Egypt's Presidential Election.

On Wednesday May 23rd  (23/5/12) Egyptians will go to the polls to select their first President since the fall of Hosni Mubarak with a run-off taking place on June 16th & 17th. Although there are 13 candidates standing there are only 5 who stand a realistic chance of winning;

• Adbel Moniem Abdolfotoh - This 60 year old doctor and former Muslim Brotherhood activist is standing as an independent and is best described as a moderate Islamist. That is to say that while he believes that Islam should be at the centre of all aspects of Egyptian life he accepts that his beliefs should not overwhelm the rights of Egypt's Christians and non-religious citizens. Bizarrely he is supported by the extreme Islamist (Salafist) al-Nour Party who see him as the most Islamist candidate who isn't representing the Muslim Brotherhood.

• Hisham Bastawisy - This 60 year old Judge is standing on behalf of the secular and mildly socialist National Progressive Unionist Party (Tagamoa). A leader of the opposition to Mubarak during the revolution he is well equipped both ideologically and intellectually to keep the spirit of that revolution going.

• Muhammed Morsi - This 61 year old is representing the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom & Justice Party but is very much seen as the second choice after Khairat al-Shater was disqualified. Therefore he is unlikely to enjoy much support beyond the Brotherhood's powerful base.

• Amr Moussa - This 75 year old career politician and diplomat is standing as an independent after serving as Foreign Minister under Mubarak and head of the Arab League. He is best described as a moderate secularist. That is to say while he believes that Egyptian political and public life should not be dominated by Islam Islamic values should be the guiding inspiration within those spheres.

• Ahmed Shafiq - This 70 year old former air-force general served as Prime Minister under Mubarak. Although officially standing as an independent  Shafiq gets most of his support from the rural poor who didn't really understand or participate in the revolution and the civil servants, military and police personnel and business leaders that make up the so-called "Deep State" which did so well under Mubarak. A Mubarak style secularist Shafiq is very much the candidate for people who want things to go back to the way they were.

Of these five Amr Moussa and Abdel Moniem Abdolfotoh are the two widely tipped to make it through to the run-off. However one big problem Egyptians face in choosing who to vote for is that no-one really knows what role the President will play in Egyptian politics. Obviously they won't be as powerful as they were before the revolution but the Presidents role won't be properly defined until the specially appointed constituents assembly re-writes the nation's constitution. That assembly has yet to begin it's work because since securing a Parliamentary majority the Muslim Brotherhood seem to have gone back on their promise to respect the spirit of the revolution by trying to pack the assembly with Islamists. This has outraged the military, the 30% of Egyptians who voted for secular parties and those Egyptians who only voted from the Brotherhood  because of their commitment to secularism. As a result many Egyptians are talking about the importance of voting for a secular President in order to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood gaining absolute power.

I agree with them and think that non-Brotherhood Islamists should unite behind Amr Moussa while secularists should unite behind Hisham Bastawisy in order to propel those two candidates into the run-off and guarantee a secular President to counter-balance the Muslim Brotherhood's Parliamentary majority.

Controversially I would also like to see the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces go back on their pledge to stand down once the President is elected. That is because if an Islamist President is elected alongside an Islamist Parliament Egypt is likely to leap further towards Islamism then the majority of it's citizens would like. However if a secular President is elected alongside an Islamist Parliament it is like to lead to a sort of political gridlock as the President and Parliament spend a long time trying to work out their differences. This would leave the military with the essential job of keeping day to day life in Egypt running. Also I believe that the military are the one single organisation in Egypt that best understands democratic values and the reforms that are needed to create a democratic society. This is why they've so far failed to make any significant changes to Egyptian society. Once the Egyptian people have elected representatives in the form of Parliament and a President to protect their interests I think the military will be overjoyed to work with them to improve the Egyptian economy by tackling food and fuel subsidies and improve security by setting up a fair and functioning justice system.