraq to Damascus. The fact their continued presence at Bobby Sands is granting ISIL safe haven in the area does not seem to matter to the US one little bit.

As all the recent Israel airstrikes on Syrian air bases show the road route at Bobby Sands is irrelevant. Iran can just fly things into Syria.

What is worse is that by granting ISIL safe haven the US is prolonging the conflict. In doing so continuing to provide Iran with a legitimate reason to maintain a military presence within Syria.

Israel weren't finished there with their entry though.

Like all Israelis Netta had to do compulsory military service. She spent this time in an Israeli Navy band. Given the powerful and forceful nature of the entry this little detail leaves you speculating on whether Netta is still a serving member of the Israeli military.

Also as I've mention this year's Song Contest is being presented in part by Portuguese-American actress  Daniela Ruah. She is most famous for appearing in, to give it its full name; "Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS): Los Angeles."

Apparently I'm not the only one finding the fact that an American with apparently no previous experience as a live TV host is hosting the Eurovision Song Contest highly amusing.

Also Rihanna's fanbase is known as; "The Navy." Rihanna has a special place in the Eurovision Song Contest. Primarily as a symbol of former US President Barack Obama's utter incompetence.

In 2013 Obama dispatched Rihanna on her Diamonds World Tour which was packed with hidden political meaning and symbolism. The nations which compete in the Eurovision Song Contest every year were not overwhelmed by this. At all.

The thing is that Israel's 2016 Song Contest entry was; "I Feel Alive" by IMRI. This lampooned a campaign that the Israeli tourist board was running at the time. The big pitch of the campaign was that you could spend part of your holiday in Tel Aviv and part of it in Jerusalem.

The video for I Feel Alive made it clear that Israelis loved Tel Aviv but only Tel Aviv. It was a section of Jewish Israeli society using the Eurovision Song Contest to demand that President Trump leaves the US Embassy in Tel Aviv.

With the opening of the US Embassy in Jerusalem looming just two days after the Song Contest this is the sort of division that's likely to trigger some intense discussion within Israel. It is of course a nation of 8 millions Jews meaning that at any given point there's at least 64 million opinions.

US President Trump decided to ratchet up the tension on Israel during this divisive time. Yesterday (8/5/18) he announced the US was withdrawing from the Iran deal and reimposing sanctions.

Although there will always be many opinions I don't doubt that large sections of Israel society want the Iran deal scrapped. However I don't think a single one of them wanted it scrapped an hour before Israel's appearance in the Song Contest's First Semi-Final.

So Israel spent that First Semi-Final bombing Syria and ordering its citizens into air raid shelters in fear of a mythical Iranian retaliation which never existed nor appeared.

The objective of this was for Israel to behave so appallingly that no performer could save them being kicked out of the Song Contest. Killing off the discussion about Israel's entry and totally removing the possibility Israel be awarded the 2019 Song Contest.

Eurovision rallied though. Israel is going through to the Grand Final and the conversation continues. Although there is no way in hell they can win.

It almost makes up for Switzerland not getting through. But failures like that should be expected. The general atmosphere this year is one of introspection and self-examination over how they've managed to get it so wrong in recent years.

19:50 on 9/5/18 (UK date).

The 2018 Eurovision Song Contest.

Yesterday (6/5/18) the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest opened in Lisbon, Portugal with the traditional Opening Gala.

The first Semi-Final will be held tomorrow (8/5/18). The second Semi-Final will be held on Thursday (10/5/18). The Grand Final will take place on Saturday (12/5/18).

As far as I am concerned there was no 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. Due to serious and persistent rule breaking I conducted a soft boycott. I only watched the voting of the Grand Final and limited myself to providing minimal coverage after the event.

The embarrassing thing is that this approach seemed to improve proceedings. Normally I get far to excited far too early and end up ruining it for everyone.

So this year I am going to try and limit my coverage until after the Grand Final. I will though be watching both the Semi-Finals and the Grand Final. I'm just going to try and do it quietly.

One thing of note is that this year's contest will be hosted by Daniela Ruah. She is probably most famous for playing Agent Kensi Blye in the US TV Show; "NCIS: Los Angeles."

So in short this year's Eurovision Song Contest is going to be hosted by an American. An American who pretends to be spy on television.

It turns out though Daniela Ruah was born in Boston, Massachusetts to Russian-Ukrainian-Portuguese parents. Aged five the family returned to Portugal where Daniela Ruah made her acting debut aged 16 in "Jardins Proibidos" ("Forbidden Gardens").

In 2001 she moved to the UK to study at London Metropolitan University. It was only in 2007 she returned to the US taking on the role in NCIS: Los Angeles.

So Daniela Ruah can certainly claim some link with Europe and Portugal in particular.

I don't care though;

It's still an American presenting the Eurovision Song Contest.

19:30 on 7/5/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 4, Day 5.

A direct continuation of Thursday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/05/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-4_3.html

In that post I covered how through a number of factors the pressure has been lifted from ISIL around the Euphrates River. Both from the SDF to the north and from the Syrians to the south. This has allowed to regroup, reenergise and once again pose a threat.

On March 7th (7/3/18) ISIL fighters in the no-man's land around Bobby Sands started to shell Syrian positions at Ghabrah. This sits on the south bank of the Euphrates around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal/Al Bukamal.

In response the Syrians conducted airstrikes in the vicinity of Bobby Sands on March 14th (14/3/18). The US' response was to move Maghawir al-Thawra into position to protect ISIL from the Syrians. 

On March 19th (19/3/18) ISIL forces around Bobby Sands launched an attack against the Syrians at the T2 Air Base. This is located around 65km (40 miles) west of Abu Kamal and around 170km (100 miles) east of Palmyra. These attacks were coordinated with ISIL attacks on Syrian forces at Abu Kamal itself.

ISIL's attacks on the T2 Air Base continued into the following day (20/3/18). This prompted the Syrians to conduct airstrikes on ISIL positions close to the T2 Air Base.

On March 26th (26/3/18) CJTFOIR decided to conduct strikes against the Syrians in the vicinity of Khusham. This sits on the north bank of the Euphrates around 10km (6 miles) south-east of the Industrial Zone of Deir-ez-Zour City.

On March 28th (28/3/18) ISIL again attacked the Syrians at both Abu Kamal and the T2 Air Base. However they also expanded their attacks to include the T3 Air Base.

The T3 Air Base sits around 190km (115 miles) west of Abu Kamal and around 40km (25km) east of Palmyra. ISIL's ability to strike this far to the east seemed to be a sign of their growing strength.

In response to the strikes on Abu Kamal, T2 and T3 Air Bases the Syrians launched an operation against ISIL the following day (29/3/18). This focused on ISIL's desert hideouts around al-Faydah close to Mayadin. 

The town of Mayadin sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates around 80km (50 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal and around 50km (30 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

On April 4th (4/4/18) the Syrians expanded their anti-ISIL operation to include the areas around Subyakhan and Salihiyah. These sit around 55km (35 miles) and 35km (20 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal respectively.

On April 5th (5/4/18) ISIL attacked Olinayah. Sitting almost directly south of Palmyra this was further evidence of ISIL's growing strength and reach.

Over the weekend of April 7th (7/4/18) to April 9th (9/4/18) ISIL launched a large series of attacks against the Syrians. These targeted Mayadin and the Highway linking Deir-ez-Zour City and as-Suknah. They also targeted Qaryatayn

The targeting of Qaryatayn in particular was a significant show of strength and advance westward for ISIL. It sits around 100km (60 miles) south-west of Palmyra. It actually sits around 15km (10 miles) east of the East Qalamoun Mountains. At the time this was really considered part of the area of operations for the Battle of East Ghouta.

The attacks on Qaryatayn were more or less completely repelled by the Syrians by April 10th (10/4/18). However on April 14th (14/4/18) the UK, the US and France conducted strikes against Syria.

Those looming strikes emboldened ISIL. On April 13th (13/4/18) they struck even further to the east attacking the Syrian 16th Regiment Air Defence Base. This sits 120km (70 miles) south-east of Palmyra and only 90km (55 miles) north-west of the centre of Damascus itself.

This attack by ISIL so deep into Syria prompted the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) to respond. From within Iraq the PMF shelled ISIL at Tal Safouk in the vicinity of al-Tanf.

Amid all this the clashes between the Syrians and ISIL at Abu Kamal have been near continuous. At a particular peak on April 10th (10/4/18) ISIL were deploying armed drones against Syrian forces.

The overwhelming majority of the resurgent ISIL's attacks have been focused on the Syrians south of the Euphrates. However ISIL have also been conducting attacks against the SDF to the north of the Euphrates.

On April 3rd (3/4/18) ISIL launched coordinated attacks against the SDF at the towns of Shadaddi and Bahra. 

Only liberated from ISIL on February 22nd (22/2/18) Bahra sits on the northern bank of the Euphrates. Around 35km (20 miles) north-west of Abu Kamal.

The starting point of the SDF's Cizre Storm operation Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River. Around 95km (60 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City.

From their positions along the Syria/Iraq border around the Buwarah Salt Pan ISIL also launched attacks against the Azraq and Sayjan Oil Fields. Part of the larger Omar Oil Fields this sit around 35km (20 miles) and 20km (10 miles) south-east of the Khobar River respectively.

Both Azraq and Sayjan Oil Fields were overrun by ISIL. On April 4th (4/4/18) the SDF reclaimed Azraq Oil Field. However the battle to recover Sayjan Oil Field along with heavy fighting around Bahra continued until April 9th (9/4/18) when the SDF were forced to declare a special military zone to recover Sayjan Oil Field and finally break the ISIL offensive.

Despite the suspension of their anti-ISIL operations and renewed attacks the SDF's civilian administration were able to resume production at the Jabisah Oil Refinery on April 10th (10/4/18). This sits close to Jabisah Mountain around 10km (6 miles) north-east of Shadaddi.

In the immediate term the resumption of production at the Jabisah refinery is simply to provide fuel to the SDF and civilians living within Shangri-La. However if the SDF are able to start exporting fuel from Shangri-La it will be seen as a sign of a growing economic independence for the region. A possible first step to it illegally being annexed from Syrian territory.

These fears have been increased with the ease at which CJTFOIR allowed Turkey to illegally annex first Garvaghy Road and then Afrin Canton. Rather than linking the two areas up with Shangri-La ahead of a negotiation over regional autonomy with the Syrian government.

The concerns were increased further by statements made by US President Trump. At a campaign style rally on March 29th (29/3/18) President Trump said that the US would be pulling out of Syria very soon.

Western politicians of all stripes have a deserved reputation for saying things which are not true during campaigns. President Trump has got to be one of the worst offenders in this. He often gets carried away and says things which will make the crowd cheer without thinking about them. As such I don't put much stock in what he says during campaign style rallies.

However on April 17th (17/4/18) the US newspaper the Wall Street Journal added credence to the claim. It reported that the US was in negotiations to see troops from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) replace US troops in supporting the SDF.

When it comes to reporting on President Trump the US media have a deserved reputation for saying things which are not true. They will print any fiction as long as it excites their readers who share their hatred of Trump. So I don't put much stock in what they say either.

However the Wall Street Journal report forced the nations mentioned to respond. 

Saudi Arabia immediately stated that it was not in negotiations with the US but would be happy to send troops if asked. On April 18th (18/4/18) Egypt also confirmed that negotiations were not taking place but categorical ruled out sending troops. 

The UAE have largely remained silent but Turkey is claiming the UAE is offering to fund the SAC within Shangri-La. Through the Muslim Brotherhood Turkey and Qatar are currently engaged in a massive regional feud with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Amid these rising concerns the Syrians gave the SDF and primarily CJTFOIR a little nudge. They would no more tolerate Shangri-La being illegally annexed by Saudi Arabia and UAE than they will tolerate Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road being illegally annexed by Turkey. 

On April 29th (29/4/18) Syrian forces crossed the Euphrates at Deir-ez-Zour City. The Syrians promptly captured the villages of Junayah, Maishiyah, Jiyah and Hissan from the SDF.

Being a gesture rather than a legitimate attempt to gain territory the Syrian forces quickly withdrew. Allowing the SDF to reclaim the villages that evening.

17:15 on 4/5/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 4, Day 4.

A direct continuation of Wednesday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/05/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-4.html

On April 23rd (23/4/18) and April 24th (24/4/18) the Foreign Ministers of the Group of 7 (G7) met.

The G7 of course used to be the G8. However Russia was expelled from the group over its opposition to groups such as Al Qaeda and ISIL and its support for the Syrian government. Using the civil war the US started in Ukraine as an excuse.

Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland did attend this Summit. Not only that it was held in her home constituency of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Mayor of Toronto is John or Johnny Tory.

As the Summit was getting underway on April 23rd (23/4/18) there was a runover attack in Toronto. A man drove a van into pedestrians along Yonge Street killing 10 and wounding 16 around 15km (10 miles) from the G7 Summit venue.

The driver who was arrested at the scene has been identified as Alek Minassian. An ethnic Armenian.

Although I doubt many of you can find it on a map Armenia is something of an interesting country at the moment.

In one of his final acts at the end of his second five year term of office Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan changed his nation's political system from a Presidential system to a Parliamentary system in 2015. 

Sargsyan did so on the promise that he would not seek to extend his time in power by becoming Prime Minister under the Parliamentary system.

On April 17th (17/4/18) the Armenian Parliament elected Serzh Sargsyan Prime Minister. This triggered mass protests which forced Sargsyan to resign on April 23rd (23/4/18). 

Just on Tuesday (1/5/18) the Armenian Parliament failed to elect protest leader Nikol Pashinyan as Prime Minister. Despite there being no other candidates. Unless a Prime Minister is found by May 8th (1/5/18) Armenia's government will fall and fresh elections will have to be held.

The attack in Toronto also occurred the day before April 24th. This is widely recognised as Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day.

As the Ottoman Empire collapsed in 1915 the Turks conducted a genocide of around 1.5 million Armenians. This along with the associated ethnic cleansing is why today you still find more ethnic Armenians living outside of Armenia than within Armenia.

As we all seem to be rushing to create a new Ottoman Empire it seems worth remembering what the old Ottoman Empire was like.

Due to modern Turkey's continued refusal to acknowledge the 1915 Genocide it almost goes without saying Christian Armenia has a poor relationship with its Muslim neighbour. Christian Armenia also has a poor relationship with its other Muslim neighbour - Azerbaijan.

Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to be locked in the World's longest frozen conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (NKR). This dispute has its roots in the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917 and only intensified following the break up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990's.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Region conflict places Russia in a difficult position. It is closely allied with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. When the two nations fight it makes it hard for Russia to support both.

In April 2016 Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan goaded Azerbaijan into attacking Armenian forces in the NKR triggering a four day war. 

This bout of fighting came at a time of massive tension between Turkey and Russia. That tension was triggered by Turkey shooting down a Russian aircraft over Syrian in November 2015.  

As such Erdogan triggered fighting in the NKR to put pressure on Russia by placing it in a difficult position.

During Erdogan's recent offensive against the SDF Afrin Canton Turkish forces have been writing messages on the bombs and artillery shells they've been using. Many of these have claimed the Afrin operation is being done to help liberate the NKR from Armenia and return it to Azerbaijan.

That seems like an attempt to at the very least reduce Russian pressure on Turkey over the Afrin Canton operation by raising the spectre of renewed conflict in the NKR or taking Azerbaijan out of Russia's sphere of influence by turning it into a Turkish ally. Likely a part of the new Ottoman Empire.

If you follow Turkish politics in any level of detail you would know that Erdogan operates in a paranoid and delusional state. 

Although I doubt he believes it Erdogan frequently claims that any problems that befall Turkey or anyone who voices opposition to him are part of a vast conspiracy headed by exiled Turkish Cleric Fethulah Gulen.

According to Erdogan the SDF are the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and they are in league with ISIL as part of this vast FETO conspiracy against him. Apparently all the fighting and dying between the SDF and ISIL is just an elaborate ruse to help further the conspiracy.

Erdogan claims that also part of this vast conspiracy are an Armenian group called the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA). They were never more than a Cold War rumour and have certainly not been active since the late 1980's.

There has been some debate over whether Alek Minassian's attack in Toronto should be classed as a terrorist attack.

Prior to launching his attack Minassian made a series of social media posts declaring his actions to be the start of; "The Incel Rebellion."

Incel is a portmanteau of "Involuntarily Celibate." This is a loose Internet ideology amongst men who cannot get wives or girlfriends and are extremely angry about it. Minassian described himself as a 25 year old virgin.

The war in Syria began against the backdrop of popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. By dubbing this the; "Arab Spring" foreign powers including Erdogan's Turkey and the US under former President Obama saw this as an opportunity to grab power for themselves across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) Region.

One of the main drivers of popular displeasure in the secular MENA nations like Tunisia, Egypt and Syria is that they have very large, well educated youth populations. However they have terribly under performing economies. As a result they have very high levels of youth unemployment.

Arab states are patriarchal societies where women are considered the property of men. Therefore sex outside of marriage is strictly forbidden and marriage can only be entered into when you are rich enough to effectively buy a wife from her father.

As a result high youth unemployment means low rates of marriage and lots of extremely frustrated young men and women.

So in many ways Minassian was wrong. The Incel Rebellion began in Tunisia in 2010.

Some in  secular MENA nations have responded to this by demanding economic reforms to bring down unemployment. Others have demanded increased women's rights so a young couple in love could get married even if they can't really afford it. Like many young couples do in western nations.

Then you have the Islamists such as ISIL, the UTA and the Army of Islam. Their response to this involuntary celibacy is to kidnap women, rape them and sell them as sex slaves. Many of these groups offer as a recruiting tool the fact that they will provide women and sex lives for their members.

So the Toronto runover attack places Foreign Minister Freeland and Prime Minister Trudeau in a difficult position.

On the one hand they seem sworn to support Erdogan in every way they can by declaring his enemies to be terrorists.

On the other hand they seem sworn to support Erdogan in every way they can by protecting his genocidal virgins by portraying them as innocent victims standing up to tyranny.

At 16:55 on 3/5/18 (UK date) I'll pick this up later. 

Edited at around 18:30 on 3/5/18 (UK date).

Erdogan's operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton had an extremely detrimental effect of the SDF's operations against ISIL in Shangri-La. So much so that SDF's operations in Shangri-La had to be suspended on March 6th (6/3/18). They only resumed yesterday (2/5/18).

The suspension of the SDF's operation relieved the pressure on ISIL, allowed them to regroup and again pose a threat. Both against the SDF to the north of the Euphrates River and to the Syrians to the south of the Euphrates.

The Syrians operations against ISIL to the south of the Euphrates were also significantly disrupted by a series of events.

On February 10th (10/2/18) a drone belonging to Iranian forces in Syria crossed the Golan Heights into Israel from Syria. Israel responded by shooting down that drone.

This incident occurred the first full day after the Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics held in the Republic of Korea (RoK/South) on February 9th (9/2/18).

Following its liberation from Japanese Imperial rule in 1945 the Korean Peninsula was partitioned. This led to the creation of the RoK and the Democrat People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North) and the Korean war which technically continues to this day.

The Opening Ceremony dealt with this difficult period of Korean history by focusing on the human story of families torn apart by partition and war. It paid particular attention to the way in which the conflict had led to the RoK's traditional Animist religions being replaced by Christianity.

Korea's traditional Animist religions are similar to the Druze religion. This is primarily practiced by people living in Lebanon, Syria and Israel. 

Therefore the story of the Druze is very similar to the story of the Opening Ceremony. One day following the 1967 war people who'd lived all their lives as Syrian Druze woke up to discover they were Israeli Druze and were unable to visit their relatives who remained as Syrian Druze. The Army of Islam's attempted genocide of Syrian Druze is a story many of the backers of the war in Syria still refuse to tell.

The Opening Ceremony was attended by Kim Yo-jong. The sister of the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un. 

In February 2017 their brother Kim Jong-nam was killed at an airport in Malaysia. Supposedly using the Chemical Weapons agent VX. This seemed to be the start of the process which led to the April 2017 Chemical Weapons attack in Khan Sheikhoun. For which the Syrians were blamed.

The DPRK's nuclear weapons program has been an essential element of former US President Obama's "Pivot Towards the Pacific" policy. The economic element of that policy features Myanmar/Burma. Through the rise of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) Erdogan has been trying to force his way into that discussion.

As such the 2018 Winter Olympics were certainly something participants in the Syria conflict needed to keep an eye on. Having a drone shot down over the Golan Heights seems a rather effective way of doing that.

Unfortunately this occurred at a time when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was facing possible criminal indictment in numerous corruption cases. Weakened at home Netanyahu over reacted. Rather than simply shooting done the drone he ordered the Israel air force to attack the T4 Air Base from where it was launched.

The T4 Air Base sits in central Syria. Roughly 80km (50 miles) east of Homs City and around 55km (30 miles) west of Palmyra. It is one of the main bases for Iranian forces in Syria.

This attack rather backfired on Israel. In the conflicts between Israel and Iran and its proxies there is a well established pattern. One side attacks the other. Then the other side retaliates.

On this occasion Iran has opted not to retaliate. Instead it has taken the purely defensive measure of upgrading its air defences by deploying missiles systems - believed to be 9K330-Tor - to its bases in Syria.

This has sent Israel into a bit of a paranoid spiral. On the one hand they are expecting an Iranian retaliation but they are also watching their ability to respond to that retaliation diminish.

As a result Israel has started frantically conducting airstrikes to prevent these new anti-aircraft missiles being deployed in Syria. On April 8th (8/4/18) they again struck T4 Air Base although I think that owed more to events in East Ghouta the previous day. Just on Sunday (29/4/18) struck the Syrian 47th Brigade base just south of Hama City.

Immediately following claims of a Chemical Weapons attack in East Ghouta on April 7th (7/4/18) the UK, the US and France pledged to carry out strikes against the Syrians. Those strikes eventually took place on April 14th (14/4/18).

During that week groups supported by the US fuelled by the anti-Iranian rhetoric coming out of the US demanded that these strikes be used to help them purge the Syrians and Iranians from Deir-ez-Zour City. Leading these calls were the Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thawra which the US continues to protect at the Bobby Sands base.

In response to this massively increased threat of airstrikes Iran started moving its forces out of Syria and into Iraq where they would be safe. With the bulk of the Syrian forces engaged in operations in and around Damascus this allowed ISIL to regain its strength around the Euphrates River.

20:05 on 3/5/18 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 4, Day 3

A continuation of Monday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-4.html

In that post I covered Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton.

It almost goes without saying that Erdogan's attack on the SDF in Afrin Canton has negatively affected the SDF's fight against ISIL within Shangri-La.

On the most obvious level the attack on Afrin Canton has forced the SDF to transfer some 6,700 of its total force of around 75,000 from Shangri-La to Afrin Canton. Those 6,700 members of the SDF then cannot be used to fight ISIL in Shangri-La.

Operations in Shangri-La have also been hampered by the fact that Erdogan has made clear that his territorial ambitions do not end in Afrin Canton. Following victory there he wishes to attack the SDF in Shangri-La and annex that territory too.

Erdogan's immediate focus has been on the town of Manbij. This sits on the western bank of the Euphrates River around 40km (25 miles) south of Jarablus which is currently under Turkish occupation.

On March 12th (12/3/18) Turkey announced that it had reached an agreement with then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. This would see the SDF withdraw from Manbij and Turkish forces take control of the town.

However the following day (13/3/18) Rex Tillerson was fired as US Secretary of State. The status of Turkey's claimed deal over Manbij has been unresolved while Tillerson's replacement Mike Pompeo was waiting to be confirmed as the new US Secretary of State.

In this time Erdogan has been aggressively posturing towards not just Manbij but Shangri-La as a whole. For example on March 22nd (22/3/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) removed sections of the border wall at the town of Serekaniye/Tal Abyad.

Serekaniye/Tal Abyad sits on Syria's border with Turkey around 100km (60 miles) east of the Euphrates River. Well inside of Shangri-La. This removal of sections of the border wall was seen in Afrin Canton and is viewed as a precursor to Turkish military action.

As a result of these threats the SDF have had to redeploy its existing force within Shangri-La to both the area's northern border with Turkey and its western area boundary with Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road.

Alongside Turkish aggression the SDF within Shangri-La have also had to contend with problems entirely of America's making.

On February 8th (8/2/18) the US-led coalition - Combined Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) - conducted several hours of airstrikes against Syrian forces in the vicinity of Deir-ez-Zour City. This sits on the south bank of the Euphrates around 160km (95 miles) north-west of Syria's border with Iraq and around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River.

These airstrikes were just the first step in what these days would be increasingly called a; "Sharp Power" operation against Russia. The strikes were followed up by US spy networks within Russia spreading fake news claiming thousands of Russian troops had been killed in the strikes. The intention being to destabilise Russia just ahead of its March 18th (18/3/18) election.

US President Trump embarked on this fools errand to show that he was tough on Russia. Amid continuing conspiracy theories circulated by the US Democrat Party that Trump was somehow in collusion with Russia.

The effect of the strikes was to totally destroy the very fragile trust which has existed between the CJTFOIR backed SDF and the Syrians. It was this trust that had allowed the SDF to nearly defeat ISIL north of the Euphrates while the Syrians came near to defeating ISIL south of the Euphrates.

The destruction of that trust led to near daily clashes between the Syrians and the SDF for almost the next month. Although small scale these skirmishes distracted both the Syrians and the SDF from the fight against ISIL. In fact they only ended in mid-to-late March when ISIL became able to launch sustained attacks against the Syrians.

The other problem of America's creation is really a throw back to their former Democrat President Barack Obama.

Under instruction from Erdogan in late 2016 former President Obama set about trying to destroy the SDF from within. This involved establishing a rival command structure within the SDF - the Syrian Arab Council (SAC). The ranks of the SAC were then stuffed with Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) which the US rushed to train and arm.

Sadly this Obama policy continued under President Trump.

The problems with the SAC were on display for all to see during the early days of the SDF's Cizre Storm operation. Upon arriving at the Industrial Zone of Deir-ez-Zour the self-proclaimed "Syrian Elite Forces (SEF)" refused to advance any further. Instead they wanted CJTFOIR's support in rejoining their old allies ISIL in fighting the Syrians.

A particularly problematic group have been the Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa. These were trained by the US at the Bobby Sands base near al-Tanf. When al-Tanf was liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in June 2017 the US transferred Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa from Bobby Sands to Shangri-La.

On arrival in Shangri-La Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa immediately changed their name to The Eruption Movement/Harakat al-Qiyam (HAQ) and began launching attacks against the SDF. It is clear to all that despite claiming to be a Syrian Arab force Harakat al-Qiyam's first language is Turkish.

Since Turkey's attack on the SDF in Afrin Canton began Harakat al-Qyiam's attacks on the SDF in Shangri-La have increased dramatically.

On February 19th (19/2/18) the HAQ conducted an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack in Qamishli. Considered the de facto capital of Shangri-La Qamishli sits around 120km (70 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 360km (215 miles) east of the Euphrates. In this early attack no-one was killed.

On March 15th (15/3/18) Omar Alloush was assassinated by the HAQ in his home in Serekaniye/Tal Abyad. A Kurd Alloush had been a senior official in the Raqqa Civil Council. A multi-ethnic body established to administer the recently liberated city of Raqqa.

On March 22nd (22/3/18) an SDF commander was shot and killed by the HAQ in Hasakah. This sits around 100km (60 miles) south-west of Qamishli and around 65km (40 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border.

On April 4th (4/4/18) the HAQ claimed to have killed four high ranking members of the SDF. However they offered no locations for or identities of those killed.

On April 5th (5/4/18) the HAQ released video which it claimed to show the killing of two members of the SDF. However again they offered no locations for or identities of those killed.

On April 12th (12/4/18) the HAQ claimed the killing of a high ranking member of the SDF in an IED attack in Manbij.

On April 15th (15/4/18) the HAQ tried and failed to kill an SDF officer in Manbij. One member of the HAQ was killed during the failed attempt.

On April 17th (17/4/18) the HAQ claimed to have killed two members of the SDF in Manbij.

On April 18th (18/4/18) the HAQ claimed the killing of three members of the SDF in an IED attack in Manbij,

On March 29th (29/3/18) Britain saw its first combat death in Syria. Special Operations Force (SOF) Sergeant Matthew Tonroe of Manchester was killed alongside US SOF Master Sergeant Jonathan Dunbar of Texas were killed in Manbij.

Officially the deaths alongside members of the SDF occurred during an operation to capture a senior ISIL leader.

However that is very different from the version I have heard from sources on the ground. Instead the deaths were the result of an IED ambush on vehicles the men were travelling in. The IED had been planted by the HAQ.

The March 29th (29/3/18) deaths triggered a flurry of activity. Largely centred around buses.

This began with a fire aboard a shuttle bus at Standstead Airport in Essex, UK on March 30th (30/3/18). This forced the partial closure of the airport causing widespread disruption during the peak Easter Weekend travel period.

Alongside the obvious references to the May 22nd 2019 (22/5/17) Manchester Evening News Arena (MENA) bombing this invoked memories of the June 30th 2007 (30/6/07) failed Islamist terror attack on Glasgow Airport in Glasgow, UK. Led by the comedian Frankie Boyle people responded to that failed attack by pointing out that if a Muslim wishes to try and bring religious hatred to Glasgow we can really only wish them luck.

April 5th (5/4/18) saw Manchester City play Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals. It also saw the Manchester City team bus attacked by Liverpool fans outside the ground prior to the match.

This invoked memories of the May 11th 2016 (11/5/16) match between Manchester United and West Ham United. The last ever match played at West Ham's Boleyn Ground this saw the Manchester United team bus attacked by West Ham fans outside the ground prior to the match. Amongst other things this was part of a series of warnings for England fans not to pick fights with Russia fans ahead of the 2016 European Football Cup.

The April 5th (5/4/18) incident was also the first bus incident people seemed to notice.

On April 6th (6/4/18) Irish Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter Conor McGregor attacked a bus containing - amongst others - his Russian rival Khabib Nurmagomedov in New York City, US. Although primarily an enquiry the US organisers of UFC along with New York City's Police and Courts seemed to view an Irish attack on a bus as a bad thing.

On April 7th (7/4/18) 15 people were killed when a bus carrying the Humboldt Broncos junior Ice Hockey team crashed in Saskatchewan. In the UK Commonwealth Realm nation of Canada.

By an amazing coincidence many of those injured were treated by Doctor Hassan Masri. He had previously worked providing medical support to Islamists terror groups in Syria in places such as East Ghouta. As seems to be a reflex he described the bus crash as an airstrike.

The Saskatchewan bus crash showed just how out of touch with reality Canada has become under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He assumed all the talk about buses was due to a concern for the Army of Islam fighters who were being removed from East Ghouta by bus at the time. Former US President Obama of course once described ISIL as a; "Junior Varsity (JV) Team."

On the topic of people getting things just horribly wrong this all occurred against the backdrop of the March 4th (4/4/18) poisoning of the Skripals in the British city of Salisbury.

The one thing that has been proved about the Skripal poisoning is that Russia did not do it. The intelligence the British government used to blame Russia has been proven to be false. By Britain itself.

The British government's decision to blame Russia for the Skripal poisoning came at a time when Britain was very reliant on Russia for its security. Both by helping the Syrians defeat ISIL south of the Euphrates and by putting pressure on Erdogan to end his aggression in both Afrin Canton and Shangri-La.

By falsely blaming Russia for the Skripal poisoning and leading a mass expulsion of Russian diplomats in response Britain significantly undermined Russia's ability protect Britain's security. It certainly removed its incentive to do so.

The British government has of course repeatedly stated that the only plausible explanation for the Skripal poisoning is that Russia did it. Looking at Syria I can't help but notice that Erdogan has a significant motive.

As a result the Commonwealth Games and subsequent Commonwealth Heads of Government Summit has been gripped by a discussion of how the current British government made up of the Conservative or "Tory" Party could get its response to the Skripal poisoning so wrong.

The so-called "Windrush Scandal" about the British government wrongly expelling people from the country has already claimed the scalp of the British Secretary of State for Home Affairs (Senior Interior Minister) Amber Rudd.

At around 17:00 on 2/5/18 (UK date) I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:05 on 2/5/18 (UK date) to add;

To see how Britain's Tory government managed to get its response to the Skripal poisoning so badly wrong you really need to look no further then a man named Bill Browder.

Bill Browder is a US born investment banker and multi-millionaire. In 1998 the US reasonably demanded that Browder pay tax on his earnings. Browder's response was to give up his US citizenship citing; "bad feeling about the rule of law (in the US)."

Having been awarded British citizenship Browder moved his business almost exclusively to Russia. In 2005 Russia reasonably demanded that Browder pay tax on his earnings. When Browder refused Russia expelled him from the country.

As part of the investigation into Browder's tax evasion his Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was arrested in 2008. He died in prison in late 2009. Browder declared that this gave him; "bad feelings about the rule of law (in Russia)." 

In 2011 Bill Browder's luck came in when the conflict began in Syria. This saw the US under former President Obama try to overthrow the Syrian government supported by Russia.

Obviously the US attempting to overthrow the Syrian government is wholly illegal. That meant that Obama couldn't impose sanctions on Russia for blocking his illegal activities. So instead Obama turned to Browder and imposed sanctions on Russia under the guise of the Magnitsky Act.

This was great news for Browder. Rather than asking why he wasn't paying tax western governments were falling over themselves to put their support behind Browder's efforts to seek revenge on Russia for demanding that he paid tax.

Browder has been a big donor to the British Tory Party. In return he wants the Tory government to introduce what is known as the Magnitsky Amendment. Essentially this will apply the sanctions of the Magnitsky Act to Russians doing business with the UK.

The British government's security council met to assess the Skripal poisoning on March 12th (12/3/18). This meeting resulted in Britain formally and falsely blaming Russia.

Within the British Tory Party one of the main recipients of Browder's money is Thomas Tugendhat. A backbench MP who has no role in the cabinet or security council. In return for his money Tugendhat is the main sponsor of Browder's Magnitsky Amendment.

Over the weekend leading up to the March 12th (12/318) meeting Tugendhat was bombarding journalists and TV studios. This included multiple appearances on the prestige Sunday morning political discussion shows which like to think they set the political agenda for the coming week.

Tugendhat's mantra for this media blitz was that he "EXPECTS!" the Prime Minister Theresa May to blame Russia for the Skripal poisoning. Regardless of what information was provided at the upcoming security council meeting.

Prime Minister May is in a very weak position. She leads a government which does not have the Parliamentary majority it needs to govern.

As such you can't help but think that Prime Minister May's judgement in the Skripal case was clouded by the clarion call coming from the likes of Tugendhat. And by extension Bill Browder.

Bill Browder's poisonous effect on democracy is felt not just in the US and Britain.

In 2016 the Canadian government refused to introduce a Canadian version of Browder's Magnitsky Amendment. Browder's response was to openly threaten Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.

If the Magnitsky Amendment was not introduced Browder would use his wealth to mobilise Canada's Ukrainian ex-pat community against the incumbent Foreign Minister Stephane Dion and Trudeau's government.

In response to this threat Prime Minister Trudeau crumpled. Dion was sacked and replaced with Browder approved Chrystia Freeland. One of her first acts as Foreign Minister was to introduce Browder's Magnitsky Amendment.

Perhaps it is Freeland's poor grasp of foreign affairs that led to Canada getting the discussion about buses so horribly wrong.

19:50 on 2/5/18 (UK date).