Operation Featherweight: Month 64, Week 5, Day 1.

In the spring of 2019 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were on the verge of total defeat. In both Syria and Iraq.

This apparently was too much of a trauma for Twitter to bear.

So they blocked by account. Cutting me off from my contacts in the region. Not that I'm even happy to confirm that I have contacts. It does, after all, appear to be quite a risky part of the World.

In recent weeks though the conflict in Syria has once again started to be reported on in the western media. Forcing them to break with a longstanding policy that if they have to report the truth they'd rather not report on it at all.

As a result I can confirm that the conflict in Syria continues to be divided into five main areas of operations. Reading from left-to-right;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La: This is located in the north-east of Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition.

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). Who are predominately Muslim. They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element makes up around 50% of the SDF. It is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.

Over the past five years the SDF has been begrudgingly supported by the US-led coalition. Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

I remember having to drag former US President Barack Obama kicking and screaming into the Battle of Kobane in the winter of 2014. A posture Obama maintained whenever it came to fighting ISIL.

Garvaghy Road: This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey a Jarablus. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of  the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).  Those regular Turkish forces command an irregular force known that the United Turkmen Army (UTA). Sometimes referred to as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the proudly fascist Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. They take their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror.

Amid fighting in other areas of Syria the UTA has expanded to include extreme Islamist factions of the long fragmented FSA. Most notably The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham) and The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).

The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than ISIL. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.

Afrin Canton: Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.

Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.

However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). 

As within Garvaghy Road those regular Turkish forces command an irregular UTA force. Including Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam.

The Sudetenland: This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.

Prior to January 2019 control of the Sudetenland was shared between the UTA and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant (HTS). 

HTS simply being the latest name used by Al Qaeda/The Base (AQ) in Syria. Alongside new recruits, both Syrian and foreign, the group also contains original, core Al Qaeda fighters. Including the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP).

In January 2019 the UTA and HTS reached a Turkish brokered agreement. Which saw the UTA withdraw to Afrin Canton and HTS take complete control over the Sudetenland.

Since October 2017 Al Qaeda have been protected in the Sudetenland by the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).

This has been achieved by the TSK establishing a network of small military bases known as; "Control Points" or "Observation Posts." Over time that network of Turkish Control Points has expanded to 18.

Central Syria: The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government.

It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

The liberation of Central Syria was the result of a nearly year long anti-ISIL operation by the Syrians. In both the north and the south of the country this saw them advance from west to east.

In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.

From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.

In December 2017 the Syrians liberated Al Boukamal/Abu Kamal which sits on the Euphrates as it enters Iraq from Syia. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
 
There remained though two areas still outside of Syrian control. 

Firstly the East Ghouta suburb of the capital Damascus, the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees and the East Qalamoun Mountain area. Including the al-Safa Volcanic Plateau.

Secondly the Yarmouk River Basin area. The area in the basin of the Yarmouk River in the very south-west of Syria. It includes Daraa Province, Quneitra Province and As-Suwayda Province.

In late February 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the East Ghouta suburb, the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees and the East Qalamoun Mountains. This succeeded in its objective with ISIL's surrender at the Safa Plateau in November 2018.

In June 2018 the Syrians launched an operation to liberate the Yarmouk River Basin area. This was completed in August 2018. Following the surrender of ISIL's Jaish al-Khalid Ibn al-Walid/Army of Khalid Ibn al-Walid.

Within the Central Syria area though there continues to be one small area outside of Syrian control.

A US base close to the town of al-Tanf. This used to be designated; "Bobby Sands" but due to Brexit concerns has been re-designated; "Dollywood."

Dollywood: This base was established by CJTFOIR to train a coalition of forces known as the Southern Front.

Initially to assist ISIL in overthrowing the Syrian government. Then as potential corridor to link the SDF in Shangri-La with anti-ISIL forces in the Central Syria area.

The Syrians liberation of al-Tanf in June 2017 however rendered the Dollywood base strategically void. Causing CJTFOIR forces to withdraw.

US troops though continues to operate the Dollywood base. Where they house an Islamist fragment of the now defunct Southern Front, the Islamist Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT).

The US' reasoning behind clinging onto the Dollywood base is that it sits on a border crossing between Iraq and Syria. With the M2 Highway linking the Iraqi capital Baghdad to the Syrian capital Damascus.

The US think that continuing to control al-Tanf border crossing will prevent Iran from supplying Lebanese Hezbollah with weapons. Via road across Iraq and Syria.

That is of course is an absolute strategic idiocy.

Shutting down a single road junction does not cripple an entire nation's road network. Otherwise every country would grind to a halt every time there's a car crash. Plus the al-Tanf border crossing can be completely controlled from the Iraqi side of the border.

The refusal to withdraw US troops from Dollywood is now actually one of the few things keeping ISIL alive in Syria.

In order to protect the Dollywood base the US has imposed a roughly 11,500kmsq (6,900 milesq) exclusion zone around it.

This US imposed exclusion zone includes the Ruqban Camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's). Control of which is shared between ISIL and Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT). The Islamist group trained and supported by the US.

ISIL are able to use the civilian population of the Ruqban Camp as both human shields and as a revenue producing tax base. ISIL are also able to use the area as a base to conduct operations against the Syrians across the Syrian desert/Badiya al-Sham.

Syrian forces are not able to enter the US imposed exclusion zone around Dollywood to combat ISIL. The US force at Dollywood is too small to combat ISIL. Not that they seem to possess any desire to do so.

It is telling that when ISIL surrendered both in the Yarmouk River basin and at the Safa Plateau they asked to be transferred to Dollywood. Where they could rely on US protection.

Amid all the recent hokey-poky around bringing US troops back from Syria the US refuses to even entertain the idea of closing the Dollywood base.

The most recent developments in Syria have occurred in the Shangri-La area.

On October 6th 2019 (6/10/19) US President Donald Trump abandoned the SDF.

He gave Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan permission to illegally invade and occupy a 35km (20 mile) deep, 420km (250 mile) wide area in the north of Shangri-La.

This roughly 15,160kmsq (9,100milesq) zone has been designated; Danzig. 

Which, after all, is what tends to get invaded once the Sudetenland has been annexed. 

It would be nice to pretend that there was some grand strategic thought behind US President Trump's decision. The sad fact of the matter though is that he simply threw a childish tantrum.

Frustrated by what are very minor domestic political challenges Trump decided that work was beneath.

Particularly the tiny bit of work he would personally have to do.

Telling Erdogan that he has to adhere to the Charter of the United Nations. The barest minimum international legal commitment for Turkey to be considered a nation state.

Erdogan's illegal invasion and occupation began on October 9th 2019 (9/10/19).

Just as had happened in the Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton areas it was led by the regular Turkish Military (TSK). With the support of the irregular United Turkmen Army. Including the extremely vicious, Islamist Jaish al-Islam/Army of Islam.

By October 17th 2019 (17/10/19) Erdogan's forces had reached the M4 Highway. Which stretches across the north of the Shangri-La area.

They had done this on two axis;

The first saw them enter Shangri-La in line with the town of Gire Spi/Tel Abyad. This sits around 75km (45 miles) east of where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey.

The second saw them enter Shangri-La in line with the town of Serekanyie/Ras al-Ayn. This sits around 105km (60 miles) east of Gire Spi/Tel Abyad. Around 180km (110 miles) east of where the Euphrates enters Syria from Turkey.

Both Gire Spi/Tel Abyad and Serekanyie/Ras al-Ayn and their surrounding villages were captured by Erdogan's forces as part of the invasion.

Erdogan then declared a 120 hour pause in operations. The purpose being for the SDF to withdraw from the Danzig zone.

This 120 hour pause was nothing more than an effort by US President Trump to further protect Erdogan. From comprehensive sanctions that are/were being introduced by the US Congress.

With US President Trump being completely unwilling to prevent the invasion of Danzig it fell to Russia, Iran and Syria to fill the vacuum. As has so often being the case in supposedly global fight against ISIL.

Russia and Turkey met, in Russia, to discuss the issue on October 22nd 2019 (22/10/19)

Sadly with the US still failing to impose meaningful sanctions on Turkey Russia was limited in what it could do.

Following a further 150 hour pause, to allow the SDF to withdraw, Russia agreed to allow Erdogan to fully establish his 15,160kmsq (9,100milesq) Danzig zone. Under the control of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the irregular United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The only concession being that Russia would also conduct patrols within the Danzig zone. Which historians will probably agree sounds appropriate.

Erdogan's stated aim in creating this Danzig zone is to cleanse it of its indigenous Kurdish population. Replacing them with Turks and Arabs.

A repetition of the Arabization policies of successive Syrian governments and of Turkey's actions in both the Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton areas.

This is a clear example of Ethnic Cleansing. A high Crime Against Humanity under Article 7(1)(d) of the Rome Statute of 1998.

Aside from its horrifying humanitarian implications the strategic failure of allowing Erdogan to establish this Danzig zone should be obvious to all.

Particularly now what Erdogan means by; "Safe Zone" has been called into sharp focus by this weekend's Operation Mueller.

Operation Mueller: This is the US Special Operations Force (SOF) raid to capture, kill or definitely kill Ibrahim Ali al-Badri.

More commonly known by his pseudonym Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Who took over from Abu Omar al-Baghdadi (Hamid al-Zawi). The founder of ISIL.

Officially the mission was named in honour of Kayla Mueller. An American woman who was taken hostage and ultimately executed by ISIL.

The raid took place over the night of October 26th 2019 (26/10/19). Into the morning of October 27th 2019 (27/10/19). It was carried out against an ISIL compound close to the Syrian village of Bashira.

Sitting in the foothills of Mount Bashira the village is located in the Sudetenland area of Syria.

It stands around 6km (4 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.

It also stands around 10km (6 miles) south-west of the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area. Which marks the dividing line between the Sudetenland area and the Afrin Canton areas.

This Atmeh-Salwa Access Area is the first place that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) established their network of Control Points. Starting in October 2017. It remains the most densely populated area of these Turkish bases.

Due to the 2012 US raid to kill Osama bin Laden I think we all have a vague idea of what a SOF raid involves. Roughly two dozen operators flying in by helicopter onto a target under cover of darkness.

This has certainly become a very familiar phenomenon in the Shangri-La area. A couple of mysterious helicopters fly in. There's a short but intense exchange of gunfire. Then the helicopters mysteriously disappear again.

What movies like; "Zero Dark Thirty" often forget to mention though is that these two dozen operators are backed by a Quick Reaction Force (QRF). A sort of 911 the SOF's can call upon if things start to go wrong.

The composition of a QRF is very much mission specific. An Iraqi QRF was actually deployed in the Battle of Mosul. It fought a weeks long mechanised campaign in the western half of the city.

Generally though a QRF is made up of around 100 Commando troops. Deployed from large rotary wing aircraft. Like a Chinook or Osprey. They are backed by multiple helicopter gunships. Such as the Apache.

They can also be backed by fixed wing gunships. Something like Spectre, Spooky or Ghostrider gunship. An AC-130 Hercules equipped with a 20mm rotary cannon (minigun), a 40mm cannon and a 105mm howitzer. Basically a flying artillery battalion.

A US QRF can also call on traditional air support. Fighter jets capable of dropping Paveway bombs and Hellfire missiles.

Operation Mueller saw a battalion of Commando forces deployed in eight large rotary wing aircraft. Backed by Apache and AC-130 gunships. It ended with the ISIL compound being bombed into dust.

So initially it looked as though the SOF raid had failed. Causing the QRF to be deployed.

It turns out though that while it was led by SOF's Operation Mueller was actually planned as a commando raid. Simply the military planners had decided to go in that hard as their starting point. Which does make you wonder what the QRF option was.

The reason for this decision was that the raid was being carried out against a large, heavily fortified ISIL compound. Complete with multiple rings of defences and a complex, underground bunker system.

Once al-Badri/al-Baghdadi had been killed and its forces successfully withdrawn the US then bombed the large, heavily fortified ISIL compound. To destroy it and prevent it from being used by ISIL or any other armed group.

The large, heavily fortified ISIL compound which stood around 6km (4 miles) from the Turkish border and around 10km (6 miles) from a Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) base.

In one of Erdogan's "Safe Zones."



19:50 on 28/10/19 (UK date).

The Letter Boris Should Now Sign.

In June 2016 the British people voted to Leave the European Union (EU). In the largest democratic exercise to ever take place in the UK.

In the three years since then a group of roughly 300 British MP's have tried to thwart this Brexit. Desperate to keep Britain within the EU. At any cost.

Their latest wheeze has been The European Union (Withdrawal) (No 6) Bill.

Authored by Labour's Hilary Benn this is sometimes known as the Benn Bill, the Benn Act or the Act of Surrender.

Regardless of what it is called it reveals the reason why those 300 MP's are desperate to keep Britain within the EU.

Since Britain joined what became the EU in British MP's or lawmakers have had very little role in making British laws.

Instead new laws are recommended by the EU Parliament. Introduced by the EU Commission. Then passed by the EU Council. Finally they are automatically turned into British laws through the mechanism of the European Communities Act of 1972.

So it hasn't mattered if British MP's are complete failures at representing the interests of the British people. The EU will always been on hand to bail them out and let them keep picking up the pay cheques.

Over the course of the last, nearly 50 years, this absence of responsibility has created a current crop of British MP's who are simply lacking the talent and skills needed to draft and pass even basic legislation.

The Benn Bill is a prime example of this complete lack of ability.

The intention of the Benn Bill was to maintain the status quo. To keep Britain's relationship with the EU the same. Regardless of what voters may think.

Instead though it dramatically alters Britain's relationship with the EU. Significantly removing power from the British Monarch, Parliament and voters and placing it in the hands of the EU.

For example it surrenders Britain's power to select the EU Commissioners who introduce new laws.

It surrenders Britain's power to veto the passing of those new laws by the EU Council.

It surrenders Britain's power to prevent those new EU laws becoming British laws by revoking the 1972 European Communities Act.

Something which is now tied to Britain leaving the EU. If Brexit is delayed then the European Communities Act remains in force for the duration of any extension.

The Benn Bill also, obviously, surrenders Britain's power to Leave the EU.

By surrendering Britain's power to Leave the EU the Benn Bill also surrenders Britain's ability to veto the next EU budget. Let alone Britain's right not to contribute to that EU budget.

Negotiations over the next EU budget cycle begin, really, on November 1st 2019 (1/11/19). Once committed to that new budget cycle will last until 2028.

Despite surrendering all of these British powers to the EU the Benn Bill still manages to fail in its primary objective. To extend Britain's membership of the EU until, at least, January 31st 2020 (31/1/20).

Although it requires Britain to seek an extension it also requires Britain to attach conditions to that extension. In order to protect Britain's interests. It is impossible for the EU to meet those conditions.

Take for example the issue of EU Commissioners. Particularly the President of the EU Commission.

In May 2019 elections were held for the EU Parliament. One of the new EU Parliament's first tasks would be to confirm the EU Commissioners appointed by the existing EU Council.

The EU attempted to add the illusion of democracy to this process. By nominating to candidates for the President of the EU Commission. So the pro-EU left nominated Frans Timmermans while the pro-EU right nominated Jan Zahradil.

These two candidates then fought something of a faux election campaign, complete with televised debates, alongside the EU Parliament election campaign. Despite the fact they no-one would get to vote them into a job they are appointed to.

However in March 2019 current EU Council President Donald Tusk decided to force Britain to stay in the EU for another six months. A move that forced Britain to participate in the elections for the EU Parliament.

In doing this Donald Tusk thought he was striking a victorious blow for supporters of the EU everywhere.

What Tusk actually did was trigger a massive backlash against his and the EU's utter contempt for democracy.

The result was a surge in support for anti-EU parties at the election for the EU Parliament. This caused the pro-EU left and pro-EU right to lose the majority they have always held in the EU Parliament.

With no majority neither the pro-EU left nor the pro-EU right were able force through their candidate for President of the EU Commission.

Instead the job ended up going to Germany's Ursula von der Leyen. Who had not only not participated in the faux election campaign but was only suggested as a candidate moments before being appointed.

The purpose of extending Britain's membership of the EU until October 31st 2019 (31/10/19) was that it would be unaffected by Ursula von der Leyen and the other EU Commissioners. Who would start work on November 1st 2019 (1/11/19). As such Britain did not participate in their selection.

If Britain is going to still be an EU member of November 1st 2019 (1/11/19) then it will have to have its say on the EU Commissioners who will govern it. Meaning that the entire process will have to be reopened.

So the letter current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs to send to the EU to comply with the Benn Bill is as follows;

Dear Donald.

Enclosed is a copy of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 6) Act. This requires me to write to you requesting an extension to the Article 50 process until January 31st 2020 (31/1/20).

Therefore I am requesting an extension to the Article 50 process until that date. However January 31st 2020 (31/1/20) is the only date that an extension is being sought for. No alternative dates are being sought or will be considered.

I'm sure that I do not need to remind you that the EU Council is legally forbidden from offering or imposing an extension to the Article 50 process which has not been sought.

Alongside my obligations under the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 6) Act I also have a wider obligation to protect the rights and freedoms of the British people.

In order to meet those obligations the extension of the Article 50 process is sought only on the basis of the EU Council agreeing to fully meet the following conditions.

1. The extension beyond October 31st 2019 (31/10/19) will bind Britain to the decisions EU Commissioners who take up office on November 1st 2019 (1/11/19). Therefore the process of appointing those EU Commissioners must be re-opened. In order to allow Britain to exercise its full rights to participate. Include the right to exercise its veto.

2. Throughout the Article 50 process Britain has waived its right to participate in the EU Council for matters which do not directly relate to that process. This was done on an understanding that Britain would leave the EU on March 29th 2019 (29/3/19). Therefore would not be bound by new laws and rules passed by the EU Council.

The extension beyond October 31st 2019 (31/10/19) means that Britain is now to be bound by new laws and rules passed by the EU Council.

Therefore Britain's rights to participate in the EU Council, including its veto, must be  fully and retroactively restored.

3. The extension beyond October 31st 2019 (31/10/19) leaves Britain as a full EU member as the EU begins negotiations over its new budget cycle.

Britain must enjoy its full rights, including its veto, to participate in this process. Furthermore Britain will have to be granted the further unique right not to contribute any money at all to the new EU budget cycle.

4. Extending the Article 50 process places significant financial burdens on Britain. Including and beyond its current contributions to the existing EU budget cycle. I myself have estimated these costs to be GB£1bn per week.

Therefore Britain must immediately end all of its financial contributions to the EU.

Furthermore the EU must compensate Britain for the continued cost of extending the Article 50 process. At a figure of GB£1bn per week. Backdated to March 29th 2019 (29/3/19).

I am copying this letter to Presidents Juncker and Sassoli.

Yours sincerely,

Boris Johnson.  


16:10 on 23/10/19 (UK date).



 

Trump Threw a Tantrum.

That is the sole and only reason the US now finds itself in full retreat from ISIL.

America has never had thousands of troops in Syria.

Tens of American troops were never being killed in Syria.

Hundreds of American troops were never being maimed in Syria.

America has never been spending billions, let alone trillions of dollars in Syria.

The was only one, small cost left for America to totally defeat ISIL.

Trump personally, through phone calls etc, had to exert diplomatic pressure on Erdogan to accept that ISIL had been defeated.

Trump decided that tiny bit of effort was beneath him and threw a tantrum.

As a result NATO now has no option other than to go to war with its former member Turkey.

That war can happen when Erdogan reaches Damascus.

It can happen when Erdogan reaches Ramallah.

It can happen when Erdogan reaches Jerusalem.

It can happen when Erdogan reaches Cairo.

It can happen when Erdogan reaches Benghazi.

But it is inevitable that it will have to happen.

It's better it happens now when then threat is still relatively small.

Because Trump's tantrum has been the very definition of a false economy.


18:40 on 14/10/19 (UK Date).

Edited at around 22:10 on 17/10/19 (UK date) to add;

Trump's October 6th (6/10/19) tantrum gave Turkey's Erdogan permission to invade & occupy roughly 15,160kmsq (9,100milesq) of Syria.

Long under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) this area has been operationally designated; "Shangri-La."

After 8 days of fighting Erdogan's forces now occupy roughly 15,160kmsq (9,100milessq) of Shangri-La.

Today Trump is seriously trying convince us that he has forced Erdogan to accept a ceasefire.

I'm sure though Erdogan's forces will stop there.

After all that's what we said when Erdogan's forces invaded & occupied the Garvaghy Road area of Syria.

That's what we said when Erdogan's forces invaded &occupied the Afrin Canton area of Syria.

That's what we said when Erdogan's forces invaded & occupied the Sudetenland area of Syria.