Operation Featherweight: Month 38, Week 2, Day 6.

In August 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) overran the Nineveh province of northern Iraq.

There ISIL carried out a genocide of followers of the Yezidi religion. This included the massacre at the town of Sinjar/Shingal which finally shamed the world into taking action against the group. ISIL also seized the city of Mosul and turned it into their de facto capital in Iraq.

On October 17th 2016 (17/10/16) an operation was launched to liberate Mosul. This was a combined operation.

The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga alongside the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias would secure the areas around Mosul while the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) would liberate the city itself. All aspects of the operation were supported by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

In launching this operation former US President Barack Obama had only one priority. To ensure a quick, flag waving victory to propel his designated successor Hillary Clinton to victory in the November 8th 2016 (8/11/16) US Presidential election.

To ensure this the central element of Obama's plan was to leave the entire western side of Mosul undefended. Dubbed; "The Falls Road" this area would allow ISIL to escape back to Syria while mounting only a symbolic defence of Mosul in time for Obama to claim victory in the city and Clinton to claim victory in the election.

The major flaw in Obama's plan is that if ISIL fighters could flee from Mosul to Syria they could just as easily flee from Syria to Turkey. From Turkey ISIL fighters could travel on to anywhere else in the world such as Europe, Libya, the Philippines or Afghanistan.

Fortunately the PMF were well aware of this threat. On October 29th (29/10/17) they opened a front to the west of Mosul to seal off the Falls Road.

This was completed on November 16th 2016 (16/11/16) with the PMF liberating Tal Afar Airport which sits around 7km (4 miles) south of the town of Tal Afar itself. It created what is known as the Qarrayah - Tal Afar Line stretching south from Tal Afar to Qarrayah on the southern front of the Mosul operation.

On March 26th (26/3/17) the PMF created a second line between western Mosul and Tal Afar. Stretching from Tal Zalat south-west of Mosul to Badush north-west of Mosul this is known as the Tal Zalat - Badush Line. It's creation allowed the ISF to open a northern axis within western Mosul.

The PMF then turned their attention to liberating everything between the Qarrayah-Tal Afar Line and Iraq's border with Syria.

This was completed on June 7th (7/6/17) with the liberation of the border village of Tal Safuq. It saw the PMF liberate some 28,000kmsq (16,800milesq) of territory including the ancient city of Hadar/Hatra and Sinjar/Shingal along with the H47 Highway between Tal Afar and Syria.

The problem however has always been Recep Tayyip Erdogan the President/Prime Minister/Emperor of Iraq's northern neighbour Turkey.

Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman. That means he wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire which at its peak stretched from the Balkan region of Europe all across the Middle-East, North Africa (MENA) region. Obviously this includes the Nineveh region of Iraq.

Erdogan sees as key to this effort ethnic Turks known as Turkmen who migrated to northern Iraq and northern Syria during the time of the Ottoman Empire. Tal Afar is predominately occupied by Turkmen.

The Turkmen living in Tal Afar are a mixture of Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims. Erdogan is a Sunni Muslim and he supports the nominally Sunni Muslim ISIL. The PMF are predominately Shia Muslims.

Therefore Erdogan's fear has been that if the Turkmen who live in Tal Afar are liberated from the nominally Sunni ISIL by the Shia PMF they will switch their allegiance away from him. That will make it much harder for Erdogan to fulfil his dream of a new Ottoman Empire with he as its Emperor.

To this end Erdogan issued a simple threat to Iraq and the CJTFOIR coalition; If the PMF liberated Tal Afar he would send Turkish troops to support ISIL in stopping them. To back up this threat Erdogan had already deployed Turkish troops to Iraq's Kurdish Region adjacent to Nineveh Province and amassed further troops on Turkey's border with Iraq.

On July 9th (9/7/17) Mosul itself was liberated. This obviously included the area between Mosul and Tal Zalat-Badush line.

On August 20th (20/8/17) Erdogan's threats were ignored and an operation including the PMF was launched to liberate Tal Afar.

In the face of this operation ISIL's defences rapidly collapsed. Tal Afar was liberated on August 28th (28/8/17). Just 8 days after the operation had begun.

Despite the victory in Tal Afar around 350 ISIL fighters were able to flee to the village of al-Ayaziyah. This is located within the Tal Afar municipal area around 10km (6 miles) north of Tal Afar itself.

Al-Ayaziyah is tiny - barely 1kmsq (0.6milesq). However it is located within the al-Sasan mountains. This makes it is extremely difficult to access with heavy armoured vehicles such as tanks. As a result it took the ISF/PMF until August 29th (29/8/17) to re-deploy from Tal Afar to surround al-Ayaziyah.

Yesterday - August 30th (30/8/17) - the ISF/PMF launched their operation to liberate al-Ayaziyah. Despite the ISF/PMF being forced to fight without heavy armour this operation was completed by the end of the day.

That victory has allowed Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to declare today that Nineveh Province which along with the Kurdish Region makes up the bulk of northern Iraq has been totally liberated from ISIL.

I gather though there continue to be some mopping up operations in the areas of exposed desert between al-Ayaziyah and the Peshmerga positions around 2km (1.2 miles) to the north.

At a NATO meeting in late October 2016 the US was left under no illusion of what its allies thought of Obama's plan to allow ISIL to escape from Mosul back into Syria.

So on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) Obama offered a panicked and poorly thought through solution.

At the same time the Iraqi's were liberating Mosul the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) would conduct an operation to liberate Raqqa which at the time was ISIL's de facto capital within Syria. Located some 200km (120 miles) west of the Syria/Iraq border within the Euphrates River basin.

The SDF is a coalition of Kurdish, Assyrian/Syriac, Turkmen and Arab forces. Both members of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribal forces indigenous to northern Syria. 

Unfortunately at the time Obama made this announcement the SDF were in no way equipped to successfully liberate Raqqa. They weren't even located anywhere near Raqqa. As a result the first stage of the operation was for the SDF to advance on Raqqa from the north, west and east.

This first stage was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at al-Karamah - roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

On March 21st (21/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam. The Tabqa Dam creates Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River and sits roughly 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.The SDF had reached Lake Assad on January 20th (20/1/17).

On May 11th (11/3/17) both the town of Tabqa and Tabqa Dam were liberated by the SDF.

On June 6th (6/6/17) the operation to liberate Raqqa itself was begun.

This saw the SDF enter the city on three axis'; North, West and East. At the same time the SDF launched a west-to-east sweep on the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to cut Raqqa off from the rest of Syria.

The northern axis task was to liberate the former Syrian military - Division 17 - base to the north of the city. This task was completed on or around August 1st (1/8/17). Since then the northern axis has maintained a holding pattern.

The southern sweep succeeded in cutting Raqqa off from the rest of Syria on June 29th (29/6/17).

On July 7th (7/7/17) it liberated the village Ukayrishah some 5km (9 miles) south-east of Raqqa. As of July 24th (24/7/17) this southern sweep has been in a holding pattern having secured positions some 10km (6 miles) south-east of Ukayrishah and roughly 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

Within Raqqa itself the western axis entered the city via the Jazra suburb on June 6th (6/6/17).  By July 3rd (3/7/17) the western axis had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.

The eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) they had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.

On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates. Having liberated the Yarmouk district on July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

On Thursday August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. That limited ISIL to just 16 districts in the north and centre of the city.

Alongside fighting in the Hisham Abdulmalik district the eastern axis also entered the Old City district of Raqqa on July 6th (6/7/17). This sits directly west of the al-Sinaa and Bitani district and directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

The Old City district is made up of four main neighbourhoods. Running clockwise from the north-east these are; Madi, Rafiqa, Rashid and Mansur.

On August 13th (13/8/17) the SDF liberated the Madi and Rafiqa neighbourhoods with the westerly Rashid and Mansur neighbourhoods remaining under ISIL control. On August 22nd (22/8/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in liberating the Rashid neighbourhood of the Old City district.

Directly to the west of the Old City district you have what is believed to be ISIL's main headquarters within Raqqa.

This stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah and the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the football stadium.

On June 28th (28/6/17) the western axis entered the an-Nadah district. This sits directly south of the al-Bayrd district and directly east of the Hattin district.

Alongside liberating the Shahada district they have continued to advance in the Nadah district. This includes liberating the Karim district directly to the south on August 6th (6/8/17).

Although not particularly wide the an-Nadah district is quite long. It stretches almost from the western outskirts of Raqqa down to the Hanah district and the National Hospital.

As the SDF have begun to approach ISIL's believed headquarters from both the east and west they appear to have reached another level of defences. This means that the intensity of the fighting has increased dramatically and progress has slowed.

Since my post on August 24th (24/8/17) the eastern axis has continued to fight to liberate the Mansur neighbourhood of the Old City district. They also continue to fight to liberate the al-Rawdah district which they first entered on June 28th (28/6/17).

In both areas the SDF have continued to advance on a city block by city block basis.

Within the Mansur neighbourhood they hold total control of 45% and exert disputed control over 100%. Within the al-Rawdah district they have reached the northern section of the H6 Highway which divides it from the al-Thawrah district putting them in total control of around 70% of the district with disputed control over 100%.

The western axis continues to advance within the al-Nadah district on a similar city block by city block basis. They are currently in the area around the Dalaa junction which is around 50-60% along the length of the district.

On Sunday (28/8/17) the SDF did secure a significant strategic victory when they liberated the Children's Hospital.

This multi-storey complex sits on the junction between the Shahada and al-Moroor districts and what is known as the "Security Box." The al-Moroor district sits directly south of the al-Nadah district. It has long functioned as a base and command centre for ISIL. It was considered one of the key buildings on the south-eastern outskirts of what is believed to be ISIL main headquarters within Raqqa.

During these advances the SDF have been able to rescue over 200 civilian families liberating them from ISIL and bringing them to safety away from the fighting. They have also killed in the region of 190 ISIL fighters.

These gains though have not come without losses with the SDF confirming the deaths of 3 of their fighters.

These include Adnan Abu Amjad. He'd fought heroically with the SDF since the Battle of Kobane in late 2014 and in the battles of Tal Abyad, Tishrin and Manbij where he became head of the SDF's Manbij Military Council (MMC). At the time of his death he was leading the MMC as part of the SDF's efforts to liberate Raqqa.

The battle for Raqqa is taking place at southern edge of an area under SDF control designated; "Shangri-La."

Shangri-La stretches from the Syria/Iraq border to the east to broadly speaking the Euphrates River in the west. Although there are areas of Syrian control south of the city of Hasakah generally speaking the southern boundary of Shangri-La is the Euphrates River basin where ISIL continue to hold the cities of Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour.

The SDF also control a smaller area in the north-west of Syria roughly 3,000kmsq (1,800milesq) in size. This is centred around the city of Afrin and has been designated; "The Afrin Canton."

Between Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton you have a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road."

On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade Garvaghy Road. The purpose was to prevent the SDF linking Shangri-La to Afrin Canton because in doing so they would cut a vital ISIL supply route running to and from Turkey.

Although the western boundary of Shangri-La is generally considered to be the Euphrates River the SDF do control a small area west of the river up to and including the town of Manbij. This sits roughly 25km (15 miles) south-west of the Tishrin Dam across the Euphrates. It was fully liberated on August 27th 2016 (27/8/16).

It is this area Adnan Abu Amjad helped to liberate through the battles of Tishrin and Manbij and where the Manbij Military Council (MMC) was established.

The remaining parts of Syria is dominated by a threeway conflict between ISIL, the Syrians along with their Russian, Iranian and Lebanese backers and the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The Army of Conquest is an Sunni Islamist organisation which is allied with ISIL.

One of the largest factions with the Army of Conquest is the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF). They are the Syrian wing of The Base/Al Qaeda (AQ). In an effort to disguise their links to Al Qaeda they have recently taken to referring to themselves as the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayy'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Nobody recognises the name change

The second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.

Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves. The UTA are particularly active within Garvaghy Road alongside the regular Turkish military.

Other factions within the Army of Conquest include the small but extremely nasty Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and Islamist fragments of the now defunct FSA.

These areas fall under the purview of the Astana Process. This sees Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran working to find a solution to the conflict between Syria and the Army of Conquest.

It was formed in December 2016 in response to the December 12th (12/12/16) liberation of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest. It takes its name from the city of Astana in Kazakhstan where the majority of its meetings are held.

At around 17:40 on 31/8/17 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 19:00 on 31/8/17 (UK date) to add;

At its first meeting held in Moscow, Russia on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16) the Astana Process drew up a ceasefire agreement which has gone on to be known as the Astana Ceasefire.

The Astana Ceasefire has always been clear that it does not apply to ISIL nor does it apply to Al Qaeda whatever name they happen to be using. At the insistence of Erdogan the Astana Ceasefire also has never applied to the SDF.

The question of whether the Astana Ceasefire applies to the Army of Conquest coalition has always been a more complicated one. With the coalition being led by Al Qaeda does it mean that the Astana Ceasefire also doesn't apply to the other groups within the coalition?

At the second round of meetings in the Astana Process held on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17) attempts were made to resolve this question. An Astana Ceasefire Mechanism was established to decide on a case-by-case basis while all parties pledged to separate "armed opposition groups" from ISIL and Al Qaeda.

At the fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17) agreement was reached to create four zones within Syria dubbed; "The Astana Zones." These are zones where ISIL are not considered to be active and the Astana Ceasefire would apply to all groups. Including Al Qaeda.

The three of the four Astana Zones are; An area around Homs Province, An area around the Syrian capital Damascus and An area along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including parts of Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

The fourth Astana Zone is an area of Idlib Province directly beneath the SDF's Afrin Canton where Al Qaeda are extremely active. This has been designated; "The Sudetenland" due to Erdogan's desire to annex it as part of his new Ottoman Empire rather like Adolf Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938.

Since May the four Astana Zones have been slowly going into effect.

The first zone to be established was the areas of Deraa and Quneitra Provinces along Syria's borders with Israel and Jordan. Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in July 2017 US President Trump announced the two nations had agreed to establish the zone. In reality it had gone into effect eight days previously on July 10th (10/7/17).

Following the establishment of the southern zone the Astana Parties next set about establishing the Damascus zone. This really applies to the Ghouta suburb on the eastern outskirts of Damascus.

There efforts have been hampered by a conflict between the Army of Islam element of the Army of Conquest who support the ceasefire and the al-Rahman Legion/Faylaq al-Rahman FSA fragment who oppose it. With the Army of Conquest being unable to decide amongst themselves whether they support the ceasefire the Syrians have continued operations against them.

However on August 18th (18/8/17) the al-Rahman Legion did agree to the ceasefire and the Damascus zone went into effect.

While the Army of Conquest has been deciding the Damascus zone amongst itself the Astana Parties have been pressing ahead with establishing the Homs zone. Sometimes referred to as the; "Rastan Pocket" this is a pocket of territory between the cities of Homs and Hama centred around the town of Rastan.

The Homs zone went into effect on August 3rd (3/8/17). However amid Syrian shelling and an offensive by the Al Qaeda faction of the Army of Conquest on August 29th (29/8/17) there are signs that it is beginning to break down.

As if often the case in diplomacy the Astana Parties have each agreed to the creation of these zones for their own - often very different - reasons.

The southern zone along the borders of Israel and Jordan has probably been the most easy for them to agree on. Within that area the Lebanese group Hezbollah have been fighting the Army of Conquest alongside Syrian forces.

Hezbollah and Israel are sworn enemies of each other. The fighting in the southern zone has periodically caused artillery and rocket fire to stray into Israel. This has prompted Israel to conduct airstrikes against Hezbollah in retaliation.

The last thing anybody wants is for Israel to act unilaterally within what is an already extremely crowded and complex battle space. Therefore all parties have been happy for a ceasefire to take effect in that area in order to remove the threat of further Israeli involvement in the conflict.

Erdogan on the other hand only seems to have signed Turkey up to the Astana Zones in the hope it will allow him to annex the Sudetenland under the pre-text of securing the Idlib zone.

Meanwhile the Syrians, Russians and Iranians have signed up to allow them to divert resources from fighting the Army of Conquest to fighting ISIL. This is something they have been very successful at advancing on ISIL in two main directions.

In the south of Syria they have been advancing east from Damascus to the border with Iraq. By June 9th (9/6/17) they succeeded in reaching the Iraqi border at al-Tanf. This is located around 280km (170 miles) east of Damascus and 160km (95 miles) north-west of the Iraqi town of Rutba.

Al-Tanf had long been used by British, Jordanian and US Special Operations Forces (SOF's) to train another faction in the conflict known as the Southern Front. This is primarily made up of fragments of the FSA that joined neither the Army of Conquest or the SDF. The Syrians arrival at al-Tanf forced that training mission to be abandoned.

From al-Tanf the Syrians have advanced towards Palmyra around 180km (110 miles) to the north-west almost in the exact centre of Syria. Palmyra was of course liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in March 2017.

Having linked up with forces from al-Tanf the Syrians are now advancing from Palmyra to Deir-ez-Zour around 180km (110 miles) north-east. Although it is partially occupied by ISIL the Syrians have maintained control of at least part of Deir-ez-Zour throughout the conflict.

At around 20:45 on 31/8/17 (UK date) I am sadly going to have to pick this up tomorrow.