Monday, 17 September 2018

Operation Featherweight: Month 51, Week 2, Day 5.

There are currently five areas of operation within the conflict in Syria;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

The Shangri-La area is located in the north-east of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-east of the Euphrates River.

It is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

One of the of foreign volunteers with the SDF's International Brigade is former British soldier Joe Robinson.

He was arrested in Turkey in July 2017. On Saturday (15/9/18) he was sentenced to 7 years in prison as a member of a terrorist organisation. Turkey classes the SDF to be part of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which it considers to be a terrorist group.

Joe Robinson's arrest and imprisonment does put Britain in a difficult position diplomatically.

If you are a visitor to a country you are expected to abide by all the laws of that country. No matter how ridiculous they are. 

In August there was a case where a British woman was jailed for four days in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for possession of alcohol. Alcohol that was in her system because she'd drunk a complimentary glass of wine provided by the airline Emirates on her flight into Dubai. Although I gather she was also travelling on an expired visa and was extremely rude to border guards.

In situations like this diplomats cannot demand that their citizens be released. They can merely request, cajole or advise that their citizens be released.

Complicating matters further Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels that the accepted rules and norms of behaviour simply do not apply to him. Much of his approach to international relations has become centred around kidnapping foreign nationals to use them as hostages to blackmail their governments.

Since 2016 the US has been dealing with the case of Andrew Brunson. An American Christian minister living in the Turkish city of Izmir.

In October 2016 Andrew Brunson was also arrested as a member of a terrorist group. His crime was to have a retail account with a High Street bank Erdogan claims is part of an elaborate international conspiracy against him.

A conspiracy so elaborate it apparently includes both the SDF and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Despite the many years those two groups have spent fighting each other.

In June 2018 Erdogan used Brunson as leverage.

To force the US to put pressure on Israel to release Ebru Ozkan. A Turkish spy working in the West Bank to coordinate much of the recent violence seen in response to the US' decision to move its Embassy to Jerusalem. In July 2018 Israel released Ozkan. Erdogan reneged on the agreement with the US and kept Brunson in custody. No doubt to use him as further leverage.

Just last Tuesday (11/9/18) Turkey arrested Austrian journalist Max Zirngast. Again on vague charges of terrorism.

The 2015 European migration crisis saw Austrian politics shift dramatically to the right. Therefore is likely they will lead the opposition within the European Union (EU) to their close neighbour Germany's open door immigration policy. Should Erdogan once again attempt to flood Europe with terrorists and irregular migrants.

Despite the diplomatic problems the case presents I have to say that BBC News' coverage of Robinson's sentencing on Saturday (15/9/18) was shameful. Despite Robinson being a British military veteran they seemed to agree with Erdogan's position entirely. That fighting against ISIL is an evil terrorist act.

I think the obvious advice is for people to avoid travelling to Turkey. Robinson, Brunson and Zirngast seem to be one step away from appearing in videos in orange jumpsuits with Erdogan threatening to behead them if his demands are not met.

The boundaries of Shangri-La were fully established through the SDF's "Cizre Storm" operation launched in September 2017. This saw the SDF advance south-east from the so-called Madan-Shadaddi Line. First to the Khobar River and then from the Khobar River to the Syria/Iraq border.

This was done on two main axis;

One which advanced along the northern bank of the Euphrates liberating the towns and population centres which sit on the river bank.

One that advanced across the desert area to the north of the Euphrates. This saw the SDF clear ISIL from an area between roughly the Khobar River and Syria's border with Iraq.

On November 25th 2017 (25/11/17) the desert axis reached the Syria/Iraq border. In the area of the Buwarah Salt Pan which sits around 90km (50 miles) north of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

On February 22nd 2018 (22/2/18) the river bank axis liberated the town of al-Bahrah. This sits around 40km (25 miles) north-west of where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

Due to the Turkish invasion of then SDF controlled Afrin Canton in north-west Syria the Cizre Storm operation had to be halted on March 6th (6/3/18).

On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation in Shangri-La. Under the new name; "Operation: Round Up."

This operation began with two concurrent phases.

The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) stretch of the north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This is made up of 10 towns stretching from Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.

Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.

This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan. Hajin sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.

At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani. These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles) north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.

The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.

Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around 240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.

On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the SDF forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.

Preparations for the next phase of the Round Up operation allowed ISIL time to regroup and begin launching attacks of its own against the SDF.

On August 21st (21/8/18) ISIL attempted to launch an attack using Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) against a CJTFOIR base containing ground forces at Shadaddi. This attack was thwarted by CJTFOIR aircraft long before it could even reach the base.

On August 29th (29/8/18) ISIL conducted a hit and run style attack against SDF positions against the Azraq Oil Field. Part of the much larger al-Omar Oil & Gas Field is located around 15km (10 miles) west of the Buwarah Salt Pan.

On September 4th (4/9/18) ISIL claimed several attacks against the SDF. Roadside bomb ambushes of SDF vehicle patrols. Both close the Etihad University in Raqqa City and in Karama close to Raqqa city. Also a conventional assault on an SDF base close to Shaddadi.

On September 5th (5/9/18) ISIL made an unverified claim that its snipers had killed two members of the SDF in Raqqa City. On September 7th (7/9/18) ISIL made a similar unverified claim that it had killed three members of the SDF in Shadaddi.

On September 8th (8/9/18) ISIL ambushed a SDF vehicle patrol near the Sayjan Oil Field. This is located about 15km (10 miles) north-west of the Azraq Oil Field.

This increase in ISIL attacks prompted the SDF to declare a curfew for Raqqa City and the nearby city of Tabqa on September 6th (6/9/18).

That was to allow for raids to be carried out by the SDF's elite Anti-Terrorism Unit (YAT) against ISIL sleeper cells. Almost a Special Operations Force (SOF) the YAT are similar to Iraq's Counter Terrorism Force (ICTF) who are modelled on the US' Green Berets.

In the course of their operations in Raqqa City and Tabqa the YAT were able to capture a large number of ISIL sleeper agents and seize large quantities of small arms and explosives. They also had similar success in operations conducted in Hasakah City on September 11th (11/9/18).

Those operations follow from the YAT's success in capturing senior ISIL intelligence officer Adil Musa Abdoul Jezar on September 3rd (3/9/18).

The success of the YAT bodes well for Shangri-La's future. Once ISIL are cleared from their last holdouts the fight is going to shift much more into identifying, tracking and capturing ISIL sleeper cells and disrupting planned terror attacks.

Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates from ISIL.

It is being conducted on three axis;

The north-western axis is focused on Hajin. The south-western axis is focused on Baghuz Fawqani. The third axis is a northern one focused on the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles) north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of Hajin.

This area represents the last population centre under ISIL's control anywhere in the World. So although the towns themselves are not densely population they are extremely heavily defended with widespread use of landmines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's). Therefore the expectation is that this will be a long and hard fight.

Despite this the SDF have made significant early progress.

In the first two days of operations on the north-western Hajin axis the SDF advance 6km (3.5 miles). In the process they liberated 10 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Of the three axis this is the one which has seen the heaviest fighting and there have been no subsequent reports of SDF advances.

On the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani axis the SDF advanced 3km (1.8 miles) liberating 10 ISIL defensive/fighting positions on the first day of operations (11/9/18). On the second day of operations (12/9/18) the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating a further 7 ISIL defensive/fighting positions.

Across all three fronts these first two days of fighting saw 6 members of the SDF killed alongside 41 ISIL fighters.

On the third day of operations (13/9/18) on the Baghuz Fawqani axis ISIL launched a counter-attack which saw the SDF pushed back 1km (0.6 miles) and lose control of 9 of the 17 fighting positions they'd gained. Over the course of the day though the SDF were able to stop and reverse the ISIL counter-attack regaining the lost ground.

This fighting saw 23 ISIL fighters killed and 20 wounded. While the SDF only saw 10 fighters wounded. Most when a Humvee struck a landmine.

On the fourth day of operations (14/9/18) the SDF reached the main ring of the town's defence liberating 5 ISIL fighting positions. During this fighting one member of the SDF was killed and another wounded.

With their defensive line under attack ISIL launched largescale attacks against the SDF on the fifth day of operations (15/9/18). This saw the SDF face waves of VBIED (motorcycle) attacks and artillery strikes. However it did not prevent them liberating a further 4 ISIL fighting positions which make up the town's defences.

Yesterday (16/9/18) - the sixth day of operations - the SDF were able to liberate 12 ISIL fighters positions. This meant that they had completely broken through ISIL's defensive line. Fighting has now moved into Baghuz Fawqani itself.

Over the first six days of operations the northern Sousse axis has been quiet. Appearing to be almost a distraction fighting there had been limited to heavy air and artillery strikes along with heavy machine gun fire.

Yesterday (16/9/18) however the Sousse axis seemed to spring into action. The SDF advanced 2km (1.2 miles) liberating 11 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Sadly 2 members of the SDF were killed in the fighting as ISIL deploy wave after wave of suicide bombers.

17:40 on 17/9/18 (UK date).





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