Operation Featherweight: Month 50, Week 4, Day 3.

My previous post on the conflict in Syria was on August 16th (16/8/18).

In that post I detailed how the six areas in the conflict which existed at the start of May 2018 had been reduced to five;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La:

This is located in north-eastern Syria. Essentially it is everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.

This was done on two main axis;

One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.

One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates.This saw the SDF clear the Islamic State of the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.

On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

On May 1st (1/5/18) a new anti-ISIL operation was launched in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."

The first phase of Round Up saw the SDF isolate the population centres on the Euphrates River still under ISIL control. Both from the Syria/Iraq border and from each other.

This saw the SDF advance on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border.

It also saw the SDF reach the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of al-Bahrah and around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Abu Hassan.

The first phrase of Round Up also saw the SDF liberate the remaining areas of the desert to the north of the Euphrates from ISIL.

In that desert area the Cizre Storm operation had succeeded in establishing a line between the town of Markadah on the Khobar River and the Buwarah Salt Pan on the Syria/Iraq border. Everything to the south between this Markadah-Buwarah Line and the north bank of the Euphrates had already been cleared of ISIL.

Therefore Round Up focused on liberating everything north of the Markadah-Buwarah Line. Up to longstanding SDF controlled territory. Essentially a line running between al-Hasakah City and Mount Kolik on the Syria/Iraq border.

Garvaghy Road:

This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of  the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).

The most high profile member of the Army of Conquest coalition is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front.

However in order to disguise both their and the Army of Conquest's links to Al Qaeda they have gone through numerous name changes. Currently they prefer to be referred to as; The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir a-Sham (HTS).

Although they are dominant within the Army of Conquest Al Qaeda only have a limited presence within the Garvaghy Road area. There the main group within the coalition are the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

Other significant factions within the Army of Conquest include;

The Islamic Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham).

The Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). The Army of Islam are famous for being far more extreme than both ISIL and Al Qaeda. In fact they have executed members of ISIL for being too moderate in their pursuit of genocide.

The Army of Conquest also includes a vast number of small, Islamist fragments of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA). Within the Garvaghy Road area these fragments have been entirely absorbed into the UTA.

Afrin Canton:
 
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.

Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.

However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It crosses parts of both Idlib Province and Hama Province. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest. 

However in this area Al Qaeda are very much the dominant part of the coalition. 

Within what is their heartland in Syria Al Qaeda operate alongside a small group of ISIL fighters and Al Qaeda's longtime ally the Turkistan Islamic Party (TiP). Along with other elements of the Army of Conquest coalition such as the UTA.

Unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest coalition within the Sudetenland.

However the regular Turkish military (TSK) have established a network of 12 Control Points across the area. These are effectively small bases have been established in collaboration between Turkey and Al Qaeda.

The most southern of these Turkish Control Points sits close to the town of Lataminah in northern Hama Province. Sitting around 15km (10 miles) south of the town of Khan Sheikhoun this really marks the southern boundary of the Sudetenland.

Central Syria:

The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.

This victory took them to southern boundary of the Sudetenland. Almost immediately Syrian forces began redeploying in preparation for an operation to expand the Central Syria area further by liberating the Sudetenland.

On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF formally announced the successful end of the first phase of the Round Up operation.

The SDF also announced the start of preparations for the second phase of the operation. Although not officially declared it seems highly likely this will focus on liberating the remaining population centres on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.

August 19th (19/8/18) saw the start of the annual Hajj pilgrimage. Lasting until August 24th (24/8/18) this saw Muslims from across the World travel to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

Many of the pilgrims travelling from both Syria and Iraq did so by road. Diverting security resources to protecting their convoys as they travelled through desert areas where ISIL along with other armed groups and bandits continue to operate.

As it tends to do the 2018 Hajj pilgrimage coincided with the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha. This ran from August 21st (21/8/18) until August 25th (25/8/18).

Also known as the Feast of Sacrifice Eid al-Adha is known to both Christians and Jews as; "The Binding of Isaac. As told in the Book of Genesis.

In order to prove his faith God commands Abraham to sacrifice his son Isaac at Mount Moriah. Just as Abraham is about to sacrifice Isaac God considers that his faith has be proved. So sends a messenger to tell Abraham to spare Issac and instead a sacrifice a goat for a feast.

Despite being shared by all of the Abrahamic religions Eid al-Adha is not widely celebrated amongst Jews and Christians. Therefore there is no easy comparison to make with western religious celebrations.

However culturally it's celebrated much like Easter. In the sense that you get some time off work to spend with family. Although not as much time as you get off at Christmas.

Even in the military no-one wants to be the boss who forces people to work on Christmas.

As a result in the time since my previous post very little has actually happened.

The only real action has been within Afrin Canton. There the SDF have continued their resistance against the Turkish occupiers and their mercenaries.

On August 6th (6/8/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a vehicle patrol of Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade of the UTA in the Sherwa area. This resulted in the death of one UTA fighter.

On the same day (6/8/18) the SDF used another roadside bomb to ambush a vehicle patrol by the regular Turkish military (TSK) between the cities of Afrin and Jinderes. This resulted in the deaths of two Turkish soldiers.

Also on August 6th (6/8/18) the SDF conducted a bomb attack against the HQ of the Turkish police in Afrin City. This resulted in the deaths of five Turkish police officers and wounded seven others. One of whom died of his wounds on August 12th (12/8/18).

On August 11th (11/8/18) the SDF used a roadside bomb to ambush a vehicle patrol being conducted jointly by the TSK and an undisclosed brigade of the UTA in the Sherwa area. This resulted in the death of one Turkish soldier and an undetermined number of UTA fighters.

On August 12th (12/8/18) the SDF used a pair of roadside bombs to ambush a joint TSK/UTA vehicle patrol in Afrin City. This resulted in the deaths of ten fighters from the Hamza Division/Firqat al-Hamza brigade of the UTA.

On August 19th (19/8/18) SDF snipers in the Mabata area shot and killed Muhammad Arduan. A commander with the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade of the UTA.

On August 24th (24/8/18) SDF snipers in the Bulbul area shot and killed Khalid al-Taher. Another commander with the Levant Legion/Faylaq al-Sham brigade of the UTA.

It is right and proper to refer to members of the UTA as; "Turkish Mercenaries." They fight for Turkey for the simple reason that Turkey pays them to do so.

However it is worth noting that while the UTA's payscale is calculated in US Dollars they are often actually paid in Turkish Lira. The value of the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar has recently collapsed. This has made property looted from Afrin's civil population even more valuable to the UTA as they try to top up their earnings.

There is really no debate that the UTA are engaged in widespread looting. They make no attempt to disguise war crimes they are actually quite proud of.

On August 23rd (23/8/18) transit documents issued by the UTA's 9th Division brigade were found instructing checkpoints in the Rajo area not to stop trucks containing what the documents listed as; "The legitimate spoils of war."

The increased value of looted property has continued to fuel tensions between different brigades of the UTA.

Just yesterday (29/8/18) there were running gun battles between the UTA's 9th Division and the Victory of Sultan Muhammad/Sultan Mohammed al-Fateh brigades on the Rajo road in the centre of Afrin City. At least four civilians were injured in the clashes.

Yesterday (29/8/18) evening a car bomb carried out by one of the two brigades of the UTA struck the same area of Afrin City. Killing at least two civilians and wounding 20 others.

At around 17:40 on 30/8/18 (UK date) I will have to pick this up later.

Edited at around 19:00 30/8/18 (UK date) to add;

Since the end of Eid al-Adha and certainly since the end of the Hajj the redeployment of Syrian forces to the southern boundary of the Sudetenland has resumed and intensified. This has triggered significant speculation that a Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland is imminent.

At this stage though there are only rumours and counter-rumours. Many of which seem to change throughout the course of the day. I really do not feel comfortable amplifying any of those rumours by discussing them here.

However on August 28th (28/8/18) Russia confirmed that it had begun negotiations with unspecified groups within the Army of Conquest. This would indicate that an operation within the Sudetenland would follow the same pattern as recent operations in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin.

That is to say that prior to any fighting the armed groups were offered the chance to surrender and that offer remained on the table throughout.

Under the terms of what is really that standard surrender offered by the Syrians members of any armed groups would be granted amnesty.

That meant they would not be arrested or imprisoned. They wouldn't even have to disband as a military force. However they would need to make amends for their past crimes by fighting on behalf of the Syrian government in what are termed; "Amnesty Battalions."

That offer is surrender is accompanied by a show-of-force. Intense air and artillery strikes to make clear to the armed groups that they stand no chance of survival let alone victory. In order to encourage them to accept the surrender offer.

There have so far being no reports of any significant air or artillery strikes within the Sudetenland. However Russia has marshaled a significant show-of-force within the Mediterranean Sea.

There Russia has assembled a large naval taskforce made up of at least 13 warships and 2 submarines. These are all capable of raining Cruise missiles down on the Sudetenland in such volume and at such a rate it would utterly cripple the armed groups operating there. It would certainly rapidly eliminate the 12 Turkish bases located there.

Today (30/8/18) Russia has announced that this taskforce will be joined by a further 12 warships and submarines along with 30 aircraft including strategic bombers capable of launching Cruise missiles. Initially this Russian military hardware will conduct a training drill between September 1st (1/9/18) and September 8th (8/9/18).

The CJTFOIR response to this has been confused to say the least. It is as such the US has yet to decided what it intends to do.

On the one hand the US has dispatched the USS Ross warship to the Mediterranean. There it has joined two other American warships which are said to be in transit from operations in the Persian Gulf. Like the Russian warships all three of the American ships main weapon is their ability to launch Cruise missiles.

On August 22nd (22/8/18) the US, France and the UK issued a statement declaring that they would act against the Syrians if Chemical Weapons were used in the Sudetenland. That declaration was made unprompted by any suggestion that Syria was planning to use Chemical Weapons in the Sudetenland.

That seems to indicate the CJTFOIR would like to intervene on the side of Al Qaeda in the Sudetenland. However they need there to be claims of a Chemical Weapons attack in order to give them an excuse.

Needless to say that statement has prompted Turkey to work with various groups in the Sudetenland to prepare to launch a Chemical Weapons attack. In order to provide that excuse for CJTFOIR to swoop to their aid.

On August 25th (25/8/18) Russian intelligence announced that they had tracked a Chemical Weapons shipment - namely Chlorine - from Turkey into the hands of the White Helmets in the town of Kafr Zita.

On August 28th (28/8/18) Russian intelligence announced it has tracked another - unspecified - Chemical Weapons shipment. This time entering Syria from Turkey and then travelling on to the village of Afs followed by the town of Saraqib. On this occasion Russia identified Ahrar al-Sham as the group preparing to use Chemical Weapons.

Traditionally Ahrar al-Sham have been backed by Saudi Arabia. While the Army of Islam have been backed by Qatar who are linked to Turkey and the UTA via the Muslim Brotherhood. Since May 2017 there has been considerable tension between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Particularly over the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood. Even if news of those tensions appear to have still not reached the US intelligence community.

On the other hand it has been reported that CJTFOIR have installed an advanced, portable radar network within Shangri-La. Although I've yet to hear that they've installed the missiles a military force would normally only install such a radar network as part of a ground based air defence system.

Obviously an air defence system is capable of targeting any aircraft that come within it its range. However in Shangri-La and Syria more generally there have been no notable tensions between CJTFOIR and Syrian or Russian aircraft. ISIL nor any other terrorist group have aircraft.

There have though been significant problems between CJTFOIR and Turkish aircraft. Most notably in March 2017 when Turkish aircraft conducted airstrikes against US SOF's at Manbij. Forcing Russian aircraft to chase the Turkish aircraft off to protect the Americans.

Apart from denying its aircraft the freedom to operate this radar network sends another message to Turkey.

Although I lack the clearance to know the exact type and location it is extremely likely that this radar network extends across all of northern Syria all the way out to Cyprus. This allows CJTFOIR to monitor all air traffic across all of Syria.

CJTFOIR have long had this capability using radar stations in Turkey. Establishing a rival network in Shangri-La sends the message that CJTFOIR does not need Turkey.

The occasion of Eid al-Adha saw the release of messages from both Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Al Qaeda in Syria and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Both released on August 22nd (22/8/18).

In his video message al-Jolani railed against the surrender agreements used in East Ghouta and the Yarmouk River Basin area. He declared that to even think about them is treason against God and that no such thing will happen in the Sudetenland. He also warned his followers not to rely on Turkey's protection. In an effort to distance Turkey from Al Qaeda.

The purpose of al-Baghdadi's audio message was really to dispel the rumours that he's already dead.

As such he tried to reference as many current events as he possibly could. Such as the looming Syrian operation to liberate the Sudetenland.

He also referenced Turkey's current economic problems which he echoed the mantra of Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan by wrongly blaming on US sanctions. He also claimed that Russia and Iran who have handed ISIL so many defeats were on the verge of the type of economic collapse seen in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/North).

Al-Baghdadi also urged his followers to patiently persevere claiming that in the eyes of God victory is not measured by the territory held or by who holds air superiority.

In a clear acknowledgement that ISIL have lost a lot of territory because they have no way to defend against CJTFOIR and Russian air superiority.

20:00 on 30/8/18 (UK date).