On Saturday October 7th (7/10/23) the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) launched a surprise attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Under the cover of some 3,000 rockets this attack saw Hamas temporarily take control of 480km² (260miles²) of Israeli territory alongside the Gaza Strip.
Within that area Hamas set about systematically slaughtering a large number of they believed to be Jews. Simply because they believed them to be Jews.
At first sight (prima facie) this constitutes multiple offences of the Crime Against Humanity of; "Murder" contrary to Article 7.1(a) of The Rome Statute of 1998. Prima facie it also constitutes the Crime Against Humanity of; "Extermination," commonly referred to as; "Genocide." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to articles 7.1(b)(h) of the Rome Statute.
Hamas also took hostage a large number of people, both civilian and military, which it believed to be Jews. Prima facie each hostage taken constitutes the multiple Crimes Against Humanity of; "Imprisonment," "Forced Displacement" and "Other Inhumane Acts [...] Causing Serious Injury to Body or to Physical or Mental Health." With the purpose of persecuting a Religious Group. Contrary to Article 7.1(e)(i)(k)(h) of the Rome Statute.
Following a humiliatingly long period of trying to ignore the fact. International bodies such as the United Nations Entity For Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have now acknowledged that Hamas also committed widespread and systematic acts of; "Rape and/or Sexual Violence." Further Crimes Against Humanity contrary to Article 7.1(g) of the Rome Statute.
In committing its crimes Hamas used some of the most wanton and horrific violence ever seen. Going to great lengths to mutilate the corpses of those it killed. Seemingly in an attempt to maximise the suffering of their relatives individually and nation of Israel collectively. By violating a key tenet of Jewish religious law. That if a body is less then whole then it cannot be returned to God through Jewish mourning rites. As a result it is still impossible to give an accurate number of those killed on October 7th (7/10/23).
In a further effort to cause maximum
suffering Hamas has still not provided a comprehensive list of the
hostages it has taken. Each failure to do so, prima facie, represents a War Crime contrary to Article 25 of the Geneva Convention of 1949. Hamas certainly hasn't allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross/Crescent (ICRC) to visit them, let alone render them Humanitarian Aid. Further War Crimes, contrary to Article 140 of the 1949 Geneva Convention.
Not that the ICRC has expressed any interest in contacting the hostages or providing them with any sort of aid.
Even going so far as to refuse to accept deliveries of vital medicines
for the hostages. Let alone ask Hamas to allow it to deliver them to the
hostages. The rendering of medical aid to prisoners in conflict really
being the ICRC's core, founding function under International
Humanitarian Law.
Hamas' failure to provide a comprehensive list of the hostages it holds along with its wanton and gruesome violence means that it is also impossible to give an exact number of those kidnapped on October 7th (7/10/23).
In an effort to spare the families of the October 7th victims the trauma and uncertainty of not knowing what has happened to their loved ones Israel has been forced to establish panels of medical experts. Their task is to examine the footage and other evidence from October 7th (7/10/23) to determine those who were taken alive by Hamas and those who were killed on the day only for their corpses to be taken hostage by Hamas.
In the time since my last update that panel has declared a further three people dead in absentia. While an additional three people who were believed to be missing have been confirmed to have been taken hostage. Making the current estimate that Hamas and associated groups are still holding 121 live hostages. Constituting 484 Individual, Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity.
Hamas launched its attack on the 50th anniversary of The October 1973 War. In which the Arab nations of Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, along with Cuba and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North), united in an effort to wipe Israel from existence.
What Hamas seem to have forgotten is that Israel won the October 1973 War. Not only that, it won descisively and comprehensively. As rather evidenced by the fact there's still an Israel to attack 50 years later.
Now that it has become more comfortable in its position. Having achieved many of its initial goals, not least expelling Hamas from Israeli territory. Israel seems to be starting to think that it can fully repeat the successes of the October 1973 War. Eliminating all the threats on its borders and beyond. Starting with the Lebanese Party of God (Hezbollah) in Lebanon and its regional ally Iran.
In this aspiration Israel also seems to have forgotten some things. Firstly that the October 1973 War was a conventional war. Once the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) had destroyed the Combat Effectiveness of the armies attacking it the nations controlling those armies do what rational nations do in conventional warfare. Rather than being destroyed they surrendered. In order to protect their own people.
In launching its attack on October 7th Hamas was hoping to emulate the losing side in the October 1973 War. That is not rational behaviour. Hamas has tried to fight a conventional war. However as it has been losing that conventional war Hamas has shown no sign of surrendering, either to protect itself or Palestinian civilians being forced to live in the firing line.
Instead Hamas has increasingly turned to unconventional insurgency warfare, or Guerrilla Warfare. The objective of guerrilla warfare is not to defeat your enemy. It is simply to harm enough of your enemy's troops that its morale collapses and it gives up. With Hamas increasingly conducting suicide attacks amid a soaring civilian deathtoll Hamas doesn't even seem to care whether it survives, just as long as Jews die. The result is a much more grinding and time consuming type of war.
The better analogy is not the October 1973 War but The First Lebanon War. Which lasted from 1982 through to 2000 and saw over 1,200 IDF troops killed. Although the Gaza Strip is much smaller and significantly less complicated that Lebanon in the midst of a civil war.
Israel also seems to have forgotten the real reason why Hamas attacked it. Qatar paid Hamas a lot of money to attack Israel.
Back in late 2010 through to early 2011 the people of Tunisia and Egypt overthrew their dictators. They saw this as an opportunity to bring Democracy to the Arab World. Being deeply and ideologically opposed to Democracy the Muslim Brotherhood couldn't allow that to happen. So instead to two main state sponsors of the Muslim Brotherhood - the Kingdom of Qatar and Turkey - set about suppressing burgeoning Democracy across the Arab World. Instead trying to establish their dominance across the Arab World.
The exact details of the plan are a matter of debate between Qatar and Turkey. However generally it would involve Turkey re-establishing The Ottoman Empire, across the entire Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region, with Qatar taking control of resource rich nations like Libya.
The Muslim Brotherhood's plan for regional and global domination ran into serious problems in Syria and Iraq in 2014. When it's Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and allied proxies such as Al Qaeda hit a Stop-Line. One which was made up predominately of Arab Muslims but is critically supported by Russia and Iran.
2023 was supposed to be the year that the Muslim Brotherhood finally overcame this Stop-Line and got its plans for regional and global domination back on track. With the Muslim Brotherhood having installed a puppet regime in the US NATO had attacked Ukraine, the Donbas Republics and Russia. In the war that would finally defeat Russia and collapse the Stop-Line in Syria and Iraq.
However with Russia receiving assistance from Iran that didn't happen for the Muslim Brotherhood. As spring turned to summer and then summer turned into autumn the big offensive against Russia went nowhere.
So the October 7th attack was the Muslim Brotherhood's last, desperate role of the dice. By forcing Lebanese Hezbollah into a war with Israel it would give NATO an excuse to attack Iran. Ending Iran's support for Russia causing Russia to be defeated and the Stop-Line in Syria and Iraq to collapse.
I really hope Israel has noticed that it stands between Egypt and Syria. The former seat of the Mamluk Empire and the site of the decisive battle which saw the Ottomans defeat the Mamluk's to establish the Ottoman Empire.
Perhaps suggesting it hasn't. On December 25th (25/12/23) the IDF conducted an airstrike close to the Syrian capital Damascus targeting a meeting of senior members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). Most prominent of those killed was the IRGC General and its head of logistics in Syria, Sayyad Reza Mousavi. In events incredibly similar to the US' assassination of IGRC General Qasem Soleimani - a key figure in that much talked about 2016/16 Battle of Mosul - in Iraq on January 3rd 2020 (3/1/20).
Although it was an IDF strike the killing of Mousavi seemed to be done more under American direction than Israeli direction. Coming as it did on Christmas Day.
Christmas is the second most important festival in the Christian Calendar. It begins on Christmas Day, which under the Gregorian Calendar, always falls on December 25th. It then runs through to the Feast of the Epiphany, 12 days later on January 6th. It celebrates the birth of the Jew Jesus Christ in the Kingdom of Judea and then the realisation or; "epiphany" that he is the Son of God, King of the Jews.
However most people who celebrate Christmas don't know that. Culturally it's just a holiday between December 25th and January 1st. Right when the weather's normally at its coldest and the days are certainly at their shortest.
Although the week between Christmas Day and New Year's Day is a big holiday. For adults the weeks leading up to Christmas Day are normally pretty stressful. A big part of the cultural mythology are these magical little elves which come in and do all the work. This year on the Saturday before Christmas Day (23/12/23) I found myself cleaning my oven at around 11pm at night. As that was the only time I could find to do that essential task.
Culturally celebrations involve getting up very early to cook a big meal for lunch. This means that quite a lot of people, myself included, end up starting to drink strong alcohol at around 9am in the morning. Any other day of the year it is only chronic alcoholics who do that. Most people then just keep drinking strong alcohol throughout the rest of the day.
So by the evening on Christmas Day, when news of General Mousavi's assassination stared to break, no-one in the entire western world is at their best.
Nations tend to start preparing their entries for the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest around December through to March. So in recent years I've taken to using that holiday to write about vaguely Eurovision Song Contest related topics. If not catching up on things from the previous year's Song Contest which I still hadn't got around to covering.
The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest was supposed to be a big part of the Muslim Brotherhood's big comeback year. Hamas' named its October 7th attack on Israel; "Operation: Al Aqsa Flood." In reference to what would have been Israel's 2023 Song Contest entry; "Unicorn" by Noa Kirel.
While the Muslim Brotherhood were clearly furious that the 2023 Song Contest didn't take place I was actually rather happy. It meant I didn't have to spend that week of holiday working. Or it would have done if it hadn't been for this war the Muslim Brotherhood started.
So I guess the US' choices were yet another Miley Cyrus festive TV show or killing an Iranian General. Apparently they just never see not embarrassing themselves as an option.
Every year Iran marks the anniversary of the US assassination of General Soleimani with a ceremony at his tomb in Kerman. This year (3/1/24) that ceremony was attacked by the ISIL branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Killing at least 95 people.
Obviously in the wake of the assassination of General Mousavi the aspiration was that everyone would blame the attack on Israel. Forcing Iran to go to war with Israel. Giving NATO the excuse the Muslim Brotherhood is desperate for to go to war with Iran. Failing that ISIL has joined the US in giving Iran a bit of a kicking.
If it failed in its primary aspiration then Hamas had a secondary aspiration in launching its October 7th attack. That it would be able to exploit the hostages it took to force Israel into long and torturous negotiations. Negotiations which would not only see a ceasefire which would allow Hamas to survive but also see the release of all Hamas combatants legally held in Israeli prisons. In return for some vague hope that some of the hostages might be released at some point in the future.
Almost immediately as Hamas attacked the IDF launched a counter-offensive. This included airstrikes against military targets within the Gaza Strip. On October 28th (28/10/23) this counter-offensive expanded to include IDF ground operations within the Gaza Strip.
This initial phase of the IDF's ground operations saw them divide the Gaza Strip into two zones, broadly along the Wadi Gaza river. The southern Non-Combat Zone and the northern Combat Zone. Instructing and assisting civilians to move out of the Combat Zone and into the Non-Combat Zone.
By around November 13th (13/11/23) it seemed that the IDF had all but defeated Hamas in the Combat Zone in the North. Advancing from Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun it had encircled and entered Gaza City, the main city in the Combat Zone. Hamas' main defensive positions in the Jabaliya and Shati districts of Gaza City had been overrun and it was assessed that 10 of Hamas' 24 battalions in the Combat Zone had lost Combat Effectiveness.
This left Hamas in control of the Shejaiya, Rimal, Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City. Along with Jabaliya and the accompanying Jabaliya Refugee Camp, a city literally just across the road from Gaza City.
Beyond those areas IDF operations in the Northern Combat Zone had moved from combat to mopping up operations. That is to say indentifying remaining Hamas fighters and capturing or, frankly, killing them. Along with dismantling Hamas military infrastructure such as its weapons stores, bases and underground tunnels.
On November 24th (24/11/23) it looked as though Hamas may be successful in its secondary aspiration. A ceasefire was declared as Israel exchanged Hamas combatants held in Israeli prisons for civilian hostages held by Hamas. This ceasefire was extended several times with 81 Israeli civilian hostages being exchanged for 210 Hamas combatants. Alongside but separate from, that agreement Hamas also released 21 non-Israeli civilian hostages, without obtaining any concession in return.
That ceasefire brokedown on December 1st (1/12/23). With both Hamas and then the IDF resuming airstrikes and artillery fire.
On December 3rd (3/12/23) the IDF launched a new phase of its ground operations. Attacking the Rimal and Shejaiya districts of Gaza City along with Jabaliya and Jabaliya Refugee Camp. This was closely coordinated with ground operations against Khan Younis, essentially the Gaza Strip's second city, which is located on the Southern Zone around 6km (3.5 miles) North of the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt.
On December 19th (19/12/23) the IDF completed the combat phase of its operation in Jabaliya and the Jabaliya Refugee Camp (est. 1948). On December 21st (21/12/23) the IDF completed the combat phase of its operation in the Shejaiya district of Gaza City. In both Jabaliya and its refugee camp and the Shejaiya district the IDF moved onto mopping up operations.
This comes after the IDF completed the mopping up phases of its operations in Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun on December 16th (16/12/23) and December 18th (18/12/23). In those areas the IDF's operations have progressed to a lower intensity phase. In which they simply hold the areas they have gained and secured.
On December 21st (21/12/23) the IDF expanded its combat operations from the Rimal district of Gaza City of the Tuffah and Daraj districts. On January 2nd (2/1/24) the IDF captured the last Hamas positions in Daraj and Tuffah. Completely ending combat operations in the North.
There are still some mopping up operations for the IDF to conduct in the North. For example they captured the Blue Beach Hotel in the Shati district from Hamas on November 10th (10/11/23). However it took the IDF until January 5th (5/1/24) to fully dismantled the network of tunnels, bunkers and fighting positions which had made up Hamas' "Badr Outpost."
The IDF's operations in the North are now focused on holding the territory they've established control over. This actually makes their troops more vulnerable, to the guerrilla style hit-and-run attacks of insurgency warfare. In order to reduce those risks the IDF has reduced the numbers of its troops in the North. Demobilising six brigades allowing the roughly 30,000 reservists in those brigades to return to civilian life. Those Brigades; 551 & 14 along with Division 252 did the bulk of the fighting in the North. So I certainly think they deserve a reward.
Due to its size and density you really have to think of the Gaza Strip as a single battlespace. Rather than a nation made up of different cities and towns which can be divided up into different battlespaces. A big part of the reason why the IDF delayed tacking the Tuffah and Daraj districts of Gaza City is that combat there would need to see them expand combat south of the Wadi Gaza river into Central Gaza.
On December 30th (30/12/23) the IDF confirmed that it is conducting combat operations in Central Gaza. Two full Divisions, eight Brigades, are believed to be operating in the area. With a particular focus on Deir al-Balah and el-Bureij.
Attacking the city from multiple directions at the same time the IDF were able to quickly take control of the centre of Khan Younis. It overran Hamas' main defences in just three days. After eight days the Chief-of-Staff of the IDF was able to hold meetings with field commanders within the city.
Since then the IDF seems to have been moving more slowly and methodically. Combining combat operations with mopping up operations as they go through the painstaking, grinding business of clearing Hamas house-by-house, street-by-street. Then destroying Hamas' military infrastructure almost as soon as they clear it. The current focus seems to be on the north and east sectors of the city. Along with the western, almost, suburb of Khirbet Khuza'a. Due to this more methodical way of operating the IDF don't expect to even start tackling the other sectors of Khan Younis for several more weeks.
Further demonstrating how the Gaza Strip is best thought of as a single battlespace. The combat operations in Deir al-Balah in the centre are now starting to merge with the combat operations in Khan Younis in the south.
Despite how it is being portrayed in certain sections of the, particularly western, media this is not an Israel-Gaza War. It is an Israel-Hamas War. Israel is not at war with either the Gaza Strip or the Palestinian people in general. Israel is at war with those who have made the choice to be members of Hamas. A wholly illegal armed group under an interpretation of the laws of war.
This distinction was made abundantly clear when an airstrike killed Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas' deputy head and head of operations in the occupied West Bank. However this airstrike did not take place in either the Gaza Strip or anywhere else in Palestine. It took place in Beirut, Lebanon. A country which like Syria is still, technically, at war with Israel.
20:36 on 8/1/24 (UK date).
