Monday, 14 August 2017

Operation Featherweight: Month 37, Week 4, Day 5.

On November 6th 2016 (6/11/16) the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD) coalition launched an operation to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

The SDF is a coalition of Kurdish, Assyrian/Syriac, Turkmen and Arab forces. Both members of the now defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Arab tribal forces indigenous to northern Syria. Located on the Euphrates River Raqqa has long functioned as ISIL's de facto capital city.

The first stage of the operation saw the SDF advance on Raqqa in three directions; North, West and East. This first stage was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17) with the SDF taking up positions at al-Karamah - roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

On March 21st (21/3/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate the town of Tabqa and the adjoining Tabqa Dam. The Tabqa Dam creates Lake Assad out of the Euphrates River and sits roughly 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa.The SDF had reached Lake Assad on January 20th (20/1/17).

On May 11th (11/3/17) both the town of Tabqa and Tabqa Dam were liberated by the SDF.

On June 6th (6/6/17) the operation to liberate Raqqa itself was begun. This saw the SDF enter the city on three axis'; North, West and East. At the same time the SDF launched a west-to-east sweep on the southern bank of the Euphrates in order to cut Raqqa off from the rest of Syria.

The eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) they had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.

The western axis began by entering the Jazra suburb on June 6th (6/6/17). By July 3rd (3/7/17) the western axis had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.

On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates. Having liberated the Yarmouk district on July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis entered the Shahada district. This also sits at the very south of Raqqa directly adjacent to the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

On August 2nd (2/8/17) the western and eastern axis' linked up at the H6 Highway which forms the boundary between the Shahada and Hisham Abdulmalik district. This created a continuous SDF line dividing both districts south towards the Euphrates and north to the rest of the city.

Between August 5th (5/8/17) and August 8th (8/8/17) the SDF everything south and north of that dividing line in both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts.

On Thursday August 10th (10/8/17) the SDF were able to declare both the Hisham Abdulmalik and Shahada districts fully liberated. This limits ISIL to just 16 districts in the north and centre of the city.

Alongside fighting in the Hisham Abdulmalik district the eastern axis also entered the Old City district of Raqqa on July 6th (6/7/17). This sits directly west of the al-Sinaa and Bitani district and directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

Yesterday (13/8/17) the SDF liberated the Mahdi and Rafiqa neighbourhoods. Alongside the Rashid and Mansur neighbourhoods these are two of the four main neighbourhoods within the Old City district. The SDF have also begun to enter the Rashid and Mansur neighbourhoods.

On August 7th (7/8/17) the eastern axis also entered the Rameelah district. This sits directly north of the Bitani district and north-east of the Rawdah district. Sitting directly north of the Old City district the SDF have been battling the liberate the Rawdah district since entering it following the liberation of Bitani district of June 28th (28/6/17).

Aside from battling to liberate the Shahada district the western axis have continued to make progress on the north-west of the city. On August 8th (8/8/17) they liberated the Karim district. They have also continued to increase their control of the al-Nadah district which sits to the north of the Karim district and stretches deep into the centre of the city.

The battle for Raqqa is taking place at southern edge of an area under SDF control designated; "Shangri-La."

Shangri-La stretches from the Syria/Iraq border to the east to broadly speaking the Euphrates River in the west. Although there are areas of Syrian control south of the city of Hasakah generally speaking the southern boundary of Shangri-La is the Euphrates River basin where ISIL continue to hold the cities of Mayadin and Deir-ez-Zour.

The SDF also control a smaller area in the north-west of Syria roughly 3,000kmsq (1,800milesq) in size. This is centred around the city of Afrin and has been designated; "The Afrin Canton."

Between Shangri-La and the Afrin Canton you have a roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area designated; "Garvaghy Road."

On August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to invade Garvaghy Road. The purpose was to prevent the SDF linking Shangri-La to Afrin Canton because in doing so they would cut a vital ISIL supply route running to and from Turkey.

Although the western boundary of Shangri-La is generally considered to be the Euphrates River the SDF do control a small area west of the river up to and including the town of Manbij. This sits roughly 25km (15 miles) south-west of the Tishrin Dam across the Euphrates. It was fully liberated on August 27th 2016 (27/8/16).

Erdogan's invasion of Garvaghy Road initially focused on the town of Jarablus. This sits around 35km (20 miles) north of Manbij right on the Syria/Turkey border. Having captured Jarablus Erdogan then wanted his forces to move south to capture Manbij from the SDF. However he was deflected into first capturing other towns with Garvaghy Road such a Azaz, Marea, Dabiq, al-Rai and finally al-Bab.

Having captured al-Bab Erdogan declared on February 28th 2017 (28/2/17) that his forces would advance to capture Manbij from the SDF. On March 1st (1/3/17) Erdogan sent the Turkish forces to unleash a barrage of airstrikes against SDF positions at Manbij including US, British and French Special Operations Forces (SOF's) that were embedded with the SDF there.

This nearly week long crisis was only brought to an end when Russia stepped. They brokered an agreement that would see Syrian forces take up positions at the town of Armia roughly midway between al-Bab and Manbij. Those Syrian forces would act as a buffer between the SDF and Turkish forces.

As the SDF have made significant progress against ISIL in Raqqa Erdogan has become increasingly aggressive.

On June 22nd (22/6/17) Erdogan deployed more Turkish forces both to the border and within Garvaghy Road. This build up of forces is in preparation for an operation dubbed; "Euphrates Sword" which is intended to invade and capture the Afrin Canton from the SDF. There is much speculation that this operation will be launched on the anniversary of Erdogan's invasion of Garvaghy Road dubbed; "Euphrates Shield" in and around August 24th 2017 (24/8/17).

On June 30th (30/6/17) Turkish forces both regular and irregular have been shelling Afrin Canton from both within Turkey and Garvaghy Road. This shelling has been near continuous ever since. It has primarily targeted civilian villages and refugee camps. It has also triggered numerous wildfires intended to force civilians from the area.

On August 6th (6/8/17) through to August 8th (8/8/17) Erdogan's forces conducted attacks against Syrian forces at Armia. This seems to have been an attempt to break through the Russian established buffer-zone to allow Erdogan's forces to attack the SDF at Manbij.

On August 10th (10/8/17) Erdogan's forces used anti-Tank weapons specifically to attack a US SOF vehicle at Tal Abyad. This sits within Shangri-La around 55km (30 miles) east of the city of Kobane right on the border with Turkey. The vehicle was destroyed but fortunately no US troops were killed or wounded.

To the south of Afrin Canton you have an area centred around the city of Idlib that has been designated; "The Sudetenland" in reference to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Sudetenland is under the control of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The Army of Conquest is an Sunni Islamist organisation which is allied with ISIL.

One of the largest factions with the Army of Conquest is the Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra (ANF). They  are the Syrian wing of The Base/Al Qaeda (AQ). In an effort to disguise their links to Al Qaeda they have recently taken to referring to themselves as the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayy'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Nobody recognises the name change

The second largest faction within the Army of Conquest is the Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). They are very closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and through the Brotherhood to Qatar and Turkey.

Another significant faction within the Army of Conquest is the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB). This is formed of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) known as the Grey Wolves. The UTA are particularly active within Garvaghy Road alongside the regular Turkish military.

Other factions within the Army of Conquest include the small but extremely nasty Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI) and Islamist fragments of the now defunct FSA.

On December 12th 2016 (12/12/16) the Syrian city of Aleppo was finally and fully liberated by the Syrians from the Army of Conquest. This forced the Army of Conquest to seek refuge in and around Idlib City leading to the creation of the Sudetenland as a strategically significant area.

The liberation of Aleppo City also triggered the establishment of the Astana Process on Syria. This sees Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria meet periodically to discuss the conflict.

At the fifth round of meetings in the Astana Process on May 3rd (3/5/17) and May 5th (5/5/17) agreement was reached to create four zones within Syria dubbed; "The Astana Zones." These include the Sudetenland, an area around Homs Province, and area around the Syrian capital Damascus and an area along Syria's borders with Jordan and Israel including parts of Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

The exact function of these zones and even their names is still to be determined by the Astana Process. However Erdogan is extremely keen to have the Sudetenland designated as a Safe-Haven under the terms of international law. This will protect Army of Conquest fighters located there and allow Erdogan to deploy Turkish troops to occupy and formally annex the Sudetenland.

Prior to the creation of the Astana Zones the Astana pledged to; "fight jointly against ISIL/DAESH and Al-Nusra and to separate from them armed opposition groups." This pledge was made at the second round of meetings in the Astana Process on January 23rd (23/1/17) and January 24th (24/1/17).

To this end in early July Ahrar al-Sham launched attacks against Al Nusra with the supposed intention of expelling them from the Sudetenland. The problem is that Ahrar al-Sham lost this battle with themselves being expelled from the Sudetenland on July 23rd (23/7/17). This left Al Qaeda in complete control of the Sudetenland.

On August 11th (11/8/17) Erdogan announced that he would be closing the Bab al-Hawa border crossing to end cross border trade with Al Qaeda. However he pledged to allow "humanitarian aid" through the crossing into the Sudetenland.

One of the big recent political scandals in Turkey began in January 2014 when the Turkish border Gendarmerie stopped trucks loaded with humanitarian aid before they could cross into Syria over the Bab al-Hawa crossing.

On inspecting the trucks the Gendarmes found the "humanitarian aid" to be heavy weapons intended to be delivered to Al Qaeda by the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT). This was repeated two weeks later.

Erdogan's response was to imprison all the Gendarmes and local prosecutors involved in stopping the weapons shipments along with any journalists who reported on them on charges of treason. 

The recent shoving match between Al Qaeda and Ahrar al-Sham is very similar to events that occurred within Garvaghy Road both prior to Erdogan's first attempt to invade in December 2016 and his eventual invasion in August 2016.

There particularly the UTA faction of the Army of Conquest would cycle control of various towns such as Marea between themselves and ISIL dependent on what combination of forces in control of an area would suit Erdogan's agenda best.  

The clearest example occurred in March 2016 at the town of al-Rai. This sits directly in the centre of Garvaghy Road right on the border with Turkey and is sometimes referred to as Cobanbey which sits on the Turkish side.

The Army of Conquest advanced from positions close to Marea and Azaz capturing al-Rai on April 8th 2016 (8/4/17) from ISIL. However they then promptly handed all the territory they had gained back to ISIL.

Erdogan then used the threat of ISIL on Turkey's border as a pretext to invade Garvaghy Road preventing the SDF from cutting ISIL's supply lines with Turkey.

At around 17:05 on 14/8/17 (UK date) I'll pick this up after dinner.

Edited at around 18:40 on 14/8/17 (UK date) to add;

Amongst the ranks of the SDF there is an International Brigade of foreign volunteers. Although on absolutely nowhere near the same scale this has been inspired by the International Brigades who fought on the Republican, anti-Fascist side during the 1936-1939 Spanish Civil War.

This brings me on to the well publicised events of Saturday (12/8/17) the city of Charlottesville in the US state of Virginia.

In response to those events there have been deafening calls for US President Trump to single out and condemn the specific groups involved. However the people making those calls don't seem to know the groups involved themselves. Instead they describe them using the blanket term; "White Supremacist."

Events certainly were centred amongst longstanding and hardcore White Supremacist groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) and neo-Nazi groups such as the Aryan Nation.

However my concern is that these hardcore groups may well have attracted people with more mainstream beliefs who have mistakenly thought these extremists will provide them with protection against the Democrat Party's racially charged war against democracy and the rule of law.

After all having invited designated hate groups such as the New Black Panther Party (NBPP) and the astoundingly un-Islamic Nation of Islam (NoI) to the city to defy a Court ruling protecting civil rights Charlottesville's Democrat Mayor Mike Signer certainly won't.

There was one particularly prominent but as yet unidentified group. They appeared in much of the TV footage always being at the front of the clashes seeming to be the main instigators or provocateurs of the violence.

This group carried flags and homemade shields featuring the logo of a black Saint Andrews cross against a white background or a white St Andrews cross within a black circle.

Those symbols are the insignia of the air forces of the Fascist, Nationalist forces during the Spanish Civil War. They were largely supplied by Hitler's Nazi Germany through a special division of the Nazi military known as the Condor Legion.

As I discussed in my post on the topic yesterday former US President Barack Obama used his 8 year term to divide US citizens into different tribes based on race, religion, gender and sexuality.

Part of Obama's efforts to divide on race included attempts to claim that Hispanics were not members of the Caucasian or White race. This is utterly ridiculous. Spain's alliance with Nazi Germany and its own three year civil war over the concept of Hispanic White Supremacy really serves to underline just how ridiculous.

Obama also tried to claim that Native American Indians are also not part of the Caucasian or White race. This is equally ridiculous because despite their name Native Americans are extremely Caucasian having migrated to the continental US from the Caucus region of Russia.

These claims led to the Obama administration and the US Democrats being widely and loudly mocked during the 2016 Summer Olympics in Brazil.

This past weekend has seen the World Athletic Championships reach their climax in London, UK. The British hosts have certainly been trying to turn this into the 2017 Summer Olympics. Prompting Usain Bolt to do a very good impression of someone falling flat on their face.

Obama's attempts to divide America on race also included the formation of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) group. This is the latest incarnation of hate groups like the NBPP and the NoI. As a Black Supremacist group Black Lives Matter is of course extremely unwelcoming to non-Black members.

As a result the Democrats have tried to mobilise their White supporters who are excluded from BLM in a group using the name Anti-Fascist Action (ANTIFA). The Democrats version of Antifa really made their debut on April 15th 2017 (15/4/17) attacking Trump supporters in Berkeley, California.

The tactics used in Charlottesville of shields, masks, helmets and body armour are the tactics used by Antifa in Berkeley which now seem to have been adopted by all sides.

As an Anarchist group the traditional Antifa are not particularly well organised with a patchy history. However they have their ideological roots in the Spanish Civil War. Their main slogan; "No Parasan (They Shall Not Pass)" was the battle cry used by Republicans during the long siege of Madrid.

The irony is that the version of Antifa we are currently seeing in the US are acting in support of Obama's Democrat Party. They are certainly no friends of the SDF's International Brigade.

The reason why the SDF have an International Brigade is the under Obama the US refused to provide them with any military support in their fight against ISIL. This forced them to recruit ex-members of western military's to provide them with training and experience as private citizens.

Due to his extensive facial tattoos one of the most high profile members of the SDF's International Brigade is a guy called Kevin Howard from San Francisco, California. He is a former member of the US Marine Corp. Already during the battle for Raqqa another US citizens has given his life in the service of the SDF's International Brigades. Robert Grodt was a US Army veteran.

It was the bravery and sacrifice of these Americans and others while their President did nothing that finally shamed Obama into giving the SDF extremely limited support. However Obama still refused to support the SDF fully instead trying to build a rival power structure within the group in the hope it would defect and ally itself with the Army of Conquest and ISIL.

Obama certainly did not oppose Erdogan's invasion of Garvaghy Road and if he had remained in power it is likely Obama would fully support Erdogan's plans to invade Afrin Canton and annex the Sudetenland. Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia of course happened in 1938. During the Spanish Civil War.

With his frequent airstrikes against the SDF it is often said that Erdogan is acting as ISIL's airforce. Through their support that would make Obama and his Democrats ISIL's Condor Legion.

So I find it extremely hard to believe that anyone with an understanding of the history and values of the Republican International Brigades and Antifa would demean themselves by supporting the US Democrats.

Any serious member of Antifa would already be well aware of Buenaventura Durruti. This Catalan Anarchist was probably the Republicans most successful military commander during the Spanish Civil War. 

Although Durruti's death in 1936 is shrouded in mystery it's widely accepted that he was assassinated by Communist elements of the Republican forces who viewed his popularity and success as a threat to their absolute control. Those Communist elements obsession with absolute control at the expense of actually fighting the Nationalists is one of the main reasons the Republicans lost the war.

Franco's Nationalist air force's most infamous engagement was the April 1937 bombing of the Basque city of Guernica. Rather than having any particular military value this atrocity was really an opportunity for Hitler to test out the fancy new weapons he'd developed. Chief amongst these was the Junkers Ju 87 "Stuka" dive bomber.

Amid the insignia of the Nationalist airforce the way that the grey Dodge Challenger dove down a hill into pedestrians in Charlottesville certainly had an air of a Stuka dive bomber about it.

As a result the imagery of the weekend's events seemed to serve as a coded message - "Dog Whistle" is apparently the fashionable term - to Erdogan from the US branch of the Muslim Brotherhood aka The Democrat Party. The message was to go ahead with his invasion plans because they would keep President Trump pinned down with this crap.

By Sunday (13/8/17) Erdogan had certainly been emboldened.

In the evening the Turkish military artillery Erdogan had stationed on the Turkish side of the border in perpetration for the Euphrates Sword operation significantly intensified its shelling of Afrin Canton. This included shelling the of the Rubar camp for Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP's)/Refugee Camp.

At around the same time it was claimed that a Turkish police officer was stabbed and killed by an ISIL member he was arresting. This allows Erdogan to falsely claim that Turkey is an enemy of ISIL and that he must take action to protect Turks from ISIL.

Finally there was the gun attack on the Aziz Istanbul Turkish restaurant in Ouagadougou - the capital of Burkina Faso. Lasting for more than eight hours this attack left 18 people dead and injured many others.

The attack has been blamed on Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). This seems a reasonable assumption. Along with what has become the ISIL affiliate Boko Haram centred in Nigeria AQIM established what they called an Islamist Caliphate in northern Mali in 2012.

The victims of the attack include citizens of at least nine nations. However the death of a single Turk along with the very obvious references to Turkey will allow Erdogan to falsely claim that he is an enemy rather than an enemy of Al Qaeda.

It will also allow Erdogan to claim that he must take action to protect Turks by invading Afrin Canton and annexing the Sudetenland.

20:25 on 14/8/17 (UK date).





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