In terms of fighting the main action in Syria's war is currently taking place in the Shangri-La area.
As I think we all know by now Shangri-La is located in the north-west of Syria. It is essentially everything to the north-west of the Euphrates River.
The exception is a group of 10 towns stretching across roughly 35km (20 mile) along the north bank of the Euphrates. This area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The rest of the Shangri-La area is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).
The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's
Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac
Christian,
Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.
The Arab element which makes up around
50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free
Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.
The SDF also contains a small International
Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force:
Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special
Operations Forces (SOF's).
On May 1st (1/5/18) the SDF launched a new anti-ISIL operation within Shangri-La codenamed; "Operation: Round Up."
This operation began with two concurrent phases.
The first phase focused on the roughly 35km (20 mile) area on the
north bank of the Euphrates still under ISIL control. This stretches from the town of Hajin in the north down to Baghuz Tahtani in
the south, where the Euphrates enters Iraq from Syria.
Its objective was to isolate these remaining towns. Both from each other and from the Syria/Iraq border.
This was achieved by the SDF reaching the banks of the Euphrates to the
south-east of Hajin and just to the north-east of Abu Hassan on May 4th (4/5/18). Hajin
sits around 35km (20 miles) north-west of the Syria/Iraq border while
Abu Hassan sits around 8km (5 miles) south-east of Hajin.
At the same time the SDF advanced on the towns of Baghuz Tahtani and Baghuz Fawqani.
These sit adjacent to each other stretching around 6km (3 miles)
north-west of the Iraq/Syria border. By May 14th (14/5/18) the SDF had liberated Baghuz Tahtani and surrounded Baghuz Fawqani.
The second phase of Round Up which was launched at the same time focused
on clearing ISIL from desert areas to the north of the Euphrates River.
Essentially a collection of towns, villages and farms known as the Wadi
ash-Shawkh Agricultural Area. Located on the Syria/Iraq border around
240km (145 miles) north of Baghuz Tahtani on the Euphrates River.
On August 7th (7/8/18) the SDF forces who had conducted phase two of
Round Up arrived at the al-Omar Oil & Gas Field linking up with the
SDF
forces who had conducted phase one of Round Up. As a result both of the
opening phases of Round Up were declared to be at an end.
Over the night of September 10th (10/9/18) into September 11th (11/9/18) the SDF
launched the third phase of Operation: Round Up. This is focused on
liberating those 10 remaining towns on the north bank of the Euphrates
from ISIL.
These towns are all relatively small and sparsely populated.
The largest, Hajin, is only 12kmsq (7 milesq) in area containing just five main roads. It is roughly twice the size of the just the Old City district of ISIL's former de facto capital Raqqa City.
Therefore the challenge is not really the urban areas themselves but the layers of defences ISIL have built up around them.
These are made up of dug in fighting positions, trenches and tunnel networks. They are interwoven with large numbers of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) and landmines. You could almost flippantly say that the entire area is one big landmine.
This third phase of Operation Round Up is being conducted on three axis;
The north-western axis is focused on Hajin.
The south-western axis is
focused on Baghuz Fawqani.
The third axis is a northern one focused on
the town of Sousse/As-Susah. This is located around 8km (5 miles)
north-west of Baghuz Fawqani and around 12km (7 miles) south-east of
Hajin.
Of the three axis the fighting has been the heaviest and the progress slowest along the north-western Hajin axis. On account of Hajin being believed to be effectively ISIL's new de facto capital.
Despite this on the first two days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) and September 12th (12/9/18) - the SDF advanced 6km (3.5 miles). In the process they liberated 10 ISIL fighting
positions.
The next real progress of the Hajin axis did not come until September 18th (18/9/18). Here the SDF managed to advance 2km (1.2 miles) and liberate 15 fighting positions. These advances prompted an ISIL counter attack which the SDF were able to quickly absorb and repel leading to a short period of calm.
That calm was broken overnight when ISIL launched another counter attack. Again though the SDF were able to absorb and repel the attack. The following morning (19/9/18) the SDF advanced 750 metres/yards and liberated another 6 fighting positions.
While the SDF's casualties in terms of ISIL fire were light they did sustain casualties from mines and IED's. ISIL fire only succeeded in wounding 1 member of the SDF. However 2 members of the SDF were wounded in a landmine explosion and a further 3 were wounded clearing IED's from buildings. At least 3 ISIL fighters were killed during exchanges with the SDF.
Having entered the urban area of Hajin the SDF spent September 20th (20/9/18) clearing houses of 13 IED's and liberating 5 fighting positions. They also engaged ISIL in tunnel warfare sealing one ISIL tunnel and killing 2 ISIL fighters in the process.
On Friday (21/9/18) the SDF liberated 2km (1.2 miles) of tunnels and interconnected tunnels including 15 fighting positions in Hajin.
For the first five days of operations - September 11th (11/9/18) to September 15th (15/9/18) - the northern Sousse axis was extremely quiet. It seemed almost to be a distraction with fighting there limited to heavy air and artillery strikes along with
heavy machine gun fire.
On September 16th (16/9/18) though the Sousse axis sprang into life. The SDF advanced 2km (1.2 miles) liberating 11 ISIL defensive/fighting positions. Here ISIL have been making extensive use of Person Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (PBIED's) or Suicide Vests (S-Vests). Using these tactics they succeeded in killing two members of the SDF.
The Sousse axis again went quiet. However on September 23rd (23/9/18) the SDF advanced 1km (0.6 mliesq) destroying 4 ISIL tunnels and killing 8 ISIL fighters in the process.
The SDF's main progress has been made on the south-eastern Baghuz Fawqani.
On the first day of operations (11/9/18) on the axis the SDF advanced 3km (1.8 miles). Liberating 10 ISIL fighting positions.
On the second day of operations (12/9/18) on the axis the SDF advanced a further 1km (0.6) miles). In the process liberating 7 ISIL fighting positions.
The third day of operations on the axis (13/9/18) saw ISIL mount a counter attack. Initially this succeeded in pushing the SDF back 1km (0.6 miles) with the loss of 9 fighting positions. However over the course of the day the SDF were able to absorb and repel the attack regaining all the territory they had lost.
On September 14th (14/9/18) the SDF reached the main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani. They achieved this by liberating 5 ISIL fighting positions.
With their main defensive line under attack on September 15th (15/9/18) ISIL launched a largescale counter attack.
This saw them hit the SDF with waves of small Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED's) mounted on motorcycles and intense artillery and mortar barrages. However this was not sufficient to stop the SDF liberating a further 4 fighting positions.
The sixth day of operations (16/9/18) on the axis saw the SDF liberate 12 fighting positions. This meant that they had broken through the main defensive ring around Baghuz Fawqani and fighting moved into the town itself.
On September 17th (17/9/18) the SDF liberated 12 fighting positions within Baghuz Fawqani. Rather than fighting the SDF directly ISIL relied instead upon landmines and IED's.
September 18th (18/9/18) saw the SDF liberate the Boukamal Bridge.
Sitting right in the north-west corner of Baghuz Fawqani this bridge links the town with al-Ays neighbourhood of Al Boukamal/Abu Kamal on the southern bank of the Euphrates. With Abu Kamal under the control of Syrian forces having liberated the bridge the SDF promptly destroyed it to protect Baghuz Fawqani and Shangri-La from attack.
Finding themselves on the verge of losing Baghuz Fawqani entirely ISIL launched a sustained counter attack on September 19th (19/9/18). This saw them deploy at least 2 VBIED's against the SDF's positions. Those VBIED's were successfully destroyed without SDF losses and the counter attack collapsed.
ISIL launched another counter attack on September 20th (20/9/18) using VBIED's. To great comedic effect.
ISIL deployed 3 large VBIED's against SDF positions. The first was destroyed in an airstrike. The second was prematurely detonated by its operator before it reached the SDF. In the process the second VBIED blew up the third VBIED meaning the entire attack only succeeded in wounding 2 SDF fighters.
Having absorbed and repelled the ISIL attack the SDF then advanced a further 1km (0.6 miles) liberating the last remaining 12 ISIL fighting positions.
This allowed the SDF to declare Baghuz Fawqani fully liberated. On Thursday September 20th (20/9/18). The tenth day of operations.
The SDF then spent the next few days securing Baghuz Fawqani. While coming under fire from ISIL positions elsewhere.
For example on September 21st (21/9/18) ISIL attacked the now SDF fighting positions around the town with 4 PBIED's. On September 22nd (22/9/18) ISIL unsuccessfully tried to attack the SDF in Baghuz Fawqani with a small armed, commercial drone.
On September 23rd (23/9/18) alone the SDF defused 30 IED's and landmines ISIL had left littering the town.
Directly to the north of Baghuz Fawqani you have the town of al-Shalja. Directly to the north of al-Shalja you have Sousse.
So on September 24th (24/9/18) both the SDF's south-western Baghuz Fawqani axis and the SDF's northern Sousse axis turned their attention to al-Shalja. The Sousse axis advanced to the west of the town while the Baghuz Fawqani axis advanced to the east of al-Shalja.
Almost without a fight al-Shalja was liberated by the SDF yesterday. Tuesday September 25th (25/9/18).
While the SDF have been conducting the third phase of Operation: Round Up ISIL have been attempting to attack them behind their lines.
On September 18th (18/9/18) ISIL launched coordinated attacks against the SDF in Kasra and Shadaddi.
Kasra is located on the north bank of the Euphrates around 30km (20 miles) north-west of Deir-ez-Zour City and around 90km (50 miles) south-east of Raqqa City. Shadaddi is located on the Khobar River around 120km (70 miles) north-east of Deir-ez-Zour City and around 110km (65 miles) south of Hasakah City.
In Kasra the ISIL attack took the form of a roadside bomb ambush against an SDF vehicle patrol which wounded 5 members of the SDF. A further SDF fighter was wounded by sniper fire. The ISIL attack in Shadaddi took the form of a conventional ground assault on an SDF base. After a 30 minute firefight the attack was repelled.
The SDF responded by conducting security sweeps in both Kasra and Shadaddi the following day (19/9/18). This saw some small skirmishes with ISIL in both locations. In Kasra 3 members of the SDF were wounded when their vehicle struck a landmine.
This lack of success however has not stopped ISIL making some very wild claims about their victories against the SDF.
For example ISIL claim that on September 16th (16/9/18) alone they killed 8 members of the SDF in a roadside bomb ambush in Hasakah, killed 1 member of the SDF in an IED attack in Raqqa City, wounded several members of the SDF in a grenade attack in Shadaddi and destroyed an SDF tank in the Omar Oil and Gas Field.
On September 20th (20/9/18) ISIL claim they carried out a roadside bomb ambush of an SDF convoy near Shadaddi. This apparently wounded 25 and killed 15. Including American soldiers.
There is absolutely nothing to indicate that these claims are in any way true.
I should also point out that I am aware that on September 17th (17/9/18) Russia and Turkey agreed to establish an Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) within the Sudetenland area of Syria.
As I've mentioned the Sudetenland area is much larger than merely Idlib Province. It actually throws a jagged boundary around four of Syria's provinces. Although the groups operating within that area are part of the Army of Conquest coalition they do all retain their own identity, leaders and objectives.
So I really need some time to consider the implications of the DMZ plan before commenting on it further.
Annoyingly despite being announced on September 17th (17/9/18) the details only really emerged on September 21st (21/9/18). Just as I was losing mastery of my own brain.
The obvious problem with the proposal though is that it requires Al Qaeda to just magically disappear into thin air.
It is worth noting that ahead of the September 7th (7/9/18) meeting in Iran Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main objective was to allow foreign extremists to return home from Syria.
Which sounds like very bad news. Particularly if you are French.
17:45 on 26/9/18 (UK date).
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