Operation Oil Theft: Month 17, Week 5, Day 2.

Due to delays in Libya's election for it's General National Congress (GNC) voting has continued today (8/7/12) in Sirte. However counting in the 98% areas that were able to vote on schedule yesterday (7/7/12) has begun. The results are not due until later in the week however the general consensus is that while the electoral system was specifically designed so no one party wins overall control the National Forces Alliance (NFA) will emerge as the largest party. Led by Mahmoud Jabril this is a very moderate, liberal party that is essentially the National Transitional Council (NTC) only with a democratic mandate. This is most likely their reward for the very good job they've done up to now under very difficult circumstances

In all 24 polling stations were unable to operate due to violence. These were all located in either in the troubled Kufra region or in the east of the country. The voter turnout 60% seems to have been suppressed by eastern-federalist campaign to boycott the election and they have also seized five oil terminals although three of these - Ras Lanuf, Sidra and Brega have been returned to NTC control today. I don't think this is really the time to get into the details of exactly what the federalists grievance is because Libya really needs to count the votes of this election, get some form of government sworn in and start work on writing a constitution. That's because unlike Egypt Libya doesn't have the luxury of having a strong military to run things day to day while the politicians sort themselves out.

However the federalists main complaint is that the way that electoral boundaries have been draw means they feel unrepresented. This is a constant complaint in a democratic society. For example in Britain the Liberal Democrat (LibDem) Party recently threatened to block Conservative Party plans to re-draw Britain's electoral boundaries unless the Conservative Party promise to help get LibDem plans for House of Lords reform through Parliament. Also in the United States one of the big worries about the upcoming Presidential election is that after winning control of many states in the 2010 mid-terms Republican Governors have been re-drawing the electoral boundaries to give their Presidential and candidate advantage. This gerrymandering as it's known could mean that although President Obama wins the largest share of the vote the way that vote is shared out would result in Mitt Romney actually winning a very tight race.

In Libya the electoral boundaries are divided up according to demographics meaning that the western Tripolitania region gets more seats in the GNC then the eastern Cyrenaica region because more people live there. This is how things are done in most democratic countries because a democracy is meant to be a government of the people not a government of the trees and mountains. However I appreciate that the Cyrenaica region was terribly neglected under Qaddafi meaning that people moved away lowering it's population. Therefore it may be possible to set up a funding formula that sees the Cyrenaica region receive some sort of subsidy in order to bring it's quality of life back up to the standard in the Tripolitania region encouraging people to move back evening out the population imbalance. However this is a very complicated thing set up and should be done only if a calm and considered assessment of the arguments involved conclude it's the right thing to do not because some men with guns have seized some oil terminals.