Wednesday, 7 July 2010

The Stock Market's Going to Wobble.

Tonight Spain take on Germany in the World Cup semi-final. If the fact the winner gets a place in the World Cup final wasn't important enough this match could be quite significant in European politics.

The Spanish economy did badly during the global recession while the German one did relatively well. This means that the Spanish are being forced to implement large spending cuts and are hoping the Germans will be on hand to loan them money to prevent their economy from collapsing much like Germany did for Greece earlier in the year.

So if Germany win tonight's football match people may see it as a sign that Germany has won the argument and won't be providing emergency loans to Spain. This is going to undermine confidence in the Spanish economy and re-ignite worries that a European banking crisis will trigger a second worldwide recession. Conversely if Spain win then some people may see it as a sign that Spain has won the argument and Germany will be making lots of emergency funding available. This will undermine confidence in the strength of the German economy and raise fears that the entire Eurozone is going to be dragged down to the level of the Spanish and Greek economies. Either way there's going to be headaches.

I can't but thinking that wouldn't it be nice if the result of tonight's game was a reflection of nothing more then which side was the better football team over the 90 minutes.

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