Operation Featherweight: Month 37, Week 2, Day 6.

On July 9th 2017 (9/7/17) the Iraqi city of Mosul was liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

As part of that operation the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) militias also liberated almost the entire area between Mosul and Iraq's border with Syria.

The liberation of Mosul does not mean the complete end of ISIL within Iraq. They still maintain control over small areas of the country. Most notably the town of Tal Afar to the west of Mosul and the Hawija Triangle area to the south-east of Mosul.

However Mosul was ISIL's de facto capital within Iraq. Its liberation marked ISIL losing control of the last major population centre in the country. As a result much of the focus for defeating the group has now shifted from Iraq to Syria.

Directly across the Iraq/Syria border to the west of Mosul you have the area designated; "Shangri-La." This stretches from the border with Iraq in the east to the Euphrates River to the west. The southern boundary of Shangri-La is still very much in dispute and subject to change. However it currently encompasses an area of around 17,000kmq (10,200milesq).

Shangri-La is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The SDF is a coalition made up of the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG/YPJ). Arab and Turkmen fragments of what used to be referred to as the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The Assyrian or Syriac Christian Military Council (MFS). Local Arab tribal forces who are indigenous to the area. International Brigades made up of foreign volunteers.

The SDF is backed by the US-led coalition - Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR). Alongside air support CJTFOIR has embedded within the SDF Special Operations Forces (SOF's) from the US, the UK and France. The US also deployed conventional Marine and Army units on the ground in Syria to support the SDF.

The SDF also control an area in the north-west of Syria along the border with Turkey. Centred around the city of Afrin this has been designated; "Afrin Canton." With it's eastern boundary roughly being the town of Azaz and its southern boundary roughly the town Ad Dana in the south Afrin Canton encompasses an area of roughly 3,000kmsq (1,800milesq).

In order to defeat ISIL then the obvious thing would be for the SDF to link Shangri-La to Afrin Canton giving them a continuous area of control along Syria's border with Iraq.

This would allow the SDF to cut the supply lines between ISIL and their main backer Turkey. It would also establish a vast area that could be designated as a Safe-Haven used to protect civilian Internally Displaced People (IDP's) before they are forced to become refugees.

This is exactly what the SDF set about doing.

On December 30th 2015 (30/12/15) the SDF liberated the Tishrin Dam. This gave them a crossing over the Euphrates. On August 27th 2016 (27/8/16) the SDF liberated the town of Manbij. This sits around 25km (15 miles) south-west of the Euphrates allowing the SDF to establish a foothold west of the River.

As ISIL's main backer Turkey was obviously not pleased at the prospect of the SDF cutting their main supply route with the group.

So on August 24th 2016 (24/8/16) Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent regular Turkish forces to illegally invade northern Syria. This operation was codenamed; "Euphrates Shield."

Acting in support of the United Turkmen Army (UTA) who are an irregular branch of the Turkish military who have long acted alongside ISIL inside Syria Erdogan's forces mission was to occupy the area between Shangri-La and Afrin Canton to prevent the SDF from linking the two areas. This roughly 100km (60 mile) wide area has been designated; "Garvaghy Road."

Erdogan's invasion in support of ISIL should never have been permitted by CJTFOIR who operate under the auspices of the United Nations (UN). However under former US President Barack Obama the operation was permitted. On the condition that all of Erdogan's forces - both regular and irregular - be withdraw from Garvaghy Road by September 7th 2016 (7/9/16).

September 7th came and went without Erdogan's forces making their withdrawal. However rather than forcing Erdogan to honour his agreement former President Obama instead caved in further to Erdogan's demands. This involved putting in motion a plan to destroy the SDF from within to allow Erdogan's forces to expand into Shangri-La and Afrin Canton.

The first element of Obama's plan to destroy the SDF was to order the establishment of a rival, Arab-only command structure within the SDF. This Syrian Arab Council (SAC) as it was known was then armed by the US. The hope being that it would move to overthrow the non-Arab elements of the SDF and then defect to join Erdogan's forces.

The second element of Obama's plan was to recruit and train a rival Syrian Kurdish force in Iraq. The hope being the Roj Peshmerga as they're known would enter Syria and work with the SAC to start a civil war within the SDF breaking the coalition apart.

The final element of Obama's plan was to send the SDF in battle to liberate the city of Raqqa within the Euphrates River basin which at the time served as ISIL's de facto capital within Syria and overall capital.

With Obama refusing to allow CJTFOIR to arm or support all but the SAC element of the SDF at the time the SDF as a small guerrilla force were in no way equipped to win such a battle. The hope being that once they'd been defeated Erdogan's forces would be able to seize Shangri-La from them.

The operation to liberate Mosul of course began on October 17th 2016 (17/10/16). The main element of Obama's plan for the operation was to leave the entire western side of Mosul undefended in order to allow ISIL fighters to withdraw to Raqqa.

Shortly after the Mosul operation had begun the US' NATO allies reminded Obama that with Erdogan's forces continuing to occupy Garvaghy Road allowing ISIL fighters to flee from Mosul to Raqqa also meant they could flee to Turkey and from Turkey to the rest of the World.

This pressure forced Obama to bring forward the SDF's assault on Raqqa. Codenamed; "Wrath of Euphrates" this began on November 6th 2016 (6/11/16).

At the time Obama launched this operation the SDF were actually located quite far away from Raqqa. Therefore the first stage of the operation was for the SDF to advance on Raqqa. This was conducted in three phases;

The first phase saw the SDF advance south to take up positions roughly 25km (15 miles) north of Raqqa. This phase was completed on November 25th 2016 (25/11/16).

The second phase saw the SDF sweep along the eastern banks of the Euphrates to take up positions at Tabqa - roughly 40km (25 miles) west of Raqqa. This phase was completed on January 20th 2017 (20/1/17).

The third phase saw the SDF advance to take up positions around al-Karamah which is roughly 30km (20 miles) south-east of Raqqa. This phase was completed on March 19th 2017 (19/3/17).

Immediately after the second phase had been completed Donald Trump replaced Barack Obama as US President on January 20th (20/1/17). This brought about a dramatic change in the US' attitude to the SDF.

The SAC was dismantled and calls for the Roj Peshmerga to enter Syria ceased. CJTFOIR began supplying and arming all elements of the SDF. This included establishing a network of operating bases with Shangri-La equipped with artillery units and gound-attack helicopters including the AH-64 Apache.

Faced with the prospect that a properly supported SDF would not be destroyed in the course of the Raqqa operation Erdogan became increasingly aggressive.

On February 28th (28/2/17) Erdogan declared that his forces would advance from the town of al-Bab within Garvaghy Road to capture Manbij from the SDF.

Perhaps buoyed by opposition to President Trump and despite US SOF's being present at Manbij Erdogan backed up this declaration by beginning Turkish airstrikes on March 1st (1/3/17). This fighting was only brought under control when Russia negotiated the deployment of Syrian troops to create a buffer-zone between Erdogan's forces at al-Bab and SDF forces at Manbij.

Erdogan's attacks on the SDF in Syria were accompanied by further aggression in Iraq. On Erdogan's orders Iraqi Kurdish Regional President Masoud Barzani sent the Roj Peshmerga to attack SDF affiliated members of the PMF in the Sinjar/Shingal mountains border region between Iraq and Syria. This prompted several days of fighting between groups who were supposed to be working together to liberate Mosul.

In mid-April Erdogan suffered another violent outburst. On April 11th (11/4/17) Turkish forces both regular and irregular and inside and out of Syria began artillery strikes against SDF positions in Afrin Canton. On April 20th (20/4/17) Erdogan expanded this aggression to include Turkish airstikes against Afrin Canton, Shangri-La and Iraq's Kurdish Region.

The most notable strikes in what was nearly three weeks of attacks were the bombing of an Iraqi Peshmerga base in Sinjar/Shingal and the bombing of the SDF command centre at al-Malikiyah/Derik in north-east Syria. Both of these occurred on April 25th (25/4/17) killing 10 and 28 members of anti-ISIL forces respectively.

Despite CJTFOIR singularly failing to get Erdogan's aggression under control the SDF were not deterred by these attacks.

On May 11th (11/5/17) the SDF succeeded in liberating the town of Tabqa from ISIL. This marked the successful completion of an operation that had begun on March 21st (21/3/17). It technically expanded the southern boundary of Shangri-La south of the Euphrates River.

On June 6th (6/6/17) the SDF launched an operation to liberate Raqqa itself.

The nature of the fighting in Raqqa is very different to the nature of the fighting in Mosul.

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) who liberated Mosul are a conventional military force. They are well equipped with highly mobile armoured vehicles such as Humvees and MRAP's along with tanks. They have their own air and artillery support units and further support from CJTFOIR.

Therefore the ISF's main tactic was within Mosul was to overwhelm an area with troops in columns of as many as 35 armoured vehicles at at time. Having advanced into an area they would then soften-up the next area with air and artillery strikes before moving to overwhelm it.

As a lightly armed guerrilla force the SDF simply do not have the equipment to deploy such tactics in Raqqa. Instead they are relying on more guerrilla-style tactics.

This involves them establishing a loose frontline out network of forward fire bases which are often little more then a house. The snipers and riflemen in these forward fire bases then slowly pick off the ISIL fighters in front of them with the help of CJTFOIR artillery and airstrikes including the close air-support provided by the Apaches.

Once ISIL defences in the area ahead of them have been weakened the SDF use what vehicles they have to mount raids to capture and establish further forward fire bases. Thus gradually moving the frontline forward to liberate the city.

This is closer to the tactics that were used by the ISF during the battle for Mosul's Old City district. It is of course much slower and time consuming. However particularly in the early stages of the battle the SDF have been advancing rapidly.

The Raqqa operation is being conducted on three axis; The North, the East and the West. The SDF are also conducting a west-to-east sweep on the southern bank of the Euphrates to cut Raqqa off from the rest of Syria.

The northern axis is focused on the sprawling former Syrian military - Division 17 - base to the north of the city. At some 50kmsq (30 milesq) this Division 17 base is almost half the size of Raqqa itself. Having entered the base on June 6th (6/6/17) the northern axis have secured all of it and appear to now be in some sort of holding pattern.

The eastern axis began by entering the Mashlab district at the most south-easterly tip of Raqqa on June 6th (6/6/17). By June 17th (17/6/17) they had succeeded in liberating the Mashlab, al-Sinaa and Bitani districts. These all sit on the eastern outskirts of Raqqa.

The western axis began by entering the Jazra suburb on June 6th (6/6/17). By July 3rd (3/7/17) the western axis had succeeded in completely liberating the Sabahiya, Romaniyah, al-Qadisiyyah and al-Hattin districts and parts of the an-Nadah and al-Baryd districts. These all sit on the western outskirts of Raqqa.

On July 2nd (2/7/17) the eastern axis entered the Hisham Abdulmalik district at the very south of Raqqa on the banks of the Euphrates. On July 6th (6/7/17) the eastern axis was able to enter the Old City district which sits directly west of the al-Sinaa and Bitani district and directly north of the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

On July 3rd (3/7/17) the western axis entered the Yarmouk district which sits on the northern bank of the Euphrates. By July 17th (17/7/17) the western axis had fully liberated Yarmouk district. This allowed them to enter the Shahada district which sits directly between the Yarmouk district and the Hisham Abdulmalik district.

In breaching the Shahada, Hisham Abdulmalik and Old City districts the SDF appear to have moved from ISIL's outer-ring of defence into what could be one of multiple inner-rings of defence. This means that the fighting has become harder.

This change in the tempo in fighting has served to highlight the pro-ISIL bias that still exists in much of the western media.

In response to the western axis liberating Yarmouk district and entering Shadada district ISIL declared that the SDF had suffered heavy casualties and had been forced to halt the entire Raqqa operation. This was simply not true. However because many western journalists have spent years cultivating friends and sources within ISIL while ignoring the SDF this was widely reported as truth.

Although the SDF are very far from being stopped in their tracks ISIL have increased their resistance. This has resulted in the SDF have to absorb and repel more ISIL counter-attacks. Most notably in the al-Baryd district on July 19th (19/7/17) and in the Shadada district on July 21st (21/7/17). Both of these are on the western axis.

The largest ISIL counter-attack reported so far though occurred on the eastern axis in Hisham Abdulmalik district on July 24th (24/7/17). However this simply resulted in the attack been repelled by the SDF with 35 ISIL fighters being killed.

Despite the increase in ISIL's resistance the SDF have continued to make steady progress.

On July 24th (24/7/17) the western axis reached the Children's Hospital. This sits on the boundary between the Shahada district and the al-Moroor and the oddly named Security Box district which both sit directly north of Shahada district. It means that the western axis is now very deeply advanced into the Shahada district even if it is a narrow corridor.

As of July 27th (27/7/17) the western axis was in disputed control of around 80% the Darayeh district to the north of the Shahada district and disputed control of around 50% of the al-Moroor district directly east of the Darayeh district. They were also in disputed control of roughly 20% of both an-Nahdah and al-Baryd districts to the north of the city.

The eastern axis was in full control of around 20% and disputed control of roughly 80% of the Old City district.

The real progress though has been focused on the southern Shahada and Hisham Abdulmalik districts. As of July 27th (27/7/17) the western axis were in full control of around 30% and disputed control over roughly 95% of Shahada district. The eastern axis were in full control of roughly 60-65% of Hisham Abdulmalik with 100% of the district being under disputed control.

Yesterday (31/7/17) the eastern axis reached the boundary between the Hisham Abdulmalik district and the Shahada district.

This puts the eastern and western axis within 1.5km (0.9 miles) from linking up with each other totally ousting ISIL from the banks of the Euphrates at the southern most point of the city.

At around 17:40 on 1/8/17 (UK date) I'll have to pick this up tomorrow.