Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 5, Day 2.

Within the current conflict in Syria there are five key areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La:

This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.

This was done on two main axis;

One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.

One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.

On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

On May 1st (1/5/18) a new anti-ISIL operation was launched in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."

The first phase of Round Up saw the SDF isolate the population centres on the Euphrates River still under ISIL control. Both from the Syria/Iraq border and from each other.

This saw the SDF advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border.

It also saw the SDF reach the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of al-Bahrah and around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Abu Hassan.

The first phrase of Round Up also saw the SDF liberate the remaining areas of the desert to the north of the Euphrates from ISIL.

In that desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.

Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.

On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF formally announced the successful end of the first phase of the Round Up operation.
 
They also announced the start of preparations for the second phase of the operation. Although not officially declared it seems highly likely this will focus on liberating the remaining population centres on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL. 

Garvaghy Road:

This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of  the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).

The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front.

However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham (HTS).

Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include;

The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).

The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.

The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.

Afrin Canton:
 
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.

Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.

However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest. 

However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition. 

Within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP). Along with other elements of the Army of Conquest coalition such as the UTA.

Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.

However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.

The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern boundary of the Sudetenland.

Central Syria:

The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.

Since then Syrian forces have been massing on the southern boundary of the Sudetenland in preparation of an offensive to liberate the area.

The situation across Syria is now largely paused as everyone waits to see if, when and how this Sudetenland operation will be launched. Al Qaeda supporting elements within Britain clearly believe this is a question that will be decided by a strengthened Turkey and a weakened Russia.

In the meantime the majority of the actual action has been taking place at the opposite end of Syria. Around the town of al-Tanf.

Al-Tanf is located on the Syria/Iraq border around 210km (125 miles) east of the Syrian capital Damascus. It was liberated from ISIL by the Syrians in June 2017.

Despite the ISIL presence in the area CJTFOIR have long operated a base just outside al-Tanf. Used to train fragments of the long defunct FSA this has been designated; "Bobby Sands."

Following the Syrians liberation of al-Tanf from ISIL the UK and other CJTFOIR nations removed their SOF's from Bobby Sands.

The US however continued a operate Bobby Sands as a purely American base. Used to support Islamist FSA fragments. Most notably the Revolutionary Commando Army/Maghawir al-Thara (MaT) and the Lions of the East Army/Jaish Usud al-Sharqiya (JuS) groups.

The presence of now exclusively US troops at Bobby Sands means that the Syrians cannot engage ISIL in the area. Likewise the presence of Syrian troops mean that CJTFOIR cannot engage ISIL in the area.

This has created a safe haven for ISIL. Particularly at the Rukban Refugee Camp which ISIL have taken over. The Rukban camp sits right on the Syria/Jordan border around 20km (12 miles) south of al-Tanf.

Having expelled ISIL from all of the surrounding area the Syrians and their Russian allies are now very keen to expel ISIL from the Rukban refugee camp. As a result they have recently been calling a lot of attention to the situation and how the US is protecting ISIL by obstructing them.

The attention Syria and Russia have been calling to the situation has only taken the form of press releases and speeches from spokespeople. However the growing pressure has drawn a very militant response from the US.

On or around August 30th (30/8/18) members of the Lions of the East Army from the Bobby Sands base launched an attack against Syrian forces around Palmyra. This small attack was quickly repelled by Syrian forces. On September 1st (1/9/18) Russia made details of the attack public.

On September 3rd (3/9/18) the US responded by conducting airstrikes against a Syrian military convoy close to al-Tanf. This strike killed four Syrian troops and seven non-Syrians which the US is keen to claim were Iranian. Although they could have been volunteers from places such as Iraq or Afghanistan.

The hostility with which the US clings to the Bobby Sands really highlights the fundamental flaw behind their nearly eight year involvement in the conflict. It is the flaw that leaves them unable to decide where they stand on the Sudetenland operation.

In 2009 Barack Obama became US President. Immediately upon taking up office he was inexplicably awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

In Obama this seemed to trigger a sort of Grandiose Delusion similar to the famous; "Jerusalem Syndrome." The Nobel was apparently a divine symbol that Obama was to unite all the religions and peoples of the World in peace. Starting with the long running Israel/Palestine conflict.

The problem was that Obama is extremely lazy and the Israel/Palestine conflict is extremely complicated.

Even taken in isolation Israel's internal politics are ferociously complicated. Something which the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) are starting to discover.

The EBU are probably best know for the annual Eurovision Song Contest. The 2018 Song Contest was won by Israel. Meaning that the EBU is currently trying to negotiate with Israel over Israel's hosting of the 2019 Song Contest.

So far this has triggered a massive argument within Israel over already controversial plan to split Israel's public broadcaster known as; "Kan." The plan would see Kan privatised and split into a news arm and an entertainment arm. Under EBU rules the host broadcaster must be a public broadcaster which much produce news as part of its output.

Having agreed to at least delay the privatisation of Kan until after 2019 Song Contest the Israeli government then decided to make an issue out of the deposit which must be paid to the EBU. This usually exceeds the assets of the host broadcaster so the money is made available to the host broadcaster by the host government.

This is the case with Kan. However the Israeli government has declined to make the money available. With Kan being legally prevented from taking out a loan it cannot guarantee this lead to real concern the 2019 Song Contest would be cancelled. Eventually the Israeli government agreed that it would guarantee a loan taken out by Kan to pay the deposit.

Just for good measure on August 30th (30/8/18) the Israeli Public Prosecutor announced that Sara Netanyahu - wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is formally suspected of corruption. Not to be mistaken with other corruption cases facing the Netanyahu this case - Case 4000 - relates to financial support Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli Minister for Communications, gave to private Israeli private broadcaster and Kan rival Bezeq.

This of course all before the EBU get into the main issue of whether the 2019 Song Contest will be held in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Even Israel's religious parties seem to be lobbying for Tel Aviv by insisting that rehearsals can't be held in Jerusalem on the Jewish sabbath.

The thing is that this is all fairly average and routine for Israeli politics.

With the EBU's announcement looming Kan was forced to apologise on September 3rd (3/9/18) for playing part of the Wagner Opera "Gotterdammerung" on one of its radio stations. Wagner is considered Adolf Hitler's favourite composer and his music was often played in death camps during the Nazi Holocaust.

Therefore the playing of Wagner's music is generally frowned upon in Israel.

One group that do from time-to-time play Wagner's music in Israel are the Zionist Settlers. When Israeli police occasionally remove illegal Zionist settlements from Palestinian territory the settlers will frequently respond by blasting them with the music of Wagner.

A clear and highly offensive effort by one group of Israeli Jews to compare another group of Israeli Jews to Nazi death camp guards.

As you can probably tell from that Israel's Zionist Settlers are an extreme and extremely unpleasant bunch.

For further evidence you only need to look at the 2015 "Wedding of Hate" case. At a wedding of Zionist Settlers the main entertainment was the celebration of that years Duma arson attack in which a Palestinian family were burnt alive in their home. Wedding guest triumphantly acted out setting fire to and stabbing Palestinian children.

You could also look at the 1995 murder of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. He was killed by a Zionist Settler.

Both within internal Israel politics and across the wider conflict with Palestine there is a need to counter balance the Zionist Settlers. Within the wider region Iran is vital in providing that counter balance.

Although I don't think there is anything more complicated than Israel's internal politics the internal politics of Iran must come a close second.

Within Iran there are multiple seats of power. There is the Assembly of Experts which chooses the Supreme Leader and is backed by the Revolutionary Guard. Then there is the elected President and separately an elected Parliament. A Parliament which recently censured the President.

The fact that Iran doesn't have a clear leader or chain of command is complicated further by the fact Iranians are quite French in their outlook. In the sense they'll work on something all morning, get bored and go off to lunch. When they return they'll forget what they were doing in the morning and spend all afternoon working on something completely different.

Faced with all this complexity Obama decided he couldn't be bothered to learn. Instead his plan was to make all the complexity go away.

So for example you have Obama's 2010 coordinated, global sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. Designed to shut down any discussion about Iran's nuclear program. Especially the discussions complicated by the fact they weren't actually about Iran's nuclear program.

When the violence in Syria began in 2011 Obama saw an opportunity to remove Iran from the discussion completely. He considered it a viable idea to back Al Qaeda and ISIL to overthrow Syria's government and end its long term alliance with Iran.

This idea found traction within the US due to factions within the Republican Party.

In the wake of the Islamic Revolution in November 1979 Iran took 52 American Embassy Workers hostage. In April 1980 the Democrat President Jimmy Carter launched; "Operation: Eagle Claw" to rescue them. It failed miserably.

At the November 1980 US Presidential Election Republican candidate Ronald Reagan used the fate of the hostages to defeat Jimmy Carter. In January 1981 then President Reagan paid the Iranians US$8bn to release the hostages after 444 days.

Although they like to forget how Reagan freed the hostages Republicans have been beating that tired old drum ever since.

Ignoring that a lot of time has passed and other things have happened. Such as the end of the Cold War and some terror attacks against the US in 2001.

The idea of backing Al Qaeda and ISIL to force Iran from Syria is of course utterly insane.

Although you may not like them both Iran and Syria are nation states. They are members of the UN and conduct normal diplomatic relations. As a result there are a number of levers that can be used to influence their behaviour and the behaviour of their proxies such as Hezbollah.

Al Qaeda and ISIL are chaotic terror groups. There are none of the diplomatic levers that can be used against Iran and Syria

I would've thought how insane this idea was became clear in 2014 when the US and others were forced to switch their allegiance and start fighting ISIL.

Apparently though this thinking still persists within America.

In June 2018 a US delegation visited the Syrian government in Damascus. The US offered to withdraw from Syria entirely with ISIL and Al Qaeda undefeated. Their only objective was that Iran also withdrew from Syria.

It should hardly come as a surprise then that the US is still struggling to get its head around the Sudetenland.

17:25 on 5/9/18 (UK date).