Yesterday (29/11/17) US President Donald Trump re-Tweeted several Tweets by the deputy leader of the Britain First group Jayda Fransen. This is not the first time that Ms Fransen has been in the news of late.
On November 18th (18/11/17) Ms Fransen was arrested for using threatening, abusive or insulting words contrary to the Public Order Act. Although Fransen's arrest took place in Bromley, South East London it was carried out by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) who took her into custody in Belfast.
Ms Fransen's arrest occurred at a time when Britain was being very loud and disruptive. They were being disruptive in negotiations about leaving the EU, disruptive in the COP23 Climate Change negotiations and disruptive in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
For example of November 12th (12/11/17) a pipebomb-type Improvised Explosive Device (IED) was discovered at a war memorial in Omagh in Northern Ireland. This invoked memories of the August 15th 1998 (15/8/17) Omagh bombing which killed 28.
The 1998 Omagh bombing was carried out by the British security services. The hope was that it would be blamed on Republican terror groups - specifically the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). That would create a public backlash that would derail the Good Friday peace agreement.
The Omagh bombing was referenced here because of something similar the Turkish security services had done. They created a terrorist group called the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK). The hope was that people would believe that TAK was a Kurdish group so their attacks would cause a public backlash that would block a Good Friday style peace agreement with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
As I've said before the PKK existed as part of the; "Arc of Resistance." These were a network of armed groups backed by the Soviet Union to destabilise the NATO nations during the Cold War. Alongside the PKK you had Irish Republican groups like the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) and to a lesser extent the PIRA.
The NATO nations obviously maintained similar groups to destabilise Soviet Bloc nations. However under what was termed; "Operation Gladio" they also established a network of fascist groups to fight the Arc of Resistance groups.
In Turkey the Gladio group to counter the PKK was the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) or more specifically their paramilitary wing the; "Grey Wolves." It was the MHP/Grey Wolves who created TAK.
Within Northern Ireland groups like the PIRA and the INLA were countered by Loyalist groups such as the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) and the Ulster Defence Force (UDF).
However on the British mainland a Gladio group was formed to counter supporters of Irish Republicans and other leftwing groups like Communists and Anarchists. This group was Combat 18. The "1" and "8" in their name refer to the letters "A" and "H" as in Adolf Hitler.
Combat 18 were a clandestine network of Police Officers, Prison Officers and football hooligans used to violently suppress leftwing activists. They generally did this through seemingly isolated beatings and murders. However in 1999 one of their supporters David Copeland waged a 13 day long bombing campaign in London targeting ethnic minorities and the gay community.
As a clandestine group Combat 18 were never meant to officially exist and certainly didn't have a political wing like the Irish Republican Socialist Party (IRSP) were closely linked to the INLA. However through their shared Nazi ideology the political party closest to Combat 18 were the British National Party (BNP).
Jayda Fransen's Britain First group is an offshoot of the BNP.
Ms Fransen's arrest related to a march held in Belfast on August 6th 2017 (6/8/17) under the banner; "Northern Ireland Against Terrorism." Officially this was being held to protest Islamist terrorism.
However Belfast is a very strange place to protest Islamist terrorism. Belfast's Muslim population is so low that I think the main Mosque is just some guy's house. It's as if Muslims have taken one look at the city and decided that it is far too sectarian even for them.
Through its extensive use of the British Union flag and occurring during the traditional Loyalist marching season the Britain First march was much more a celebration of the links between the British Gladio groups like the LVF and Combat 18. The terrorism being united against was Republican terrorism.
As such Ms Fransen's arrest could be viewed as Britain opposing Gladio groups like Combat 18, the LVF and the MHP. The MHP's Grey Wolves are very active in Syria where they are supporting ISIL.
Both Fransen's arrest and the Omagh pipebomb were preceded by the November 8th (8/11/17) resignation/firing of Secretary of State (senior minister) for International Development Priti Patel. This was in response to demands by the opposition Labour Party after it had been revealed that Ms Patel had been having off-the-books, back-channel meetings with Israeli officials.
Those Labour calls came at an extremely embarrassing time. What Ms Patel was discussing with Israel was an Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam offensive to ethnically cleanse the Druze religious minority from the Syrian Golan Heights. The Army of Islam were being aided in this effort by the Syrian (sic) Civil Defence/White Helmets group.
One of the most high profile supporters of the White Helmets terror group was the British Labour MP Jo Cox. In June 2016 Jo Cox was eliminated by the British security services as her support for an Al Qaeda group constituted a threat to national security.
The instrument of Jo Cox's demise was a man named Tommy Mair. In killing her he shouted; "Put Britain First!" In an effort to prevent the police investigation into Jo Cox's death turning into an investigation into Labour's support for Al Qaeda the Labour Party tried claiming that Mr Mair was a member of Britain First. They also tried claiming he was a member of - I think - the LVF.
At the time the Priti Patel saga was going on the British Queen was handing out medals over the killing of Jo Cox. Officially the medal was awarded to the widow of a man who tried and failed to save Jo Cox's life. The joke was that if he succeeded he certainly wouldn't have got a medal from Britain.
As such Ms Fransen's arrest could be interpreted as Britain changing its position on the White Helmets and an organisation blamed for the elimination of their main fundraiser in the UK. It came just days after the Queen handed out more medals to police officers involved in the case. On that occasion the Queen's official Twitter account made sure to point out that Jo Cox had been "murdered" rather than "lawfully killed."
Then of course there is the fact that due to old Cold War links I've been using the Northern Irish Troubles as a coded way to talk about the fight against ISIL and their associates.
When I started doing this four years ago it was quite funny and gave Britain something of an advantage. After they know far more about the Northern Irish Troubles then the Turks, the Syrians, the Iraqis and even the Americans.
However since then Britain has voted to leave the EU. This is led to tense discussions over the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. In that context references to the Northern Irish Troubles have got less funny.
Bromley is close to where I live in South London. So police flying in from Belfast to make arrests for insulting and offensive behaviour did make it sound as though I was in a little bit of trouble.
Generally though Jayda Fransen's arrest was just a noisemaker. It spreads confusion by bringing up lots of inflammatory issues without making any firm statements one way or the other.
That's why I dismissed it. To the point I'd actually forgotten about it when writing up the rest of Britain's disruptive period.
17:50 on 30/11/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 19:50 on 1/12/17 (UK date) to add;
For four years I've been telling my mother that I'm too busy to visit. So now things are less busy I visited on Wednesday (29/11/17) returning today. After all UN sponsorship - albeit illegal - means that everyone has observer status to the Geneva Process on Syria.
It must be said that as guard dogs go the Commander-in-Chief of the World's largest military isn't that bad.
Thursday, 30 November 2017
Saturday, 25 November 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 41, Week 3, Day 2.
This must be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/operation-featherweight-month-41-week-3.html
You really must read that. Apparently it's so explosive it shut down the main Oxford Street shopping district of Britain's capital for a couple of hours yesterday.
Well the British security services and the BBC were red flashing messages urging people to seek shelter and not to attempt to travel.
This is while it was worked out whether reports of gunshots were an Islamist terror attack or just some of Obama's core constituents getting over excited during the Black Friday sales. It turns out there weren't even any gunshots.
In the fight against ISIL the "Black Friday" was Friday November 13th 2015 (13/11/15). Here ISIL massacred 130 civilians on the streets of Paris, France. Deep behind the accepted frontlines in Syria and Iraq.
Disproving absolutely no stereotypes France responded to this by immediately issuing its articles of surrender to ISIL and its supporters. This took the form of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution (R) 2249 (2015).
The fight against ISIL and their associates is authorised under UNSCR 2170 (2014). This is issued under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
Chapter 7 resolutions not only allow nations to take military action against designated nations/groups it actually obligates them to do everything in their power to defeat the designated entities.
UNSCR 2249 (2015) attempts to loosen that obligation on nations to defeat ISIL and their associates. It now only requires nations to combat ISIL and their associates if they so wish.
UNSCR 2249 (2015) also calls for the overthrow of Syria's government. Something it is prevented from doing under the preamble of the UN Charter. As such UNSCR 2249 (2015) has no validity whatsoever.
Britain's position is that it continues to support this Black Friday Rule.
While it was not Erdogan's intention Talal Silo's noble and ideological 'choice' to defect from the SDF to Turkey highlighted another significant problem facing the SDF.
ISIL were created in 2011. Primarily by Turkey, Qatar and the US under former President Barack Obama.
The purpose was for ISIL to overthrow Syria's secular government and replace it with a Sunni Islamist puppet regime. This regime would rule Syria's territory as a part of the New Ottoman Empire Erdogan has long sought.
This is not a matter for discussion. It is simply a fact. The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has published documents detailing exactly what it did to help create ISIL and why.
In August 2014 ISIL conducted a genocide in and around the northern Iraq town of Sinjar/Shingal. This made the ISIL brand completely toxic. Particularly for the US.
So the US set out to simply retire the ISIL brand. The intention being to replace it with a similar Sunni Islamist force that would operate under a name that was more acceptable to the US electorate.
In this effort the SDF and particularly the YPG have presented a major barrier to the US' plans.
The SDF are genuinely committed to defeating ISIL and its ideological partners. Also as secular group they represent the best opportunity to produce a viable alternative to Syria's current secular government.
In November 2016 former US President Obama set in motion a plan to destroy the SDF once and for all.
The first part of this plan was the Wrath of Euphrates operation. The objective was to see particularly the YPG element of the SDF destroyed in an losing battle for Raqqa.
The second part of the plan was to establish a rival command structure within the SDF. Formed of Sunni Arab fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) this was name the Syrian Arab Council (SAC).
The hope was that with the SDF wiped out in defeat at the battle of Raqqa the SAC would step in an pledge allegiance to Erdogan and Turkey. Thus replacing ISIL as the brand to overthrow Syria's secular government.
Obviously in January 2017 Obama was replaced as US President. The SDF went on to win the battle of Raqqa.
Despite this though the US has still not come to its senses and realised the overthrow of the Syrian government is not an acceptable let alone a desirable outcome.
In its efforts to create the SAC the US forced the SDF to accept as members Sunni Arab groups that are very much at odds with the groups ideology.
One of these I've discussed before is the self-proclaimed Syrian Elite Forces (SEF). They fought alongside ISIL in Deir-ez-Zour City until the two groups fell out over the spoils of war.
Just weeks after being forced on the coalition the SEF were given the task of leading the SDF's Cizre Storm operation. The moment they arrived at Deir-ez-Zour City the SEF refused to advance any further. Instead they demanded CJTFOIR support in resuming their alliance with ISIL against the Syrians.
While the US was denying support to the SDF it was training Sunni Islamist fragments of the FSA at a desert base close to al-Tanf. For dubious reasons this base has been designated; "Bobby Sands."
On June 9th (9/6/17) the Syrians own anti-ISIL operations saw them arrive at al-Tanf. This left the US with the problem of what to do with the FSA fragments it had stationed at the Bobby Sands base.
One group in particular was the Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa. They are not to be confused with Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa who have been with the SDF since 2015.
The US transported this Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa to Hasakah in an effort to force them to join the SDF.
Upon arrival in Hasakah Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa immediately renamed themselves Harakat al-Qiyam/(roughly) Uprising Movement and declared war on the SDF.
From mid-October 2017 onwards Harakat al-Qiyam have claimed multiple assassinations of senior SDF figures in and around Hasakah.
On November 2nd (2/11/17) and November 5th (5/11/17) Harakat al-Qiyam also claimed attacks in Manbij including the attempted assassination of the SDF leader Abu Abel. Manbij sits on the border between SDF controlled Shangri-La and Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road. It is believed that Harakat al-Qiyam received Turkish support from Jarablus in these attacks.
On November 10th (10/11/17) there was a big VBIED attack just south of Hasakah. ISIL have claimed this attack and also claimed that 53 members of the SDF were killed. Due to the increased activity of Harakat al-Qiyam though there is a suspicion that they in fact carried out the attack.
With the US continuing to mistake the fight against ISIL as nothing more than a re-branding exercise they are desperate for the big, flag waving moment when they can declare ISIL defeated. They certainly don't want that moment to go to the Syrians.
So while the Syrians have been fighting to liberate ISIL from Abu Kamal - the last population centre they hold - the US have been flying ISIL protection missions over the town. The objective has been to put planes in the way to stop the Syrians and the Russians destroying ISIL vehicles as they move around.
The US has attempted to justify this by seizing onto the BBC World Service "Raqqa's Dirty Secret" expose. They claim that rather then assisting ISIL in holding onto Abu Kamal they are trying to prevent Syria and Russia committing war crimes by attacking surrendering fighters.
On November 14th (14/11/17) Russia called out the US on these ISIL protection flights. In doing so they published on social media images that they claimed showed the US operation. Those images were in fact taken from a computer game I think called; "AC130 Gunship Simulator."
Following Obama been replaced as US President sections of the US media have been in a frenzy of accusing Russia of distributing; "Fake News."
There was also a "Fake News" element to yesterday evening events in Oxford Street.
In the UK there is a low-rent popstar by the name of Olly Murs. He was caught up in events on Oxford Street. This led to him sending out a series of panicked Tweets to his 7.8 million followers telling them there was a terror attack underway. This massively increased the hysteria surrounding what was a non-event.
This comes just days after a series of Labour Party supporting celebrities sent out messages to their followers accusing the wicked Conservative government of claiming that animals don't have feelings. A major slur in a nation of pet lovers like Britain. It turns out of course that this was nothing but Fake News.
The entire western coverage of the conflict in Syria is Fake News.
There has been no popular uprising to topple a dictator. One of Syria's neighbours has merely decided it wishes to invade the nation in order to seize its territory.
In order to do this Erdogan established a network of spies posing as journalists and "citizen journalists" to spread Fake News or propaganda in the hope of toppling the Syrian government.
One of the worst offenders in this area are the Turkish based "Syrian Civil Defence (White Helmets)" group.
The White Helmet's job is to create and distribute atrocity propaganda. These were the guys who managed to film themselves taking patients suffering from Sarin exposure to hospital some two hours before the Syrians supposedly used Sarin against Khan Shiekhoun back in April 2017.
Probably the most famous use of computer generated imagery comes from ISIL themselves. One of their execution videos from early 2015 showed footage purporting to be from one of their great battle field victories. It was actually computer effects from the 2013 Russian movie; "Stalingrad."
So it seems the US' ISIL protection flights have been rather excellently trolled by Russia then.
Talal Silo's 'defection' was not the only product of Erdogan's agitation in response the events in Omagh and the BBC World Service "Raqqa's Dirty Secret" expose however.
Directly to the west of Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road you have another area under SDF control. This is known as; "Afrin Canton." Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have another area under Turkish occupation. This is known as; "The Sudetenland."
Over the past two weeks Turkish forces in both Garvaghy Road and the Sudetenland have massively increased their attacks on the SDF in Afrin Canton.
Yesterday (24/11/17) Erdogan's forces established an outpost inside Afrin Canton. This was done with the support of the Al Qaeda affiliate the Movement of Nour al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki.
Erdogan of course wishes to conquer Syria in order to establish his version of the Ottoman Empire. The original Ottoman Empire was established by defeating the Mamluk Empire were based in what is now Egypt.
It almost goes without saying then that Erdogan has also been trying to conquer Egypt. His most recent effort was the absolutely horrific attack on a Mosque in the Sinai Peninsula yesterday (24/11/17). This murdered at least 305 civilians.
As the worst terror attack in Egypt's history I think that really deserves a post in its own right.
In the meantime though whether or not you know the fancy terms every nation functions on a variation of what the political philosopher John Locke termed; "The Social Contract."
At its most basic level this involves a person giving up part of their freedom to the government. Say your freedom to just kill anyone who annoys you. In return the government gives the person protection. Say protection from being killed by anyone you happen to have annoyed.
Mass casualty terror attacks like this tear a massive hole in that social contract. This one has been carried out to undermine public faith in the Egyptian government. The hope being this will trigger a big, beautiful colour revolution that will sweep another Erdogan puppet like Morsi into power.
It also fits in with a pattern of targeting Egypt's religious minorities. Back in April 2017 there was the bombing of two Coptic Christian Churches during the most important week in the Christian calender.
People have this perception of Islam of this violent, backward medieval religion. That is true only of a small sub-section of Islam practised by Salafi Sunnis. Groups such as ISIL, Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Mosque attacked yesterday (24/11/17) belonged to Shia Sufi Muslims. These are the polar opposite to Salafi Sunnis.
In they way their practice their religion Sufis are more like Hindus or Buddhists. They are completely opposed to violence and consider the Caliphate to be a state of mind similar to Nirvana rather than a physical place.
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite. They are probably the most hippy, dippy branch of Sufi Islam.
By carrying out an attack like this the Salafi Sunnis are leaving the Egyptian government no option other than to crack down hard on them.
The Salafi Sunnis plan is that this will allow them to portray the Egyptian government as persecuting them as the "True Muslims" in order to protect the "Infidels."
The hope being this will trigger a big, beautiful colour revolution that will sweep another Erdogan puppet like Morsi into power.
17:20 on 25/11/17 (UK date).
You really must read that. Apparently it's so explosive it shut down the main Oxford Street shopping district of Britain's capital for a couple of hours yesterday.
Well the British security services and the BBC were red flashing messages urging people to seek shelter and not to attempt to travel.
This is while it was worked out whether reports of gunshots were an Islamist terror attack or just some of Obama's core constituents getting over excited during the Black Friday sales. It turns out there weren't even any gunshots.
In the fight against ISIL the "Black Friday" was Friday November 13th 2015 (13/11/15). Here ISIL massacred 130 civilians on the streets of Paris, France. Deep behind the accepted frontlines in Syria and Iraq.
Disproving absolutely no stereotypes France responded to this by immediately issuing its articles of surrender to ISIL and its supporters. This took the form of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution (R) 2249 (2015).
The fight against ISIL and their associates is authorised under UNSCR 2170 (2014). This is issued under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
Chapter 7 resolutions not only allow nations to take military action against designated nations/groups it actually obligates them to do everything in their power to defeat the designated entities.
UNSCR 2249 (2015) attempts to loosen that obligation on nations to defeat ISIL and their associates. It now only requires nations to combat ISIL and their associates if they so wish.
UNSCR 2249 (2015) also calls for the overthrow of Syria's government. Something it is prevented from doing under the preamble of the UN Charter. As such UNSCR 2249 (2015) has no validity whatsoever.
Britain's position is that it continues to support this Black Friday Rule.
While it was not Erdogan's intention Talal Silo's noble and ideological 'choice' to defect from the SDF to Turkey highlighted another significant problem facing the SDF.
ISIL were created in 2011. Primarily by Turkey, Qatar and the US under former President Barack Obama.
The purpose was for ISIL to overthrow Syria's secular government and replace it with a Sunni Islamist puppet regime. This regime would rule Syria's territory as a part of the New Ottoman Empire Erdogan has long sought.
This is not a matter for discussion. It is simply a fact. The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has published documents detailing exactly what it did to help create ISIL and why.
In August 2014 ISIL conducted a genocide in and around the northern Iraq town of Sinjar/Shingal. This made the ISIL brand completely toxic. Particularly for the US.
So the US set out to simply retire the ISIL brand. The intention being to replace it with a similar Sunni Islamist force that would operate under a name that was more acceptable to the US electorate.
In this effort the SDF and particularly the YPG have presented a major barrier to the US' plans.
The SDF are genuinely committed to defeating ISIL and its ideological partners. Also as secular group they represent the best opportunity to produce a viable alternative to Syria's current secular government.
In November 2016 former US President Obama set in motion a plan to destroy the SDF once and for all.
The first part of this plan was the Wrath of Euphrates operation. The objective was to see particularly the YPG element of the SDF destroyed in an losing battle for Raqqa.
The second part of the plan was to establish a rival command structure within the SDF. Formed of Sunni Arab fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) this was name the Syrian Arab Council (SAC).
The hope was that with the SDF wiped out in defeat at the battle of Raqqa the SAC would step in an pledge allegiance to Erdogan and Turkey. Thus replacing ISIL as the brand to overthrow Syria's secular government.
Obviously in January 2017 Obama was replaced as US President. The SDF went on to win the battle of Raqqa.
Despite this though the US has still not come to its senses and realised the overthrow of the Syrian government is not an acceptable let alone a desirable outcome.
In its efforts to create the SAC the US forced the SDF to accept as members Sunni Arab groups that are very much at odds with the groups ideology.
One of these I've discussed before is the self-proclaimed Syrian Elite Forces (SEF). They fought alongside ISIL in Deir-ez-Zour City until the two groups fell out over the spoils of war.
Just weeks after being forced on the coalition the SEF were given the task of leading the SDF's Cizre Storm operation. The moment they arrived at Deir-ez-Zour City the SEF refused to advance any further. Instead they demanded CJTFOIR support in resuming their alliance with ISIL against the Syrians.
While the US was denying support to the SDF it was training Sunni Islamist fragments of the FSA at a desert base close to al-Tanf. For dubious reasons this base has been designated; "Bobby Sands."
On June 9th (9/6/17) the Syrians own anti-ISIL operations saw them arrive at al-Tanf. This left the US with the problem of what to do with the FSA fragments it had stationed at the Bobby Sands base.
One group in particular was the Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa. They are not to be confused with Front of Raqqa Revolutionaries/Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa who have been with the SDF since 2015.
The US transported this Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa to Hasakah in an effort to force them to join the SDF.
Upon arrival in Hasakah Jabhat Thuwar al-Raqqa immediately renamed themselves Harakat al-Qiyam/(roughly) Uprising Movement and declared war on the SDF.
From mid-October 2017 onwards Harakat al-Qiyam have claimed multiple assassinations of senior SDF figures in and around Hasakah.
On November 2nd (2/11/17) and November 5th (5/11/17) Harakat al-Qiyam also claimed attacks in Manbij including the attempted assassination of the SDF leader Abu Abel. Manbij sits on the border between SDF controlled Shangri-La and Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road. It is believed that Harakat al-Qiyam received Turkish support from Jarablus in these attacks.
On November 10th (10/11/17) there was a big VBIED attack just south of Hasakah. ISIL have claimed this attack and also claimed that 53 members of the SDF were killed. Due to the increased activity of Harakat al-Qiyam though there is a suspicion that they in fact carried out the attack.
With the US continuing to mistake the fight against ISIL as nothing more than a re-branding exercise they are desperate for the big, flag waving moment when they can declare ISIL defeated. They certainly don't want that moment to go to the Syrians.
So while the Syrians have been fighting to liberate ISIL from Abu Kamal - the last population centre they hold - the US have been flying ISIL protection missions over the town. The objective has been to put planes in the way to stop the Syrians and the Russians destroying ISIL vehicles as they move around.
The US has attempted to justify this by seizing onto the BBC World Service "Raqqa's Dirty Secret" expose. They claim that rather then assisting ISIL in holding onto Abu Kamal they are trying to prevent Syria and Russia committing war crimes by attacking surrendering fighters.
On November 14th (14/11/17) Russia called out the US on these ISIL protection flights. In doing so they published on social media images that they claimed showed the US operation. Those images were in fact taken from a computer game I think called; "AC130 Gunship Simulator."
Following Obama been replaced as US President sections of the US media have been in a frenzy of accusing Russia of distributing; "Fake News."
There was also a "Fake News" element to yesterday evening events in Oxford Street.
In the UK there is a low-rent popstar by the name of Olly Murs. He was caught up in events on Oxford Street. This led to him sending out a series of panicked Tweets to his 7.8 million followers telling them there was a terror attack underway. This massively increased the hysteria surrounding what was a non-event.
This comes just days after a series of Labour Party supporting celebrities sent out messages to their followers accusing the wicked Conservative government of claiming that animals don't have feelings. A major slur in a nation of pet lovers like Britain. It turns out of course that this was nothing but Fake News.
The entire western coverage of the conflict in Syria is Fake News.
There has been no popular uprising to topple a dictator. One of Syria's neighbours has merely decided it wishes to invade the nation in order to seize its territory.
In order to do this Erdogan established a network of spies posing as journalists and "citizen journalists" to spread Fake News or propaganda in the hope of toppling the Syrian government.
One of the worst offenders in this area are the Turkish based "Syrian Civil Defence (White Helmets)" group.
The White Helmet's job is to create and distribute atrocity propaganda. These were the guys who managed to film themselves taking patients suffering from Sarin exposure to hospital some two hours before the Syrians supposedly used Sarin against Khan Shiekhoun back in April 2017.
Probably the most famous use of computer generated imagery comes from ISIL themselves. One of their execution videos from early 2015 showed footage purporting to be from one of their great battle field victories. It was actually computer effects from the 2013 Russian movie; "Stalingrad."
So it seems the US' ISIL protection flights have been rather excellently trolled by Russia then.
Talal Silo's 'defection' was not the only product of Erdogan's agitation in response the events in Omagh and the BBC World Service "Raqqa's Dirty Secret" expose however.
Directly to the west of Turkish occupied Garvaghy Road you have another area under SDF control. This is known as; "Afrin Canton." Directly to the south of Afrin Canton you have another area under Turkish occupation. This is known as; "The Sudetenland."
Over the past two weeks Turkish forces in both Garvaghy Road and the Sudetenland have massively increased their attacks on the SDF in Afrin Canton.
Yesterday (24/11/17) Erdogan's forces established an outpost inside Afrin Canton. This was done with the support of the Al Qaeda affiliate the Movement of Nour al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki.
Erdogan of course wishes to conquer Syria in order to establish his version of the Ottoman Empire. The original Ottoman Empire was established by defeating the Mamluk Empire were based in what is now Egypt.
It almost goes without saying then that Erdogan has also been trying to conquer Egypt. His most recent effort was the absolutely horrific attack on a Mosque in the Sinai Peninsula yesterday (24/11/17). This murdered at least 305 civilians.
As the worst terror attack in Egypt's history I think that really deserves a post in its own right.
In the meantime though whether or not you know the fancy terms every nation functions on a variation of what the political philosopher John Locke termed; "The Social Contract."
At its most basic level this involves a person giving up part of their freedom to the government. Say your freedom to just kill anyone who annoys you. In return the government gives the person protection. Say protection from being killed by anyone you happen to have annoyed.
Mass casualty terror attacks like this tear a massive hole in that social contract. This one has been carried out to undermine public faith in the Egyptian government. The hope being this will trigger a big, beautiful colour revolution that will sweep another Erdogan puppet like Morsi into power.
It also fits in with a pattern of targeting Egypt's religious minorities. Back in April 2017 there was the bombing of two Coptic Christian Churches during the most important week in the Christian calender.
People have this perception of Islam of this violent, backward medieval religion. That is true only of a small sub-section of Islam practised by Salafi Sunnis. Groups such as ISIL, Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Mosque attacked yesterday (24/11/17) belonged to Shia Sufi Muslims. These are the polar opposite to Salafi Sunnis.
In they way their practice their religion Sufis are more like Hindus or Buddhists. They are completely opposed to violence and consider the Caliphate to be a state of mind similar to Nirvana rather than a physical place.
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite. They are probably the most hippy, dippy branch of Sufi Islam.
By carrying out an attack like this the Salafi Sunnis are leaving the Egyptian government no option other than to crack down hard on them.
The Salafi Sunnis plan is that this will allow them to portray the Egyptian government as persecuting them as the "True Muslims" in order to protect the "Infidels."
The hope being this will trigger a big, beautiful colour revolution that will sweep another Erdogan puppet like Morsi into power.
17:20 on 25/11/17 (UK date).
Friday, 24 November 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 41, Week 3, Day 1.
This should be read as a direct continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/operation-featherweight-month-41-week-2.html
The gains of the last two weeks have all occurred during a period in which Britain has been extremely disruptive.
It has been extremely disruptive in its negotiations on exiting the European Union (EU) "Brexit." It has been extremely disruptive in the COP23 Climate Change negotiations.
It almost goes without saying that Britain has also been extremely disruptive here.
What has allowed the Syrians to turn their focus fully onto ISIL has been the Astana Process. Formed in December 2016 this sees Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria meet periodically to discuss the conflict.
The fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process held on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17). This saw the creation of what are known as the; "Astana Zones." Within these zones fighting would be temporarily suspended between the Syrians and all armed groups which are not ISIL and at Turkey's insistence the SDF.
The US was granted observer status within the Astana Process back in January 2017. However despite being a member of CJTFOIR the UK remains excluded.
On November 8th (8/11/17) the British Secretary of State (Senior Minister) for International Development Priti Patel was fired/quit her job. This followed weeks on intense demands by the opposition Labour Party for her to be dismissed after it emerged she had been engaged in off-the-books, back-channel discussions with Israel.
The reason why Ms Patel had been holding these discussions with Israel is that Israel directly borders one of the key Astana Zones. After all this southern Astana Zone covering Deraa and Quneitra Provinces was introduced specifically to stop stray fire in the disputed Golan Heights area dragging Israel into the conflict.
The spectacle of the opposition forcing the dismissal of a government minister was intended to promote discussion about whether the Labour Party could bring down the minority Conservative government and replace it. This was particularly true at the Brexit negotiations.
Aside from using its existing relationships with nations such as Israel to peer into the Astana Process the UK has also been cozying up to the main Astana Parties in an effort to be granted observer status alongside the US.
Probably the key party in the Astana Process is Russia. On November 1st (1/11/17) the British Secretary of State for Defence Michael Fallon also quit his post.
Fallon was probably one of the most anti-Russian members of the British government. In his role in defence he has been an extremely vocal support of sanctions on Russia. The sanctions imposed to help ISIL win this war. I am honestly surprised he lasted as long as he did.
Another of the key parties within the Astana Process is Iran.
Britain's relationship with Iran has been extremely bad of late. The roots of the dispute between Britain and Iran can really be traced back to 1953 when Britain staged a Coup in Iran to overthrow the democratically elected President to replace him with a Monarch.
More recently the relationship between the two nations were soured by Britain's attempts to stage another Coup in Iran during the nation's 2009 elections.
Known as; "Project Green" this saw Britain establish a network of spies within Iran posing as journalists. Taking instruction from the BBC's World Service they were tasked in spreading propaganda or; "Fake News" in the hope of triggering a public uprising and the overthrow of the Iranian government in one of those big, beautiful colour revolutions.
Obviously this failed. So Britain attempted to try again at Iran's May 2017 election. However on this occasion Iran took preventative measures arresting one of the key facilitators of the British spy network - Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe - in April 2016.
Britain obviously wasn't going to admit that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was a key facilitator in their attempts to stage a Coup in Iran. So since her arrest they have lied claiming that she was innocent and conducted a publicity campaign to have her released by portraying Iranians as evil monsters. This has not improved the relationship between Britain and Iran.
On November 1st (1/11/17) the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Boris Johnson quietly confirmed to an obscure British Parliamentary committee that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was in fact a key facilitator in a British spy network. Her role was to train 'journalists' to spread propaganda and fake news during the May 2017 election.
In order to repair the relationship with Iran and hopefully gain access to the Astana Process the key was for Britain through Secretary Johnson to acknowledge that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was a spy. Once that had taken place I really didn't see any need for me to go piling in on top.
The British Labour Party did feel the need to pile in though. For the last 23 days they have been demanding that Secretary Johnson been dismissed from the government over his effort to keep Britain safe by gaining access to the Astana Process. Following Fallon and Patel they seem to think that one more and they'll be in government.
In their effort to prove to the British electorate that they are wholly unfit for government the Labour Party received some help from the intelligence services. They put them onto the fact that Britain owes Iran a GB £400m debt over a 1978 contract Britain has so far failed to honour.
This is a specific reference to the Brexit negotiations. In 2015 Britain signed a contract to pay around GB £90bn into the EU budget over seven years whether Britain remains an EU member or not. There is a faction within Britain which claims that because it is leaving they no longer have to pay. Those people are wrong.
To give you an idea of how wrong they are eventually this like the Iran contract will be decided by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). On Tuesday (21/11/17) Britain lost its seat on the ICJ. For the first time since it was founded in 1946. Out of the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal.
I challenge you to find a more effective way of discussing this then through the works of Judy Garland.
The other element of Britain's extremely disruptive behaviour was the release on November 13th (13/11/17) of a BBC World Service news expose entitled; "Raqqa's Dirty Secret." This related to an agreement done between the SDF and ISIL to bring an end to the battle for Raqqa.
In the final days of that battle the SDF found themselves in a situation where ISIL held two key positions in the city. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium.
In those locations ISIL held potentially tens of thousands of kidnapped civilians as human shields. Both locations had been rigged with demolition charges to destroy the buildings and kill all the hostages should the SDF attempt to raid them.
This created the very real possibility that the battle would end in not one but two civilian massacres either of which would make the September 4th 2004 (4/9/04) massacre at School Number One in Beslan, Russia seem tame by comparison.
In the Beslan massacre Chechen Islamist fighters seized a school taking over 1,100 people hostage of which 777 were children. Although the exact nature of the tragedy has long been subject to anti-Russian propaganda the siege ended with the school being blown up resulting in the deaths of at least 334 of the hostages.
Many of the ISIL fighters at Raqqa's National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium were the same Chechen Islamists who carried out the Beslan massacre.
The Beslan Massacre was so horrific that more than 13 years later I still have vivid images of it seared into my memory. In part that's because Britain's intelligence services used it as part of an effort to kill me. Or more accurately drive me to kill myself as part of a "Hands Off Assassination."
This involves putting huge pressure on the intended target by systematically destroying their entire life over a short, intense period. You then lift the pressure slightly to give the intended target time to reflect on all that they've lost.
During that period you ever so slightly introduce the notion of suicide into the target's mind through something like a well placed newstory or even something as simple as an advert on a bus passing by. You then sit back and watch as the target kills themselves.
Obviously no-one could ever be prosecuted for killing someone in this way. Even saying it out loud makes you sound crazy.
In the three week period running up to the Beslan Massacre I'd worked I think 21 consecutive days without a break. That obviously put pressure on my relationship with friends and family. With people at work seeming to be deliberately difficult every day seemed much harder than one before.
As the Beslan massacre was underway I got three consecutive days off. Immediately my cellphone and Internet connection stopped working. My bank accounts were also frozen meaning I couldn't buy food let alone go out with friends. All I could do was sit amongst the shattered ruins of my life endlessly watching the horrors of Beslan unfold on TV news.
This was the same technique used to kill British weapons inspector Dr David Kelly in July 2003. It was his "sexed-up" dossier on Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) which was used to justify the March 2003 invasion of Iraq.
In the two weeks prior to his death you could see Dr Kelly's life rapidly falling to pieces. He was exposed by the BBC leading to a whirlwind period which saw him splashed across every news outlet across the globe and dragged before British Parliamentary committees. He was then given a period of quiet reflection at his country home. Where he killed himself.
Needless to say this technique sometimes referred to as; "Assisted Suicide" remains controversial. Particularly as we're once again back in Iraq. It's often discussed in coded terms around the issue of euthanasia. Tony Nicklinson probably being the most famous British example recently.
The main revelation from the BBC's "Raqqa's Dirty Secret" expose was that the agreement had involved 4,000 people rather than "the 250 initially reported." I honestly do not know where Quentin Sommerville got this story from.
The details of the negotiation were obviously kept an closely guarded secret while they were ongoing. However the figure that was always rumoured was that it would involve around 4,000 people. I think the highest I heard was 4,750.
This was made up of one group of fighters who were local to Syria and Iraq but who were not members of the tribes indigenous to Raqqa and the surrounding area. These people would be sent to prison.
The second group was fighters who were members of those tribes. They were to be returned to their tribes.
Following the liberation of Mosul I talked about punishing low-level local ISIL fighters with a sort of probation system of monitoring. Although not perfect the monitoring system provided by the tribal system will be much more severe then that. Can you imagine having your mother-in-law as your probation officer.
The third much larger group was the wives and children of the fighters. ISIL practice multiple marriage so when you talk about an ISIL fighter's family you can easily be talking about five to ten people. This group were to be transferred to a sort of internment camp just outside Raqqa provided by the British charity Shelter Box.
When the deal went through the announcement was that 375 of the non-local tribal fighters had been taken to prison in Tabqa. The camp for the fighter's families is that large it can probably been seen from space.
So Quentin Sommerville and the BBC seem to have just completely made up this figure of 250.
The only interesting detail in this expose was the allegation that some foreign fighters had fled Raqqa to Turkey.
The BBC expose came out the day after the discovery on November 12th (12/11/17) of a Pipebomb type Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) at a war memorial in Omagh, Northern Ireland.
The August 15th 1998 (15/8/98) Omagh bombing was probably the most vicious False Flag terror attack Britain has ever experienced. I have vivid memories of that too seared into my mind.
The British intelligence services detonated a bomb on a crowded shopping street killing 29 and wounding 300 more. The hope was that the bombing would be blamed on the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) and the public backlash would derail the Good Friday peace agreement.
This is rather like how elements of the Turkish intelligence services loyal to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) created the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) group. In order to prevent a similar peace agreement between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In August 2016 Turkey formally and illegally invaded a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide stretch of northern Syria from Azaz/Kilis in the west to the Euphrates River in the east. As the invasion was conducted to keep Turkey's supply lines to ISIL open this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."
That is in reference to the Garvaghy Road in Drumcree, Northern Ireland. In July 1998 there was tense 10-day standoff between Republicans and Loyalists. The fact this stand-off didn't derail the Good Friday Agreement probably explains the Omagh bombing.
Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan clearly took this British news as a reference to Syria's Garvaghy Road.
So on November 16th (16/11/17) the SDF's spokesman Talal Silo suddenly defected to Turkey. Via the Garvaghy Road.
Talal Silo is/was a Turkmen member of the SDF. He belonged to the Turkmen Seljuq Brigades. I gather his decision to join Erdogan's illustrious cause had something to do with Turkish intelligence threatening to kill his entire family.
Much to my frustration at 17:15 on 24/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up tomorrow.
The gains of the last two weeks have all occurred during a period in which Britain has been extremely disruptive.
It has been extremely disruptive in its negotiations on exiting the European Union (EU) "Brexit." It has been extremely disruptive in the COP23 Climate Change negotiations.
It almost goes without saying that Britain has also been extremely disruptive here.
What has allowed the Syrians to turn their focus fully onto ISIL has been the Astana Process. Formed in December 2016 this sees Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria meet periodically to discuss the conflict.
The fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process held on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17). This saw the creation of what are known as the; "Astana Zones." Within these zones fighting would be temporarily suspended between the Syrians and all armed groups which are not ISIL and at Turkey's insistence the SDF.
The US was granted observer status within the Astana Process back in January 2017. However despite being a member of CJTFOIR the UK remains excluded.
On November 8th (8/11/17) the British Secretary of State (Senior Minister) for International Development Priti Patel was fired/quit her job. This followed weeks on intense demands by the opposition Labour Party for her to be dismissed after it emerged she had been engaged in off-the-books, back-channel discussions with Israel.
The reason why Ms Patel had been holding these discussions with Israel is that Israel directly borders one of the key Astana Zones. After all this southern Astana Zone covering Deraa and Quneitra Provinces was introduced specifically to stop stray fire in the disputed Golan Heights area dragging Israel into the conflict.
The spectacle of the opposition forcing the dismissal of a government minister was intended to promote discussion about whether the Labour Party could bring down the minority Conservative government and replace it. This was particularly true at the Brexit negotiations.
Aside from using its existing relationships with nations such as Israel to peer into the Astana Process the UK has also been cozying up to the main Astana Parties in an effort to be granted observer status alongside the US.
Probably the key party in the Astana Process is Russia. On November 1st (1/11/17) the British Secretary of State for Defence Michael Fallon also quit his post.
Fallon was probably one of the most anti-Russian members of the British government. In his role in defence he has been an extremely vocal support of sanctions on Russia. The sanctions imposed to help ISIL win this war. I am honestly surprised he lasted as long as he did.
Another of the key parties within the Astana Process is Iran.
Britain's relationship with Iran has been extremely bad of late. The roots of the dispute between Britain and Iran can really be traced back to 1953 when Britain staged a Coup in Iran to overthrow the democratically elected President to replace him with a Monarch.
More recently the relationship between the two nations were soured by Britain's attempts to stage another Coup in Iran during the nation's 2009 elections.
Known as; "Project Green" this saw Britain establish a network of spies within Iran posing as journalists. Taking instruction from the BBC's World Service they were tasked in spreading propaganda or; "Fake News" in the hope of triggering a public uprising and the overthrow of the Iranian government in one of those big, beautiful colour revolutions.
Obviously this failed. So Britain attempted to try again at Iran's May 2017 election. However on this occasion Iran took preventative measures arresting one of the key facilitators of the British spy network - Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe - in April 2016.
Britain obviously wasn't going to admit that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was a key facilitator in their attempts to stage a Coup in Iran. So since her arrest they have lied claiming that she was innocent and conducted a publicity campaign to have her released by portraying Iranians as evil monsters. This has not improved the relationship between Britain and Iran.
On November 1st (1/11/17) the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Boris Johnson quietly confirmed to an obscure British Parliamentary committee that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was in fact a key facilitator in a British spy network. Her role was to train 'journalists' to spread propaganda and fake news during the May 2017 election.
In order to repair the relationship with Iran and hopefully gain access to the Astana Process the key was for Britain through Secretary Johnson to acknowledge that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was a spy. Once that had taken place I really didn't see any need for me to go piling in on top.
The British Labour Party did feel the need to pile in though. For the last 23 days they have been demanding that Secretary Johnson been dismissed from the government over his effort to keep Britain safe by gaining access to the Astana Process. Following Fallon and Patel they seem to think that one more and they'll be in government.
In their effort to prove to the British electorate that they are wholly unfit for government the Labour Party received some help from the intelligence services. They put them onto the fact that Britain owes Iran a GB £400m debt over a 1978 contract Britain has so far failed to honour.
This is a specific reference to the Brexit negotiations. In 2015 Britain signed a contract to pay around GB £90bn into the EU budget over seven years whether Britain remains an EU member or not. There is a faction within Britain which claims that because it is leaving they no longer have to pay. Those people are wrong.
To give you an idea of how wrong they are eventually this like the Iran contract will be decided by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). On Tuesday (21/11/17) Britain lost its seat on the ICJ. For the first time since it was founded in 1946. Out of the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal.
I challenge you to find a more effective way of discussing this then through the works of Judy Garland.
The other element of Britain's extremely disruptive behaviour was the release on November 13th (13/11/17) of a BBC World Service news expose entitled; "Raqqa's Dirty Secret." This related to an agreement done between the SDF and ISIL to bring an end to the battle for Raqqa.
In the final days of that battle the SDF found themselves in a situation where ISIL held two key positions in the city. The National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium.
In those locations ISIL held potentially tens of thousands of kidnapped civilians as human shields. Both locations had been rigged with demolition charges to destroy the buildings and kill all the hostages should the SDF attempt to raid them.
This created the very real possibility that the battle would end in not one but two civilian massacres either of which would make the September 4th 2004 (4/9/04) massacre at School Number One in Beslan, Russia seem tame by comparison.
In the Beslan massacre Chechen Islamist fighters seized a school taking over 1,100 people hostage of which 777 were children. Although the exact nature of the tragedy has long been subject to anti-Russian propaganda the siege ended with the school being blown up resulting in the deaths of at least 334 of the hostages.
Many of the ISIL fighters at Raqqa's National Hospital Complex and the Municipal Football Stadium were the same Chechen Islamists who carried out the Beslan massacre.
The Beslan Massacre was so horrific that more than 13 years later I still have vivid images of it seared into my memory. In part that's because Britain's intelligence services used it as part of an effort to kill me. Or more accurately drive me to kill myself as part of a "Hands Off Assassination."
This involves putting huge pressure on the intended target by systematically destroying their entire life over a short, intense period. You then lift the pressure slightly to give the intended target time to reflect on all that they've lost.
During that period you ever so slightly introduce the notion of suicide into the target's mind through something like a well placed newstory or even something as simple as an advert on a bus passing by. You then sit back and watch as the target kills themselves.
Obviously no-one could ever be prosecuted for killing someone in this way. Even saying it out loud makes you sound crazy.
In the three week period running up to the Beslan Massacre I'd worked I think 21 consecutive days without a break. That obviously put pressure on my relationship with friends and family. With people at work seeming to be deliberately difficult every day seemed much harder than one before.
As the Beslan massacre was underway I got three consecutive days off. Immediately my cellphone and Internet connection stopped working. My bank accounts were also frozen meaning I couldn't buy food let alone go out with friends. All I could do was sit amongst the shattered ruins of my life endlessly watching the horrors of Beslan unfold on TV news.
This was the same technique used to kill British weapons inspector Dr David Kelly in July 2003. It was his "sexed-up" dossier on Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) which was used to justify the March 2003 invasion of Iraq.
In the two weeks prior to his death you could see Dr Kelly's life rapidly falling to pieces. He was exposed by the BBC leading to a whirlwind period which saw him splashed across every news outlet across the globe and dragged before British Parliamentary committees. He was then given a period of quiet reflection at his country home. Where he killed himself.
Needless to say this technique sometimes referred to as; "Assisted Suicide" remains controversial. Particularly as we're once again back in Iraq. It's often discussed in coded terms around the issue of euthanasia. Tony Nicklinson probably being the most famous British example recently.
The main revelation from the BBC's "Raqqa's Dirty Secret" expose was that the agreement had involved 4,000 people rather than "the 250 initially reported." I honestly do not know where Quentin Sommerville got this story from.
The details of the negotiation were obviously kept an closely guarded secret while they were ongoing. However the figure that was always rumoured was that it would involve around 4,000 people. I think the highest I heard was 4,750.
This was made up of one group of fighters who were local to Syria and Iraq but who were not members of the tribes indigenous to Raqqa and the surrounding area. These people would be sent to prison.
The second group was fighters who were members of those tribes. They were to be returned to their tribes.
Following the liberation of Mosul I talked about punishing low-level local ISIL fighters with a sort of probation system of monitoring. Although not perfect the monitoring system provided by the tribal system will be much more severe then that. Can you imagine having your mother-in-law as your probation officer.
The third much larger group was the wives and children of the fighters. ISIL practice multiple marriage so when you talk about an ISIL fighter's family you can easily be talking about five to ten people. This group were to be transferred to a sort of internment camp just outside Raqqa provided by the British charity Shelter Box.
When the deal went through the announcement was that 375 of the non-local tribal fighters had been taken to prison in Tabqa. The camp for the fighter's families is that large it can probably been seen from space.
So Quentin Sommerville and the BBC seem to have just completely made up this figure of 250.
The only interesting detail in this expose was the allegation that some foreign fighters had fled Raqqa to Turkey.
The BBC expose came out the day after the discovery on November 12th (12/11/17) of a Pipebomb type Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) at a war memorial in Omagh, Northern Ireland.
The August 15th 1998 (15/8/98) Omagh bombing was probably the most vicious False Flag terror attack Britain has ever experienced. I have vivid memories of that too seared into my mind.
The British intelligence services detonated a bomb on a crowded shopping street killing 29 and wounding 300 more. The hope was that the bombing would be blamed on the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) and the public backlash would derail the Good Friday peace agreement.
This is rather like how elements of the Turkish intelligence services loyal to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) created the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) group. In order to prevent a similar peace agreement between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In August 2016 Turkey formally and illegally invaded a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide stretch of northern Syria from Azaz/Kilis in the west to the Euphrates River in the east. As the invasion was conducted to keep Turkey's supply lines to ISIL open this area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."
That is in reference to the Garvaghy Road in Drumcree, Northern Ireland. In July 1998 there was tense 10-day standoff between Republicans and Loyalists. The fact this stand-off didn't derail the Good Friday Agreement probably explains the Omagh bombing.
Turkey's President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan clearly took this British news as a reference to Syria's Garvaghy Road.
So on November 16th (16/11/17) the SDF's spokesman Talal Silo suddenly defected to Turkey. Via the Garvaghy Road.
Talal Silo is/was a Turkmen member of the SDF. He belonged to the Turkmen Seljuq Brigades. I gather his decision to join Erdogan's illustrious cause had something to do with Turkish intelligence threatening to kill his entire family.
Much to my frustration at 17:15 on 24/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up tomorrow.
Thursday, 23 November 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 41, Week 2, Day 7.
In the summer of 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were at their most powerful.
They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.
Now in the winter of 2017 ISIL have been reduced to just a few scattered positions in Syria. Mainly around the Euphrates River basin.
Within this area of north-eastern Syria there have been two distinct forces conducting multiple operations against ISIL.
One of these is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition formed by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in October 2015.
Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
Prior to the formation of the SDF the YPG had driven ISIL from the entire Syria/Turkey border from the Euphrates River in the west to Syria's border with Iraq. This was completed in July 2015 with the liberation of Tal Abyad - a border town around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.
In August 2015 the YPG drove ISIL from the city of Hasakah. This sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
The liberations of Tal Abyad and Hasakah put the SDF in control of a vast area of north-eastern Syria from the Euphrates to Syria's borders with Turkey and Iraq. For operational reasons this area which cuts across parts of several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."
In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates."
The first phase of this operation saw the SDF advance south from positions around 70km (45 miles) north of Raqqa. This was completed in late November 2016 with the SDF taking up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq).
The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River effectively from where it enters Syria from Turkey. This was completed in January 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq).
The third phase of the operation saw the SDF advance to take up positions east of Raqqa. This was completed in March 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq).
On March 23rd (23/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. The adjoining Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the river.
On May 5th (5/11/17) the SDF completed the liberation of the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. After of 133 days on intense urban fighting Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th (19/10/17).
Whilst fighting to liberate Raqqa the SDF were also advancing along the northern bank of the Euphrates from Karamah to Deir-ez-Zour City. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated an area known as Husayniyah area. This sits around 4km (2 miles) north-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone. As a result its liberation secured SDF control of the northern banks of the Euphrates between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zour.
Alongside the Wrath of Euphrates operation the SDF have also been conducting a second operation within the Euphrates River basin. Launched on September 9th (9/9/17) this is codenamed; "Cizre Storm."
The only area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River which does not fall under SDF control as part of Shangri-La is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.
Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.
Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.
The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.
Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).
The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.
The SDF's progress was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.
On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.
Constantly referring to these as; "The First Axis," "The Second Axis" etc gets tedious. So I designated them; "Aisling," "Niamh" and "Siobhan."
The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.
The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.
The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached and liberated as-Suwar. It then advanced north towards Markadah. On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis united just south of Markadah. They went on to liberate the town on October 20th (20/10/17).
Having united the Niamh and Siobhan axis went on to liberate both the east and west banks of the Khobar from Suwar to the Euphrates River. This was completed on November 6th (6/11/17).
The Niamh and Siobhan axis have continued their combined work. Both to liberate both banks of the Khobar from Suwar to Shadaddi and to fully secure the area between the Khobar and the Madan - Shadaddi line.
They have continued to make steady progress in this desert area. However it is progress that can only really be described in terms of GPS coordinates which I am not going to provide
On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.
On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl.
On October 22nd (22/10/17) the Aisling axis had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 5th (5/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated the Sarhit, Shudayha, Younes, Galban and Shaitat Oil & Gas Fields. These small fields sit in an area just beyond the main Omar Oil & Gas Field.
Having raced across the Khobar the Aisling axis has mainly been concentrating on securing the area along the banks of the Euphrates between the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone and the Omar Oil & Gas Field.
By November 7th (7/11/17) the Aisling axis had advanced from the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone to the town of Busayrah. This sits almost on a island directly where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.
On November 12th (12/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Busayrah. It has since moved to fully secure the area between Busayrah and Diban.
On November 13th (13/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated al-Gharbi village between Shuhayl and Busrayah. On November 16th (16/11/17) it liberated al-Hawayji which sits between Shuhayl and Diban.
On November 17th (17/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Diban. On November 20th (20/11/17) it liberated Tayyani which sits between Diban and al-Quriyah.
The Aisling axis has also been working from the Omar Oil & Gas Field back up to where the Euphrates and Khobar Rivers meet.
On November 10th (10/11/17) it liberated al-Omar town adjacent to the Oil & Gas Field. On November 15th (15/11/17) it liberated al-Khari which sits just south-west of the Tanak Oil & Gas Field.
Despite these SDF gains ISIL have retained the ability to launch hit-and-run offensives on SDF from desert bases.
On November 20th (20/11/17) ISIL conducted a sustained counter-offensive against the SDF close to the Tanak Oil & Gas Field. The SDF however were able to repel this attack.
As I've mentioned on November 5th (5/11/17) ISIL conducted Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) against a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) located between the Jafra and al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. It killed at least 100 civilians.
On November 17th (17/11/17) ISIL conducted another VBIED attack against the same IDP camp. On this occasion at least 20 civilians were killed.
The second distinct force currently conducting operations against ISIL in north-eastern Syria are the Syrians themselves.
Since May 2017 the Syrians have been conducting operations to liberate the centre of Syria from ISIL. Both in the north and the south of the country.
To the north the Syrians liberated the town of Dalhah on July 30th (30/7/17). Dalhah sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
Meanwhile the Syrians were advancing west-to-east across the south of the country from the capital Damascus. By June 9th (9/6/17) they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
This established the al-Tanf - Palmyra Line.
On August 8th (8/8/17) Syrian forces from Dalhah and Palmyra converged on the town of as-Suknah. This around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra.
The Syrian convergence on as-Suknah marked the liberation of the last ISIL held town in Homs Province. It also established the Dalhah - Suknah Line.
From as-Suknah the Syrians objective has been to advance on the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This straddles the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 120km (70 miles) north-east of as-Suknah.
On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians reached Deir-ez-Zour City. In doing so they established the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
On September 24th (24/9/17) the Syrians liberated Madan. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The liberation of Madan marked the complete liberation of the area between the Euphrates River and the Dalhah-Suknah Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
While the Syrians were doing this ISIL launched an offensive of their own.
Launched on September 28th (28/9/17) this was designated; "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." It was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive.
By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates around 60km (35 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians liberated Mayadin. In doing so they created the Suknah-Mayadin Line.
On November 3rd (3/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Deir-ez-Zour City. The exception being a small presence of around 250 ISIL fighters on Hawijat Kati Island. This sits in the Euphrates north of the H7 Highway bridge.
On November 18th (18/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Hawijat Kati Island.
At around 18:25 on 23/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up and hopefully run a spellcheck after dinner.
Edited at around 19:55 on 23/11/17 (UK date) to add;
The liberation of the cities of Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour left ISIL in control of just one population centre in the Euphrates River basin. This is the town of Abu Kamal/Al-Bukamal. It sits around 8km (5 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Alongside liberating Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour cities the Syrians were also conducting another operation.
The were advancing from both the Tanf - Palmyra Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line on the T-2 Airbase.
With it's strange arrangement of runways in an X formation the T-2 Airbase sits just on the edge of the Abu Kamal municipal area. Around 70km (40 miles) west of the town itself. It is seen as the military gateway to liberating Abu Kamal.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the Syrians liberated the T-2 Airbase. On November 5th (5/11/17) the Syrians reached the Syria/Iraq border from the T-2 Airbase.
On November 8th (8/11/17) the Syrians launched an operation to liberate Abu Kamal itself. Attacking from the south and the west.
Initially it appeared as though ISIL had fled Abu Kamal in panic. This allowed the Syrians to declare victory in the town on the same day their operation had begun.
By November 10th (10/11/17) it had become clear that ISIL had managed to re-group outside of the town and launch a counter-offensive. This combined with sleeper cells that had been hiding in tunnels underneath Abu Kamal.
This counter-offensive proved to be substantial. By November 12th (12/11/17) ISIL claimed that they had been able to re-capture all of Abu Kamal. While this was an exaggeration ISIL were certainly able to regain control of around 50-75% of the town.
While fighting was ongoing in Abu Kamal further Syrian forces were advancing along the southern bank of the Euphrates from Mayadin to Abu Kamal.
On November 9th (9/11/17) these forces were able to reach the Hamdan Airbase which sits directly to the north of Abu Kamal. After liberating the airbase they were able to join the battle for Abu Kamal opening a northern axis on or around November 13th (13/11/17).
Obviously having declared Abu Kamal liberated once only to be embarrassed the Syrians have been extremely cautious in declaring it liberated for a second time. However from Sunday (19/11/17) it has become increasingly clear that the significant fighting in the town has now over and only there are only mopping up operations to do.
While battling to liberate Abu Kamal the Syrians have been working to clear ISIL from the section of desert bordered by the Tanf-Suknah Line, the Suknah-Mayadin Line, the Euphrates River and the border with Iraq.
Their particular focus is on the roads linking the T-2 Airbase with Mayadin and the main Deir-ez-Zour to Homs highway. Both of which are now said to be fully reopened.
20:45 on 23/11/17 (UK date).
They controlled large swathes of both Iraq and Syria. They'd declared themselves to be an Islamist Caliphate. Their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be it's Caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa to be its capital.
Now in the winter of 2017 ISIL have been reduced to just a few scattered positions in Syria. Mainly around the Euphrates River basin.
Within this area of north-eastern Syria there have been two distinct forces conducting multiple operations against ISIL.
One of these is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD). This is a coalition formed by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in October 2015.
Alongside the YPG the SDF is made up of Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces. The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF is supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers.
Prior to the formation of the SDF the YPG had driven ISIL from the entire Syria/Turkey border from the Euphrates River in the west to Syria's border with Iraq. This was completed in July 2015 with the liberation of Tal Abyad - a border town around 45km (25 miles) east of the Euphrates.
In August 2015 the YPG drove ISIL from the city of Hasakah. This sits around 60km (35 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border and around 75km (45 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey.
The liberations of Tal Abyad and Hasakah put the SDF in control of a vast area of north-eastern Syria from the Euphrates to Syria's borders with Turkey and Iraq. For operational reasons this area which cuts across parts of several of Syria's provinces has been designated; "Shangri-La."
In November 2016 the SDF launched an operation codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates."
The first phase of this operation saw the SDF advance south from positions around 70km (45 miles) north of Raqqa. This was completed in late November 2016 with the SDF taking up positions around 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa having liberated around 600kmsq (360 milesq).
The second phase of the operation saw the SDF advance south along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River effectively from where it enters Syria from Turkey. This was completed in January 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Lake Assad around 55km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 3,200kmsq (1.920 milesq).
The third phase of the operation saw the SDF advance to take up positions east of Raqqa. This was completed in March 2017 with the SDF taking up positions at Karamah around 30km (20 miles) east of Raqqa. In the process the SDF liberated around 1000kmsq (600 milesq).
On March 23rd (23/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa. This sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 50km (30 miles) west of Raqqa. The adjoining Tabqa Dam forms Lake Assad out of the river.
On May 5th (5/11/17) the SDF completed the liberation of the town of Tabqa and took control of the Tabqa Dam.
On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the city of Raqqa itself. After of 133 days on intense urban fighting Raqqa was fully liberated on October 19th (19/10/17).
Whilst fighting to liberate Raqqa the SDF were also advancing along the northern bank of the Euphrates from Karamah to Deir-ez-Zour City. This sits around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa along the Euphrates.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the SDF liberated an area known as Husayniyah area. This sits around 4km (2 miles) north-west of the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone. As a result its liberation secured SDF control of the northern banks of the Euphrates between Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zour.
Alongside the Wrath of Euphrates operation the SDF have also been conducting a second operation within the Euphrates River basin. Launched on September 9th (9/9/17) this is codenamed; "Cizre Storm."
The only area of Syria north-east of the Euphrates River which does not fall under SDF control as part of Shangri-La is a roughly 1500kmsq (860 milesq) area stretching across the Khobar River.
Roughly in the shape of a triangle this has as its tip the point where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. It's base is an imaginary line stretching between the towns of Madan and al-Shadaddi.
Madan sits on the Euphrates River roughly 70km (40 miles) south-east of Raqqa and 110km (70 miles) north-west of Mayadin. Al-Shadaddi sits on the Khobar River roughly 150km (90 miles) east of Raqqa and roughly 130km (75 miles) north of Mayadin.
The objective of the Cizre Storm operation is to advance from the Madan-Shadaddi Line, across the Khobar River to where the Euphrates River enters Iraq. This will liberate the area from ISIL and properly establish Shangri-La with the Euphrates River as its southern boundary.
Initially the Cizre Storm operation made dramatic progress. After just four days it arrived at the Industrial Zone on the outskirts of Deir-ez-Zour City on September 13th (13/9/17).
The capital of Deir-ez-Zour Province Deir-ez-Zour City is located on the Euphrates River. Roughly 65km (40 miles) south-east of Madan and 50km (30 miles) north-west of Mayadin.
The SDF's progress was achieved by establishing a roughly 3km (1.8 mile) wide and 55km (30 mile) deep corridor from the Madan-Shadaddi Line to the Industrial Zone. Unfortunately the operation then stalled for a full seven days.
On September 20th (20/9/17) the Cizre Storm operation received fresh impetus. The SDF established three axis breaking off from the Industrial Zone corridor to the Khobar River.
Constantly referring to these as; "The First Axis," "The Second Axis" etc gets tedious. So I designated them; "Aisling," "Niamh" and "Siobhan."
The first axis; "Aisling" advanced south-east from the Industrial Zone along the banks of the Euphrates in the general direction of the town of al-Zuwaymiyah. This sits on the junction where the Khobar River meets the Euphrates River roughly 8km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone.
The second axis; "Niamh" advanced east from the Industrial Zone corridor towards the town of as-Suwar. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 9km (5 miles) from the Industrial Zone. It is connected to the Industrial Zone by the H7 Damascus to Qamishli Highway.
The third axis; "Siobhan" advanced south from Shadaddi towards the town of Markadah. This sits on the banks of the Khobar River roughly 45km (30 miles) south of Shadaddi and roughly 35km (20 miles) north of as-Suwar.
On September 26th (26/9/17) the Niamh axis reached and liberated as-Suwar. It then advanced north towards Markadah. On October 15th (15/10/17) the Niamh and Siobhan axis united just south of Markadah. They went on to liberate the town on October 20th (20/10/17).
Having united the Niamh and Siobhan axis went on to liberate both the east and west banks of the Khobar from Suwar to the Euphrates River. This was completed on November 6th (6/11/17).
The Niamh and Siobhan axis have continued their combined work. Both to liberate both banks of the Khobar from Suwar to Shadaddi and to fully secure the area between the Khobar and the Madan - Shadaddi line.
They have continued to make steady progress in this desert area. However it is progress that can only really be described in terms of GPS coordinates which I am not going to provide
On or around October 10th (10/10/17) the Aisling axis reached and liberated al-Zuwaymiyah completing its advance towards the Khobar River.
On October 20th (20/10/17) the Aisling axis crossed the Khobar River quickly liberating the villages of al-Mashiqa, al-Lawziyah and Shuhayl.
On October 22nd (22/10/17) the Aisling axis had fully liberated the Omar Oil & Gas Field. Being some 160kmsq (95 milesq) in area the liberation of the Omar Oil & Gas Field now puts the SDF's Aisling axis just 40km (25 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
On November 5th (5/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated the Sarhit, Shudayha, Younes, Galban and Shaitat Oil & Gas Fields. These small fields sit in an area just beyond the main Omar Oil & Gas Field.
Having raced across the Khobar the Aisling axis has mainly been concentrating on securing the area along the banks of the Euphrates between the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone and the Omar Oil & Gas Field.
By November 7th (7/11/17) the Aisling axis had advanced from the Deir-ez-Zour Industrial Zone to the town of Busayrah. This sits almost on a island directly where the Khobar and Euphrates Rivers meet.
On November 12th (12/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Busayrah. It has since moved to fully secure the area between Busayrah and Diban.
On November 13th (13/11/17) the Aisling axis liberated al-Gharbi village between Shuhayl and Busrayah. On November 16th (16/11/17) it liberated al-Hawayji which sits between Shuhayl and Diban.
On November 17th (17/11/17) the SDF's Aisling axis fully liberated Diban. On November 20th (20/11/17) it liberated Tayyani which sits between Diban and al-Quriyah.
The Aisling axis has also been working from the Omar Oil & Gas Field back up to where the Euphrates and Khobar Rivers meet.
On November 10th (10/11/17) it liberated al-Omar town adjacent to the Oil & Gas Field. On November 15th (15/11/17) it liberated al-Khari which sits just south-west of the Tanak Oil & Gas Field.
Despite these SDF gains ISIL have retained the ability to launch hit-and-run offensives on SDF from desert bases.
On November 20th (20/11/17) ISIL conducted a sustained counter-offensive against the SDF close to the Tanak Oil & Gas Field. The SDF however were able to repel this attack.
As I've mentioned on November 5th (5/11/17) ISIL conducted Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) against a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP's) located between the Jafra and al-Isba Oil & Gas Fields. It killed at least 100 civilians.
On November 17th (17/11/17) ISIL conducted another VBIED attack against the same IDP camp. On this occasion at least 20 civilians were killed.
The second distinct force currently conducting operations against ISIL in north-eastern Syria are the Syrians themselves.
Since May 2017 the Syrians have been conducting operations to liberate the centre of Syria from ISIL. Both in the north and the south of the country.
To the north the Syrians liberated the town of Dalhah on July 30th (30/7/17). Dalhah sits on the southern banks of the Euphrates around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.
Meanwhile the Syrians were advancing west-to-east across the south of the country from the capital Damascus. By June 9th (9/6/17) they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.
From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
This established the al-Tanf - Palmyra Line.
On August 8th (8/8/17) Syrian forces from Dalhah and Palmyra converged on the town of as-Suknah. This around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra.
The Syrian convergence on as-Suknah marked the liberation of the last ISIL held town in Homs Province. It also established the Dalhah - Suknah Line.
From as-Suknah the Syrians objective has been to advance on the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This straddles the Euphrates around 120km (70 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 120km (70 miles) north-east of as-Suknah.
On September 5th (5/9/17) the Syrians reached Deir-ez-Zour City. In doing so they established the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
On September 24th (24/9/17) the Syrians liberated Madan. This sits around 55km (30 miles) south-east of Raqqa and around 65km (40 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City.
The liberation of Madan marked the complete liberation of the area between the Euphrates River and the Dalhah-Suknah Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line.
While the Syrians were doing this ISIL launched an offensive of their own.
Launched on September 28th (28/9/17) this was designated; "Abu Muhammad al-Adani Offensive." It was intended to break Syrian lines both between Deir-ez-Zour and as-Suknah and between as-Suknah and Palmyra.
On September 29th (29/9/17) the Syrians launched an offensive of their own to counter the al-Adani offensive.
By October 6th (6/10/17) they had pushed ISIL all the way back to the outskirts of Mayadin. This sits on the Euphrates around 60km (35 miles) south-east of Deir-ez-Zour.
On October 14th (14/10/17) the Syrians liberated Mayadin. In doing so they created the Suknah-Mayadin Line.
On November 3rd (3/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Deir-ez-Zour City. The exception being a small presence of around 250 ISIL fighters on Hawijat Kati Island. This sits in the Euphrates north of the H7 Highway bridge.
On November 18th (18/11/17) the Syrians fully liberated Hawijat Kati Island.
At around 18:25 on 23/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up and hopefully run a spellcheck after dinner.
Edited at around 19:55 on 23/11/17 (UK date) to add;
The liberation of the cities of Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour left ISIL in control of just one population centre in the Euphrates River basin. This is the town of Abu Kamal/Al-Bukamal. It sits around 8km (5 miles) from Syria's border with Iraq.
Alongside liberating Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour cities the Syrians were also conducting another operation.
The were advancing from both the Tanf - Palmyra Line and the Suknah - Deir-ez-Zour Line on the T-2 Airbase.
With it's strange arrangement of runways in an X formation the T-2 Airbase sits just on the edge of the Abu Kamal municipal area. Around 70km (40 miles) west of the town itself. It is seen as the military gateway to liberating Abu Kamal.
On October 26th (26/10/17) the Syrians liberated the T-2 Airbase. On November 5th (5/11/17) the Syrians reached the Syria/Iraq border from the T-2 Airbase.
On November 8th (8/11/17) the Syrians launched an operation to liberate Abu Kamal itself. Attacking from the south and the west.
Initially it appeared as though ISIL had fled Abu Kamal in panic. This allowed the Syrians to declare victory in the town on the same day their operation had begun.
By November 10th (10/11/17) it had become clear that ISIL had managed to re-group outside of the town and launch a counter-offensive. This combined with sleeper cells that had been hiding in tunnels underneath Abu Kamal.
This counter-offensive proved to be substantial. By November 12th (12/11/17) ISIL claimed that they had been able to re-capture all of Abu Kamal. While this was an exaggeration ISIL were certainly able to regain control of around 50-75% of the town.
While fighting was ongoing in Abu Kamal further Syrian forces were advancing along the southern bank of the Euphrates from Mayadin to Abu Kamal.
On November 9th (9/11/17) these forces were able to reach the Hamdan Airbase which sits directly to the north of Abu Kamal. After liberating the airbase they were able to join the battle for Abu Kamal opening a northern axis on or around November 13th (13/11/17).
Obviously having declared Abu Kamal liberated once only to be embarrassed the Syrians have been extremely cautious in declaring it liberated for a second time. However from Sunday (19/11/17) it has become increasingly clear that the significant fighting in the town has now over and only there are only mopping up operations to do.
While battling to liberate Abu Kamal the Syrians have been working to clear ISIL from the section of desert bordered by the Tanf-Suknah Line, the Suknah-Mayadin Line, the Euphrates River and the border with Iraq.
Their particular focus is on the roads linking the T-2 Airbase with Mayadin and the main Deir-ez-Zour to Homs highway. Both of which are now said to be fully reopened.
20:45 on 23/11/17 (UK date).
Tuesday, 21 November 2017
The Robert Mugabe Retirement Party Drags On.
Last week I stated that Robert Mugabe had retired from his role as President of Zimbabwe on November 15th (15/11/17).
I went on to state that the Zimbabwean military had held a parade in honour of his retirement. I then stated that the Zimbabwean public also held a parade to honour his retirement.
This was followed by a reception by his The Zimbabwe African National Union -Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party. Also in honour of his retirement.
Strictly speaking none of that is untrue. However it is also not strictly speaking true either. The diplomatic language was to try and save the blushes of a leader who once had possibly the sharpest mind in the business.
If there is one incident that shows just how sharp Mugabe's mind used to be it is his 2005 handshake with British Crown Prince Charles Windsor.
As it has been throughout its entire history Zimbabwe at the time was under economic sanctions by Britain. Due to his refusal to return Zimbabwe to the British Commonwealth the UK had broken off all diplomatic relations with Mugabe and attempted multiple coups to overthrow him.
At Catholic Pope John Paul II funeral Robert Mugabe sidled up to Prince Charles and stuck out his hand offering a handshake. Without thinking Prince Charles took Mugabe's hand and gave him a warm handshake. Appearing to end decades of animosity in front of the World's assembled media.
Although a handshake is only a small thing this one incident really showed how Robert Mugabe could outwit pretty much anyone on any given day.
Sadly those days are now gone. At 93 years old Robert Mugabe now suffers from some form of Dementia.
Britain has long circulated rumours that this dementia is the result of Tertiary Syphilis. Like the British Shadow Interior Minister Diane Abbott.
It could also be the result of Transient Ischemic Attacks (TIA's) or "mini-strokes." Like 2016 Democrat Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
There are though nearly 100 different recognised types of dementia with my favourite being; "Non-Specific Dementia." Mugabe could be suffering for any one or combination of them.
Although doctors try to preserve a patient's privacy no matter how high profile they are coded references to Mugabe's condition have been doing the rounds in medical circles for a while now.
On October 21st (21/10/17) the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced they were appointing Robert Mugabe as a; "Goodwill Ambassador." This would see him focus on public outreach raising the profile of non-communicable diseases. Like Dementia.
Many doctors focus on specific diseases and medical conditions. Although it might sound perverse they actually get a bit excited when a celebrity gets the disease they are expert in the. The extra attention raises the public profile of the disease boosting public awareness and sometimes increasing funding.
For example here was a British Reality TV star by the name of Jade Goody. In 2009 she died of Cervical Cancer at the extremely young age of 27.
The publicity this generated led to British doctors advising women to get tested for Cervical Cancer at a much younger age and women to seek out regular testing for Cervical Cancer. This reduced death rates from this type of cancer and in British medical circles is still referred to as; "The Jade Goody Effect."
Just the other week I was talking about the US celebrity Selena Gomez. Although she doesn't exactly seem happy with the burden she is fast becoming the face of the disease Lupus. Or Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) for those of us with Latin.
On Sunday (19/11/17) Robert Mugabe gave a televised address to the nation. In this speech he was supposed to formally announce his retirement. Although for patient privacy reasons that speech would not give exact details of the reason for his retirement it was intended to contain a number of clues.
The main way that dementia is diagnosed is through what's known as a; "Folstein Test" which is sometimes referred to as a; "Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE)." This essentially uses word games to assess someones cognitive function.
Mugabe's speech contained lots of long words which feature in a MMSE as a test of language function. It also featured repetition and complex commands along with other elements of a Folstein test.
Therefore the intention was that people who are familiar with dementia and its symptoms would pick up on the clues. However Robert Mugabe's health problems would remain secret to all those without that specialist knowledge.
Unfortunately Mugabe's condition is more severe then anyone expected. As a result through the giving of the speech he became noticeably confused and disorientated.
Becoming confused and disorientated is obviously very frightening for the patient. So they often react by becoming aggressive. Normally to the person who is trying to care for them the most. I've had dementia patients throw bricks at me and bite me so hard it draws blood.
So in his confusion Mugabe failed to retire. Instead he announced his intention to oversee the upcoming ZANU-PF conference. His hope being to block his Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa from replacing him. At this point Mnangagwa is really Mugabe's main careworker.
All this sadly means that Mugabe's privacy can no longer be protected. Zimbabwe has no choice other than to impeach him.
Impeachment is covered by Section 97 of Zimbabwe's constitution.
It requires that the Senate and National Assembly vote by a 50% majority to begin impeachment proceedings. This leads to the formation of a nine member joint committee to examine the evidence.
Following the report of that joint committee there must be a two thirds majority vote by both the Senate and National Assembly for impeachment to take place.
Today (21/11/17) both the Senate and the National Assembly have passed the initial vote to begin the process. In an effort to further preserve Mr Mugabe's modesty they appear to be pursuing it on the first three listed grounds relating to serious misconduct and violation of the constitution.
I am certainly not an expert on Zimbabwean constitutional law. However from my reading of Section 6 it seems that the President has absolute power to hire and fire Vice Presidents as he wishes. Therefore no matter how bonkers the firing of Mnangagwa is not grounds for impeachment.
I think therefore they should pursue impeachment on the fourth ground; Inability to perform the duty of office through mental incapacity. That is after all the truth.
Impeachment on these grounds would also resolve the succession issue. It means that Mugabe's decision to fire Mnangagwa is evidence of his lack of mental capacity and therefore invalid.
14:45 on 21/11/17 (UK date).
I went on to state that the Zimbabwean military had held a parade in honour of his retirement. I then stated that the Zimbabwean public also held a parade to honour his retirement.
This was followed by a reception by his The Zimbabwe African National Union -Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party. Also in honour of his retirement.
Strictly speaking none of that is untrue. However it is also not strictly speaking true either. The diplomatic language was to try and save the blushes of a leader who once had possibly the sharpest mind in the business.
If there is one incident that shows just how sharp Mugabe's mind used to be it is his 2005 handshake with British Crown Prince Charles Windsor.
As it has been throughout its entire history Zimbabwe at the time was under economic sanctions by Britain. Due to his refusal to return Zimbabwe to the British Commonwealth the UK had broken off all diplomatic relations with Mugabe and attempted multiple coups to overthrow him.
At Catholic Pope John Paul II funeral Robert Mugabe sidled up to Prince Charles and stuck out his hand offering a handshake. Without thinking Prince Charles took Mugabe's hand and gave him a warm handshake. Appearing to end decades of animosity in front of the World's assembled media.
Although a handshake is only a small thing this one incident really showed how Robert Mugabe could outwit pretty much anyone on any given day.
Sadly those days are now gone. At 93 years old Robert Mugabe now suffers from some form of Dementia.
Britain has long circulated rumours that this dementia is the result of Tertiary Syphilis. Like the British Shadow Interior Minister Diane Abbott.
It could also be the result of Transient Ischemic Attacks (TIA's) or "mini-strokes." Like 2016 Democrat Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
There are though nearly 100 different recognised types of dementia with my favourite being; "Non-Specific Dementia." Mugabe could be suffering for any one or combination of them.
Although doctors try to preserve a patient's privacy no matter how high profile they are coded references to Mugabe's condition have been doing the rounds in medical circles for a while now.
On October 21st (21/10/17) the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced they were appointing Robert Mugabe as a; "Goodwill Ambassador." This would see him focus on public outreach raising the profile of non-communicable diseases. Like Dementia.
Many doctors focus on specific diseases and medical conditions. Although it might sound perverse they actually get a bit excited when a celebrity gets the disease they are expert in the. The extra attention raises the public profile of the disease boosting public awareness and sometimes increasing funding.
For example here was a British Reality TV star by the name of Jade Goody. In 2009 she died of Cervical Cancer at the extremely young age of 27.
The publicity this generated led to British doctors advising women to get tested for Cervical Cancer at a much younger age and women to seek out regular testing for Cervical Cancer. This reduced death rates from this type of cancer and in British medical circles is still referred to as; "The Jade Goody Effect."
Just the other week I was talking about the US celebrity Selena Gomez. Although she doesn't exactly seem happy with the burden she is fast becoming the face of the disease Lupus. Or Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) for those of us with Latin.
On Sunday (19/11/17) Robert Mugabe gave a televised address to the nation. In this speech he was supposed to formally announce his retirement. Although for patient privacy reasons that speech would not give exact details of the reason for his retirement it was intended to contain a number of clues.
The main way that dementia is diagnosed is through what's known as a; "Folstein Test" which is sometimes referred to as a; "Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE)." This essentially uses word games to assess someones cognitive function.
Mugabe's speech contained lots of long words which feature in a MMSE as a test of language function. It also featured repetition and complex commands along with other elements of a Folstein test.
Therefore the intention was that people who are familiar with dementia and its symptoms would pick up on the clues. However Robert Mugabe's health problems would remain secret to all those without that specialist knowledge.
Unfortunately Mugabe's condition is more severe then anyone expected. As a result through the giving of the speech he became noticeably confused and disorientated.
Becoming confused and disorientated is obviously very frightening for the patient. So they often react by becoming aggressive. Normally to the person who is trying to care for them the most. I've had dementia patients throw bricks at me and bite me so hard it draws blood.
So in his confusion Mugabe failed to retire. Instead he announced his intention to oversee the upcoming ZANU-PF conference. His hope being to block his Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa from replacing him. At this point Mnangagwa is really Mugabe's main careworker.
All this sadly means that Mugabe's privacy can no longer be protected. Zimbabwe has no choice other than to impeach him.
Impeachment is covered by Section 97 of Zimbabwe's constitution.
It requires that the Senate and National Assembly vote by a 50% majority to begin impeachment proceedings. This leads to the formation of a nine member joint committee to examine the evidence.
Following the report of that joint committee there must be a two thirds majority vote by both the Senate and National Assembly for impeachment to take place.
Today (21/11/17) both the Senate and the National Assembly have passed the initial vote to begin the process. In an effort to further preserve Mr Mugabe's modesty they appear to be pursuing it on the first three listed grounds relating to serious misconduct and violation of the constitution.
I am certainly not an expert on Zimbabwean constitutional law. However from my reading of Section 6 it seems that the President has absolute power to hire and fire Vice Presidents as he wishes. Therefore no matter how bonkers the firing of Mnangagwa is not grounds for impeachment.
I think therefore they should pursue impeachment on the fourth ground; Inability to perform the duty of office through mental incapacity. That is after all the truth.
Impeachment on these grounds would also resolve the succession issue. It means that Mugabe's decision to fire Mnangagwa is evidence of his lack of mental capacity and therefore invalid.
14:45 on 21/11/17 (UK date).
Thursday, 16 November 2017
Zimbabwe: A COP23 Perspective.
Yesterday (15/11/17) Robert Mugabe retired from his role as President of Zimbabwe.
Very much the father of the nation Robert Mugabe is the only President that Zimbabwe has ever known. As such discussing the nature of his retirement requires you to go a very long way back in history.
From the 14th Century through to really the start of the 20th Century the European nations were in grip of the idea of; "Colonialism." That is to say they would travel the World establishing colonies and then suck those colonies dry for the benefit of a small European elite.
Probably one of the most famous of these colonies is what is now known as the United States of America (USA). They rebelled against their British colonial oppressors in 1776.
The nations of Portugal, the Netherlands and Britain were particularly interested in Southern Africa. Aside from its vast mineral resources in the days before the building of the Suez Canal Africa's Cape of Good Hope was the key logistical hub for ships travelling between the eastern and western hemispheres.
In 1870 a young British man by the name of Cecil John Rhodes arrived in Africa's southern cape. Despite briefly returning to the UK to study at Oxford University Cecil Rhodes spent most of his time buying up diamond mines. In 1888 he founded the De Beers diamond mining cartel.
In 1889 Cecil Rhodes used his role within De Beers to form the British South Africa Company (BSAC). With a Royal Charter from the British Crown BSAC's role was to take control of an exploit all the resources across southern Africa. Rather like the more famous British East India Company BSAC acted as a law unto itself with its own police force and army.
Almost immediately following its formation the British South Africa Corporation tried to seize control over the diamond fields in the Transvaal region of what is now known as the Republic of South Africa. This plunged them into a war against the descendants of Dutch colonialists known as the Boer who had settled the area as farmers.
By 1902 the BSAC had won this Second Boer War. This established as the area under its control what are now considered the nations of Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Although it was never an official term this area was known as; "Rhodesia" in honour of Cecil Rhodes.
In 1928 Britain gave what became the Union of South Africa status as an independent nation. Under duress from the Boers. In 1948 the Union of South Africa introduced the formalised system of White Supremacy known as apartheid.
In the 1960's both by what that time were known as Colony of Southern Rhodesia and the Colony of Northern Rhodesia also wanted to become independent states. In order to put pressure on the Boers in the Union of South Africa the British agreed. On condition those colonies ended their versions of apartheid.
The Colony of Northern Rhodesia was fine with this and became the nation of Zambia in 1964.
However the Prime Minister of the Colony of Southern Rhodesia Ian Smith refused to end apartheid. Instead he unilaterally withdrew from the British Empire and declared the independent nation of the Republic of Rhodesia with Salisbury as its capital.
This triggered a complex, three-way war known as;e "The Rhodesian Bush War." On one side you had Ian Smith's Republic of Rhodesia backed by the White Supremacist government of the Union of South Africa.
On another side you had the Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU). The were backed by the Soviet Union as part of their; "Arc of Resistance" which also included the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) and Nelson Mandela's African National Congress (ANC).
Britain however decided to pick a third side. The Zimbabwe African National Union -Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). They were led by Robert Mugabe.
In 1979 the ZANU-PF won the Bush War. In 1980 the independent nation of Zimbabwe was formed, Salisbury became Harare and Robert Mugabe President.
Britain backed the ZANU-PF on the assumption that upon becoming President Mugabe would immediately bring Zimbabwe back into what by that time had become the British Commonwealth.
Mugabe though saw things differently. He was going to run Zimbabwe for the benefit of the Zimbabwean people rather than for the benefit of a small British elite. He even merged the ZANU-PF with the ZAPU.
Obviously that sort of dangerous thinking could not go unpunished. So pretty much since 1980 Britain has been trying to oust Mugabe and replace him with an obedient little house boy.
Britain's main weapon in this effort has been economic. The thinking being that if Britain can destroy Zimbabwe's economy its people will rise up in some sort of colour revolution.
In order to achieve this Britain established a vast network of fake civil society and human rights groups to invent accusations. Those fake accusations are then used to impose sanctions.
Even the most well run democracy relies on a degree of patronage and vote buying. In America they refer to this as; "Pork."
Next week the UK will unveil its annual budget. As a result British politics is just grubby MP's grasping for a pay-off to consolidate their position with voters.
Probably the most bizarre example is Carlyn Harris' demand for a Child Funeral Fund. Which makes you wonder how much this Labour MP has tied up in child sized coffins.
Within Zimbabwe probably the most powerful constituency demanding patronage is the ZANU-PF veterans of the Bush War. Even in an absolutely Monarchy people who kill and die for their leader expect to be paid.
By tangling the Zimbabwean economy up in sanctions the UK has been trying to make it impossible for Mugabe to pay out the normal patronage governments have to deal with.
In the absence of hard cash Mugabe has instead offered a piece of Zimbabwe's natural resources. In 2000 he started handing out parts of Zimbabwe's lucrative farming sector.
Mugabe's retirement has come during the final week of the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In this age of the Paris Agreement it seems strange talking about the goals of the UNFCCC. It's almost as if you're reeling off a long list of things that will now never happen.
However prior to the UNFCCC's long suicide note much of the talk was about aiding less developed nations - particularly those in Africa - leapfrog over the fossil fuel stage of their economic development by providing them with green technology.
Those less developed nations main concern is that this leapfrogging hurts their ability to meet their other main developmental challenge - providing jobs.
At its most basic level something like coal mining is just smashing rocks with hammers. Therefore to provide that job a government doesn't also have to provide the same level of education you need to became something like a wind turbine maintenance engineer.
Although not strictly speaking coal mining one of the case studies frequently used to illustrate this point is the 2012 strike action by platinum miners in Marikana, South Africa. This is in the Transvaal area that Rhodes' British South Africa Company fought the Boers over in 1889.
Many of the Marikana miners have no formal education and can barely read or write. However in 2012 they took strike action to increase their pay. This was to allow their children to go to school so they could get a job outside of mining or one of the more sophisticated jobs within mining.
Obviously if you were to taking mining out of the equation that small, incremental change would not be available to improve the lives of those miners and their families. Hardly something the South African government could sign up to.
Zimbabwe's farms are a prime example of what happens when this delicate process is rushed or goes wrong.
Prior to 2000 Zimbabwe's farms were run by extremely racist white farmers many of whom had emigrated from Britain to join Ian Smith. Being big supporters of apartheid they obviously kept their farming knowledge within white communities.
So when Mugabe handed the farms over to black Zimbabweans they lacked the required farming knowledge and the farms failed.
Also I should point out the UNFCCC goes to great lengths to include civil society and human rights groups as stakeholders within the process. The way these groups have been abused by Britain in their efforts to oust Mugabe makes many people extremely wary of them.
By retiring Robert Mugabe has handed control of Zimbabwe to his Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. He obviously has a lot of challenges facing him. Including restoring control of Zimbabwe's farms to people who know how to run and operate farms properly.
His more immediate challenge though seems to be consolidating his power. This transition period has already got Britain's grubby little insects like Morgan Tsvangirai scuttling out of the woodwork.
18:25 on 16/11/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 18:50 on 17/11/17 (UK date) to add;
It turns out I'm finally drunk enough to declare a personal interest in all this.
As I said the British Crown backed Mugabe's ZANU-PF in the Bush War in the assumption that he would immediately bring the newly formed nation of Zimbabwe back into what was by then the British Commonwealth.
However if the house boy refused to be obedient they had a plan in place. They would establish a network of white loyalists within the nation to force Mugabe did as he was told.
Part of that network was supposed to include my father and his family. The hope was he would occasionally invite his father - my grandfather - to visit. During the Second World War my grandfather was - amongst other things - the bodyguard to Lord Mountbatten during the signing of the Japanese surrender.
Lord Mountbatten was of course effectively the adoptive father of British Prince Phillip who went on to marry British Queen Elizabeth II. He was killed by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) at Sligo Water in 1979.
I never got to meet by grandfather. By all accounts though he was a bit of a big lad. He even managed to keep my very Welsh grandmother in line for a good few years.
The reason why I never got to meet my grandfather is that just before the Zimbabwe plan was meant to go into action I was conceived and he died of a heart attack. As a result the Zimbabwe plan was cancelled.
So apparently it's all my fault Mugabe didn't bring Zimbabwe into the UK Commonwealth. Which nothing else proves Church of England (CoE) 'Protestants' can believe in the Catholic Christian concept of "Original Sin." When it suits them.
Also long term readers may remember that in 2013 I some small legal issues involving an entirely false claim of racially motivated criminal damage. These allegations were thrown out of Court during COP19. My innocence was not even questioned.
However in the summer long process which took us to that point there was a short but serious discussion over whether Zimbabwe would grant me political asylum/refugee status. After all the Zimbabwe High Commission in London is just across the road from a certain police station.
On Wednesday (15/11/17) the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) held a parade to congratulate Mugabe on his retirement and his service to the nation. It seems that in part this parade was planned by China.
I understand China's contribution to this parade was to schedule it for during COP23. Their intention being to throw all the above in everyone's faces. The hope being to divert attention from how much they're going to make Climate Change worst by growing ghg's under the terms of the Paris Agreement.
Scheduling aside though I think China's motives were legitimate.
Plans for Robert Mugabe's retirement really began in 1996 when he married Grace Marufu. This gold-digging bitch has absolutely nothing to do with the patriotic war of independence.
They gathered speed in 2015 when Robert Mugabe delivered a speech at the opening of Parliament. It was the same speech he'd given as his state of the nation address just two months earlier. Sadly he got through the entire speech without noticing.
They gathered even more speed when last week Robert Mugabe declared that he had fired Zimbabwe's Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Despite VP Mnangagwa not being present in the meeting in which Robert Mugabe claimed he had fired him.
I gather that tomorrow the Zimbabwean people will also be holding a parade to congratulate Robert Mugabe on his retirement and his service to the nation.
I really hope I don't need to make a joke about them needing to hold another parade about two hours later.
19:15 on 17/11/17 (UK date).
Very much the father of the nation Robert Mugabe is the only President that Zimbabwe has ever known. As such discussing the nature of his retirement requires you to go a very long way back in history.
From the 14th Century through to really the start of the 20th Century the European nations were in grip of the idea of; "Colonialism." That is to say they would travel the World establishing colonies and then suck those colonies dry for the benefit of a small European elite.
Probably one of the most famous of these colonies is what is now known as the United States of America (USA). They rebelled against their British colonial oppressors in 1776.
The nations of Portugal, the Netherlands and Britain were particularly interested in Southern Africa. Aside from its vast mineral resources in the days before the building of the Suez Canal Africa's Cape of Good Hope was the key logistical hub for ships travelling between the eastern and western hemispheres.
In 1870 a young British man by the name of Cecil John Rhodes arrived in Africa's southern cape. Despite briefly returning to the UK to study at Oxford University Cecil Rhodes spent most of his time buying up diamond mines. In 1888 he founded the De Beers diamond mining cartel.
In 1889 Cecil Rhodes used his role within De Beers to form the British South Africa Company (BSAC). With a Royal Charter from the British Crown BSAC's role was to take control of an exploit all the resources across southern Africa. Rather like the more famous British East India Company BSAC acted as a law unto itself with its own police force and army.
Almost immediately following its formation the British South Africa Corporation tried to seize control over the diamond fields in the Transvaal region of what is now known as the Republic of South Africa. This plunged them into a war against the descendants of Dutch colonialists known as the Boer who had settled the area as farmers.
By 1902 the BSAC had won this Second Boer War. This established as the area under its control what are now considered the nations of Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Although it was never an official term this area was known as; "Rhodesia" in honour of Cecil Rhodes.
In 1928 Britain gave what became the Union of South Africa status as an independent nation. Under duress from the Boers. In 1948 the Union of South Africa introduced the formalised system of White Supremacy known as apartheid.
In the 1960's both by what that time were known as Colony of Southern Rhodesia and the Colony of Northern Rhodesia also wanted to become independent states. In order to put pressure on the Boers in the Union of South Africa the British agreed. On condition those colonies ended their versions of apartheid.
The Colony of Northern Rhodesia was fine with this and became the nation of Zambia in 1964.
However the Prime Minister of the Colony of Southern Rhodesia Ian Smith refused to end apartheid. Instead he unilaterally withdrew from the British Empire and declared the independent nation of the Republic of Rhodesia with Salisbury as its capital.
This triggered a complex, three-way war known as;e "The Rhodesian Bush War." On one side you had Ian Smith's Republic of Rhodesia backed by the White Supremacist government of the Union of South Africa.
On another side you had the Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU). The were backed by the Soviet Union as part of their; "Arc of Resistance" which also included the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) and Nelson Mandela's African National Congress (ANC).
Britain however decided to pick a third side. The Zimbabwe African National Union -Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). They were led by Robert Mugabe.
In 1979 the ZANU-PF won the Bush War. In 1980 the independent nation of Zimbabwe was formed, Salisbury became Harare and Robert Mugabe President.
Britain backed the ZANU-PF on the assumption that upon becoming President Mugabe would immediately bring Zimbabwe back into what by that time had become the British Commonwealth.
Mugabe though saw things differently. He was going to run Zimbabwe for the benefit of the Zimbabwean people rather than for the benefit of a small British elite. He even merged the ZANU-PF with the ZAPU.
Obviously that sort of dangerous thinking could not go unpunished. So pretty much since 1980 Britain has been trying to oust Mugabe and replace him with an obedient little house boy.
Britain's main weapon in this effort has been economic. The thinking being that if Britain can destroy Zimbabwe's economy its people will rise up in some sort of colour revolution.
In order to achieve this Britain established a vast network of fake civil society and human rights groups to invent accusations. Those fake accusations are then used to impose sanctions.
Even the most well run democracy relies on a degree of patronage and vote buying. In America they refer to this as; "Pork."
Next week the UK will unveil its annual budget. As a result British politics is just grubby MP's grasping for a pay-off to consolidate their position with voters.
Probably the most bizarre example is Carlyn Harris' demand for a Child Funeral Fund. Which makes you wonder how much this Labour MP has tied up in child sized coffins.
Within Zimbabwe probably the most powerful constituency demanding patronage is the ZANU-PF veterans of the Bush War. Even in an absolutely Monarchy people who kill and die for their leader expect to be paid.
By tangling the Zimbabwean economy up in sanctions the UK has been trying to make it impossible for Mugabe to pay out the normal patronage governments have to deal with.
In the absence of hard cash Mugabe has instead offered a piece of Zimbabwe's natural resources. In 2000 he started handing out parts of Zimbabwe's lucrative farming sector.
Mugabe's retirement has come during the final week of the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In this age of the Paris Agreement it seems strange talking about the goals of the UNFCCC. It's almost as if you're reeling off a long list of things that will now never happen.
However prior to the UNFCCC's long suicide note much of the talk was about aiding less developed nations - particularly those in Africa - leapfrog over the fossil fuel stage of their economic development by providing them with green technology.
Those less developed nations main concern is that this leapfrogging hurts their ability to meet their other main developmental challenge - providing jobs.
At its most basic level something like coal mining is just smashing rocks with hammers. Therefore to provide that job a government doesn't also have to provide the same level of education you need to became something like a wind turbine maintenance engineer.
Although not strictly speaking coal mining one of the case studies frequently used to illustrate this point is the 2012 strike action by platinum miners in Marikana, South Africa. This is in the Transvaal area that Rhodes' British South Africa Company fought the Boers over in 1889.
Many of the Marikana miners have no formal education and can barely read or write. However in 2012 they took strike action to increase their pay. This was to allow their children to go to school so they could get a job outside of mining or one of the more sophisticated jobs within mining.
Obviously if you were to taking mining out of the equation that small, incremental change would not be available to improve the lives of those miners and their families. Hardly something the South African government could sign up to.
Zimbabwe's farms are a prime example of what happens when this delicate process is rushed or goes wrong.
Prior to 2000 Zimbabwe's farms were run by extremely racist white farmers many of whom had emigrated from Britain to join Ian Smith. Being big supporters of apartheid they obviously kept their farming knowledge within white communities.
So when Mugabe handed the farms over to black Zimbabweans they lacked the required farming knowledge and the farms failed.
Also I should point out the UNFCCC goes to great lengths to include civil society and human rights groups as stakeholders within the process. The way these groups have been abused by Britain in their efforts to oust Mugabe makes many people extremely wary of them.
By retiring Robert Mugabe has handed control of Zimbabwe to his Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. He obviously has a lot of challenges facing him. Including restoring control of Zimbabwe's farms to people who know how to run and operate farms properly.
His more immediate challenge though seems to be consolidating his power. This transition period has already got Britain's grubby little insects like Morgan Tsvangirai scuttling out of the woodwork.
18:25 on 16/11/17 (UK date).
Edited at around 18:50 on 17/11/17 (UK date) to add;
It turns out I'm finally drunk enough to declare a personal interest in all this.
As I said the British Crown backed Mugabe's ZANU-PF in the Bush War in the assumption that he would immediately bring the newly formed nation of Zimbabwe back into what was by then the British Commonwealth.
However if the house boy refused to be obedient they had a plan in place. They would establish a network of white loyalists within the nation to force Mugabe did as he was told.
Part of that network was supposed to include my father and his family. The hope was he would occasionally invite his father - my grandfather - to visit. During the Second World War my grandfather was - amongst other things - the bodyguard to Lord Mountbatten during the signing of the Japanese surrender.
Lord Mountbatten was of course effectively the adoptive father of British Prince Phillip who went on to marry British Queen Elizabeth II. He was killed by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) at Sligo Water in 1979.
I never got to meet by grandfather. By all accounts though he was a bit of a big lad. He even managed to keep my very Welsh grandmother in line for a good few years.
The reason why I never got to meet my grandfather is that just before the Zimbabwe plan was meant to go into action I was conceived and he died of a heart attack. As a result the Zimbabwe plan was cancelled.
So apparently it's all my fault Mugabe didn't bring Zimbabwe into the UK Commonwealth. Which nothing else proves Church of England (CoE) 'Protestants' can believe in the Catholic Christian concept of "Original Sin." When it suits them.
Also long term readers may remember that in 2013 I some small legal issues involving an entirely false claim of racially motivated criminal damage. These allegations were thrown out of Court during COP19. My innocence was not even questioned.
However in the summer long process which took us to that point there was a short but serious discussion over whether Zimbabwe would grant me political asylum/refugee status. After all the Zimbabwe High Commission in London is just across the road from a certain police station.
On Wednesday (15/11/17) the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) held a parade to congratulate Mugabe on his retirement and his service to the nation. It seems that in part this parade was planned by China.
I understand China's contribution to this parade was to schedule it for during COP23. Their intention being to throw all the above in everyone's faces. The hope being to divert attention from how much they're going to make Climate Change worst by growing ghg's under the terms of the Paris Agreement.
Scheduling aside though I think China's motives were legitimate.
Plans for Robert Mugabe's retirement really began in 1996 when he married Grace Marufu. This gold-digging bitch has absolutely nothing to do with the patriotic war of independence.
They gathered speed in 2015 when Robert Mugabe delivered a speech at the opening of Parliament. It was the same speech he'd given as his state of the nation address just two months earlier. Sadly he got through the entire speech without noticing.
They gathered even more speed when last week Robert Mugabe declared that he had fired Zimbabwe's Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Despite VP Mnangagwa not being present in the meeting in which Robert Mugabe claimed he had fired him.
I gather that tomorrow the Zimbabwean people will also be holding a parade to congratulate Robert Mugabe on his retirement and his service to the nation.
I really hope I don't need to make a joke about them needing to hold another parade about two hours later.
19:15 on 17/11/17 (UK date).
Monday, 13 November 2017
The Sulaymaniyah Earthquake.
At 18:18 (GMT) yesterday (12/11/17) a 7.3 Magnitude earthquake struck along Iraq's border with Iraq. The 'quakes epicentre occurred at a shallow depth of just 12km (7 miles) around 30km (20 miles) south of the town of Halabja.
On March 16th 1988 (16/3/88) Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein attacked Halabja with a variety of chemical weapons including the nerve agents Sarin and VX. The attack was punishment against Iraq's Kurdish population who had sided with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. The attack killed at least 3,200 people and injured at least 7,000.
Any discussion about the use of chemical weapons - of which there have been many of late - is not really complete without mention of Halabja. However at the time international reaction was remarkably muted. The US even denied that its ally Iraq had committed such an atrocity and instead tried to blame it on their enemy Iran.
The entire area around Halabja sits on the faultline between the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates. So earthquakes are not unheard of in the part of the World. However this is certainly the largest and possibly only earthquake I can remember and I've been heavily involved in this region for the past, nearly four years.
In the winter of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran Iraq's south-western Anbar Province. In the summer of 2014 ISIL overran the north-eastern Nineveh Plains area of Iraq including the city of Mosul.
ISIL are an apocalyptic group. They believe their actions will bring about the end of the World. They also believe that this apocalypse will be preceded by an increase in natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and floods.
In April 2015 the central Iraqi city of Tikrit was liberated from ISIL.
In February and June 2016 the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar Province were liberated from ISIL.
In July 2017 the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was liberated from ISIL. This included the liberation of the entire Nineveh Plains area around Mosul and the area between Mosul and Tikrit. Particularly Hawija.
Although ISIL are clearly on the verge of their final battle there is some concern they maintain some presence in the mountainous areas of Sulaymaniyah Province. However this has not yet been confirmed to the point the Iraqis can go and do something about it.
While this has been going on the Iraqi Kurdish Region unilaterally held a vote declaring itself to be an independent nation state. This has led to weeks of tension as Iraqi forces have gradually pushed the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga force back into the Iraqi Kurdish Region from positions they seized in the fight against ISIL.
Sulaymaniyah is part of that Iraqi Kurdish Region. In fact if you include the Iranian Kurdish Region this hasn't been a cross-border earthquake at all. It has simply occurred in the central/southern area of Kurdistan.
The liberation of positions on the Iraq/Syria border west of Mosul led to people talking about the possibility of Iran creating a land bridge through Iraq and Syria.
Yesterday's (12/11/17) earthquake does look as though someone is physically trying to tear Iraq and Iran apart. Although technically I think it was caused by Iraq and Iran being pushed closer together.
Shia-Muslim Iran's main regional rival is Sunni-Muslim Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman is currently trying to modernise his country. This includes plans to build nuclear power stations to move away from fossil fuels like oil. There is understandably concern the plans for nuclear powers stations is actually a cover to build nuclear weapons to be used against Iran.
The earthquake occurred at the mid-way point of the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UNFCCC deals almost exclusively with Climate Change. However in order to understand Climate Change you also have to understand all other aspects of the natural environment.
Up until a few years many Climate Change deniers would point to the greenhouse gases (ghg's) released from natural sources such as volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions are tectonic events which are frequently accompanied by earthquakes. So in order to discuss tectonic events effect on Climate Change you must first understand earthquakes and volcanoes.
Within the business of the UNFCCC there is an area of work known as; "Adaptation." Although everything is interconnected this does not set out to address the causes of Climate Change. Instead it helps nations adapt to the natural disasters caused by Climate Change.
There is certainly no known link between Climate Change and earthquakes. However the natural disasters which are caused by Climate Change such as droughts and the associated famines are slow onset disasters. They take months and sometimes even years of ever so slight changes until their effects can be seen.
Earthquakes by contrast are swift and violent with their effects being seen instantly. As a result earthquakes are often used to highlight the stark difference between rich nation's ability to respond to natural disasters and poor nation's ability to respond.
For example if a 7.0 Magnitude earthquake strikes a rich nation like Japan all that will happen is the electricity and natural gas supply will cut out of around 10 minutes due to an automatic failsafe. If a 7.0 Magnitude earthquake strikes a poor nation like Haiti suddenly you're talking about 100,000+ dead and millions being made homeless.
One of the things that reduces the impact of earthquakes is a strong regulatory environment. In short regulations are passed to make sure buildings can withstand most earthquakes. Inspections are carried out to make sure those regulations are being followed and violators are prosecuted.
The UNFCCC hopes to use this approach to combat Climate Change. If you're passing and enforcing regulations to make sure buildings can withstand earthquakes, floods and hurricanes its quite easy to also have regulations making sure buildings are as energy efficient as possible.
At past COP Summits there has been extensive discussion of whether nuclear power plants of the type Saudi Arabia intends to build can be considered; "Green Technology." In short whether UNFCCC funds can be used to pay to build nuclear power plants for poorer nations.
In the end it was decided they can't be. The main argument against is that nuclear power is so complicated and potentially so dangerous they only way to do it safely is by building up a deep base of scientific knowledge. That comes only from building your own nuclear power plants rather than importing them from abroad.
The nuclear power debate within the UNFCCC was ended by the 9.0 Magnitude earthquake which struck Japan on March 11th 2010 (11/3/10). Amongst other things this caused a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Even as possibly the most technologically advanced nation on Earth the Japanese only just got away with that.
COP23 occurs at something of a strange time for the UNFCCC. At the COP21 Summit in 2015 the Paris Agreement was signed. However this does not go into effect until 2020. So at COP23 everyone is really sitting around waiting for either the Paris Agreement to take effect or to be scrapped.
Although there is certainly enough work to justify holding the COP23 Summit things are nowhere near as intense as the were at say COP21. As a result there is a bit of free time to discuss topics that are only loosely related to combating Climate Change.
As a result I am finding it hard to focus on and find a focus within COP23. At the same time I have a clear focus in Iraq and Syria from which I can't seem to escape.
So while I very much disagree with the Paris Agreement and think it needs to be scrapped and replaced I am not boycotting COP23 in protest. It just that amid a very hectic time for me I physically cannot find a way to make it a priority.
The big news to come of COP23 is that the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad has signed up to the Paris Agreement. This means that all nations have now signed up to the Paris Agreement although the US has since withdrawn from it.
Like the Paris Agreement itself Bashar al-Assad's decision to sign up to it has absolutely nothing to do with combating Climate Change. By accepting Syria as a party to the Paris Agreement the UN is being forced to confirm that the government of Bashar al-Assad is the government of Syria.
While not even I have been making it a priority the war in Syria and Iraq has actually had a negative and extremely widespread environmental impact.
The war in Syria started because Turkey wanted to seize the nation by force and run it as part of a new Ottoman Empire. However much like Climate Change deniers supporters of the war have come up with a series of often extremely outlandish alternative causes.
One of these is that between 2006 and 2011 Syria experienced one of the worst droughts in its history. The claim is that this drought raised food prices triggering popular protests against the government.
Although it isn't true in this case that scenario isn't that outlandish. The national anthem of France where the Paris Agreement was signed is full of lines about slitting the throats of the rich to use their blood to water the fields of the poor. That's because the French Revolution of 1789 was triggered by drought and food shortages.
One thing the war has done is dramatically changed landuse within Syria.
Done properly farming cares for the soil and cuts down of soil erosion. Since 2011 farming in Syria has all but stopped being replaced by people setting off bombs left, right and centre. Bombs are very bad for the soil. Describing a bomb crater as an example of soil erosion seems like the height of understatement.
On September 11th 2015 (11/9/15) there was a mass storm at Islam's holiest site - Mecca in Saudi Arabia. Amongst other things this killed 107 people and caused a construction crane to collapse onto one of Mecca's main Mosques.
At the time there was lots of legitimate discussion amongst environmental scientists over whether the increased soil erosion caused by the sectarian war between Muslims in Syria had caused the storm which damaged Mecca.
In an effort to dominate at COP23 amongst other things Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has been putting on his version of the UK's "Paradise Papers." This centres around mass arrests on corruption allegations.
The arrested include the head of the Bin Laden construction company. Whose crane collapsed on Mecca on September 11th 2015 (11/9/15). They also include people involved in the official response to the severe flooding Saudi Arabia experienced in 2016.
With UNFCCC circles there has long been discussion about so-called; "Water Wars." In short Climate Change makes droughts worse. This causes nations to fight wars over dwindling water supplies or use control of those water supplies as a weapon against others.
In the Syria conflict that has started to happen. The main river is really the Euphrates River. This starts in Turkey and runs through Syria and Iraq into the Persian Gulf.
Over the winter of 2016/17 there were extremely heavy rains. This lead to concern the Tabqa Dam which forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates in Syria could collapse under the weight of water. This concern forced the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conduct an operation to take control of Tabqa Dam in March 2017.
Immediately after the SDF had taken control of the Tabqa Dam Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan closed dams further upstream in Turkey. The intention being to starve Tabqa Dam of water to prevent the SDF from using it to generate electricity. When this failed Erdogan opened the floodgates in an attempt to flood SDF controlled areas.
Following yesterday's earthquake there is concern about damage to a number of dams across Sulaymaniyah Province.
As a provider of renewable energy hydroelectric dams are always a big talking point at COP Summits. They currently produce about 40% of the World's electricity and the UNFCCC would like to increase that number.
The other big environmental impact of the conflict is oil.
Rather than being refined in formal refineries the war has forced people to refine oil by the crude process. This involves slowly boiling oil in basically a metal bathtub until it turns into gasoline. This releases huge amounts of toxic chemicals into the air, soil and water.
Also ISIL in particular burn oil wells and tires to create toxic smoke to hide their positions from aircraft. In the Battle of Mosul they set fire to a Sulphur mountain close to Qarrayah.
Then you've got all the toxic chemicals and heavy metals released by bomb damaged buildings. I think the reconstruction of Mosul alone is going to provide the UNFCCC with case studies for years to come.
18:20 on 13/11/17 (UK date).
On March 16th 1988 (16/3/88) Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein attacked Halabja with a variety of chemical weapons including the nerve agents Sarin and VX. The attack was punishment against Iraq's Kurdish population who had sided with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. The attack killed at least 3,200 people and injured at least 7,000.
Any discussion about the use of chemical weapons - of which there have been many of late - is not really complete without mention of Halabja. However at the time international reaction was remarkably muted. The US even denied that its ally Iraq had committed such an atrocity and instead tried to blame it on their enemy Iran.
The entire area around Halabja sits on the faultline between the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates. So earthquakes are not unheard of in the part of the World. However this is certainly the largest and possibly only earthquake I can remember and I've been heavily involved in this region for the past, nearly four years.
In the winter of 2013 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran Iraq's south-western Anbar Province. In the summer of 2014 ISIL overran the north-eastern Nineveh Plains area of Iraq including the city of Mosul.
ISIL are an apocalyptic group. They believe their actions will bring about the end of the World. They also believe that this apocalypse will be preceded by an increase in natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and floods.
In April 2015 the central Iraqi city of Tikrit was liberated from ISIL.
In February and June 2016 the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar Province were liberated from ISIL.
In July 2017 the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was liberated from ISIL. This included the liberation of the entire Nineveh Plains area around Mosul and the area between Mosul and Tikrit. Particularly Hawija.
Although ISIL are clearly on the verge of their final battle there is some concern they maintain some presence in the mountainous areas of Sulaymaniyah Province. However this has not yet been confirmed to the point the Iraqis can go and do something about it.
While this has been going on the Iraqi Kurdish Region unilaterally held a vote declaring itself to be an independent nation state. This has led to weeks of tension as Iraqi forces have gradually pushed the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga force back into the Iraqi Kurdish Region from positions they seized in the fight against ISIL.
Sulaymaniyah is part of that Iraqi Kurdish Region. In fact if you include the Iranian Kurdish Region this hasn't been a cross-border earthquake at all. It has simply occurred in the central/southern area of Kurdistan.
The liberation of positions on the Iraq/Syria border west of Mosul led to people talking about the possibility of Iran creating a land bridge through Iraq and Syria.
Yesterday's (12/11/17) earthquake does look as though someone is physically trying to tear Iraq and Iran apart. Although technically I think it was caused by Iraq and Iran being pushed closer together.
Shia-Muslim Iran's main regional rival is Sunni-Muslim Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman is currently trying to modernise his country. This includes plans to build nuclear power stations to move away from fossil fuels like oil. There is understandably concern the plans for nuclear powers stations is actually a cover to build nuclear weapons to be used against Iran.
The earthquake occurred at the mid-way point of the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UNFCCC deals almost exclusively with Climate Change. However in order to understand Climate Change you also have to understand all other aspects of the natural environment.
Up until a few years many Climate Change deniers would point to the greenhouse gases (ghg's) released from natural sources such as volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions are tectonic events which are frequently accompanied by earthquakes. So in order to discuss tectonic events effect on Climate Change you must first understand earthquakes and volcanoes.
Within the business of the UNFCCC there is an area of work known as; "Adaptation." Although everything is interconnected this does not set out to address the causes of Climate Change. Instead it helps nations adapt to the natural disasters caused by Climate Change.
There is certainly no known link between Climate Change and earthquakes. However the natural disasters which are caused by Climate Change such as droughts and the associated famines are slow onset disasters. They take months and sometimes even years of ever so slight changes until their effects can be seen.
Earthquakes by contrast are swift and violent with their effects being seen instantly. As a result earthquakes are often used to highlight the stark difference between rich nation's ability to respond to natural disasters and poor nation's ability to respond.
For example if a 7.0 Magnitude earthquake strikes a rich nation like Japan all that will happen is the electricity and natural gas supply will cut out of around 10 minutes due to an automatic failsafe. If a 7.0 Magnitude earthquake strikes a poor nation like Haiti suddenly you're talking about 100,000+ dead and millions being made homeless.
One of the things that reduces the impact of earthquakes is a strong regulatory environment. In short regulations are passed to make sure buildings can withstand most earthquakes. Inspections are carried out to make sure those regulations are being followed and violators are prosecuted.
The UNFCCC hopes to use this approach to combat Climate Change. If you're passing and enforcing regulations to make sure buildings can withstand earthquakes, floods and hurricanes its quite easy to also have regulations making sure buildings are as energy efficient as possible.
At past COP Summits there has been extensive discussion of whether nuclear power plants of the type Saudi Arabia intends to build can be considered; "Green Technology." In short whether UNFCCC funds can be used to pay to build nuclear power plants for poorer nations.
In the end it was decided they can't be. The main argument against is that nuclear power is so complicated and potentially so dangerous they only way to do it safely is by building up a deep base of scientific knowledge. That comes only from building your own nuclear power plants rather than importing them from abroad.
The nuclear power debate within the UNFCCC was ended by the 9.0 Magnitude earthquake which struck Japan on March 11th 2010 (11/3/10). Amongst other things this caused a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Even as possibly the most technologically advanced nation on Earth the Japanese only just got away with that.
COP23 occurs at something of a strange time for the UNFCCC. At the COP21 Summit in 2015 the Paris Agreement was signed. However this does not go into effect until 2020. So at COP23 everyone is really sitting around waiting for either the Paris Agreement to take effect or to be scrapped.
Although there is certainly enough work to justify holding the COP23 Summit things are nowhere near as intense as the were at say COP21. As a result there is a bit of free time to discuss topics that are only loosely related to combating Climate Change.
As a result I am finding it hard to focus on and find a focus within COP23. At the same time I have a clear focus in Iraq and Syria from which I can't seem to escape.
So while I very much disagree with the Paris Agreement and think it needs to be scrapped and replaced I am not boycotting COP23 in protest. It just that amid a very hectic time for me I physically cannot find a way to make it a priority.
The big news to come of COP23 is that the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad has signed up to the Paris Agreement. This means that all nations have now signed up to the Paris Agreement although the US has since withdrawn from it.
Like the Paris Agreement itself Bashar al-Assad's decision to sign up to it has absolutely nothing to do with combating Climate Change. By accepting Syria as a party to the Paris Agreement the UN is being forced to confirm that the government of Bashar al-Assad is the government of Syria.
While not even I have been making it a priority the war in Syria and Iraq has actually had a negative and extremely widespread environmental impact.
The war in Syria started because Turkey wanted to seize the nation by force and run it as part of a new Ottoman Empire. However much like Climate Change deniers supporters of the war have come up with a series of often extremely outlandish alternative causes.
One of these is that between 2006 and 2011 Syria experienced one of the worst droughts in its history. The claim is that this drought raised food prices triggering popular protests against the government.
Although it isn't true in this case that scenario isn't that outlandish. The national anthem of France where the Paris Agreement was signed is full of lines about slitting the throats of the rich to use their blood to water the fields of the poor. That's because the French Revolution of 1789 was triggered by drought and food shortages.
One thing the war has done is dramatically changed landuse within Syria.
Done properly farming cares for the soil and cuts down of soil erosion. Since 2011 farming in Syria has all but stopped being replaced by people setting off bombs left, right and centre. Bombs are very bad for the soil. Describing a bomb crater as an example of soil erosion seems like the height of understatement.
On September 11th 2015 (11/9/15) there was a mass storm at Islam's holiest site - Mecca in Saudi Arabia. Amongst other things this killed 107 people and caused a construction crane to collapse onto one of Mecca's main Mosques.
At the time there was lots of legitimate discussion amongst environmental scientists over whether the increased soil erosion caused by the sectarian war between Muslims in Syria had caused the storm which damaged Mecca.
In an effort to dominate at COP23 amongst other things Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has been putting on his version of the UK's "Paradise Papers." This centres around mass arrests on corruption allegations.
The arrested include the head of the Bin Laden construction company. Whose crane collapsed on Mecca on September 11th 2015 (11/9/15). They also include people involved in the official response to the severe flooding Saudi Arabia experienced in 2016.
With UNFCCC circles there has long been discussion about so-called; "Water Wars." In short Climate Change makes droughts worse. This causes nations to fight wars over dwindling water supplies or use control of those water supplies as a weapon against others.
In the Syria conflict that has started to happen. The main river is really the Euphrates River. This starts in Turkey and runs through Syria and Iraq into the Persian Gulf.
Over the winter of 2016/17 there were extremely heavy rains. This lead to concern the Tabqa Dam which forms Lake Assad out of the Euphrates in Syria could collapse under the weight of water. This concern forced the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conduct an operation to take control of Tabqa Dam in March 2017.
Immediately after the SDF had taken control of the Tabqa Dam Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan closed dams further upstream in Turkey. The intention being to starve Tabqa Dam of water to prevent the SDF from using it to generate electricity. When this failed Erdogan opened the floodgates in an attempt to flood SDF controlled areas.
Following yesterday's earthquake there is concern about damage to a number of dams across Sulaymaniyah Province.
As a provider of renewable energy hydroelectric dams are always a big talking point at COP Summits. They currently produce about 40% of the World's electricity and the UNFCCC would like to increase that number.
The other big environmental impact of the conflict is oil.
Rather than being refined in formal refineries the war has forced people to refine oil by the crude process. This involves slowly boiling oil in basically a metal bathtub until it turns into gasoline. This releases huge amounts of toxic chemicals into the air, soil and water.
Also ISIL in particular burn oil wells and tires to create toxic smoke to hide their positions from aircraft. In the Battle of Mosul they set fire to a Sulphur mountain close to Qarrayah.
Then you've got all the toxic chemicals and heavy metals released by bomb damaged buildings. I think the reconstruction of Mosul alone is going to provide the UNFCCC with case studies for years to come.
18:20 on 13/11/17 (UK date).
Saturday, 11 November 2017
Operation Featherweight: Month 40, Week 4, Day 4.
This should be read as a continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/operation-featherweight-month-40-week-4_10.html
What has allowed the Syrians to turn their attention fully on ISIL is an agreement to suspend fighting with the other main terror group operating in the country; The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah.
This agreement was reached as part of the Astana Process on Syria. Formed in December 2016 This sees Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria meet periodically to discuss the conflict.
The first round of meetings in the Astana Process resulted in the announcement of a ceasefire of December 27th (27/12/16). This is known as the Astana Ceasefire.
Since its creation it has never been clear who the Astana Ceasefire does and does not apply to.
In line UN Security Council Resolution 2170 it does not apply to either ISIL or The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra. At the insistence of Turkey is also does not apply to the SDF.
The confusion comes from the fact that the largest faction within the Army of Conquest is Al Qaeda's affiliate the Support Front.
The second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.
Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves.
Other factions within the Army of Conquest include the small but extremely nasty Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) who are linked to Saudi Arabia and Islamist fragments of the now defunct FSA.
This creates the question of whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest. Or does the presence of Al Qaeda within the coalition exclude all members of the coalition?
The fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process held on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17). Here a suggestion was adopted to solve the problem with the Astana Ceasefire.
Rather than arguing about the extent of an individual group's affiliation to Al Qaeda four zones were established in areas where ISIL are not considered to be active. In these zones all fighting would be suspended regardless of whether that included Al Qaeda or not.
Four of these what are termed "Astana Zones" were created.
One was in the north of the country in Idlib Province centred around Idlib City. This area had already being designated; "The Sudetenland." In reference to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's desire to annex it as part of his new Ottoman Empire. Exactly like Adolf Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Another two Astana Zones were created in central Syria. In and around Homs Province and in and around the capital Damascus. Particularly the East Ghouta suburb.
The fourth Astana Zone was created in southern Syria. In Deraa and Quneitra Provinces which border Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights.
Obviously the parties to the Astana Process agreed to these four zones for their own reasons.
For example Erdogan agreed to the establishment of the northern zone because he saw it as a way to annex the Sudetenland. The Syrians agreed to the central zones to free up resources to allow them to go and fight ISIL at the other side of the country.
However the one zone everyone could agree on was the southern zone.
Fighting in this area frequently saw artillery and rocket fire stray into Israel. Periodically Israel would respond attacking the group(s) responsible for the stray fire.
The conflict with in Syria is essentially a sectarian one between Sunni and Shia Muslims. What Sunni groups like the Army of Conquest and ISIL mean when they say they're being "oppressed" is that they're being forced to breath the same air as Shias.
Probably the only thing that unites the Sunnis and the Shias involved in the conflict is their shared hatred for Jews and Israeli Jews in particular.
As a result absolutely no party wants to see Israel join the conflict on their side. It would allow their opponents to portray themselves as the true Muslims and their opponents as the puppets of the Zionist state.
I mean can you imagine what it would do for the street-cred of ISIL, Al Qaeda or Hezbollah if Israel suddenly started acting as their air force?!
Within both the Astana Process and the UN sponsored Geneva Process the Army of Conquest are represented under the name; "Syrian Opposition" by Mohammad Alloush. He is the leader of the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam group who are based in southern and central Syria. Particularly in the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus.
In July 2015 a series of propaganda video emerged showing prisoners being beheaded. This was very similar to the many execution videos ISIL released.
The twist though was that in these videos it was ISIL fighters who were the prisoners. They were being executed by members of the Army of Islam for not being extreme enough in their slaughter of the "apostate" Shias.
So in comparison to what is being internationally recognised as the "Syrian Opposition" ISIL are actually the moderates.
The seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process took place on October 30th (30/10/17) and October 31st (31/10/17).
In his role as the representative as the opposition Mohammad Alloush brought a long list of demands with him. These included primarily a demand for more international support to be given to the Army of Conquest and for Army of Conquest prisoners to be freed. Particularly from Homs Central Prison.
Russia approached this round of talks with a suggestion of its own. The Army of Conquest, the Syrians and the SDF meet directly. Either at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria or in Sochi, Russia. Something that Alloush had already indicated he would be very opposed to.
The seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process ended without a single concession on Alloush's demands. It did though end with an agreement from Turkey at least that the Army of Conquest, the Syrians and the SDF would meet for direct talks in Sochi on November 18th (18/11/17).
However since then Alloush has announced that the Army of Conquest will be boycotting the meeting. Turkey has also announced that it will also being boycotting the meeting if the SDF attend. The SDF already have some contact with the Syrians through the Russians. As a result the Sochi meeting has been postponed.
That is why I refer to "meetings within the process" rather than "talks." The talks never stop.
Alloush and the Army of Conquest have approached the Astana Process in much the same way as they've approached the Geneva Process.
They see them not as mechanisms to achieve peace in Syria. Instead they see them simply as a mechanism to remove Syria's secular government and put themselves in power.
As a result Alloush and the Army of Conquest are becoming extremely frustrated with particularly the Astana Process.
At around 17:50 on 11/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up later.
Edited at around 20:10 on 11/11/17 (UK date) to add;
Amid this frustration Alloush and the Army of Conquest growing ever more exercised in recent weeks.
In preparation for the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process the Army of Islam jacked up food prices in East Ghouta which they control. This meant that although there was ample food in the shops the poorer residents could not afford to buy it and a small number began to starve to death.
The Army of Islam then took photographs of their victims - particularly the photogenic babies - and circulated them on the Internet.
The intention being to force international aid agencies such as the UN and the Red Cross/Crescent to deliver more food aid. Which the Army of Islam would then sell at a massively inflated price using the proceeds to fund more terror attacks.
It must be said that legally and morally it is extremely difficult to explain why international aid agencies such as the UN and the Red Cross/Crescent feel they are able to operate in Army of Conquest controlled areas.
Following the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process the Army of Islam became even more aggressive. They teamed up with Al Qaeda to form the Army of Mohammad (Alloush)/Jaish al-Mohammad Operations Room.
On November 3rd (3/11/17) this newly formed Army of Mohammad launched an operation designated; "Break the Chains of Harmon." The objective of this operation was to advance from an area known as the; "Beit Jinn Pocket" to the nearby Druze town of Hadar.
The Beit Jinn Pocket sits around 30km (15 miles) south-west of the West Ghouta suburb of Damascus. The town of Hadar sits around 5km (3 miles) beyond the Beit Jinn Pocket.
Both of them sit in the Syrian Golan Heights. The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) peacekeeping zone actually runs through Hadar and parts of the Beit Jinn Pocket.
The Druze are followers of an ancient religion quite unlike any other. The closest thing I can think of to compare their belief system to is the Unified Field Theory of Quantum Physics.
The Druze consider God to be physically present in all things at all times. They are very into numerology and the power of colour. They worship five key colours each representing a metaphysical power.
However if their sacred text the Epistles of Wisdom doesn't cover a subject they will seek guidance from other sacred text. After all they believe God is within those texts.
As such the Druze also follow practises commonly found in Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism. Even classical Greek and Roman philosophers.
One of the key differences between Sunni and Shia Muslims is that the Sunnis believe the Prophet Mohammad was God's final prophet. Shias believe there is one more prophet yet to be sent.
As a result Shias believe the Qu'ran can be interpreted by scholars while Sunnis believe it is not open to interpretation by humans. Shias sometimes venerate some of these scholars in rather the same way Catholics venerate Saints.
Druze believe that all things - including religious texts - can be interpreted on three levels; "Zahir," "Batin" and "Anagoge."
As a result when they interpret aspects of the Muslim faith they tend to lean toward the Shia branch of the religion. However they are Druze rather than Muslims so aren't either Sunni or Shia.
The important thing to remember though is that Salafi Sunni groups such as ISIL, Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam view the Druze in the same way they view followers of the Yezidi religion;
They are devil worshippers - worse even than the Jews - and they must be exterminated.
As they are a religion rather than a ethnic or national group you get Druze in all sorts of countries including Germany, Colombia, Australia and Canada. However the majority of them are spread across Israel, Syria and Lebanon.
Probably the most famous Druze at the moment is Amal Clooney. She's Lebanese born and currently lives in the US.
I am not going to re-argue the Six Day War here. However in 1967 Israel militarily took control of the Golan Heights.
This split Druze families apart. You had people who were convinced they were Syrian Druze like their parents and cousins suddenly waking up to discover they were in fact Israeli Druze.
At the best of times the Golan Heights are a delicate subject. There is after all the UNDOF peacekeeping force deployed there.
Along with the West Bank the Israeli Golan Heights are considered part of the 1967 Occupied Territories. However if Israel were to withdraw the Golan Heights would be returned to Syria rather than Palestine.
In the summer of 2015 the Army of Conquest - particularly the Army of Islam - conducted a series of massacres in Syrian Druze villages. Most notably in Qalb Lawza.
This genocide sent many Syrian Druze fleeing to safety in Israel. It also made the relatives of the massacred living in Israel extremely angry.
At the time the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) highly elite Golani Brigade were engaged in some battlefield diplomacy. They would occasionally allow wounded fighters belonging to the Army of Conquest into Israel for medical treatment.
Rather than being support this was a situation where people were pointing guns at each other. The alternative to allowing the wounded medical treatment was a full on shooting war.
When the Army of Conquest started massacring Syrian Druze Israeli Druze rioted through the streets in protest at Israel providing the Army of Conquest with medical care. This went so far that they hijacked IDF ambulances and killed the Army of Conquest fighters within.
Obviously Israel stopped providing the Army of Conquest with medical care.
The Army of Mohammad's objective in the Chains of Harmon offensive was to provoke this same backlash from Israel's Druze. The hope being that it would force Israel to act militarily against the Army of Muhammad to protect Syria's Druze.
In fact in an extremely rare move on November 4th (4/11/17) Israel said publicly that it would be prepared to intervene militarily in Syria to prevent a genocide at Hadar.
The Army of Mohammad's thinking was that if the IDF did fight them it would reinvigorate their cause. It would allow them to present the Syrian government as puppets of the "Evil Zionist Regime" and they as the only true Muslims prepared to slaughter the Jews.
Failing that it would tear apart the only Astana Zone that everyone can agree on. Hopefully bringing down the entire Astana Process with it. Fighting has also recently increased across all of the Astana Zones.
In the end the Israelis allowed Syrian Druze militias into Israel and then back into Syria to defend Hadar. By November 6th (6/11/17) the Chains of Harmon offensive ended in a decisive Syrian Druze victory.
As you would expect the Army of Mohammad has blamed the failure of the offensive on; "Collusion between the apostate Syrian Regime and the Zionists."
The US was granted observer status within the Astana Process back in January 2017. However the UK remains excluded.
In an effort to be included in the Astana Process the UK has been focusing its efforts on its relationship with Israel and this southern Astana Zone. After all you can quite clearly see into this Astana Zone from Israel.
Over the summer the UK's then Secretary of State (Senior Minister) for International Development Priti Patel held a series of off-the-books, back-channel meetings with various Israeli officials. This is a story that has been rumbling quietly in the British media for a couple of weeks now.
However it really exploded on - I think - Tuesday (7/11/17). It emerged that Ms Patel had visited the Israeli Golan Heights and suggested British aid money could be given to refugees there. The Syrian Druze who'd escaped genocide both in 2015 and earlier that week.
As longtime supporters of the Palestinian cause this made the UK Labour Party apoplectic with rage. They demanded that Ms Patel be fired from the government and on Wednesday (8/11/17) she was. Prompting talk about whether the Conservative government which lacks a Parliamentary majority could survive.
In doing this the UK Labour Party made themselves look extremely foolish.
For starters they publicly declared that keeping the British public safe from Islamist terrorism and protecting a religious minority from genocide were both things so shameful if you were to do it you should be fired immediately. Hardly in line with the image of a caring party Labour are trying to project.
Mainly though this was part of a wider British plan. Both for this week's Brexit negotiations and the ongoing 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23)to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Labour did not realise its role in this wider plan.
One of the most famous terror groups currently operating in Syria are a group calling themselves; "Syrian Civil Defence" who are often referred to as the "White Helmets." Although they claim to be a humanitarian group they are an armed terror group, indistinguishable from other groups such as the Army of Islam, Al Qaeda or ISIL.
The White Helmets played a key role in helping the Army of Islam starve civilians to death in East Ghouta as part of the preparations for the most recent round of Astana Meetings.
The White Helmets most high profile supporter in the UK was Labour MP Jo Cox. In June 2016 Jo Cox was eliminated by the British Security Service as a threat to national security. On Tuesday (7/11/17) the British Queen was handing out medals over the killing of Jo Cox.
This was intended to raise questions amongst Brexit and COP23 delegates;
Was the UK Labour Party calling for Priti Patel to be fired out of a deep, ideological support for the Army of Conquest. Or were they just blindly trying to bring down the government in a quest for power with absolutely no understanding of the wider issues?
I think you know which way I'm leaning on that question.
At COP23 in particular that was very stupid thing for Labour to be doing. Their last big effort to bring down the government and seize power was the June 13th (13/6/17) Grenfell Tower fire.
In part that fire was spread due to cladding attached to the outside of the building. Labour claim the cladding had been fitted for purely aesthetic reasons. The implication being that the evil Conservatives didn't want to look at poor people.
That Labour claim is whole and total lie. The cladding was fitted to reduce heat transfer and therefore greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions to allow Britain to meet its obligations under the UNFCCC.
So although it isn't officially on the agenda it is inevitable that the Grenfell Tower fire will come up at COP23.
There it will be discussed by fire investigators who may well have reached conclusions on the causes of the fire that are very different to the version of events London's Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan is currently trying to convince voters is true.
The UK is certainly interested in whether of those fire investigators are going to go public with their findings.
Also Priti Patel is a Hindu of Ugandan-Indian immigrant parents. These are some of the Indians that Idi Amin expelled from Uganda.
The major flaw of the Paris Agreement which serves the UNFCCC is that it is not legally enforceable. That means that nobody is actually obligated to do anything to combat climate.
Funnily enough with the exception of US President Trump politicians in many nations have had no trouble signing up to an agreement that doesn't require them to do anything.
Even within this honour based system nations like India are actually pledging to grow their ghg emissions. India is currently the World's fourth largest emitter of ghg's.
The current Prime Minister of India is Narendra Modi. He is a Hindu nationalists and his followers really do not like Muslims.
This dislike of Muslims has led to Modi being a big supporter of Israel. Just this week the Indian Air Force is participating in Israel's Blue Flag military exercises for the very first time.
Getting an Indian Hindu caught up in an Islamphobia scandal seems a good way for the UK to give Modi a poke in the ribs over his support for the Paris Agreement.
22:30 on 11/11/17 (UK date).
What has allowed the Syrians to turn their attention fully on ISIL is an agreement to suspend fighting with the other main terror group operating in the country; The Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah.
This agreement was reached as part of the Astana Process on Syria. Formed in December 2016 This sees Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria meet periodically to discuss the conflict.
The first round of meetings in the Astana Process resulted in the announcement of a ceasefire of December 27th (27/12/16). This is known as the Astana Ceasefire.
Since its creation it has never been clear who the Astana Ceasefire does and does not apply to.
In line UN Security Council Resolution 2170 it does not apply to either ISIL or The Base/Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra. At the insistence of Turkey is also does not apply to the SDF.
The confusion comes from the fact that the largest faction within the Army of Conquest is Al Qaeda's affiliate the Support Front.
The second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.
Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves.
Other factions within the Army of Conquest include the small but extremely nasty Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) who are linked to Saudi Arabia and Islamist fragments of the now defunct FSA.
This creates the question of whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest. Or does the presence of Al Qaeda within the coalition exclude all members of the coalition?
The fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process held on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17). Here a suggestion was adopted to solve the problem with the Astana Ceasefire.
Rather than arguing about the extent of an individual group's affiliation to Al Qaeda four zones were established in areas where ISIL are not considered to be active. In these zones all fighting would be suspended regardless of whether that included Al Qaeda or not.
Four of these what are termed "Astana Zones" were created.
One was in the north of the country in Idlib Province centred around Idlib City. This area had already being designated; "The Sudetenland." In reference to Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's desire to annex it as part of his new Ottoman Empire. Exactly like Adolf Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Another two Astana Zones were created in central Syria. In and around Homs Province and in and around the capital Damascus. Particularly the East Ghouta suburb.
The fourth Astana Zone was created in southern Syria. In Deraa and Quneitra Provinces which border Jordan and Israel including the disputed Golan Heights.
Obviously the parties to the Astana Process agreed to these four zones for their own reasons.
For example Erdogan agreed to the establishment of the northern zone because he saw it as a way to annex the Sudetenland. The Syrians agreed to the central zones to free up resources to allow them to go and fight ISIL at the other side of the country.
However the one zone everyone could agree on was the southern zone.
Fighting in this area frequently saw artillery and rocket fire stray into Israel. Periodically Israel would respond attacking the group(s) responsible for the stray fire.
The conflict with in Syria is essentially a sectarian one between Sunni and Shia Muslims. What Sunni groups like the Army of Conquest and ISIL mean when they say they're being "oppressed" is that they're being forced to breath the same air as Shias.
Probably the only thing that unites the Sunnis and the Shias involved in the conflict is their shared hatred for Jews and Israeli Jews in particular.
As a result absolutely no party wants to see Israel join the conflict on their side. It would allow their opponents to portray themselves as the true Muslims and their opponents as the puppets of the Zionist state.
I mean can you imagine what it would do for the street-cred of ISIL, Al Qaeda or Hezbollah if Israel suddenly started acting as their air force?!
Within both the Astana Process and the UN sponsored Geneva Process the Army of Conquest are represented under the name; "Syrian Opposition" by Mohammad Alloush. He is the leader of the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam group who are based in southern and central Syria. Particularly in the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus.
In July 2015 a series of propaganda video emerged showing prisoners being beheaded. This was very similar to the many execution videos ISIL released.
The twist though was that in these videos it was ISIL fighters who were the prisoners. They were being executed by members of the Army of Islam for not being extreme enough in their slaughter of the "apostate" Shias.
So in comparison to what is being internationally recognised as the "Syrian Opposition" ISIL are actually the moderates.
The seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process took place on October 30th (30/10/17) and October 31st (31/10/17).
In his role as the representative as the opposition Mohammad Alloush brought a long list of demands with him. These included primarily a demand for more international support to be given to the Army of Conquest and for Army of Conquest prisoners to be freed. Particularly from Homs Central Prison.
Russia approached this round of talks with a suggestion of its own. The Army of Conquest, the Syrians and the SDF meet directly. Either at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria or in Sochi, Russia. Something that Alloush had already indicated he would be very opposed to.
The seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process ended without a single concession on Alloush's demands. It did though end with an agreement from Turkey at least that the Army of Conquest, the Syrians and the SDF would meet for direct talks in Sochi on November 18th (18/11/17).
However since then Alloush has announced that the Army of Conquest will be boycotting the meeting. Turkey has also announced that it will also being boycotting the meeting if the SDF attend. The SDF already have some contact with the Syrians through the Russians. As a result the Sochi meeting has been postponed.
That is why I refer to "meetings within the process" rather than "talks." The talks never stop.
Alloush and the Army of Conquest have approached the Astana Process in much the same way as they've approached the Geneva Process.
They see them not as mechanisms to achieve peace in Syria. Instead they see them simply as a mechanism to remove Syria's secular government and put themselves in power.
As a result Alloush and the Army of Conquest are becoming extremely frustrated with particularly the Astana Process.
At around 17:50 on 11/11/17 (UK date) I will have to pick this up later.
Edited at around 20:10 on 11/11/17 (UK date) to add;
Amid this frustration Alloush and the Army of Conquest growing ever more exercised in recent weeks.
In preparation for the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process the Army of Islam jacked up food prices in East Ghouta which they control. This meant that although there was ample food in the shops the poorer residents could not afford to buy it and a small number began to starve to death.
The Army of Islam then took photographs of their victims - particularly the photogenic babies - and circulated them on the Internet.
The intention being to force international aid agencies such as the UN and the Red Cross/Crescent to deliver more food aid. Which the Army of Islam would then sell at a massively inflated price using the proceeds to fund more terror attacks.
It must be said that legally and morally it is extremely difficult to explain why international aid agencies such as the UN and the Red Cross/Crescent feel they are able to operate in Army of Conquest controlled areas.
Following the seventh round of meetings in the Astana Process the Army of Islam became even more aggressive. They teamed up with Al Qaeda to form the Army of Mohammad (Alloush)/Jaish al-Mohammad Operations Room.
On November 3rd (3/11/17) this newly formed Army of Mohammad launched an operation designated; "Break the Chains of Harmon." The objective of this operation was to advance from an area known as the; "Beit Jinn Pocket" to the nearby Druze town of Hadar.
The Beit Jinn Pocket sits around 30km (15 miles) south-west of the West Ghouta suburb of Damascus. The town of Hadar sits around 5km (3 miles) beyond the Beit Jinn Pocket.
Both of them sit in the Syrian Golan Heights. The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) peacekeeping zone actually runs through Hadar and parts of the Beit Jinn Pocket.
The Druze are followers of an ancient religion quite unlike any other. The closest thing I can think of to compare their belief system to is the Unified Field Theory of Quantum Physics.
The Druze consider God to be physically present in all things at all times. They are very into numerology and the power of colour. They worship five key colours each representing a metaphysical power.
However if their sacred text the Epistles of Wisdom doesn't cover a subject they will seek guidance from other sacred text. After all they believe God is within those texts.
As such the Druze also follow practises commonly found in Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism. Even classical Greek and Roman philosophers.
One of the key differences between Sunni and Shia Muslims is that the Sunnis believe the Prophet Mohammad was God's final prophet. Shias believe there is one more prophet yet to be sent.
As a result Shias believe the Qu'ran can be interpreted by scholars while Sunnis believe it is not open to interpretation by humans. Shias sometimes venerate some of these scholars in rather the same way Catholics venerate Saints.
Druze believe that all things - including religious texts - can be interpreted on three levels; "Zahir," "Batin" and "Anagoge."
As a result when they interpret aspects of the Muslim faith they tend to lean toward the Shia branch of the religion. However they are Druze rather than Muslims so aren't either Sunni or Shia.
The important thing to remember though is that Salafi Sunni groups such as ISIL, Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam view the Druze in the same way they view followers of the Yezidi religion;
They are devil worshippers - worse even than the Jews - and they must be exterminated.
As they are a religion rather than a ethnic or national group you get Druze in all sorts of countries including Germany, Colombia, Australia and Canada. However the majority of them are spread across Israel, Syria and Lebanon.
Probably the most famous Druze at the moment is Amal Clooney. She's Lebanese born and currently lives in the US.
I am not going to re-argue the Six Day War here. However in 1967 Israel militarily took control of the Golan Heights.
This split Druze families apart. You had people who were convinced they were Syrian Druze like their parents and cousins suddenly waking up to discover they were in fact Israeli Druze.
At the best of times the Golan Heights are a delicate subject. There is after all the UNDOF peacekeeping force deployed there.
Along with the West Bank the Israeli Golan Heights are considered part of the 1967 Occupied Territories. However if Israel were to withdraw the Golan Heights would be returned to Syria rather than Palestine.
In the summer of 2015 the Army of Conquest - particularly the Army of Islam - conducted a series of massacres in Syrian Druze villages. Most notably in Qalb Lawza.
This genocide sent many Syrian Druze fleeing to safety in Israel. It also made the relatives of the massacred living in Israel extremely angry.
At the time the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) highly elite Golani Brigade were engaged in some battlefield diplomacy. They would occasionally allow wounded fighters belonging to the Army of Conquest into Israel for medical treatment.
Rather than being support this was a situation where people were pointing guns at each other. The alternative to allowing the wounded medical treatment was a full on shooting war.
When the Army of Conquest started massacring Syrian Druze Israeli Druze rioted through the streets in protest at Israel providing the Army of Conquest with medical care. This went so far that they hijacked IDF ambulances and killed the Army of Conquest fighters within.
Obviously Israel stopped providing the Army of Conquest with medical care.
The Army of Mohammad's objective in the Chains of Harmon offensive was to provoke this same backlash from Israel's Druze. The hope being that it would force Israel to act militarily against the Army of Muhammad to protect Syria's Druze.
In fact in an extremely rare move on November 4th (4/11/17) Israel said publicly that it would be prepared to intervene militarily in Syria to prevent a genocide at Hadar.
The Army of Mohammad's thinking was that if the IDF did fight them it would reinvigorate their cause. It would allow them to present the Syrian government as puppets of the "Evil Zionist Regime" and they as the only true Muslims prepared to slaughter the Jews.
Failing that it would tear apart the only Astana Zone that everyone can agree on. Hopefully bringing down the entire Astana Process with it. Fighting has also recently increased across all of the Astana Zones.
In the end the Israelis allowed Syrian Druze militias into Israel and then back into Syria to defend Hadar. By November 6th (6/11/17) the Chains of Harmon offensive ended in a decisive Syrian Druze victory.
As you would expect the Army of Mohammad has blamed the failure of the offensive on; "Collusion between the apostate Syrian Regime and the Zionists."
The US was granted observer status within the Astana Process back in January 2017. However the UK remains excluded.
In an effort to be included in the Astana Process the UK has been focusing its efforts on its relationship with Israel and this southern Astana Zone. After all you can quite clearly see into this Astana Zone from Israel.
Over the summer the UK's then Secretary of State (Senior Minister) for International Development Priti Patel held a series of off-the-books, back-channel meetings with various Israeli officials. This is a story that has been rumbling quietly in the British media for a couple of weeks now.
However it really exploded on - I think - Tuesday (7/11/17). It emerged that Ms Patel had visited the Israeli Golan Heights and suggested British aid money could be given to refugees there. The Syrian Druze who'd escaped genocide both in 2015 and earlier that week.
As longtime supporters of the Palestinian cause this made the UK Labour Party apoplectic with rage. They demanded that Ms Patel be fired from the government and on Wednesday (8/11/17) she was. Prompting talk about whether the Conservative government which lacks a Parliamentary majority could survive.
In doing this the UK Labour Party made themselves look extremely foolish.
For starters they publicly declared that keeping the British public safe from Islamist terrorism and protecting a religious minority from genocide were both things so shameful if you were to do it you should be fired immediately. Hardly in line with the image of a caring party Labour are trying to project.
Mainly though this was part of a wider British plan. Both for this week's Brexit negotiations and the ongoing 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23)to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Labour did not realise its role in this wider plan.
One of the most famous terror groups currently operating in Syria are a group calling themselves; "Syrian Civil Defence" who are often referred to as the "White Helmets." Although they claim to be a humanitarian group they are an armed terror group, indistinguishable from other groups such as the Army of Islam, Al Qaeda or ISIL.
The White Helmets played a key role in helping the Army of Islam starve civilians to death in East Ghouta as part of the preparations for the most recent round of Astana Meetings.
The White Helmets most high profile supporter in the UK was Labour MP Jo Cox. In June 2016 Jo Cox was eliminated by the British Security Service as a threat to national security. On Tuesday (7/11/17) the British Queen was handing out medals over the killing of Jo Cox.
This was intended to raise questions amongst Brexit and COP23 delegates;
Was the UK Labour Party calling for Priti Patel to be fired out of a deep, ideological support for the Army of Conquest. Or were they just blindly trying to bring down the government in a quest for power with absolutely no understanding of the wider issues?
I think you know which way I'm leaning on that question.
At COP23 in particular that was very stupid thing for Labour to be doing. Their last big effort to bring down the government and seize power was the June 13th (13/6/17) Grenfell Tower fire.
In part that fire was spread due to cladding attached to the outside of the building. Labour claim the cladding had been fitted for purely aesthetic reasons. The implication being that the evil Conservatives didn't want to look at poor people.
That Labour claim is whole and total lie. The cladding was fitted to reduce heat transfer and therefore greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions to allow Britain to meet its obligations under the UNFCCC.
So although it isn't officially on the agenda it is inevitable that the Grenfell Tower fire will come up at COP23.
There it will be discussed by fire investigators who may well have reached conclusions on the causes of the fire that are very different to the version of events London's Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan is currently trying to convince voters is true.
The UK is certainly interested in whether of those fire investigators are going to go public with their findings.
Also Priti Patel is a Hindu of Ugandan-Indian immigrant parents. These are some of the Indians that Idi Amin expelled from Uganda.
The major flaw of the Paris Agreement which serves the UNFCCC is that it is not legally enforceable. That means that nobody is actually obligated to do anything to combat climate.
Funnily enough with the exception of US President Trump politicians in many nations have had no trouble signing up to an agreement that doesn't require them to do anything.
Even within this honour based system nations like India are actually pledging to grow their ghg emissions. India is currently the World's fourth largest emitter of ghg's.
The current Prime Minister of India is Narendra Modi. He is a Hindu nationalists and his followers really do not like Muslims.
This dislike of Muslims has led to Modi being a big supporter of Israel. Just this week the Indian Air Force is participating in Israel's Blue Flag military exercises for the very first time.
Getting an Indian Hindu caught up in an Islamphobia scandal seems a good way for the UK to give Modi a poke in the ribs over his support for the Paris Agreement.
22:30 on 11/11/17 (UK date).
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