Within Syria there are really five key areas; Shangri-La. Garvaghy Road. Afrin Canton. The Sudetenland. East Ghouta.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's
Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac
Christian,
Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around
50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free
Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International
Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force:
Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special
Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's
"Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF
clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area
between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
As a result ISIL maintain a small presence within Shangri-La. Both along
the northern bank of the Euphrates River and the desert area along the
Syria/Iraq border.
The area on the southern bank of the Euphrates is under the control of
the Syrians themselves. They are backed by longstanding allies Russia
and Iran alongside the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and
Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
What allowed the Syrians to liberate the southern bank of the Euphrates
was a nearly year long operation clearing ISIL from the centre of Syria.
Both to the north and the south.
In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May
2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated
the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.
To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital
Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had
reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits
almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra of course had been
liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on
the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate
the southern banks of the Euphrates.
Therefore it is reasonable to describe everything in the centre of Syria
between Damascus/Aleppo City and the Euphrates River as being under
Syrian control.
The exception is a small area around al-Tanf. This is home to a CJTFOIR base designated; "Bobby Sands."
Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot
engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence
of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the
base.
As a result a small ISIL presence persists in and around al-Tanf.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters
Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the
Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016. It remains under the illegal
occupation of both the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the United
Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves.
Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan
Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian
Turkmen Brigades (STB).
As part of the occupation of Garvaghy Road the UTA have been steadily
absorbing both ISIL and Al Qaeda fighters into their ranks alongside
Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq)
area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west. In February 2018 it was
under the control of the SDF.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both
Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of
Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's
Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
The Sudetenland is the heartland of Al Qaeda in Syria.
However in order to disguise their true identity Al Qaeda have formed a
coalition with a number of Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA.
One of these largest FSA fragments are the astonishingly brutal Movement
of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki.
Although they are currently in the process of creating a new identity
this group currently likes to be known as The Organisation for the
Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters.
Dividing Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland you have an area known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."
This contains 10 control points belonging to the regular Turkish
military. These effectively small bases have been established in
collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
East Ghouta:
This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.
In February 2018 East Ghouta was under the control of several Islamist groups operating in cooperation with each other.
One of the largest of these groups is the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR).
Another large group is Al Qaeda operating under the name; The
Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
(HTS).
In November 2017 Al Qaeda in East Ghouta formed a formal coalition calling itself the; Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad.
Al Qaeda's partner in the Army of Mohammad are the largest group
operating in East Ghouta. The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).
In my previous series of posts I detailed how East Ghouta had been liberated by the Syrians. The operation began on or around February 22nd (22/2/18). It was completed on or around April 7th (7/4/18).
The end of the Battle of East Ghouta saw Faylaq al-Rahman transfer to Afrin Canton on April 3rd (3/4/18). The Army of Islam transferred to Garvaghy Road on April 7th(7/4/18).
On January 22nd (22/1/18) the regular Turkish military (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA) began an operation against the SDF in Afrin Canton.
Codenamed; "Olive Branch" this operation was intended to annex Afrin Canton just as Turkey had annexed Garvaghy Road in August 2016.
This operation saw Turkish forces operated on five axis or "branches." To the east, the north-east, the north-west, the south-west and the south.
On February 11th (11/2/18) the south and south-west axis united while avoiding the town of Jinderes.
On February 15th (15/2/18) the south-west and north-west axis united while avoiding the town of Rajo.
On February 20th (20/2/18) the east and north-east axis united.
On February 26th (26/2/18) the north-east and north-west axis united between the towns of Bulbul and Rajo.
On March 2nd (2/3/18) Turkish forces launched an operation to capture Rajo. This town sits in the north-west of Afrin Canton around 30km (20 miles) north-west of Afrin City.
By March 5th (5/3/18) Turkish forces had captured Rajo.
On March 8th (8/3/18) Turkish launched an operation to capture Jinderes. The largest town in south-west Afrin Canton Jinderes sits around 25km (15 miles) south-west of Afrin City. Jinderes was captured the same day.
On March 12th (12/3/18) Turkish forces arrive at the outskirts of Afrin City itself. This prompted a mass exodus of civilians from the city fleeing a looming Turkish occupation.
As the human exodus from Afrin Canton continued Turkish forces began shelling the city on March 14th (14/3/18).
These air and artillery strikes continued for four days claiming many casualties. Including on March 16th (16/4/18) British volunteer with the SDF Anna Campbell aged 26 from Sussex.
On March 18th (18/4/18) Turkish forces launched an operation to capture Afrin City itself. In response the SDF melted away. This allowed Turkish forces to capture Afrin City the same day.
As the effective capital and last remaining population centre under SDF control the capture of Afrin City allowed Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to declare Operation Olive Branch completed on March 18th (18/3/18).
March 18th is a significant day within Turkey. Known as "Canakkale Day" or "Martyrs Day" it marks the Ottoman Empire's victory at the Battle of Canakkale during what is known amongst the allied forces as the Gallipoli Campaign. This was the Ottoman Empire's sole victory in World War One.
Following the declaration of victory Turkey has moved to permanently establish Afrin Canton as part of Turkish territory.
On February 26th (26/2/18) the United Turkmen Army (UTA) established a; "Kurdish Falcons Brigade." This is made up of members of the Kurdish Islamist Movement (KIM), a Kurdish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood which has long been known fight alongside ISIL.
Afrin's Kurds have been urged to join the UTA's Kurdish Falcon's Brigade by Muslim Brotherhood run Syrian Islamic Council (SIC). On February 28th (28/2/18) they issued a Fatwa calling on Kurdish Muslims to fight the SDF which it labelled as a puppet of the Crusader Americans.
The Turkish occupiers have also attempted to form a Vichy-style local government of collaborators. This is made up almost exclusively of the Syrian National Council (ENKS).
The ENKS are little more than an extension of Iraqi Kurdish Barzani clan. It was formed in late 2016 as part of former US President Barack Obama's last gasp plan to undermine the SDF before leaving office.
The ENKS paramilitary wing the Roj Peshmega has long fought on behalf of Turkey. Most notably in March 2017 when they attacked the Yezidi Sinjar/Shingal Protection Units (YBS) in the Sinjar/Shingal region of Iraq's Kurdish Region.
In December 2017 elections were held in both Afrin Canton an Shangri-La. Due to their immense unpopularity the ENKS boycotted those elections to avoid a crushing defeat.
On April 12th (12/4/18) Turkey formally unveiled its Vichy Council for Afrin Canton. It is made up of 11 ENKS Kurds, 8 Arabs and unsurprisingly an ethnic Turk. Members of the Yezidi religion are entirely excluded from the council.
Turkey's efforts to subdue Afrin Canton have been hampered by the brutality of the UTA. Since taking control of particularly Afrin City they have engaged in an orgy of looting and ransacking. Particularly targeting Kurds and Yezidis they have stolen or destroyed large amounts of civilian property.
Turkey's efforts to subjugate Afrin Canton have also been hampered by a guerrilla campaign by the SDF.
On March 22nd (22/3/18) the SDF carried out twin bombings killing TSK soldiers in Afrin City and the town of Bulbul.
On March 28th (28/3/18) the SDF conducted an attack on a base in Rajo killing seven members of the UTA. They were also able to conduct an ambush on a convoy in the Jinderes to Afrin City road which killed two members of the regular Turkish military.
On April 3rd (3/4/18) the SDF destroyed a TSK tank close to Bulbul. This resulted in the deaths of four members of the regular Turkish military.
Alongside the SDF's guerrilla campaign there have also been a number of mysterious bombings in the Afrin Canton/Garvaghy Road area.
On March 19th (19/3/18) there was a car bombing in Jarablus. The town right on the eastern boundary of Garvaghy Road where it meets Shangri-La.
On April 7th (7/4/18) a motorcycle bomb struck outside the main Mosque in al-Bab killing at least seven civilians. Al-Bab sits on the southern boundary of Garvaghy Road around 85km (50 miles) south-west of Jarablus.
On April 8th (8/4/18) there was similarly unclaimed bomb attack with Afrin City. There were no reported casualties.
On April 12th (12/4/18) a car bomb targeted in the main Mosque in Azaz. This sits on the western boundary of Garvaghy Road where it meets Afrin Canton. Around 25km (15 miles) north-east of Afrin City. Again there were no reported casualties.
Unlike the SDF's guerrilla campaign these bombings have all been aimed at civilian targets. Particularly Mosques which should be treated with proper reverence and respect.
Therefore it seems likely that these bombings are being conducted by the Turkish forces. The hope being to portray them as being part of the SDF's guerrilla campaign in order to turn the local population against the SDF.
Following the capture of Afrin City on March 18th (18/3/18) there was one last major town in Afrin Canton outside of Turkish control. Tal Rifaat.
Tel Rifaat sits around 20km (10 miles) east of Afrin City. It also sits around 10km (6 miles) west of Marea. Along with Azaz the town of Marea marks the boundary between Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road.
Tal Rifaat also sits around 15km (10 miles) north-east of the twin towns of Nubbol and Zahraa. This have long been under the control of the Syrians themselves.
On February 22nd (22/2/18) the Syrians took control of the Ziyarah Checkpoint which controls access between Afrin City and Tal Rifaat. This would make it impossible for Turkish forces to capture Tal Rifaat without clashing with Syrian forces.
Initially Turkish forces did not seem to fear such a confrontation. Their response to the Syrians taking control of the Ziyarah Checkpoint was to conduct an airstrike against a humanitarian convoy at the checkpoint on February 23rd (23/2/18).
Turkish forces also did not seem to initially fear Russian forces. On February 26th (26/2/18) the TSK conducted a mortar attack on Tal Rifaat which killed a member of the Russian military police.
On March 12th (12/3/18) the Syrians increased their control of the area between Afrin City and Tal Rifaat. They took control of the Menagh Air Base. This sits around 15km (10 miles) east of Afrin City and around 10km (6 miles) north of Tal Rifaat.
Turkish forces response was to conduct airstrikes against the Ziyarah Checkpoint on March 14th (14/3/18). This prompted the Syrians to shell Marea in retaliation.
Following the capture on March 18th (18/3/18) of Afrin City Turkish forces made clear their intention to capture Tal Rifaat.
On March 20th (20/3/18) Turkish forces captured the villages of Kufayr, Ain Dara and Basutah. These all sit directly to the south of Afrin City around 10km (6 miles) north-west of Nubbol and Zahraa.
Turkish forces also dispatched reconnaissance convoys to establish control points around Anadan and Hayyan. These sit around 10km (6 miles) south of Nubbol and Zahraa.
Syrian forces responded by shelling the Turkish reconnaissance convoys forcing them to withdraw. In retaliation Turkish forces conducted airstrikes against Syrian forces in Nubbol and Zahraa and at the Nayrab Air Base in Aleppo City.
On March 21st (21/3/18) Turkish forces continued their advance on Nubbol and Zahraa capturing mountains around Kimar and Barad. These sit between 5km (3 miles) and 10km (6 miles) west of Nubbol and Zahraa.
On March 22nd (22/3/18) Turkish forces captured Ba'ay and Basufan. These both sit around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Nubbol and Zahraa.
Crucially Ba'ay and Basufan also sit within the Simeon Highlands mountain range. This is part of the Sudetenland's Atmeh-Salwa Access Area where Turkish forces already control 10 small bases or; "Control Points."
The continued advances by Turkish forces were accompanied by tit-for-tat shelling and airstrikes between Turkish and Syrian forces. Particularly centred around Nubbol and Zahraa.
On March 27th (27/3/18) Turkish forces actually declared that they had captured Tal Rifaat. However they immediately retracted that claim. Instead declaring that through Russia they were in negotiations with the Syrians over control of the town.
Those negotiations appear to be ongoing. However the capture of Ba'ay and Basufan seem to make Tal Rifaat of less immediate importance to Turkish forces.
By entering the Simeon Highlands Turkish forces have established direct contact with their bases in the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area. They now seem to be interested in expanding direct Turkish military control over the entire Sudetenland area.
By an amazing coincidence the Turkish sponsored Political Committee of Idlib and the Turkish sponsored Civilian Council of Idlib demanded Turkish forces do just that on March 28th (28/3/18).
Turkish forces were quick to respond to that "popular" demand for "humanitarian intervention."
On April 3rd (3/4/18) they conducted reconnaissance patrols in Khan Shiekhoun, Morek, Lataminah and the Ghab Plains with a view to establishing regular Turkish military bases or; "Control Points."
Khan Shiekhoun, Morek and Lataminah all sit at the absolute southern boundary of the Sudetenland. Around 100km (60 miles) north of Hama City. In fact they sit around 60km (35 miles) miles south-west of Saraqib which was liberated by the Syrians back in January 2018.
The capture of Ba'ay and Basufan places the northern Sudetenland, Afrin Canton and Garvaghy Road under direct Turkish occupation. If Turkish forces are able to advance south to Lataminah it will place all of the Sudetenland under direct Turkish occupation.
As such it might be time to abandon the designations; "Sudetenland," "Afrin Canton" and "Garvaghy Road. Instead referring to them all as part of the Sudetenland.
However I hesitate to do so because I certainly do not wish to legitimise Turkey's wholly illegal annexation of Syrian territory.
17:40 on 3-/4/18 (UK date).
Monday 30 April 2018
Thursday 26 April 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 3, Day 4.
A direct continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/operation-featherweight-month-6-week-3.html
On March 20th (20/3/18) the Army of Islam launched a counter-offensive to recapture Misraba south of Douma. This was quickly absorbed and repelled.
Having failed to make progress against a military force the Army of Islam then decided to take their frustrations out of civilians.
On March 21st (21/3/18) the Army of Islam started shelling the Mezzah and Jaramana districts of Damascus. Mezzah sits in the south-west of the city, west of al-Qadam district. Jaramana sits in the south-east of the city, below the Ain Terma Valley and west of al-Maliha district.
The Army of Islam's shelling of Jaramana was particularly devastating. Targeting a market it killed at least 35 civilians.
On March 22nd (22/3/18) the Army of Islam continued their shelling of Damascus. Particularly targeting the Marjah Square area, located just to the north of Damascus' Old City district.
As they had done the previous day the Syrians continued to make progress against Faylaq al-Rahman in the Ain Terma district.
The most significant event of the day though was that Ahrar al-Sham did formally surrender Harasta as agreed on March 20th (20/3/18). As per the agreement the surrendering fighters began being transferred out of East Ghouta.
At the same time 4,000 Syrian civilians fled the Army of Islam in Douma for the safety of Syrian government controlled territory via the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
On March 23rd (23/3/18) Faylaq al-Rahman formally surrendered the areas under their control: Jobar. Arbeen. Ain Tarma. Zamalka.
This left only Douma under the control of the Army of Islam as the sole remaining area of East Ghouta under Islamist control.
The initial terms of the surrender saw Faylaq al-Rahman transported with only light weapons to the Sudetenland where they would join with Al Qaeda and ISIL.
However those terms changed on March 29th (29/3/18).
Following unconvincing objections from Turkey Faylaq al-Rahman instead transferred to Afrin Canton. Where they are likely to be absorbed into the ranks of the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
With Islamist forces in disarray a further 3,500 Syrian civilians were able to flee the Army of Islam in Douma for the safety of Syrian government controlled territory via the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
On March 24th (24/3/18) Faylaq al-Rahman's surrender went into effect. This led to a period of relative quiet in East Ghouta.
During that period negotiations began in earnest between the Syrians and the Army of Islam.
As a condition of their surrender the Army of Islam wanted safe passage with all their weapons to either Daraa Province or the East Qalamoun Mountains.
Daraa Province borders Israel and Jordan. Attacks by allies of the Army of Islam in Daraa Province on March 16th (16/3/18) had seen that option taken off the table.
The East Qalamoun Mountains sit to the north-east of Damascus. The most northerly town Ruhaybah sits around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Douma. Similar attacks by allies of the Army of Islam had ruled out transfer to that area.
On March 28th (28/3/18) the deadline for the Army of Islam's surrender expired without agreement. However there was no immediate action by the Syrians.
There was though an attack by allies of the Army of Islam against the Syrians at the town of al-Mahasa in the East Qalamoun Mountains. Rather underlining why transferring the Army of Islam there was simply not an option.
On April 3rd (3/4/18) the transfer of Faylaq al-Rahman was completed. This was notable because of the thousands of Syrian civilians lining up to pelt the buses carrying the Islamists with rocks.
That same day the Army of Islam announced that it would not surrender and instead fight to the death in Douma. However they did start transferring their "wounded" fighters out of Douma.
This transfer of "wounded" Army of Islam fighters continued until April 5th (5/4/18) when it suddenly stopped. Officially this was the result of a spilt with the Army of Islam between factions which wished to surrender and factions which wished to fight on.
In reality though it seemed to owe more to events in Garvaghy Road where the Army of Islam were being transferred to.
On April 4th (4/4/18) the first batch of Army of Islam fighters arrived at al-Bab in Garvaghy Road on their way to Jarablus.
They were briefly stopped by the regular Turkish military. However the Turkish military were forced to relent and allow them safe passage by supposedly "Popular Protests" by the residents of Garvaghy Road.
Providing an update on the situation in Afrin Canton is really my next task. However on January 21st (21/1/18) the regular Turkish military and the UTA launched an operation against Afrin Canton.
The objective of that operation was to annex Afrin Canton as part of a new Ottoman Empire alongside the annexation of Garvaghy Road and the by-proxy annexation of the Sudetenland.
This represents the seizure by force of arms of the territory of one sovereign nation by another sovereign nation.
That is totally forbidden by the Charter of the United Nations and by the Geneva Conventions. It represents the highest of all War Crimes.
Particularly within Afrin Canton Turkish forces are forcibly expelling the indigenous Kurdish population. They are replacing them with Syrian Arabs along with ethnic groups such as Turks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyzs who are not even native to Syria.
To give you an idea of the scale of this the Army of Islam families being transferred from Douma alone number around 60,000 people.
This is simply Ethnic Cleansing. A Crime Against Humanity specifically forbidden by the Rome Statute.
The Army of Islam are proud of the fact that they are a genocidal organisation. They have not only exterminated ethnic/religious groups they have executed members of ISIL for the "crime" of not being aggressive enough in their extermination of ethnic/religious groups.
Genocide is a Crime Against Humanity. Specifically forbidden by the Rome Statute.
You would think then that it would be impossible for Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to maintain his annexation of Syrian territory. Particularly as that annexation is being done in support of Crimes Against Humanity.
So you have events like those seen in al-Bab. The Turkish military make a big display of being opposed to the Army of Islam but are then forced to back down on humanitarian grounds.
On April 5th (5/4/18) and April 6th (6/4/18) the Turks were "leaking" that message to any western news organisation that would listen.
Despite the evacuation of "wounded" Army of Islam fighters grinding to a halt on April 5th (5/4/18) the Syrians did not immediately take any action.
Then on April 6th (6/4/18) the Army of Islam started an artillery bombardment against the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
That obviously forced the Syrians to launch airstrikes to protect civilians by stopping the Army of Islam's bombardment of the Humanitarian Corridor.
On April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam claimed that during the course of those Syrian airstrikes Chemical Weapons - suspected to be Chlorine and the Nerve Agent GB/Sarin - were used in two locations in Douma. Specifically the Saada Bakery and Martyrs Square.
It has to be said that it makes absolutely no sense for the Syrians to use Chemical Weapons at that point. Not only was the battle won the surrender of the Army Islam was almost complete.
In fact on the afternoon of April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam did formally surrender. Buses arrived to transfer their remaining fighters.
Obviously in the wake of a heinous Chemical Weapons attack Erdogan had no choice other than to accept the Army of Islam into Garvaghy Road and into the ranks of the UTA.
Everyone was certainly too busy demanding airstrikes against the Syrians to even question it.
Even in surrender the Army of Islam gave us a clear idea of what an utterly appalling organisation they are.
Throughout the negotiations with the Syrians the Army of Islam offered to release 5,000 members of the Alawite ethnic/religious minority they were holding hostage. This includes the roughly 1,000 civilians they paraded through the streets of East Ghouta in cages in November 2016.
Following the Syrians taking control of Douma only 200 of those 5,000 hostages have been found alive.
We know that the remaining 4,800 people did not leave East Ghouta.
17:00 on 26/4/18 (UK date).
On March 20th (20/3/18) the Army of Islam launched a counter-offensive to recapture Misraba south of Douma. This was quickly absorbed and repelled.
Having failed to make progress against a military force the Army of Islam then decided to take their frustrations out of civilians.
On March 21st (21/3/18) the Army of Islam started shelling the Mezzah and Jaramana districts of Damascus. Mezzah sits in the south-west of the city, west of al-Qadam district. Jaramana sits in the south-east of the city, below the Ain Terma Valley and west of al-Maliha district.
The Army of Islam's shelling of Jaramana was particularly devastating. Targeting a market it killed at least 35 civilians.
On March 22nd (22/3/18) the Army of Islam continued their shelling of Damascus. Particularly targeting the Marjah Square area, located just to the north of Damascus' Old City district.
As they had done the previous day the Syrians continued to make progress against Faylaq al-Rahman in the Ain Terma district.
The most significant event of the day though was that Ahrar al-Sham did formally surrender Harasta as agreed on March 20th (20/3/18). As per the agreement the surrendering fighters began being transferred out of East Ghouta.
At the same time 4,000 Syrian civilians fled the Army of Islam in Douma for the safety of Syrian government controlled territory via the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
On March 23rd (23/3/18) Faylaq al-Rahman formally surrendered the areas under their control: Jobar. Arbeen. Ain Tarma. Zamalka.
This left only Douma under the control of the Army of Islam as the sole remaining area of East Ghouta under Islamist control.
The initial terms of the surrender saw Faylaq al-Rahman transported with only light weapons to the Sudetenland where they would join with Al Qaeda and ISIL.
However those terms changed on March 29th (29/3/18).
Following unconvincing objections from Turkey Faylaq al-Rahman instead transferred to Afrin Canton. Where they are likely to be absorbed into the ranks of the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
With Islamist forces in disarray a further 3,500 Syrian civilians were able to flee the Army of Islam in Douma for the safety of Syrian government controlled territory via the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
On March 24th (24/3/18) Faylaq al-Rahman's surrender went into effect. This led to a period of relative quiet in East Ghouta.
During that period negotiations began in earnest between the Syrians and the Army of Islam.
As a condition of their surrender the Army of Islam wanted safe passage with all their weapons to either Daraa Province or the East Qalamoun Mountains.
Daraa Province borders Israel and Jordan. Attacks by allies of the Army of Islam in Daraa Province on March 16th (16/3/18) had seen that option taken off the table.
The East Qalamoun Mountains sit to the north-east of Damascus. The most northerly town Ruhaybah sits around 30km (20 miles) north-east of Douma. Similar attacks by allies of the Army of Islam had ruled out transfer to that area.
On March 28th (28/3/18) the deadline for the Army of Islam's surrender expired without agreement. However there was no immediate action by the Syrians.
There was though an attack by allies of the Army of Islam against the Syrians at the town of al-Mahasa in the East Qalamoun Mountains. Rather underlining why transferring the Army of Islam there was simply not an option.
On April 3rd (3/4/18) the transfer of Faylaq al-Rahman was completed. This was notable because of the thousands of Syrian civilians lining up to pelt the buses carrying the Islamists with rocks.
That same day the Army of Islam announced that it would not surrender and instead fight to the death in Douma. However they did start transferring their "wounded" fighters out of Douma.
This transfer of "wounded" Army of Islam fighters continued until April 5th (5/4/18) when it suddenly stopped. Officially this was the result of a spilt with the Army of Islam between factions which wished to surrender and factions which wished to fight on.
In reality though it seemed to owe more to events in Garvaghy Road where the Army of Islam were being transferred to.
On April 4th (4/4/18) the first batch of Army of Islam fighters arrived at al-Bab in Garvaghy Road on their way to Jarablus.
They were briefly stopped by the regular Turkish military. However the Turkish military were forced to relent and allow them safe passage by supposedly "Popular Protests" by the residents of Garvaghy Road.
Providing an update on the situation in Afrin Canton is really my next task. However on January 21st (21/1/18) the regular Turkish military and the UTA launched an operation against Afrin Canton.
The objective of that operation was to annex Afrin Canton as part of a new Ottoman Empire alongside the annexation of Garvaghy Road and the by-proxy annexation of the Sudetenland.
This represents the seizure by force of arms of the territory of one sovereign nation by another sovereign nation.
That is totally forbidden by the Charter of the United Nations and by the Geneva Conventions. It represents the highest of all War Crimes.
Particularly within Afrin Canton Turkish forces are forcibly expelling the indigenous Kurdish population. They are replacing them with Syrian Arabs along with ethnic groups such as Turks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyzs who are not even native to Syria.
To give you an idea of the scale of this the Army of Islam families being transferred from Douma alone number around 60,000 people.
This is simply Ethnic Cleansing. A Crime Against Humanity specifically forbidden by the Rome Statute.
The Army of Islam are proud of the fact that they are a genocidal organisation. They have not only exterminated ethnic/religious groups they have executed members of ISIL for the "crime" of not being aggressive enough in their extermination of ethnic/religious groups.
Genocide is a Crime Against Humanity. Specifically forbidden by the Rome Statute.
You would think then that it would be impossible for Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to maintain his annexation of Syrian territory. Particularly as that annexation is being done in support of Crimes Against Humanity.
So you have events like those seen in al-Bab. The Turkish military make a big display of being opposed to the Army of Islam but are then forced to back down on humanitarian grounds.
On April 5th (5/4/18) and April 6th (6/4/18) the Turks were "leaking" that message to any western news organisation that would listen.
Despite the evacuation of "wounded" Army of Islam fighters grinding to a halt on April 5th (5/4/18) the Syrians did not immediately take any action.
Then on April 6th (6/4/18) the Army of Islam started an artillery bombardment against the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
That obviously forced the Syrians to launch airstrikes to protect civilians by stopping the Army of Islam's bombardment of the Humanitarian Corridor.
On April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam claimed that during the course of those Syrian airstrikes Chemical Weapons - suspected to be Chlorine and the Nerve Agent GB/Sarin - were used in two locations in Douma. Specifically the Saada Bakery and Martyrs Square.
It has to be said that it makes absolutely no sense for the Syrians to use Chemical Weapons at that point. Not only was the battle won the surrender of the Army Islam was almost complete.
In fact on the afternoon of April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam did formally surrender. Buses arrived to transfer their remaining fighters.
Obviously in the wake of a heinous Chemical Weapons attack Erdogan had no choice other than to accept the Army of Islam into Garvaghy Road and into the ranks of the UTA.
Everyone was certainly too busy demanding airstrikes against the Syrians to even question it.
Even in surrender the Army of Islam gave us a clear idea of what an utterly appalling organisation they are.
Throughout the negotiations with the Syrians the Army of Islam offered to release 5,000 members of the Alawite ethnic/religious minority they were holding hostage. This includes the roughly 1,000 civilians they paraded through the streets of East Ghouta in cages in November 2016.
Following the Syrians taking control of Douma only 200 of those 5,000 hostages have been found alive.
We know that the remaining 4,800 people did not leave East Ghouta.
17:00 on 26/4/18 (UK date).
Wednesday 25 April 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 3, Day 3.
A direct continuation of yesterday's post; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/operation-featherweight-month-46-week-3.html
On March 5th (5/3/18) the Islamists suffered a massive collapse on their eastern flank. In the space of a day this saw them lose around 35% of the territory they had controlled at the start of the Battle of East Ghouta.
This collapse seemed to inspire East Ghouta's civilians. Sensing freedom at last they rose up against the Islamists in the Hamouriyah and Saqba districts on March 6th (6/3/18). In Hamouriyah they succeeded in expelling the Islamists.
Both Hamouriyah and Saqba sit at the south of the block of districts to the west of East Ghouta where the majority of the population are located. Saqba sits directly north of Jisreen district and Hamouriyah sits directly north of Saqba.
The Islamists reaction to this popular uprising against them was bizarre to say the least.
They claimed that the protests against them were in fact not protests at all. Instead the were the result of a Syrian Chemical Weapons attack.
The only way that would have been possible was if the Syrians had used the LSD -like 3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate (QNB/BZ).
This was either causing East Ghouta's civilians to hallucinate and protest as part of those hallucinations. Or causing us to hallucinate the protests.
I think this incident really shows the Islamists attitude towards claims of Chemical Weapons use.
They view the allegations of Chemical Weapons use as a sort of get-out-of-jail free card.
Every time they suffer a setback they simply have to claim the Syrians used Chemical Weapons. Then the international community will start pressure on the Syrians in order to protect the Islamists.
On March 6th (6/3/18) the Islamists were certainly suffering a great number of setbacks.
Aside from the civilian uprisings in Hamouriyah and Saqba the Islamists were also forced to withdraw from Misraba district.
Misraba sits on the eastern edge of the area where the majority of the population are located. South of Douma and west of Hasrata separated by Satra district.
The reason for the Islamists withdrawal was to shore up their defences in Hasrata district. There they were coming under increasing pressure from the Syrian's north-western axis.
On the Syrian's south-eastern axis March 6th (6/3/18) saw them liberate Hawsh al-Dawahra. That sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of Hazrama. The starting point of the south-eastern axis.
With Hamouriyah freed March 7th (7/3/18) saw the protests continue in Saqba and spread to Kafr Batna. This sits adjacent to Saqba on the south-west.
The Islamists withdrawal from Misraba the previous day allowed the Syrian's north-western axis to make significant advances. On March 7th (7/3/18) the Syrians not only took control of Misraba but also liberated Beit Sawa. This sits to the south of Misraba.
At this point the Syrians made the Islamists an offer. Transport to elsewhere if they surrendered.
Under the offer the Army of Islam would be transported to Daraa Province which borders Israel and Jordan. Faylaq al-Rahman would be transported north to Afrin Canton.
Neither the Army of Islam nor Faylaq al-Rahman accepted the offer.
The following day (8/3/18) brought more significant breakthroughs for the Syrians.
The Syrian's north-eastern axis liberated the Misraba Farms area. This sits to the west of Misraba and Beit Sawa.
In liberating this area the Syrian's north-western axis linked up with south-eastern axis. This divided the areas under Islamist control into two parts. Both cut off from each other.
Alongside linking up with the north-western axis the Syrian's south-eastern axis liberated the Aftris district and the adjacent Aftris Air Defence Base. Aftris sits to the east of Saqba and the Air Defence Base sits to the east of Aftris.
By liberating Aftris and the Air Defence Base the Syrian's south-eastern axis reached the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live.
The unification of the Syrian's north-western axis and south-eastern axis had the effect of seeing the Islamists lose 50% of the territory they had held at the start of the battle.
Almost like clockwork the Islamists responded to these losses by accusing the Syrians had used Chemical Weapons in Hamouriyah.
The Islamists claim was almost immediately denied by medical providers within Hamouriyah. They confirmed that the people shown in the videos released by the Army of Islam were in fact suffering from smoke inhalation, carbon monoxide poisoning, dust inhalation and other breathing problems associated with fire and explosions.
The next few days were relatively quiet. However by March 12th (12/3/18) the Syrians were back to making rapid progress.
They liberated the town of Madyra. This sits to the north-west of Beit Sawa district. In doing this the Syrians finally and completely broke the siege at the Hasrata Armoured Vehicle Base which had been under Islamist attack since December 2017.
The Syrians also completely liberated the farmland around Satra and Mesraba districts. This fully cut Douma off from Hasrata.
The Islamists also made a rare bit of progress themselves. The Army of Islam managed to seize control of Rayhan. This sits to the east of Douma and was lost as part of the Islamist's March 5th (5/3/18) collapse.
The Army of Islam also agreed a deal with Turkey. They would send fighters to the Sudetenland. In return Turkey would send unspecified supplies from the Sudetenland to Douma.
This should have set alarm bells ringing.
On March 1st (1/3/18) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was briefed on transfers of Chemical Weapons agents from Turkey into the Sudetenland via the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. Those Chemical Weapons agents were being stored in the Sudetenland towns of Luzah and Habt.
Obviously it should have raised concerns that these Chemical Weapons agents would be included in the equipment from the Sudetenland to Douma in East Ghouta. Something the Army of Islam would only do if they were planning to use Chemical Weapons in Douma.
This Army of Islam fighters for equipment deal meant that East Ghouta was quiet on March 13th (13/3/18).
By March 14th (14/3/18) the Syrians were back to making progress. The liberated Rayhan and Hawsh Mubarakat to the east of Douma.
The Syrians also took control of around 50% of Jisreen district. This sits at the southern tip of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live. Specifically south of Saqba and Kafr Batna.
Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda and associated groups launched an operation named; "Wrath of Ghouta" against the Syrians in support of Islamists within East Ghouta. It collapsed within a day.
On March 15th (15/3/18) the Syrian's elite Tiger Force advanced from Rayhan to liberate the Douma Industrial Zone. This put the Syrians and the eastern gates of Douma itself.
To the south-west of East Ghouta the Syrians liberated Saqba. They also finally reached and took control of Hamouriyah whose residents had freed themselves from the Islamists back on March 6th (6/3/18).
Hamouriyah and Saqba being reconnected with the outside world was like a dam breaking. That single day saw some 10,000 grateful civilians flood out of those areas and into the safety of Syrian controlled territory.
On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrians completed their liberation of Jisreen district to the south of Saqba.
This left the Islamists in control of just 7 towns or districts in East Ghouta: Kafr Batna. Hazzah. Ayn Tarma. Zamalka. Jobar. Arbeen. Harasta. Douma.
With the Islamists in East Ghouta now seeming to be on the brink of defeat their allies across Syria launched attacks against the Syrians. The intention being to divide Syrian forces and reduce the pressure on the Islamists in East Ghouta.
This included attacks by Islamists in Daraa Province. Those attacks caused the Syrians to withdraw their offer of transferring the Army of Islam from East Ghouta to Daraa Province upon surrender.
Most notably the Islamists in East Ghouta were aided by ISIL. They control the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. This is located amid the southern districts of Damascus. Roughly 6km (3 miles) west of the East Ghouta district of al-Maliha.
From the Yarmouk Camp ISIL launched a sustained attack against Syrian forces in the al-Qadam district of Damascus. This is located adjacent to the western side of the Yarmouk Camp.
Following a few days of relative quiet on March 19th (19/3/18) the Syrians liberated Kafr Batna. This gave them almost complete control of the southern tip of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live.
This latest defeat prompted Ahrar al-Sham to surrender the Harasta district to the Syrians.
It also prompted Faylaq al-Rahman to begin negotiations to surrender the four districts under their control: Jobar. Arbeen. Ain Tarma. Zamalka.
Rather than following their peers in negotiating a surrender the Army of Islam on March 20th (20/3/18) launched a counter-offensive to recapture Misraba south of Douma. This was quickly absorbed and repelled.
Alongside repelling the Army of Islam's attack on Misraba the Syrians were able to liberate the Ain Terma Valley. This sits directly to the south of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live. Beneath the districts of Jisreen, Kafr Batna and Ain Terma.
After liberating the valley the Syrians entered Ain Terma itself.
The Syrians though could not sustain the pressure of fighting multiple battles on multiple fronts.
The Syrians lines in the al-Qadam district of Damascus collapsed in the face of the assault ISIL had launched from the Yarmouk Camp on March 16th (16/3/18). This allowed ISIL to take control of al-Qadam district.
16:45 on 25/4/18 (UK date).
On March 5th (5/3/18) the Islamists suffered a massive collapse on their eastern flank. In the space of a day this saw them lose around 35% of the territory they had controlled at the start of the Battle of East Ghouta.
This collapse seemed to inspire East Ghouta's civilians. Sensing freedom at last they rose up against the Islamists in the Hamouriyah and Saqba districts on March 6th (6/3/18). In Hamouriyah they succeeded in expelling the Islamists.
Both Hamouriyah and Saqba sit at the south of the block of districts to the west of East Ghouta where the majority of the population are located. Saqba sits directly north of Jisreen district and Hamouriyah sits directly north of Saqba.
The Islamists reaction to this popular uprising against them was bizarre to say the least.
They claimed that the protests against them were in fact not protests at all. Instead the were the result of a Syrian Chemical Weapons attack.
The only way that would have been possible was if the Syrians had used the LSD -like 3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate (QNB/BZ).
This was either causing East Ghouta's civilians to hallucinate and protest as part of those hallucinations. Or causing us to hallucinate the protests.
I think this incident really shows the Islamists attitude towards claims of Chemical Weapons use.
They view the allegations of Chemical Weapons use as a sort of get-out-of-jail free card.
Every time they suffer a setback they simply have to claim the Syrians used Chemical Weapons. Then the international community will start pressure on the Syrians in order to protect the Islamists.
On March 6th (6/3/18) the Islamists were certainly suffering a great number of setbacks.
Aside from the civilian uprisings in Hamouriyah and Saqba the Islamists were also forced to withdraw from Misraba district.
Misraba sits on the eastern edge of the area where the majority of the population are located. South of Douma and west of Hasrata separated by Satra district.
The reason for the Islamists withdrawal was to shore up their defences in Hasrata district. There they were coming under increasing pressure from the Syrian's north-western axis.
On the Syrian's south-eastern axis March 6th (6/3/18) saw them liberate Hawsh al-Dawahra. That sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of Hazrama. The starting point of the south-eastern axis.
With Hamouriyah freed March 7th (7/3/18) saw the protests continue in Saqba and spread to Kafr Batna. This sits adjacent to Saqba on the south-west.
The Islamists withdrawal from Misraba the previous day allowed the Syrian's north-western axis to make significant advances. On March 7th (7/3/18) the Syrians not only took control of Misraba but also liberated Beit Sawa. This sits to the south of Misraba.
At this point the Syrians made the Islamists an offer. Transport to elsewhere if they surrendered.
Under the offer the Army of Islam would be transported to Daraa Province which borders Israel and Jordan. Faylaq al-Rahman would be transported north to Afrin Canton.
Neither the Army of Islam nor Faylaq al-Rahman accepted the offer.
The following day (8/3/18) brought more significant breakthroughs for the Syrians.
The Syrian's north-eastern axis liberated the Misraba Farms area. This sits to the west of Misraba and Beit Sawa.
In liberating this area the Syrian's north-western axis linked up with south-eastern axis. This divided the areas under Islamist control into two parts. Both cut off from each other.
Alongside linking up with the north-western axis the Syrian's south-eastern axis liberated the Aftris district and the adjacent Aftris Air Defence Base. Aftris sits to the east of Saqba and the Air Defence Base sits to the east of Aftris.
By liberating Aftris and the Air Defence Base the Syrian's south-eastern axis reached the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live.
The unification of the Syrian's north-western axis and south-eastern axis had the effect of seeing the Islamists lose 50% of the territory they had held at the start of the battle.
Almost like clockwork the Islamists responded to these losses by accusing the Syrians had used Chemical Weapons in Hamouriyah.
The Islamists claim was almost immediately denied by medical providers within Hamouriyah. They confirmed that the people shown in the videos released by the Army of Islam were in fact suffering from smoke inhalation, carbon monoxide poisoning, dust inhalation and other breathing problems associated with fire and explosions.
The next few days were relatively quiet. However by March 12th (12/3/18) the Syrians were back to making rapid progress.
They liberated the town of Madyra. This sits to the north-west of Beit Sawa district. In doing this the Syrians finally and completely broke the siege at the Hasrata Armoured Vehicle Base which had been under Islamist attack since December 2017.
The Syrians also completely liberated the farmland around Satra and Mesraba districts. This fully cut Douma off from Hasrata.
The Islamists also made a rare bit of progress themselves. The Army of Islam managed to seize control of Rayhan. This sits to the east of Douma and was lost as part of the Islamist's March 5th (5/3/18) collapse.
The Army of Islam also agreed a deal with Turkey. They would send fighters to the Sudetenland. In return Turkey would send unspecified supplies from the Sudetenland to Douma.
This should have set alarm bells ringing.
On March 1st (1/3/18) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was briefed on transfers of Chemical Weapons agents from Turkey into the Sudetenland via the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. Those Chemical Weapons agents were being stored in the Sudetenland towns of Luzah and Habt.
Obviously it should have raised concerns that these Chemical Weapons agents would be included in the equipment from the Sudetenland to Douma in East Ghouta. Something the Army of Islam would only do if they were planning to use Chemical Weapons in Douma.
This Army of Islam fighters for equipment deal meant that East Ghouta was quiet on March 13th (13/3/18).
By March 14th (14/3/18) the Syrians were back to making progress. The liberated Rayhan and Hawsh Mubarakat to the east of Douma.
The Syrians also took control of around 50% of Jisreen district. This sits at the southern tip of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live. Specifically south of Saqba and Kafr Batna.
Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda and associated groups launched an operation named; "Wrath of Ghouta" against the Syrians in support of Islamists within East Ghouta. It collapsed within a day.
On March 15th (15/3/18) the Syrian's elite Tiger Force advanced from Rayhan to liberate the Douma Industrial Zone. This put the Syrians and the eastern gates of Douma itself.
To the south-west of East Ghouta the Syrians liberated Saqba. They also finally reached and took control of Hamouriyah whose residents had freed themselves from the Islamists back on March 6th (6/3/18).
Hamouriyah and Saqba being reconnected with the outside world was like a dam breaking. That single day saw some 10,000 grateful civilians flood out of those areas and into the safety of Syrian controlled territory.
On March 16th (16/3/18) the Syrians completed their liberation of Jisreen district to the south of Saqba.
This left the Islamists in control of just 7 towns or districts in East Ghouta: Kafr Batna. Hazzah. Ayn Tarma. Zamalka. Jobar. Arbeen. Harasta. Douma.
With the Islamists in East Ghouta now seeming to be on the brink of defeat their allies across Syria launched attacks against the Syrians. The intention being to divide Syrian forces and reduce the pressure on the Islamists in East Ghouta.
This included attacks by Islamists in Daraa Province. Those attacks caused the Syrians to withdraw their offer of transferring the Army of Islam from East Ghouta to Daraa Province upon surrender.
Most notably the Islamists in East Ghouta were aided by ISIL. They control the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian Refugees. This is located amid the southern districts of Damascus. Roughly 6km (3 miles) west of the East Ghouta district of al-Maliha.
From the Yarmouk Camp ISIL launched a sustained attack against Syrian forces in the al-Qadam district of Damascus. This is located adjacent to the western side of the Yarmouk Camp.
Following a few days of relative quiet on March 19th (19/3/18) the Syrians liberated Kafr Batna. This gave them almost complete control of the southern tip of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live.
This latest defeat prompted Ahrar al-Sham to surrender the Harasta district to the Syrians.
It also prompted Faylaq al-Rahman to begin negotiations to surrender the four districts under their control: Jobar. Arbeen. Ain Tarma. Zamalka.
Rather than following their peers in negotiating a surrender the Army of Islam on March 20th (20/3/18) launched a counter-offensive to recapture Misraba south of Douma. This was quickly absorbed and repelled.
Alongside repelling the Army of Islam's attack on Misraba the Syrians were able to liberate the Ain Terma Valley. This sits directly to the south of the western area where the majority of East Ghouta's population live. Beneath the districts of Jisreen, Kafr Batna and Ain Terma.
After liberating the valley the Syrians entered Ain Terma itself.
The Syrians though could not sustain the pressure of fighting multiple battles on multiple fronts.
The Syrians lines in the al-Qadam district of Damascus collapsed in the face of the assault ISIL had launched from the Yarmouk Camp on March 16th (16/3/18). This allowed ISIL to take control of al-Qadam district.
16:45 on 25/4/18 (UK date).
Tuesday 24 April 2018
Operation Featherweight: Month 46, Week 3, Day 2.
My previous post on the war in Syria was all the way back on February 23rd (23/2/18).
At that time there were five key areas: Shangri-La. Garvaghy Road. Afrin Canton. The Sudetenland. East Ghouta.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
As a result ISIL maintain a small presence within Shangri-La. Both along the northern bank of the Euphrates River and the desert area along the Syria/Iraq border.
The area on the southern bank of the Euphrates is under the control of the Syrians themselves. They are backed by longstanding allies Russia and Iran alongside the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
What allowed the Syrians to liberate the southern bank of the Euphrates was a nearly year long operation clearing ISIL from the centre of Syria. Both to the north and the south.
In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.
To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra of course had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.
Therefore it is reasonable to describe everything in the centre of Syria between Damascus/Aleppo City and the Euphrates River as being under Syrian control.
The exception is a small area around al-Tanf. This is home to a CJTFOIR base designated; "Bobby Sands."
Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.
As a result a small ISIL presence persists in and around al-Tanf.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016. It remains under the illegal occupation of both the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
As part of the occupation of Garvaghy Road the UTA have been steadily absorbing both ISIL and Al Qaeda fighters into their ranks alongside Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west. In February 2018 it was under the control of the SDF.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
The Sudetenland is the heartland of Al Qaeda in Syria.
However in order to disguise their true identity Al Qaeda have formed a coalition with a number of Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA. One of these largest FSA fragments are the astonishingly brutal Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki.
Although they are currently in the process of creating a new identity this group currently likes to be known as The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters.
Dividing Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland you have an area known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."
This contains 10 control points belonging to the regular Turkish military. These effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
East Ghouta:
This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.
In February 2018 East Ghouta was under the control of several Islamist groups operating in cooperation with each other.
One of the largest of these groups is the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR).
Another large group is Al Qaeda operating under the name; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
In November 2017 Al Qaeda in East Ghouta formed a formal coalition calling itself the; Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad.
Al Qaeda's partner in the Army of Mohammad are the largest group operating in East Ghouta. The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).
Although it is ISIL who garner all the headlines the Army of Islam are the most vicious and, dare I say, evil group in the entire Syria conflict.
In July 2015 a propaganda video emerged showing 18 prisoners being paraded for the camera and then executed.
What was different about this video was that it was ISIL fighters who were the prisoners. They were being executed by members of the Army of Islam.
As the video explained the Army of Islam were carrying out the killings in order to punish ISIL for being too moderate. In the Army of Islam's eyes ISIL were not doing enough to exterminate Syria's religious and ethnic minorities.
Throughout the summer of 2015 the Army of Islam conducted a series of massacres of members of Syria's Druze minority religious groups. This prompted Israel's Druze population to riot demanding action was taken to prevent the ongoing genocide.
In November 2015 the Army of Islam released video from inside East Ghouta.
It showed the Army of Islam placing as many as 1,000 civilian prisoners from the Alawite minority religious group in cages and parading them through the streets. The civilians were then placed atop of Army of Islam military buildings to act as human shields against Syria air strikes.
The Army of Islam are also recognised as the official Syrian opposition within the Geneva Process on Syria.
So when politicians of any nation say they support the Geneva Process what they are supporting is putting the Army of Islam in charge of all of Syria.
Also active within East Ghouta although in much smaller numbers is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.
Obviously all events in Syria are interlinked and affect each other.
For example UTA attacks in Afrin Canton have forced the SDF to redeploy forces from Shangri-La. This along with the threat of Israeli and US-led airstrikes against the Syrians have allowed ISIL to regain strength and attack the Syrians around al-Tanf.
However on April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam claimed a Chemical Weapons attack occurred in East Ghouta. In a blaze of publicity this triggered western airstrikes against the Syrians on April 14th (14/4/18).
Therefore it is probably best that I start with the Battle of East Ghouta.
Rather than being a city or town in its own right East Ghouta is a roughly 275kmsq (165 milesq) area made up of various towns and residential districts.
The most western of these under Islamist control is the Jobar district. This sits technically inside of Damascus itself to the west of the Southern Bypass Highway.
The most easterly district under Islamist control is the town of Hazrama. This sits around 15km (10 miles) due east of Jobar.
The most northern point under Islamist control is technically the Baghdad Bridge across the M5 Highway.
However the most northern populated area is the town of Douma. This sits around 10km (6 miles) south-east of the Baghdad Bridge along the M5 Highway. If you were looking at a clock face Douma sits roughly in the 10 o'clock position.
The most southern point under Islamist control is technically the sparesly population Harasta Qantarah. This sits around 15km (10 miles) south of the Baghdad Bridge.
However the main populated area to the south is the al-Malhia district. This sits around 7km (4 miles) west of Harasta Qantarah.
The majority of the population are located in roughly a dozen districts and towns in the west of East Ghouta. Stretching from al-Malhia district to Douma.
In setting out to liberate East Ghouta the Syrians established two axis; In the north-west and the south-east.
The North-Western Axis sought to enter at the Harasta district. This is located between Douma and Jobar district.
The South-Eastern axis south to enter at the town of Hazrama.
In preparation for the operation the Syrians also established a Humanitarian Corridor to allow civilians to flee the fighting. This was located at the Wafidain Checkpoint which enters Douma from the north.
Fighting has taken place between the Syrians and the Islamists on the borders of East Ghouta almost continuously throughout this eight year conflict.
Much of December 2017 along with January and February 2018 have been dominated by the Army of Islam's attempts to capture the Hasrata Armoured Vehicle Base in Hasrata from the Syrians.
Therefore it is hard to say exactly when the Battle of East Ghouta began.
However the first meaningful clash seemed to take place on February 22nd (22/2/18). Here the Syrian south-eastern axis clashed with Islamist forces just outside Hazrama.
The Syrians first significant breakthrough came on February 26th (26/2/18). Here the south-eastern axis managed to liberate Hazrama along with the nearby town of Nashabiyah.
This is significant because the Islamists had built an elaborate trench system known as; "The Line of Death" around Hazrama and Nashabiyah. By simply going around this Line of Death to liberate Hazrama and Nashabiyah the Syrians had placed themselves within the Islamists main line of defence.
On the same day (26/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis were able to enter the al-Ajami district of Hasrata. This is located adjacent to the Armoured Vehicle Base.
The Islamists responded to these defeats by claiming that the Syrians had used Chemical Weapons. Specifically Chlorine Gas.
On February 27th (27/2/18) the Syrians south-eastern axis made another major advance. They were able to capture a trench network on the outskirts of Hawsh al-Dawahra. This sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of Hazrama.
Also on that same day (27/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis succeeded in liberated the al-Ajami district of Hasrata.
The Islamists responded to those defeats in two ways.
Firstly they again claimed that the Syrians had used Chlorine Gas. Specifically at al-Shifuniyah which sits around 2km (1 mile) north-west of Hawsh al-Dawahra.
Secondly specifically the Army of Islam shelled the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint. The objective being to stop civilians fleeing into Syrian controlled territory.
On February 28th (28/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis liberated the Harasta Farms area. These sit to the north-east of Harasta between Harasta and Douma. In the process the Syrians took control of and cut the main road leading between Harasta and Douma.
The south-eastern axis also made progress advancing from Hawsh al-Dawahra to al-Shifuniyah. Specifically liberating Sifco Laboratory complex on the north-western outskirts of Hawsh al-Dawahra.
The Army of Islam continued to shell the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
Over the next few days the Syrians south-eastern axis continued to make rapid progress.
On March 1st (1/3/18) they liberated the al-Bashoura Air Defence Base. This sits almost directly south of Hawsh al-Dawahra. On March 2nd (2/3/18) the Syrians liberated the Regiment 274 Base. This sits almost directly south of al-Shifuniyah. Around 3km (2 miles) west of Hawsh al-Dawahra.
These gains by the Syrians south-eastern axis triggered a massive collapse of the Islamists entire eastern front on March 5th (5/2/18).
In the space of a single day the Islamists lost control of everything from Ar Rayhan in the north to Beit Nayem in the South.
Ar Rayhan sits around 7km (4 miles) north of Hazrama and around 1km (0.6 miles) north of al-Shifuniyah. Crucially it sits around 5km (3 miles) east of Douma which is considered to be on the west of East Ghouta.
Beit Nayem sits around 4km (2 miles) west of Hazrama and around 5km (3 miles) south of al-Shifuniyah. It also sits just 4km (2 miles) east of the Jisreen district which makes up the western area which is the most populated in East Ghouta.
This single day collapse saw the Islamists lose around 35% of the territory they controlled at the start of the battle.
17:30 on 24/4/18 (UK date).
At that time there were five key areas: Shangri-La. Garvaghy Road. Afrin Canton. The Sudetenland. East Ghouta.
Shangri-La:
This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.
It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).
The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.
As a result ISIL maintain a small presence within Shangri-La. Both along the northern bank of the Euphrates River and the desert area along the Syria/Iraq border.
The area on the southern bank of the Euphrates is under the control of the Syrians themselves. They are backed by longstanding allies Russia and Iran alongside the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
In December 2017 the Syrians liberated the towns of Qataa, Jalaa, Ramadi and Buqan. This allowed them to declare the southern bank of the Euphrates fully liberated from ISIL.
What allowed the Syrians to liberate the southern bank of the Euphrates was a nearly year long operation clearing ISIL from the centre of Syria. Both to the north and the south.
In the north of the country the Syrians set out from Aleppo City in May 2017. By late July 2017 this northern axis had arrived at and liberated the town of Dalhah which sits on the southern bank of the Euphrates.
To the south of the country the Syrians set out from the Syrian capital Damascus. Also in May 2017. By early June 2017 this southern axis had reached the border between Syria and Iraq at the town of al-Tanf.
From al-Tanf the Syrians then advanced on the city of Palmyra which sits almost exactly in the centre of Syria. Palmyra of course had been liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.
In August 2017 Syrian forces from both Palmyra and Dalhah converged on the town of as-Suknah. From there they began the operation to liberate the southern banks of the Euphrates.
Therefore it is reasonable to describe everything in the centre of Syria between Damascus/Aleppo City and the Euphrates River as being under Syrian control.
The exception is a small area around al-Tanf. This is home to a CJTFOIR base designated; "Bobby Sands."
Due to the presence of now exclusively US troops the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of Bobby Sands. Likewise due to the presence of Syrian troops CJTFOIR also cannot engage ISIL in the vicinity of the base.
As a result a small ISIL presence persists in and around al-Tanf.
Garvaghy Road:
This sits to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.
It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016. It remains under the illegal occupation of both the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the United Turkmen Army (UTA).
The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).
As part of the occupation of Garvaghy Road the UTA have been steadily absorbing both ISIL and Al Qaeda fighters into their ranks alongside Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA.
Afrin Canton:
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west. In February 2018 it was under the control of the SDF.
The Sudetenland:
This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.
It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.
The Sudetenland is the heartland of Al Qaeda in Syria.
However in order to disguise their true identity Al Qaeda have formed a coalition with a number of Islamist fragments of the long defunct FSA. One of these largest FSA fragments are the astonishingly brutal Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zenki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki.
Although they are currently in the process of creating a new identity this group currently likes to be known as The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Within the Sudetenland Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters.
Dividing Afrin Canton and the Sudetenland you have an area known as the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area."
This contains 10 control points belonging to the regular Turkish military. These effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.
East Ghouta:
This is a suburb which sits directly adjacent to the east of the Syrian capital Damascus.
In February 2018 East Ghouta was under the control of several Islamist groups operating in cooperation with each other.
One of the largest of these groups is the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR).
Another large group is Al Qaeda operating under the name; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
In November 2017 Al Qaeda in East Ghouta formed a formal coalition calling itself the; Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad.
Al Qaeda's partner in the Army of Mohammad are the largest group operating in East Ghouta. The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI).
Although it is ISIL who garner all the headlines the Army of Islam are the most vicious and, dare I say, evil group in the entire Syria conflict.
In July 2015 a propaganda video emerged showing 18 prisoners being paraded for the camera and then executed.
What was different about this video was that it was ISIL fighters who were the prisoners. They were being executed by members of the Army of Islam.
As the video explained the Army of Islam were carrying out the killings in order to punish ISIL for being too moderate. In the Army of Islam's eyes ISIL were not doing enough to exterminate Syria's religious and ethnic minorities.
Throughout the summer of 2015 the Army of Islam conducted a series of massacres of members of Syria's Druze minority religious groups. This prompted Israel's Druze population to riot demanding action was taken to prevent the ongoing genocide.
In November 2015 the Army of Islam released video from inside East Ghouta.
It showed the Army of Islam placing as many as 1,000 civilian prisoners from the Alawite minority religious group in cages and parading them through the streets. The civilians were then placed atop of Army of Islam military buildings to act as human shields against Syria air strikes.
The Army of Islam are also recognised as the official Syrian opposition within the Geneva Process on Syria.
So when politicians of any nation say they support the Geneva Process what they are supporting is putting the Army of Islam in charge of all of Syria.
Also active within East Ghouta although in much smaller numbers is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.
Obviously all events in Syria are interlinked and affect each other.
For example UTA attacks in Afrin Canton have forced the SDF to redeploy forces from Shangri-La. This along with the threat of Israeli and US-led airstrikes against the Syrians have allowed ISIL to regain strength and attack the Syrians around al-Tanf.
However on April 7th (7/4/18) the Army of Islam claimed a Chemical Weapons attack occurred in East Ghouta. In a blaze of publicity this triggered western airstrikes against the Syrians on April 14th (14/4/18).
Therefore it is probably best that I start with the Battle of East Ghouta.
Rather than being a city or town in its own right East Ghouta is a roughly 275kmsq (165 milesq) area made up of various towns and residential districts.
The most western of these under Islamist control is the Jobar district. This sits technically inside of Damascus itself to the west of the Southern Bypass Highway.
The most easterly district under Islamist control is the town of Hazrama. This sits around 15km (10 miles) due east of Jobar.
The most northern point under Islamist control is technically the Baghdad Bridge across the M5 Highway.
However the most northern populated area is the town of Douma. This sits around 10km (6 miles) south-east of the Baghdad Bridge along the M5 Highway. If you were looking at a clock face Douma sits roughly in the 10 o'clock position.
The most southern point under Islamist control is technically the sparesly population Harasta Qantarah. This sits around 15km (10 miles) south of the Baghdad Bridge.
However the main populated area to the south is the al-Malhia district. This sits around 7km (4 miles) west of Harasta Qantarah.
The majority of the population are located in roughly a dozen districts and towns in the west of East Ghouta. Stretching from al-Malhia district to Douma.
In setting out to liberate East Ghouta the Syrians established two axis; In the north-west and the south-east.
The North-Western Axis sought to enter at the Harasta district. This is located between Douma and Jobar district.
The South-Eastern axis south to enter at the town of Hazrama.
In preparation for the operation the Syrians also established a Humanitarian Corridor to allow civilians to flee the fighting. This was located at the Wafidain Checkpoint which enters Douma from the north.
Fighting has taken place between the Syrians and the Islamists on the borders of East Ghouta almost continuously throughout this eight year conflict.
Much of December 2017 along with January and February 2018 have been dominated by the Army of Islam's attempts to capture the Hasrata Armoured Vehicle Base in Hasrata from the Syrians.
Therefore it is hard to say exactly when the Battle of East Ghouta began.
However the first meaningful clash seemed to take place on February 22nd (22/2/18). Here the Syrian south-eastern axis clashed with Islamist forces just outside Hazrama.
The Syrians first significant breakthrough came on February 26th (26/2/18). Here the south-eastern axis managed to liberate Hazrama along with the nearby town of Nashabiyah.
This is significant because the Islamists had built an elaborate trench system known as; "The Line of Death" around Hazrama and Nashabiyah. By simply going around this Line of Death to liberate Hazrama and Nashabiyah the Syrians had placed themselves within the Islamists main line of defence.
On the same day (26/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis were able to enter the al-Ajami district of Hasrata. This is located adjacent to the Armoured Vehicle Base.
The Islamists responded to these defeats by claiming that the Syrians had used Chemical Weapons. Specifically Chlorine Gas.
On February 27th (27/2/18) the Syrians south-eastern axis made another major advance. They were able to capture a trench network on the outskirts of Hawsh al-Dawahra. This sits around 3km (2 miles) north-west of Hazrama.
Also on that same day (27/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis succeeded in liberated the al-Ajami district of Hasrata.
The Islamists responded to those defeats in two ways.
Firstly they again claimed that the Syrians had used Chlorine Gas. Specifically at al-Shifuniyah which sits around 2km (1 mile) north-west of Hawsh al-Dawahra.
Secondly specifically the Army of Islam shelled the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint. The objective being to stop civilians fleeing into Syrian controlled territory.
On February 28th (28/2/18) the Syrians north-western axis liberated the Harasta Farms area. These sit to the north-east of Harasta between Harasta and Douma. In the process the Syrians took control of and cut the main road leading between Harasta and Douma.
The south-eastern axis also made progress advancing from Hawsh al-Dawahra to al-Shifuniyah. Specifically liberating Sifco Laboratory complex on the north-western outskirts of Hawsh al-Dawahra.
The Army of Islam continued to shell the Humanitarian Corridor at the Wafidain Checkpoint.
Over the next few days the Syrians south-eastern axis continued to make rapid progress.
On March 1st (1/3/18) they liberated the al-Bashoura Air Defence Base. This sits almost directly south of Hawsh al-Dawahra. On March 2nd (2/3/18) the Syrians liberated the Regiment 274 Base. This sits almost directly south of al-Shifuniyah. Around 3km (2 miles) west of Hawsh al-Dawahra.
These gains by the Syrians south-eastern axis triggered a massive collapse of the Islamists entire eastern front on March 5th (5/2/18).
In the space of a single day the Islamists lost control of everything from Ar Rayhan in the north to Beit Nayem in the South.
Ar Rayhan sits around 7km (4 miles) north of Hazrama and around 1km (0.6 miles) north of al-Shifuniyah. Crucially it sits around 5km (3 miles) east of Douma which is considered to be on the west of East Ghouta.
Beit Nayem sits around 4km (2 miles) west of Hazrama and around 5km (3 miles) south of al-Shifuniyah. It also sits just 4km (2 miles) east of the Jisreen district which makes up the western area which is the most populated in East Ghouta.
This single day collapse saw the Islamists lose around 35% of the territory they controlled at the start of the battle.
17:30 on 24/4/18 (UK date).
Tuesday 17 April 2018
It Must be a Wonderful World.
Due to particularly the 2018 Winter Para-Olympics it has been a while since my last post on the ongoing war in Syria. Or at least not under the official designation
In that time the battle for Afrin Canton has been completed. The battle for East Ghouta has also begun. And been completed.
As a result I am still trying to piece together the exact order of battle. For not one but two large battles.
If you are unfamiliar with the term; "Order of Battle." It is a posh way of saying; "Hundreds of Soldiers Are Running About."
I am still about a month behind. So this process will not be completed this week. Last week was not exactly conducive to progress.
Particularly in the UK it seems to have gone out of fashion. I though prefer to complete my research before reaching my conclusions.
Under that caveat though a pattern does seem to have emerged in East Ghouta;
The main terror groups operating there are/were The Base/Al Qaeda (AQ), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR). They operate as the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad (JAM) coalition.
Over the course of the battle they have suffered a number of setbacks. For example;
On March 5th (5/3/18) their eastern defensive line collapsed. This saw the JAM lose about 35% of the territory they initially controlled in more-or-less a single day.
On March 6th (6/3/18) civilians in the town of Hammouriyah rose up against the JAM and demanded that they leave.
On March 8th (5/3/18) the Syrians unified their axis' splitting the JAM's forces in two. This saw the JAM losses rise to about 50% of the territory they initially controlled.
Every time they have suffered one of these setbacks the JAM have accused the Syrians of using Chemical Weapons. Typically Chlorine.
A notable incident occurred on March 8th (8/3/18) in Hammouriyah. The JAM claimed that Chlorine gas had been used.
The civilian medical providers in Hammouriyah then denied that claim. The people shown in the videos JAM released were in fact suffering from smoke inhalation, carbon monoxide poisoning and other breathing problems associated with fiery explosions.
On March 6th (6/3/18) the JAM actually claimed the protests against them in Hammouriyah were not protests at all. Instead they were the effects of a Chemical Weapons attack.
The only possible inference you can draw from that is the JAM were accusing the Syrians of using the LSD -like 3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate (QNB/BZ).
The visions we saw of Syrian civilians demanding the JAM leave them alone were merely the hallucinogenic effects of that toxin.
What is also clear is that calls for western military action to punish the Syrian government for Chemical Weapons attacks began long before any Chemical Weapons attacks.
On February 27th (27/2/18) British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs (Senior Foreign Minister) Boris Johnson promised UK military strikes against the Syrians. If and when the JAM claimed Chemical Weapons attacks had occurred.
At that point the battle of East Ghouta was less then 24 hours old.
On March 2nd (2/3/18) the US' Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Nikki Hailey demanded an investigation into Syrian Chemical Weapons attacks in East Ghouta.
On March 6th (6/3/18) then US National Security Adviser H.R McMaster presented US President Trump with plans for military strikes against Syria. In response to Chemical Weapons attacks in East Ghouta.
On March 9th (9/3/18) US Secretary of Defence James Mattis confirmed that US plans for military strikes against the Syrians were in place. They would be acted on as soon as the JAM claimed the Nerve Agent GB/Sarin was used.
Russia has claimed that a foreign intelligence agency coordinated with the JAM to stage the April 7th (7/4/18) Chemical Weapons attack in Douma, East Ghouta.
There certainly seem to be indicators that this could be true.
Not that western nations have directly conspired with the JAM to stage the April 7th (7/4/18). They have just miscalculated and through their public statements led the JAM to believe they would have support if they went ahead.
One thing I have been able to cover is that on or around March 4th (4/3/18) three individuals were taken ill in the UK city of Salisbury.
They have since been identified as Sergei Skripal a Russian agent of Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6, his daughter Yulia and a British police officer Nick Bailey.
On March 12th (12/3/18) British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that the three had been poisoned by Russia.
On April 12th (12/4/18) the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN's chemical weapons regulator - released the findings of their investigation;
There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 14th (14/4/18) the UK conducted missile strikes against Syria. Officially as punishment for the April 7th (7/4/18) Chemical Weapons attack in Douma, East Ghouta.
Yesterday (16/4/17) and today (17/4/18) has seen two days of emergency debates in the UK Parliament over the military action of April 14th (14/4/18).
During the period of recess leading up to these Parliamentary debates we have learnt two things about the Britain's governing Conservative Party.
The first of these is that it is utterly incapable of properly assessing intelligence.
The accusation that Russia was responsible for the Skripal poisoning is based entirely on a human source. A person Britain has presumably paid a lot of money for this information.
The going rate for this type of thing is around US$100,000. However even after becoming the subject of an MI6 Burn Notice Christopher Steele was paid around US$230,000 for his Trump dossier.
Britain's Skripal source claimed that Russia was conducting training to assassinate enemies uses the Nerve Agent Novichok in gel form. This Novichok was being produced at the Shikhany-2 facility.
Along with the OPCW Britain's own research has been unable to prove that the Skripals were poisoned with Novichok. That failure to identify Novichok as the chemical used has proved that it was not produced at Shikhany-2.
British research has also proved the chemical was administered in liquid form. Rather than gel form.
So that is now three elements of this paid source's claim which Britain has proven to be untrue.
It might be time to entertain the idea that maybe the source was lying.
We have also learnt the the Conservative Attorney General Jeremy Wright's understanding of the law is so poor he is unable to tell what is a legal instrument and what is not a legal instrument.
As a result you would expect these two days of Parliamentary debate see Britain's Conservative government utterly destroyed.
Unfortunately British Parliamentarians are either too stupid or too simpering to hold the government to account.
To give you an idea of the tone of these debates Parliamentarians of all stripes have been falling over themselves to congratulate the "Heroic" Royal Air Force (RAF) on April 14th's (14/4/18); "Difficult and dangerous operation."
The RAF have been conducting operations in Syria since December 2015. As part of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The typical CJTFOIR operation for the RAF involves them taking off from a base in Cyprus. Somewhere in the air over Syria they refuel from a CJTFOIR tanker flown from a variety of bases across the region.
The RAF planes then embark on a patrol beat. Depending on how long this patrol beat is they may refuel several times in the skies over Syria.
As part of that patrol beat the RAF may be called upon to attack targets on the ground.
This involves them flying really low over the target to drop either Paveway bombs of Brimstone missiles. All while trying to avoid cannon fire and the constant threat of MANPAD anti-aircraft missiles.
Once their patrol is complete the RAF once again refuel in the skies over Syria before returning to base in Cyprus.
Saturday's (14/4/17) mission involved the RAF firing Storm Shadow missiles. These are known as; "Stand Off Weapons".
In short you fire them really far away from the target. The missiles then fly themselves to the target.
So on Saturday's (14/4/18) mission the RAF took off from their base in Cyprus. Flew to the edge of Syria's airspace. Fired their missiles and returned to base in time for breakfast.
Obviously Saturday's (14/4/18) RAF pilots are the same pilots that conduct the CJTFOIR missions.
However if they were different the CJTFOIR pilots would be mocking Saturday's (14/4/18) pilots. Over how they can only be trusted with the really simple jobs.
For the most part this really only highlights how out of touch with reality British Parliamentarians really are.
I can see why though the likes of Prime Minister May and Attorney General Wright need to pretend the RAF aren't flying CJTFOIR missions on a daily basis.
The fact a UN Chapter 7 resolution is already in place on Syria does of course destroy their claim it is impossible to get a UN Chapter 7 resolution on Syria.
It also proves that through the April 14th (14/4/18) strikes they have violated that UN Chapter 7 resolution.
20:25 on 17/4/18 (UK date).
In that time the battle for Afrin Canton has been completed. The battle for East Ghouta has also begun. And been completed.
As a result I am still trying to piece together the exact order of battle. For not one but two large battles.
If you are unfamiliar with the term; "Order of Battle." It is a posh way of saying; "Hundreds of Soldiers Are Running About."
I am still about a month behind. So this process will not be completed this week. Last week was not exactly conducive to progress.
Particularly in the UK it seems to have gone out of fashion. I though prefer to complete my research before reaching my conclusions.
Under that caveat though a pattern does seem to have emerged in East Ghouta;
The main terror groups operating there are/were The Base/Al Qaeda (AQ), the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and the Legion of al-Rahman/Faylaq al-Rahman (FAR). They operate as the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad (JAM) coalition.
Over the course of the battle they have suffered a number of setbacks. For example;
On March 5th (5/3/18) their eastern defensive line collapsed. This saw the JAM lose about 35% of the territory they initially controlled in more-or-less a single day.
On March 6th (6/3/18) civilians in the town of Hammouriyah rose up against the JAM and demanded that they leave.
On March 8th (5/3/18) the Syrians unified their axis' splitting the JAM's forces in two. This saw the JAM losses rise to about 50% of the territory they initially controlled.
Every time they have suffered one of these setbacks the JAM have accused the Syrians of using Chemical Weapons. Typically Chlorine.
A notable incident occurred on March 8th (8/3/18) in Hammouriyah. The JAM claimed that Chlorine gas had been used.
The civilian medical providers in Hammouriyah then denied that claim. The people shown in the videos JAM released were in fact suffering from smoke inhalation, carbon monoxide poisoning and other breathing problems associated with fiery explosions.
On March 6th (6/3/18) the JAM actually claimed the protests against them in Hammouriyah were not protests at all. Instead they were the effects of a Chemical Weapons attack.
The only possible inference you can draw from that is the JAM were accusing the Syrians of using the LSD -like 3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate (QNB/BZ).
The visions we saw of Syrian civilians demanding the JAM leave them alone were merely the hallucinogenic effects of that toxin.
What is also clear is that calls for western military action to punish the Syrian government for Chemical Weapons attacks began long before any Chemical Weapons attacks.
On February 27th (27/2/18) British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs (Senior Foreign Minister) Boris Johnson promised UK military strikes against the Syrians. If and when the JAM claimed Chemical Weapons attacks had occurred.
At that point the battle of East Ghouta was less then 24 hours old.
On March 2nd (2/3/18) the US' Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Nikki Hailey demanded an investigation into Syrian Chemical Weapons attacks in East Ghouta.
On March 6th (6/3/18) then US National Security Adviser H.R McMaster presented US President Trump with plans for military strikes against Syria. In response to Chemical Weapons attacks in East Ghouta.
On March 9th (9/3/18) US Secretary of Defence James Mattis confirmed that US plans for military strikes against the Syrians were in place. They would be acted on as soon as the JAM claimed the Nerve Agent GB/Sarin was used.
Russia has claimed that a foreign intelligence agency coordinated with the JAM to stage the April 7th (7/4/18) Chemical Weapons attack in Douma, East Ghouta.
There certainly seem to be indicators that this could be true.
Not that western nations have directly conspired with the JAM to stage the April 7th (7/4/18). They have just miscalculated and through their public statements led the JAM to believe they would have support if they went ahead.
One thing I have been able to cover is that on or around March 4th (4/3/18) three individuals were taken ill in the UK city of Salisbury.
They have since been identified as Sergei Skripal a Russian agent of Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6, his daughter Yulia and a British police officer Nick Bailey.
On March 12th (12/3/18) British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that the three had been poisoned by Russia.
On April 12th (12/4/18) the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN's chemical weapons regulator - released the findings of their investigation;
There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 14th (14/4/18) the UK conducted missile strikes against Syria. Officially as punishment for the April 7th (7/4/18) Chemical Weapons attack in Douma, East Ghouta.
Yesterday (16/4/17) and today (17/4/18) has seen two days of emergency debates in the UK Parliament over the military action of April 14th (14/4/18).
During the period of recess leading up to these Parliamentary debates we have learnt two things about the Britain's governing Conservative Party.
The first of these is that it is utterly incapable of properly assessing intelligence.
The accusation that Russia was responsible for the Skripal poisoning is based entirely on a human source. A person Britain has presumably paid a lot of money for this information.
The going rate for this type of thing is around US$100,000. However even after becoming the subject of an MI6 Burn Notice Christopher Steele was paid around US$230,000 for his Trump dossier.
Britain's Skripal source claimed that Russia was conducting training to assassinate enemies uses the Nerve Agent Novichok in gel form. This Novichok was being produced at the Shikhany-2 facility.
Along with the OPCW Britain's own research has been unable to prove that the Skripals were poisoned with Novichok. That failure to identify Novichok as the chemical used has proved that it was not produced at Shikhany-2.
British research has also proved the chemical was administered in liquid form. Rather than gel form.
So that is now three elements of this paid source's claim which Britain has proven to be untrue.
It might be time to entertain the idea that maybe the source was lying.
We have also learnt the the Conservative Attorney General Jeremy Wright's understanding of the law is so poor he is unable to tell what is a legal instrument and what is not a legal instrument.
As a result you would expect these two days of Parliamentary debate see Britain's Conservative government utterly destroyed.
Unfortunately British Parliamentarians are either too stupid or too simpering to hold the government to account.
To give you an idea of the tone of these debates Parliamentarians of all stripes have been falling over themselves to congratulate the "Heroic" Royal Air Force (RAF) on April 14th's (14/4/18); "Difficult and dangerous operation."
The RAF have been conducting operations in Syria since December 2015. As part of Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).
The typical CJTFOIR operation for the RAF involves them taking off from a base in Cyprus. Somewhere in the air over Syria they refuel from a CJTFOIR tanker flown from a variety of bases across the region.
The RAF planes then embark on a patrol beat. Depending on how long this patrol beat is they may refuel several times in the skies over Syria.
As part of that patrol beat the RAF may be called upon to attack targets on the ground.
This involves them flying really low over the target to drop either Paveway bombs of Brimstone missiles. All while trying to avoid cannon fire and the constant threat of MANPAD anti-aircraft missiles.
Once their patrol is complete the RAF once again refuel in the skies over Syria before returning to base in Cyprus.
Saturday's (14/4/17) mission involved the RAF firing Storm Shadow missiles. These are known as; "Stand Off Weapons".
In short you fire them really far away from the target. The missiles then fly themselves to the target.
So on Saturday's (14/4/18) mission the RAF took off from their base in Cyprus. Flew to the edge of Syria's airspace. Fired their missiles and returned to base in time for breakfast.
Obviously Saturday's (14/4/18) RAF pilots are the same pilots that conduct the CJTFOIR missions.
However if they were different the CJTFOIR pilots would be mocking Saturday's (14/4/18) pilots. Over how they can only be trusted with the really simple jobs.
For the most part this really only highlights how out of touch with reality British Parliamentarians really are.
I can see why though the likes of Prime Minister May and Attorney General Wright need to pretend the RAF aren't flying CJTFOIR missions on a daily basis.
The fact a UN Chapter 7 resolution is already in place on Syria does of course destroy their claim it is impossible to get a UN Chapter 7 resolution on Syria.
It also proves that through the April 14th (14/4/18) strikes they have violated that UN Chapter 7 resolution.
20:25 on 17/4/18 (UK date).
Sunday 15 April 2018
Theresa May: War Criminal.
On or around March 4th (4/3/18) three individuals were taken ill in the UK city of Salisbury.
They have since been identified as Sergei Skripal a Russian agent of Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6, his daughter Yulia and a British police officer Nick Bailey.
On March 12th (12/3/18) British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that the three had been poisoned by Russia.
Specifically using a nerve agent known as; "Novichok" which had been produced at the Shikhany-2 facility. Located just outside of Moscow.
On March 22nd (22/3/18) the British Court of Protection (COP) released details of Porton Down's analysis of the chemical used in Salisbury.
This declared Theresa May to be a liar. There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 3rd (3/4/18) the normally very camera shy head of the Porton Down laboratory Gary Aitkenhead insisted that Britain's Sky News interview him. Not only on the record but also on camera.
In this interview Aitkenhead restated the fact that Theresa May is a liar. There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 12th the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN's chemical weapons regulator - released the findings of their investigation.
This confirmed Britain's findings and declarations that Theresa May is a liar.
There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
It was obvious to all who read and understood the March 22nd (22/3/18) documents. However the OPCW report made it undeniable that Theresa May was a liar.
Theresa May has lied to the United Nations.
Theresa May has lied to NATO.
Theresa May has lied to the European Union.
Theresa May has lied to the British Parliament.
Most importantly Theresa May has lied to the British public.
So Theresa May spent April 12th (12/4/18) on the brink of being impeached when the UK Parliament returns to work on Monday (15/4/18).
Theresa May's response was to convene her cabinet on the afternoon of April 12th (12/4/18). In order to order British military action against Syria.
On April 7th (7/4/18) the sort of people you wouldn't normally trust claimed a Chemical Weapons attack had taken place in Douma. A suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus.
As soon as April 8th (8/4/18) Theresa May saw fit to declare not only that this attack had taken place but that is was carried out by the Syrians.
On April 9th (9/4/18) the Syrians invited the OPCW to conduct an investigation. Due to the logistics of assembling a team and dispatching them to Syria that investigation was set to begin on April 14th (14/4/18).
Generally speaking people do not request investigations which are going to prove them to be guilty.
Therefore along with her track record it seems that in around three weeks time Theresa May would be declared to be a liar by the OPCW. For the second time in under a month.
So in technically the very early hours of April 14th (14/4/18) the UK conducted airstrikes against Syria. It was accompanied by France and the US.
Involving more than 100 missiles the British led strikes targeted the Syrian military bases of Barzah near Damascus alongside Him Shinshar in Homs Province.
These are the two bases the OPCW have been invited to inspect. In order to prove or disprove the claim they were involved in the Douma.
So if there was evidence proving that the Syrians did not conduct a Chemical Weapons attack and once again that Theresa May has lied.
Well Theresa May's just blown it into tiny little pieces.
Following the strikes the UK published what it claims is its legal authority to conduct the strikes.
It can be read here; https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/syria-action-uk-government-legal-position/syria-action-uk-government-legal-position
It is based entirely on the doctrine of humanitarian intervention known as; "Responsibility to Protect (R2P)."
The immediate problem with this is that Responsibility to Protect is not an aspect of international law.
Instead it is a theological doctrine on the ethics of war. It is equivalent to the Catholic Church's doctrine of "Just War." Or Malcolm X's "On Black People & War."
None of these doctrines carry any legal weight or have any legal authority.
The only way that one nation can legally take military action against another nation is under a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution passed under Chapter 7.
Included within Chapter 7 there is Article 51. Often known as the self-defence clause this allows for military action to be taken without a Chapter 7 resolution in extremely limited circumstances.
Firstly there must be a direct threat to the nation taking action or having action taken on its behalf. An attack in Syria simply does not pose a direct threat to the UK.
Secondly it must stand a reasonable chance of removing that threat. Destroying Chlorine in Syria does nothing to remove the vast amounts of Chlorine freely available within the UK.
Despite yesterday's strikes in Syria I can still go up to my bathroom in the UK and create Chlorine gas in the time it takes you to read this sentence.
In fact that is so easy to do I did it by accident in March 2016. That Chemical Weapons attack did damage to nothing but my pride.
Thirdly the threat must be so imminent that there is no time for the UNSC to meet.
The UNSC met on the issue in the hours prior to the attack. At no point during that meeting did the UK or any other nation seek to obtain a Chapter 7 resolution.
The UK has and will continue to argue that it did not seek a Chapter 7 resolution because Russia would veto it. This is also legal bunkum.
A UNSC veto is not an absolute. They can be overturned by a majority vote in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). This happened as recently at December 2017 when the UNGA overturned a US veto on Jerusalem.
You will notice that throughout these seven years of screaming; "It's Russia's Fault!" nobody has sought a UNGA vote to overturn Russia's veto.
That is because they know they are lying. They know that because they are lying the UNGA will not support them. They will lose the vote and Russia's veto will stand.
In fact if it wasn't for Russia's veto allowing certain nations a free ride the UK would likely find its support on the UNSC utterly collapse.
They would be left with the support of just the European nation they elected to the UNSC to ensure a vote against Russia. Poland has recently replaced Ukraine in this role.
Even Sweden has shown itself to be a rational actor.
Proving that it is far from impossible to get a Chapter 7 resolution on Syria there is already a Chapter 7 resolution in effect on Syria. UNSCR 2170 (2014).
The existence of UNSCR 2170 makes it impossible for any nation to invoke Article 51 in relation to Syria.
UNSCR 2170 obligates nations do everything in their power to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda. It forbids nations from taking action in support of ISIL or Al Qaeda.
On April 7th (7/4/18) Douma was under the occupation of the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad coalition. This is made up of the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and Al Qaeda in Syria.
So not only has the UK's action been taking in the absence of a Chapter 7 resolution. It has been taken in violation of a Chapter 7 resolution.
At around 11:35 on 15/4/18 (UK date) I will pick this up later.
Edited at around 16:35 on 15/4/18 (UK date) to add;
As I've said Responsibility to Protect (R2P) carries no legal weight nor authority.
Therefore I may as well use this time to discuss Henry Wadsworth Longfellow's epic 1855 poem "The Song of Hiawatha" as a legal justification for military action against Syria. They both certainly have an aroma of colonialism about them.
However having invoked the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect Britain has then failed to follow the doctrine of R2P.
In short R2P argues that there is a moral responsibility to protect civilians from Crimes Against Humanity. Regardless of which nation state they are citizens of.
Crimes Against Humanity are defined by the 1998 Rome Statute. There are only six of them; Murder, Extermination, Torture, Rape, Political, Religious and Ethnic Persecution.
The use of Chemical Weapons is not considered a Crime Against Humanity.
In a time of peace the use of Chemical Warfare agents is considered perfectly normal and acceptable. Every British police officer carries a can of CS Gas with them whenever they are on duty.
However in a time of war the use of Chemical Warfare agents is considered a War Crime.
Although not strictly speaking it accurate is best to think of War Crimes as Misdemeanours and Crimes Against Humanity as Felonies.
Every time there is a claim that the Syrian government has used Chemical Weapons people queue up to talk about the longstanding international taboo against the use of Chemical Weapons.
When anybody except the Syria government has proved to have used Chemical Weapons those same people remain silent.
Putting aside that selective outrage this claim of a longstanding international taboo against the use of Chemical Weapons is an example of revisionist history.
This longstanding taboo seems to have come into existence in 2011. Just as Islamist nations started trying to overthrow Syria's secular government.
Through the 1925 Geneva Protocol nations did outlaw the use of Chemical Weapons.
However they put the use of Chemical Weapons on a par with other War Crimes such as stealing cap badges as trophies from dead enemies.
Despite signing the 1925 Geneva Protocol nations continued to invent new Chemical Weapons and more effective ways to use them.
The specific Chemical Weapon it is claimed the Syrians used in Jobar in 2013 and in Khan Sheikhoun in 2017 is "GB." Sometimes known as; "Sarin" this is part of the G-Series of Nerve Agents.
The G-Series was invented in Nazi Germany in 1938. Some 13 years after the 1925 Geneva Protocol.
During the Second World War both Britain and the US stockpiled massive amounts of Sulphur Mustard, Chlorine, Lewsite, Phosgene and Paris Green. Particularly at the M.S Factory in Rhydymwyn, Wales.
In 1944 then British Prime Minister Winston Churchill wrote a memorandum advocating the use of those Chemical Weapons along with the Biological Warfare agent Anthrax against Nazi Germany.
What led to this idea being rejected was the experience of strategic bombing using conventional weapons that had occurred earlier in the war.
In March 1940 Britain took the decision to start the strategic bombing of German cities. In September 1940 Nazi Germany responded in kind and began the strategic bombing of British cities. This nearly year of devastation is known in Britain as; "The Blitz."
As such Churchill was advised that if Britain began using Chemical Weapons Nazi Germany would respond in kind. By using Chemical Weapons against Britain.
It was this concern over British casualties rather than a moral objection which prevented the Britain using Chemical Weapons.
During the Second World War Nazi Germany exterminated around 11 million people. Predominately using a Cyanide based poison named Zyklon-B.
Zyklon-B was used against civilian prisoners rather than combatants on the battlefield. So technically it is not an example of Chemical Weapons use.
However that legal pedantry most certainly does not reveal a moral objection to poisoning people. Neither does the US' continued use of chemical poisons as a way to execute prisoners.
The main thing that stopped Chemical Weapons being used during the Second World War was really the changing nature of warfare.
The First World War was fought by tens of thousands of troops stationary in entrenched positions. This made Chemical Weapons very effective. You could simply release a chemical cloud over your enemies trenches.
The Second World War was dominated by the tactic of; "Blitzkrieg" or; "Lightening War." This involved fast moving columns of tanks and troops supported by airpower.
This made Chemical Weapons largely ineffective. There was rarely enough troops in one place long enough.
Following the Second World War nations continued to invent new Chemical Weapons and more effective ways to use them.
Although those claims have been shown to be false the Novichok which has been talked about in relation to Salisbury is part of the V-Series of Nerve Agents. These were invented by the UK in 1953. Some 28 years after the 1925 Geneva Protocol.
What prevented Chemical Weapons being used after the Second World War was the invention of Nuclear Weapons in 1945. The UK actually traded its knowledge of the V-Series for the US' knowledge of Nuclear Weapons.
Nerve Agents can be devastating when deployed correctly. However it is extremely difficult to deploy them correctly. Making them highly unreliable.
By contrast once you've figured out how to make the Nuclear Weapons are effective 100% of the time. They are also far more destructive than Chemical Weapons.
The use of Chemical Weapons against a Nuclear armed state would provoke a Nuclear response. No sane nation would ever do that.
So what has stopped Chemical Weapons being used in the age of Nuclear Weapons is not a moral objection to killing a large number of people. It is the deterrent effect of mutually assured destruction.
Despite this there have been numerous examples of Chemical Weapons use between non-Nuclear armed actors.
The most serious example of this was Saddam Hussein's 1986 to 1989 Anfal Campaign against Iraq's Kurds.
This genocide which exterminated some 180,000 people included the March 1988 Halabja Massacre. Here Saddam used a combination of Chemical Weapons including G-Series and V-Series Nerve Agents to kill around 5,000 civilians.
At the time Saddam Hussein was allied with the western powers of the UK, the US and France. Iraq's Kurds were allied with Russia and Iran.
So the UK, the US and France's initial response to the Halabja Massacre and the wider Anfal Campaign was to deny that it had taken place.
When it was impossible for them to deny they accused Russia and Iran of carrying out the attack as a False Flag Operation to smear the good name of Saddam Hussein.
No action was taken to punish Iraq over the use of Chemical Weapons. The Anfal Campaign was allowed to continue for another year.
Of course in March 2003 the US and the UK suddenly decided they were outraged by the Halabja Massacre. France is yet to condemn it.
Within the current conflict in Iraq and Syria the use of Chemical Weapons is a matter of routine.
They are particularly widely used by the Army of Islam who claim the Syrians conducted the April 7th (7/4/18) attack in Douma.
In April 2016 the Army of Islam freely admitted using Sulphur Mustard Gas against Kurdish civilians in Aleppo City.
Roughly two weeks later they again used Sulphur Mustard Gas against Kurdish civilians in Aleppo City.
We are still waiting for the UK, the US and France to acknowledge the Army of Islam's Chemical Weapons attacks.
Let alone condemn them.
17:40 on 15/4/18 (UK date).
They have since been identified as Sergei Skripal a Russian agent of Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6, his daughter Yulia and a British police officer Nick Bailey.
On March 12th (12/3/18) British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that the three had been poisoned by Russia.
Specifically using a nerve agent known as; "Novichok" which had been produced at the Shikhany-2 facility. Located just outside of Moscow.
On March 22nd (22/3/18) the British Court of Protection (COP) released details of Porton Down's analysis of the chemical used in Salisbury.
This declared Theresa May to be a liar. There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 3rd (3/4/18) the normally very camera shy head of the Porton Down laboratory Gary Aitkenhead insisted that Britain's Sky News interview him. Not only on the record but also on camera.
In this interview Aitkenhead restated the fact that Theresa May is a liar. There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
On April 12th the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) - the UN's chemical weapons regulator - released the findings of their investigation.
This confirmed Britain's findings and declarations that Theresa May is a liar.
There was no evidence that Novichok was the chemical used. Let alone that the chemical had been produced by Russia.
It was obvious to all who read and understood the March 22nd (22/3/18) documents. However the OPCW report made it undeniable that Theresa May was a liar.
Theresa May has lied to the United Nations.
Theresa May has lied to NATO.
Theresa May has lied to the European Union.
Theresa May has lied to the British Parliament.
Most importantly Theresa May has lied to the British public.
So Theresa May spent April 12th (12/4/18) on the brink of being impeached when the UK Parliament returns to work on Monday (15/4/18).
Theresa May's response was to convene her cabinet on the afternoon of April 12th (12/4/18). In order to order British military action against Syria.
On April 7th (7/4/18) the sort of people you wouldn't normally trust claimed a Chemical Weapons attack had taken place in Douma. A suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus.
As soon as April 8th (8/4/18) Theresa May saw fit to declare not only that this attack had taken place but that is was carried out by the Syrians.
On April 9th (9/4/18) the Syrians invited the OPCW to conduct an investigation. Due to the logistics of assembling a team and dispatching them to Syria that investigation was set to begin on April 14th (14/4/18).
Generally speaking people do not request investigations which are going to prove them to be guilty.
Therefore along with her track record it seems that in around three weeks time Theresa May would be declared to be a liar by the OPCW. For the second time in under a month.
So in technically the very early hours of April 14th (14/4/18) the UK conducted airstrikes against Syria. It was accompanied by France and the US.
Involving more than 100 missiles the British led strikes targeted the Syrian military bases of Barzah near Damascus alongside Him Shinshar in Homs Province.
These are the two bases the OPCW have been invited to inspect. In order to prove or disprove the claim they were involved in the Douma.
So if there was evidence proving that the Syrians did not conduct a Chemical Weapons attack and once again that Theresa May has lied.
Well Theresa May's just blown it into tiny little pieces.
Following the strikes the UK published what it claims is its legal authority to conduct the strikes.
It can be read here; https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/syria-action-uk-government-legal-position/syria-action-uk-government-legal-position
It is based entirely on the doctrine of humanitarian intervention known as; "Responsibility to Protect (R2P)."
The immediate problem with this is that Responsibility to Protect is not an aspect of international law.
Instead it is a theological doctrine on the ethics of war. It is equivalent to the Catholic Church's doctrine of "Just War." Or Malcolm X's "On Black People & War."
None of these doctrines carry any legal weight or have any legal authority.
The only way that one nation can legally take military action against another nation is under a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution passed under Chapter 7.
Included within Chapter 7 there is Article 51. Often known as the self-defence clause this allows for military action to be taken without a Chapter 7 resolution in extremely limited circumstances.
Firstly there must be a direct threat to the nation taking action or having action taken on its behalf. An attack in Syria simply does not pose a direct threat to the UK.
Secondly it must stand a reasonable chance of removing that threat. Destroying Chlorine in Syria does nothing to remove the vast amounts of Chlorine freely available within the UK.
Despite yesterday's strikes in Syria I can still go up to my bathroom in the UK and create Chlorine gas in the time it takes you to read this sentence.
In fact that is so easy to do I did it by accident in March 2016. That Chemical Weapons attack did damage to nothing but my pride.
Thirdly the threat must be so imminent that there is no time for the UNSC to meet.
The UNSC met on the issue in the hours prior to the attack. At no point during that meeting did the UK or any other nation seek to obtain a Chapter 7 resolution.
The UK has and will continue to argue that it did not seek a Chapter 7 resolution because Russia would veto it. This is also legal bunkum.
A UNSC veto is not an absolute. They can be overturned by a majority vote in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). This happened as recently at December 2017 when the UNGA overturned a US veto on Jerusalem.
You will notice that throughout these seven years of screaming; "It's Russia's Fault!" nobody has sought a UNGA vote to overturn Russia's veto.
That is because they know they are lying. They know that because they are lying the UNGA will not support them. They will lose the vote and Russia's veto will stand.
In fact if it wasn't for Russia's veto allowing certain nations a free ride the UK would likely find its support on the UNSC utterly collapse.
They would be left with the support of just the European nation they elected to the UNSC to ensure a vote against Russia. Poland has recently replaced Ukraine in this role.
Even Sweden has shown itself to be a rational actor.
Proving that it is far from impossible to get a Chapter 7 resolution on Syria there is already a Chapter 7 resolution in effect on Syria. UNSCR 2170 (2014).
The existence of UNSCR 2170 makes it impossible for any nation to invoke Article 51 in relation to Syria.
UNSCR 2170 obligates nations do everything in their power to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda. It forbids nations from taking action in support of ISIL or Al Qaeda.
On April 7th (7/4/18) Douma was under the occupation of the Army of Mohammad/Jaish al-Mohammad coalition. This is made up of the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and Al Qaeda in Syria.
So not only has the UK's action been taking in the absence of a Chapter 7 resolution. It has been taken in violation of a Chapter 7 resolution.
At around 11:35 on 15/4/18 (UK date) I will pick this up later.
Edited at around 16:35 on 15/4/18 (UK date) to add;
As I've said Responsibility to Protect (R2P) carries no legal weight nor authority.
Therefore I may as well use this time to discuss Henry Wadsworth Longfellow's epic 1855 poem "The Song of Hiawatha" as a legal justification for military action against Syria. They both certainly have an aroma of colonialism about them.
However having invoked the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect Britain has then failed to follow the doctrine of R2P.
In short R2P argues that there is a moral responsibility to protect civilians from Crimes Against Humanity. Regardless of which nation state they are citizens of.
Crimes Against Humanity are defined by the 1998 Rome Statute. There are only six of them; Murder, Extermination, Torture, Rape, Political, Religious and Ethnic Persecution.
The use of Chemical Weapons is not considered a Crime Against Humanity.
In a time of peace the use of Chemical Warfare agents is considered perfectly normal and acceptable. Every British police officer carries a can of CS Gas with them whenever they are on duty.
However in a time of war the use of Chemical Warfare agents is considered a War Crime.
Although not strictly speaking it accurate is best to think of War Crimes as Misdemeanours and Crimes Against Humanity as Felonies.
Every time there is a claim that the Syrian government has used Chemical Weapons people queue up to talk about the longstanding international taboo against the use of Chemical Weapons.
When anybody except the Syria government has proved to have used Chemical Weapons those same people remain silent.
Putting aside that selective outrage this claim of a longstanding international taboo against the use of Chemical Weapons is an example of revisionist history.
This longstanding taboo seems to have come into existence in 2011. Just as Islamist nations started trying to overthrow Syria's secular government.
Through the 1925 Geneva Protocol nations did outlaw the use of Chemical Weapons.
However they put the use of Chemical Weapons on a par with other War Crimes such as stealing cap badges as trophies from dead enemies.
Despite signing the 1925 Geneva Protocol nations continued to invent new Chemical Weapons and more effective ways to use them.
The specific Chemical Weapon it is claimed the Syrians used in Jobar in 2013 and in Khan Sheikhoun in 2017 is "GB." Sometimes known as; "Sarin" this is part of the G-Series of Nerve Agents.
The G-Series was invented in Nazi Germany in 1938. Some 13 years after the 1925 Geneva Protocol.
During the Second World War both Britain and the US stockpiled massive amounts of Sulphur Mustard, Chlorine, Lewsite, Phosgene and Paris Green. Particularly at the M.S Factory in Rhydymwyn, Wales.
In 1944 then British Prime Minister Winston Churchill wrote a memorandum advocating the use of those Chemical Weapons along with the Biological Warfare agent Anthrax against Nazi Germany.
What led to this idea being rejected was the experience of strategic bombing using conventional weapons that had occurred earlier in the war.
In March 1940 Britain took the decision to start the strategic bombing of German cities. In September 1940 Nazi Germany responded in kind and began the strategic bombing of British cities. This nearly year of devastation is known in Britain as; "The Blitz."
As such Churchill was advised that if Britain began using Chemical Weapons Nazi Germany would respond in kind. By using Chemical Weapons against Britain.
It was this concern over British casualties rather than a moral objection which prevented the Britain using Chemical Weapons.
During the Second World War Nazi Germany exterminated around 11 million people. Predominately using a Cyanide based poison named Zyklon-B.
Zyklon-B was used against civilian prisoners rather than combatants on the battlefield. So technically it is not an example of Chemical Weapons use.
However that legal pedantry most certainly does not reveal a moral objection to poisoning people. Neither does the US' continued use of chemical poisons as a way to execute prisoners.
The main thing that stopped Chemical Weapons being used during the Second World War was really the changing nature of warfare.
The First World War was fought by tens of thousands of troops stationary in entrenched positions. This made Chemical Weapons very effective. You could simply release a chemical cloud over your enemies trenches.
The Second World War was dominated by the tactic of; "Blitzkrieg" or; "Lightening War." This involved fast moving columns of tanks and troops supported by airpower.
This made Chemical Weapons largely ineffective. There was rarely enough troops in one place long enough.
Following the Second World War nations continued to invent new Chemical Weapons and more effective ways to use them.
Although those claims have been shown to be false the Novichok which has been talked about in relation to Salisbury is part of the V-Series of Nerve Agents. These were invented by the UK in 1953. Some 28 years after the 1925 Geneva Protocol.
What prevented Chemical Weapons being used after the Second World War was the invention of Nuclear Weapons in 1945. The UK actually traded its knowledge of the V-Series for the US' knowledge of Nuclear Weapons.
Nerve Agents can be devastating when deployed correctly. However it is extremely difficult to deploy them correctly. Making them highly unreliable.
By contrast once you've figured out how to make the Nuclear Weapons are effective 100% of the time. They are also far more destructive than Chemical Weapons.
The use of Chemical Weapons against a Nuclear armed state would provoke a Nuclear response. No sane nation would ever do that.
So what has stopped Chemical Weapons being used in the age of Nuclear Weapons is not a moral objection to killing a large number of people. It is the deterrent effect of mutually assured destruction.
Despite this there have been numerous examples of Chemical Weapons use between non-Nuclear armed actors.
The most serious example of this was Saddam Hussein's 1986 to 1989 Anfal Campaign against Iraq's Kurds.
This genocide which exterminated some 180,000 people included the March 1988 Halabja Massacre. Here Saddam used a combination of Chemical Weapons including G-Series and V-Series Nerve Agents to kill around 5,000 civilians.
At the time Saddam Hussein was allied with the western powers of the UK, the US and France. Iraq's Kurds were allied with Russia and Iran.
So the UK, the US and France's initial response to the Halabja Massacre and the wider Anfal Campaign was to deny that it had taken place.
When it was impossible for them to deny they accused Russia and Iran of carrying out the attack as a False Flag Operation to smear the good name of Saddam Hussein.
No action was taken to punish Iraq over the use of Chemical Weapons. The Anfal Campaign was allowed to continue for another year.
Of course in March 2003 the US and the UK suddenly decided they were outraged by the Halabja Massacre. France is yet to condemn it.
Within the current conflict in Iraq and Syria the use of Chemical Weapons is a matter of routine.
They are particularly widely used by the Army of Islam who claim the Syrians conducted the April 7th (7/4/18) attack in Douma.
In April 2016 the Army of Islam freely admitted using Sulphur Mustard Gas against Kurdish civilians in Aleppo City.
Roughly two weeks later they again used Sulphur Mustard Gas against Kurdish civilians in Aleppo City.
We are still waiting for the UK, the US and France to acknowledge the Army of Islam's Chemical Weapons attacks.
Let alone condemn them.
17:40 on 15/4/18 (UK date).
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