Operation Ostrava: Month 15, Week 2, Day 1.

Despite the United Nations Support Mission In Syria (UNSMIS) having it's numbers swelled to 100 observers violence in Syria this past week has increased from the pre-deployment low. Violence specifically targeted against UNSMIS personnel has also started to emerge. Last Wednesday (9/5/12) a UNSMIS convoy was attacked by a roadside bomb in Deraa. While no UN personnel were injured 10 Syrian troops who'd been providing the convoy with security were injured in the attack. Today (15/5/12) another UNSMIS vehicle was destroyed by a roadside bomb near the village of Khan Sheikhoun. Although none of the 7 observers were injured UNSMIS has already responded to the attacks by sending 20 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC's) to Syria in order to transport their staff around the country more safely. Therefore the attacks on UNSMIS appear to be part of a deliberate strategy by the Saudi Irregular Army (SIA) to force UNSMIS to militarise their presence in the country.

The Syrian government has continued arrest missions throughout the country and have continued to be met with armed resistance from the SIA. The most notable of these incidents occurred yesterday (14/5/12) in Rastan. According to SIA sources SIA positions came under light shell fire from a group of 5 Syrian BRDM-type APC's. SIA fighters counter-attacked capturing 2 of the APC's and destroying the other 3 killing 23 Syrian soldiers in the process. Yesterday also saw the violence spread beyond Syria's borders into the Lebanese city of Tripoli where 5 people were killed in gun battles between Sunni Muslims loyal to the SIA and Alawite Muslims loyal to the Syrian government.

The most significant event of the past week though took place in the capital Damascus on Thursday (10/5/12). Here a suicide bomber detonated his car bomb on one of the city's main highways during the morning rush-hour. Once rescue workers and onlookers had been drawn to the scene a second suicide bomber detonated his car bomb. In all 55 people were killed and 350 people wounded in what was undoubtedly a terrorist attack as defined by international law. The Jihadist group the al-Nurusa Front immediately claimed responsibility for the attack as retaliation for the killing of Syrian civilians. They have since retracted that claim of responsibility though meaning that they did it but since then SIA high-command have ordered them to deny responsibility. This is because along with the fighting in Lebanon the Damascus suicide bombings call into sharp focus the very real and serious threat that the SIA now pose to the security and stability of the entire region.

The SIA's initial strategy was to provoke and failing that fake atrocities against Syrian civilians in order to force the international community into launching a Libya-style military intervention that would sweep the Syrian government aside. When it became apparent that this was not going to happen the SIA's next priority was get a ceasefire in place to buy them time to re-group and launch an asymmetric long war fought through repeated terrorist attacks. As the SIA are receiving significant tactical support from Britain the broad model for this campaign is the Irish Republican Army's (IRA) campaign against Britain in the 1970's/80's/90's. The problem is that the available foot soldiers only experience of asymmetric warfare comes from the carnage that engulfed Iraq following the 2003 invasion. Therefore the only option now open to the international community is to withdraw UNSMIS and equip the Syrian government to end the SIA before the whole country catches fire and draws nations like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Israel into the flames.