On Tuesday November 8th (8/11/22) the US will hold its mid-term elections.
This will see all of the seats in the House of Representatives along with one third of the seats the Senate being contested. Along with a range of State and local votes.
Since 2020 America has very much embraced early and absentee, postal-voting. So this election is actually happening now.
When and if the votes are actually cast this will be the first electoral test of Joe Biden. Who some refer to as the US President.
I though think of as the bloody nose America still so proudly wears. Just to honour me.
The main issue of the election will, undoubtedly, be the economy.
That was the entire point being made by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization (2022). Which overturned Roe v Wade (1973).
Abortion is an issue to be decided at the State level. Not the Federal level. You only need to look at what voters achieved in Kansas back in August 2022. Without putting a single Democrat on the ballot.
On the issue of the economy there is no doubt. The Biden regime has been a disaster. It is now even difficult to say which economic crisis the US is in the grips of.
That is really is the only impressive thing about the Biden regime. The speed at which it fails.
Things have gotten so bad it is almost impossible to remember US-led NATO's disastrous collapse in Afghanistan. That was only 14 months ago.
However if I was writing this at this point last year. Then I would be talking about The Supply-Chain Crisis.
The Supply-Chain Crisis was entirely the result of governments' response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.
I'm sure I don't need to remind you what it was like. You were there.
Governments simply ordered business to close down and shut-up shop. They not only banned people from going out to work. They banned people from going outside at all.
China is the workshop of the World. All of its factories shutdown for the Chinese New Year celebration in February 2020. Then just didn't reopen again. Until, really, the autumn of 2021.
This is something that was completely unprecedented in Economics. Let alone in the global economy. Governments decided to take the entire Supply-Side of the economy and simply unplug it at the wall.
At the same time governments, particularly western governments, decided to keep the Demand-Side of the economy operating at the same level. By handing out money in the form of various furlough and stimulus packages.
In the US many of these stimulus measures were carried out at the State level, so varied. However the Federal government went so far as just giving every adult checks. $1,200 in April 2020 and a further $600 in December 2020.
This switching off of the Supply-Side of the economy while boosting the Demand-Side of the economy. That created a situation where Demand wildly outstripped Supply.
Now I am very firmly in the Neo-Liberal, Austria School of Economics. That the market is nothing more than a reflection of an almost infinite number of, often highly irrational, human decisions.
However, as a general rule. People try and get as much money as possible, for as little effort as possible.
So when Demand outstrips Supply people sell to the highest bidder. Meaning that prices rise; Inflation.
When Demand wildly outstrips Supply. Then you get wild Inflation.
The destructive effects of the Pandemic Stimulus plans were entirely predictable. They'd happened before. During The Stagflation Crisis of the 1970's.
In the wake of the Second World War the Capitalist First World became obsessed with the teachings of John Maynard Keynes. Despite John Maynard Keynes being one of the main architects of The Great Depression of the 1930's.
This so-called; "Keynesian Consensus" dictated that governments intervene in the market at every opportunity.
It turns out that voters quite like having money and jobs. In that order. So one of the main ways governments intervened in the market was to subsidize companies to employ people. Either through tax breaks or by just giving them money.
The purpose wasn't for the companies to employ people to actually do anything. Just to give them an excuse to leave the house in the morning and collect a paycheck at the end of the week. Allowing governments to boast about how they had achieved full employment.
With everyone employed but no-one actually doing anything. The Supply-Side of the economy more-or-less ground to a halt. It Stagnated.
At the same time everyone had lots of money to spend. Meaning that the Demand-Side of the economy boomed. Meaning that Demand wildly outstripped Supply and you got wild Inflation.
This combination of Stagnation and Inflation became known as; "Stagflation."
It tore apart the Keynesian Consensus. Seeing it being replaced by Neo-Liberalism. The economic practice that has driven unprecedented global wealth and prosperity over the past 40-50 years.
The idea at the core of Neo-Liberalism is that governments should intervene in the market as sparingly as possible. As no government will ever have the intellectual ability to replace that almost infinite number of human decisions.
With the Pandemic Stimulus plans governments went even further than the failed Keynesian Consensus. Completely shutting down the Supply-Side of the economy and doing away with the pretence of people going out to work. Just giving them a paycheck at the end of the week instead.
So every time Joe Biden says; "The US economy isn't in recession. We've got really good job numbers!"
It only further underlines that Joe Biden is just a senile old man. Who has absolutely no idea what he is talking about.
Admittedly the Biden regime did not take power until January 2021. However I'm sure that we all remember that they were probably the most vocal supporters of Pandemic restrictions, anywhere in the World. Even the Chinese Communist Party objected more than the US Democrat Party.
So as part of their campaign to put the Biden regime in power Democrats viciously attacked President Trump's attempts to keep the Supply-Side of the economy open at every opportunity. While seeming to make a virtue out of how many facemasks they could wear at any one time.
It was certainly one of the issues that gripped voters in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign. Whether the $3,000 stimulus checks that Joe Biden had promised would include the $1,800 checks already handed out. Or whether it would be an additional $3,000.
The Supply-Chain Crisis has been caused, entirely, by governments ordering the economy to shutdown. As soon as governments allowed the economy to re-open again almost all of the problems would solve themselves.
The Universe's natural desire for equilibrium. The; "Wu Wei" or; "Effortless Action" of ancient Asian philosophy.
When you're talking about Supply-Chains you're really talking about Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU's). Shipping Containers. Almost everything in the World moves in shipping containers.
Prior to the Pandemic restrictions Chinese factories would fill up shipping containers with goods. They would then load them onto trucks and then ships. Which would, eventually, deliver them to the US.
In the US the shipping containers would be loaded onto trucks and taken to warehouses and factories. Where they would be emptied.
The shipping containers would then be filled up with other goods. Then loaded onto trucks and ships. Which would, eventually, deliver them to China. Where the whole process would start again.
When the Pandemic restrictions started to lift and Chinese factories began to re-open. They discovered that all the empty shipping containers weren't in China. They were in America.
Obviously no-one wants to pay to move an empty shipping container across the World. There is absolutely no revenue in that sort of dead-heading. It is only expense.
However if people need to go to that expense in order to do their business and generate revenue. Then they will be prepared to pay for it. Particularly if they can pass the cost onto their customer. Even if that further increases inflation.
Likewise if Demand for storing empty shipping containers exceeds the Supply of storage for empty shipping containers. Then people with Supply will start charging more to store empty shipping containers.
Eventually reaching a point where it is cheaper to just move empty shipping containers across the World. Even if that further drives up inflation.
A very similar thing happened following The 2008 Financial Crisis. Where global trade wasn't completely shutdown but, certainly, was significantly reduced.
Back then logistics companies like Maersk wouldn't just give you their surplus stock of shipping containers. They would pay you to take them off their hands. Then pay you again to buy them back when Demand increased.
However very few people actually know about the Supply-Chain crisis caused by the 2008 Financial Crisis. As it just, quietly, sorted itself out. Through that almost infinite number of human decisions.
So in alleviating the current Supply-Chain crisis. There may have been some, small, role for governments in chartering ships to move empty shipping containers across the World. A comparatively small expense which would have had an outsized role in reducing inflation.
Instead, having created the Supply-Chain Crisis. Everything the Biden regime has done since has seemed designed to make it worse.
The signature policy of the Biden regime has been the; "Build Back Better" plan.
The Build Back Better plan is based on the; "New Deal" of the 1930's. Introduced by Democrat President and lynching enthusiast Franklin D. Roosevelt. In order to lift America out of The Great Depression in the 1930's.
Franklin D. Roosevelt was a big proponent of Keynesian theory. Despite John Maynard Keynes being one of the main architects of the Great Depression in the first place.
To start with Biden's Build Back Better plan saw everyone receive a further $1,400 check. Parents being given a further $3,000 check for each of their children. The unemployed getting a further $300 per month check. A typical family of four getting a further $400 yearly check to spend on health insurance.
Along with a huge fund of subsidized loans and grants to keep business shut. Stopping the Supply-Side of the economy from starting up again.
The main part of Biden's Build Back Better plan though was simply a direct copy of Roosevelt/Keynes' New Deal policy. The government is to intervene in the market by funding massive infrastructure construction projects. To emulate the Hoover Dam or the Grand Coulee Dam.
I think that Capitalism is the only economic model. What with the market being nothing more than a reflection of an almost infinite number of human decisions.
However I appreciate that, like the humans making the decisions. There are parts of Economics which are completely irrational, making absolutely no logical sense.
Chief amongst these is the; Leverage Effect.
The Leverage Effect dictates that if I have $1 then give it to you. Then I haven't lost $1 while you have gained $1. There are now $2.
An inflation rate of 100%. In that extremely narrow example.
Different economic activities have different leverage effects. They generate different amounts of money. Large construction projects have the highest leverage effect; 8. For every $1 spent $8 are created. An inflation rate of 8%.
This makes large construction projects very popular with politicians. As they allow them to make it look like the economy is growing, without anyone actually getting any richer.
In developed nations, like the US, it's actually something of a useful barometer of how badly your economy is doing. How much time your politicians spend in hi-vis jackets and hard hats. Announcing big infrastructure construction projects.
The first part of the Biden regime's Build Back Better plan is a $1.9 Trillion stimulus check. Assuming all of that stimulus check is spent on infrastructure construction projects, with a Leverage Effect of 8. Then it will have an 8% inflation rate.
So it will make Americans $15.2 Trillion poorer. In real terms
Large infrastructure construction projects also compete for workers with very specific skills. Such as truck drivers, crane operators and mechanics specialising in keeping that sort of heavy machinery working.
It is a shortage of exactly that type of skilled worker which has further snarled supply-chains. With Demand outstripping Supply it is further driving up inflation.
The Biden regime's Build Back Better plan will also further increase Demand for a limited Supply of skilled workers. Further driving up inflation.
So Americans would probably be lucky. If the Biden regime's Build Back plan only makes them $15.2 Trillion poorer. In real terms.
That is really the only thing that the Biden regime has got right with its Build Back Better plan. The acronym. As BBB- is what America's credit-rating is going to end up as.
The Biden regime actually intends the Build Back Better to happen in three parts. Fortunately it is only the first part, the American Rescue Plan (ARP), the $1.9 Trillion stimulus check, that they've been able to implement so far.
Meaning there is much worse to come. In the form of the American Jobs Plan (AJP), a further $2.3 Trillion stimulus check. Along with the American Family Plan (AFP), a further $1.8 Trillion stimulus check.
Assuming a median Leverage Effect and therefore inflation rate of 4%. These will make Americans a further $16.4 Trillion poorer. In real terms. On top of the $15.2 Trillion that the Biden regime has already made Americans poorer.
Both the American Jobs Plan and the American Family Plan have already passed the House of Representatives. The lower house of Congress in which Biden's Democrat Party hold a majority.
However both the American Jobs Plan and the American Family Plan have been blocked in the Senate, the upper house of Congress. By just two Democrat Senators; Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema.
So at these mid-term elections it is clear that American voters really need to send Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema some help!
They clearly cannot protect all of you from the Biden regime all on their own.
Sinema and Manchin certainly weren't able to protect American voters when the Biden regime removed a full 30% of the entire World's food (wheat/grain) supply from the market. A move so insane it's not an Economics problem. It's a Genocide problem.
Manchin and Sinema certainly weren't able to protect American voters when the Biden regime removed 8% of all the Oil in the World from the market. Along with 11% of all of the Natural Gas in the World.
On top of the 5% of all the Oil in the World and 26% of all the Natural Gas in the World. That the Biden regime is still insisting on keeping off the market.
Sinema and Manchin certainly weren't able to protect American voters from the laughably named; "Inflation Reduction Act."
A further $1.1 Trillion stimulus check. Which, charitably, assuming a Leverage Effect and therefore inflation rate of 4%. Will make Americans $4.4 Trillion poorer in real terms.
Manchin and Sinema weren't even able to protect Americans from the Biden regime's Student Loan Relief plan.
Apart from being yet another way to use American's money to try and pay people to like him.
The Student Loan Relief plan is really just a $400bn way for Joe Biden to demand that I need to college. To learn how to do Economics.
Like how Joe Biden knows how to do Economics.
16:25 on 6/11/22 (UK date)*.
