Operation Featherweight: Month 38, Week 1, Day 6.

On November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) launched an operation to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The SDF is a coalition of Kurdish, Assyrian/Syriac, Turkmen and Arab forces. Both members of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribal forces indigenous to northern Syria. Located on the Euphrates River Raqqa has long functioned as ISIL's de facto capital city.

The first stage of the operation saw the SDF advance on Raqqa in three directions; North, West and East. This first stage was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at al-Karamah - roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

On March 21st (21/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam. The Tabqa Dam creates Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River and sits roughly 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.The SDF had reached Lake Assad on January 20th (20/1/17).

On May 11th (11/3/17) both the town of Tabqa and Tabqa Dam were liberated by the SDF.

On June 6th (6/6/17) the operation to liberate Raqqa itself was begun. This saw the SDF enter the city on three axis'; North, West and East. At the same time the SDF launched a west-to-east sweep on the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to cut Raqqa off from the rest of Syria.

The northern axis task was to liberate the former Syrian military - Division 17 - base to the north of the city. This task was completed on or around August 1st (1/8/17). Since then the northern axis has maintained a holding pattern.

The southern sweep succeeded in cutting Raqqa off from the rest of Syria on June 29th (29/6/17).

On July 7th (7/7/17) it liberated the village Ukayrishah some 5km (9 miles) south-east of Raqqa. As of July 24th (24/7/17) this southern sweep had advanced a further 10km (6 miles) south-east taking up positions roughly 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

However at the same time the Syrians have been advancing from the city of Palmyra on the city of Deir-ez-Zour around 130km (80 miles) south-east of Raqqa. On July 30th (30/7/17) the Syrians liberated the village of Dalhah.

Dalhah sits directly in front of the SDF's advance around 10km (6 miles) south-east of Ukayrishah. As a result the SDF have been unable to advance further south-east without getting themselves drawn into a second battle against a second enemy.

Within Raqqa itself the western axis entered the city via the Jazra suburb on June 6th (6/6/17).  By July 3rd (3/7/17) the western axis had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.

The eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) they had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.

On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates. Having liberated the Yarmouk district on July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

On Thursday August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This limits ISIL to just 16 districts in the north and centre of the city.

Alongside fighting in the Hisham Abdulmalik district the eastern axis also entered the Old City district of Raqqa on July 6th (6/7/17). This sits directly west of the al-Sinaa and Bitani district and directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

The Old City district is made up of four main neighbourhoods. Running clockwise from the north-east these are; Madi, Rafiqa, Rashid and Mansur. On August 13th (13/8/17) the SDF liberated the Madi and Rafiqa neighbourhoods with the westerly Rashid and Mansur neighbourhoods remaining under ISIL control.

Directly to the west of the Old City district you have what is believed to be ISIL's main headquarters within Raqqa.

This stretches across several districts including al-Baytra, Hanah and the Security Box. It is perhaps better defined by landmarks such as Harun al-Rashid Gardens, April 7th Park, the National Hospital and the football stadium.

Rather admirably on Google Maps someone has registered the business; "ISIS Capital" in this area just north of April 7th Park. The reviews are a blast.

On June 28th (28/6/17) the western axis entered the an-Nadah district. This sits directly south of the al-Bayrd district and directly east of the Hattin district.

Alongside liberating the Shahada district they have continued to advance in the Nadah district. This includes liberating the Karim district directly to the south on August 6th (6/8/17).

Although not particularly wide the an-Nadah district is quite long. It stretches almost from the western outskirts of Raqqa down to the Hanah district and the National Hospital.

As the SDF have begun to approach ISIL's believed headquarters from both the east and west they appear to have reached another level of defences. This means that the intensity of the fighting has increased dramatically and progress has slowed.

Between the liberation of the Madi and Rafiqa neighbourhoods of the Old City district on August 13th (13/8/17) and Tuesday (22/8/17) the SDF failed to liberate a single district.

This slowdown in the SDF's progress has triggered a significant increase in the number of airstrikes by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Forces: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR).

In the week between August 14th (14/8/17) and August 20th (20/8/17) CJTFOIR carried out in excess of 250 airstrikes in Raqqa alone. To put that in some sort of perspective I think it exceeds the number of airstrikes conducted in all of Iraq in the first two months of operations under former US President Barack Obama.

These strikes seem to be tactically legitimate destroying ISIL fighting units, fighting positions and defensive structures to allow the SDF to advance. However the increase in the number of strikes has raised concerns about both the risk to civilians trapped within Raqqa and of damage to Raqqa's infrastructure. 

Despite the slowdown in progress what has not happened is that the SDF has not see an increase in its casualty rate. During that 9 day period between August 13th (13/8/17) and August 22nd (22/8/17) 14 SDF fighters were killed. That is consistent with what you would expect from this type of operation and the casualties the SDF have sustained throughout this battle.

It certainly pales into near insignificance compared with the damage the SDF are doing to ISIL. Although I don't have exact figures ISIL have seen around 360 of their fighters killed during the same period. This includes in excess of 70 being killed in a single exchange with the SDF.

Therefore there seems to be no indication that the SDF's advance has been halted let alone turned back by ISIL. They continue to make progress on the neighbourhood level. Particularly in the Darayeh district which sits north of Shahada and south of Karim.

On Tuesday (22/8/17) the SDF's eastern axis succeeded in liberating the Rashid neighbourhood of the Old City district. That just leaves the Mansur neighbourhood in the north-west to be liberated before the Old City district is completely liberated. That will put the SDF within a city block of Harun al-Rashid Gardens.

While I'm here I should take the opportunity to comment on something that has threatened to become something of an elephant in the room at the diplomatic level.

The British government funded Channel 4 TV network has been a drama it has produced on the ISIL called; "The State." Using fictionalised characters it attempts to tell the story of British volunteers for ISIL.

So for example there is "Ushna" character. She is an composite of various British schoolgirls such as Kadiza Sultana, Amira Abase and Shamima Begum who've run away to join ISIL.

Then there is "Shakira" who travels with her young son. She is a reference to Kadijah Dare whose son Isa Dare was used in an ISIL execution video in February 2016. They've made her a doctor as a device to pose some rather needless questions about ISIL's attitudes towards women's rights.

There are also numerous male fighters. These include British Pakistanis and Black British Muslims alongside White converts from a range of nations including Britain, the Netherlands and Germany.

The State was broadcast in four, one hour episodes daily between August 20th (20/8/17) and August 23rd (23/8/17). However I've only made it through the first two episodes.

With Channel 4 craving attention above all else they have tried to generate a controversy over whether the show humanises ISIL's foreign fighters at exactly the time we are trying to prevent them from travelling to commit atrocities in the west.

I would say that it is certainly guilty of that and seems to be an attempt at terrorist propaganda. However not on the scale of Channel 4 News who have a habit of airing ISIL propaganda videos as fact.

One particularly troubling scene shows a presumably CJTFOIR airstrike against a hospital in Raqqa. Seeming to last for hours this targets the hospital's maternity ward producing graphic scenes of babies being slaughtered in their cribs.

This has never happened. Particularly not during 2015 when the scene is set. That was a period in which Turkey prevented CJTFOIR striking ISIL targets in and around Raqqa.

Amongst the male fighter there is White convert to Islam who previous served with the British Army. With him seeming never to discuss his faith it would be easy to confuse him with any number of people who've joined the SDF's International Brigades.

This seems to be an attempt to draw an equivalency between foreign ISIL volunteers and the SDF's International Brigades. This has long been a strategy of propaganda by both ISIL themselves and the Muslim Brotherhood.

While the majority of ISIL fighters are foreign the SDF's International Brigades are tiny - far below that is normally considered Brigade strength. Those who have joined the SDF have done so because they possess specialist skills such as combat experience. Beyond stopping ISIL they have no unifying ideology.

As at 17:30 on 24/8/17 (UK date) we are now just talking about bad TV I will pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 18:50 on 24/8/17 (UK date) to add;

Although it seems very much like a piece of ISIL propaganda The State probably best serves as a talking point about western liberals current fetish for Muslims. It's this that drives them to inadvertently believe in and produce Islamist propaganda.

The show seems as if someone has told Channel 4 a little bit about the basics of Islam and a few basic words of Arabic. They've got so over excited by this exotic novelty they have to blurt it out to everyone like some sort of tedious student returning from their gap year.

A lot of the dialogue is in Arabic and touches on Islamic religious concepts like martyrs being Green Birds in Jinnah (Heaven). Whenever this happens a little graphic will pop up on screen giving the Arabic term and its English translation.

It must be said though that the phrase; "The Kurds killed his brother in Kobane"  is funny to me in any language.

My main takeaway from The State though is that for a show billed as being on a cinematic scale how cheap and tacky it is.

It features Jessica Gunning who is a reasonably well known supporting actress on British TV.

Gunning plays a character called "Umm Walid" who is a sort of house mother or Aunty at a house for unmarried women who've newly arrived in Syria. It is her job to teach them how to behave as ISIL brides. Gunning plays the role with a bizarre not quite American, not quite Canadian north-American accent that she frequently gives up on mid-sentence.

Through its portrayal of the ISIL maidens The State has clearly been heavily influenced by the US TV Show; "The Handmaids Tale." Through things like female genital mutilation and hangings from cranes that touches on Islams attitudes to women's rights.

It is as if The State has picked up that idea from the Handmaid's Tale and tried to run with it. Before falling over and grazing its knee.

For all its faults The State is rather useful for orientating your way around the current battle for Raqqa.

For their education Umm Walid gathers Ushna, Shakira and other women in a school in Raqqa. This is obviously fictional. However it seems heavily inspired by the Rasheed Secondary school. The SDF are currently around 500 metres/yards west of that.

Many of the scenes are set around a public square in Raqqa. These include bizarrely the beheading of an Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga. That square is based on Harun al-Rashid Gardens. The SDF are currently around 250 metres/yards west of that.

19:20 on 24/8/17 (UK date).