Operation Oil Theft: Month 18, Week 2, Day 1.

As of Sunday (15/7/12) - the last day I have information for - the official results of Libya's July 7th (7/7/12) election have still not been released. However from the results that have been made public it seems that Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance (NFA) are in the lead with 41 seats. The Muslim Brotherhood linked Freedom & Construction Party are in second place with 16 seats. The National Front are in distant third place with 3 seats. The Union for Homeland are in fourth place with 2 seats. The Central Union Current are in fifth place with 2 seats. The Homeland Party are in sixth place with 1 seat. There are 15 seats for parties still up for grabs. The 120 seats reserved for independent candidates are too difficult to predict so I'll have to wait until the official results are published before I can comment.

In the meantime today (16/7/12) the President of the Libyan Olympic Committee Albil Elalem has been kidnapped by nine or ten men in military style uniforms in Tripoli. No further information has been released and no ransom demands have been made. However kidnappings are all too common in Libya and tend to be a way of forcing political concessions out of the National Transitional Council (NTC) rather then being for profit.

For example on July 9th (9/7/12) two journalists were kidnapped in Bani Walid as they returned from covering the election. As the journalists were from Misrasta which sees itself as the crucible of the anti-Qaddafi uprising in the west and the kidnappers were from Bani Walid which along with Sebha and Sirte fought for Qaddafi until the very end the incident quickly re-opened old wartime divisions. The following day (10/7/12) the Misrata Brigade militia along with members of the Libya shield militia assembled an ominously named Bani Walid invasion force to storm the town and rescue the hostages. To make matters worse on July 14th (14/7/12) two members of the invasion force along with an embedded journalist were also captured by Bani Walid forces. Fortunately due to some extensive mediation by the NTC and various tribal elders the initial two journalists were released without violence on Sunday (15/7/12) in exchange for an unspecified number (believed to be 120) of Bani Walid residents who were taken prisoner during the war. The two invasion force members and the embedded journalist are still being held.

While I most certainly don't agree with their tactics I can't help but feel the Bani Walid forces have a point about the prisoners. Although no-one's sure of the exact number almost a year after the end of the war 4000 prisoners remain in NTC custody and a further 5000 are being held by the various militias. This contributes to keeping the wartime mentality going which increases the tension with the Tebu in Kufra and the people of Sirte, Sebha and Bani Walid. It also gives the militia the idea that they're still needed when maybe it's time for them to start disbanding. Obviously the senior commanders of Qaddafi forces need to be prosecuted but it might be time to hold an amnesty for the foot soldiers and let them gradually go free in small groups. After all there's little point winning a war in the country remains trapped in that war.
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