Operation Featherweight: Month 38, Week 2, Day 7.

This should be read as a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/operation-featherweight-month-38-week-2_31.html

The Astana Process of course was born out of the liberation of Aleppo City from the Army of Conquest by the Syrians in December 2016. Since then the Syrians have continued to advance east further liberating Aleppo Province from ISIL.

On June 4th (4/6/17) the Syrians liberated the town of Maskanah. Sitting on the banks of Lake Assad around 90km (50 miles) west of Raqqa this was the last ISIL occupied town within Aleppo Province.

Having liberated Maskanah the Syrians have diverted around SDF-held Tabqa and Raqqa. On July 30th (30/7/17) they liberated the town of Dalhah around 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa.

It was the liberation of Dalhah which stopped the southern sweep the SDF had been conducting as part of its Raqqa operation. This had been advancing on Dalhah from Ukayrishah some 10km (6 miles) north-west towards Raqqa.

Having liberated Dalhah the Syrian's western has met up with its advance from Palmyra at the town of as-Suknah. The last ISIL occupied town on Homs Province as-Suknah sits around 130km (75 miles) south of Raqqa, 65km (40 miles) north-east of Palmyra and 120km (70 miles) south-west of Deir-ez-Zour.

By liberating as-Suknah on August 6th (6/8/17) the Syrians have been able to establish a line running north from as-Suknah to the Euphrates River. They are currently advancing from that line east towards Deir-ez-Zour.

The Syrian's objective is to regain control over the vital oil fields in Deir-ez-Zour and Raqqa Provinces while relieving their forces in Deir-ez-Zour city.

From there the Syrians want relieve their forces in Hasakah City some 150km (90 miles) north-east. This will allow them to liberate the area between the H7 Highway and the Syria/Iraq border and the Euphrates River basin. In doing that they will oust ISIL from their last remaining territory including the towns of al-Mayadin, al-Quriyah, Abu Hamam and al-Bukamal.

This will undermine the SDF as an opposition force opening the way for either a frozen conflict where Al Qaeda remain active or a total reclamation of all of Syrian territory. The Russians are already talking in terms of the the war in Syria being over.

Unfortunately the US as leaders of CJTFOIR only seem to have worked this out in the last couple of weeks.

The Astana Zones plan was announced in early May. However a month later on June 6th (6/6/17) CJTFOIR still pressed ahead with launching the SDF's operation on Raqqa.

At the time it was announced in early November 2017 I genuinely believe Obama's objective was that the SDF would be defeated in the Battle for Raqqa. This would cause the Arab and Turkmen elements of the SDF to defect to Erdogan's UTA elements of the Army of Conquest. That would allow Erdogan's forces to cross from Garvaghy Road into Shangri-La annexing it as part of the New Ottoman Empire.

Things have improved significantly since then. However an SDF victory in Raqqa is still far from guaranteed. If it does come it will come after months of grinding battle. This leaves the SDF tied up unable to challenge the Syrians in what is starting to look like a race to Deir-ez-Zour.

Having finally realised this the US has spiralled into something of a panic.

As the SDF's progress has slowed in Raqqa CJTFOIR have massively increased their airstrikes in an effort to blast their way to victory.

On August 26th (26/8/17) the US declared that the SDF will launch an operation to liberate Deir-ez-Zour. However unless something dramatic happens the Battle for Raqqa means they won't have the resources available to launch that operation any time soon. Having been forced to give up the al-Tanf base the US has also been attempting to transfer members of the Southern Front to Hasakah City in an effort to cut the Syrians off there.

Eastern and central Syria have not been the only areas where the Syrians have been making progress against ISIL.

On August 19th (19/8/17) an operation was launched to expel ISIL from an area known as the Arsal Barrens. This is a mountainous area that stretches across the border between Syria and Lebanon.

In 1976 Syria intervened in Lebanon's civil war. This resulted in large sections of Lebanese territory being under Syrian occupation until they withdrew in 2005. In the six years between then and the start of the conflict in Syria in 2011 the Syrian and Lebanese governments never really finalised exactly where in the Arsal Barrens the border was.

As a result of the vacuum ISIL have been able to establish control of a roughly 75kmsq (45 milesq) area of the mountains in both Syrian and Lebanese territory.

The operation launched on August 19th (19/8/17) was designed to oust ISIL from both the Syrian and Lebanese areas of the barrens. As a result it was a combined operation between the Lebanese military and the Syrian military with support from Hezbollah.

This operation was extremely politically delicate.

Due to the near 30 year occupation there is obviously tension between sections of Lebanese political society and Syria. With Hezbollah being amongst other things a Lebanese political party there is obviously tension between them and other Lebanese political parties. Finally the Lebanese forces in the operation were being supported by US Special Operations Forces (SOF's). The US considers Hezbollah to be a terrorist organisation.

Due to these complex political tensions there was obviously a desire by all parties to get the operation over and done with as quickly as possible. By August 22nd (22/8/17) ISIL had been cleared from the majority of the barrens and restricted to just seven small areas.

Rather than continuing the operation for potentially months of end on August 28th (28/8/17) the Syrians and Lebanese brokered a deal with ISIL. In return for handing over the bodies of soldiers killed ISIL would be allowed to leave their small pockets in the barrens and travel to Deir-ez-Zour.

This is very similar to the deal that was brokered in December 2016 which saw Army of Conquest fighters leave Aleppo City to the area around Idlib City establishing the Sudetenland. It is also very similar to the deal the SDF did with ISIL in Tabqa. With ISIL pinned down in the three neighbours right by Tabqa Dam the SDF decided it was better to let them leave for Raqqa than start firing artillery at the dam.

It is certainly a much better deal than the deal Obama did with ISIL in Mosul. There Obama's plan was to allow ISIL to escape to the rest of the world via Turkey and the Garvaghy Road.

Once they arrive at Deir-ez-Zour from the Arsal Barrens if the ISIL fighters head north or west they will run into the SDF. If they head south they will run into the Syrians. If they try to head east they will run into the PMF who've moved all the way up to the Iraq/Syria border. Specifically to block the plan Obama put in place to allow ISIL to flee from Mosul.

Despite this Arsal Barrens deal not being as bad as things the US itself has done the US has been extremely vocal in its opposition to it. In a effort to garner support behind their objections the Americans have been trying fuel a conspiracy theory that the only around 350 ISIL fighters are being sent to re-invade Iraq.

The real reason behind the US' objections is that despite all their strategic failures up to this point they still think their panicked idea of launching the SDF into a mad race to Deir-ez-Zour is a good plan. They're concerned that the ISIL fighters being transferred to Deir-ez-Zour will be used to slow the SDF's advance.

So it seems the Generals who were too incompetent to see the flaws in Obama's strategy are still just as incompetent under Trump.

15:50 on 1/9/17 (UK date).

Edited at around 19:00 on 2/9/17 (UK date) to add;

If you needed further indication of how the US is spiralling on Thursday (31/8/17) it ordered the closure of the Russian Consulate in San Francisco and two diplomatic annexes.

This stems from Obama's decision to close the Russian Embassy to the US and expel Russian diplomats on December 29th 2016 (29/12/16). The day of the Astana Ceasefire. As such I am limited in what I can say.

However in justifying his decision Obama pointed to a report by the Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI) into claims to Russian interference in the November 2016 US Presidential Election. This report was made public on January 10th 2017 (10/1/17).

It found that Russian has a semi-state run news network called RT. This news network reported on US politics. Therefore the DNI concluded that Russia had interfered with the US election.

The problem is that Britain also has a semi-state run news network called the BBC. This also reported on US politics. Therefore by its own logic the DNI would have to conclude that Britain had interfered with the US election.

Qatar has a semi-state run news network called Al Jazeera. This also reported on US politics. Therefore by its own logic the DNI would have to conclude that Qatar had interfered with the US election.

China has various state run news networks. This also reported on US politics. Therefore by its own logic the DNI would have to conclude that China had interfered with the US election.

The Republic of Ireland has a state run news network called RTE. This also reported on US politics. Therefore by its own logic the DNI would have to conclude that Ireland had interfered with the US election.

The US has its own state run propaganda service called Voice of America (VOA). It also operates a semi-state run news network called CNN. By the DNI's reasoning these networks should be forbidden from interfering in foreign elections by reporting on political events in those nations.

So I think the reasoning behind Obama's actions were extremely flawed. However closing Embassies and expelling diplomats is an accepted part of diplomatic relations. It is considered an extreme one though. For example even the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour did not lead to the US expelling the Japanese Ambassador.

Obama though went much further than simply closing the Russian Embassy and expelling diplomats. He also ordered the US government to seize the buildings themselves denying their Russian owners access to maintain the properties or sell them.

This is highly unusual and seems to be without any legal precedent. The nearest thing I can think to compare it to is the principle of Eminent Domain. However when the US government seizes property under Eminent Domain it has to pay compensation.

Some nearly nine months after Obama left office there is a widespread disappointment that the US has not yet returned to behaving like a reasonable and lawful member of the international community.

If things don't improve soon Canada may have to invade under Chapter 7.

19:25 on 2/9/17 (UK date).