Operation Featherweight: Month 51, Week 1, Day 7.

Within the current conflict in Syria there are five key areas;

Shangri-La, Garvaghy Road, Afrin Canton, the Sudetenland and Central Syria.

Shangri-La:

This is  under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/QSD).

The largest element of the SDF coalition is the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). They operate alongside Assyrian/Syriac Christian, Turkmen and Arab Muslim forces.

The Arab element which makes up around 50% of the SDF is comprised of both elements of the long defunct Free Syrian Army (FSA) and local tribes indigenous to north-eastern Syria.

The SDF also contains a small International Brigade made up of foreign volunteers. They are supposedly supported by the US-led coalition; Combined Joint Task Force: Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTFOIR) both with air power and Special Operations Forces (SOF's).

The Shangri-La area is essentially everything to the North-East of the Euphrates River. With the exception of a roughly 35km (20 mile) stretch of towns and villages on the north bank of the Euphrates between Hajin and Baghuz Thatani. This area remains under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Yesterday (11/9/18) the SDF announced the start of an operation to liberate Hajin. At this early stage there is little indication of what their exact strategy is or of any progress.

Garvaghy Road:

This sits directly to the west of Shangri-La where the Euphrates River enters Syria from Turkey. It's stretches roughly 100km (60 miles) from the Euphrates to the towns of Kilis/Azaz.

It was invaded by Turkey in August 2016 and remains under the illegal occupation of  the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands a coalition of Islamist armed groups known as the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF).

The dominant group within the Army of Conquest in the Garvaghy Road area is the United Turkmen Army (UTA).

The UTA are formed out of the paramilitary wing of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who are known as the Grey Wolves. Taking their brigade names from famous Ottoman Emperors such as Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror the UTA are also sometimes known as the Syrian Turkmen Brigades (STB).

The groups within Garvaghy Road operate now as simply brigades of the UTA. Under the direct command and control of Turkey.

Afrin Canton:
 
Centred around the city of Afrin this roughly 2,400kmsq (1,400 milesq) area directly borders Garvaghy Road to the west.

Historically an ethnically Kurdish area of Syria Afrin Canton has been under the control of first the YPG and then the SDF since the conflict began in 2011.

However in January 2018 Afrin Canton was invaded by Turkey and remains under the illegal occupation of the regular Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). 

As within Garvaghy Road Turkey commands the Army of Conquest coalition within Afrin Canton. With the UTA being the dominant group in the coalition.

The Sudetenland:

This area sits directly south of Afrin Canton. It is centred around the city of Idlib.

It's name refers to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland in 1938. Under the guise of a humanitarian intervention.   

As with Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton the Sudetenland is under the occupation of the Army of Conquest. 

However unlike in Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton within the Sudetenland Turkey does not officially command the Army of Conquest as part of the UTA. 

Turkey has though established a network of small TSK bases or "Control Points" across the Sudetenland.

Central Syria:

The southern border of the Sudetenland marks the start of a vast area under the control of the Syrian government. It really includes all parts of the country which are not otherwise designated. I would refer to it simply as; "Syria" only that would cause more confusion by implying the other areas are not part of Syria.

On August 2nd (2/8/18) the Syrians declared victory in an operation to expand the Central Syria area to include the area around the Yarmouk River Basin in the south-west of the country.

Since then Syrian forces have been massing on the southern boundary of the Sudetenland in preparation of an offensive to liberate the area.
 
This looming Syrian operation has been met with some considerable international opposition.

On Friday (7/9/18) the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran met to discuss the upcoming operation in Iran. Turkish President/Prime Minister/Emperor Recep Tayyip Erdogan used this meeting to prevent the operation taking place. While the leaders of Russia and Iran used the meeting to support the operation.

How that meeting went for Erdogan can really be summed up by an exchange he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a televised press conference prior to the start of the meeting.

Erdogan called for a ceasefire across the entire Sudetenland region including both ISIL and Al Qaeda. Putin responded that it would not be possible to discuss such a thing because neither ISIL nor Al Qaeda were present at the meeting.

Erdogan then suggested they quickly contact Al Qaeda and ISIL to include them in the meeting. Giving the impression that Erdogan has the leaders of both Al Qaeda and ISIL on speed dial.

Although he was extremely isolated in the meeting with Russia and Iran Erdogan did enjoy support from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Under the Presidency of the US the UNSC called a special meeting on Syria for September 7th (7/9/18). To coincide with the trilateral meeting taking place in Iran.

Erdogan also enjoys deep support from Staffan de Mistura. The supposedly impartial UN Special Envoy on Syria.

Staffan de Mistura scheduled meetings with the Army of Conquest groups operating in the Sudetenland in Geneva, Switzerland yesterday (11/9/18). He also scheduled meetings between Turkey, Russia and Iran at the UN Headquarters in New York City, US for the same day.

This time Russia called a UNSC meeting on Syria to coincide with the meetings de Mistura had called. The thinking seeming to be that getting everyone to meet in New York City on September 11th might help Erdogan's supporters see the error of their ways.

Staffan de Mistura also intends to hold meetings with Egypt, France, Germany Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Britain and the US on September 14th (14/9/18).

Abandoning any pretence of impartiality de Mistura's objective behind this week of meetings is to defend the Sudetenland by pumping the breaks on Syria's operation. His calculation being that the operation will not be launched during the two week United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) which begins on September 18th (18/9/18).

In drawing up this plan de Mistura seems to have forgotten when Russia launched its military operations in Syria. During the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) of 2015.

The nations which support Erdogan on the annexation of the Sudetenland are easy to spot.

They're the ones who claimed they believe Britain's blaming of the Skripal poisoning on Russia on September 5th (5/9/18). In a statement of support released before the UNSC breifing on the matter.

They're also the exact same nations who promised to attack Syria if Chemical Weapons were used in the Sudetenland on August 22nd (22/8/18). Despite there being no suggestion that Chemical Weapons would be used.

Unfortunately just as these nations were putting their plan into motion they discovered that they do not enjoy widespread support. As a result things have gotten a little bumpy and a fair few tantrums have been thrown as they come to terms with the fact they are actually the isolated extremists.

This is particularly true of Britain and France. Their decision to promote terrorist propaganda in support of the Sudetenland triggered lonewolves to conduct stabbing attacks against them. On September 8th (8/9/18) and September 9th (9/9/18) respectively.   

These bungled efforts to halt or delay the Syrian operation makes clear to me that Erdogan's supporters really have no understanding of the situation in the Sudetenland. 

Not least because the refer to the area as; "Idlib" and talk about an; "All Out Offensive." In an effort to compare the situation to the operation in the winter of 2016 to liberate just the eastern side of Aleppo City.

The Sudetenland is certainly much larger than the eastern side of Aleppo City. It is much larger than Idlib City. It is larger even than Idlib Province.

The Northern boundary of the Sudetenland is really the; "Atmeh-Salwa Access Area." This stretches from a TSK base in the town of Atmeh at the base of Ghazal Mountain on the border with Turkey in the west to another TSK base in the Rashadin District of Aleppo City in the east. A distance of around 30km (20 miles).

The TSK base at Atmeh is within Idlib Province. However with Aleppo City being the capital of Aleppo Province the TSK base in the Rashadin District is most certainly in Aleppo Province. 

The Eastern boundary of the Sudetenland stretches south from the TSK base in Rashadin District to a TSK base in Lataminah. A distance of around 105km (60 miles).

Sitting around 20km (13 miles) north-west of Hama City - the capital of Hama Province - Lataminah is firmly within Hama Province.

The Southern boundary of the Sudetenland continues across Hama Province from the TSK base at Lataminah to Qalat Madiq. Adjacent to the Ancient City of Apamea. A distance of around 25km (15 miles). However this line is jagged so the town of Kernaz is under Syrian control while the town of Kafr Zita is not.

The South-Western boundary of the Sudetenland runs from Qalat Madiq to a point in the al-Ziyarah subdistrict just south-west of the Zeyzoun reservoir. Also in Hama Province. A distance of around 35km (20 miles). 

The North-Western boundary of the Sudetenland stretches from al-Ziyarah subdistrict to the Syria/Turkey border within the Firinlik Forest. Specifically at Ardash Dagh Mountain. A distance of around 35km (20 miles).

Firinlik Forest and Ardash Dagh Mountain sit within Syria's Latakia Province.

All told the Sudetenland covers around 5,000kmsq (3,000milesq). Spread across four Syrian provinces.

In that area you have more than 30 cities, towns or other key population centres. 

Most notably Idlib City, the capital of Idlib Province. Jisr al-Shugour around 30km (20 miles) south-east of Ardash Dagh Mountain. Al-Eis on the eastern boundary around 30km (20 miles) south of Aleppo City. Saraqib around 25km (15 miles) south-west of al-Eis. Lataminah, Morek, Kafr Zita and Khan Sheikhoun on the southern boundary.

There are also the villages of Foua and Kafraya. Despite being just 10km (6 miles) outside the centre of Idlib City these villages have remained loyal to the Syrian government throughout the conflict. Their residents have been held hostage despite numerous agreements to free them.

Alongside the formal population centres the Sudetenland is also home to around a dozen camps for Internally Displaced People (IDP). Some run by terror groups. However the majority of these are located close to the northern boundary of the Sudetenland. In and around the Atmeh-Salwa Access Area and the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey.

Separating this populated areas you have vast unpopulated areas such as farms and scrubland. Under the laws of war it is in these areas the occupiers are obligated to make their stand.

In short the Sudetenland is too large to liberate in a single all out offensive. 

If for no other reason than necessity different areas will have to come under attack at different times. It is standard practice for the Syrians to establish humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee areas of fighting. 

If the occupiers break with their usual policy and actually allow people to use those humanitarian corridors it should be very easy for civilians to avoid the majority of the fighting.

So the Erdogan supporters who are warning of an; "All Out Offensive in Idlib" are even lying to you about that.  

At around 17:30 on 12/9/18 (UK date) I will pick this up later. Probably tomorrow.

Edited at around 16:00 on 13/9/18 (UK date) to add;

The Sudetenland is currently under the occupation of the Army of Conquest/Jaish al-Fatah (JAF) coalition.

The largest faction, particularly in the Sudetenland, is Al Qaeda/The Base. Their affiliate within Syria is known as Jabhat al-Nusra/The Support Front. Given their high public profile I hope I don't need to explain further who Al Qaeda are.

The second sizable faction with the Army of Conquest are the Army of Islam/Jaish al-Islam (JAI). They are a particularly vicious group who consider ISIL to be far too moderate and have executed members of ISIL accordingly.

The Army of Islam committed genocide against Syria's Druze population in the Golan Heights area in 2015. They also attempted to commit a further genocide against the Druze in the Golan Heights in 2017 but were stopped. 

While occupying east Aleppo City the Army of Islam routinely used Chemical Weapons against the SDF. Something the Army of Islam have openly admitted to.

The Army of Islam presence in the Sudetenland has increased significantly following their retreat their after the liberation of East Ghouta. While occupying East Ghouta the Army of Islam placed civilians in cages and put them on roof tops to act as human shields against airstrikes.

The third sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Army of Glory/Jaish al-Izza (AoG). They were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. This saw them receive anti-tank weapons such as the 9K11 Fagot and the BGM-71 TOW. Along with Man Portable Air Defence (MANPAD) systems such as the 9K38 Iglas and the Mistral.

The fourth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of Nour al-Din al-Zinki/Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki (Nour al-Zinki). As with the Army of Glory they were part of the US' Train & Equip program under former President Obama. Receiving anti-tank weapons such as the BGM-71 TOW.

Nour al-Zinki retreated to the Sudetenland following the liberation of the eastern side of Aleppo City. There they were famous for beheading children, executing homosexuals by throwing them from tall buildings and kidnapping journalists for sale to ISIL.

The fifth sizable faction within the Army of Conquest are the Movement of the Freemen of the Levant/Harakat Ahrar ar-Sham al-Islamiyya (Ahrar al-Sham). However their influence in the Sudetenland has decreased as the Army of Islam's has increased.

The Army of Conquest also includes the UTA along with small fragments of the long defunct FSA such as the 1st Coastal Division. Although as within Garvaghy Road and Afrin Canton these now function as effectively brigades of the UTA.

There is also a small ISIL presence in the Sudetenland under the formal protection of the Army of Conquest. 

As journalists have been visiting the Sudetenland the Army of Conquest have been making a big show of arresting suspected members of ISIL. However they seem to simply be moderate rivals. Known members of ISIL keep turning up within the ranks of the Army of Conquest. 

Certainly since the start of the Astana Process on Syria the presence of Al Qaeda within the Army of Conquest has been a significant issue. There has long been a question of whether ceasefires which exclude Al Qaeda also exclude their partners in the Army of Conquest coalition.

This has led to a long process of giving the impression that Al Qaeda is not a member of the Army of Conquest.

One part of this process has involved Al Qaeda in Syria changing their name from; "The Support Front/Jabhat al-Nusra to; "The Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)."

The second part of the process has involved the other elements of the Army of Conquest referring to themselves as; "The Front for the Liberation of Syria/Jabhat Tahrir al-Suriya (JTS)."

Obviously the difference between HTS and JTS was not clear enough to convince anyone. 

So on August 1st (1/8/18) the JTS element of the Army of Conquest announced they would be referring to themselves as; "The National Liberation Front/Jabhat Tahrir al-Watania (JTW). This is widely seen as a precursor to them being formally absorbed into the UTA.

The division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest exists only on paper.

In October 2017 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. Along with ISIL they launched a joint offensive alongside ISIL. By March 2018 this saw them lose control of the entire al-Hass Plateau which until then had made up the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland.

In mid-March 2018 Al Qaeda and the JTS element of the Army of Conquest again forgot that they supposed to be convincing everyone they were separate groups. They launched the combined; "Wrath of Ghouta" offensive in a effort to continue their occupation of East Ghouta by dividing Syria's forces. That offensive was repelled in the space of about a day.

As recently as last week senior Al Qaeda figures have been openly discussing the longstanding plan for them to be formally absorbed into the UTA.

With there being no division between Al Qaeda and the wider Army of Conquest it is simply not possible to say which areas of the Sudetenland are under Al Qaeda occupation and which are not.

However broadly speaking you can draw a diagonal line from the Zeyzoun reservoir to Aleppo City. Everything to the North-West of that line is under absolute Al Qaeda control. The areas to the South-East of the line are under the control of the wider Army of Conquest.

There is a small pocket of Nour al-Zinki around Aleppo City which they used to occupy. Likewise much of the eastern boundary of the Sudetenland, such as Saraqib, is under absolute Al Qaeda control. The southern boundary around Lataminah, Morek, Kafr Zita and Khan Sheikhoun is primarily under the control of the Army of Glory and Ahrar al-Sham.   

Then there is the town of Jisr al-Shugour. This was captured by the Army of Conquest in the spring of 2015 in a coordinated, joint offensive with ISIL. The Army of Conquest seized Jisr al-Shugour while ISIL seized Palmyra.

Jisr al-Shugour is currently under the occupation of the Turkistan Islamist Party (TiP). Rather than being a Syrian affiliate they are original 9/11-era Al Qaeda. 

Ethnically Turkish their focus is creating an Islamic State in the area they consider Turkistan. This is made up of China's Xinjiang Province and the nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The TiP were recently responsible for the killing of two American along with one Swiss and one Dutch tourists in Tajikistan. The government of Tajikistan quickly blamed the attack on their political rivals and their Iranian backers. However as the 2017 Reina Nightclub attack showed there is a persistent problem of Chinese Islamists travelling to Syria on genuine Tajik and Krgyzk passports.

In preparation for a Sudetenland offensive Erdogan apologists Human Rights Watch (HRW) have suddenly decided to take up the TiP's cause by focusing on China's treatment of ethnically Turkish Muslim in Xinjiang Province. 

17:35 on 13/9/18 (UK date).