COP-17/CMP-7: The High Level Segment.

As they enter their second week the COP17/CMP7 Summits begin their high level segment. This is when high level delegates including Heads of State/Governments begin to arrive and the big decisions are made.

Unfortunately this year I've faced significant problems keeping up with the progress of the Summits. The first issue of course is time. As you may have heard I've had a bit of court case going on this week. On Wednesday (30/11/11) I also received that questionnaire from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) although that doesn't need to be completed until the end of December meaning that the earliest a decision could be made is January. The second issue is a lack of available information due to an almost total news blackout here in the UK with the BBC failing to even acknowledge that the summits are taking place.

This lack of information is compounded by the conference website run by the South African hosts. At the Cancun COP16/CMP6 the hosts website was easy to navigate and provided a wide range of information about the summits and side events along with all the conference documents and schedules and webcasts of public meetings and press briefings. The South African website provides none of these things. The UN website of course does provide the documents, schedules and some webcasts but it is more difficult and therefore time consuming to use. This increased secrecy is a result of pressure on the host from the United States, the UK and a few other mainly oil rich Gulf states. Their concern is that unless access to the summits is limited only to people they deem appropriate it will become almost impossible for them the hijack the summit for their purposes that have nothing to do with the physical environment. The UK also has this fanciful idea that if I personally can be prevented from seeing all the diplomatic moves my influence will be diminished and I will be soon forgotten allowing them to do what they like to me away from the glare of publicity. Although they are going along with this South Africa did lodge a protest just before the summits began by re-igniting the controversy surrounding their Protection of Information (secrecy) Bill which I'm sure will have a public interest defence added to it before it becomes law.

As for the business of the summits I expect that very little will be achieved because one of the largest players, the US simply has no interest in achieving anything and are supported by the monarchies led by the Saudis. In fact the main effort seems to be to water down the already rather weak agreement that was surprisingly reached at the COP16/CMP6. So I think that the best that can be hoped for is achieving an agreement for another summit to be held next year.

That is a shame because with sun spot activity/solar radiation at the lowest and most stable levels for probably a generation the scientific data collected now will massively improve our understanding of our environment and may even conclusively prove or disprove man made global warming. The problem is that collecting that data requires both a high level of scientific expertise and a huge amount of international co-operation. For example we need satellite data showing how much heat is being emitted by the sun. We then need more satellite data showing how much of that heat is present in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). We then need data from all areas of the globe showing how much of that heat is present in the troposphere and the hydro-lithosphere. All this data needs to be in a standardised form. So it would be extremely useful if the COP17/CMP7 could begin work on developing a mechanism for all that data to be collected, correlated and made available for analysis by all parties in preparation for the next summits. Sadly though from the tone the summits so far that's likely to be nothing more then a pipe dream because there are plenty of parties whose position relies on the question never being resolved.