Operation Featherweight: Month 37, Week 2, Day 7.

This should be read as a direct continuation of; https://watchitdie.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/operation-featherweight-month-37-week-2.html

In that post I said that the SDF's western axis in Shahada district and the eastern axis in Hisham Abdulmalik district were within 1.5km (0.9 miles) of uniting with each other.

Although it took a while for the information to reach me at the time of writing the distance had actually been closed to around 300 metres/yards. That is well within small arms range meaning that any ISIL fighters between the two axis were either dead or about to be killed.

Although it is yet to be confirmed it's reported today that the eastern axis and the western axis have now reached each other.

If and when that is confirmed it will created a dividing line across the entire south of the city of Raqqa. ISIL will be split into positions north of the line up to the Division 17 base and south of the line down to the Euphrates.

Beyond operations within Raqqa itself the SDF has also been conducting a west-to-east sweep on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

On June 29th (29/6/17) this southern sweep had liberated the entire area south of Raqqa cutting the city of from the rest of Syria.

On July 7th (7/7/17) it liberated the village Ukayrishah some 5km (9 miles) south-east of Raqqa. This had been an important part of ISIL's network for transporting stolen oil.

As of July 24th (24/7/17) this southern sweep had advanced a further 10km (6 miles) south-east taking up positions roughly 25km (15 miles) south-east of Raqqa. Here the SDF have hit a little bit of a snag.

Particularly under the US administration of Barack Obama one of the biggest lies told was that the Syrians and their Russian backers do not fight ISIL. This is simply not true.

In fact it was the Syrians without Russian support who'd taken ISIL to the brink of defeat in 2013 limiting them to an area within the Euphrates basin. It is this that prompted ISIL to invade Iraq instead in the winter of 2013.

In March 2017 Syria and Russian liberated the city of Palmyra from ISIL. This sits roughly 180km (110 miles) south-west of Raqqa almost directly in the centre of Syria.

Since then the Syrians have been advancing from Palmyra to the city of Deir-ez-Zour. This is around 180km (110 miles) north-west of Palmyra and around 130km (80 miles). Throughout the six years of the conflict the Syrians have been able to maintain partial control over Deir-ez-Zour despite their forces being besieged on all sides by ISIL.

In December 2016 the Syrians liberated all of the city of Aleppo from the Al Qaeda-led, ISIL allied Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF). Since then the Syrians have been advancing south-east from Aleppo City. Their objective is to cut ISIL off from their supply-lines into Turkey via the Garvaghy Road area.

On June 4th (4/6/17) the Syrians liberated the town of Maskanah. This sits around 80km (50 miles) south-east of Aleppo City and around 90km (55 miles) west of Raqqa on the southern side of Lake Assad. The liberation of Maskanah marked the complete liberation of Aleppo Province from ISIL.

On July 30th (30/7/17) the Syrians liberated the village of Dalhah as part of their efforts to advance on Deir-ez-Zour from the north-west.

The problem is that Dalhah sits directly next to the SDF positions 10km (6 miles) south-east of Ukayrishah on the southern bank of the Euphrates.

The SDF do control the northern bank of the Euphrates. However what happens next in the area is going to require close communication and coordination between the US and Russia and the Syrians and the SDF.

The SDF's success against ISIL has not gone unnoticed by Erdogan. It has prompted him into yet another aggressive outburst.

On June 22nd (22/6/17) - 16 days after the Raqqa battle began - Erdogan deployed more regular Turkish troops to Garvaghy Road. This is in preparation for an operation which has since been codenamed; "Euphrates Sword."

The purpose of Euphrates Sword is to attack and defeat the SDF in Afrin Canton. This will allow Garvaghy Road to be linked with the area south of Afrin Canton designated; "The Sudetenland." Centred around the city of Idlib this is currently under occupation by the Army of Conquest. Once Garvaghy Road and the Sudetenland have been united Erdogan hopes to have the area designated as deconfliction/safe zone under the Astana Process.

This has long been an aspiration of Erdogan's. However what has prevented him realising his dream thus far is the establishment of a Russian base within Afrin Canton in late-February/early-March 2017. In the week following the troop deployment in Garvaghy Road Russia began dismantling its base in Afrin Canton. This seems to be a Russian greenlight to Erdogan for the Euphrates Sword operation as part of the Astana Process.

On June 30th (30/6/17) Turkish forces both regular and irregular have been shelling Afrin Canton from both within Turkey and Garvaghy Road. This shelling has been near continuous for more then a month continuing today. It has primarily targeted civilian villages and refugee camps. It has also triggered numerous wildfires.

On July 1st (1/7/17) Erdogan's forces ordered civilians to leave the villages of Azaz, Exterin, Rai and Shehba all on the boundary between Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton. Since the expulsion of civilians there have been periodic raids into Afrin Canton by the UTA which have been repelled by the SDF.

On July 30th (30/7/17) regular Turkish forces crossed into Syria to conduct overnight raids within Shangri-La. Specifically around the village of Boban which is around 13km (8 miles) west of Kobane City.

The SDF leadership have made it quite clear to CJTFOIR that if these Turkish attacks continue and escalate the SDF will have no option other than to abandon the Raqqa operation in order to defend Afrin Canton.

Aside from his violence against the SDF in Syria Erdogan has also been aggressively raising the diplomatic temperature.

On July 18th (18/7/17) Turkey's state-run Anadolu news agency published documents provided to it by the Turkish National Security Council. These detailed the size and location of all the CJTFOIR SOF bases within. Presumably in an invitation for ISIL and the Army of Conquest to attack those bases. Or at least to intimidate CJTFOIR into closing those bases.

On Friday (28/7/17) Joe Robinson a 24 year old British national was arrested whilst on holiday in Turkey on terrorism charges. The allegations stem for Robinson service against ISIL in the International Brigades of the SDF. 

This seems intended to put the British government in a difficult position because they did not officially sanction Robinson's service with the SDF. Therefore they can only really provide him with normal Consular assistance rather than demand his release. 

It must be said though that the decision to holiday in Turkey seems a particularly stupid one.

It does seem extremely odd that Erdogan feels he is in a position to behave in such a confrontational manner.

On June 5th (5/6/17) Arab states led by Saudi Arabia introduced trade sanctions against Qatar. This stems from a speech that Qatar's ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani gave on May 20th (20/5/17). This was made public on May 23rd (23/5/17).

The main message of the speech was that Saudi Arabia had humiliated the Arab world by accepting US President Trump on a state visit. Sheikh Tamim felt there was no need to acknowledge Trump as US President because through the Muslim Brotherhood Qatar would soon use allegations of Russian hacking to overthrow him.

Alongside Qatar the Muslim Brotherhood's main sponsor is Erdogan's Turkey. So as soon as the Arab states sanctioned Qatar Erdogan stepped into to support them boosting trade between the two nations and establishing a military base in Qatar. Particularly the increase in trade has significantly mitigated the effects of the Arab sanctions.

Therefore the logical next step for the Arab states would be to expand the sanctions to include Turkey. Unlike Qatar which is the World's largest exporter of natural gas Turkey does not have deep cash reserves so would be unlikely to survive economic sanctions.

However the US has stepped in to calm the situation. This has discouraged the Arab states from expanding their sanctions to Turkey. The US' ultimate aim seems to be to end the blockade entirely.

Being so reliant on US protection you wouldn't think Erdogan would be in a position to make hostile demands of the US.

16:55 on 2/8/17 (UK date).